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You can tell how his experience of Reganomics was very different than most people in the way that he describes it in glowing terms. Most people I know who lived through reganomics describe a period of grinding economic difficulty and political uncertainty during the cold war.
Late 70’s born GenX’er here. I was raised at my Grandmother’s hip as my secondary caregiver. She lived an immigrant childhood, survived WW2 & The Depression, and greatly influenced my understanding of the world. I’m grateful to have had that link to the past. I’m 9 years older than my closest 1st and 2nd cousins (all Millennials). At family gatherings as a child I participated in discussions with the adults of the WW2 Generation and Boomers. At home, I was outside doing physical play unsupervised by adults until dusk. We solved our own problems. GenX is the quiet glue holding this whole thing together. Millennials better get ready because I think we’re about to live some of the times my Grandparents told me about.
Yes I agree. We are about to hit hard times. Its looking like X is starting to speak up. I feel that X is kind of a compromise between the logic (boomer) and emotion (millenial). Maybe X will be able to help us through these rough times ahead without totally destroying ourselves. One can hope.
@@noflexzone2.055 True, brother, I'm hitching on to your generation. You can do it. Sorry to have dumped it all on you. But a few old men will be helping, you can count on that.
Gen X is perfectly prepared for the 4th Turning. At every stage of our lives, it was the worst time to be alive for that particular generation. We're as hard as steel and will be the only ones prepared for the collapse. We're also the final generation that knows how to use tools. 70% of millennials do not know how to change a lightbulb - never forget that.
Our elders too the high era and demolished it. They should be scorned and mocked. They are the turning that start offering their children to moloch. Millennials should destroy every single idol Boomers have held dear.
I'm in my early 60,s. The older I get the smarter my grandfather was when he was still here and giving me advice. When I was in my 30,s I may have questioned some of his thoughts ,but I have realized in many cases he was very wise.
You all nailed it. As a spiritual being, introvert, and 33 years old with an old soul...I often stand on the sidelines watching the generations and observe and study the World within my own mind and so much of what you are saying is some of what I have noticed. Im glad Im not crazy because I was feeling that way for a while!! Great video!!
Raised around the greatest generation and never told how to live they demonstrated it . Not everyone has a chance to know their great grandparents but seek the wisdom of your elders before they are gone.
literally RIGHT NOW! I remember reading about this book and giving it away. The riots reminded me of this. I came looking for anything related to the author. and found this.
Pluto is going through Capricorn. 2008-2024 The last time this happened was around the time of the American Revolution and the Declaration of Independence.
I really appreciate this documentary featuring Neil Howe because usually, an interviewer asks questions relating to the fourth turning or the latest fed data or trump, but this one also just gets a window into his world and how his philosophy shaped generational theory itself. We learn more about the man himself in this interview.
This is the first episode in a 3-part series. The second episode will be published at 2PM EST on Oct 31 and the third episode will be published on Nov 1 at 2PM EST.
I see the end of the fourth turning as something that have some symbolism to it. Part of that symbolism will be passing the torch to the younger generation. This will come in the form of a Millennial winning the 2028 or 2032 presidential election.
“When using iPhone near your body for voice calls or for wireless data transmission over a cellular network, keep iPhone at least 15 mm (5/8 inch) away from the body, & only use carrying cases, belt clips, or holders that do not have metal parts & that maintain at least 15 mm (5/8 inch) ...”
Big fan of the book and real vision. Although I want to bring a contrarian viewpoint which is that this time around it may be a civilizational cycle and not just a generational cycle. Generational cycles are 70-80 years but China has historically had 200-300 dynastic cycles followed by 50-80 years of unrest and Balkanization : three kingdoms, spring and autumn period and most recently the warlord period. There is a chance that America is entering its civilizational cycle and of just the standard generational cycle
I'm back to listen to this for a third time this time with a friend this time.I enjoyed the conversation. The perspective is so helpful to understanding what's going .
Although the idea of these "Turnings" comes through towards the end, I would suggest that people actually read the book. I read it shortly after it was released in the lats 90's and re-read it about 3 years ago. It really is an amazing analysis filled with real-world examples through the centuries of how these generational cycles work..... basically 4 cycles over a generation (100 years).... of course the timing is never exactly the same but it is extraordinary how they demonstrate their thesis.
I took this comment of his in the sense of "people talk about the Fed as if it is able to govern the business cycle, but forget about that - the Fed is useless."
cooldude, I hope you’re being sarcastic 😂. "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property - until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." ~ Thomas Jefferson YT search “all wars are bankers’ wars”. If I post the link the comment get auto-deleted.
Being "forgotten" (The Forgotten Generation) has a few advantages. Gen X has seen the expression of neoliberal Reaganomics and Thatcherism along with the internet/social media rise. Having experienced and participated in both, we might have some insight. Makes us dangerously ignored imo. On the other hand, being forgotten makes me/us virtually invisible, right? I like being an invisible assasin with a front row seat to intergenerational conflicts. Kinda perfect. ;-)
I wish his book would have incorporated the relative size of generations with the length and severity of cycles. The boomers generation is the largest and longest living generation in history, and therefore, it is possible the unraveling is still in effect and the real crisis has yet to emerge.
Time to shut down social security. Solve the Boomer and housing crisis all at once. Workers will have more money and the boomers living in a nice house off of a fund they raided in the eighties will finally reap what they've sewn.
If social security was "raided" in the 1980's, then it would have been done so by the parents of the boomers. You need to get your time line straight. Boomers were not old enough to be overly concerned with that program at that time. But it was not raided anyway. The money was never put into any real investment vehicle other than a promise to pay from the federal government. There never was the mythical Al Gore "iron clad lock box".
@@mikebetts2046 Baby boomers were born between 1944 and 1964... They were 20-40 years old, they were in a recession at the time. It wasn't raided by the older generation to cover social programs, it was raided by the boomers' elected politicians. Tell me why you think it was their parents? Why would the older generation reliant on that program at the time want the funds loaned out?
@@kkingcombo12345 The boomers were not the only voting bloc in the 1980s. It's not as if they had sole power over the country. They were not old enough to be running much of anything.
I guess gen x is the forgotten generation who is reluctant to be involved because they see the government as a lost cause. They just want to be left alone to do as they wish. But I wonder if this crises wakes up the gen x to be active participants alongside those of the millennial age?
I like all this talk about cycles, however most people are failing to consider the biggest cycle of them all that’s going to F us. That would be the solar cycle and the crash in agriculture that will follow. It’s actually already starting and it’s going to get much much worse. The 11 year solar cycle and solar minimums also have a huge impact on people themselves, how they feel and how they act. It’s much bigger than most people realize. It’s also closely tied to the timing of every market crash we’ve had. Just saying
cool theory, are you alluding to the sun eventually going cold after some astronomical number of years? because i'm not sure what pulled us through all the past 3-4 11year solar cycles without much of a noticeable agriculture collapse...
Truly fascinating information! Watching this in Summer 2021. Understanding these 4 generational patterns and the up & down cycles has really given me so much to think about!
Human life span will peak with the Boomers and GenX and then start to regress. Millennials will not live as long as their parents. How can they, when they are under near constant financial stress compared to the Boomers who lived a worry-free existence pretty much their entire lives? (Yes yes, there was Vietnam, which only impacted the elder half of the Boomer cohort and which was easily avoided by the middle class and up).
rily51day typical Boomer response lol. Drives them nuts whenever anyone points out how easy they had it....yet still squandered the fortune handed to them on a silver platter.
Average lifespan has actually gone down recently for both men and women in America. It's 78 for women and 76 for men. Most boomers will be dead in 20 years.
@@doctorx1924 What has driven the lifespan down? Stress? Suicide? Cancer? Curious. I wouldn’t want to live much into 80 if I can’t work, unhealthy and feel and look really bad.
@@karmasutra4774 unhealthy diets, less exercise, overweight, diabetes, heart problems. I do agree with you I rather not live to 80 if it involves suffering and pain.
Look around next time you are in a restaurant. Notice all the responsible old people. Also, notice that the only young people that exist are only there to serve the responsible old people.
Just finished the audiobook tonight, and immediately found this video. I will be thinking about this book and its concepts for many years to come, I suspect.
Here is the reason why Mr. Jones: (Keynesian economics combined with philosophy) Neil Howe: He attended high school in Palo Alto, California, and earned a BA in English Literature at U.C. Berkeley in 1972. He studied abroad in France and Germany and later earned graduate degrees in economics (M.A., 1978) and history (M.Phil., 1979) from Yale University. You and I aren't captured by the bloviating rhetoric. It is much too difficult to find just about anything of substance on YT. Best of success. Michael....
You are tripping. How do you not get what he is saying. It is slow, but also deep and truthful. We as humans have created the pattern we are trying to understand. And that pattern is based on human knowledge and experience. The pattern calls for war and conflict. You are welcome. Winter is coming.
06:44 And yet you ignore one thing, you think things will automatically get better at some point. If you read Sir John Glubb's paper on The Cycle of Empires, you'd know a Empire lasts about 250 years before a collapse. Guess what year marker the U.S. is getting close to? 09:51 See above.
@@DavidGarcia-kw4sf and its rarely captured by just listening to what boomers want either. for example, he talks about cycles and hubris, but doesn't consider that we (society with certain assumptions) cause (and the boomers in particular actually caused) some of the negative cycles. so yes of course millennials will want to fix the problems they caused. An example of this is the boomers who got sold on neoliberalism when true capitalism considers land, capital and labour as seperate. thus land values should be the proper source of taxation as classical liberals knew.
@@kkz2916 it helped they didn't have a deep state run media keeping everyone from identifying the true source of market manipulation and the misery it causes. You're 100% correct
You've got to realize that the "cycles" you refer to are inherent to under-regulated capitalism's booms and busts and bond maturity, right? Pining philosophically about the pitfalls of hubris and the increasing amplitude of risk and risk aversion doesn't provide any useful progress. No mention of debt, debt service, and/or derivatives? But, "seasons" ,"mood changes", and ideological fractures are most important? Somewhat clever camouflage for laissez-faire capitalism.
this is a really cool concept for a interview/video. hard to do when guest and host aren't irl long term friends, but closest to it. I think this captures the essence of what rv is trying to accomplish.
Listened to the last 7 minutes. He sounds like an astrology reading. "Millenials are incredibly optimistic". How optimistic are we compared to previous generations at our age? If anything I think we have a much more negative or realistic view of the world than generations before us. About 31:00 Founding fathers "Jefferson, Monroe, Hamilton, .. etc they knew the American Revolution would win, but John Adams was sitting fearful saying 'how're we going to stick together'...". Sounds like he's trying to shave the edges of a circle to fit a square hole. None of the Founding Father "knew" they were going to win the war, they took a step in the dark and made it on the other side. 10% of colonists actively participated in the American Revolution, that's in no way a sure deal. He's trying to fit a narrative into his theory: every time there is a crisis, it has to do with new generations clashing with old. You can always look at all problems this way because there are always new generations and old but this is just an angle, a popular one today, but not the big picture.
@Ryan Thackston Adams was probably the most REALISTIC of the Founding Fathers and I myself am a Millennial who relates very much to him! In fact, he's actually which Founding Father I have the most respect for! He was certainly a no-nonsense kind of man.
@@thomasshort1784 I'm a millennial too and I agree most with John Adams from the viewpoints Neil Howe made. I think Neil Howe is just a shyster trying to make money on millennials and twisting the narrative on our founding fathers to make his book more sellable. He sounds like a fraud.
I'm one of the older millennial's at age 37 and definitely very cynical about the future. I have talked to people who are my age and younger and they tend to feel the same.
They slept walked our economy into a neo-liberal hellscape. They never challenged the status-quo of the boomers, who stole their ball. Gen X is caught in their heads about everything, confused about spirituality, and broke their brains on drugs and unproductive, rugged-individualism.
@@gwills9337 But it has been a fun ride. As a Gen-X I am glad I was born where I was. It’s been great from my perspective. Hate it for those that didn’t succeed.
rily51day it was a joke. Get a clue. Sound like you feel guilty for something and you get on here to claim your innocence. Bye Bye Boomer. No one cares.
Interesting to hear him say that “culture, humanities, liberal arts” resides on the east coast. Here in Minnesota and the Midwest, we have a deep Scandinavian Lutheran tradition of community based liberal arts education. Would love to experience that in the east coast, or Eastern hemisphere one day
No, the boomers brought the internet. It was the outgrowth of ARPANET, the US government’s internal net for the military in the 1970s. It eventually expanded to a public forum with bulletin boards (prior to the World Wide Web). In the early 1990s, Tim Berners-Lee at the CERN in Switzerland developed the world wide web, which used the internet, but based its searches on URLs. My husband wrote the first web server for the PC in 1993, long before Microsoft’s IIE. He is also a boomer.
@@SteviePaints The modern public internet and ARPANET are two very different beasts. GenX made the internet accessible to everyone in the 90s and it was wonderful, until the Boomers figured out how to monetize it and destroyed its early spirit.
I see a lot of cultural marxists in the comments. Whatever your age, when you use the designation for another generation as an epithet, you are, by definition, practicing cultural marxism. You are also creating a negative feedback cycle, making the cyclic downturn worse than it needs to be.
Exceptional series! Two hours very well spent - and more thinking about it and further doing research about generational dynamics. It's a shame how the views drop off so starkly though (200'000 on the first video, 60'000 on the second and 30'000 on the last). One really has to watch them all, and more than once as well. I think the titles aren't that good, especially the one of the second video. "Generational power transfer" sounds a lot more boring than it is. It is also not clearly discernible that this is a three part series, not from the title and not from the thumbnail. It would also be wise to put the links to all three videos in each video description. Let's do that great content justice and improve those things. Cheers and thank you! 😉
It isn’t hubris, or control that leads to the desire to smooth out cycles. Basic systems theory and understanding, particularly control systems, explains that a system that is i\overdriven will oscillate as this human system is. That can be and is destructive - quite unnecessarily so. Minor changes in system parameters can reduce or eliminate the oscillation resulting in much better performance and behavior. Perfect stability brings with it fragility and isn’t necessarily desirable. However, much better situations are possible. What that requires is understanding the system and it’s controlling parameters, then tuning one or a few key parameters. Our system is overdriven by greed. It is that which must be tempered. However, in the system we have, we prohibit such controls. Those with the most money control the levers of power that in turn set the rules which they then tune to favor themselves creating the overdriven system and the cycles of boom and bust, war and peace. But it isn’t solely economic. Military aspects apply as well. Excess military capacity drives a similar instability. As does insufficient with adventurism of others. Our system is not independent of others in other nations. The problem has to be solved globally. Local solution isn’t stable alone. Unfortunately this is embedded in the greater systems of the earth. And they are subject to similar boom and bust dynamics. Through our own processes we have vastly overdriven those destroying the capacity of the earth to respond. Worse, the time lags in the earths systems respond slowly compared to human systems. Our pollution has now so overdriven the earths systems that collapse is inevitable and with it a severe state change driving the earth to hot house earth conditions at break neck speed. Our failure to understand that or to accept responsibility driven by the same forces that drive the 80 year cycle now doom us within much less than a cycle. We are in the last cycle. We learned too late. We cared too little. We pushed everything out of balance. And now we begin careening off into the abyss. It was nice while it lasted.
educate yourself if you didnt understand then there is lots of work to do, that was their point the disconnect the lack of knowledge, frightening you still dont understand but then that was the point
They were saying that crises will happen as the Fourth Turning Cycle (The transition from the old order to a new) comes to the end every 80 to 100 years. The Millennial and younger generations will be a part of the next Crises and have roles to play. They use in the video above the Civil War as an example of a Crises cause by the Fourth Turning Cycle.
@Juan Sandoval There will be war between Gen-X and Y. Gen-X are traditionalists while gen Y are revisionists. The left over will be picked up by Gen Z.
@@shiftstart Ia I can see Gen Z in very polarized. The Tik-Tokers and the ConservativeZ. The latter will join Xgen to rebuild while Tik-Tokers will join the Millenials in the AI machine.
I've read the fourth turning. This interview barely touched its contents as either an exposition or a critique.. Just a lot of waffling about how clever he is.
My grandparents and WW 2. My father and the Korean War. My generation and the Vietnam War. And. And. And. No society, no culture, no civilization, no country can survive endless war and endless war-mongering. The people go nuts. And where we are today.
Mr. Howe's biggest fans are highly wealthy individuals who find him a comfortable story-teller justifying their high wealth. He's as useful as Nancy's astrologer.
And what people don’t understand about the Fed regardless of generational background is that the Fed answers to NO ONE. And it is not part of the US government but a bank. Never learned that in school.
@@DivoGo In any case, it does answer to congress though. Congress created the Fed, congress can destroy the fed. It also answers to the president because the president hires and fires its chair person.
It's difficult for me to believe that you can place all of these intelligent people together and watch them share their informative opinions on history, culture and the future, all while remaining blind to the looming elephant in the room. All of the past events and behavior they are discussing is the history of people who are ethnically European. These people will be minorities in America just 20 years from now. They are not interchangeable biological units that can be swapped out at any time to achieve the same result. Past history and talk of turnings will eventually become irrelevant, because the ethnic people who created this history will be lying under the tombstone of demographic destiny.
These individual stories of how you are so much like your generation's stwreotype are meaningless. The grouping of generations is done on a huge scale. It is not a predictor of what your personal personality is with any accuracy.
~10:00 There are small cycles and there are larger cycles, every linear observation is part of a larger cycle. Primitive accumulation and deforestation can be observed around most if not all ancient civilizations.
here's the thing about the doom and gloom crowd and yes i have read the 4th turning. they are wrong 90+ % of the time and often try to pull on that pattern recognition part of the human brain. it happened here, here and here so it must happen here thinking.....but it doesn't. economies don't die of old age and collapses don't just happen because of time. 01 happened from a tightening fed and sky high PE's it was a value correction. 08 happened from a lot of legerage and half mil loans to unemployed people on a frequent basis. this cycle can easily continue as world governments just inflate and print. sure fiat loses power but unemployment stays low and we continue on.
At one point Howe points that every era we're entering in is an era in which everyone who are last experienced it dies out. But people are living longer than they used to generations ago, so this generational cycle hasn't always been 80 - 100 years.
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You can tell how his experience of Reganomics was very different than most people in the way that he describes it in glowing terms.
Most people I know who lived through reganomics describe a period of grinding economic difficulty and political uncertainty during the cold war.
This reminds me of Chinese astrology - the 60 year cycles of five sequences/elements of twelve animals/cohorts.
Late 70’s born GenX’er here. I was raised at my Grandmother’s hip as my secondary caregiver. She lived an immigrant childhood, survived WW2 & The Depression, and greatly influenced my understanding of the world. I’m grateful to have had that link to the past. I’m 9 years older than my closest 1st and 2nd cousins (all Millennials). At family gatherings as a child I participated in discussions with the adults of the WW2 Generation and Boomers. At home, I was outside doing physical play unsupervised by adults until dusk. We solved our own problems. GenX is the quiet glue holding this whole thing together. Millennials better get ready because I think we’re about to live some of the times my Grandparents told me about.
born 1986, and I agree.
Yes I agree. We are about to hit hard times. Its looking like X is starting to speak up. I feel that X is kind of a compromise between the logic (boomer) and emotion (millenial). Maybe X will be able to help us through these rough times ahead without totally destroying ourselves. One can hope.
quiet glue, love it. Get ready, love it.
lol wait for us Zoomers. We're the ones that have to fix up this mess.
@@noflexzone2.055 True, brother, I'm hitching on to your generation. You can do it. Sorry to have dumped it all on you. But a few old men will be helping, you can count on that.
As a Gen-X'er, it's like living in a house with two divas.
100% with you. A non generation.
Fawkin' oldzzz m8.
Your wife and yourself? or are you living with your parents?
👏👏👏
Gen X is perfectly prepared for the 4th Turning. At every stage of our lives, it was the worst time to be alive for that particular generation. We're as hard as steel and will be the only ones prepared for the collapse. We're also the final generation that knows how to use tools. 70% of millennials do not know how to change a lightbulb - never forget that.
"The era in which we are entering is an era in which everyone who last experienced it is disappearing" this is why we should respect our elders!
Mentally and physically. Sad
Our elders too the high era and demolished it. They should be scorned and mocked. They are the turning that start offering their children to moloch. Millennials should destroy every single idol Boomers have held dear.
@@bradwhitt6768 your going to learn the hard way Brad!
boomers and millennials, gen x and gen z, all will be subdued by Alpha Gen
I'm in my early 60,s. The older I get the smarter my grandfather was when he was still here and giving me advice. When I was in my 30,s I may have questioned some of his thoughts ,but I have realized in many cases he was very wise.
You all nailed it. As a spiritual being, introvert, and 33 years old with an old soul...I often stand on the sidelines watching the generations and observe and study the World within my own mind and so much of what you are saying is some of what I have noticed. Im glad Im not crazy because I was feeling that way for a while!! Great video!!
Me too
Right there with you
Now we know why Those that do not learn from the past are deemed to repeat it, you can not know something you did not experience.
The only meaningful stuff comes at 27:00. He finally gets to the point. The rest is just padding.
thanks - didn't want to sit through too much drivel
Thank you
I didn't read this comment until I watched all the way through 25:00 😭😭
thank you
Nice
Raised around the greatest generation and never told how to live they demonstrated it .
Not everyone has a chance to know their great grandparents but seek the wisdom of your elders before they are gone.
Who's watching this during the riots in Minneapolis?
literally RIGHT NOW!
I remember reading about this book and giving it away.
The riots reminded me of this.
I came looking for anything related to the author. and found this.
Doesn't speak much to that. Not that I'm watching the MSM at all.
Na, riots in Portland OR.
I call this an inter generational war not a race war. Interesting to find I was not being crazy in my theory
Pluto is going through Capricorn. 2008-2024 The last time this happened was around the time of the American Revolution and the Declaration of Independence.
I really appreciate this documentary featuring Neil Howe because usually, an interviewer asks questions relating to the fourth turning or the latest fed data or trump, but this one also just gets a window into his world and how his philosophy shaped generational theory itself. We learn more about the man himself in this interview.
This is the first episode in a 3-part series. The second episode will be published at 2PM EST on Oct 31 and the third episode will be published on Nov 1 at 2PM EST.
Brilliant and insightful dialogue.
@@arnoldziffel5627 LOL no, it was 30 minutes of talking without saying anything.
Younger generation want more space for economic growth but those older generations just keep on living longer and longer.
2 presidents back to back in their 70’s
I see the end of the fourth turning as something that have some symbolism to it. Part of that symbolism will be passing the torch to the younger generation. This will come in the form of a Millennial winning the 2028 or 2032 presidential election.
As a gen-X er I don’t like either the millennials or the boomers.
Our generation should be renamed the forgotten generagtion.
Do u sometimes feel your paying for both?
@@stacybrewer9272 yes, I do.
Boomers and their wretched spawn. Ugh.
But GenXers are the parents to Millennials and the children of Boomers so it would seem you're the problem
I don't trust anyone with a phone holster.
It's a boomer thing.
BOOMERS haha
Nice riff on the boomer saying “don’t trust anyone over 30”
“When using iPhone near your body for voice calls or for wireless data transmission over a cellular network, keep iPhone at least 15 mm (5/8 inch) away from the body, & only use carrying cases, belt clips, or holders that do not have metal parts & that maintain at least 15 mm (5/8 inch) ...”
@@kneau Ok, computer.
neththom999 my apologies for not opting to deconstruct & transform a simple copy/paste into multiple stylized variations of data presentation.
this is the most philosophically grounded talk I've listened to on real vision!
Big fan of the book and real vision. Although I want to bring a contrarian viewpoint which is that this time around it may be a civilizational cycle and not just a generational cycle. Generational cycles are 70-80 years but China has historically had 200-300 dynastic cycles followed by 50-80 years of unrest and Balkanization : three kingdoms, spring and autumn period and most recently the warlord period. There is a chance that America is entering its civilizational cycle and of just the standard generational cycle
My tea is not sweet.
I think Twain was right. History may not repeat but it does rhyme.
I'm back to listen to this for a third time this time with a friend this time.I enjoyed the conversation. The perspective is so helpful to understanding what's going .
Always trust a man with a mobile phone holster.
Although the idea of these "Turnings" comes through towards the end, I would suggest that people actually read the book. I read it shortly after it was released in the lats 90's and re-read it about 3 years ago. It really is an amazing analysis filled with real-world examples through the centuries of how these generational cycles work..... basically 4 cycles over a generation (100 years).... of course the timing is never exactly the same but it is extraordinary how they demonstrate their thesis.
Thanks Grant Williams and the Real Vision team 🙏👍🏻 You guys have created something fantastic here (thank you Neil for your knowledge as well!!)
"Forget about the FED."
Okay, boomer.
seriously
Fight fight fight fight
I took this comment of his in the sense of "people talk about the Fed as if it is able to govern the business cycle, but forget about that - the Fed is useless."
Without the Fed the world would be in world war 3
cooldude, I hope you’re being sarcastic 😂.
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.
If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property - until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
~ Thomas Jefferson
YT search “all wars are bankers’ wars”. If I post the link the comment get auto-deleted.
Gen X forgotten about 😂😂😂😂
Being "forgotten" (The Forgotten Generation) has a few advantages. Gen X has seen the expression of neoliberal Reaganomics and Thatcherism along with the internet/social media rise. Having experienced and participated in both, we might have some insight. Makes us dangerously ignored imo. On the other hand, being forgotten makes me/us virtually invisible, right? I like being an invisible assasin with a front row seat to intergenerational conflicts. Kinda perfect. ;-)
It's just because the population size of Gen X is much smaller than the Boomers and Millennials.
I love flying under the radar...
@@markromine5103 NO ONE EXPECTS THE GEN X INQUISITION!
Here’s an advantage for Gen X: we don’t need an emoji to give you the finger.
I wish his book would have incorporated the relative size of generations with the length and severity of cycles. The boomers generation is the largest and longest living generation in history, and therefore, it is possible the unraveling is still in effect and the real crisis has yet to emerge.
@@jpm.182 it began in 2020... Its happening slowly, they will live for another 25 to 30 years
His first book "Generations" (1991) touched on that.
Time to shut down social security. Solve the Boomer and housing crisis all at once. Workers will have more money and the boomers living in a nice house off of a fund they raided in the eighties will finally reap what they've sewn.
If social security was "raided" in the 1980's, then it would have been done so by the parents of the boomers. You need to get your time line straight. Boomers were not old enough to be overly concerned with that program at that time. But it was not raided anyway. The money was never put into any real investment vehicle other than a promise to pay from the federal government. There never was the mythical Al Gore "iron clad lock box".
@@mikebetts2046 Baby boomers were born between 1944 and 1964... They were 20-40 years old, they were in a recession at the time. It wasn't raided by the older generation to cover social programs, it was raided by the boomers' elected politicians.
Tell me why you think it was their parents? Why would the older generation reliant on that program at the time want the funds loaned out?
@@nonyabiz9340 Also keep in mind that back then people didnt live as long, so yea the Boomers had a lot of power.
kkingcombo12345 overly broad statement. Plenty of WW I vets lived all the way into to new millennium.
@@kkingcombo12345 The boomers were not the only voting bloc in the 1980s. It's not as if they had sole power over the country. They were not old enough to be running much of anything.
I guess gen x is the forgotten generation who is reluctant to be involved because they see the government as a lost cause. They just want to be left alone to do as they wish. But I wonder if this crises wakes up the gen x to be active participants alongside those of the millennial age?
This video gets more relevant each passing day.
Anyone here after the r/WSB short squeeze? Its our time 💎👐
Forget about the FED and Central Banks he says. ha!
If only we could forget about the damage they do too...
I like all this talk about cycles, however most people are failing to consider the biggest cycle of them all that’s going to F us. That would be the solar cycle and the crash in agriculture that will follow. It’s actually already starting and it’s going to get much much worse. The 11 year solar cycle and solar minimums also have a huge impact on people themselves, how they feel and how they act. It’s much bigger than most people realize. It’s also closely tied to the timing of every market crash we’ve had. Just saying
cool theory, are you alluding to the sun eventually going cold after some astronomical number of years? because i'm not sure what pulled us through all the past 3-4 11year solar cycles without much of a noticeable agriculture collapse...
And Gen X always forgotten..
No profit, I guess. Were less inclined to jump on trains. 🤭🙃
We fly under the radar to ambush-attack after 2030..
Gen X == Nomad generation
Better to be forgotten, gen x the quiet achievers.
@@time2kickarse Exactly. I do my own thing and happy doing it.
Truly fascinating information! Watching this in Summer 2021. Understanding these 4 generational patterns and the up & down cycles has really given me so much to think about!
Human life span will peak with the Boomers and GenX and then start to regress. Millennials will not live as long as their parents. How can they, when they are under near constant financial stress compared to the Boomers who lived a worry-free existence pretty much their entire lives? (Yes yes, there was Vietnam, which only impacted the elder half of the Boomer cohort and which was easily avoided by the middle class and up).
rily51day typical Boomer response lol. Drives them nuts whenever anyone points out how easy they had it....yet still squandered the fortune handed to them on a silver platter.
Average lifespan has actually gone down recently for both men and women in America. It's 78 for women and 76 for men. Most boomers will be dead in 20 years.
@@doctorx1924 What has driven the lifespan down? Stress? Suicide? Cancer? Curious.
I wouldn’t want to live much into 80 if I can’t work, unhealthy and feel and look really bad.
@@karmasutra4774 unhealthy diets, less exercise, overweight, diabetes, heart problems.
I do agree with you I rather not live to 80 if it involves suffering and pain.
Millennial - hero
The Greeks knew so much of this long ago. I expected to hear the word Kyklos at least once.
Where did the Greeks get that knowledge from?
Sumerians
As a GenXer, I notice we are once again ignored...As a GenXer...whatever.
"Forget central bankers!" ~ 13:00
Hey Slappy, tell that to people now earning negative interest.
No one is earning negative interest... buy things
Why do Boomers always talk like Millennials freebased Mr Roger's Neighborhood?
They haven’t seen nothing yet ;)
They're arrogant and stuck in the tarpits of their rigid idealogy.
@@draculawolfman1502 Funny, I didn't know the "woke" ideology was known for it's flexibility.
Definitely a great Neil Howe interiew
Look around next time you are in a restaurant. Notice all the responsible old people. Also, notice that the only young people that exist are only there to serve the responsible old people.
Just finished the audiobook tonight, and immediately found this video.
I will be thinking about this book and its concepts for many years to come, I suspect.
A lot of talking without saying anything.
Here is the reason why Mr. Jones: (Keynesian economics combined with philosophy)
Neil Howe: He attended high school in Palo Alto, California, and earned a BA in English Literature at U.C. Berkeley in 1972. He studied abroad in France and Germany and later earned graduate degrees in economics (M.A., 1978) and history (M.Phil., 1979) from Yale University.
You and I aren't captured by the bloviating rhetoric. It is much too difficult to find just about anything of substance on YT. Best of success. Michael....
Right? Well said. I was thinking the same thing.
it's a plug for , look at me and my house.....
They missed the chance here to explore important issues.
You are tripping. How do you not get what he is saying. It is slow, but also deep and truthful. We as humans have created the pattern we are trying to understand. And that pattern is based on human knowledge and experience. The pattern calls for war and conflict. You are welcome. Winter is coming.
This guy has an uncanny ability to speak at length without saying a thing.
Typical of Academics today. 🙃🙃🙃
2019 seems like ages ago...
So does 2009 eek
06:44 And yet you ignore one thing, you think things will automatically get better at some point. If you read Sir John Glubb's paper on The Cycle of Empires, you'd know a Empire lasts about 250 years before a collapse. Guess what year marker the U.S. is getting close to?
09:51 See above.
I've been bucolic for 1 year, loving it.
How about links to parts 2 & 3?
OK BOOMERS! 0_O
Lol how long has that been going now? Almost 2 weeks, not even? I have seen duh boomah meemz 1,000x now. Bahaha
The complexity of the world is rarely captured in a bumper sticker.
@@DavidGarcia-kw4sf and its rarely captured by just listening to what boomers want either. for example, he talks about cycles and hubris, but doesn't consider that we (society with certain assumptions) cause (and the boomers in particular actually caused) some of the negative cycles. so yes of course millennials will want to fix the problems they caused. An example of this is the boomers who got sold on neoliberalism when true capitalism considers land, capital and labour as seperate. thus land values should be the proper source of taxation as classical liberals knew.
@@julsius thank you.
You are like so cool. And like so funny. And like relevant.
Thanks for the tour of Great Falls, from someone who lives 40mi. from there, but never visited.
I'm a boomer...and I agree with a caveat. Gas the bankers and money printers.
I'm pretty sure back in the forties we called that the final solution.
@@nonyabiz9340 Our ancestors were a lot smarter and had moral fortitude back then. This mess was created by a corrupt monetary system.
@@kkz2916 it helped they didn't have a deep state run media keeping everyone from identifying the true source of market manipulation and the misery it causes. You're 100% correct
You've got to realize that the "cycles" you refer to are inherent to under-regulated capitalism's booms and busts and bond maturity, right? Pining philosophically about the pitfalls of hubris and the increasing amplitude of risk and risk aversion doesn't provide any useful progress. No mention of debt, debt service, and/or derivatives? But, "seasons" ,"mood changes", and ideological fractures are most important? Somewhat clever camouflage for laissez-faire capitalism.
Agreed, this was a vapid, self-congratulatory conversation.
this is a really cool concept for a interview/video. hard to do when guest and host aren't irl long term friends, but closest to it. I think this captures the essence of what rv is trying to accomplish.
Listened to the last 7 minutes. He sounds like an astrology reading.
"Millenials are incredibly optimistic". How optimistic are we compared to previous generations at our age? If anything I think we have a much more negative or realistic view of the world than generations before us.
About 31:00 Founding fathers "Jefferson, Monroe, Hamilton, .. etc they knew the American Revolution would win, but John Adams was sitting fearful saying 'how're we going to stick together'...". Sounds like he's trying to shave the edges of a circle to fit a square hole.
None of the Founding Father "knew" they were going to win the war, they took a step in the dark and made it on the other side. 10% of colonists actively participated in the American Revolution, that's in no way a sure deal. He's trying to fit a narrative into his theory: every time there is a crisis, it has to do with new generations clashing with old. You can always look at all problems this way because there are always new generations and old but this is just an angle, a popular one today, but not the big picture.
@Ryan Thackston Adams was probably the most REALISTIC of the Founding Fathers and I myself am a Millennial who relates very much to him! In fact, he's actually which Founding Father I have the most respect for! He was certainly a no-nonsense kind of man.
@@thomasshort1784 I'm a millennial too and I agree most with John Adams from the viewpoints Neil Howe made.
I think Neil Howe is just a shyster trying to make money on millennials and twisting the narrative on our founding fathers to make his book more sellable. He sounds like a fraud.
I'm one of the older millennial's at age 37 and definitely very cynical about the future. I have talked to people who are my age and younger and they tend to feel the same.
What about the gen x the one after boomers and no they arent millenials
They slept walked our economy into a neo-liberal hellscape. They never challenged the status-quo of the boomers, who stole their ball. Gen X is caught in their heads about everything, confused about spirituality, and broke their brains on drugs and unproductive, rugged-individualism.
@passinthru but gen x are older gen z up and coming
@@gwills9337 But it has been a fun ride. As a Gen-X I am glad I was born where I was. It’s been great from my perspective. Hate it for those that didn’t succeed.
@@gwills9337 Dont see your generation challenging the status quo of the Boomers, either.
when you're talking about picking a time to be born, it's location, location, location (in spacetime)
thatwasprettyneat made me laugh. Ty.
rily51day it was a joke. Get a clue. Sound like you feel guilty for something and you get on here to claim your innocence. Bye Bye Boomer. No one cares.
Neil Howe simply argues confirmation bias to an extreme.
What could happen with total electronic surveillance and control to the “natural “4th turning cycle?
Gen X ❤️
Interesting to hear him say that “culture, humanities, liberal arts” resides on the east coast. Here in Minnesota and the Midwest, we have a deep Scandinavian Lutheran tradition of community based liberal arts education. Would love to experience that in the east coast, or Eastern hemisphere one day
I love this Roadmovie format of Real Vision!!!😍
Generation X brought you the internet
No, the boomers brought the internet. It was the outgrowth of ARPANET, the US government’s internal net for the military in the 1970s. It eventually expanded to a public forum with bulletin boards (prior to the World Wide Web). In the early 1990s, Tim Berners-Lee at the CERN in Switzerland developed the world wide web, which used the internet, but based its searches on URLs. My husband wrote the first web server for the PC in 1993, long before Microsoft’s IIE. He is also a boomer.
@@SteviePaints The modern public internet and ARPANET are two very different beasts. GenX made the internet accessible to everyone in the 90s and it was wonderful, until the Boomers figured out how to monetize it and destroyed its early spirit.
Life is what you make of it.
I see a lot of cultural marxists in the comments.
Whatever your age, when you use the designation for another generation as an epithet, you are, by definition, practicing cultural marxism.
You are also creating a negative feedback cycle, making the cyclic downturn worse than it needs to be.
Timcast brought me here
17:27... Thank you for saying this Neil Howe. After that, a light came on.
Yes, that's why History is so important- to give perspective to ones with common sense.
This author's boomer enthusiasm is simply reckless.
Invested in the old order. Says it all
@@richardscathouse What will the new order look like?
Take half an hour to say very little.
Exceptional series! Two hours very well spent - and more thinking about it and further doing research about generational dynamics.
It's a shame how the views drop off so starkly though (200'000 on the first video, 60'000 on the second and 30'000 on the last). One really has to watch them all, and more than once as well.
I think the titles aren't that good, especially the one of the second video. "Generational power transfer" sounds a lot more boring than it is. It is also not clearly discernible that this is a three part series, not from the title and not from the thumbnail. It would also be wise to put the links to all three videos in each video description. Let's do that great content justice and improve those things.
Cheers and thank you! 😉
It isn’t hubris, or control that leads to the desire to smooth out cycles. Basic systems theory and understanding, particularly control systems, explains that a system that is i\overdriven will oscillate as this human system is. That can be and is destructive - quite unnecessarily so. Minor changes in system parameters can reduce or eliminate the oscillation resulting in much better performance and behavior. Perfect stability brings with it fragility and isn’t necessarily desirable. However, much better situations are possible.
What that requires is understanding the system and it’s controlling parameters, then tuning one or a few key parameters. Our system is overdriven by greed. It is that which must be tempered. However, in the system we have, we prohibit such controls. Those with the most money control the levers of power that in turn set the rules which they then tune to favor themselves creating the overdriven system and the cycles of boom and bust, war and peace.
But it isn’t solely economic. Military aspects apply as well. Excess military capacity drives a similar instability. As does insufficient with adventurism of others. Our system is not independent of others in other nations. The problem has to be solved globally. Local solution isn’t stable alone.
Unfortunately this is embedded in the greater systems of the earth. And they are subject to similar boom and bust dynamics. Through our own processes we have vastly overdriven those destroying the capacity of the earth to respond. Worse, the time lags in the earths systems respond slowly compared to human systems. Our pollution has now so overdriven the earths systems that collapse is inevitable and with it a severe state change driving the earth to hot house earth conditions at break neck speed.
Our failure to understand that or to accept responsibility driven by the same forces that drive the 80 year cycle now doom us within much less than a cycle. We are in the last cycle. We learned too late. We cared too little.
We pushed everything out of balance. And now we begin careening off into the abyss. It was nice while it lasted.
Well one thing has certainly stayed consistent and thats government corruption.
Millennials? Optimistic? Have you seen the memes?
I'm confused... Did these guys actually try to make a point about anything? Seemed like lots of bla bla bla to me.
educate yourself if you didnt understand then there is lots of work to do, that was their point the disconnect the lack of knowledge, frightening you still dont understand but then that was the point
They were saying that crises will happen as the Fourth Turning Cycle (The transition from the old order to a new) comes to the end every 80 to 100 years. The Millennial and younger generations will be a part of the next Crises and have roles to play. They use in the video above the Civil War as an example of a Crises cause by the Fourth Turning Cycle.
What did he just say?
Terrific conversation gentlemen, looking forward to #2.
This man is such an ice hole for completely neglecting Gen-X.
Nevertheless, Gen-X are in line to carry the touch after the boomers and this neglect suggest the Millennials are the choose after a new cycle begins.
@Juan Sandoval There will be war between Gen-X and Y. Gen-X are traditionalists while gen Y are revisionists. The left over will be picked up by Gen Z.
@@shiftstart Ia I can see Gen Z in very polarized. The Tik-Tokers and the ConservativeZ. The latter will join Xgen to rebuild while Tik-Tokers will join the Millenials in the AI machine.
@@shiftstart yes you are absolutely 💯correct
I've read the fourth turning. This interview barely touched its contents as either an exposition or a critique.. Just a lot of waffling about how clever he is.
My grandparents and WW 2. My father and the Korean War. My generation and the Vietnam War. And. And. And. No society, no culture, no civilization, no country can survive endless war and endless war-mongering. The people go nuts. And where we are today.
THE FOURTH TURNING IS SURELY WITHIN..
Talking bout economic and debt stressors two years ago 😬
Great Falls! I'm just a stones throw away! Greetings from Alexandria
Mr. Howe's biggest fans are highly wealthy individuals who find him a comfortable story-teller justifying their high wealth. He's as useful as Nancy's astrologer.
What exactly is the relationship from Hedgeye and Real Vision Finance?
Really GEN-X Really -- Neil Howe have a gift of gab!
The Fed does control the cycle. The Fed is responsible for creating it in the first place
The business cycle is a result of excess liquidity and subsequent investment which can be influenced by the Fed but would happen regardless.
And what people don’t understand about the Fed regardless of generational background is that the Fed answers to NO ONE. And it is not part of the US government but a bank. Never learned that in school.
@@DivoGo I learned that about its structure in school but I have a business undergrad and a masters in finance
@@DivoGo In any case, it does answer to congress though. Congress created the Fed, congress can destroy the fed. It also answers to the president because the president hires and fires its chair person.
It's difficult for me to believe that you can place all of these intelligent people together and watch them share their informative opinions on history, culture and the future, all while remaining blind to the looming elephant in the room. All of the past events and behavior they are discussing is the history of people who are ethnically European. These people will be minorities in America just 20 years from now. They are not interchangeable biological units that can be swapped out at any time to achieve the same result. Past history and talk of turnings will eventually become irrelevant, because the ethnic people who created this history will be lying under the tombstone of demographic destiny.
Late 60's GenX here, one millennial, two Genz, these a different between the two. My grandchildren are the alpha period 😊
I'm almost 32 and so ready for the old order to die off
I'd settle for retire, hang out with grandkids and getting off facebook, which they clearly don't possess the media literacy to handle.
Cant wait til someone around your age says that about u in another 20 yrs.
These individual stories of how you are so much like your generation's stwreotype are meaningless. The grouping of generations is done on a huge scale. It is not a predictor of what your personal personality is with any accuracy.
~10:00 There are small cycles and there are larger cycles, every linear observation is part of a larger cycle. Primitive accumulation and deforestation can be observed around most if not all ancient civilizations.
Who writes this garbage. Dude...there is an entire generation between those 2 generation of "Look at me, I'm special" generations.
Oct 2020. Awesome interview/chat /talk. I learn so much today. Thanks Real vision hits another home run.
Love this interview. This guy is amazing. Gonna go read the book.
i'm nineteen and found this insightful. going to read this book.
greg if you want to join a Facebook group focused on this theory let me know.
The Forth Turning is a ground breaking book. The Capitol Steps was a hilarious comedy group as well!
@@ryenwthomas What is the link?
Does anyone know if there is any books, videos or forum showing how this has been playing out in Europe?
He's working on a book to include global trends.
here's the thing about the doom and gloom crowd and yes i have read the 4th turning. they are wrong 90+ % of the time and often try to pull on that pattern recognition part of the human brain. it happened here, here and here so it must happen here thinking.....but it doesn't. economies don't die of old age and collapses don't just happen because of time. 01 happened from a tightening fed and sky high PE's it was a value correction. 08 happened from a lot of legerage and half mil loans to unemployed people on a frequent basis. this cycle can easily continue as world governments just inflate and print. sure fiat loses power but unemployment stays low and we continue on.
At one point Howe points that every era we're entering in is an era in which everyone who are last experienced it dies out. But people are living longer than they used to generations ago, so this generational cycle hasn't always been 80 - 100 years.
Not since the Turing of the millennium.
Neil Howe is 68 years old.
sounds like Issac Asimovs Psychohistory books came out ages ago 1942-1950