Housing crisis, health crisis, cost of living crisis, debt crisis, inflation crisis, EU war crisis, middle East crisis, bank crisis, retirement crisis. How many crises can a koala bear?
I was just thinking the same... I'm approaching retirement with comfortable millions, yet scared of leaving my savings in the bank, pondering if I should just buy gold to preserve and grow my money
gold to me is an inflation hedge for long term, but not quite profitable in the short run, you can get more insights or guidance from financial advisors
Investing with an advisor changed my life. I retired as a millionaire at 55 after working as a teacher for 32 years, earning over $100k annually. The COVID-19 lockdown pushed me to supplement my income with stocks and alternative investments.
bravo! I've worked in real estate for over 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio, but I need a different plan now... mind if I look up the professional guiding you please?
I have a female advisor named Melissa Terri Swayne I recommend researching her. To be very honest, I'm glad I decided to let someone handle expanding my finances even though I almost didn't think I should.
I am an architect and I must say I agree with the bottlenecks for planning. If I am approached by a landowner wanting to put multiple dwellings on their land (eg. a set of small apartments) I immediately say: We can submit the Planning Approval next month for you, but it would take 1 - 2 years before you get approval, let alone build it. That's how long it takes. It takes about 2 - 3 months for it to even to be allocated to a local Planning Officer, 2 - 3 months for referring it to other departments in council, 1 - 2 months for advertising to residents for feedback, 6- 12 months of DRP / DRC meetings, then 1 - 3 months for "it's on my supervisors desk waiting for their signature". After all this time, the development becomes unfeasible and the project is scrapped, which is what happens to about 60 - 75% of developments. The remainder are only if the landowner really really pushes it and maintains enthusiasm over the years.
Where is our main deficiency in terms of skilled labourers or other professionals that is leading to such long delays? Do we need more carpenters, civil engineers, electricians or something else entirely?
I am sure you suspect the process is created by developers. They do not want competition and they are the biggest contributors to party election campaign funding.
@@s1Lence_au start with architects. I was an architect. Challenge the need for everything to be done by a skilled labour. As an former architect working as a labourer my skills are not recognised in related fields so I have gone/am going back to my family farm. This would cut out the profit of the education system. EG project management is what architects are trained as but I would have to start as a cadet as a project manager and get retrained. Too much OHS BS. Again good for the training company but do I really need to refresh my tickets every two years? Skill and experience is generally ignored. It's all about your "current", emphasis on the last 5 years, education not your ability as a person. Again great for the indirect taxation system that is training. Let's not even mention CPD.... What a waste of my intelligence. As @hub5343 says planning and regulations. My last project as a project architect in Canberra in 2009 was DOMA groups Foothills. It only started construction a year or so ago and fallen victim to the rate rises. Thats taken almost 15 years to get going. it was is 4-600 apartments worth a billion ... I got better things to do with my life than oversee an endless number of reports that do little other than tick the compliance box and give stooges a right to derive an income. Indirect taxation again. A former boss in Sydney was up to 60 000 in planning fees for his mixed use house on a block zoned for that use. The whole industry is a "washing machine" cash cow for all levels of govt., the education industry and many others. It is everything other than efficient. Until that is challenged good luck...
@cameronbridges6365 sigh... sounds very frustrating and so counter productive. And I thought the health sector was bad. No wonder many builders go under.
@@annea6288 th-cam.com/video/zNCbx278URM/w-d-xo.html 1:35 the sign is replaced (by the employee) 1:40 his pouch of rolly tobacco has changed sides (two logo's one shirt) 1:45 he snaps his burn phone. 1:50 back in business Builders do go under but not for long. The phoenix rises from the ashes. It's the poor chumps he was building for when he "goes under" that take the hit... Health all the rest just as bad in their own way.... My niece just left early childhood education. Daily progress reports for every kid or something like that. In Canberra apparently it's a thing. Many in the early childhood education leave that industry and become bureaucrats - less paperwork... lol This country is wrong
If you want to help housing in this country. Scrap negative gearing. Scrap short stay accommodation. Scrap foreign property ownership. Stop importing so many people.
Those are good ideas but people just don’t vote for them … look what happened to labor in 2019 when they promised to remove negative gearing … thats why governments don’t run these policies because they aren’t popular … people just don’t what to sacrifice
It's interesting that the reason why I cannot afford a house is my choice of renting a small 2 bedroom unit. Well done Australian goverment, well done.
Right … you know it’s the people that vote in the government … look at what happened in 2019 when Labor said that they scrap negative gearing … also nimbys … so governments aren’t entirely to blame here
Well if the greed grubs with 20 investment properties didn't revolt every time the government tries to change negative gearing laws we might make some progress. It isn't the governments fault it's real estate agents and people like this presenter who are making it hard to buy. I bet this maggot has a few houses in his portfolio. SF Capital is probably a front for laundering money from Asian triads.
I returned to Australia in 2022 after 13 yrs away, and I'm shocked at the cost of living here now, especially what's happened to the cost of housing. I'm lucky enough to own land but would never be able to afford to build on it if I had to rent a place while trying to save. As a single person with no kids and a love of travel, I've chosen to travel Australia in a van, working, saving, and enjoying life. This country has gone mad in many ways. I feel sorry for the people trying to keep up with it all.
Housing should never have been allowed to become more then an essential service.. If you own more then 3 houses you are a business and should be treated as such but never will while the average politician owns so many houses.
I agree that politicians have their snouts in the trotters. Say what you will, but the simple fact remains, people need somewhere to rent. Stats released by the ABC recently showed properties that investors who are selling, are often bought by other investors. We have a unit as investment, but it was to house our son who has disabilities. 8 years later hes still there and he will be thhere for a long time yet to come. But why would it matter if we bought (not owned - as there would be a mortgage on all of them anyway) another 3 oor 5, if we had the equity to do so. It doesnt matter who owns it. All that matters is thats its available for rent. Home owning is nice, but there will always be, and going forward, continue to be more and more people who will only be able to afford to rent, as the more low wage migrants we bring in, the more low cost rentals will be needed. No one is building cheap 2 bed units anymore, yet that is what the overwhelming demand for is.
People turned to property investment as a wealth creation strategy when the government warned Australians that they were under-invested for retirement.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
In Queensland the median prices for the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast became higher than Brisbane. Canberra is a type of regional centre but it's also so expensive. Maybe there should be a planned new city with extremely cheap high density real estate based upon mass bicycle commuting, as opposed to urban sprawl that keeps on sprawling and creating horrendous traffic that is unsustainable.
Decentralisation is never going to happen. The only method is the creation of new States, which require capitals. The outstanding example is Canberra. It’s utterly ridiculous that WA and QLD cling to regions in their north that could easily secede.
@@seanlander9321 Queensland is an example that it can happen though, QLD & especially TAS are decentralised states, QLD is a good chunk behind TAS thanks to Brisbane but the Gold Coast is coming for it ass, especially when it connects to Beaudesert, but QLD has a remarkable amount of cities above 50k and a few above 100k. NSW is getting there too with Newcastle for example just about connecting to Maitland which is already growing like crazy. It’s slowly happening but it’s slow, the problem is Aussies need to get over themselves and stop this obsession with the big cities, I’m not saying go live in the Outback and I understand we need a job but my friends are crazy, they’ll pay double the rent I pay to live in “Brighton” in inner city Melbourne and judge me for paying half in Dandenong? Aussies are hard on keeping up with the Jones’s, I work in retail so I see it with strangers too but as I work in retail I know regional cities have stores so I’ll find a job but I won’t live in Melbourne anymore, La Trobe valley here I come but please nobody else, wait until I buy then let the prices go up from there 😂
It's also in the Governments best interest to keep prices high as they reap the benefits of taxes on the sale/purchase of a house. This is also the reason why they release limit land
Its mostly because home owners feel good when prices go up... Including politicians homes and investments. And so no politicians will make the moves to lower the prices and anger home owners who have high price loans to pay off
Just thank your government whom allowed $401.6 billion foreign investment in Real Estate market for 2020 2021 2022 while the citizens was locked up in their homes and couldn’t cross state borders even so very few local citizens bought new homes . This amount of money was enough to overheat the market
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task
Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Missed a key demand factor, Government handouts starting with GST 1st home owners, then baby bonus ( equaling nearly 3 months maternity leave ) and all the other hand outs to families which all helps indirectly in paying a higher mortgage and rent. Go thru history of all hand outs and see how they match housing spikes. To me it looks created on purpose to benefit the you know whos who created it in the late 1990s.
Right, the Centerlink recipients are driving up your local property market and not, let's say, the boomers who benefited the most from a decade of QEs pumped into the economy to save their investments after 2008? Oh wait, let's not forget those dirty dirty IMMIGRANTS! You must be one of those rare 'the liberal party is the better economic manager' type still grazing in the wilderness.
Do you think that negative gearing on investment properties might also be contributing to high house prices? Negative gearing is essentially a government hand out.
Important to consider that negative gearing was also intended as a vehicle to increase the supply of residential property through incentivising private investment. The government isn’t spending on social housing (which would never have made up for the deficit in supply.
At first the government should limit ownership to maximum 2 properties because there are always people who need to rent for various reasons. All owners of more than 2 properties should be forced to sale the rest of the properties and repay collected government Rent Assistance over the years. At this stage owners of multiple properties are the largests recipients of Centrelink's Rent Assistance.
Government interference in the free market is the problem. More government intervention more problems, less affordable houses. You are looking to the wrong place for solutions,
I believe the housing market is overpriced due to high demand, bidding wars, and challenges in land availability. The trend of wealthy individuals and foreign buyers paying excessively makes it tough for average people to purchase homes, potentially leading to a collapse. Housing will be taking a big hit and prices will drop
Wealthy individuals and foreign buyers don’t cause the collapse. It’s is likely to be mortgage stress causing foreclosures, a recession or property developers going bust like what is happening in China. The wealthy people are the ones keeping the market propped up, we would have crashed long ago if it weren’t for them.
well, no one force sellers to be greedy to want to sell their house at record high price correct? And no one stop locals who are working far too less to earn more money and save to buy this high price houses rite? Its their laziness working attitude that resulted them to not being able to command higher salary rite? If you own a house in Sydney cbd area and u want to sell it, would you be kind enough to sell it for $500,000 to a first time young couple that you have pity on? or you want to sell for 1.5million dollars to a foreigner buyer with CASH on hand? So what do u say here? All these people who are grumbling and making noise about housing crisis blar blar blar are simply losers or failures who are dragging Australia economy back for the past decades, where they lived comfortably with little effort in self upgrading their knowledge and work performance to command a high salary scale to secure a better future! They just simply leave such burden to the system or government to provide cushion for them to hedge against any storm or wind! But now, reality had set in due to huge storms hitting worldwide and all countries are suffering same housing crisis, high inflation and recession to come! But luckily, Australia is not facing recession economy due to massive investment brought in by foreigners or migrants that locals hated here to fend off this big economy recession storm that is growing worldwide! And this move of killing or indirectly telling off all international students, foreigners or new migrants you are not welcome here to Australia last week is a very very stupid and bad move! Especially targeting international students would meant targeting their KIDS that is more important to any foreigners own lives here! And i cant possible think if you were the parents and you found your son is being targeted and not welcome as an international student here in Australia anymore, i guess i will just have to find another better country like Singapore or Malaysia that will give better education and future for my child, which means i will withdraw most of my investments here and leave in 1 year time! And surprisingly, Malaysia had just announce their new migration plan to allow any foreigners that investment 5 million Malaysia ringgit would be eligible to apply for their Permanent Residency and can buy any property above 1.5 million anywhere in Malaysia. So i guess Australia will soon to join in the world recession very soon in 1 year time i guess? 😂😂😂
Hi Bianca, its 4th class economics - the demand out strips supply. Everyone wants to live in Sydney. (maybe Melb). The average person, as you say, like me perhaps when I was 30, I had to move to melbourne to buy my first house for $167,500. Today, I assume, the average person may have to move to a regional town - buy, renovate, double their money in 3 years then move back to the city. There's always land - which means there's always opportunity.
At the end of the day, it comes down to the Australian people choosing to see a house as an investment or asset rather than a home or a place to live. As long as people salivate at the thought of properties as "investments", house pricing will forever go up and will remain attainable only to the rich. Remember, the government (no matter which side) is full of landlords and property developers (or connections with said property developers).
If it wasn't for "investors" we would hardly have any Rental properties at all! Remember when the State Government sold off thousands of Public Housing homes to private investors?
@Peekaboo-Kitty that was the idea initially by the government, but in reality there are next to no affordable rentals right now and in the foreseeable future. And rentals suck but that's what about half of Australians have to deal with. It is what it is, I suppose. Have a good Christmas and happy New Year
Yep good point but remember - stamp duty going in, Land Tax at the end of each year and then CGT when you sell. In other words, the government gets its fair pound of flesh in the process.In Holland they take 40% in death duty. I think that would take the shine off property here.
Its quite simple. The housing market in Australia is not a free market. A free market would see natural prices derived from supply and demand. But in Australia, you have an incredible amount of government intervention in the way of incentives, be they tax or buyer. And tax after tax. People who are on welfare get rent assistance. Landlords who own the houses get tax incentives. People who just pay their taxes are getting slammed. People who wiggle out of paying their taxes, are raking it in. Australia has one one of the most unpopulated land masses in the world, and granted large areas are difficult to develop, Australia still has a massive amount of viable land for housing available, so space is not an issue. Simply calculate the average build cost and land cost, then refer historically, even over a very short time span like 5 years. You can quickly see we as Australians, as a population are being taken for a ride. Analise the same figures over a longer time period it only becomes more apparent. My 2 cents: -Your primary home ( with strict conditions) should be non taxable or council rated. - Remove negative gearing tax incentives for property. Encourage positive gearing of rental properties. - Foreign investment for property in Australia should be appropriately taxed, or prohibited in some way. - Flat tax: Everybody contributes. Whether it be 10%,20%. But if you earn a dollar everyone has to give back to pay for the "socialist" costs, like healthcare (lol what a joke atm), roads (lol what a joke atm) Fire, Ambulance Police (lol what a joke atm) A healthy and wealthy society would see the fully employed able to afford the most simple and cheapest housing. But what we are seeing here in Oz is the fully employed and impoverished. Sort your shit out Australia!
You're right, but saying it isnt enough. Homeowners will always prioritise voting in their interests. Unless there is some radical political change its all talk
Fully employed and impoverished. I couldn't have said it better myself. Still your forgetting a few important points. They want it that way and they want you in debt.
Canadian pension funds In 2022, CDPQ's real estate division, Ivanhoe Cambridge, opened an office in Sydney and currently has about C$2 billion in real estate investments in the country, with projections to have about C$3.5 billion in the next three to four years.
Is it coincident？the UK, Canada and Australia all increase their immigration intake dramatically post covid😅, and all these three countries are facing housing crises.
It doesn’t work that way. Maybe rethink your assumptions. It sounds more like an argument manufactured to blame new arrivals. Why not look at the impact of investors pushing for profit. If they had a better understanding of community they might stop treating the communities- created by others- as a source of profit only.
100% if we need more housing but birth rates in the lower 30 years but there's more people. Immigration should be stopped until housing crisis is fixed
It's not a coincidence, yet it's an economic necessity. It's the consequence of locking down during covid and starving the economy. Now we have debts to pay and these (in most cases temporary) immigrants are stopping our countries from entering a deep and painful recession
There was a housing shortage before Covid, the government just thought it was a good idea to make it worse by signing immigration pacts to guarantee it's here to stay
Given how well this video touches on so many topics and reasons for the housing crisis, I'm actually surprised that it never made any mention of land banking and excessive short-term holiday rentals, even if only to clear the air and get to the reality of how much impact they're having.
It's worthwhile raising it for sure but I wanted to also ensure that we didn't have to unpack something that would ultimately lead to a documentary. Although it looks like some people seem to enjoy the depth!
17:49 Why lower borrowing capacity does not lower demand (lower prices) from less buyers (weaker buying power) ? Why difficulty on saving deposit does not lower demand (lower prices) from less buyers (weaker buying power) ?
Don't forget that the bricklayers want a decent livable wage for the work they do as well. If they don't get work, they don't get paid either. I can't say anything for other trades, but bricklayers never had superannuation either until the 90s. Most of my family are bricklayers and all build or built very good quality homes, but it's hard on the body, and your physical health is basically done by 40-50. Whereas other people in that age range are better physically. I know the issue is more complex, but getting the tradies is part of it. Also, due to societies shift in favour of more soft work+wanting a decent wage for work, there is a lack of tradesmen and practical workers in general. Just an observation.
My cabinetmaker & electrician relatives say the exact same thing. Bodies destroyed by 50 - wages need to reflect that. Not enough young ppl going into trades, and there are too many quitting before they really get going. Disaster coming down the pipeline, as the govt rams more and more ppl into our borders.
Cost of materials is also hurting wages for our needed laborers and trades. Throw in cost of travel and there isn't much room left for the companies to pay them enough. With more immigration those wages are certainly not going to get better as companies will begin to hire eager immigrants desperate for work.
Thank you. This is the only well covered explanation of the Australian housing crisis. The Government is ignoring the issue by redirecting public focus to "low impact" government incentive projects while the Australian home owners and want-to-be home owners are oblivious to the underlining core challenges that will affect the every day Aussie and their children's future of home ownership. Thanks again, you did a better expose' than on this main stream media channels. 🥰
To all the first home buyers I am sympathetic to your cause. The problem started many years ago when someone thought of the idea of B&B accommodation. There are tons of houses being used for just that. These homes have been taken away from long term and converted to short term accommodation literally taking any chance of buying (first home owner)or renting long term. It all boils down to investors greed and fear of having to pay their fair share of taxes because they can’t write off expenses against their huge incomes. If only one home was enough.
Yeah but you own your own house and the problem is too many people who own their own houses are not standing up to the government and protesting the demand based policies of the past 50 years.
They've taken away one of the most basic necessities. Shelter. I wonder what are all these renters going to do when they're too old to work. Rent is too high to allow for any meaningful savings.
That would be perfect. It should lower the prices. At first the government should limit ownership to maximum 2 houses because there are always people who need to rent for various reasons. All owners of more than 2 properties should be forced to sale the rest of the properties and repay collected government Rent Assistance over the years. At this stage owners of multiple properties are the largests recipients of Centrelink' Rent Assistance.
At the moment, that is already the case. Foreign ownership represents 0.75% of property sales and is restricted to new properties only, encourage construction. They also pay higher taxes and fees on those properties and their income is taxed at the full foreign rate of 32.5%
I don’t understand why people don’t talk about the quality of new apartments being built? Imagine replacing 20 good free standing homes or 40 duplexes for 300 apartments. Every apartment being 1 or 2 bedrooms. Few 3 bedrooms. These 20 to 40 homes that once housed families have forced families further away or to pay even more in the same area for what’s remaining. The new apartments are only suitable for singles, couples and few families with a newborn. These apartments have high strata fees making them less affordable. Also no consumer protections for dodgy buildings. We aren’t seeing more 4 or 5 bedroom apartments suitable for families. Note many people need a study area too for work. But it’s ignored. Keep ignoring the obvious and nothing will change.
@@daviddou1408 I know many people including myself who grew up in 2 or 3 bedroom homes, but these homes had a separate dining room, a formal lounge room and a family room. These 2 bedroom apartments are tiny in comparison. These days people also need work areas.
The birth of our housing crisis occured during the Howard government. Until then the policy was that 1 in 3 houses needed to be publicly owned. His government took $3 billion away from the public housing budget which was never replaced. This forced those needing public housing into private rental market. Private rental market seeing increased demand put prices up, and subsequently price of houses went up.
The Town planning / DA approval process for new builds is just way too slow - Over 12 months to approve 3 low-density townhouses in suburban Melbourne. They give too much power to objecting NIMBY neighbors regardless of the developments achieving full compliance with zoning codes.. Such applications are always going to VCAT just because over 8 of these idiots decide to object to a completely compliant and reasonable application costing the developer and consultants thousands in losses. It's no wonder everybody is bailing out of the Victorian property development market these days.
We need more cities, not more growth in the ones that we already have. Building approvals shouldn't even be granted in Melbourne and Sydney, anymore. There isn't the infrastructure to support further growth. And good luck in the next drought. We've somehow forgotten about those.
Great job. You explained a very complicated issue very clearly and simply. Another issue is the structure of the typical 30-year mortgage combined with lifestyle choices - you effectively buy one property for yourself and another for the bank through the amount of interest paid (which is an often overlooked factor).
The govt needs to look at some scheme like what singapore does for housing with HDB apartments. There is no way construction at the pace it is running at now will be enough for the nearly 500k migrants. So prices will continue to increase as long as supply doesnt meet demand. The govt needs to lead.
The "government leading" in Singapore is "We're doing this and we don't care if you don't like". Be careful what you wish for. Oh and how do I know this? I lived in Singapore for 5 years.
@steveremington I've also lived in Singapore as my folks are from there originally. If you are happy with rules based silent dictatorship then no probs. At least they got houses to live in and not a swag under the light rail at pyrmont.
Negative gearing is having a HUGE impact, there's no way the impact is only 2%. Your average landlord in Australia doesn't even break-even on the rent on a second property, the majority return a negative yield (especially in Sydney). If you had a room full of property owners, who had more than 1 property, and you told them negative gearing was going away, you can bet a huge number of them would bail out of that before you could blink.
Completely agree. Whoever came up with a 2% needs to put the crack pipe down. If negative gearing was ended (including for existing properties) it would spell almost certain disaster for the rental market with a massive reduction in properties available as I would assume a very decent percentage of rentals would need to be sold as the landlords would not be able to continue funding the property without the help of people like me (who pay a massive amount of tax and get no tax breaks).
@@jezg084 Get out with this bullsh**! I am sick of hearing this nonsense. What happens if landlords sell their rental properties? Do you think those properties suddenly cease to exist? No they go on the market, increasing supply thus lowering prices, and people buy them to live in. Stop justifying the greed with your idiotic and ridiculous statements! This is what greedy investor landlords would like people to think so no one supports a policy of removing negative gearing.
At the moment most countries in the world have housing crisis. The reason is simple and is no mystery. It is supply and demand. The thing that makes it confusing is that there are huge supplies but the demand never decreases. The reason for it is that there are too many investors with unlimited money trying to buy these homes. That's why despite huge supplies and many empty homes, the demand is stronger than ever. The issue is investors. We have limited land and homes but many many investors with unlimited greed and unlimited access to money, both cash and loan from banks.
yes it is ,if investors buy a one million house they pay 150000 tax and firb fee to government, if they rent out they need pay 31%to government, if house unoccupied pay 5000 each year,so it is huge income from them.make government rich,then the government use this income help local poor people,help local no working people. this is what they doing ,this is why
Without investors you wouldn't have any rentals! Property values wouldn't be so high if Councils were willing to make concessions and allow development by subdividing plots into 300 m2 lots, we would have more housing for buyers. I have been living in Mumbai for the past few years and I can state that flats and apartments in Mumbai are much more than Sydney! High density living is the way forward!
@@kamaldaruwalla6172the problem is greedy investors with multiple properties which have exploded in number since Howard turned property ownership into a form of gambling. When the market crashes I will laugh my arse off as these greedy people are forced to the wall.
Thanks for a great run down on the housing crisis in Australia. All these factors could apply to New Zealand as well where housing prices are out of control too especially in Auckland. As someone who has visited Sydney every year for the last 25 years I can tell you that I believe that your immigration levels have contributed the most to housing unaffordabilty. I was at Chatswood where 47% of the population is new migrants. It looked to be the same in the Sydney cbd. You cannot have uncontrolled immigration and expect the housing supply to keep up with demand. All too easy to just turn on the immigration tap to pump up the economy. Short term gain, long term pain.
@@gureno19 a buddy of mine recently paid 580k for a town house 2 hours out from the city centre. I'd say that isn't that affordable tbh compared to what you can buy in other countries.
A reason Australians are not buying high density apartment is the new high rises built in the past 15 years are all shonky constructions. Not only are these new high rises dangerous to live in but it can also bankrupt you finanically. Just look at the Sydney Opal Tower. Eitherway I think it is already too late for Australia. The property prices are already super expensive and unaffordable. Wages rise is not a solution becuase the cost of living would skyrocket. The only way to make the properties affordable is a significant price correction but given the realestate value is 400% of the total Australian GDP I don't see how the Australia would voluntarily introduce a significant price correction.
There is "Demand" and then there is something called "Artificial Demand" or "Speculation". The huge issue we have creating speculation is negative gearing and dirty money in Australian real estate. Australia has one of the most lax anti money laundering laws in the developed world. Did you intentionally overlook these important factors?
Housing should be a basic human right and not to be used for speculation. You cannot treat housing like a commodity and it should not be used to get tax breaks.
@@daviddou1408 Australia should not allow the transfer of income streams. In general, taxpayers can only deduct expenses of renting property from their rental income, as renting property out is usually considered a passive activity.
@@daviddou1408 im just saying that common perception about N.G. is wrong. You need to be more than covering your mortgage with rent if you hope to buy more than a couple of investments. N.G. properties limit the amount a peraon can buy and by the very nature the owner is paying for part of the mortgage that the renter would otherwise be paying if they were the owner. When you pay more rent than the mortgage plus outgoings, thats when youre getting screwed, thats when the owner can afford to buy a bunch more like it.
Thank you for the deep dive. Would you also consider discussing other factors going back to the late 90's and early 2000's? Namely a) the loosening of bank lending requirements. b) the rise of dual income households? These 2 were discussed a long time ago but remain relevant.
Australia stopped being the lucky country since 2010 in my opinion. It’s now like the hunger games to live here. I am surprised so many students amd migrants want to come here based on the cost of living, congested cities and transport, and eye watering house prices, no house rentals. Available. I hope the government forewarn migrants to bring there own tent as there are no houses to lives in. Each new migrant that arrives, makes another Australian homeless or unable to find a rental - it’s shocking the amount of migration the government is doing without supplying housing and infrastructure to support the excessive number of new migrants. I feel sorry for the young people who will never be able to afford a home to live in, (only if they are lucky enough to have a rich parents) while investors can have multiple properties who either keep them vacant and claim taxes or use them for short term rentals that also sit vacant most of the year.
The townhouse next to mine has been a rental property for over 20 years. Since the last renter moved out 6-8 weeks ago, it is still vacant even though it is being advertised for rental - where are the so-called 'many' homeless renters. Go figure!!!!
I purchased a home 1 year ago for 480k We have had it evaluated recently so exactly 1 year later and its now worth 660k if we listed it for sale tomorrow. That sounds crazy but is completely in line with current sold homes similar size/ style in the immediate area and surrounds. Absolutely nuts. Our home is a traditional 4x2 and those seem to be getting rare with the amount of small units with no yards being built. Our area isn't great but more families are wanting in due to the older traditional blocks rather than smaller homes.
You have missed the big one. Debt issuance. Banks are willing to lend a far larger mortgage as multiple of income than they would allow 40 years ago. If banks decided to lend only 3 times income as before, instead of over 7 times as now, then goodbye house overprice crisis.
Yes I am coming back to Australia soon can not for a house but as a single woman in her 60s can buy an apartment or maybe a unit if it is in the outer city but do not want to buy the quality that is around! I will never never never buy new ATM when I see how they are built . Will look for something older that has been done up.
on the financial policy side you mentioned interest rates, but In your studying, did you find the effects of quantitative easing in boosting asset prices and bank reserves? what about defect spending of governments, pumping money into the economy? I for one more than doubled my house down payment through the effects of these on stock prices and the banks seem to keep on assessing property values higher, allowing ppl to borrow more. it seems any central bank liquidity seems to pump straight into equities. also they money multiplier effect shows that increase in bank lending multiplies the money supply. all things that werent mentioned....
the US has been exporting inflation to the rest of the world and increased the interest rate to attract capital and their over printed US dollar back to the US shore. Do you know that the US mortgage holders are shielded from the interest rate hikes because their home loan is fixed rate for 30 years by law.😂 The rest of the world is fked though.
First off, loved your video. I had a few questions though. 1. If negative gearing comes back and investors start snapping up houses, wont that reduce the amount of houses for people actually trying to buy, further driving up the price ? 2. Coming from the construction industry, labour is not driving up the price of construction. Steel fixers are not making 3 x their hourly wage. 12 years ago as an electrician i was on $35 an hour. Fast forward to today and the avg electrician wage is $40. Our wages have been stagnant for so long. 3. Isnt foreign investors another major player ? Both house on either side of me are owned by people who do not live in australia. The house on my left is owned by a person in China, and the house on my right is owned by a person in singapore. Neither are australian citizens.
weirdly one of them has only ever had Irish people renting it. 8 years and no one has been in it other than Irish people. The other house has had people in it. Although its just been sold again and now subdivided into 2 tiny lots. @@newsgetsold
Since monetary and fiscal policy is blunt, immigration is one of the few tools stopping Australia from going into recession. Peak retirement is something we should all question.
Couple of extra reasons not mentioned. 1. Today's average house is twice as big as it was 30 years ago. Buyers expections and costs have doubled. 2. Those making the rules affecting property prices are heavily invested in property and don't appreciate high prices as being an issue or claim any conflict of interest on things like immigration, infrastructure investment, building incentives
You did not talk about foreign buyers, negative gearing, owners that buy up to 32 properties, tax and CGT. You have to consider why home builders are out of business ( i suggest that banks will not allow credit) and politicians heavily invested in properties.
@@daviddou1408 losses are offset against the property owners gross income hence where the tax deduction and refund comes from. Why not make it that losses can only be offset against the rental income - ie if after all expenses are offset against the rental income, there’s an overall loss then the owner wears that, it doesn’t then count as a deduction against the property owners gross income.
Thank you for this. I'm glad you state "after 100+ hours of research" in your title. There's so much misinformation and false flags surrounding this issue. If we really want to solve it (and we really _need_ to) we must understand it and we also need to take the emotion out of it. Opinions abound but without facts and hard data then they only serve as a distraction to the real task at hand. Well done doing the work we all need to be doing.
The one thing not mentioned here is the relaxing of restriction for overseas purchases of Australian property. This alone caused pricing pressure where many dwellings sold at very elevated prices thus forcing the value of other properties to rise. All the other points are valid.
Finally, someone like you gave a all rounded in depth analysis of what really happen to the housing shortage, and not just giving a stupid and dumbfounded excuses by pushing all the blame to international students and migrants! International students pushing rental high? how about all the empty houses that specially catered for ABnB short term accommodation businesses etc, which is making top headlines in America and several other big countries that is facing housing shortages and high pricing too! Anyone spoke of this real contributing factor in the parliament? I guess not! As this would directly hurt thousands of locals here in Australia that having 2nd or 3rd homes to cater for short term accommodation businesses, which means this would LESS VOTERS!
Some points. You can't compare where we live to the US because not sure if you've noticed we have a giant f'ing desert or desert like land that makes most of the continent. We're not North America. Failure to match the Feds 'big oz' wet dream with huge investment in regional cities outside of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane is a joke. Mass immigration is not a positive with infrastructure. Rates below 3%, which was the old emergency level, do nothing but produce asset bubbles and inflation. I blame reserves around the world for this, not just Lowe. This is not a crisis, it is a catastrophe. I know disabled people that have been basically thrown on the street, after rents were jacked up beyond their meager means and rented to international students. We have also locked out a substantial part of the next generation from the security of owning their home, unless they picked the right parents. The basic government incompetence and the raw greed see I now see is not an Australia that I remotely recognise.
Not only those last 3 points, also where are all those sellers meant to move to when supply is below a critical level? It's actually going to cause a major issue where you cannot move anywhere and rents sky-rocket. Long and short of it, we need a lot more supply added. Density can increase in many areas in Sydney right near where I live and those against are denying so much
A well-rounded and in-depth explanation for the current housing situation. Lots of learnings from this video - thanks so much for taking the time to break it down so clearly for us to understand!
You briefly mentioned the idea that taking away negative gearing MAY offset rent increases by 2 percent. These are not and ever the right fixes. Ie - what about the then negative effect taking away negative gearing would cause on the investor market if this was actually done. A large proportion would either sell or not choose to invest. Properties don’t become positively geared for about 10 years. There is 10 years of struggle and topping up additional loans above your probably already mortgaged principal place of residence to live with. The property market is an ever changing beast with all its different conditions , tenancy rules, mortgage rates etc not in favour of the investor. If it was removed - why have a rental? The government “relies”on people choosing to invest in property to supply housing demand. There are consequences that are always overlooked by making such statements. It’s a circle of death if you remove the incentives to buy investments. There is a bigger picture, a type of ecosystem that housing works in that requires balance on many levels. When interest rates increase, landlords pay more, if rents don’t assimilate, there is a chance the investor can’t afford and will sell. The balance is inflation and wage review. Real estate and the economy are always in cycle - balance is required. Trying to amend the symptoms does not cure the disease. I appreciate the information - good video.
Please stop harping on with this idea that we will all be facing catastrophe if the landlord investors lose negative gearing and decide to sell because they are no longer able to satisfy their incessant greed by investing in houses anymore. I am sick of hearing this nonsense. What happens if landlords sell their rental properties? Do you think those properties suddenly cease to exist? No they go on the market, increasing supply thus lowering prices, and people who currently rent buy them to live in because they can now afford them. This has the effect of lowering demand for houses and further lowering prices. Stop justifying investor greed with your idiotic and ridiculous statements! This is what selfish, money-grabbing investor-landlords would like people to think so that no one supports a policy of removing negative gearing. It’s time for greedy investors to lose their hoarded properties so everyone in society can have their basic needs met and have a home to live in. There is no longer room here for misleading concepts that insinuate these greedy people are helping our society when all they are doing is increasing their hoard of wealth at the expense of the less fortunate.
It is the State Governments, restricting the subdivision of land by zoning controls. Just look at the Sydney - Newcastle corridor with all that transport serviced land lying idle with constraints on development ! All that, plus the overblown building regulations causing prices of construction to escalate. You wonder why we have high building prices; land costs because of restrictions, and building costs because of restrictions ! Too much government !
The comment at 17:28 doesn't make sense "high interest rates increase housing stock as people are forced to sell". Sorry, but they still have to live somewhere, so there is no increase in housing stock. They may be forced to sell, but they'll still have to rent or be homeless. There's other things said in this video which is also incorrect on many levels.
This was a great video, really well done. However i really do feel the disucssion around immigration should of been more detailed. It is easy to point out the effects upon the rental market, but some discussion regarding the level of correlation to home prices should of been the logical extension of that. Whether that effect is large or small matters.
Well researched presentation however I think you missed the major contributor and elephant in the room. Immigration of high net worth families and foreign investment!! These people buy their properties for for cash. How can the average Australian compete?
It is true that many foreigners pay cash to buy the properties here. However, most of these foreigners are high-end buyers - meaning that their purchases are multi-million dollar properties and not the 'cheap' homes that the average Australian are competing to buy...
10:36 Another opinion from this, the reasons most homeowners oppose unit construction in built up suburban area is that the roads are no where near wide enough in some areas. Once you add a block of lets say 6 units you've potentially got between 6 - 12 cars that now need spaces. Assuming the developer adds 1 car park per unit, that's still 6 extra cars that now need street parking on an already tight street. I think units are a great way to get people into the market but roads need to be wider with at least 1 lane each way + curb side parking on both sides available, otherwise we're just going to have more people opposing unit construction.
@sfcapitalgroup I think reasons 2 and 3 of why house prices haven't fell should actually make house prices fall. Lower borrowing capacity and lower ability to save for a deposit should dampen demand and hence lower house prices. How come you are stating the opposite here?
Hard disagree. Housing is only unaffordable for those on moderate incomes - its perfectly affordable for the rich. The reason there is a housing crisis is because of the lack of investment in social housing. There is no other cause.
@Michelle_Emm To buy into Sydney now, lets VERY modestly say you need $1.2million. For the repayments on that to be less than 30% of your take home pay, for a double income household, each earner would need to earn on average a whopping $250K. So yeah, based on an "average" Sydney home being "affordable" in today's market, "rich" would be a household with an annual income above $500K (two very high income earners or one ultra high earner).
@@robertjackson8246 125 taxes in Australia the government steal 40% from you min a renter . Do you drink I paid $13 for a scooner of Canadian club it tax 95% to import the government crooks
Good analysis. As you've eloquently described, there are several factors that have/are affecting housing affordability in Australia, and it's not as simple as changing tax rules or removing negative gearing as the media would like to have you believe. There is another major factor on the supply side of the equation. Successive governments at all levels (local, state, and federal) have neglected maintaining or increasing the supply of low-cost and social housing over many decades -- in fact, many have reduced social housing and sold the corresponding land to developers. Without this more affordable alternative and additional supply, it also creates additional pressure on rental supply. Governments should also be doing the opposite to what they've done in recent years, and that is to increase incentives for small-scale private investments rather than continue to constrain and constrict, therefore allowing an increase in rental stock. This would actually include tax incentives and ensuring that private investors are no worse off than owner-occupiers with lending. It's a difficult balance, but we've seen the effects of our flawed housing environment. COVID just exacerbated it and highlighted the problems even further.
In my 35 yrs in the building industry, one of the things that really stands out on top of all this is "Expectation". Houses are just way bigger than they were 40-50 years ago. Bigger house means bigger cost.
Bigger house but smaller land. The land is the thing that goes up in value the most, not the building. The houses are also made from inferior materials. To your point though, more building regulations also force up construction costs.
@@teatowel11exactly! Building costs may have increased but nowhere near the rate that land has gone up. I absolutely believe a large part of this is our culture to live in quarter acre houses and think that because Australia is big we shouldn’t need to worry about this. Think of other cities with the same population as Sydney and Melbourne, people live in apartments because that’s what they can afford. I’m sure most would prefer a house if they can afford it. Here, whenever a proposal to have high rises , the nimbies go out in force and shut it down. I’m not a fan of apartments either but I’ve come to accept that we’re at the population level that we need to go up if we want to afford a home, have the convenience of going places without sitting on a train or traffic jam for 2hrs. In other words, we need to change our way of living
It certainly did not help at all when your elder sisters are forcing you to lend them money to buy the house that they cannot afford with no intention to returning the money ever, because those money came from my parents? Why the F*** did I even work at all. Sure Australia is having a housing crisis now, it just brings the worse out of human. Apart from developers and some home owners/AirBNB renters monetising the crisis. This really sickness me more.
The fact that Paul Keating introduced negative gearing in the '1990's was missed. The fact that governments stopped building public housing was missed. Scrap negative gearing, stop immigration, bring the cash rate up to 7.5%, build public housing, at the level it was in the '70's and 80's, and see what happens to house prices.
Canadian pension funds In 2022, CDPQ's real estate division, Ivanhoe Cambridge, opened an office in Sydney and currently has about C$2 billion in real estate investments in the country, with projections to have about C$3.5 billion in the next three to four years.
Australian Property Investor - "Foreign Investment Review Board data showed China was the single largest source of offshore investment in Australian residential real estate in the fourth quarter of last year at $600 million." + the Australian Government is allowing another 200,000 immigrants to come here.... during a housing crisis.... I'm 57yo and I'm absolutely embarrassed by what this once great country has become.... it's a disgrace...
Back in the heyday of the 90s though, in all Anglo cities like Brisbane, which had half the population it does now, the lack of immigration from non-Anglo countries led to it being impossible to get any kind of job for someone not in ethnic mainstream. You literally had to be full Anglo or Celtic to get a job, due to the extreme ethnic homogenity of the population and resistance against immigration. The floodgates opened in the mid-00s however and 20 years later that mentality has become a thing of the past, opening up a wide spectrum of economic opportunities to groups previously excluded from that. So the 90s was the last full decade of the preservation of the traditional way of life in Australia, but only for the predominant ethnic group - not for those from other countries, even if they were born and raised here and even if they were half-Anglo. It was an "all or nothing" society as far as your ethnic origins went - all for the main ethnicity, none for the rest. Most Italians, Chinese, Russians then become doctors or dentists as they would have been unemployed otherwise, whereas now they do a much wider spectrum of work, maybe not Law, but IT, business etc. 25 years ago their ethnic background was the main factor determining their [un]employment - which sounds bizarre today but that has only been undone via unfettered immigration.
@@ReturnOfTheJ.D. What is wrong with a homogenous society? Most countries outside of the west are fairly homogenous, and they like it that way (and there is nothing wrong with that). I wouldn't go and live in Thailand or Japan or Uzbekistan (or many other countries) and expect to get a job as a tradie, or supermarket manager, or nurse etc. I would expect those local jobs to go to those who designed and created that society. Basically those who that society belongs to. Why is it that white people are the only people on the planet who aren't allowed to have a country or society that is geared for their own people? And if you want one, (like most other races have) you are automatically evil and racist? Minorities have the western country they live in (which has to cater to them) PLUS an ancestral homeland geared for their own people. White people aren't even allowed a homeland without that homeland being besieged, and demands that it must cater to everyone from any corner of the globe that comes (along with automatic cries of 'racism' if they don't get special treatment or if someone looks at them twice). I remember an Egyptian actor whining that there weren't enough parts for Egyptian actors in Hollywood. My response? Because you're not in fucking Egypt, you m0ron!
Second home buying should be banned for short time till we overcome these housi crisis and no one from overseas should be allowed to buy land Australia can allow foreigners to invest in other areas but not in housing or land. Government must let Australians have shelter because this is very basic necessity of life.
A few ideas: 1. Auctions for residential property to be illegal and inake all valuers independent under a regulated body rather than employed by real estate agents 2. Heavy residential property vacancy tax and/or converting long-term empty residential property into social housing 3. Disincentivise housing speculation and restrict number of investment residential properties owned per person/household/trust 4. Only citizens and permanent residents who livec in Australia for a certain amount of years can own residential property
Bringing in 1 million immigrants within 12 months is the primary driver for our entire cost of living and housing crisis. We can only currently build 150k homes per year so where are these people going to live?
Excellent assessment. Now add 4 banks, silly profits, our super in share market where 40ish pc is 4 banks, tax those banks pay, the variable rates bank can charge when fixed prices and incomes are in place and as you list builders going bust, etc. Massive add to your model. One last. Rba does not account for international economy which impacts property prices with international buyers...
The dream of home ownership was killed by Labour's immigration policy. The influx of 500,000 immigrants in 2023 has used up all available houses and rentals. We need to add a policy to incentivise building homes to increase supply. The Northern Territory has a $25,000 home building grant. They are the only state that has 3%+ rental vacancies. Then we need a policy which makes the cost of building a house cheaper. Buying an established house will never cost less than costs to build a house, or else everyone would build instead as it would be the more affordable option. Lower the cost to build, increase house supply, lower immigration to 80% of the number of houses built the year before. If supply is kept in surplus, then houses and rentals will be affordable as supply will be higher than demand. As long as Labour is in power, immigration will always be high, as they are the party of immigration. Both by illegal boat people or legal by upping the immigration cap. Labour has already stated they want 1.5 million immigrants in 5 years. That the population of Adelaide! I haven't seen a new capital city built recently, have you?
The projected immigration rate is beyond scary yet it’s barely mentioned anywhere. Where do people think all these immigrants are going to live? Not next door to them?!
Isn't that Adelaide line from Dutton's speech? Net Overseas Migration (NOM) averaged 214k from September 2013 through to June 2018. In the next 5 years over the same periods, NOM averaged 192k even with the 500k figure, because thousands of people left during covid. Ergo, we're still below average and what was expected and housing affordability issues didn't just magically appear this year. See ABS migration statistics for more. First home buyer grants increase property prices, see cross party Victorian Property Market Review 2023 (chaired by an LNP member no less), 2012 Study by Deakin University post GFC, etc, for more.
@@felixonthemac But during that Covid period with no migration, were we building houses like normal? No, we were all locked down and masked. All construction was pretty much stopped. So Labor had huge migration to catch up on the 2 years "we lost", but we never did anything to catch up on the housing. To get an immigrant you let them in. To build a house, you need about 8 months.
why does the government enlarge the immigration intake so dramatically post covid？Internation studnets and Cheaper but skilled labour - remember during the pandemic how the universities were crying as they were starving for lack of international students, and how the businesses were crying for labour shortage？😅
Strongly disagree that low rates are not a major contributor to house prices. If people weren't able to take out such huge mortgages, the money needed to reach the prices they have just would not have ever happened. It's easy to talk about supply-and-demand but: 1) That only moves price up or down relative to a certain amount, it doesn't dictate what that initial balanced price is, and 2) We need to apply supply-and-demand to the supply of money itself, not just the supply of housing. If rates had never gone below, say, 5%, all else being equal, while the housing market would still be tough (low supply + high demand) prices would still be lower than what they are. And yes, they'd still be elevated over where they would otherwise be, but they still wouldn't average $1m. Sure, interest rates, it's not the only factor, there are many. But it's the most significant, followed by immigration. Also, I reckon negative gearing is a red herring. It would be far less impactful if prices of mortgages and houses were simply reduced, which should be the first priority anyway.
Come on Charlie give me a break it's called supply and demand we've open the front door come in come all especially if your cashed up and you wonder why inflation is not coming down our productivity is low and bringing in cheap labour keeps wages down good luck Straya
One point not discussed was that the reason Australians don't want to live in high density housing is because the quality, location and design of units are generally very poor and offer low levels of lifestyle. Plus very high strata fees and all the dramas involved in living on top of each other.
Great content. Another important factor is the low interest environment, coinciding with the baby boomers capitalising on the cheap lending costs. Today, they represent 25% of the population, yet they own 50% of the total property market. This is also contributing to the supply issue.
One of the best economics and financial channels, information are professional, sensible and backed up responsible data & facts. Well done and keep up the good work mate.
A huge impact on housing prices is people are more often living as singles. Either due to divorce, seperation, or a lack of desire to seek a permanent partner, the large part of the population that is opting to not live together is resulting in many more dwellings being required. Add to this single parent families, which require multiple rooms, and you get a high desire for more large dwellings per capita. I myself can think of many acquaintances that insist on multi bedroom dwellings despite being single. It is simply not sustainable.
Clearly explained without all the jargon and easy to follow. You summarised this topic amazingly well in 20 minutes that most would take at least an hour to explain. You have earned a new subscriber. Please also do a video on inflation and how this isn't a bad thing if controlled well with good monetary policy.
Give you an example, Regional Australia. 1990 Gov Job, wage: $30k gross, house Price: $60k. 2022, same Gov Job, wage: $72k gross, same house unrenovated apart from 2 coats of paint. Now: $900k.
Blaming house prices on slow planning approvals is such a cop out and it's purely profit driven by developers. It's like saying "we need more fire trucks to put out these fires that keep starting" when what you need to do is take the matches off the kid who keeps starting them.
I lost a house in the Brisbane floods due to climate change. My house in Rocklea sat under water for 3 days...you could imagine what was left...a mere shell. I lost my rental at Tweed Heads to greedy landlords cashing in on those who lost their homes in the Murwillumbah, Lismore and Ballina floods, due to climate change. After the floods my rent went from $350 to $680 within a few months because they knew people were desperate for accommodation....Climate change is causing a lot of underlying issues. Fires, floods etc. Instead of a 1 in 100 year flood we now have 2 or 3 in 10 years and its getting WORSE. Fires are getting worse because of rainfall (lack of), vegetation and drought. No-one gives a $hit. The rich get richer and the poor poorer and it's the greedy rich who are the climate change skeptics and deniers. They're the ones who take advantage of the "little people" even in their most vulnerable state....THEY DO NOT CARE as long they keep the $$$ rolling in. When's enough enough? I'm 55yo, Ive worked my whole life and all I now own is a $10,000 car. If my parents hadn't offered me a room I'd be on the streets...just like many others. Mark my words...a revolution is coming.
Very thorough. Ta. My own analysis put the blame on nimbys+zoning regulations (which are linked) and immigration. Commonwealth wants cheap workers for nominal gdp growth. Ppl say no to devs because they re selfish but also because they know infrastructure will be lacklustre given the states have to beg for infra money.
Ask who will pay for the present generation in retirment in about 20 to 30 years. The only reason i can retire in any comfort is the low income earners support offered by the Victorian goverment in the early 80's. On one income (tradesmans low wage then) with 2 children and a stay at home partner i could build a new house in the dandenong ranges. Owning my home outright means no housing payments, making the pension adequate. Now an imposability for the following generations due to governent appthy and their caving in to wealth and power.
Housing crisis, health crisis, cost of living crisis, debt crisis, inflation crisis, EU war crisis, middle East crisis, bank crisis, retirement crisis. How many crises can a koala bear?
I was just thinking the same... I'm approaching retirement with comfortable millions, yet scared of leaving my savings in the bank, pondering if I should just buy gold to preserve and grow my money
gold to me is an inflation hedge for long term, but not quite profitable in the short run, you can get more insights or guidance from financial advisors
Investing with an advisor changed my life. I retired as a millionaire at 55 after working as a teacher for 32 years, earning over $100k annually. The COVID-19 lockdown pushed me to supplement my income with stocks and alternative investments.
bravo! I've worked in real estate for over 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio, but I need a different plan now... mind if I look up the professional guiding you please?
I have a female advisor named Melissa Terri Swayne I recommend researching her. To be very honest, I'm glad I decided to let someone handle expanding my finances even though I almost didn't think I should.
I am an architect and I must say I agree with the bottlenecks for planning. If I am approached by a landowner wanting to put multiple dwellings on their land (eg. a set of small apartments) I immediately say: We can submit the Planning Approval next month for you, but it would take 1 - 2 years before you get approval, let alone build it. That's how long it takes. It takes about 2 - 3 months for it to even to be allocated to a local Planning Officer, 2 - 3 months for referring it to other departments in council, 1 - 2 months for advertising to residents for feedback, 6- 12 months of DRP / DRC meetings, then 1 - 3 months for "it's on my supervisors desk waiting for their signature". After all this time, the development becomes unfeasible and the project is scrapped, which is what happens to about 60 - 75% of developments. The remainder are only if the landowner really really pushes it and maintains enthusiasm over the years.
Where is our main deficiency in terms of skilled labourers or other professionals that is leading to such long delays? Do we need more carpenters, civil engineers, electricians or something else entirely?
I am sure you suspect the process is created by developers. They do not want competition and they are the biggest contributors to party election campaign funding.
@@s1Lence_au start with architects. I was an architect. Challenge the need for everything to be done by a skilled labour. As an former architect working as a labourer my skills are not recognised in related fields so I have gone/am going back to my family farm. This would cut out the profit of the education system. EG project management is what architects are trained as but I would have to start as a cadet as a project manager and get retrained.
Too much OHS BS. Again good for the training company but do I really need to refresh my tickets every two years?
Skill and experience is generally ignored. It's all about your "current", emphasis on the last 5 years, education not your ability as a person. Again great for the indirect taxation system that is training. Let's not even mention CPD.... What a waste of my intelligence.
As @hub5343 says planning and regulations. My last project as a project architect in Canberra in 2009 was DOMA groups Foothills. It only started construction a year or so ago and fallen victim to the rate rises. Thats taken almost 15 years to get going. it was is 4-600 apartments worth a billion ... I got better things to do with my life than oversee an endless number of reports that do little other than tick the compliance box and give stooges a right to derive an income. Indirect taxation again.
A former boss in Sydney was up to 60 000 in planning fees for his mixed use house on a block zoned for that use. The whole industry is a "washing machine" cash cow for all levels of govt., the education industry and many others. It is everything other than efficient. Until that is challenged good luck...
@cameronbridges6365 sigh... sounds very frustrating and so counter productive. And I thought the health sector was bad. No wonder many builders go under.
@@annea6288 th-cam.com/video/zNCbx278URM/w-d-xo.html
1:35 the sign is replaced (by the employee)
1:40 his pouch of rolly tobacco has changed sides (two logo's one shirt)
1:45 he snaps his burn phone.
1:50 back in business
Builders do go under but not for long. The phoenix rises from the ashes. It's the poor chumps he was building for when he "goes under" that take the hit...
Health all the rest just as bad in their own way....
My niece just left early childhood education. Daily progress reports for every kid or something like that. In Canberra apparently it's a thing. Many in the early childhood education leave that industry and become bureaucrats - less paperwork... lol This country is wrong
If you want to help housing in this country.
Scrap negative gearing.
Scrap short stay accommodation.
Scrap foreign property ownership.
Stop importing so many people.
Those are good ideas but people just don’t vote for them … look what happened to labor in 2019 when they promised to remove negative gearing … thats why governments don’t run these policies because they aren’t popular … people just don’t what to sacrifice
Its only lack of land release, regulations, and immigration.
Nothing more.
At this point we'd have more luck banning private residential property landlords entirely.
Last point is the most important...2 million people in 3 years is another Brisbane.
Yeah and suffer else where in the economy.
It's interesting that the reason why I cannot afford a house is my choice of renting a small 2 bedroom unit. Well done Australian goverment, well done.
Boating camping fishing stock has risen 29% this year, perhaps the run on tents is the next housing boom :(
Guys I totally agree with you same situation here in Perth WA
Right … you know it’s the people that vote in the government … look at what happened in 2019 when Labor said that they scrap negative gearing … also nimbys … so governments aren’t entirely to blame here
Too many hair cuts 😅
Well if the greed grubs with 20 investment properties didn't revolt every time the government tries to change negative gearing laws we might make some progress. It isn't the governments fault it's real estate agents and people like this presenter who are making it hard to buy. I bet this maggot has a few houses in his portfolio. SF Capital is probably a front for laundering money from Asian triads.
I returned to Australia in 2022 after 13 yrs away, and I'm shocked at the cost of living here now, especially what's happened to the cost of housing. I'm lucky enough to own land but would never be able to afford to build on it if I had to rent a place while trying to save. As a single person with no kids and a love of travel, I've chosen to travel Australia in a van, working, saving, and enjoying life. This country has gone mad in many ways. I feel sorry for the people trying to keep up with it all.
where had you been and how was the inflation there
Yet idiots vote socalist in power
were you at Thailand?
Hey, I am curious. Where in Australia is the housing crisis and the cost of living is rising? Is it all over Australia?
@@juniormansonge- Yes all around Australia! Rent and food is almost dbled in price for no reason but greed and corruption!
Housing should never have been allowed to become more then an essential service.. If you own more then 3 houses you are a business and should be treated as such but never will while the average politician owns so many houses.
Says the guy that owns 3 houses 😂
unfortunately no,,that figure allows you to still make some cash meaning not squashing the wrought completely @@Sammywstewart
Please raise the limit to 5 😂
I agree that politicians have their snouts in the trotters. Say what you will, but the simple fact remains, people need somewhere to rent. Stats released by the ABC recently showed properties that investors who are selling, are often bought by other investors. We have a unit as investment, but it was to house our son who has disabilities. 8 years later hes still there and he will be thhere for a long time yet to come. But why would it matter if we bought (not owned - as there would be a mortgage on all of them anyway) another 3 oor 5, if we had the equity to do so. It doesnt matter who owns it. All that matters is thats its available for rent. Home owning is nice, but there will always be, and going forward, continue to be more and more people who will only be able to afford to rent, as the more low wage migrants we bring in, the more low cost rentals will be needed. No one is building cheap 2 bed units anymore, yet that is what the overwhelming demand for is.
People turned to property investment as a wealth creation strategy when the government warned Australians that they were under-invested for retirement.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
Agree, the government been saying decentralise for many years, but nothing was done. We need more regional centres. Stop focus on capital cities.
In Queensland the median prices for the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast became higher than Brisbane. Canberra is a type of regional centre but it's also so expensive. Maybe there should be a planned new city with extremely cheap high density real estate based upon mass bicycle commuting, as opposed to urban sprawl that keeps on sprawling and creating horrendous traffic that is unsustainable.
Decentralisation is never going to happen. The only method is the creation of new States, which require capitals. The outstanding example is Canberra. It’s utterly ridiculous that WA and QLD cling to regions in their north that could easily secede.
@@seanlander9321 Queensland is an example that it can happen though, QLD & especially TAS are decentralised states, QLD is a good chunk behind TAS thanks to Brisbane but the Gold Coast is coming for it ass, especially when it connects to Beaudesert, but QLD has a remarkable amount of cities above 50k and a few above 100k. NSW is getting there too with Newcastle for example just about connecting to Maitland which is already growing like crazy. It’s slowly happening but it’s slow, the problem is Aussies need to get over themselves and stop this obsession with the big cities, I’m not saying go live in the Outback and I understand we need a job but my friends are crazy, they’ll pay double the rent I pay to live in “Brighton” in inner city Melbourne and judge me for paying half in Dandenong? Aussies are hard on keeping up with the Jones’s, I work in retail so I see it with strangers too but as I work in retail I know regional cities have stores so I’ll find a job but I won’t live in Melbourne anymore, La Trobe valley here I come but please nobody else, wait until I buy then let the prices go up from there 😂
It's also in the Governments best interest to keep prices high as they reap the benefits of taxes on the sale/purchase of a house. This is also the reason why they release limit land
Developers do it themselves, it’s called land banking
Until it ends up like Canada and all the locals leave.
wrong government crooks , building costs 30% more under labor @@joek292
Its mostly because home owners feel good when prices go up... Including politicians homes and investments. And so no politicians will make the moves to lower the prices and anger home owners who have high price loans to pay off
Just thank your government whom allowed $401.6 billion foreign investment in Real Estate market for 2020 2021 2022 while the citizens was locked up in their homes and couldn’t cross state borders even so very few local citizens bought new homes . This amount of money was enough to overheat the market
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task
Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Missed a key demand factor, Government handouts starting with GST 1st home owners, then baby bonus ( equaling nearly 3 months maternity leave ) and all the other hand outs to families which all helps indirectly in paying a higher mortgage and rent. Go thru history of all hand outs and see how they match housing spikes. To me it looks created on purpose to benefit the you know whos who created it in the late 1990s.
Right, the Centerlink recipients are driving up your local property market and not, let's say, the boomers who benefited the most from a decade of QEs pumped into the economy to save their investments after 2008? Oh wait, let's not forget those dirty dirty IMMIGRANTS!
You must be one of those rare 'the liberal party is the better economic manager' type still grazing in the wilderness.
Maybe you could do some calculations. If you pooled up all these handouts, would it reach a 20% deposit?
Do you think that negative gearing on investment properties might also be contributing to high house prices? Negative gearing is essentially a government hand out.
@@pholliez And the Howard era doubling of the CGT discount, it made housing too good to be true.
Important to consider that negative gearing was also intended as a vehicle to increase the supply of residential property through incentivising private investment. The government isn’t spending on social housing (which would never have made up for the deficit in supply.
At first the government should limit ownership to maximum 2 properties because there are always people who need to rent for various reasons. All owners of more than 2 properties should be forced to sale the rest of the properties and repay collected government Rent Assistance over the years. At this stage owners of multiple properties are the largests recipients of Centrelink's Rent Assistance.
Government interference in the free market is the problem. More government intervention more problems, less affordable houses. You are looking to the wrong place for solutions,
People may see this as communism. I see this as making capitalism fair & competitive without the balance tipping.
As above, more interference more problems. Show me where what you suggest has worked? @@tristanbackup2536
The problem is thats communism. Telling people what they can and can't buy with their money.
Just tax (without N/gearing) any houses people sell after the initial 2 homes.
I believe the housing market is overpriced due to high demand, bidding wars, and challenges in land availability. The trend of wealthy individuals and foreign buyers paying excessively makes it tough for average people to purchase homes, potentially leading to a collapse. Housing will be taking a big hit and prices will drop
Wealthy individuals and foreign buyers don’t cause the collapse. It’s is likely to be mortgage stress causing foreclosures, a recession or property developers going bust like what is happening in China. The wealthy people are the ones keeping the market propped up, we would have crashed long ago if it weren’t for them.
well, no one force sellers to be greedy to want to sell their house at record high price correct? And no one stop locals who are working far too less to earn more money and save to buy this high price houses rite? Its their laziness working attitude that resulted them to not being able to command higher salary rite? If you own a house in Sydney cbd area and u want to sell it, would you be kind enough to sell it for $500,000 to a first time young couple that you have pity on? or you want to sell for 1.5million dollars to a foreigner buyer with CASH on hand? So what do u say here? All these people who are grumbling and making noise about housing crisis blar blar blar are simply losers or failures who are dragging Australia economy back for the past decades, where they lived comfortably with little effort in self upgrading their knowledge and work performance to command a high salary scale to secure a better future! They just simply leave such burden to the system or government to provide cushion for them to hedge against any storm or wind! But now, reality had set in due to huge storms hitting worldwide and all countries are suffering same housing crisis, high inflation and recession to come! But luckily, Australia is not facing recession economy due to massive investment brought in by foreigners or migrants that locals hated here to fend off this big economy recession storm that is growing worldwide! And this move of killing or indirectly telling off all international students, foreigners or new migrants you are not welcome here to Australia last week is a very very stupid and bad move! Especially targeting international students would meant targeting their KIDS that is more important to any foreigners own lives here! And i cant possible think if you were the parents and you found your son is being targeted and not welcome as an international student here in Australia anymore, i guess i will just have to find another better country like Singapore or Malaysia that will give better education and future for my child, which means i will withdraw most of my investments here and leave in 1 year time! And surprisingly, Malaysia had just announce their new migration plan to allow any foreigners that investment 5 million Malaysia ringgit would be eligible to apply for their Permanent Residency and can buy any property above 1.5 million anywhere in Malaysia. So i guess Australia will soon to join in the world recession very soon in 1 year time i guess? 😂😂😂
it cost 30% more to build homes blame socialist labor
Hi Bianca, its 4th class economics - the demand out strips supply. Everyone wants to live in Sydney. (maybe Melb). The average person, as you say, like me perhaps when I was 30, I had to move to melbourne to buy my first house for $167,500. Today, I assume, the average person may have to move to a regional town - buy, renovate, double their money in 3 years then move back to the city. There's always land - which means there's always opportunity.
stick to OF
At the end of the day, it comes down to the Australian people choosing to see a house as an investment or asset rather than a home or a place to live. As long as people salivate at the thought of properties as "investments", house pricing will forever go up and will remain attainable only to the rich. Remember, the government (no matter which side) is full of landlords and property developers (or connections with said property developers).
If it wasn't for "investors" we would hardly have any Rental properties at all! Remember when the State Government sold off thousands of Public Housing homes to private investors?
@Peekaboo-Kitty that was the idea initially by the government, but in reality there are next to no affordable rentals right now and in the foreseeable future. And rentals suck but that's what about half of Australians have to deal with.
It is what it is, I suppose. Have a good Christmas and happy New Year
Yep good point but remember - stamp duty going in, Land Tax at the end of each year and then CGT when you sell. In other words, the government gets its fair pound of flesh in the process.In Holland they take 40% in death duty. I think that would take the shine off property here.
@Gezza2515 Absolutely, you're right. We must not forget the "silent partner" that takes a cut wherever and whenever a gain is made.
There is no CGT on primary residence @@Gezza2515
Its quite simple. The housing market in Australia is not a free market. A free market would see natural prices derived from supply and demand. But in Australia, you have an incredible amount of government intervention in the way of incentives, be they tax or buyer. And tax after tax.
People who are on welfare get rent assistance. Landlords who own the houses get tax incentives. People who just pay their taxes are getting slammed. People who wiggle out of paying their taxes, are raking it in.
Australia has one one of the most unpopulated land masses in the world, and granted large areas are difficult to develop, Australia still has a massive amount of viable land for housing available, so space is not an issue.
Simply calculate the average build cost and land cost, then refer historically, even over a very short time span like 5 years. You can quickly see we as Australians, as a population are being taken for a ride. Analise the same figures over a longer time period it only becomes more apparent.
My 2 cents:
-Your primary home ( with strict conditions) should be non taxable or council rated.
- Remove negative gearing tax incentives for property. Encourage positive gearing of rental properties.
- Foreign investment for property in Australia should be appropriately taxed, or prohibited in some way.
- Flat tax: Everybody contributes. Whether it be 10%,20%. But if you earn a dollar everyone has to give back to pay for the "socialist" costs, like healthcare (lol what a joke atm), roads (lol what a joke atm) Fire, Ambulance Police (lol what a joke atm)
A healthy and wealthy society would see the fully employed able to afford the most simple and cheapest housing. But what we are seeing here in Oz is the fully employed and impoverished.
Sort your shit out Australia!
You're right, but saying it isnt enough. Homeowners will always prioritise voting in their interests. Unless there is some radical political change its all talk
Fully employed and impoverished. I couldn't have said it better myself. Still your forgetting a few important points. They want it that way and they want you in debt.
It’s getting out of hand, they need to come down hard on this foreign speculators
Canadian pension funds In 2022, CDPQ's real estate division, Ivanhoe Cambridge, opened an office in Sydney and currently has about C$2 billion in real estate investments in the country, with projections to have about C$3.5 billion in the next three to four years.
is gov milking everyone in the way?
Is it coincident？the UK, Canada and Australia all increase their immigration intake dramatically post covid😅, and all these three countries are facing housing crises.
It doesn’t work that way. Maybe rethink your assumptions. It sounds more like an argument manufactured to blame new arrivals. Why not look at the impact of investors pushing for profit. If they had a better understanding of community they might stop treating the communities- created by others- as a source of profit only.
100% if we need more housing but birth rates in the lower 30 years but there's more people. Immigration should be stopped until housing crisis is fixed
It's not a coincidence, yet it's an economic necessity. It's the consequence of locking down during covid and starving the economy. Now we have debts to pay and these (in most cases temporary) immigrants are stopping our countries from entering a deep and painful recession
There was a housing shortage before Covid, the government just thought it was a good idea to make it worse by signing immigration pacts to guarantee it's here to stay
This is a deliberately planned Crisis to reduce all Nations to 3rd World Nations.
Given how well this video touches on so many topics and reasons for the housing crisis, I'm actually surprised that it never made any mention of land banking and excessive short-term holiday rentals, even if only to clear the air and get to the reality of how much impact they're having.
It's worthwhile raising it for sure but I wanted to also ensure that we didn't have to unpack something that would ultimately lead to a documentary. Although it looks like some people seem to enjoy the depth!
Yes the effect of AirBnB does need to be considered with respect to the rental market.
Also foreign/offshore property purchases in whatever capacity that they contribute, didn't get a mention.
1,000,000 empty homes on census night doesn't help.
@@SlaintheMhath and neither does an endless supply of migrants waiting to buy you home or keep your kids homeless.
17:49 Why lower borrowing capacity does not lower demand (lower prices) from less buyers (weaker buying power) ?
Why difficulty on saving deposit does not lower demand (lower prices) from less buyers (weaker buying power) ?
Don't forget that the bricklayers want a decent livable wage for the work they do as well. If they don't get work, they don't get paid either. I can't say anything for other trades, but bricklayers never had superannuation either until the 90s. Most of my family are bricklayers and all build or built very good quality homes, but it's hard on the body, and your physical health is basically done by 40-50. Whereas other people in that age range are better physically. I know the issue is more complex, but getting the tradies is part of it. Also, due to societies shift in favour of more soft work+wanting a decent wage for work, there is a lack of tradesmen and practical workers in general. Just an observation.
My cabinetmaker & electrician relatives say the exact same thing. Bodies destroyed by 50 - wages need to reflect that. Not enough young ppl going into trades, and there are too many quitting before they really get going. Disaster coming down the pipeline, as the govt rams more and more ppl into our borders.
Cost of materials is also hurting wages for our needed laborers and trades.
Throw in cost of travel and there isn't much room left for the companies to pay them enough.
With more immigration those wages are certainly not going to get better as companies will begin to hire eager immigrants desperate for work.
@@HP66856 Electrician? One of the cruisiest jobs out there! Plus they get fucking paid!
Looking forward to Part 2, well researched and easy to follow.
Thank you!
Thank you. This is the only well covered explanation of the Australian housing crisis. The Government is ignoring the issue by redirecting public focus to "low impact" government incentive projects while the Australian home owners and want-to-be home owners are oblivious to the underlining core challenges that will affect the every day Aussie and their children's future of home ownership. Thanks again, you did a better expose' than on this main stream media channels. 🥰
These sorts of vids make the msm media seem like the dinosaur that it is.
To all the first home buyers I am sympathetic to your cause.
The problem started many years ago when someone thought of the idea of B&B accommodation. There are tons of houses being used for just that. These homes have been taken away from long term and converted to short term accommodation literally taking any chance of buying (first home owner)or renting long term.
It all boils down to investors greed and fear of having to pay their fair share of taxes because they can’t write off expenses against their huge incomes.
If only one home was enough.
Yeah but you own your own house and the problem is too many people who own their own houses are not standing up to the government and protesting the demand based policies of the past 50 years.
They've taken away one of the most basic necessities. Shelter. I wonder what are all these renters going to do when they're too old to work. Rent is too high to allow for any meaningful savings.
How about only Australian cirtizen or resident can buy house and limit on person one house only. Surely this will have effect ? what do you think ?
It should be Australia citizen pay less land tax than permanent resident and oversea investors.
That would be perfect. It should lower the prices. At first the government should limit ownership to maximum 2 houses because there are always people who need to rent for various reasons. All owners of more than 2 properties should be forced to sale the rest of the properties and repay collected government Rent Assistance over the years. At this stage owners of multiple properties are the largests recipients of Centrelink' Rent Assistance.
it wouldnt because it cost 30% more to build a home under labor @@lolplays8093
At the moment, that is already the case. Foreign ownership represents 0.75% of property sales and is restricted to new properties only, encourage construction. They also pay higher taxes and fees on those properties and their income is taxed at the full foreign rate of 32.5%
I don’t understand why people don’t talk about the quality of new apartments being built?
Imagine replacing 20 good free standing homes or 40 duplexes for 300 apartments. Every apartment being 1 or 2 bedrooms. Few 3 bedrooms.
These 20 to 40 homes that once housed families have forced families further away or to pay even more in the same area for what’s remaining. The new apartments are only suitable for singles, couples and few families with a newborn.
These apartments have high strata fees making them less affordable. Also no consumer protections for dodgy buildings.
We aren’t seeing more 4 or 5 bedroom apartments suitable for families. Note many people need a study area too for work.
But it’s ignored. Keep ignoring the obvious and nothing will change.
@@daviddou1408 I know many people including myself who grew up in 2 or 3 bedroom homes, but these homes had a separate dining room, a formal lounge room and a family room. These 2 bedroom apartments are tiny in comparison.
These days people also need work areas.
The birth of our housing crisis occured during the Howard government. Until then the policy was that 1 in 3 houses needed to be publicly owned. His government took $3 billion away from the public housing budget which was never replaced. This forced those needing public housing into private rental market. Private rental market seeing increased demand put prices up, and subsequently price of houses went up.
he opened the gates to the 457 visas@@fbb1964
The Town planning / DA approval process for new builds is just way too slow - Over 12 months to approve 3 low-density townhouses in suburban Melbourne. They give too much power to objecting NIMBY neighbors regardless of the developments achieving full compliance with zoning codes.. Such applications are always going to VCAT just because over 8 of these idiots decide to object to a completely compliant and reasonable application costing the developer and consultants thousands in losses. It's no wonder everybody is bailing out of the Victorian property development market these days.
We need more cities, not more growth in the ones that we already have. Building approvals shouldn't even be granted in Melbourne and Sydney, anymore. There isn't the infrastructure to support further growth. And good luck in the next drought. We've somehow forgotten about those.
The availability of cheap (printed) money also caused the inflation of house prices.
Money laundering from China did it.
Great job. You explained a very complicated issue very clearly and simply. Another issue is the structure of the typical 30-year mortgage combined with lifestyle choices - you effectively buy one property for yourself and another for the bank through the amount of interest paid (which is an often overlooked factor).
The govt needs to look at some scheme like what singapore does for housing with HDB apartments. There is no way construction at the pace it is running at now will be enough for the nearly 500k migrants. So prices will continue to increase as long as supply doesnt meet demand. The govt needs to lead.
Haha
The "government leading" in Singapore is "We're doing this and we don't care if you don't like". Be careful what you wish for.
Oh and how do I know this? I lived in Singapore for 5 years.
20% home ownership singapore sucks like china & hong kong why milions move to australia
singapore borderline communism you listen to left media to much
@steveremington I've also lived in Singapore as my folks are from there originally. If you are happy with rules based silent dictatorship then no probs. At least they got houses to live in and not a swag under the light rail at pyrmont.
Negative gearing is having a HUGE impact, there's no way the impact is only 2%. Your average landlord in Australia doesn't even break-even on the rent on a second property, the majority return a negative yield (especially in Sydney). If you had a room full of property owners, who had more than 1 property, and you told them negative gearing was going away, you can bet a huge number of them would bail out of that before you could blink.
Completely agree. Whoever came up with a 2% needs to put the crack pipe down. If negative gearing was ended (including for existing properties) it would spell almost certain disaster for the rental market with a massive reduction in properties available as I would assume a very decent percentage of rentals would need to be sold as the landlords would not be able to continue funding the property without the help of people like me (who pay a massive amount of tax and get no tax breaks).
@@jezg084 Get out with this bullsh**! I am sick of hearing this nonsense. What happens if landlords sell their rental properties? Do you think those properties suddenly cease to exist? No they go on the market, increasing supply thus lowering prices, and people buy them to live in. Stop justifying the greed with your idiotic and ridiculous statements! This is what greedy investor landlords would like people to think so no one supports a policy of removing negative gearing.
At the moment most countries in the world have housing crisis. The reason is simple and is no mystery. It is supply and demand. The thing that makes it confusing is that there are huge supplies but the demand never decreases. The reason for it is that there are too many investors with unlimited money trying to buy these homes. That's why despite huge supplies and many empty homes, the demand is stronger than ever. The issue is investors. We have limited land and homes but many many investors with unlimited greed and unlimited access to money, both cash and loan from banks.
yes it is ,if investors buy a one million house they pay 150000 tax and firb fee to government, if they rent out they need pay 31%to government, if house unoccupied pay 5000 each year,so it is huge income from them.make government rich,then the government use this income help local poor people,help local no working people. this is what they doing ,this is why
Australia has limited land? Commentary with limited braincells.
Without investors you wouldn't have any rentals! Property values wouldn't be so high if Councils were willing to make concessions and allow development by subdividing plots into 300 m2 lots, we would have more housing for buyers.
I have been living in Mumbai for the past few years and I can state that flats and apartments in Mumbai are much more than Sydney!
High density living is the way forward!
@@kamaldaruwalla6172 Government can provide housing and rentals. Build houses using subcontractors.
@@kamaldaruwalla6172the problem is greedy investors with multiple properties which have exploded in number since Howard turned property ownership into a form of gambling.
When the market crashes I will laugh my arse off as these greedy people are forced to the wall.
Thanks for a great run down on the housing crisis in Australia. All these factors could apply to New Zealand as well where housing prices are out of control too especially in Auckland. As someone who has visited Sydney every year for the last 25 years I can tell you that I believe that your immigration levels have contributed the most to housing unaffordabilty. I was at Chatswood where 47% of the population is new migrants. It looked to be the same in the Sydney cbd. You cannot have uncontrolled immigration and expect the housing supply to keep up with demand. All too easy to just turn on the immigration tap to pump up the economy. Short term gain, long term pain.
In short: If you live in Sydney and Melbourne forget it. Save cash and buy overseas. It's not worth it.
Yes!
Melbourne is still relatively affordable, just depends if you are willing to live further out.
Or buy gold and wait for the global currency reset.
@@gureno19 a buddy of mine recently paid 580k for a town house 2 hours out from the city centre. I'd say that isn't that affordable tbh compared to what you can buy in other countries.
A reason Australians are not buying high density apartment is the new high rises built in the past 15 years are all shonky constructions. Not only are these new high rises dangerous to live in but it can also bankrupt you finanically. Just look at the Sydney Opal Tower. Eitherway I think it is already too late for Australia. The property prices are already super expensive and unaffordable. Wages rise is not a solution becuase the cost of living would skyrocket. The only way to make the properties affordable is a significant price correction but given the realestate value is 400% of the total Australian GDP I don't see how the Australia would voluntarily introduce a significant price correction.
There is "Demand" and then there is something called "Artificial Demand" or "Speculation". The huge issue we have creating speculation is negative gearing and dirty money in Australian real estate. Australia has one of the most lax anti money laundering laws in the developed world. Did you intentionally overlook these important factors?
Housing should be a basic human right and not to be used for speculation. You cannot treat housing like a commodity and it should not be used to get tax breaks.
@@daviddou1408 Australia should not allow the transfer of income streams. In general, taxpayers can only deduct expenses of renting property from their rental income, as renting property out is usually considered a passive activity.
Neg gearing is useless.and contributes essentially nothing to the issue.
@@daviddou1408 yeh and people who are in the red on their properties cant buy 5 and are subsidising the cost of the property with their own income.
@@daviddou1408 im just saying that common perception about N.G. is wrong. You need to be more than covering your mortgage with rent if you hope to buy more than a couple of investments. N.G. properties limit the amount a peraon can buy and by the very nature the owner is paying for part of the mortgage that the renter would otherwise be paying if they were the owner.
When you pay more rent than the mortgage plus outgoings, thats when youre getting screwed, thats when the owner can afford to buy a bunch more like it.
wow, so refreshing to be able to see it all laid out clearly. definitely a stressful time. thanks for the insights!
Stay tuned for the next one. We're in this together.
Thank you for the deep dive. Would you also consider discussing other factors going back to the late 90's and early 2000's? Namely a) the loosening of bank lending requirements. b) the rise of dual income households? These 2 were discussed a long time ago but remain relevant.
Good points
Plus mass uncontrolled immigration
The most well-researched video about this topic by far! Can't wait for part 2!
Thanks for watching!
Australia stopped being the lucky country since 2010 in my opinion. It’s now like the hunger games to live here. I am surprised so many students amd migrants want to come here based on the cost of living, congested cities and transport, and eye watering house prices, no house rentals. Available. I hope the government forewarn migrants to bring there own tent as there are no houses to lives in. Each new migrant that arrives, makes another Australian homeless or unable to find a rental - it’s shocking the amount of migration the government is doing without supplying housing and infrastructure to support the excessive number of new migrants. I feel sorry for the young people who will never be able to afford a home to live in, (only if they are lucky enough to have a rich parents) while investors can have multiple properties who either keep them vacant and claim taxes or use them for short term rentals that also sit vacant most of the year.
Because it's even worse elsewhere...
Your best bet is moving to Alice Springs or Bum fuck nowhere
Alice Springs is actually a nice, well serviced town. @@Antiple
@@brianlove8413 Been there, its not your melb/brissy/syd
The townhouse next to mine has been a rental property for over 20 years. Since the last renter moved out 6-8 weeks ago, it is still vacant even though it is being advertised for rental - where are the so-called 'many' homeless renters. Go figure!!!!
I purchased a home 1 year ago for 480k We have had it evaluated recently so exactly 1 year later and its now worth 660k if we listed it for sale tomorrow. That sounds crazy but is completely in line with current sold homes similar size/ style in the immediate area and surrounds. Absolutely nuts. Our home is a traditional 4x2 and those seem to be getting rare with the amount of small units with no yards being built. Our area isn't great but more families are wanting in due to the older traditional blocks rather than smaller homes.
What area is that? You'd have to pay 2 - 3 times more for outskirts of Sydney.
You have missed the big one. Debt issuance. Banks are willing to lend a far larger mortgage as multiple of income than they would allow 40 years ago. If banks decided to lend only 3 times income as before, instead of over 7 times as now, then goodbye house overprice crisis.
Blame the developers for building shitty apartments these days. Who wants to buy a ticking timebomb.
Yes I am coming back to Australia soon can not for a house but as a single woman in her 60s can buy an apartment or maybe a unit if it is in the outer city but do not want to buy the quality that is around! I will never never never buy new ATM when I see how they are built . Will look for something older that has been done up.
Have millions to hide? Buy some apartments and just leave the doors locked. Still making profit without tenants.
Made in CHINA.!
on the financial policy side you mentioned interest rates, but In your studying, did you find the effects of quantitative easing in boosting asset prices and bank reserves? what about defect spending of governments, pumping money into the economy? I for one more than doubled my house down payment through the effects of these on stock prices and the banks seem to keep on assessing property values higher, allowing ppl to borrow more. it seems any central bank liquidity seems to pump straight into equities. also they money multiplier effect shows that increase in bank lending multiplies the money supply. all things that werent mentioned....
the US has been exporting inflation to the rest of the world and increased the interest rate to attract capital and their over printed US dollar back to the US shore. Do you know that the US mortgage holders are shielded from the interest rate hikes because their home loan is fixed rate for 30 years by law.😂 The rest of the world is fked though.
Mate well done on not only a well put together presentation but doing probably an immense amount of research to identify these key drivers
Thanks so much for watching!
First off, loved your video. I had a few questions though.
1. If negative gearing comes back and investors start snapping up houses, wont that reduce the amount of houses for people actually trying to buy, further driving up the price ?
2. Coming from the construction industry, labour is not driving up the price of construction. Steel fixers are not making 3 x their hourly wage. 12 years ago as an electrician i was on $35 an hour. Fast forward to today and the avg electrician wage is $40. Our wages have been stagnant for so long.
3. Isnt foreign investors another major player ? Both house on either side of me are owned by people who do not live in australia. The house on my left is owned by a person in China, and the house on my right is owned by a person in singapore. Neither are australian citizens.
Are those houses either side of you left empty or are they at least rented out to let someone live in them?
weirdly one of them has only ever had Irish people renting it. 8 years and no one has been in it other than Irish people. The other house has had people in it. Although its just been sold again and now subdivided into 2 tiny lots. @@newsgetsold
Since monetary and fiscal policy is blunt, immigration is one of the few tools stopping Australia from going into recession. Peak retirement is something we should all question.
If you check the work done by the prof. Steve Keen you will understand that immigration has nothing to do with Housing prices
Couple of extra reasons not mentioned.
1. Today's average house is twice as big as it was 30 years ago. Buyers expections and costs have doubled.
2. Those making the rules affecting property prices are heavily invested in property and don't appreciate high prices as being an issue or claim any conflict of interest on things like immigration, infrastructure investment, building incentives
Both of these points missed. Also foreign ownership and short term stay/air bnb.
The primary increase is land cost, not building cost.
You did not talk about foreign buyers, negative gearing, owners that buy up to 32 properties, tax and CGT. You have to consider why home builders are out of business ( i suggest that banks will not allow credit) and politicians heavily invested in properties.
True. These are important factors.
@@daviddou1408 losses are offset against the property owners gross income hence where the tax deduction and refund comes from. Why not make it that losses can only be offset against the rental income - ie if after all expenses are offset against the rental income, there’s an overall loss then the owner wears that, it doesn’t then count as a deduction against the property owners gross income.
Because less than 20,000 people in Australia own 6 or more investment properties.
Thank you for this. I'm glad you state "after 100+ hours of research" in your title. There's so much misinformation and false flags surrounding this issue. If we really want to solve it (and we really _need_ to) we must understand it and we also need to take the emotion out of it. Opinions abound but without facts and hard data then they only serve as a distraction to the real task at hand. Well done doing the work we all need to be doing.
Thanks for watching! Appreciate the support
The one thing not mentioned here is the relaxing of restriction for overseas purchases of Australian property. This alone caused pricing pressure where many dwellings sold at very elevated prices thus forcing the value of other properties to rise. All the other points are valid.
High taxes is why homes cost more to build. Government parasite
It's the main reason.
Sold out by your Government.
Finally, someone like you gave a all rounded in depth analysis of what really happen to the housing shortage, and not just giving a stupid and dumbfounded excuses by pushing all the blame to international students and migrants! International students pushing rental high? how about all the empty houses that specially catered for ABnB short term accommodation businesses etc, which is making top headlines in America and several other big countries that is facing housing shortages and high pricing too! Anyone spoke of this real contributing factor in the parliament? I guess not! As this would directly hurt thousands of locals here in Australia that having 2nd or 3rd homes to cater for short term accommodation businesses, which means this would LESS VOTERS!
Some points.
You can't compare where we live to the US because not sure if you've noticed we have a giant f'ing desert or desert like land that makes most of the continent. We're not North America.
Failure to match the Feds 'big oz' wet dream with huge investment in regional cities outside of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane is a joke. Mass immigration is not a positive with infrastructure.
Rates below 3%, which was the old emergency level, do nothing but produce asset bubbles and inflation. I blame reserves around the world for this, not just Lowe.
This is not a crisis, it is a catastrophe. I know disabled people that have been basically thrown on the street, after rents were jacked up beyond their meager means and rented to international students. We have also locked out a substantial part of the next generation from the security of owning their home, unless they picked the right parents.
The basic government incompetence and the raw greed see I now see is not an Australia that I remotely recognise.
North American has low taxes why homes cheaper . Home ownership in usa 70% in Australia 58% do you see a problem
Not only those last 3 points, also where are all those sellers meant to move to when supply is below a critical level? It's actually going to cause a major issue where you cannot move anywhere and rents sky-rocket.
Long and short of it, we need a lot more supply added. Density can increase in many areas in Sydney right near where I live and those against are denying so much
A well-rounded and in-depth explanation for the current housing situation. Lots of learnings from this video - thanks so much for taking the time to break it down so clearly for us to understand!
Our pleasure!
You briefly mentioned the idea that taking away negative gearing MAY offset rent increases by 2 percent. These are not and ever the right fixes. Ie - what about the then negative effect taking away negative gearing would cause on the investor market if this was actually done. A large proportion would either sell or not choose to invest. Properties don’t become positively geared for about 10 years. There is 10 years of struggle and topping up additional loans above your probably already mortgaged principal place of residence to live with. The property market is an ever changing beast with all its different conditions , tenancy rules, mortgage rates etc not in favour of the investor. If it was removed - why have a rental? The government “relies”on people choosing to invest in property to supply housing demand. There are consequences that are always overlooked by making such statements. It’s a circle of death if you remove the incentives to buy investments. There is a bigger picture, a type of ecosystem that housing works in that requires balance on many levels. When interest rates increase, landlords pay more, if rents don’t assimilate, there is a chance the investor can’t afford and will sell. The balance is inflation and wage review. Real estate and the economy are always in cycle - balance is required. Trying to amend the symptoms does not cure the disease. I appreciate the information - good video.
Please stop harping on with this idea that we will all be facing catastrophe if the landlord investors lose negative gearing and decide to sell because they are no longer able to satisfy their incessant greed by investing in houses anymore. I am sick of hearing this nonsense.
What happens if landlords sell their rental properties? Do you think those properties suddenly cease to exist? No they go on the market, increasing supply thus lowering prices, and people who currently rent buy them to live in because they can now afford them. This has the effect of lowering demand for houses and further lowering prices.
Stop justifying investor greed with your idiotic and ridiculous statements! This is what selfish, money-grabbing investor-landlords would like people to think so that no one supports a policy of removing negative gearing. It’s time for greedy investors to lose their hoarded properties so everyone in society can have their basic needs met and have a home to live in.
There is no longer room here for misleading concepts that insinuate these greedy people are helping our society when all they are doing is increasing their hoard of wealth at the expense of the less fortunate.
You should make a comparison video between the Canadian and the Australian housing crisis. Both sound very similar. great video.
It is the State Governments, restricting the subdivision of land by zoning controls. Just look at the Sydney - Newcastle corridor with all that transport serviced land lying idle with constraints on development !
All that, plus the overblown building regulations causing prices of construction to escalate. You wonder why we have high building prices; land costs because of restrictions, and building costs because of restrictions !
Too much government !
No mention of money laundering, Australia is the centre of money laundering hence so many casinos and high property prices. Wake up...
Yeah, much like Singapore
Stamp duty. They gotta get that stamp duty.
The comment at 17:28 doesn't make sense "high interest rates increase housing stock as people are forced to sell". Sorry, but they still have to live somewhere, so there is no increase in housing stock. They may be forced to sell, but they'll still have to rent or be homeless. There's other things said in this video which is also incorrect on many levels.
Heavily biased and ignorant video I'm afraid. Stop the foreign demand and government schemes and prices will adjust back to where they should be.
This was a great video, really well done. However i really do feel the disucssion around immigration should of been more detailed. It is easy to point out the effects upon the rental market, but some discussion regarding the level of correlation to home prices should of been the logical extension of that. Whether that effect is large or small matters.
Definitely lots to unpack. It looks like this serves more as a primer for many more potential future videos rather than it being 100% comprehensive.
That was a great analysis. I'm impressed you only have 5k subscribers. That is definitely to change with such high quality content. Well done!
Well researched presentation however I think you missed the major contributor and elephant in the room. Immigration of high net worth families and foreign investment!! These people buy their properties for for cash. How can the average Australian compete?
It is true that many foreigners pay cash to buy the properties here. However, most of these foreigners are high-end buyers - meaning that their purchases are multi-million dollar properties and not the 'cheap' homes that the average Australian are competing to buy...
And they aren't permitted to purchase existing homes, only new ones, which encourages (one might argue, subsidises) new home construction
10:36 Another opinion from this, the reasons most homeowners oppose unit construction in built up suburban area is that the roads are no where near wide enough in some areas. Once you add a block of lets say 6 units you've potentially got between 6 - 12 cars that now need spaces. Assuming the developer adds 1 car park per unit, that's still 6 extra cars that now need street parking on an already tight street. I think units are a great way to get people into the market but roads need to be wider with at least 1 lane each way + curb side parking on both sides available, otherwise we're just going to have more people opposing unit construction.
@sfcapitalgroup I think reasons 2 and 3 of why house prices haven't fell should actually make house prices fall. Lower borrowing capacity and lower ability to save for a deposit should dampen demand and hence lower house prices. How come you are stating the opposite here?
Great info on the current state of housing. Thanks SF Capital!
Our pleasure!
Hard disagree. Housing is only unaffordable for those on moderate incomes - its perfectly affordable for the rich. The reason there is a housing crisis is because of the lack of investment in social housing. There is no other cause.
That not home ownership public housing! You wanna go down that path and never own a home like Singapore " Austria
@Michelle_Emm To buy into Sydney now, lets VERY modestly say you need $1.2million. For the repayments on that to be less than 30% of your take home pay, for a double income household, each earner would need to earn on average a whopping $250K. So yeah, based on an "average" Sydney home being "affordable" in today's market, "rich" would be a household with an annual income above $500K (two very high income earners or one ultra high earner).
@@coopsnz1 Expanding public housing would take pressure off the market so that more people could buy properties if they wish.
@@robertjackson8246 high taxation country have less home ownership moron ! Northern Europe less than 50% unless you live in uk 70% home ownership
@@robertjackson8246 125 taxes in Australia the government steal 40% from you min a renter . Do you drink I paid $13 for a scooner of Canadian club it tax 95% to import the government crooks
Good analysis. As you've eloquently described, there are several factors that have/are affecting housing affordability in Australia, and it's not as simple as changing tax rules or removing negative gearing as the media would like to have you believe.
There is another major factor on the supply side of the equation. Successive governments at all levels (local, state, and federal) have neglected maintaining or increasing the supply of low-cost and social housing over many decades -- in fact, many have reduced social housing and sold the corresponding land to developers. Without this more affordable alternative and additional supply, it also creates additional pressure on rental supply. Governments should also be doing the opposite to what they've done in recent years, and that is to increase incentives for small-scale private investments rather than continue to constrain and constrict, therefore allowing an increase in rental stock. This would actually include tax incentives and ensuring that private investors are no worse off than owner-occupiers with lending.
It's a difficult balance, but we've seen the effects of our flawed housing environment. COVID just exacerbated it and highlighted the problems even further.
In my 35 yrs in the building industry, one of the things that really stands out on top of all this is "Expectation". Houses are just way bigger than they were 40-50 years ago. Bigger house means bigger cost.
More government means more building costs aswell . Home ownership declined under socalist bob hawke dick 1987
Bigger house but smaller land.
The land is the thing that goes up in value the most, not the building.
The houses are also made from inferior materials.
To your point though, more building regulations also force up construction costs.
600k migrants, home owner grants, greedy investor politicians all contribute to this. Plus spending 60 billion on a BS Flu.
@@teatowel11exactly! Building costs may have increased but nowhere near the rate that land has gone up. I absolutely believe a large part of this is our culture to live in quarter acre houses and think that because Australia is big we shouldn’t need to worry about this.
Think of other cities with the same population as Sydney and Melbourne, people live in apartments because that’s what they can afford. I’m sure most would prefer a house if they can afford it. Here, whenever a proposal to have high rises , the nimbies go out in force and shut it down. I’m not a fan of apartments either but I’ve come to accept that we’re at the population level that we need to go up if we want to afford a home, have the convenience of going places without sitting on a train or traffic jam for 2hrs. In other words, we need to change our way of living
you joking land cheaper in west sydney than building a home @@decepticons_destroy
It certainly did not help at all when your elder sisters are forcing you to lend them money to buy the house that they cannot afford with no intention to returning the money ever, because those money came from my parents? Why the F*** did I even work at all. Sure Australia is having a housing crisis now, it just brings the worse out of human. Apart from developers and some home owners/AirBNB renters monetising the crisis. This really sickness me more.
Young people should have bought fifty years ago 🤦♂️
Or invest in rich parents
@@lee00402
Or move countries
The fact that Paul Keating introduced negative gearing in the '1990's was missed. The fact that governments stopped building public housing was missed. Scrap negative gearing, stop immigration, bring the cash rate up to 7.5%, build public housing, at the level it was in the '70's and 80's, and see what happens to house prices.
Best comment so far!
that doesnt fix home ownership more public housing built it more expensive in switzaland
Canadian pension funds In 2022, CDPQ's real estate division, Ivanhoe Cambridge, opened an office in Sydney and currently has about C$2 billion in real estate investments in the country, with projections to have about C$3.5 billion in the next three to four years.
Australian Property Investor - "Foreign Investment Review Board data showed China was the single largest source of offshore investment in Australian residential real estate in the fourth quarter of last year at $600 million."
+ the Australian Government is allowing another 200,000 immigrants to come here.... during a housing crisis.... I'm 57yo and I'm absolutely embarrassed by what this once great country has become.... it's a disgrace...
Back in the heyday of the 90s though, in all Anglo cities like Brisbane, which had half the population it does now, the lack of immigration from non-Anglo countries led to it being impossible to get any kind of job for someone not in ethnic mainstream. You literally had to be full Anglo or Celtic to get a job, due to the extreme ethnic homogenity of the population and resistance against immigration. The floodgates opened in the mid-00s however and 20 years later that mentality has become a thing of the past, opening up a wide spectrum of economic opportunities to groups previously excluded from that. So the 90s was the last full decade of the preservation of the traditional way of life in Australia, but only for the predominant ethnic group - not for those from other countries, even if they were born and raised here and even if they were half-Anglo. It was an "all or nothing" society as far as your ethnic origins went - all for the main ethnicity, none for the rest. Most Italians, Chinese, Russians then become doctors or dentists as they would have been unemployed otherwise, whereas now they do a much wider spectrum of work, maybe not Law, but IT, business etc. 25 years ago their ethnic background was the main factor determining their [un]employment - which sounds bizarre today but that has only been undone via unfettered immigration.
@@ReturnOfTheJ.D. What is wrong with a homogenous society? Most countries outside of the west are fairly homogenous, and they like it that way (and there is nothing wrong with that). I wouldn't go and live in Thailand or Japan or Uzbekistan (or many other countries) and expect to get a job as a tradie, or supermarket manager, or nurse etc. I would expect those local jobs to go to those who designed and created that society. Basically those who that society belongs to. Why is it that white people are the only people on the planet who aren't allowed to have a country or society that is geared for their own people? And if you want one, (like most other races have) you are automatically evil and racist? Minorities have the western country they live in (which has to cater to them) PLUS an ancestral homeland geared for their own people. White people aren't even allowed a homeland without that homeland being besieged, and demands that it must cater to everyone from any corner of the globe that comes (along with automatic cries of 'racism' if they don't get special treatment or if someone looks at them twice). I remember an Egyptian actor whining that there weren't enough parts for Egyptian actors in Hollywood. My response? Because you're not in fucking Egypt, you m0ron!
Second home buying should be banned for short time till we overcome these housi crisis and no one from overseas should be allowed to buy land
Australia can allow foreigners to invest in other areas but not in housing or land.
Government must let Australians have shelter because this is very basic necessity of life.
with our gov allowing 300,000 migrants coming into the country....no joke there is not enough houses....
A few ideas:
1. Auctions for residential property to be illegal and inake all valuers independent under a regulated body rather than employed by real estate agents
2. Heavy residential property vacancy tax and/or converting long-term empty residential property into social housing
3. Disincentivise housing speculation and restrict number of investment residential properties owned per person/household/trust
4. Only citizens and permanent residents who livec in Australia for a certain amount of years can own residential property
Bringing in 1 million immigrants within 12 months is the primary driver for our entire cost of living and housing crisis. We can only currently build 150k homes per year so where are these people going to live?
Nobody seems to even ask this question - maybe they just assume it won’t be next door to them?!
Average net overseas migration is lower in the periods since the start of covid than before it, even with that spike.
Even 220,000 people per year is way too many for 40,000 homes built per year. Obviously, this will lead to australia becoming a slum.
Excellent assessment.
Now add 4 banks, silly profits, our super in share market where 40ish pc is 4 banks, tax those banks pay, the variable rates bank can charge when fixed prices and incomes are in place and as you list builders going bust, etc. Massive add to your model. One last. Rba does not account for international economy which impacts property prices with international buyers...
The dream of home ownership was killed by Labour's immigration policy.
The influx of 500,000 immigrants in 2023 has used up all available houses and rentals. We need to add a policy to incentivise building homes to increase supply. The Northern Territory has a $25,000 home building grant. They are the only state that has 3%+ rental vacancies. Then we need a policy which makes the cost of building a house cheaper. Buying an established house will never cost less than costs to build a house, or else everyone would build instead as it would be the more affordable option. Lower the cost to build, increase house supply, lower immigration to 80% of the number of houses built the year before. If supply is kept in surplus, then houses and rentals will be affordable as supply will be higher than demand.
As long as Labour is in power, immigration will always be high, as they are the party of immigration. Both by illegal boat people or legal by upping the immigration cap. Labour has already stated they want 1.5 million immigrants in 5 years. That the population of Adelaide! I haven't seen a new capital city built recently, have you?
The projected immigration rate is beyond scary yet it’s barely mentioned anywhere. Where do people think all these immigrants are going to live? Not next door to them?!
Isn't that Adelaide line from Dutton's speech? Net Overseas Migration (NOM) averaged 214k from September 2013 through to June 2018. In the next 5 years over the same periods, NOM averaged 192k even with the 500k figure, because thousands of people left during covid. Ergo, we're still below average and what was expected and housing affordability issues didn't just magically appear this year. See ABS migration statistics for more. First home buyer grants increase property prices, see cross party Victorian Property Market Review 2023 (chaired by an LNP member no less), 2012 Study by Deakin University post GFC, etc, for more.
@@felixonthemac But during that Covid period with no migration, were we building houses like normal? No, we were all locked down and masked. All construction was pretty much stopped. So Labor had huge migration to catch up on the 2 years "we lost", but we never did anything to catch up on the housing. To get an immigrant you let them in. To build a house, you need about 8 months.
It is a conundrum.
Vast country, less than 30 M people, less just one city f.e. Tokio.
And then a house shortage?
why does the government enlarge the immigration intake so dramatically post covid？Internation studnets and Cheaper but skilled labour - remember during the pandemic how the universities were crying as they were starving for lack of international students, and how the businesses were crying for labour shortage？😅
They've sold out the country Australia is finished with the hoarde of immigrants from india and asia
Strongly disagree that low rates are not a major contributor to house prices. If people weren't able to take out such huge mortgages, the money needed to reach the prices they have just would not have ever happened.
It's easy to talk about supply-and-demand but:
1) That only moves price up or down relative to a certain amount, it doesn't dictate what that initial balanced price is, and
2) We need to apply supply-and-demand to the supply of money itself, not just the supply of housing.
If rates had never gone below, say, 5%, all else being equal, while the housing market would still be tough (low supply + high demand) prices would still be lower than what they are. And yes, they'd still be elevated over where they would otherwise be, but they still wouldn't average $1m.
Sure, interest rates, it's not the only factor, there are many. But it's the most significant, followed by immigration.
Also, I reckon negative gearing is a red herring. It would be far less impactful if prices of mortgages and houses were simply reduced, which should be the first priority anyway.
Come on Charlie give me a break it's called supply and demand we've open the front door come in come all especially if your cashed up and you wonder why inflation is not coming down our productivity is low and bringing in cheap labour keeps wages down good luck Straya
Not wrong mate
This guy is a chump
One point not discussed was that the reason Australians don't want to live in high density housing is because the quality, location and design of units are generally very poor and offer low levels of lifestyle. Plus very high strata fees and all the dramas involved in living on top of each other.
Great content. Another important factor is the low interest environment, coinciding with the baby boomers capitalising on the cheap lending costs. Today, they represent 25% of the population, yet they own 50% of the total property market. This is also contributing to the supply issue.
Absolutely. Thanks, Adam. We really appreciate the input!
One of the best economics and financial channels, information are professional, sensible and backed up responsible data & facts. Well done and keep up the good work mate.
I thinking i should buy property overseas because i can't afford property here.
Gee when you base an entire economy on housing and mining what could possibly go wrong?
Real solid! Hope the govt can do a better job in serving the younger generation.
Agreed! Thanks for watching!
younger generation has no money leftover to lobby the govt, so the status quo will not change.
A huge impact on housing prices is people are more often living as singles. Either due to divorce, seperation, or a lack of desire to seek a permanent partner, the large part of the population that is opting to not live together is resulting in many more dwellings being required.
Add to this single parent families, which require multiple rooms, and you get a high desire for more large dwellings per capita.
I myself can think of many acquaintances that insist on multi bedroom dwellings despite being single. It is simply not sustainable.
Not to mentions infinite irresponsible use of quantative easing.
Clearly explained without all the jargon and easy to follow. You summarised this topic amazingly well in 20 minutes that most would take at least an hour to explain. You have earned a new subscriber. Please also do a video on inflation and how this isn't a bad thing if controlled well with good monetary policy.
Any entity individual or legal or trust owning more than 2 properties should be made a criminal offense and the property seized immediately.
Give you an example, Regional Australia.
1990 Gov Job, wage: $30k gross, house Price: $60k.
2022, same Gov Job, wage: $72k gross, same house unrenovated apart from 2 coats of paint. Now: $900k.
This seems to be missed by so many people! Incomes have fallen so far behind the general cost of living and especially house prices it’s not funny…
Blaming house prices on slow planning approvals is such a cop out and it's purely profit driven by developers.
It's like saying "we need more fire trucks to put out these fires that keep starting" when what you need to do is take the matches off the kid who keeps starting them.
Great content and delivery. Your video looks and sounds amazing !!
Thank you for watching!
I lost a house in the Brisbane floods due to climate change. My house in Rocklea sat under water for 3 days...you could imagine what was left...a mere shell. I lost my rental at Tweed Heads to greedy landlords cashing in on those who lost their homes in the Murwillumbah, Lismore and Ballina floods, due to climate change. After the floods my rent went from $350 to $680 within a few months because they knew people were desperate for accommodation....Climate change is causing a lot of underlying issues. Fires, floods etc. Instead of a 1 in 100 year flood we now have 2 or 3 in 10 years and its getting WORSE. Fires are getting worse because of rainfall (lack of), vegetation and drought.
No-one gives a $hit. The rich get richer and the poor poorer and it's the greedy rich who are the climate change skeptics and deniers. They're the ones who take advantage of the "little people" even in their most vulnerable state....THEY DO NOT CARE as long they keep the $$$ rolling in. When's enough enough? I'm 55yo, Ive worked my whole life and all I now own is a $10,000 car. If my parents hadn't offered me a room I'd be on the streets...just like many others. Mark my words...a revolution is coming.
Climate change …really
Hear, hear!
I’m sorry to hear that. Take care of yourself.
Very thorough. Ta. My own analysis put the blame on nimbys+zoning regulations (which are linked) and immigration. Commonwealth wants cheap workers for nominal gdp growth. Ppl say no to devs because they re selfish but also because they know infrastructure will be lacklustre given the states have to beg for infra money.
Ask who will pay for the present generation in retirment in about 20 to 30 years. The only reason i can retire in any comfort is the low income earners support offered by the Victorian goverment in the early 80's. On one income (tradesmans low wage then) with 2 children and a stay at home partner i could build a new house in the dandenong ranges. Owning my home outright means no housing payments, making the pension adequate. Now an imposability for the following generations due to governent appthy and their caving in to wealth and power.