Who is the Best Classic Tetris Player in the Super Killscreen Era?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.ย. 2024
- The 2023 Classic Tetris World Championships are happening this weekend with a new Super Killscreen at Level 39. Who is most likely to win the title?
Thank you to Marfram for addition research and stat gathering!
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Made this video on a mega time crunch while already out of town. 😅 But kept the streak alive of 5 straight years of CTWC preview videos! Best of luck to all the competitors this weekend.
Great job as always. Hope you and Eunha are doing well. Can't make it to NYC hangout, but hopefully see you sometime soon.
Btw Luis won against Alex T in the community tournament! He's getting really scary.
Good job, David! This was fun to watch :)
Wait is sidnev a boy or a girl cause im confused. (If sidnev is reading this, sorry if this is offensive)
@@liamtoystube3744 Why does that matter? What will you do with that information?
I think stats are amazing to predict who will win, but i think some players who might have not played in many tournaments could have their stats not show their true abilities
I wonder who you could possibly be referring to :P Yeah totally, we had a lot more data to look at this year so almost all of the field was reasonably accurate but there's always the potential for inaccuracy or blind spots with players who have small sample sizes or improved very quickly in recent months. In your case it mainly seems like bad luck with how your performances in the 3 CTM events this year turned out compared to CTL and CTW, but that's probably going to even out over time (and hopefully by next year, there will be more comprehensive stats on events beyond CTM to be able to include!)
This aged amazingly well 😂🎉
Hi new WR owner!
hello!
Congrats on crashing the game!
Woah, that's really unfortunate Tommy, Luis, and Tristop can't make it. They have some pretty insane stats.
Luis has a very bright future. Nobody better sleep on this young man. He's truly an up-and-comer. Unfortunate that he may not be able to do in-person tournaments since he's from Brazil. We'll see.
And Gerald :( Gerald’s been more consistently impressive than Luis and tristop
@@mobus1603 Luis is from Portugal
@@hydrantdude504 Sorry, I knew he spoke Portuguese, but wrong Portuguese speaking country--my bad.
~COMMENT PRESERVED SO THE REPLIES MAKE SENSE~
hey Kosmic, how are you doing you absolute legend
If Dog can win another title, this time with rolling and in person, that would be impressive. Would be the first person to win the title with 2 different playstyles.
I would've prefer Joseph to do that. His stacking was better than Dog's.
@@QwDragon how do u know
@@lancestewart6447 I remember them playing together.
@@QwDragon but how are u evaluating their stacking?
@@QwDragon I'm pretty sure dog (and at least a few other players) are better stackers now than Joseph ever was. Even if you gave Joseph world-class rolling, I think there would be at least 5-10 players in the world who are favorites against him. Joseph is a legend, but stacking has developed a lot since Joseph stopped playing.
I would LOVE to see players like Koryan, Joseph, Jeff, and Green tea duel it out Saturday night.
If it's DAS it will probably be guys like PixelAndy, Sharky, and NGCMan LOL
Bruh did Blue Scuti really rise to prominence that fast?
that’s exactly what i was thinking! crazy to think he wasn’t in what people thought was the big 13 and yet he was the first to get a kill screen
Ya he had some really bad live performances which he’s been able to work through
It seems like you underestimated Fractal 😂
Wdym he had a 99 percent to win
@@ShotigotGame You misunderstood that. There is a 50% that the top 3 win, and 99% chance that one of the top 13 including Fractal, win. So if equalized, each of the top 3 had like a 16.6% chance of winning each. Next is 35/4, or the next 4 has a 8.75% chance each. Then 14/6, the next 6 has a 2.3% chance of winning each. The rest of the field outside of the top 13 combined has a 1% chance of winning.
I will root for the "E15". The E stands for Europeans and 15 = 5 + 5 + 5, which in roman numerals is V + V + V... danV, sidneV and sV
This is our year !!!!!
If we're playing that game, I'm rooting for NA🐚110, because I'd like to see another fractal v ericICX match
E15 for the win!
Rooting for an asian underdog from china to come in and surprise the whole tetris scene
@@nycReachingfractal *161*
Actually super hyped to see some old faces in the legends tournament
Fractal had a fair median score of 1,434,400 throughout all CTWC matches.
That sounds right, he was incredible all weekend!
Having watched a lot of CTM, Eric is great at scaling which is going for singles and doubles at level 29 and higher, which is why he won last year, but he isn’t as good as the others in the top 10 at scoring Tetrises at these levels. I feel the super killscreen will hurt him most. Still excited to see what he and all of the players will be able to do this year!
Exactly my view Eric did NOT want to see the Super Kill Screen and you can add Fractal to that as well
@@mattembury215fractals adapted a lot better than Eric has
@@mattembury215fractal was literally the biggest advocate for the super kill screen for the past 2 years lol. You do not know what you are taking about
@@arhithdharanendra5053 well it backfired on him then.. he has a losing record in super kill screen matches, just is not aggressive enough. That's why Dog is a heavy favorite to win number three.. I would be shocked if either Fractal or Eric come anywhere close to the final. Both of them played with house money the entire tournament last year by not topping out, the pressure of having to perform will buckle both of them.
Remember under the gun in the previous two CTWCs, both Fractal and Eric fell apart, the deck was not stacked in their favor then, like it won't be this year.
Dog is my pick to win it all. My top 5 are Dog, Fractal, Sidnev, Alex T, and Rhubarb
Yeah, when Dog gets in da zone he is pretty unstoppable in tournaments.
Good ngc, let the bald vegetable flow within you
I think you can take him in DAS
I was also thinking after Fractal's legendary run: Which has been the hardest CTWC win ever? I used to say Joseph's run in 2018 defeating Harry (World Champion), Koryan (one of the best in the world), and sweeping Jonas Neubauer (7 time world champion) was by far the "hardest" run. However after Fractal's run this year, I might possibly change my opinion: sweeping Andy (arguably the greatest player without a CTWC win yet), sweeping Dog (2-time world champion), and reverse sweeping Sydnev (one of the best players in the world at the moment). However, if we compare a fair median score or even a median score, there's a clear bias towards the most recent championships as players have become more consistent and rolling has led to much higher scores. There should be a metric that erases this bias and therefore makes a fair comparison. Just an idea for a video in a future, what are your thoughts?
Cool idea
I cant wait to see Cobalt unveil the new 'wiggler' strategy at this years CTWC!
I think it might just give him the edge he needs to win it all!
You had to mention Jonas. You just had to. Thank you, now I'm crying again.
I think a useful 3rd stat to take into account would be some kind of weighting based on score trend over time, so whether a particular score is more recent or older.
For example Huff, with respect, is definitely not on a rising trend, while on the other hand, Myles is.
Also, players behind Fractal or Doge can easily be excluded, feels like they mostly made it to the video simply as honorable mentions.
My personal bets are for Dog, followed by Alex, followed by Myles.
"with respect"
Damn, you did Huff dirty. 😶
Man... How I wish Jonas was alive to see this...
Well it's a good thing you at least included Fractal 😂
None of them.
It was Blue Scutti (for now).
Fractal won the tournament he's talking about
@7:45 I'm old! :) I cant wait
That’s a lot of videos in a small period, good quality as always!
Always enjoy this video's, your consistent situational awareness is always refreshing
Oof, those typos NotLikeThis
And now, Alex T is officially a CTWC champion.
The big 13 are so scary! Fitting that CTWC starts on Friday the 13th!
SHEEEEESH NEW VIDEO day before CTWC
I'm excited for that Legends Tourney. I dearly miss that era of CTWC.
Instead of guessing who might win, what if we did a whole tournament of guessing... a round of qualifications, and a full bracket 1v1 where people guess the winner. All joking aside, maybe a fans choice award before the tournament...
Tetris Fantasy league? ;)
@@jonaswolterstorff3460tetris sports betting???????
Oh that would actually be fun, and funny...
Lol. It's time to call up Draft Kings and get in on that sweet sweet E betting scene.
I'm rooting for all the non-American players, especially Sidnev, although the CTWC has expanded a lot since the beginning, it still feels very NA-centric. I think a non-American World Champion could do a lot for visibilty in countries other than the USA.
We have that, it's CTM
TommyNTG would be the favourite to win according to the median score and F29%. Shame.
Agreed. Tommy just shows up from time to time, wrecks shit like it’s no big deal, and disappears again… cold as ice in those shades too 😎
Yeah he’s so good at tetrising post 29, no one else is as good at building center wells
if miles can win i think he could really blow up the scene. ill be rooting for him
Will he even qualify, he has never figured the maxout format and his hail mary strategy does NOT work well in the format.
@@mattembury215 What do you mean? He's going nuts in competition recent months.
well this aged VERY well
Love a good gamescout analysis!
I have to work this weekend but I hope I'll be able to catch as much of ctwc as possible. Also, it's so interesting to see how the super killscreen changed the leaderboard, since both Eric and Fractal were real marathon players so it's no wonder they were in the finals last year.
Roligt att se detta! Missade ju det i verkligheten, men jag vet ju lite om vad har hänt sen... 😊
Ser fram emot nästa del!
A little late, but sudden death brackets are notorious for picking of top players and teams. Round robin eliminations are fairer, but tend to generate more boring playoffs. (One bad performance isnt enough to wipe out a top player.)
The 99% chance is the only one you can really rely on, because the variance is crazy high.
You know things are getting crazy when Eric is ranked last 😂😂
Hyped for this weekend!!! Let’s goooooooooo
I think this is mostly due to the level 39 killscreen. I know it would take longer, but I really hope they continue to run OG Classic Tetris Tournaments somewhere. Hour long marathons between the top players would be epic even if it is just once a year.
Ctm is doing this in November (hopefully going to become once a year "no cap November")
I didn't know that, that is awesome!
@@coalbucket9383
Looks like you forgot someone
Hello i really like all your data analysis research. But i would like to really know is who are the most consistent players before lvl29. Because it shows (in my opinion) brain capacity and not control agility. Is there any stat like that. Which means MFS before 29. Because sometimes you can encounter very smart people that do not have mechanical abilities, that is why a lot of football managers were not great football players. I think this would be a good indicator for comparing generations.
another amazing video! without music the video feels super serious XD
Will the vods be uploaded anywhere and how quickly would it be?
Same question
All the stats don't account for the most important factor:
Whether players are distracted or energized by playing in front of a loud crowd and commentators getting into their heads.
That factor alone can dramatically alter the fate of any player at a live event like CTWC.
This is exactly why Eric won CTWC 2022.
In 2019 I think the commentators actually intentionally disturbed competitors and affected the matches
Loving watching these videos! I'm a pokemon player mostly, but love all things gaming history and your videos tell such great stories!
I think, you did really good last year, I mean you basically only predicted that one of the big 6 will probably win and that happened :)
I personally think, alex and dog are favorite.
Scout you left out the most important stat:
Early 1990s me - gets tetris on NES and gameboy. Cool this is an amazing game to play with my TWO hands.
CTWC post DAS/HT Era: Rolling... ? How many limbs do ppl use to play Tetris? THREE.
Limb count stat to play a game.
TETRIS FOR JONAS
these are stats really make some great hype before the tournament! after watching quals I can really see what you mean by anyone can take it, since so many lesser known players for such high seeds! I mean, dog wasn’t even in the top 10!
Man the kids really changed and stole this from the old people lol. So cool to watch
These videos are great for us to get an idea of how players could potentially perform, but for making a case for a player to win the entire thing, I think there's a factor that everyone talks about in every sport but it is impossible to quantify: the alpha.
The player that in clutch moments handles the pressure, handles the crowd, and shines in the main stage. Fractal has this "alpha", that's why even if he wasn't a favorite to win the CTWC, he made an historic run to win the golden J trophy. Congrats to him!
Yeah, what's funny is this concept is talked about in the community a lot, but there's no consensus on who has it. Last year virtually no one expected Eric to win the title, yet afterwards many attributed his ability to clutch up and focus in person as a reason he won. Then he hasn't won an in-person event since. This year I heard several people predict dog was going to win, for the "alpha" reasons you were describing, and afterwards people switched to saying Fractal was the one with it. The biggest factor honestly seems to be who practices the hardest & the smartest.
@@aGameScout Fractal seems to get his moment when he plays in-person tournaments. His third game against Andy was absolutely astonishing, he got tetrises in 29 like they were nothing, and despite being down 0-2 against Sidnev (an extremely tough opponent), he didn't give up and got the comeback.
Last year it just seemed like Eric would not top out, he was too consistent and his strategy of surviving as long as possible and making chasedowns worked out. Anyways, I'm a big Fractal fan so I'm happy he won the whole thing.
Also shoutout to my CTG captain Rahmations, another top roller who isn't able to come. Since all the stats are collected from CTM, the stats presented in these videos are heavily focused on CTM regulars, so players who don't play CTM as much tend to get left out of this discussion.
Im betting on Jeff.
Wow the top players changes every month
I don’t even play Tetris but I love all of your videos! A few questions from my inner nerd:
Is fair median a common statistic?
(Possibly irrelevant if the former is not true) Are fair medians derived per use case?
I know it's unlikely but I hope meme somehow wins CTWC this year. Her stacking style is very fun to watch.
simp
memes not attending ctwc this year sadly :(
Completely random thought that's been rolling around in my head for a while: what if there was a World Cup of Classic Tetris, as distinct from the World Championships, where there was one player from each country seeking to represent their nation?
It could be cool, I've loved seeing non-American representatives at CTWC (even as an American myself!) so I'd love to see something like this.
The problem, though, is that so many top players are American, so you'd have to make the decision to either:
a) only allow one American player into this World Cup, which would be fair but would cut out a lot of top talent, or
b) split the US up into regions (California, New England, the South, etc.) and have the top players from each region play on equal footing, which would enable a lot more interesting players to compete, but which might be seen as unfair to the other nations.
Idk what do you all think? Also, great video Scout! Can't wait for CTWC!
That's the idea I could support. Basing on numbers, it could work well even if we would divide US into specified states. It's the biggest country in the scene after all.
What if there was a tournament for each country before WCOT so they can decide which is the best player
@@ChrisFORYST oh hey there Mr. Foryst, great to see you like my idea! how do you think we could split up the US to allow all the top players to compete? honestly from what I’ve seen, California and Texas could carry the weight on their own, then maybe you could have the South, New England, the Midwest, the Southwest… An extra challenge is coming up with flags for all these regions that don’t have one already (especially coming up with one for the South that isn’t the flag of the Confederate States hahah)
@@TheRealVenusian I would have that fluid with each edition deciding number of "slots" for each region basing on activity, numbers and results of players from it in the previous year. If there would be 64 slots, then likely 32-40 would be for the American players (plus all unused slots by other countries because host). For more details, I would need to conduct way more research. I did it couple times as a whatif but the idea was always turned down.
Best of luck on repeating getting into bracket, Scout!
After the fact, all but 2 of the big 13 made it to the top 16, further, 10 made it to the top 13. The only 3 on the top 13 that were not featured here were Scuti, Opaux and K-Poke.
Blue scuti is broken xd 13yo, he will be master of Tetris
xd? is this 2010?
I didn't know that Luis is so freaking good!
Rreeaallyy looking forward to the legends tournament... If Jonas was still with us, I think we all know it'd be his for the taking
Oh boy new video!
So pumped!!!
The hype is on! 👏🏻
It would be cool to have an ELO rating list like in chess.
Is Joseph participating this year?
Would love to see Joseph as a secret special guest in the legends tourney
@@chevon5707 he was never using das, or was he?
Really love the lengend class! Hope I could see Quaid, Jeff, Buco, Harry, and so many other vets!!
I believe all four of them will be there but Harry isn’t playing
Quaid unfortunately won’t be there, but Jeff and Buco will, and Harry will be commentating
Will Greentea/Koryan join?
@@aGameScoutwhy is the mayor of maxout city not playing :(
@@majkati69 Harry’s been retired for 3 years
Blue scuti going to go and ruin all these predictions rn be like
Nice. Might wanna avoid using a '+' when you define FMS. '&'?
True, good catch
I appreciate that sometimes marfram submits their name reversed, just to see if anyone notices.
How was Fractal not a favorite to win the Championship?
He hadn’t performed nearly as well as the others at the top in the Masters Events and Live Regionals all year. His CTWC performance was a surprise
2023 was a bad year for him pre CTWC
Sidnev seems like a pretty dangerous player. My money is on him to win.
sidnev uses she/her pronouns
@@lizzhao6626 but he's male so normal people will still call him as such
Tetris and GeoGuessr World Cups on the same weekend and I dont have time to watch. FeelsBadMan.
You had my love at "Why use median instead of average though?"
The median its most representative, average is sensible to extreme performances
Both from the stats and observationally I would say that:
Dog seems the most consistently strong player shown by his FMS and F29%, and also has that clutch factor which stats can't capture so would be the overall favourite
Alex T seem to have the highest ceiling, as shown by how many of the top scores in this era are from him and in particular his performance in mega masters
There are a further ~10 players who are capable of winning any given tournaments (broadly aligned to your list but should probably include others e.g. TommyNTG)
TommyNTG was mentioned at the end of the video
Yeah unfortunately tommy won’t be there
What happened to Joseph? Did he stop playing?
Yes he did stop playing.
7:22 "couldn't make it" huh?
is that really true for Gerald?
yes
For Gerald he really doesn’t care, he’s a Chad like that
I would love to see Sidnev win CTWC this year, or even just one CTM. She is my favourite player to watch by far and is due for a big win.
He is good but I have a feeling he will never win a CTCW
I haven't kept up much with the meta. If you don't roll, can you compete at the top level?
There are fewer than 5 players who have ever made 100 lines on 29 without rolling, and I think the only one who is at CTWC is alex T who is rolling anyway. 100 lines on 29 now is just required to be able to reach the new super killscreen so the chance of a non roller winning overall is really low, relies on opponents not being on form
Yeah the only tapper that could ever keep up with rollers was Alex but now he’s rolling too. No tapper that will be at ctwc has any real chance of making it past the second round, I would say
Nope, sadly. CTWC should ban rolling to keep things fair smh
@@majkati69What? How about people should evolve and improve if they want to compete?
Rolling isn't even that hard to learn. I'm 35 and it took me all of 2 weeks to get it down. There is nothing unfair about it.
@@jakel7213 (it was a joke)
From a statisticians POV this choice of "advanced tetris stats" don't really make any sense. They have very little (if any) predictive ability. I am sure a comparison of your predictions with the results of this years tournament will illuminate this (aside from false positives).
Now that it's after the tournament, it seems to me that the biggest problem was actually the incomplete data set. Scout only analysed games from the CTM ME instead of all tetris matches. For a concrete example of a misprediction, Scout's sheet tells us that Scuti is an unremarkable player, while the Elo chart says he's comparable to the Dengler(aka Noah) who Scout ranked 11th. The thing is, Scuti's performace on CTM ME is much worse than his overall (Win% is ~35% on CTM ME and 62.5% overall). Elo also ranked Fractal a lot higher that Scout. So, would you be interested in telling us why you think it's the stats themselves that are problematic?
@@Nickps fractal being a "low tier" (among top players) when he was the the runner up at last years event should have indicated how poor the predictive power of the stats are.
for example, the frequency of getting to level 29 across top players is not indicative of anything, it can only distinguish "top player vs non stop player", it cannot really distinguish across top players.
meaningful (skill predictive) stat should include some kind of "differential". a players efficiency also ought to be taken into account. something like "average tetris percent differential". this will show how much more efficient a player is than their opponents. it also has built in that it accounts for early topouts. can be refined to "average tetris percent differential when both players score above 1 million" to exclude lower tier games.
@@mattkoster9311 The idea that Fractal's low placement was an indicator that the ranking was wrong because he was the runner up makes no sense. The same argument could be made about EricICX too but his consistency is lower this year for the reasons explained in the video and his performance in the tournament is telling. Fractal's placement was still wrong, but not because he was the runner up last year. (For example, Fractal being above Huff and Myles in Elo was a good indicator that something was up.)
Anyway, I now agree with you on F29% being a bad stat. The implicit assumption seems to be that everyone plays at the same efficiency pre 29 which makes no sense. It's possible that Scout overestimated the importance of post 29 play in a way that would have been more appropriate before the line cap was introduced. He provides justification in the video about how reaching 29 increases the Win% though, so it's understandable where the idea came from.
Finally, on the differential point, wouldn't a (possibly fair) median score differential make more sense than an average tetris rate differential? After all, the tetris rate stat ignores the level score multiplier and therefore can't account for the fact that being efficient at the later levels matters more than in the earlier levels.
By the way, since you used the word efficiency, it has an established definition in classic tetris. It is the points per line assuming level0 scoring. It is essentially a generalization of the tetris rate stat that also takes into account the fact that e.g. a triple is more efficient than a double + a single. It's functionally equivalent to the intuitive defintion of efficiency (the tetris rate) but there's no harm in mentioning it. In my opinion this is the stat that should be used everywhere the tetris rate is used today.
I just hope everyone that plays has fun.
I think it’s Andy’s year
Blue scuti!!!!
Just out of curiosity, would you qualify for the Legends Tournament?
So, Cheez isn't a top player? He did come up with the rolling playstyle, after all.
He's retired from competition for now. His last event was November 2022.
He was the innovator but others have taken it and ran with it. James Naismith invented Basketball but that doesn't mean he his competing for the 2023 NBA title.
Actually Naismith had a LOSING record as a coach
@@aGameScoutWDYM by that? Do you mean he isnt playing in the ctwc, or that you just dont have the date to measure him
What happened to cheez? Wasnt he the one who invented rolling?
Players only get one chance to win the championship, PixelAndy, Huff, Eric and Alex T will never win a title. It's like making the WSOP ME final table, you get one chance to win. Someone did make back to back FTs but still finished short
Huff going to the Portland? He not figures in the Attendace List
Not everyone who's going put themselves on that list.
it should be a big 14 for you scout!
I wanna see sidnev win so baddd
wyfsi
All that analysis and didn't mention Blue Scuti once. Kinda sad
Great preview, thanks for this!
Behold, modernised classic tetris. Do other ancients have these deep stats?
Holy cow
Thank you, aGS
So when are the finals and semi finals
The full schedule is on the CTWC website.
On Sunday,
Semis are at 1:45 PM PDT
Finals are at 3:30 PM PDT.
Note: Times are estimates and are subject to change.
personally i’m rooting for Eric, Sidnev, Huff, and Myles.
Alex T ON THE TOP HE IS THE BEST IN THE WORLD AND HE IS SAFE AND SOUND WITH RVRRYONE GOTTA WATCH OUT
The problem with Alex T is that his performance in IRL is not good than online
@@davidleandrodambrosio6355 No he won CTWC just 2 days ago.
You? It must be aGameScout
Gerald
I want Myles to win because then I can claim that I've beaten a world champ
While I normally agree with you Gamescout, Stacka can’t do it here. Dog is going to cruise to his third CTWC title this weekend. The play he consistently shows from 29 to 38 is far above any of the other contenders listed. But that’s why the tournament takes place, to disprove the experts. Have a blast friend!- Stackataka1982
how wrong could you be more than this?
@@simoz78 He's still no. 2 in the world, more than a threat
SIDNEV!!! You got this!!!