The Falls In Home Prices Are Accelerating: What Next?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 ต.ค. 2024
- Last Tuesday in my live show about the latest from our surveys, we walked through our scenarios, for property prices over the next 3 years, by each state. I’ll recap that segment from the show, but before I do here is a screen grab from Sydney Auctioneer Tom Panos, who says "The Sydney Real Estate Market is in a price fall. It’s a great time to buy in the next few months". Well, it’s certainly looking like a buyers’ market, but not sure I would rush in now. Even Albo switched from an auction to private treaty for the sale of his investment property in Dulwich Hill! As Tom Panos put it, "they are not going to get crazy bidding on the day".
Real Estate.com published an article on the 12th October 2024 with the title “$75k down in 3 months” The inner-city hotspots in freefall. The article referred to Brisbane.
Pressure on households is leading to a fall in consumption and savings. Second, consumer confidence is in the gutter, and third business investment is flat, suggesting that we may see unemployment rising ahead. In the light of that, I will let you decide which of our three scenarios looks most likely to eventuate. Oh and of course the RBA seems to be holding firm on higher for longer interest rates as bond rates also move higher.
So the bottom line, it’s a time for extra caution, especially as more investment properties on a net cash flow basis are under water. But as always its important to go granular and get the local data as each market is different, and also do due diligence on a property if you do decided to make an offer, as capital appreciation might be limited at best for the foreseeable future.
I will be discussing this further on my Monday Rant with Property Insider Edwin Almeida, so look out for that show tomorrow.
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its only made the news because agents want prices to keep climbing and are worried about their car repayments. Prices are still insane 🚬
Would you believe anything an agent says?
Got nothing to do with agents. Banks control it all agents are just middle man .. both vendors are greedy and buyers want to pay less they can. Simples. Banks let people borrow .. the banks control everything.. wake up ..
@@ashdivakaran9664 ever sold a house before?
@@moregoldmoregoldI think we found the real estate agent.
@@sportsfamily4569 I’ve sold many homes I owned and bought Bitcoin. I’m retired
I went to a home Auction 2 weeks ago in Brisbane. First one in a while. It's NO buyers market. Not even a thought bubble.
Prices are still very strong.
When I look at homes prices charts all I see is debt slavery and stupidity.
Into the hamster wheel … then chasing money to pay debts. Shit world they created yet people get sold into it
do a show on how easy it is to sell or buy a house without parasitic agents
So how do you buy a home? For a. Bank?
Best suggestion ever.
@@jonwijaya8539 so you want the banks to do it all. lol they own you already and you think it’s the agents. lol
Regional median house price is $640k.
Is this a joke?
Australia is a joke
I live in Thailand 🇹🇭
Can't afford house here
Not a joke. What's worse is many of the regional areas I looked at have high crime rates, limited work opportunities and some are in flood zones (eg. $679K to live in a flood zone in Gympie!) so insurance costs are phenomenal. Telling all the youngsters to just move out to the regions is not a solution.
When you factor in lack of job opportunities and if you can get a job much lower wages vs a capital city you’re probably better off financially staying in a capital vs moving regional.
Depends on the region….cant blanket it all… I made the regional move 6 years ago. Cleared my mortgage and got 3 homes plus change in the exchange!
Another 6-8 months should have a clear picture. Small business are struggling.
And being replaced by new immigrant businesses. Australians are being sold out.
I live in a waterfront suburb in Sydney and I have watched the market here for 10 years . I can verify a slowing in activity and a decline in unit prices by up to 15%. Sellers are renting because they didn't get what they wanted when they went to market.
Pop this bubble of all bubbles
Body corp ia the biggest acam.
Massive scam. Can’t believe people would wanna pay so much for body corp. it’s a rort
Im so over property market! I will by a hovercraft!
Almost 80% of people in Norway own their own home, more than 90% adoption of EV’s :
12.8 road deaths toll per 100,000 people USA Australia 4.54 per 100,000 Norway 2.14 and could be less than 1% once FSD is implemented next year , The current net migration rate for Norway in 2024 is 5.018 per 1000 population, a 0.79% decline from 2023 , great pension and cheap housing In Norway and great gas & oil export industry like Australia
And less freedom than USA or Australia. Pass.
our politicians will/have not learn/t anything from those Nordic countries..... People even trust politicians more in those Nordic countries. Australia has all the natural resources and has much better weather than the Nordic countries, but somehow the politicians have not absorbed all the good policies from those countries that would make Australia an even better place to live than it is today. In particular, the immigration intake and house prices are out of control. Also, the lack of our natural resources benefiting all the citizens rather than multinationals is another important difference between Australia and the Nordic countries.
EV plants are being closed all over the world. Car makers can't sell them. EVs are environmentally damaging junk. The battery technology isn't there yet.
@@DC-lw7dj Sycophants to foreign policy not our own. AU is not sovereign, it is that simple.
Norway has got its own problems. Some of the highest personal debt numbers in the world
Prices are going through the roof in the Hunter Valley !
Population is going through the roof as Well !
Martin only reports negative news and ignores the rest of the facts. He's been predicting a property price crash for the last 6 years 😂
Try watching the show - there is still a path to higher prices, though not the only scenario.
@@WalkTheWorldDFA I watched your show months ago predicting 30% price drops. Then prices went up 😂
Nobody could of accounted for all the grants, stimulus, mortgage holidays, immigration etc over the last 6 years, remove all of that and Martin would be on the money.
@@scottfree993 😂 that's a long list of excuses. So what you're saying is besides everything he got wrong he would have been right. A broken clock is right more often than mart
Why bother buying when prices are falling? Might as well wait
Now we know why albo sold one of his propertys
Prob because capital gains tax benefits & negative gearing tax benefits/ incentive (that drove up prices ) will come to an end!
Brissy still pumping. Went to new farm auction on weekend with 12 bidders and crowd of 30 plus people. Sold under the hammer.
A big fan Martin. Has been following you for several years. A market outlook on Hobart would be appreciated.
Thanks and noted…
Sydney eastern suburbs dont even need auctions anymore to get astronomical price. One giant money laundromat.
Apartment in a defective building sold 5.6 millions is a recent example.
From my point of view, downward price drops are often on the “lemons” you’ve mentioned. I have patience to wait and watch, thanks for the update Martin 👍
Units going down in the Ryde/Rhodes area.
With US commercial in freefall and the CPP is talking taxing overseas investments? Impossible that some might front run. 🤔What was the long term property price mean again?
It will go down. You can feel it in terms of money, and how people just dont lavish on spending. Business has taken a major hit. Theoretically can't keep going as most countries are in a recession and well this is just the lag from stimulus but its over. You can watch everyday how people behave on spending and see what they do. Slowly but surely R.I.P
The charts don't mean much unless you look at it compared to wages and clearance rates.
Have you considered how much would it cost to build an equivalent/quality home from in the past (say over 2 years ago ..) vs now ?
The blowout would be more than 50% that is if some could even be rebuilt?
What's switching from auction to private treaty do?
It tells you sentiment. If there arent enough interested buyers going to auction means disaster. Auctions means many buyers and lots of demand.
Their are a lot of houses in my area 4074 Brisbane for sale. They arn't selling.
Alot of people in that area mortgaged to the hilt.
And paid huge money and the houses need 200k spent on them.
Interesting. Is that because they are asking stupid prices even for the current market or they’re asking reasonable prices but still aren’t selling? All I hear about Brisbane is that prices continue to increase by the day.
Impressive as always. Thank you sir 🙏
So nice of you
Perth is still super-hot , WA labor also slowing down land release.
Albo's house was only worth $39k.
Prices are going through the roof in WA
Been held down for so long
Yeah but they are getting built faster than ever in history. Won’t take long before we have a glut.
Hi Martin, I thought it would be intriguing to see what gold prices are when you put out the yearly median home prices. It would be very int. Cheers great sh
Very good presentation thank you compulsory listening
So nice of you
Last quarter? So winter?
This could just be seasonal!
Really, it’s just about keeping the property spruik in the forefront of the news cycle.
I don't believe there will be falling home prices anymore... Albo has thrown Aussies to the wolves for the sake of spruiking his investment portfolio.its sickening.
25-30% market correction incoming…. 3-5 years going sideways and it will be 7 o’clock on the property clock again, time to buy
Thank you Martin
The government is to blame for home prices in Sydney. They are not doing enough to increase supply and instead they react with solutions that only increases the price further. The only hope for Sydney is that the RBA does not lower the interest rate and preferably increases it.
1,000,000 people immigrated in the last 18 months, might be a good reason for the issues 😂
How about reducing demand instead? A good start would be the crazy levels of immigration
I'm a builder and used to think this narrative until I learned that Australia has the second highest home building per capita in the world, so the supply is certainly not the issue. It's most definitely demand
We do not need more supply! Stop the foreign demand. All of it! The mass immigration, the international students, the 2 million + temporary Visas, the foreign buyers.
Do all of that, and we wouldn't even need to touch negative gearing. Prices would come down, and the ridiculous infrastructure projects could reduce, and allow the Building Industry and Trades to stabilise.
House in sydenham Victoria sold for 990k yesterday. Prices actually went up in the local
Also lower offers now being accepted
We were locked out in last few years on offers we’re accepted. Now having offers up to 41% being accepted. Think leveraged folks are tapped out along with other folks looking at what’s coming down the line and deciding to bail just before it gets here.
3 year forecast? If anyone I'd holding property for only 3 years that's too small a time horizon.
I'd love an analysis of price vs rental yield. If yield remains stable it'll keep investors in the game longwe
@4.35
Upward pressure on prices due to short supply, will not lead to contined price increases ss one might expect in my view
Many factors will negste thst, and even crash prices, is what I see
Global downturn
Greater unemployment
Inceasing rates of interest
Increasing costs of living
Leave alone the ww3 scenario
It is never what you expect or what seems logical thst comes around
Bubbles bursting in every assest class eill see a new dark, worse that the 1020's and it will lsst for decades
We sit on a knifes edge
You forgot interest rate drops which always cause an increase in property prices.
Seems like housing is still in a bubble
Australia doesn’t have to worry about WW3 like other countries. She is far away from where the bombing will take place.
@@superluminal89if it goes nuclear its lights out on humanity
Prices are still going up everywhere.
Scary scenario no matter which comes to fruition. Im looking out my kitchen window at the newest holiday house to the area available for a whopping $3500 a week peak . Im getting ready to jump ship regardless come January and moving a few minutes away . Council allows live on block for 2 years whilst we build so if it goes pear shape number 3 we can just squat and enjoy the beach nearby 😅 😅. Thankyou for this analysis 💐
JOIN THE RESISTANCE!
Help me, 😊obiwan kenobi, you're my only hope😂
Can’t afford to. Mortgage is too expensive.
@@superluminal89 😂
What resistance is that you speak of?
@MS-ll9qb *heavy muffled breathing "You are a rebel spy, and a traitor take him away!"
Not the case in Perth, high demand low stock, cheaper than most other capitals, still going up.
The people here have to understand something. Financial report is different than consumers trend.
The reality is that aus economic isnt good we know that however when it comes to house price, there are still demands due high immigration together with Fomo therefore when the public news comes out with price drop, people take that as a good chance to buy and not the otherway around like you that are reading here
Yes, REA probably employs people (psychologists, etc.) to understand what articles to push out at different points in the cycle.
Thanks Martin. Will Tarric be on soon? His new article is good.
As soon as he has time…
Bargains for black rock
Can we have an analysis on Guildford West 2161 Sydney NSW please
Not In my neck of the woods
Every house is worth millions with the average person sat at home eating dollar noodles as they’ve got no money for anything else and they are worried about their job security. Fantastic outcome - all cash sucked up by housing at the expense of just about everything else.
Mackay 3bed 1 bath 67 offers.
Sold at the top ready for the bargains have a look at what happening around the world
Watch prices soar before the end of the 18 year cycle.. we arnt even at the winners curse yet
Tom Panos is an absolute germ. He doesn’t even know the name of the RBA governor.
What price fall???!!! Delusional to the max
IS not he predicting housing market crash for years now?
Sure thing. Maybe go back to reading and comprehension class. Combined capitals UP 0.5% for the month and your title claims FALLS in house price accelerating.
Barely keeping up with CPI for the month.
Nice
By as many homes as you want look it up unlimited buying power using trusts
lower teh rates! That will fix thing
It's a blow 🌬️ off top chart 📈 too me.
Tom's a flog. Prices stop going up for a nanosecond and he's waving a red flag. Please.
Adelaide 5000 ?
Helllo Martin 🙂
HI
Our Sydney properties have gone down by 20% ish across Darlinghurst,Narrabeen,castle hill,Glebe.
We’re assuming more falls to come.
Hi Martin. I am an accountant and a qualified ESL teacher. Where's the best place in Aussie to live? I have a deposit for a house.
Many are voting with their feet to WA, Sydney Melbourne and Brisbane are not that attractive, some regional areas are sensible, if jobs available, but does depend of preferred life-style etc. For me home is a place of shelter, not simply an investment (might be unpopular in that view, but there you are!)
you're asking a guy that moved from Australia to the UK lol
Adelaide
South West WA
If someone follow you would definitely be broke and will own no thing. I followee long time and i wish i did not do so .i have missed a great opportunities to invest in properties. Good luck for new followers who will not know you
Haa lol what a load of bullshit house prices are still going up
Which flavor of democratic socialism would AU prefer? AU must stand alone. Embrace International Law, take our seat at ASIAN & join the 'Multi-Nodal World'. Not, as a 5th Column neocon sycophant.
I don't care if prices drop a bit. I bought before the craziness so have had over 100% gains and I have high rent locked in. Only idiots sell property. Buy, hold, rent and use equity to buy more. Regardless of negative gearing. Worst case scenario, I sell the lot and take all the money out of country and go where I well be treated better.
It'll bounce higher next year. Might be a dip and opportunities coming up.
Rents will be significantly higher in 5-10 years. I’m so excited, I can continue to increase my passive income. Only the non asset owners have a silly opinion, they missed out.
Yea exactly, those silly 3 year olds especially from low income families should have thought better. Now they will face perpetual slavery to landlords
@@InfinityIsland2203😂 well said.
Please leave sooner ❤
where! i don't see it? Sydney, Bribane, Perth and Adelaide all through the roof
Core logic???? You mean Core Bullshit!😂