S4E9 The Fragility of China: A Conversation with Dennis Unkovic

In this episode of Madison's Notes, we sit down with Dennis Unkovic to discuss his latest book, The Fragility of China. Unkovic delves into the complex forces shaping China's political, economic, and social landscape. From the country's rising internal challenges to its evolving role on the global stage, Unkovic offers a nuanced perspective on why China's future may be more uncertain than it appears. He unpacks the key themes of his book, including economic instability, demographic shifts, and geopolitical tensions, while offering insights into what these trends mean for the rest of the world.
Dennis Unkovic is an international attorney with decades of experience advising global businesses on trade, investment, and international relations. He is a prolific author and speaker, known for his expertise in U.S.-Asia relations. In addition to The Fragility of China, Unkovic has authored several books and articles on global trade and economic issues.
Madison’s Notes is the podcast of Princeton University’s James Madison Program in American Ideals and Institutions.

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When you talked about demographic problem in China even if we are to believe their population be halved, they would still have 770 million people, but the same demographic problem exist in the US. The US has more people in the 65+ bracket than China, there is 16% of the American in US that are older than 65 and in China there is 14% for the same age bracket. Talking about workers there are 770 million in its work force and that compare to 160 million in the US. When China's economy was growing at 12% and size of its economy was around 3 trillion and today if it is growing at 5% with economy of nearly 19 trillion that is a significant difference when you have an economy that grows by 360 billion over with an economy that grows by 950 billion. Is demographic important not necessarily and it will depend on what a country can produce and make and sell to the world, if your industry is only selling shirts, clothing, boots then what you are going to get in return is much less than you are selling ships, trains carriages, electronic components, telecommunication equipment, cars and a wealth of products that associate with it, countries that produced valued added products are going to earn more even with a decrease population.