Can Democrats Win the House and Senate?
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As the race for the Presidency tightens, we turn our attention to key congressional races that could determine how effectively either candidate could enact their agendas. So has the edge in the House and Senate? And could there be a governing trifecta?
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When the senate was first created the population ratio between the most and least populated states was 6:1, now it's 60:1 ....
The Senate and House both need to be a lot bigger. The voter-to-representative ratio is a huge problem with the US political system - Congress is simply too small for its members to keep remotely in touch with the everyday concerns of their electorate.
So they need bigger room to do their work.
What you expect Wyoming or Vermont to do? Steal 30 millions people and have them cramp in a small area?
@@Apocalypse21OG No, the point is that having two Senators per state regardless of population is ridiculous.
@@Talisguy You have represenation tie to population in HR. Senate shows equality of all states in union.
HR should be expanded to be cubic root of population (693 congressmans for today popualtion), and every state should have 3 senators instade of 2. Both should be elected by STAR Voting method.
I hope Dan Osborn wins and inspires more independents to run. We’ve got to bit by bit get away from the “sports team” 2 party system.
We really need a space for non-MAGA Republicans and centrist Dems to run in Red states.
I agree but it will never happen until we enact a different voting system
@@Waldohasaskit210we can still vote tactically
Give us multi member districts and ranked choice voting so people aren’t encouraged to vote for someone they dislike please.
Dan Osborn is just a democrat running as a independent to seem moderate. Go ahead and look at any other independents voting record, and you’ll see they pretty much vote with their caucus 99% of the time.
As a Minnesotan I feel like I have to say this: it's pronounced "Walls" not "Waltz"
what’s your thoughts on Waltz and the general feeling of who will win the election?
@@ABoxIsMyHome I think it's funny that people call him progressive, cus most of that is progressives in the state legislature pushing him on that stuff, not him wanting to do it. as for like who will win? its gonna be a coin-toss, a couple 1,000 voters in the swing states who will decide who they're voting for day of
@@leifmcewen-updegrove1893 i’m scared for y’all, i hope you are voting for Harris :)
@@leifmcewen-updegrove1893 Do you have a source that says he didn't actually want to sign any of the legislation that came to his desk? I find that unlikely, lmao
@@soccerguy325 totally get that, it’s mostly anecdotal- I just know that a lot of my leftist activist friends weren’t the biggest fan of him cus they said he wasn’t willing to sign bills that would have raised Uber drivers minimum wages, and in general fought activist groups on language of the bills- not saying he’s a conservative or anything, just that he’s a politician of the moment sort of guy, and that his moderate reputation when he was in the house is I think more accurate to where he actually is
Homer J Simpson is a household name in Alaska. He's running on a campaign of more tartar sauce for everyone. The fishing industry has his full support.
And mine ❤️
Reminds me of when Bozo the Clown was running for president in the 80s. His slogan was: 'Vote for the real Bozo' !
Please think of poor blinky
At first I thought that was an unfortunately named candidate... checked online and there is no Homer J. Simpson running, I guess it's an in-joke for TLDR
Simpson eh… new man?
I hope we all know that it doesn't matter who is in the 'top job' because this is a systemic problem -- greed. We have allowed many of our economic sectors, to take advantage of the American people. It's disgusting and frightening for the future of our country. My wife and I will be retiring in the next two years n another country.
We are absolutely worried that SSI will no longer be funded. we'll have to rely on his pension, a 403 (b) and a very prolific Investment account with my Stephanie Janis Stiefel my FA. Our national debt is bloating and expanding every month. Our government needs to get spending under control and cut the federal budget.
What country you moving too?!'m headed to Thailand or the Philippines in 4 years.
I know this FA, Stephanie Janis Stiefel but only by her reputation at Neuberger Berman
; even though she's now involved in managing portfolios and providing investmnt guidance to clients. I have been trying to get in contact since l watched her interview on WSJ last month.
@@SehunEscobarI have a sister in Sri Lanka, should be easy for me to settle in
@@SekouJannickeWell her name is 'STEPHANIE JANIS STIEFEL'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
The new American Dream is to leave.
Housing costs, medical costs, and the IRS are three of the big reasons that make it so.
Quick answer no: Senate is highly favorable for Reps no matter who wins the presidency
Dems will win House, Reps will win Senate, and President is a cointoss
Odds are in their favor, but it's not out of the question. Especially with Nebraska and Texas being opportunities for Dems
@@ill_bred_demon9059 I'd say there's a better chance of the Ukraine war ending this year than Texas having a blue senator, especially due to Allred's disastrous debate performance.
@@michaelvstemerman I doubt the Presidency is a coin toss (it's at least more favorable to Trump), especially given Kamala's recent string of disastrous interviews on Fox and 60 Minutes. Also, running on Trump being orange Hitler won't help Kamala's campaign, even more so since she's technically the incumbent.
@shutup2483 every woman in Texas saw Cruz support the extreme abortion ban. That won't go over well with them
Short answer: no
Long answer: no
Just dismissing the possibility ist just shortsighted
@@fighter0056Harris is literally down in all of the polling in every swing state at this point. The senate is also almost guaranteed to flip because of states like Montana being likely for republicans to win. The house is genuinely the only one I could see going to democrats at this point.
It’s not shortsighted to go off of the concrete information that we have instead of just saying, “B-B-But it could happen.”
@@thepolishcow9050 Yeah, and I guess you forgot Trump was WAYYYYY further down in polling in 2016 than Harris is now? You remember how that turned out, right?
short answer: no
long answer: noooooooooooooo
@@thepolishcow9050 the polls don't really mean anything. Winning the polls losing the polls, who gives a f. Hillary Clinton was winning the polls in 2016 and lost
3:41 Finally, an independent politician we can trust!
He's the only candidate going against big Lisa
i wouldnt have noticed that if not for your comment. thank you
Next Video:
Can Democrats Turn Mars Blue?
That depends, do we know anything about Mark Watney's political views?
Short Answer: Yes its possible but its unlikely
unless puerto rico is admited to the union, 5 house and 2 senate seats.
Exactly. My hope is that with Trump and MAGA gone, Dems and Reps can begin to work again "normally", like political opponents, not like enemies.
Fortunately
@krisshnapeswanipeswani3190 will never happen
@@hegara376 ya, we did that before. It's called the uniparty and all it did is give us perpetual war and monopolies to the criminals who put them in power. Like, how stupid are you on a scale of 1-AOC?
The problem about polls is that Trump/MAGA supporters are either ashamed to say they vote for them or distrustful of anything that's not clearly on their side (eg Fox News). That's why they've been outperforming the polls on election day. Pretty hard to gauge the actual inclination of the electorate.
No, thats 2016, now they are open about voting for him
The problem with 2020 is they did not include people who just said Trump and refused to go further with the polling, now they are including those people
I think that was much more of a factor in 2016 than it is now. People forget that Trump already was the president for 4 years, so he's not some wildcard outlier one has to support from the shadows anymore, but very much mainstream. Those that were ashamed of supporting Trump have by now come out of the closet, switched sides or become fence sitters. I don't think the remaining hesitant Trump supporters are a significant proportion of the voter base at this point.
Democrats out performed the polls by an average of about 4.5 points, 5 points in swing states. Polls will always be inaccurate
Maga doesn't like fox news lol
i just don't think that they are ashamed anymore ever since he won in 2016
edit: clarifying that i'm talking about 2016
its not even clear whether dems will will presidency, forget about senate
Literally nothing is clear, except that the Senate will most likely be red. The rest is a total tossup.
Clearly you don't know how the branches of government work...
@@hauthesun dems aren't winning a trifecta
@@hauthesun just so that you know even ronald regan landslide win in 1984 was not a trifecta
@@pranshukrishna5105 They absolutely can.
Short answer: no. They have no realistic pathway in the Senate
Wouldn't say they have NO pathway but it does seem unlikely
@@RJH755I think it's more of an unknown possibility tbh. We're in uncharted waters with the drop out mid race, and the polls getting way better all of a sudden
@@KrustyKrabPizza22 Aaaaand then Trump just started gaining ground on every front
@@BlAckH0le-f7y a lot of these are partisan polls
@@BlAckH0le-f7ystranger things have happened. Like trump winning in 2016.
3:40 D'oh!
Never thought I'd hear Nick Fuentes' name here lol
"Controversial political pundit"? More like neo-nazi influencer
Nick is the goat
@@ReginaldToynbee 💀
@@ReginaldToynbee I don't think a diet consisting of crayons, glue, and marker fumes is working out for you; might want to switch gears.
@@ReginaldToynbee fr I'm a day one
California is on track to flip at least 4 house seats. I think it’s likely the house flips but it will be closely split.
It’s gaining for Republican registrations
No it’s not 😂 at most they’ll flip one
I remember when people were saying "Red California!!" in 2020; how did that one turn out?
@@Cyrus992 I believe most of this comes down to registered legacy democrats finally actually switching party registrations. Not necessarily indicative of actual much net Republican votes.
@@dark_messiah8183 explain further
Its always weird when my home district gets mentioned on international news
If women and the younger generation come out to vote then a Trifecta for the Dems isn't impossible
Man don’t tell me there’s a candidate with the first name “Marionette”
😂😂😂 I didn't even think of that.
OK, this was actually a good video. Clear, nice visual aids, to the point, important. Thanks!!
You forgot about the abortion and weed admenedments in Florida
I don't think that will help democrats very much in Florida
Florida went for Trump on the same ballot that they allowed felons the right to vote. The local Democrats infrastructure has been ineffective for a long time
Weed legalization is popular among both parties here. And the ban on abortion is actually more extreme than what a lot of people wanted, so I don’t think it will help democrats that they are on the ballot. We’re also the state that voted for Trump in 2020 AND voted in favor of a $15/hour minimum wage…
@@caseclosed9342
Would GQP more extreme than what they wanted help dems?
@@caseclosed9342 I think personally that the state is going to flip I live in brevard county which in 2016 was a trump plus 19.5 % in 2020 it was Trump plus 16.4 but this year I have hardly seen any Trump signs and it’s one of the most republican counties in the state but from what I saw it had large support on both 3 and 4
There is also an abortion referendum in Florida
My bet is that neither party will get a trifecta, but the combination could fall any way - it's so close that I have no idea which party will get which.
It's _possible_ that the GOP's public struggle to agree on a Speaker will flip the House, but I wouldn't put money on that happening and I don't think it'll be a large swing if it does happen. The Senate and Presidency are both a coin toss.
I’m guessing you’re not American. The American news cycle moves absurdly quickly. The speaker debacle is not going to affect almost anyone’s vote given everything else that’s happened since then
Id imagine that the democrats will take the house and lose the Senate, and the Republicans will be the opposite. Then whoever wins the presidency still won't have a trifecta
I’m also excited to see Dan Osborn go to the senate as a Populist
as a european its always fun to see who will win
not very fun if you are from Ukraine
I'm definitely not having fun here as a fellow European. I hate that this thing I have absolutely no control over is going to have such an impact on global politics.
Fun? I wish they would just get on with it already.
No one will be having much fun if Trump wins. Backing for Hungary, Serbia, Russia, ...
@Talisguy As an American, I realize most of the world is trying to survive whatever media and politicians throw at us. However I'm very thankful my ancestors left Europe/Asia, wherever.
"Fans of TLDR like YOU care about ... " Is it just me or does anyone else get really annoyed by that ad format? I like the content, I don't mind the ad's , it is what it is, but this insistent labeling followed by a proclamation of what " I " care about make me wanna scream at the screen. "I watched a video and now I'm a fan am I?" "Oh, I care about learning about the world around me do I? How nice of you to tell me." Honestly, I might even suffer through the ad if it didn't start of so irksome. I am irked.
It's annoying, but they need to make money some way. This isn't just a TH-cam channel but a corperation
It's manipulation!
Its just marketing speech :l
I think no, is the answer.
The likeliest situation is Congress flipping which is ironic because control of 2 houses is already mixed
While i think they have a good chance to flip the house, keeping the senate will be difficult unless they could pull an upset
2:37 This map of NY is actually slightly wrong. One of the districts got flipped back to the democrats after the special election when George Santos was expelled. If you look on Long Island, it's the northern of the two dark red ones.
Short answer: no
No. No they can't. I cannot emphasise this enough.
There's a bigger chance of Big Bird from Sesame Street becoming President than there is of the Democrats winning a trifecta.
What are your predictions? Who will win what?
exactly
While I don't see any party getting a trifecta, it very much seems like any and all of these races could go either way. No combination of wins or losses would surprise me, unless one was a landslide in either direction.
@@Talisguy nah dems aren't winning senate
At this point I would take option number one
NY results should be interesting this time around.
No.
3:52 isnt all that popular is one way of putting it, another way of putting it is he has like MAYBE a 10% chance of winning
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It is highly unlikely that the Democrats will win the house
It actually is more than likely
Winning the House is more likely than the Senate.
It's the Senate it really wouldn't put money on them winning. Reclaiming the House is likely.
More likely than the Senate
not at all, haha
Living in Arkansas for 28 years like, y’all can switch who you elect 😅
I've been watching Is Osborne and the fact that he's this close is INSANE!
People complain about the house of lords in the UK but the US Senate is significantly worse for democracy
Almost like that what it is designed to do: prevent mob rule. Too much democracy is bad because too many people are dumb, the Senate kills stupid legislation from both parties and that is a good thing.
It’s to say the midterms would be essential if Kamala wins. Gerrymandering makes it basically impossible to win the house this time around and other than the potential of an Independent winning in Nebraska and Allred winning in Texas the balance of power in the senate is very much in the Rep’s favour.
But I think a midterm election would definitely favour democrats IF Kamala were to win. Since the focus would be on trying to enact her agenda and the swaths of seats up for re-election that time around give them a better fighting chance. But ofc that’s all speculation.
Not everyone is going to be behind Kamala's agenda lol. Much like with the 2010 midterms there may actually be extreme backlash, it would all depend on how she acted as president.
You guys are really impressive with your research on these for being out of country - as a Mainer who was stoked about Golden and the ranked voting we have been so stoked he got through. Hopefully he can again!
With this kind of enthusiasm, it's not impossible!
jew no matter who
so much genecider enthusiasm
3:49 Homer Simpson 😂
Minor correction: 0:53 you depict the MPs, but there are actually 3 vacants (not only 2)
i mean if they lucky they can win a third of a trifecta
Dxracer
crazy how set in everyone is- we really need to fix this country if we still even can
I hope so. Kamala/Walz, 2024.
It's good to see Homer Simpson running for office in Alaska.
The democrats should start taking office measurements now. This has in no way failed them before.
If you ignore all the polls, yes. I also see you still haven't learned to pay attention to swing state polls and still are looking at national polls. It's almost like you're trying to ignore the actual metrics.
Do not underestimate the Democrats in PA-10!!!
Gotta love it how these people just go braindead on random days!
noticed the Simpsons reference in the election card example
The most interesting House races to watch are Washington's 3rd, Iowa's 3rd, Michigan's 10th, Pennsylvania's 8th, Virginia's 7th, Nebraska's 2nd, and Maine's 2nd.
Washington's 3rd is my favorite because the election between Marie Perez and Joe Kent is a rematch. For context, Perez won in a massive upset 2 years ago and is facing the same opponent, but they're sharing a ballot with the presidential race, so turnout will be high.
You guys should be looking at the very accurate Gallup party identification poll, usually 1 point margin of error only getting 2008 wrong. It has regulars up +3 in pop vote
It would be amazing if the dems could actually implement some good reform
“Unpopular” Ted Cruz? He is one of the top national republicans, he is not losing
OK, he still hated in Texas 🥴
@@justincaver324 hated in Texas by the liberals in Austin im sure, you’re delusional if you think he is losing the state.
@@justincaver324 This is like saying Eric Adams is going to be replaced by a republican in NYC because he is disliked in NYC. It’s pure wishful thinking
@@phattorangecatto
Texas is becoming purple every year, soon it will be blue.
It is possible.
I won’t say Texas Cruz is “popular” but I do think democrats are grasping for the wind to think he will be unseated.
The way I look at it, Beto Ororke didn’t come close to beating Cruz in 2018. Instead, a deeply unpopular Cruz still beat the most enigmatic and charismatic candidate the democrats have run in texas in decades.
If Beto didn’t beat Cruz I don’t think Alred is going to have a chance.
It's a very informative video, but what I don't understand is when you say that Dems are "marginally less likely to achieve" a trifecta than Republicans, meaning it's probably very unlikely Dems will win this, why are you talking about this scenario in the first place?
Fellow american friends, doesn't matter what, just take Marjorie Taylor Green out of the congress. Please!
How about all?
I randomly met Adam Schiff at Jackson Hole
GET RID MARJORIE SHES THE WORSE
No. She's great
@@dqdq4083she’s q anon
She is from gerry mandered pizz a pool.
I don't think that is possible.
increase the cap of the house of rep from 435 to 3500 members
It's sad, I donate to AP news, yet this is the only news analysis I've seen so far on Congressional races.
Buy that man a light bulb!
I definitely think it’s a possibility that the house and senate turns blue! My state is hard red (Missouri) but I’m definitely voting blue down the ballot! And don’t forget to vote in the mid term elections folks!
Most importantly if Cruz loses in Texas it would be very funny
I'm sure they'll find some excuse to keep everything deadlocked even if they do win it all.
Why is TLDR so biased about American politics? They can talk about far right Eastern European parties pretty fairly. But when it comes to America it’s terrible.
Speaking as American it’s because our right wing is much farther to the right than Europe’s normally
@@danishsyed1068 The American right is more liberal than the European right, it's more overtly skeptical towards the state, but it's not farther to the right than the European right-wingers are.
the bias against republicans is so weird too, considering there's parties to the right they are more fair towards lol
@@danishsyed1068 listen to any far right European politician about immigration and you'll change your mind
@@danishsyed1068 no it’s not even kind of?
Meanwhile here in illinois my vote will always be for nothing, we're blue all the way through either which way i vote
And to think I moved from growing up there to the god awful state of Talibama.
0:12 "He (Trump) is basically a tosser"
Why is Homer Simpson on the Alaska ballot?
1:37 in California many of us are trying to unseat Michelle Steel, I can’t stand her
I'm also curious of the Maine senate race, since I thought Larry Hogan was pretty popular as Governor by Republican standards, especially since, I might be wrong, but I thought Maine has been blue for most of the 21st century.
I’m surprised that you guys present more left side then right side. We will see in couple of weeks who does
But then they wouldn’t have any excuse to drag their heels…
Kathy Hochul's last name is pronounced "hoe-cull", not "hoe-chull"
Thanks. Unfortunately, US political polling is unreliable as the 2014, 2016 and 2022 elections have shown. This is because very large and crucial voting blocks of Americans refuse to answer Any political survey.
DRD is very possible but i think a dem sweep is less likely then a rep sweep
3:43 Well, I know one person of that ballot who cares about people’s pets allegedly being eaten in Springfield…
There is at least one closer house race in Michigan
I am begging you to learn how Kathy Hochul pronounces her name
2 weeks ago polls had Tester down 9.
TLDR tldr: no
Sure they could win. In the sense that all the polls could be wrong.
We will be lucky if we can win one of 3 tbh... everything is so close
It has to happen 🎯💯🇺🇸
WHY DON'T YOU EVER TALK ABOUT DEMOCRAT GERRYMANDERING?!
?
Mostly because it happens in Blue strongholds like MD so they aren't seen as that relevant besides as GoP talking points.
3:01
And Ohio. It's issue 1 on our ballot and it's making a lot of people become partisan on the matter because Republicans were the most recent abusers of redistricting the state over the last 4 years. 7 times, their maps were rejected, and so now, it's either vote for democrats because they want you to also pass issue 1, it's time we take partisanship out of the mapping, or vote republican because the democrats are trying to silence your right to have your elected officials represent how you get mapped.
1min 23 seconds saved by not watching to the end affecting their stats. Sponsorship in current format is sillly
Democrats will outperform if they manage to keep 48% of thr house.
Ain’t happening. Would I like it to happen? Yes. But will it happen? No. It’s more likely each chamber will flip, rather than one party controlling both chambers
if they win 1 I think they will be lucky
I hope for the best.
3:33- Not really, though Peltola won in part because the republicans campaigning against her kept attacking each other; Golden was already at 48-44 on the first round, and has held on ti the seat since 2018
The winnneeerrrrr takes it allllll🎶🎶🎶🎶
better than multi-party 🎶🎶 🎶
Mamma-Mia, here we go again. 😒🎶🎶🎶🎶 😂
let's hope so
Not a chance, too much corruption.
Only if they locked in which they won't.
Oh god, I hope so
This feels like the closest election this century
nothing will beat 2000
@@snazzle9764 Listen If the electoral goes:
AZ , GA , PA red and
MI , WI ,NC blue.
The entire election will be decided by Nevada which is also very uncertain.
Browne is ahead by 5. Ohio is not close
My favorite reality TV show is in full swing baby. :D