Great series, very clear, precise and thought-provoking. Would be excited to see more episodes on topics of Ukraine (the whole series is obviously very much about Ukraine, but still, it could be interesting to hear your observations of Ukrainian perspective). Also on the UK as it took the leading and unique role in supporting Ukraine. Thank you very much for your work!
Interesting lecture series thus far. Fascinating to hear this perspective, impressive guy. Many questions come to mind but better to park them until the end of the series - ranging from geo-strategic to tactical in nature.
Alexander Stubb is douchebag. Political animal without anyting unique, except always 3 points. His brain can process barely three things. He failed spectacularly (like in his politics).
Napoleon Bonaparte: Never interfere your enemy, when he is making a mistake. 1. China will give Russia leverage to fight. 2. Russia will fight like it fought first Crimean war. 3. After bankrupsy, Russia must start selling land assests in far east #Enter China bid This is Chinese game plan.
@@pexxajohannes1506 not necessarily land, but the resources under it. And that's good enough for China; a near unlimited piggy bank of natural resources.
This guy, condemns Russia and Syria as "rogue states". The US/UK is rogue for a long time... Then claims China which is fascist and has minorities in concentration camps committing geocide and this asshole does not mention how evil China is. China is one of the most repressive places in the world! Coward!
If you're interested in continuing this series, I would like to see your views on the U.S., and how you think the polarization of U.S. politics will affect the war, especially if the Republicans win control of Congress and/or the White House over the next few years.
He's just a parrot. Doesn't matter if the Reps win except for public perception. It's why they couldn't have Trump win the last election. With the exact same things happening if he were President now, trust in government would be beyond repair.
Thank You. For your entire series, I appreciated 1.) your format 2.) reference to outside resource eg Marti Kari 3.) a non North American view. Hope to hear more …🤠
what does that suppose to mean :D Do you think for mister Stubb the american culture is an open book...not having any secrets for him ??? I would be very SURPRISED if that was the case
@@kukulroukul4698 That's the best feature of "American culture." we are by definition, "an open book." Our history and our process of governance is well known throughout the world. That is not to say that the US government doesn't have its secrets, but we've always been pretty open as to what our goals are in economic and foreign policy. That is one of the simultaneous advantages/disadvantages of being an democratic free society. Especially when contrasted to the more autocratic, dictatorial countries like Russia and China. Professor Stubb is obviously very familiar with the Western model of governance. He also has a lot of insights on the Eastern approaches as well. That's why this lecture series has been so illuminating. I love his methodical and well reasoned approach to all of the topics so far.👍
Thank you, this is a very interesting set of lectures. However, I feel it unfair not to have a separate video about Ukraine, about its history, mentality and leadership. Like you treat Ukraine as an object, but not a subject in this war.
Very thoroughly enjoying this. So great to hear an opinion that matches mine; that russia is an aggressor and even if Ukraine is a corrupt nation, putin must he stopped.
Really appreciate this European assessment of china. I suggest reading some Lee Kuan Yew’s analysis of us china relations and the future of that relationship
Your analysis on China spot on. The government and its people have long memories and they know their history very well. This is a country with more than 5,000 years of history of which its people are direct descendants from those 50 centuries ago. People are proud of its past but not imperialistic. Continuity is important, so does mutual respect. Hope you could do another episode and a longer one, to delve deeper into the many aspects briefly covered in this episode. Thank you
_The government and its people have long memories and they know their history very well. This is a country with more than 5,000 years of history of which its people are direct descendants from those 50 centuries ago._ This, or statements similar, are so frequently trotted out about the Han Chinese that it has become a tired trope. Knowing history, learning from anything from that history about what to do/not what to do in future or believing in history being your future are three entirely different things. If anything, this tired trope was/is/will be the eternal Albatross hanging around China's neck and far from being it's greatest strength, is actually it's greatest weakness. *History is a Trap* If you believe in a cyclical version of history, then China is doomed to repeat an endless cycle. (Traditional view: The Three Kingdoms "Long united the Empire must divide. Long divided the Empire must unite". Mandate of Heaven. Nothing new under the sun.) If you believe your own history is a Tyranny from which you will escape through a linear, historical, march of progression (New view: Smash the four olds, CCP, historical determinism) then only the future will prove this as history. Either way, _you are still a prisoner of your history._ TL;DR Version The Paradox of History Are we trapped in History? History will tell or We are not trapped in History History will prove this
@@Taojas Technology may progress linearly, but human nature does not change. Therefore, history if not repeats, rhymes. History is cyclical. Those who believe otherwise act unwisely thinking they are wise, and soon disappear from history altogether.
Most fascinating lecture on foreign affairs I’ve listened to… maybe partly because of the worlds current situation. Your comment about ‘is democracy a stable institution’ is really on point. The US is a world event ‘one off’…. it’s currently…. a gyroscope spinner that is out of balance. The entire world needs to think how it will effect each person…if it crashes. Interdependence, as you said…. is probably critical…. to keep that gyro from crashing…. on the negative side…. most of the world is leaning heavily on that gyro…. which pushes it to crash faster! Your foreign policy expertise is fascinating to listen to….again… thank you for sharing!! 🌻🌻
@@farzana6676 US didn't contain then as Japan is an ally. Japan has the same demographic problem as most industrialized nations in that it's population is getting older and older. On the military side, Japan does have the 2nd strongest navy in the world and works very closely with the US Navy.
@@farzana6676 I stand corrected. That said. A large percentage of PLAN ships are small and of the previous generation's design and technology (this not including the truly old coastal defense stuff that they go rid of years ago). The JMSDF vessels are mostly modern, with three 4 new light carriers (DDH), the Aegis destroyers, and the modern attack subs.
Great lectures in general, but lots of specific points to take issue with. One: "Chiha knows its history". I teach at a major US university & work with lots of students from Chine. It's amazing how little of Chinese history they know. Chinese leaders may be different.
I think you are right for those young students who have been busy with their exam-oriented education system. I studied engineering and when I was young, I really didn't have much knowledge of history. But you know, you can then learn your history here and there, everyday, after finishing your education. At least this what I've seen.
Exactly. With an engineering background, I'm still poor in history knowledge, but I think I've picked up knowledge of many major historic events and periods, etc.
Your students are lucky that you're willing to share your knowledge, insight, & experience with them. I know very little of Finland, & those that I've met were living in the US at the time. Thanks for posting these mini lectures & allowing an old man a small amount of continuing education. I do wish I had your faith in the current generation. In the US, it seems that chasing diversity & fairness has unfortunately weakened what little moral character & strength Americans had.
Tack för jättefina föresläsningar gällande kriget i Ukraina. Presentationerna är tydliga och lätta att förstå och framställningarna pedagogiska. Hoppas på mera material i fortsättningen. Lycka till i fortsättningen.
This is really an interesting lecture. I also find Professor Alexander Stubb very fluent, confident and eloquent when he talks about many topics of Russia, Europe, America, Finland, transatlantic,WW I, WW II, war in Ukraine, and so on. But when it comes to the topic of China, he is obviously not so confident, and even has to look down at the manuscript many times. I am particularly interested in the details of professor's description of his two meetings with Xi Jinping, which reaffirmed my observations and judgments of Xi's personality. Thank you professor for the wonderful lecture.
The way people talk about China does not make sense to me. China is a rival, not an enemy. Sure, every rival is a potential enemy, so we need to have military analysts examining the scenarios that the commentariat likes to throw around. But being a potential enemy doesn't provide any particular reason to expect they'll become an actual enemy any time soon. The relatively rule-based world order, combined with modern economics and technology, has meant that China could use soft power to exert greater hegemony over a larger area at less cost than any formal empire in history. China is the big winner under the status quo that Russia is trying to replace with nineteeth-century hard-power imperialism. Why does basically every pundit think China wants to rearrange the world order into something less advantageous to China?
Thank so much to learn much from your historical teaching of Europe, Asia, and the united states.Really I appreciate you. Next I look forward to learn more about the Africa link to the world. Now Africa continent has brighter future in the technology world ? Thanks once again for your teaching.
Your take on 'what is China thinking' takes into account 1969 issue between Russ-China as a reason for some distrust between the two but you do not mention the 100 years of humiliation at the hands of 'NATO' countries. China will not be surprised at the ganging up or unity of these countries as they've experienced it first hand during those years. As you say historical context in China is different to the west and those 100 years is very significant in their evaluation of relationships with western nations.
It's very interesting to hear the comments of people like yourself, ambassador Bill Taylor and my own relatives in Poland compared to people like Noam Chomsky and John Mearsheimer. The latter two blame NATO expansion for this war. The people who have actually lived next to Russia want to join NATO. Thanks for the series.
Totally agree with all your points here, especially about Taiwan. I was living there during 2000 when we had the elections where a pro independence candidate was the front runner. It was very intense with the threats coming from Jiang Zemin but Xi seems to have nothing but patience for the long game and hopefully the response to Ukraine will be a deterrent. My biggest frustration with China is how comfortable they are with saying one thing and doing another. For example, many Sanctions are already being completely circumvented by China in the same way intellectual property rights are completely ignored.
as a viewer from china, my personal answer to Prof Stubb's 3 questions: 1) we don't support the war, but we don't hope Russia to lose either; 2) based on 1, we will not support Russia in military (i.e., support weapons) directly, but find a way to make sure Russia will not collapse. 3) to achieve the above 2 targets, China prefers to support Russia through economic channels. also, China supports Russia, not because we want to fight against Ukraine, EU or NATO. The reason is China will be in danger, and definitely be the next target of US, if Russia collapsed. Therefore, we need a strong neighbor: Russia, stands with us to face US.
Thank you for your openness for us. What my country did in the event of Ukraine is wrong. And I hated for them. But I thank you for your openess of mindset to discuss things. It is really kind and warming
His proclivity to explore is that of an ancient explorer from a principality from circa bce. Yet his tendency of benevolence is that of an ancient explorer from a municipality from circa ad. Nonetheless, shall your creative prowess prosper and the tides of history always in your favor.
Europe is not a superpower because a superpower can not be under occupation from another superpower so in reality the EU is merely just a vehicle of United States hegemony that's how we see it.
@@jonasback7043 how many American soldiers do you have in Germany,Poland,the Baltic States,Romania, Bulgaria etc, how many EU forces do you have in the United States of America or on American soil we are not stupid you know it only confirms one thing and that is the fact that the EU is weak.
I think what you said about Xi thinking 'See, Democracies are always so unstable, they don't work' which reinforces not just Xi and Chinese leaders thoughts but the thoughts of ALL or most governments led by Autocrats. It's been said Democracies come with baggage and it takes constant work to make them successful but it is worth it. So looking from the outside in, Democracies look like they don't work because all Autocrats see is protests, people publicly criticizing government or leaders which looks like chaos and instability whereas what is really happening is Democracy working by giving voice-without fear-to every single person. It is because these Autocrats who live in countries who NEVER had a true Democracy just do NOT understand what it truly is. I may hate what my neighbor says and stands for but I will fight anyone for my neighbor's right to say it. That is just not in China or Russia's mindset. AND as far as 'Friendship without Limits', that was definitely BEFORE Russia invaded Ukraine. I think if the war had gone the way Russia thought then what China did or thought would be moot. I DO think that every month that Ukraine fights back and regains territory and the abominable way the Russian military has performed has suddenly added definite limits to their friendship. This was more than evident at the Shanghai Conference. Xi and India made it quite clear that they were not happy and did not like the way Russia was handling it. They made Putin stand alone waiting for them when it is usually the other way around. Instead of being the leader like usual, Putin was definitely made to look like the Junior Partner of the Alliance that he is now. Putin has no economy, no military and if he didn't have Nukes, Russia would be going backwards towards Third World status.
The only thing I think Stubb has wrong here, is the presumptive ascendency of China. We're a lot closer to peak China than peak USA. China, as we're seeing now, has such major demographic, financial, and economic structural headwinds in front of it, plus an unwillingness to do the transformations that would yield power to the populace (to foster consumption) because it would be at the cost of the CCP's power, that we'll see stalling, sputtering, and perhaps even regression from now on. How can the CCP, which is committed to it's own power, give away any of it's 50+% share of the economy back to the people, which would result in them having the power to demand more choice. Ideologically the do not have it in them, not without a full breakdown of the entire system (slowly, but eventually).
@Modi WhinyThePoor And ASEAN's biggest exporting partner is still West. West is still the Richest part of the World. Hence if it goes into deep recession, the world will come down with it.
Most of China over 35 years old grew during Den’s period. As such, they believe integrating with the world help bring prosperity to China. As in US, Europe and else where in the world, the youth are more radical (more influenced by Xi). They believe that China should claim its rightful place in the world and by force if necessary. If the West start to decouple with China, they would see this as justification of their view.
@Modi WhinyThePoor My bad, miss spelled his name. Could never pick the right one between “Den” and “Deng”. Not now, not then. But if you actually follow any Chinese recent history, you would know I was talking about Deng Xiaoping (邓小平). Here is his wiki. I hope TH-cam doesn’t eat it (replace * with dot). en*m*wikipedia*org/wiki/Deng_Xiaoping
@Modi WhinyThePoor You are showing your ignorance again. Every item is different. At basic level, there are high value added item and the others, like commodity. Everyone wants to get into the higher profit part of the trade. Luckily, unlike you Chinese leaders know that. It makes most money trading with US first and then EU directly or through other countries like Vietnam.
Moi! Kiitos videosta! Oon Ukrainalainen ja onpa meillä paljon kysymyksiä nykyään. Tuleeko videoanalyysi Ukrainasta? Sen näkökulmasta ja tulevaisuudesta. On jo esimerkiksi BBC:n dokumentaalinen elokuva, jossa käsitellään Ukrainan Maidanin historiaa. Jos siis video Ukrainasta on tulossa, voin tarjota mun apua, jos on pakko kääntää englanniksi jonkun pätkän jostakusta lähteestä, esimerkiksi. Tai ehkä voisin antaa yleisiä vihjeitä esimerkiksi siitä, mitä tavalliselle ukrainalaiselle opetetaan koulussa Venäjästä tai Neuvostoliitosta, jotta en ole subjektiivinen. Ukrainassa me uskomme Ukrainan voittoon, mut mitä tulee sen jälkeen? Pelkään tulevia vuosia, itse asiassa. Kirjoitin suomeksi toivottavasti kiinnittääkseni huomion. Opiskelin sitä pari vuotta, mut en ole sekä opiskellut että käyttänyt sitä yli vuoden.
What he fails to capture is that the main focus in China regarding Russia-Ukraine conflict is the role the Anglo-Saxon (the US and the UK) and the Jew (with East European background, active in the military industrial complex and neocon/neoliberal) play in terms of their century old's routine of balance of powers and divide and conquer to prevent the regional integration in Eurasia by weakening any regional hegemon (e.g. France, Prussia, Germany, USSR, Russia, China, India, Ottoman). The EU on the other hand is interpreted as a puppet manipulated by the Anglo-Saxons and Jews, and is a dividing union that can barely make decisions based on its own interest.
Mostly I agree with what is mentioned. However, I beg to differ on the following 3 points: 1- EU is not a power since EU can't decide it's own, it doesn't have an independent foreign policy. The EU's policy decision is made in the Washington. 2- I agree that Russian is declining power, however, it has a great military capability, at the same time Asia is rising therefore Asia need Russia for its security against the west. Which is Russia doing right now. 3- The EU's parliament has stopped the free trade deal with China so it has consequences. The actual powers are the US and China therefore EU, Africa, middle east and South America's will be having tough times in the future. It is just the beginning.
Stubb is saying that western concessions towards China must continue so that Russia remains as isolated as possible and pressured to the maximum degree. But how long can the US afford to be granting these concessions and losing economic ground to China? This is the question. Let alone the issue of Taiwan.
In your dreams. China has to support politically Russia because China is the US next target. US will arm Ukraine 'to the last Ukranian standing' to destroy Russian at any price economic Sanctions as well. Russians prepared for this war over 8 years since Nato was not prepared to acknowledge Russias concerns of Nato expansion. Nato has blood on its hands in many countries like Serbia, Lybia bombing civilian cities. Sweden Finland have made a deal with Turkey with conditions which Turkey will accept them as members only when they are met. No guarantee that will happen and in the meantime the Fins and Swedes have exposed their countries into danger and cut off from supply of gas and oil coming from Russia. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. This guy reminds me a lot of Stolenburg. A puppet doing the bidding of his masters. Watched Stolenburg and his arrogance is there for all to see.
Wonderful analysis, however I would be curious to hear his comments on the challenges that China faces in the coming two to three decades, namely its demographic crisis as the most rapidly aging population in the world, the water shortage crisis, looming economic crisis in the form of the housing market, COVID management, and finally its recent drastic foreign policy change (namely, burning all of their political bridges in lieu of generating nationalism). Many economists look at the China as potentially being so much under threat that it may not emerge of the next super power on par with how the US was for decades.
Chinese attitude to politics is philosophical more so at the highest level and the attitude of China watchers has not changed over decades Meanwhile Europe and the us is stagnating due to saturating with no colonies Europeans and us is mainly preoccupied with the future of South America and Africa
Much discussion and concern about China Yet there is a rising power in this world that seems to go unnoticed by many. It is largely a peaceful nation, but it is a rising power that will greatly influence the next generation. It is the world's largest democracy. It is poised to replicate the Chinese miracle, but in it's own independent way. In a few years, India will be discussed more and more as it takes over much of the world's manufacturing and begins to develop mew products for the world.
If you know Peter Zeihan's work, he largely shares your opinion of India as a rising power that will dominate the Indian Ocean and the trade routes through it. It also has a much healthier demographic than China.
It would be interesting to see how India grow in the next 10 years. Protectionism and being the largest democracy country could be the only reason that slow down its growth. Good luck, India.
"...the common enemy that unites Russia and China is, for Russia more Europe and a little bit the US, whereas for China more the US" This surprises me considering the map Alexander presented in the previous lecture, depicting Russia surrounded by US from space, sea and NATO neighbors. At least in rhetoric, Russia seems only as concerned with Europe as US is able to exercise its influence there.
If you look at a map of Asia Pacific, you will see China surrounded by South Korea, Japan, non-core Japanese islands, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and India. Australia is nearby and the presence of the US is everywhere. All these nations are either US allies or opponents to China. As for its border with Russia, let's just say that it's not the same as the US/Canada border.
I'd be interested to see Mr Stubb do a video on European politics. I was surprised to see him retweet a McFaul tweet celebrating the defeat of an EPP colleague in Slovenia. The Slovenian PM was one of the first to visit Kyiv, he's not a Putin sympathiser.
I am not a historian when we were growing up in srilanka Influenced by British we don’t know anything about Eastern European history. My first foreign land was Moscow from there I traveled all Eastern Europe . Except Finland & ice land .
Thank you for another great video, and especially for your final piece of advice, which I think is hugely important. If I may suggest a video for everyone that touches the topic, look up the story "I, the pencil", preferably as retold by Milton Friedman. I was very fascinated by it the first time I heard it, and truer words are rarely spoken.
This has been a fascinating series of lectures on contemporary geo-politics. I think the estimations of China are overly optimistic though, particularly in relation to super-power status. They are going to struggle to feed their population and keep the lights on over the next 6-12 months, and their neighbouring countries are becoming far more cost-competitive to do business with. They have massive financial issues about to cause an implosion in their economy and significant demographic issues with a rapidly aging population. They have already passed their high-water mark for at least the next 1-2 generations.
Absolutely correct and they suffer immensely from brain drain and the exodus of many young people / families that don't like the autocratic system, what intelligent person would?
Struggling to feed population? Keep the lights on? What kind of news are you reading? I've been to China several times during the pandemic and there aren't any of these issues going on. Shanghai has had a bad month but that's hardly representative of larger China. China has not been the cost effective place to manufacture for a very long time. Even Steve Jobs mentioned that China is the best place to manufacture even when it wasn't the most cost efficient place. It's because their manufacturing infrastructure makes it so easy to do so. China is already bigger than the US GDP PPP. They're starting to actually innovate on top of the tech they stole. I can't see the US sustaining our seat as number one economically unless we have proper leadership.
@@Gongolongo You've got some good points. Ease of doing business certainly can't be discounted. The blackouts I was referring to were the ones in 2021 starting around May and continuing until around November last year. That said, the point I was making above was not about the past, or even current situation, but the impacts current events both within China and in Europe will have on China in the future. Food shortages, grain in particular, are going to be an issue for a number of countries, and China will be one of them.
EU and the West must take manufacturing back from China . People need jobs and producing masses of goods so that people can have 20 pair of jeans instead of 10 has other costs such environmental war and low wages, inability to buy a home etc etc. It is not about cutting China out, is about increasing EU production jobs and wealth to accommodate the need of a system if countries that has taken massive amounts of refugees and yet is still unable to offer employment to all of its own citizen.
What about the under the table maneuvering for the gas and crops acquisitions? As for the three things to read that mentioned in the lecture, you might also need to look into and understand the century old humiliation inflicted by the west, and by the Japanese imperialist on the average Chinese citizens minds. They remember just as you remember 911.
When he said “do not decouple with China”, it sounded almost like saying do not decouple with Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. It really shows how ignorance are some of the western politicians on China. When you have an increasingly assertive China that is very ambitious in creating a new world order the doesn’t care too much about liberty and democracies, it is not the West who holds the keys in genuine cooperation in the grand scheme of things. China is increasingly happy to use it’s economic, political or even military might to force the democratic world to act according to her own ways of thinking and behaviour. The comment is just a hollow statement when you can’t find a meaningful way to work with China without sacrificing the democratic values. Worse still, this dilemma applies to almost all areas in the relationship between China and the West since the past 3 or 4 years.
Except if you watched the last episode he said he is hoping the next generation of russians or the current youth of russians will some day bring Russia back to world table as changed country. He didnt say anything that we should keep them around in near future despite of war. In this video he said they will be likely left out of for a while due to the ongoing war and since there isn't war with China we shouldn't agravate 1 by decoupling because it's the european markets that are important for china to keep and europe isn't Chinas current "enemy" like they see USA as. If thats gone then they are more likely to act since they've already lost it. Then they would be more likely to attack Taiwan or cooperate with Russia. Atleast thats how I understood this.
It's not just a matter of the next superpower. You know, if East and West communicated seriously, something like the Renaissance would come about. A whole new era will be opened. If there is a technological revolution in the middle, then mankind will come to a new era.
Your views are conservative. But anyone familiar with Western history knows that the rise of Western capitalism stemmed from the Renaissance. There are dangers in this conflict, but also opportunities.
The time for limitless exchange between the east and the west has very likely ended. Look at what Russia and China are doing these days. They are determined to build a new world order without democracy and freedom. Your opinions are only hollow statements without a practical way to change their imperialistic mindsets.
Like so many, I am hooked on this series and your perspective on the world especially considering your personal first hand experience and knowledge. I would doubt XI Jinping has much if any respect for Putin, Putin on the other hand should have absolute respect for Xi Jinping. What caught my attention most was when you compared China and Russia back in the 1980s as almost equals with regards trade and commerce and now 40 years later, where they stand today. Putin's invasion and War in Ukraine will fundamentally change the world we knew into a very different world will will know in the future. But first the war must end, Putin must go and Russia needs to get its house in order and try and gain some respect and trust from everyone, including I believe China. I would argue that Xi Jinping is right, western democracy is broken maybe not in all countries but certainly in the UK and USA as to many policies are politically driven with the goal on winning elections not always what is best long term for the country. Russia does not do politics it has a Putin system, whilst Chinese politics is fascinating as much as its ever evolving adapting. If only Russia had followed a similar path, we would not be in the largest European War since WW2 with 19 million displaced and nearly 5 million Ukrainian refugees. This War has also been a wake up call for the EU Europe as a whole and the NATO Alliance. Russia is unquestionably a military superpower but certainly not a trading superpower whilst the EU was in my view lost trying to find an identity and fighting amongst itself over who has control over what. The EU should be so much that its not, its a mess but hopefully Putin has given them energy and focus to work together and deliver what 447 million people hoped, a prosperous and safe future.
Uselessoldman, it's an appropriate name, that is one reason why Ukraine is where it is, like poland, you produce wheat they produce apples. I have a lot more to say but I don't have FREE time
Good summary. The war in Ukraine has caused a lot of rethinking in Beijing on multiple fronts, including how close they should-be with the pariah Putin. Xi had felt for a long time that Russia was useful in creating a new world order where authoritarianism is a legitimate alternative to democracy. He was even beginning to think that their system was superior to democracy. Now the democratic world has shown to be united and making decisions based principles, the whole calculus of the world has to be redone. (Simultaneously, the fact that China's method of controlling the virus is proving to be flawed and inadequate must be taking away from the sense of superiority) China will do what is best for China and they will prioritize business and connection to the EU and US over Russia, who has turned out to be more of liability than a trusted partner.
actually China doesnt care about ideology at all. and actually the US doesnt care about ideology either. it has all kind of allies,even Nazi and Fascism. "democracy" is a good weapon though.
None of this is correct. China will wait for the EU to fall back into disunity in the coming years and will keep Russia close. The EU needs China much more than China needs the EU. The EU gives China paper for real goods. Now that there are restrictions for technology transfers, the EU produces nothing that China wants. So ends deeper trade relations. On the other hand, Russia sells commodities, assets of real value. China will value Russia much more than EU.
Love the lecture series. I was wondering that with China having a long memory what do you think are the chances that China will revisit the Sino-soviet border conflicts after the the Ukraine war and attempt to reclaim the lands the Soviet union took from them?
I agree with FHD's comment that there is potentially a chance for negotiation in the future. But any negotiations would be in a friendly manner, and with win-win results in mind. That's because both countries are worried about an attack by America. They can't afford to aggravate one another.
@@KarateDrSanDiego That was the Soviet Union. Russia simply inherited the unequal treaties. China and Russia signed a 25 year friendship agreement in which China will not negotiate the unequal treaties. After 25 years China will resolve the remaining unequal treaties one by one. That's part of Chairman Mao's bucket list.
@@KarateDrSanDiego Yes, again agree with FHD. But again, as I mentioned before, it will be in a friendly manner, and with win-win results in mind. Neither party can afford otherwise.
The talk misses out the Chinese territorial claims to their past empire high point, building islands in the S.China sea and not only building a military but having it aimed at the Pacific and US allies. Wanting "a little bit of instability in Europe" is highly threatening, already people were souring on Chinese goods. Similarly the repression in Hong Kong shows a lack of pragmatism. Taiwan's TSMC are global leaders in semi-conductors, making the stakes much higher than in the past. A Chinese invasion would destroy much high tech production.
What he fails to capture is that the main focus in China regarding Russia-Ukraine conflict is the role the Anglo-Saxon (the US and the UK) and the Jew (with East European background, active in the military industrial complex and neocon/neoliberal) play in terms of their century old's routine of balance of powers and divide and conquer to prevent the regional integration in Eurasia by weakening any regional hegemon (e.g. France, Prussia, Germany, USSR, Russia, China, India, Ottoman). The EU on the other hand is interpreted as a puppet manipulated by the Anglo-Saxons and Jews, and is a dividing union that can barely make decisions based on its own interest.
Agree and I find Stubb talking points more in line with China before Xi. Now they are less predictible not as much as Russia of course. But much more so than earlier. Probably Stubb is a freemarket guy that believe that this is very important for world peace. It did not work at all with Russia as he pointed out and caused a big problem for Europe that they have to deal with now. I find less interdependence to be good but not too much of course.
Your view is based on the western MSM, you are missing the local people's mind. I live in HK, and "repression" is too much soft, I hope all the domestic terrorists put in jail, but the court in HK is influrenced by UK(what a disater that HK is still in some form of colony of UK).
@@hurmur9528 as a Chinese, I actually agree with you. Xi and his monopoly on “wisdom” puts lots of uncertainty into this. The talking point here more represents Den Xiaoping’s thinking and all the presidents in between were more of an extension of Den. Xi on the other hand wants to replace Den as the ideology leader of modern China. Den has patience and choose the route of integration with the rest of the world. That gives China its prosperity now. Xi on the other hand had been trying to reverse that trend.
The principal opposing player in the Korean War was China. Allied forces rolled North Korea's army back over the border six months after it invaded and occupied 90% of the south. There is debate as to whether MacArthur's subsequent push to the Chinese border triggered the second invasion or whether China would have entered the war regardless. China's invading army comprised ~1 million men. For the duration - 2 more years - the allies were outnumbered roughly 8-to-1 on the ground, with China adding another million to cover losses (exact numbers for Chinese deployments are unknown). People/media/pundits/analysts miss the S. Korea / Ukraine connection because; 1) the Korean War has been generally forgotten; 2) S. Korea didn't become a liberal democracy until 35 years after the conflict ended. The Korean War was in fact hugely important, the only Cold War period that went hot between the major powers. Democracy/capitalism met communism - represented by China and the Soviet Union - on the battlefield and the forces of autocracy lost. The allies achieved stated goals and lost ~50,000 men in so doing while China conceivably lost 10x more. Ukraine is Russia's South Korea. The principal differences thus far are 1) Ukraine's military has been much better prepared and capable; 2) Ukraine has not had the benefit of direct allied involvement. China and Russia (and seemingly every country not named America) take the long view of history. America's use of S. Korea as a means to hold China in check over the past 70 years isn't lost on either nation. Russia fears NATO bases in Ukraine because of what America has done in South Korea. Putin is many things but stupid isn't one of them. The combination of American protection and democracy/capitalism enabled South Korea to flourish, becoming a technology and export powerhouse with a standard of living that's plainly embarrassing to the CCP. He knows that even if NATO stays out of a neutral Ukraine western capital will not be similarly restrained. Unavoidable comparisons between a rising Ukraine and a stumbling Russia will weaken his grip. The Korean War is the piece of Cold War history in which Russia and China find their strongest basis for a common cause. There's no question China will support Russia for the duration regardless of human suffering.
Neither Russia or China are Communist anymore. The former has a ruling clique while the later has an a-ideological ruling party. While both oppose American hegemony, they are not allies. China will maximalize its own interests, only playing lip service to solidarity with Russia. Anything that Russia gets from China will have been paid for with oil, gas or gold.
He said, in the last recommendation, "cooperations and interdependence is deterrence to confrontation". But everybody is blaming Germany for cooperations with Russia on energy sector. Isn't it double standard?
@@suisinghoraceho2403 How come it is one directional, check out this report from EU... "In 2021, the total trade in goods between the EU and Russia amounted to €257.5 billion. The EU’s imports were worth €158.5 billion and were dominated by fuel and mining products. The EU’s exports in 2021 totalled €99.0 billion."
China as a culture may think long term but I disagree with you in that the CCP thinks short term on it's decisions toward the primary goal of staying in power.
Totally agree. China as ruled by the ccp cannot sustain the house of cards it is built on. It is not thinking about the long terms; it is thinking about the next election/convention
A party that aims to remain in power is a party that thinks short term? You assume a multi-party system provides long term growth. This shows an ignorance of history.
I think it's a question of perspective. One can say that the Chinese economy relies on Western inputs. There is lays the interdependence. If the West were to stop or curtail accepting Chinese exports, the Chinese economy would rapidly decrease or even contract. We are seeing this happen to Russia.
Not really, during the past 20 years of Putin term, Russia's main focus is to integrate with the West other than China. Just look at the trade, they trade way more with Europe compare to China. Russia's main energy export is to EU, not China either, at least that's for now.
One century is just a page in history 💯REAL LIFE 💯 should be considered a universal truth/mentality/etc, it help our politics and goals considerably more to have this perspective on time and progress , etc
This is great! There is a lot of historical animosity and mistrust between China and Russia that is often overlooked here in the west, for a long time they were barely on speaking terms.
1) For what China thinks, people often make the mistake of just poking few possibilities. Everyone agrees that China is a huge and complex country. Hence there is millions of ways of Chinese Thinking. The question is which thinking is more important. For my personal views here are the order of priority. 1) China's number one priority is Economic Growth and its huge challenges (including Covid) and this War is very bad for World Economy. Hence if China can decide, they will prefer not having this war. 2) China always treats Crisis as opportunity. Since this war already started, China will try to take full advantage from it as much as possible Even though they know China is a Net Loser on This Event.
"Hence there is millions of ways of Chinese Thinking." - is that really true, though? There is only one way of thinking - the official way, of the party. And that is decided, in the end, by only one chinese person: the one at the top. The million other ways don't matter.
@@ElijsDima If that is True CCP lost its war long time ago when it was really weak or up against the most power nations on earth like US and Soviet. The power of CCP is such that after it made the decision, it could executed it with One Mind (excellent ability), however before the decision it consulted with any kinds of ideas. Also once it was clear a policy was not working, it changed course quickly, mainly because the thorough discussion before hand (so they know how to change course). You need study CCP's history more. I am not saying the past can predict 100% the future. Future will be different from the past, even though it is the continuation of the Past. But your view of China/CCP does not even fit the Past, some there is no ground to stand on to predict the future.
@@ElijsDima Not really . You have to change your opinion of China and CCP. BOth are very conscious of the needs of the people far far more than ANY SO CALLED WESTERN DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM vs Chinese democratic system. That is why China under CCP changes with the needs of the people very much in contrast to western esp US democratic system which never changes and cares more of the 1% and still continuing. Actions by China even on giants like Alibaba , big tech , super rich etc proves my point.
@@ElijsDima That is where you error my friend, where you underestimate the grass-root ingenuity in China. That said, you are not alone in this as the Chinese government does as well. To be honest, China has a vibrant private sector economy (it’s largest tech companies are private, it’s best car & EV companies are also private) despite not because of many government policies so I believe the grass-route would find its way around and remain vibrant. And their views does matter and will get heard one way or another. As the Chinese slang goes: “you’ve got your policy above, we have our counter measures below (上有政策，下有对策）”. The Chinese grassroots would get their voices heard through its collective actions.
I found you several weeks ago, and i rly like how you explain topic in such a good speach hmm temper and focusing on 3 major points. I would like to see also some explanation or view about older topics. West has its "bias" and perhaos some of these topics wouldnt be "appreciated" by the employer, but i would like to see some points about war in Libya, Iraq. War in Iraq also was kinda illegitimate and Libya was even more complicated with involment of some arabic countries, US, France etc.
He made a lot of sense until that last statement. A country with an imperialistic agenda will use dependency as leverage/permission to expand into the territories of others, e.g. Russia. China is laying claim to the entire S. China Sea, to Taiwan and to several islands belonging to others.
Then US is the biggest imperilist, weaponing everything. Of course, big power seeks leverage to project their influence. China is not only a big power it is a super power. How can you equal China to some small countries with just 1-2 million population. Are you out of your mind?
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This has been such a fascinating series! Thank you, from all sides this has been just so insightful.
Great series, very clear, precise and thought-provoking. Would be excited to see more episodes on topics of Ukraine (the whole series is obviously very much about Ukraine, but still, it could be interesting to hear your observations of Ukrainian perspective). Also on the UK as it took the leading and unique role in supporting Ukraine. Thank you very much for your work!
Interesting lecture series thus far. Fascinating to hear this perspective, impressive guy. Many questions come to mind but better to park them until the end of the series - ranging from geo-strategic to tactical in nature.
Alexander Stubb is douchebag. Political animal without anyting unique, except always 3 points. His brain can process barely three things. He failed spectacularly (like in his politics).
Napoleon Bonaparte: Never interfere your enemy, when he is making a mistake.
1. China will give Russia leverage to fight.
2. Russia will fight like it fought first Crimean war.
3. After bankrupsy, Russia must start selling land assests in far east #Enter China bid
This is Chinese game plan.
@@pexxajohannes1506 not necessarily land, but the resources under it. And that's good enough for China; a near unlimited piggy bank of natural resources.
That would be more in keeping with their tributary vs territorial style. They wrote Sun Tzu in the time of Alx the Great.
This guy, condemns Russia and Syria as "rogue states". The US/UK is rogue for a long time...
Then claims China which is fascist and has minorities in concentration camps committing geocide and this asshole does not mention how evil China is. China is one of the most repressive places in the world!
Coward!
If you're interested in continuing this series, I would like to see your views on the U.S., and how you think the polarization of U.S. politics will affect the war, especially if the Republicans win control of Congress and/or the White House over the next few years.
He's just a parrot. Doesn't matter if the Reps win except for public perception. It's why they couldn't have Trump win the last election. With the exact same things happening if he were President now, trust in government would be beyond repair.
What a brilliant mind! Wow! Thank you Professor from South Africa 🇿🇦. I listened to all your lectures. So insightful. Please keep them coming
Another insightfull video about the geopolitical we are going through. Cheers from Canada !
Thank You. For your entire series, I appreciated 1.) your format 2.) reference to outside resource eg Marti Kari 3.) a non North American view. Hope to hear more …🤠
what does that suppose to mean :D Do you think for mister Stubb the american culture is an open book...not having any secrets for him ??? I would be very SURPRISED if that was the case
if it acts like an amateur , walks like an amateur and speaks like an amateur... I GUESS SO ! :)
@@kukulroukul4698 That's the best feature of "American culture." we are by definition, "an open book." Our history and our process of governance is well known throughout the world. That is not to say that the US government doesn't have its secrets, but we've always been pretty open as to what our goals are in economic and foreign policy. That is one of the simultaneous advantages/disadvantages of being an democratic free society. Especially when contrasted to the more autocratic, dictatorial countries like Russia and China. Professor Stubb is obviously very familiar with the Western model of governance. He also has a lot of insights on the Eastern approaches as well. That's why this lecture series has been so illuminating. I love his methodical and well reasoned approach to all of the topics so far.👍
I see you mastered Stubb's three points he's famous for:D
Thank you, this is a very interesting set of lectures. However, I feel it unfair not to have a separate video about Ukraine, about its history, mentality and leadership. Like you treat Ukraine as an object, but not a subject in this war.
Very thoroughly enjoying this. So great to hear an opinion that matches mine; that russia is an aggressor and even if Ukraine is a corrupt nation, putin must he stopped.
Fantastic lecture. Thank you for this mind opening world evaluation.
Great points. Your opinions are well justified and supported + balanced.
Keep up the great work.
Really appreciate this European assessment of china. I suggest reading some Lee Kuan Yew’s analysis of us china relations and the future of that relationship
Your analysis on China spot on. The government and its people have long memories and they know their history very well. This is a country with more than 5,000 years of history of which its people are direct descendants from those 50 centuries ago. People are proud of its past but not imperialistic. Continuity is important, so does mutual respect. Hope you could do another episode and a longer one, to delve deeper into the many aspects briefly covered in this episode. Thank you
_The government and its people have long memories and they know their history very well. This is a country with more than 5,000 years of history of which its people are direct descendants from those 50 centuries ago._
This, or statements similar, are so frequently trotted out about the Han Chinese that it has become a tired trope. Knowing history, learning from anything from that history about what to do/not what to do in future or believing in history being your future are three entirely different things. If anything, this tired trope was/is/will be the eternal Albatross hanging around China's neck and far from being it's greatest strength, is actually it's greatest weakness.
*History is a Trap*
If you believe in a cyclical version of history, then China is doomed to repeat an endless cycle. (Traditional view: The Three Kingdoms "Long united the Empire must divide. Long divided the Empire must unite". Mandate of Heaven. Nothing new under the sun.) If you believe your own history is a Tyranny from which you will escape through a linear, historical, march of progression (New view: Smash the four olds, CCP, historical determinism) then only the future will prove this as history. Either way, _you are still a prisoner of your history._
TL;DR Version
The Paradox of History
Are we trapped in History?
History will tell
or
We are not trapped in History
History will prove this
That above comment is a bunch of hot bunk
China not imperialist
Yeah
@@Taojas Technology may progress linearly, but human nature does not change. Therefore, history if not repeats, rhymes. History is cyclical. Those who believe otherwise act unwisely thinking they are wise, and soon disappear from history altogether.
Most fascinating lecture on foreign affairs I’ve listened to… maybe partly because of the worlds current situation. Your comment about ‘is democracy a stable institution’ is really on point. The US is a world event ‘one off’…. it’s currently…. a gyroscope spinner that is out of balance. The entire world needs to think how it will effect each person…if it crashes. Interdependence, as you said…. is probably critical…. to keep that gyro from crashing…. on the negative side…. most of the world is leaning heavily on that gyro…. which pushes it to crash faster! Your foreign policy expertise is fascinating to listen to….again… thank you for sharing!! 🌻🌻
What a delight, keep up the great work Alex! Much appreciated
A simply outstanding lecture series on the geopolitical subsumption of Russia's attack on Ukraine! Highly recommended.
Absolutely the best round-up out there. Thank you Alex/EUI
He was a lobbyist for Monsanto's Round-up use extension in the EU.
Much appreciated. Work in progress. Right now crafting stuff on power in the 21st century.
Japan was supposed to be the next superpower in the 1980's. How did America contain them?
@@farzana6676 US didn't contain then as Japan is an ally. Japan has the same demographic problem as most industrialized nations in that it's population is getting older and older.
On the military side, Japan does have the 2nd strongest navy in the world and works very closely with the US Navy.
@@Rob_F8F I think you are highly mistaken. Chinese navy is almost as large as the US navy.
@@farzana6676 I stand corrected. That said. A large percentage of PLAN ships are small and of the previous generation's design and technology (this not including the truly old coastal defense stuff that they go rid of years ago).
The JMSDF vessels are mostly modern, with three 4 new light carriers (DDH), the Aegis destroyers, and the modern attack subs.
Thank you for offering Rana Mitter as a source of further reading on China as well as the other texts.
Thank you-also thanks for the valuable, recent interview on France 24.
Thanks Alex. I really enjoy listening to these lectures. Your appearance on Sky news bought me here
Great lectures in general, but lots of specific points to take issue with. One: "Chiha knows its history". I teach at a major US university & work with lots of students from Chine. It's amazing how little of Chinese history they know. Chinese leaders may be different.
yeah hes more often wrong than right.
I think you are right for those young students who have been busy with their exam-oriented education system. I studied engineering and when I was young, I really didn't have much knowledge of history. But you know, you can then learn your history here and there, everyday, after finishing your education. At least this what I've seen.
@@jiaxinchen6467 yes knowledge of history obviously depends on what the student specializes in
Exactly. With an engineering background, I'm still poor in history knowledge, but I think I've picked up knowledge of many major historic events and periods, etc.
Because your students are from Chine, not China. 😅
Your students are lucky that you're willing to share your knowledge, insight, & experience with them. I know very little of Finland, & those that I've met were living in the US at the time. Thanks for posting these mini lectures & allowing an old man a small amount of continuing education.
I do wish I had your faith in the current generation. In the US, it seems that chasing diversity & fairness has unfortunately weakened what little moral character & strength Americans had.
Tack för jättefina föresläsningar gällande kriget i Ukraina. Presentationerna är tydliga och lätta att förstå och framställningarna pedagogiska. Hoppas på mera material i fortsättningen. Lycka till i fortsättningen.
This is really an interesting lecture. I also find Professor Alexander Stubb very fluent, confident and eloquent when he talks about many topics of Russia, Europe, America, Finland, transatlantic,WW I, WW II, war in Ukraine, and so on. But when it comes to the topic of China, he is obviously not so confident, and even has to look down at the manuscript many times. I am particularly interested in the details of professor's description of his two meetings with Xi Jinping, which reaffirmed my observations and judgments of Xi's personality. Thank you professor for the wonderful lecture.
The way people talk about China does not make sense to me. China is a rival, not an enemy. Sure, every rival is a potential enemy, so we need to have military analysts examining the scenarios that the commentariat likes to throw around. But being a potential enemy doesn't provide any particular reason to expect they'll become an actual enemy any time soon.
The relatively rule-based world order, combined with modern economics and technology, has meant that China could use soft power to exert greater hegemony over a larger area at less cost than any formal empire in history. China is the big winner under the status quo that Russia is trying to replace with nineteeth-century hard-power imperialism.
Why does basically every pundit think China wants to rearrange the world order into something less advantageous to China?
Thank so much to learn much from your historical teaching of Europe, Asia, and the united states.Really I appreciate you. Next I look forward to learn more about the Africa link to the world. Now Africa continent has brighter future in the technology world ? Thanks once again for your teaching.
Your take on 'what is China thinking' takes into account 1969 issue between Russ-China as a reason for some distrust between the two but you do not mention the 100 years of humiliation at the hands of 'NATO' countries. China will not be surprised at the ganging up or unity of these countries as they've experienced it first hand during those years. As you say historical context in China is different to the west and those 100 years is very significant in their evaluation of relationships with western nations.
It's very interesting to hear the comments of people like yourself, ambassador Bill Taylor and my own relatives in Poland compared to people like Noam Chomsky and John Mearsheimer. The latter two blame NATO expansion for this war. The people who have actually lived next to Russia want to join NATO. Thanks for the series.
Totally agree with all your points here, especially about Taiwan. I was living there during 2000 when we had the elections where a pro independence candidate was the front runner. It was very intense with the threats coming from Jiang Zemin but Xi seems to have nothing but patience for the long game and hopefully the response to Ukraine will be a deterrent. My biggest frustration with China is how comfortable they are with saying one thing and doing another. For example, many Sanctions are already being completely circumvented by China in the same way intellectual property rights are completely ignored.
It's like there are earth inside earth meaning china is core of earth.
great lession
as a viewer from china, my personal answer to Prof Stubb's 3 questions:
1) we don't support the war, but we don't hope Russia to lose either;
2) based on 1, we will not support Russia in military (i.e., support weapons) directly, but find a way to make sure Russia will not collapse.
3) to achieve the above 2 targets, China prefers to support Russia through economic channels.
also, China supports Russia, not because we want to fight against Ukraine, EU or NATO. The reason is China will be in danger, and definitely be the next target of US, if Russia collapsed. Therefore, we need a strong neighbor: Russia, stands with us to face US.
Thank you for your openness for us. What my country did in the event of Ukraine is wrong. And I hated for them. But I thank you for your openess of mindset to discuss things. It is really kind and warming
Keep up the good work Stubby. HSE EMBA Grad
Good content and wonderfully delivered, well done! Thank you
His proclivity to explore is that of an ancient explorer from a principality from circa bce. Yet his tendency of benevolence is that of an ancient explorer from a municipality from circa ad. Nonetheless, shall your creative prowess prosper and the tides of history always in your favor.
Thanks so much for your great insight. Very helpful and informative.
as usual: great mini lecture! thanks mr. Stubb!
Europe is not a superpower because a superpower can not be under occupation from another superpower so in reality the EU is merely just a vehicle of United States hegemony that's how we see it.
You are confusing Europe with the EU. Ukraine is not part of the EU, so the EU is not under occupation.
@@jonasback7043 how many American soldiers do you have in Germany,Poland,the Baltic States,Romania, Bulgaria etc, how many EU forces do you have in the United States of America or on American soil we are not stupid you know it only confirms one thing and that is the fact that the EU is weak.
When values are aligned, a relationship can last forever.
I think what you said about Xi thinking 'See, Democracies are always so unstable, they don't work' which reinforces not just Xi and Chinese leaders thoughts but the thoughts of ALL or most governments led by Autocrats. It's been said Democracies come with baggage and it takes constant work to make them successful but it is worth it. So looking from the outside in, Democracies look like they don't work because all Autocrats see is protests, people publicly criticizing government or leaders which looks like chaos and instability whereas what is really happening is Democracy working by giving voice-without fear-to every single person. It is because these Autocrats who live in countries who NEVER had a true Democracy just do NOT understand what it truly is. I may hate what my neighbor says and stands for but I will fight anyone for my neighbor's right to say it. That is just not in China or Russia's mindset. AND as far as 'Friendship without Limits', that was definitely BEFORE Russia invaded Ukraine. I think if the war had gone the way Russia thought then what China did or thought would be moot. I DO think that every month that Ukraine fights back and regains territory and the abominable way the Russian military has performed has suddenly added definite limits to their friendship. This was more than evident at the Shanghai Conference. Xi and India made it quite clear that they were not happy and did not like the way Russia was handling it. They made Putin stand alone waiting for them when it is usually the other way around. Instead of being the leader like usual, Putin was definitely made to look like the Junior Partner of the Alliance that he is now. Putin has no economy, no military and if he didn't have Nukes, Russia would be going backwards towards Third World status.
The only thing I think Stubb has wrong here, is the presumptive ascendency of China. We're a lot closer to peak China than peak USA. China, as we're seeing now, has such major demographic, financial, and economic structural headwinds in front of it, plus an unwillingness to do the transformations that would yield power to the populace (to foster consumption) because it would be at the cost of the CCP's power, that we'll see stalling, sputtering, and perhaps even regression from now on. How can the CCP, which is committed to it's own power, give away any of it's 50+% share of the economy back to the people, which would result in them having the power to demand more choice. Ideologically the do not have it in them, not without a full breakdown of the entire system (slowly, but eventually).
He is right for against decoupling from China. The main reason is that it will cause the greatest Recession in human history for both West and China.
@Modi WhinyThePoor And ASEAN's biggest exporting partner is still West. West is still the Richest part of the World. Hence if it goes into deep recession, the world will come down with it.
@Modi WhinyThePoor I know that. But they all make most money from Exporting to the West.
Most of China over 35 years old grew during Den’s period. As such, they believe integrating with the world help bring prosperity to China.
As in US, Europe and else where in the world, the youth are more radical (more influenced by Xi). They believe that China should claim its rightful place in the world and by force if necessary. If the West start to decouple with China, they would see this as justification of their view.
@Modi WhinyThePoor My bad, miss spelled his name. Could never pick the right one between “Den” and “Deng”. Not now, not then.
But if you actually follow any Chinese recent history, you would know I was talking about Deng Xiaoping (邓小平). Here is his wiki. I hope TH-cam doesn’t eat it (replace * with dot).
en*m*wikipedia*org/wiki/Deng_Xiaoping
@Modi WhinyThePoor You are showing your ignorance again. Every item is different. At basic level, there are high value added item and the others, like commodity. Everyone wants to get into the higher profit part of the trade. Luckily, unlike you Chinese leaders know that. It makes most money trading with US first and then EU directly or through other countries like Vietnam.
Great series. The war in Ukraine clearly undermines the development of the BRI and trade with Europe, at the displeasure of China.
Please do an presentation on "What Finland will do in case of Russian attack given no article 5 NATO Ratification"
Moi! Kiitos videosta!
Oon Ukrainalainen ja onpa meillä paljon kysymyksiä nykyään. Tuleeko videoanalyysi Ukrainasta? Sen näkökulmasta ja tulevaisuudesta.
On jo esimerkiksi BBC:n dokumentaalinen elokuva, jossa käsitellään Ukrainan Maidanin historiaa. Jos siis video Ukrainasta on tulossa, voin tarjota mun apua, jos on pakko kääntää englanniksi jonkun pätkän jostakusta lähteestä, esimerkiksi. Tai ehkä voisin antaa yleisiä vihjeitä esimerkiksi siitä, mitä tavalliselle ukrainalaiselle opetetaan koulussa Venäjästä tai Neuvostoliitosta, jotta en ole subjektiivinen.
Ukrainassa me uskomme Ukrainan voittoon, mut mitä tulee sen jälkeen? Pelkään tulevia vuosia, itse asiassa.
Kirjoitin suomeksi toivottavasti kiinnittääkseni huomion. Opiskelin sitä pari vuotta, mut en ole sekä opiskellut että käyttänyt sitä yli vuoden.
@@geopolitiikkajasota4404, kiitos 🙂
Awesome
As a former FM of Finland, I am curious what your thoughts are about the Evergrande financial crisis?
Great episode. How about India? Is it possible to see a lecture on this? Also the longer effects of the war in like Africa and South America. Thanks!
Yes, would also be curious about insights on India.
same, india is a future superpower. I would like to see one for Turkey as well.
What he fails to capture is that the main focus in China regarding Russia-Ukraine conflict is the role the Anglo-Saxon (the US and the UK) and the Jew (with East European background, active in the military industrial complex and neocon/neoliberal) play in terms of their century old's routine of balance of powers and divide and conquer to prevent the regional integration in Eurasia by weakening any regional hegemon (e.g. France, Prussia, Germany, USSR, Russia, China, India, Ottoman). The EU on the other hand is interpreted as a puppet manipulated by the Anglo-Saxons and Jews, and is a dividing union that can barely make decisions based on its own interest.
@@easternstrategist5276 how many times are you going to post your antisemitism rant? Go away.
@@Grak70 The West is most racist one in the world.
The best book I've read on China is "Wild Swans: Three Daughters of China"
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Mostly I agree with what is mentioned. However, I beg to differ on the following 3 points:
1- EU is not a power since EU can't decide it's own, it doesn't have an independent foreign policy. The EU's policy decision is made in the Washington.
2- I agree that Russian is declining power, however, it has a great military capability, at the same time Asia is rising therefore Asia need Russia for its security against the west. Which is Russia doing right now.
3- The EU's parliament has stopped the free trade deal with China so it has consequences. The actual powers are the US and China therefore EU, Africa, middle east and South America's will be having tough times in the future. It is just the beginning.
Neutral and Opportunistic
Stubb is saying that western concessions towards China must continue so that Russia remains as isolated as possible and pressured to the maximum degree. But how long can the US afford to be granting these concessions and losing economic ground to China? This is the question. Let alone the issue of Taiwan.
In your dreams. China has to support politically Russia because China is the US next target. US will arm Ukraine 'to the last Ukranian standing' to destroy Russian at any price economic Sanctions as well. Russians prepared for this war over 8 years since Nato was not prepared to acknowledge Russias concerns of Nato expansion. Nato has blood on its hands in many countries like Serbia, Lybia bombing civilian cities. Sweden Finland have made a deal with Turkey with conditions which Turkey will accept them as members only when they are met. No guarantee that will happen and in the meantime the Fins and Swedes have exposed their countries into danger and cut off from supply of gas and oil coming from Russia. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. This guy reminds me a lot of Stolenburg. A puppet doing the bidding of his masters. Watched Stolenburg and his arrogance is there for all to see.
Impressive,
Never knew that, thanks for clarifying.
Wonderful analysis, however I would be curious to hear his comments on the challenges that China faces in the coming two to three decades, namely its demographic crisis as the most rapidly aging population in the world, the water shortage crisis, looming economic crisis in the form of the housing market, COVID management, and finally its recent drastic foreign policy change (namely, burning all of their political bridges in lieu of generating nationalism). Many economists look at the China as potentially being so much under threat that it may not emerge of the next super power on par with how the US was for decades.
Chinese attitude to politics is philosophical more so at the highest level and the attitude of China watchers has not changed over decades
Meanwhile Europe and the us is stagnating due to saturating with no colonies
Europeans and us is mainly preoccupied with the future of South America and Africa
Much discussion and concern about China Yet there is a rising power in this world that seems to go unnoticed by many. It is largely a peaceful nation, but it is a rising power that will greatly influence the next generation. It is the world's largest democracy. It is poised to replicate the Chinese miracle, but in it's own independent way. In a few years, India will be discussed more and more as it takes over much of the world's manufacturing and begins to develop mew products for the world.
If you know Peter Zeihan's work, he largely shares your opinion of India as a rising power that will dominate the Indian Ocean and the trade routes through it. It also has a much healthier demographic than China.
Except, it sill has people defecating on the side of the road and a caste system. And their ecology is an absolute disaster. So, there's that.
It would be interesting to see how India grow in the next 10 years. Protectionism and being the largest democracy country could be the only reason that slow down its growth. Good luck, India.
I don’t think it’s good to say it out loud, when you are still growing. Vietnam is growing faster, and they lay low.
@@vinamiu7257 And,......they work hard.
This Guy is extremely smart and should run the US and Canada and have people like him run the Nato sides of things.
so smart he blathers despit his admitted ignorance of the topic...
I'd like here your view regarding France and Germany and there roles in the future the EU and NATO.
"...the common enemy that unites Russia and China is, for Russia more Europe and a little bit the US, whereas for China more the US"
This surprises me considering the map Alexander presented in the previous lecture, depicting Russia surrounded by US from space, sea and NATO neighbors.
At least in rhetoric, Russia seems only as concerned with Europe as US is able to exercise its influence there.
If you look at a map of Asia Pacific, you will see China surrounded by South Korea, Japan, non-core Japanese islands, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and India. Australia is nearby and the presence of the US is everywhere.
All these nations are either US allies or opponents to China.
As for its border with Russia, let's just say that it's not the same as the US/Canada border.
@@Rob_F8F Yeah, my surprise was more that Russia sees Europe as a greater enemy than the US.
I'd be interested to see Mr Stubb do a video on European politics. I was surprised to see him retweet a McFaul tweet celebrating the defeat of an EPP colleague in Slovenia. The Slovenian PM was one of the first to visit Kyiv, he's not a Putin sympathiser.
Yes of course he is visiting Ukraine because they both countries Slovenia and Ukraine are the same !
They don't like South !
I am not a historian when we were growing up in srilanka Influenced by British we don’t know anything about Eastern European history. My first foreign land was Moscow from there I traveled all Eastern Europe . Except Finland & ice land .
I hope there comes an episode about the US‘s interest in your perspective.
15:00 - 15:50 - 16:11 💯real life💯 thank you for spending the time to create and share this collectively beneficial content my guy 🙏🏾
I am curious which side would the EU take if a war/conflict between China and the US takes place.
Thank you for another great video, and especially for your final piece of advice, which I think is hugely important. If I may suggest a video for everyone that touches the topic, look up the story "I, the pencil", preferably as retold by Milton Friedman. I was very fascinated by it the first time I heard it, and truer words are rarely spoken.
3. Question: China will fail due to is inner disaccords.
This has been a fascinating series of lectures on contemporary geo-politics. I think the estimations of China are overly optimistic though, particularly in relation to super-power status. They are going to struggle to feed their population and keep the lights on over the next 6-12 months, and their neighbouring countries are becoming far more cost-competitive to do business with. They have massive financial issues about to cause an implosion in their economy and significant demographic issues with a rapidly aging population. They have already passed their high-water mark for at least the next 1-2 generations.
??? China has enough food in their storages to feed their population for 2 years.
Absolutely correct and they suffer immensely from brain drain and the exodus of many young people / families that don't like the autocratic system, what intelligent person would?
Struggling to feed population? Keep the lights on? What kind of news are you reading?
I've been to China several times during the pandemic and there aren't any of these issues going on. Shanghai has had a bad month but that's hardly representative of larger China.
China has not been the cost effective place to manufacture for a very long time. Even Steve Jobs mentioned that China is the best place to manufacture even when it wasn't the most cost efficient place. It's because their manufacturing infrastructure makes it so easy to do so.
China is already bigger than the US GDP PPP. They're starting to actually innovate on top of the tech they stole. I can't see the US sustaining our seat as number one economically unless we have proper leadership.
@@Gongolongo You've got some good points. Ease of doing business certainly can't be discounted. The blackouts I was referring to were the ones in 2021 starting around May and continuing until around November last year. That said, the point I was making above was not about the past, or even current situation, but the impacts current events both within China and in Europe will have on China in the future. Food shortages, grain in particular, are going to be an issue for a number of countries, and China will be one of them.
@@user-en2tl2fw1c Only time will tell.
Thank you.
Thanks for a great talk.
EU and the West must take manufacturing back from China . People need jobs and producing masses of goods so that people can have 20 pair of jeans instead of 10 has other costs such environmental war and low wages, inability to buy a home etc etc. It is not about cutting China out, is about increasing EU production jobs and wealth to accommodate the need of a system if countries that has taken massive amounts of refugees and yet is still unable to offer employment to all of its own citizen.
What about the under the table maneuvering for the gas and crops acquisitions? As for the three things to read that mentioned in the lecture, you might also need to look into and understand the century old humiliation inflicted by the west, and by the Japanese imperialist on the average Chinese citizens minds. They remember just as you remember 911.
Professor Stubb, please post content on Rumble. Thank you!
I love listening this guy.🥰
Very interesting. Thanks for this
When he said “do not decouple with China”, it sounded almost like saying do not decouple with Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. It really shows how ignorance are some of the western politicians on China. When you have an increasingly assertive China that is very ambitious in creating a new world order the doesn’t care too much about liberty and democracies, it is not the West who holds the keys in genuine cooperation in the grand scheme of things. China is increasingly happy to use it’s economic, political or even military might to force the democratic world to act according to her own ways of thinking and behaviour. The comment is just a hollow statement when you can’t find a meaningful way to work with China without sacrificing the democratic values. Worse still, this dilemma applies to almost all areas in the relationship between China and the West since the past 3 or 4 years.
Except if you watched the last episode he said he is hoping the next generation of russians or the current youth of russians will some day bring Russia back to world table as changed country. He didnt say anything that we should keep them around in near future despite of war.
In this video he said they will be likely left out of for a while due to the ongoing war and since there isn't war with China we shouldn't agravate 1 by decoupling because it's the european markets that are important for china to keep and europe isn't Chinas current "enemy" like they see USA as.
If thats gone then they are more likely to act since they've already lost it. Then they would be more likely to attack Taiwan or cooperate with Russia.
Atleast thats how I understood this.
It's not just a matter of the next superpower. You know, if East and West communicated seriously, something like the Renaissance would come about. A whole new era will be opened. If there is a technological revolution in the middle, then mankind will come to a new era.
Your views are conservative. But anyone familiar with Western history knows that the rise of Western capitalism stemmed from the Renaissance. There are dangers in this conflict, but also opportunities.
The time for limitless exchange between the east and the west has very likely ended. Look at what Russia and China are doing these days. They are determined to build a new world order without democracy and freedom. Your opinions are only hollow statements without a practical way to change their imperialistic mindsets.
Like so many, I am hooked on this series and your perspective on the world especially considering your personal first hand experience and knowledge. I would doubt XI Jinping has much if any respect for Putin, Putin on the other hand should have absolute respect for Xi Jinping. What caught my attention most was when you compared China and Russia back in the 1980s as almost equals with regards trade and commerce and now 40 years later, where they stand today. Putin's invasion and War in Ukraine will fundamentally change the world we knew into a very different world will will know in the future. But first the war must end, Putin must go and Russia needs to get its house in order and try and gain some respect and trust from everyone, including I believe China. I would argue that Xi Jinping is right, western democracy is broken maybe not in all countries but certainly in the UK and USA as to many policies are politically driven with the goal on winning elections not always what is best long term for the country. Russia does not do politics it has a Putin system, whilst Chinese politics is fascinating as much as its ever evolving adapting. If only Russia had followed a similar path, we would not be in the largest European War since WW2 with 19 million displaced and nearly 5 million Ukrainian refugees. This War has also been a wake up call for the EU Europe as a whole and the NATO Alliance. Russia is unquestionably a military superpower but certainly not a trading superpower whilst the EU was in my view lost trying to find an identity and fighting amongst itself over who has control over what. The EU should be so much that its not, its a mess but hopefully Putin has given them energy and focus to work together and deliver what 447 million people hoped, a prosperous and safe future.
Uselessoldman, it's an appropriate name, that is one reason why Ukraine is where it is, like poland, you produce wheat they produce apples. I have a lot more to say but I don't have FREE time
becareful though. most powerful countries simply don't follow any law. They have the same characteristics of mafia and criminal organization. lol
Good summary. The war in Ukraine has caused a lot of rethinking in Beijing on multiple fronts, including how close they should-be with the pariah Putin. Xi had felt for a long time that Russia was useful in creating a new world order where authoritarianism is a legitimate alternative to democracy. He was even beginning to think that their system was superior to democracy. Now the democratic world has shown to be united and making decisions based principles, the whole calculus of the world has to be redone. (Simultaneously, the fact that China's method of controlling the virus is proving to be flawed and inadequate must be taking away from the sense of superiority) China will do what is best for China and they will prioritize business and connection to the EU and US over Russia, who has turned out to be more of liability than a trusted partner.
actually China doesnt care about ideology at all. and actually the US doesnt care about ideology either. it has all kind of allies,even Nazi and Fascism. "democracy" is a good weapon though.
None of this is correct. China will wait for the EU to fall back into disunity in the coming years and will keep Russia close. The EU needs China much more than China needs the EU. The EU gives China paper for real goods. Now that there are restrictions for technology transfers, the EU produces nothing that China wants. So ends deeper trade relations. On the other hand, Russia sells commodities, assets of real value. China will value Russia much more than EU.
Love the lecture series. I was wondering that with China having a long memory what do you think are the chances that China will revisit the Sino-soviet border conflicts after the the Ukraine war and attempt to reclaim the lands the Soviet union took from them?
It will be negotiated in the future.
I agree with FHD's comment that there is potentially a chance for negotiation in the future.
But any negotiations would be in a friendly manner, and with win-win results in mind.
That's because both countries are worried about an attack by America. They can't afford to aggravate one another.
ChinaSongsCollection in the past russia forced china into agreements when they were strong now russia seems to have become a liability
@@KarateDrSanDiego That was the Soviet Union. Russia simply inherited the unequal treaties. China and Russia signed a 25 year friendship agreement in which China will not negotiate the unequal treaties. After 25 years China will resolve the remaining unequal treaties one by one. That's part of Chairman Mao's bucket list.
@@KarateDrSanDiego Yes, again agree with FHD.
But again, as I mentioned before, it will be in a friendly manner, and with win-win results in mind. Neither party can afford otherwise.
The talk misses out the Chinese territorial claims to their past empire high point, building islands in the S.China sea and not only building a military but having it aimed at the Pacific and US allies.
Wanting "a little bit of instability in Europe" is highly threatening, already people were souring on Chinese goods.
Similarly the repression in Hong Kong shows a lack of pragmatism.
Taiwan's TSMC are global leaders in semi-conductors, making the stakes much higher than in the past. A Chinese invasion would destroy much high tech production.
What he fails to capture is that the main focus in China regarding Russia-Ukraine conflict is the role the Anglo-Saxon (the US and the UK) and the Jew (with East European background, active in the military industrial complex and neocon/neoliberal) play in terms of their century old's routine of balance of powers and divide and conquer to prevent the regional integration in Eurasia by weakening any regional hegemon (e.g. France, Prussia, Germany, USSR, Russia, China, India, Ottoman). The EU on the other hand is interpreted as a puppet manipulated by the Anglo-Saxons and Jews, and is a dividing union that can barely make decisions based on its own interest.
Agree and I find Stubb talking points more in line with China before Xi. Now they are less predictible not as much as Russia of course. But much more so than earlier. Probably Stubb is a freemarket guy that believe that this is very important for world peace. It did not work at all with Russia as he pointed out and caused a big problem for Europe that they have to deal with now. I find less interdependence to be good but not too much of course.
Your view is based on the western MSM, you are missing the local people's mind. I live in HK, and "repression" is too much soft, I hope all the domestic terrorists put in jail, but the court in HK is influrenced by UK(what a disater that HK is still in some form of colony of UK).
@@jt7725 Your post actually confirms that China is breaking the treaty and failing in Hong Kong. Propaganda of dictatorships has never been truthful.
@@hurmur9528 as a Chinese, I actually agree with you. Xi and his monopoly on “wisdom” puts lots of uncertainty into this. The talking point here more represents Den Xiaoping’s thinking and all the presidents in between were more of an extension of Den. Xi on the other hand wants to replace Den as the ideology leader of modern China.
Den has patience and choose the route of integration with the rest of the world. That gives China its prosperity now. Xi on the other hand had been trying to reverse that trend.
The principal opposing player in the Korean War was China. Allied forces rolled North Korea's army back over the border six months after it invaded and occupied 90% of the south. There is debate as to whether MacArthur's subsequent push to the Chinese border triggered the second invasion or whether China would have entered the war regardless. China's invading army comprised ~1 million men. For the duration - 2 more years - the allies were outnumbered roughly 8-to-1 on the ground, with China adding another million to cover losses (exact numbers for Chinese deployments are unknown).
People/media/pundits/analysts miss the S. Korea / Ukraine connection because; 1) the Korean War has been generally forgotten; 2) S. Korea didn't become a liberal democracy until 35 years after the conflict ended. The Korean War was in fact hugely important, the only Cold War period that went hot between the major powers. Democracy/capitalism met communism - represented by China and the Soviet Union - on the battlefield and the forces of autocracy lost. The allies achieved stated goals and lost ~50,000 men in so doing while China conceivably lost 10x more.
Ukraine is Russia's South Korea. The principal differences thus far are 1) Ukraine's military has been much better prepared and capable; 2) Ukraine has not had the benefit of direct allied involvement. China and Russia (and seemingly every country not named America) take the long view of history. America's use of S. Korea as a means to hold China in check over the past 70 years isn't lost on either nation. Russia fears NATO bases in Ukraine because of what America has done in South Korea.
Putin is many things but stupid isn't one of them. The combination of American protection and democracy/capitalism enabled South Korea to flourish, becoming a technology and export powerhouse with a standard of living that's plainly embarrassing to the CCP. He knows that even if NATO stays out of a neutral Ukraine western capital will not be similarly restrained. Unavoidable comparisons between a rising Ukraine and a stumbling Russia will weaken his grip.
The Korean War is the piece of Cold War history in which Russia and China find their strongest basis for a common cause. There's no question China will support Russia for the duration regardless of human suffering.
Neither Russia or China are Communist anymore. The former has a ruling clique while the later has an a-ideological ruling party.
While both oppose American hegemony, they are not allies.
China will maximalize its own interests, only playing lip service to solidarity with Russia.
Anything that Russia gets from China will have been paid for with oil, gas or gold.
Insightful!
He said, in the last recommendation, "cooperations and interdependence is deterrence to confrontation". But everybody is blaming Germany for cooperations with Russia on energy sector. Isn't it double standard?
Is this something new?
The commerce with Russian is very one dimensional. It is quite a different story with China.
@@suisinghoraceho2403 How come it is one directional, check out this report from EU...
"In 2021, the total trade in goods between the EU and Russia amounted to €257.5 billion. The EU’s imports were worth €158.5 billion and were dominated by fuel and mining products. The EU’s exports in 2021 totalled €99.0 billion."
New subscriber
Amazing explanation.
I hope this will be an eye opener for them
I just subscribed this morning. It's contrarian to my thoughts, but it is not hysterical like much of the Western media and academia at the moment.
Bad choice of words, the correct western intelligence reports about Russia's invasion were described as hysterical.
China as a culture may think long term but I disagree with you in that the CCP thinks short term on it's decisions toward the primary goal of staying in power.
Totally agree. China as ruled by the ccp cannot sustain the house of cards it is built on. It is not thinking about the long terms; it is thinking about the next election/convention
A party that aims to remain in power is a party that thinks short term? You assume a multi-party system provides long term growth. This shows an ignorance of history.
I believe that China may hold more power over Europe than Russia, as lots of Western economies rely on China's output.
I think it's a question of perspective. One can say that the Chinese economy relies on Western inputs.
There is lays the interdependence.
If the West were to stop or curtail accepting Chinese exports, the Chinese economy would rapidly decrease or even contract. We are seeing this happen to Russia.
Not really, during the past 20 years of Putin term, Russia's main focus is to integrate with the West other than China. Just look at the trade, they trade way more with Europe compare to China. Russia's main energy export is to EU, not China either, at least that's for now.
One century is just a page in history 💯REAL LIFE 💯 should be considered a universal truth/mentality/etc, it help our politics and goals considerably more to have this perspective on time and progress , etc
We shouldn't decouple from China, but there's a strong argument that we should at least diversify. That, however, is easier said than done.
Excelllent as usual.
This is great! There is a lot of historical animosity and mistrust between China and Russia that is often overlooked here in the west, for a long time they were barely on speaking terms.
Not really.
@@2KSnSLifestyle it's called the Sino-Soviet split
@@chuckinchina6926 It lasted only during the cold war. Since then the China Russia relationship has grown more and more.
@@chuckinchina6926 The Ukraine crisis will only benefit China at the expense of the West.
@@chuckinchina6926 On the contrary Europeans have been killing Europeans for centuries. Ukraine is just another one.
You need to make an episode on Ukraine.
1) For what China thinks, people often make the mistake of just poking few possibilities. Everyone agrees that China is a huge and complex country. Hence there is millions of ways of Chinese Thinking. The question is which thinking is more important.
For my personal views here are the order of priority.
1) China's number one priority is Economic Growth and its huge challenges (including Covid) and this War is very bad for World Economy. Hence if China can decide, they will prefer not having this war.
2) China always treats Crisis as opportunity. Since this war already started, China will try to take full advantage from it as much as possible Even though they know China is a Net Loser on This Event.
We cannot allow China, an undemocratic totalitarian society to rule the World.
"Hence there is millions of ways of Chinese Thinking." - is that really true, though? There is only one way of thinking - the official way, of the party. And that is decided, in the end, by only one chinese person: the one at the top. The million other ways don't matter.
@@ElijsDima If that is True CCP lost its war long time ago when it was really weak or up against the most power nations on earth like US and Soviet.
The power of CCP is such that after it made the decision, it could executed it with One Mind (excellent ability), however before the decision it consulted with any kinds of ideas. Also once it was clear a policy was not working, it changed course quickly, mainly because the thorough discussion before hand (so they know how to change course).
You need study CCP's history more.
I am not saying the past can predict 100% the future. Future will be different from the past, even though it is the continuation of the Past. But your view of China/CCP does not even fit the Past, some there is no ground to stand on to predict the future.
@@ElijsDima Not really . You have to change your opinion of China and CCP.
BOth are very conscious of the needs of the people far far more than ANY SO CALLED WESTERN DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM vs Chinese democratic system.
That is why China under CCP changes with the needs of the people very much in contrast to western esp US democratic system which never changes and cares more of the 1% and still continuing.
Actions by China even on giants like Alibaba , big tech , super rich etc proves my point.
@@ElijsDima That is where you error my friend, where you underestimate the grass-root ingenuity in China. That said, you are not alone in this as the Chinese government does as well.
To be honest, China has a vibrant private sector economy (it’s largest tech companies are private, it’s best car & EV companies are also private) despite not because of many government policies so I believe the grass-route would find its way around and remain vibrant. And their views does matter and will get heard one way or another. As the Chinese slang goes: “you’ve got your policy above, we have our counter measures below (上有政策，下有对策）”. The Chinese grassroots would get their voices heard through its collective actions.
was he referring to Helmut Schmidt ?
Well said
I found you several weeks ago, and i rly like how you explain topic in such a good speach hmm temper and focusing on 3 major points. I would like to see also some explanation or view about older topics. West has its "bias" and perhaos some of these topics wouldnt be "appreciated" by the employer, but i would like to see some points about war in Libya, Iraq. War in Iraq also was kinda illegitimate and Libya was even more complicated with involment of some arabic countries, US, France etc.
He made a lot of sense until that last statement. A country with an imperialistic agenda will use dependency as leverage/permission to expand into the territories of others, e.g. Russia. China is laying claim to the entire S. China Sea, to Taiwan and to several islands belonging to others.
Then US is the biggest imperilist, weaponing everything. Of course, big power seeks leverage to project their influence. China is not only a big power it is a super power. How can you equal China to some small countries with just 1-2 million population. Are you out of your mind?
Staying true to our values and staying connected with China are quite conflicting statements.