Since 2003, I believe, the top selling vehicle in Canada has been the Ford F-Series. Since 2017, 70%+ of vehicles sales have been SUV's and trucks. Unless all these vehicles magically run on salt-water tomorrow, this crisis isn't going away.
I remember when I was finishing up my MBA in 1999 oil was around $ 12 a barrel. I worked in the shale industry during the boom in the Marcellus and Utica plays and remember all the younger guys buying expensive trucks and houses while I was driving my old Honda lol. When it all fell apart due to overproduction it wiped out a ton of jobs in my area. Oil is brutally cyclical and demand destruction is a real thing. Oil companies are a good investment, just be careful and have an exit plan.
I remember bottled waters like Evian were much more expensive than gasoline. I also remember around the great financial collapse (2008), gasoline was so expensive some well-to-do people were selling off their Hummers.
I am heavily invested in O&G Canadian companies, but I wouldn't want oil to go higher than $120. There would be a short boom, but then a quick bust. Better to keep is slow and steady - $100-$120 in 2022-23.
Yes, every day at 100$ they can pay of debt and generate further cash for share buyback. I hope it will play out great, and I still see many opportunities in those companies.
Eric Nutjob is full of BS. Wonder how much this cat gets paid for moron predictions. The moment he said this I knew it was the signal to sell all my oil positions.
I want to see Eric Nutsalot rassle with Damien Courvalin in a shirtless / jean wearing/barefoot free for all on the Goldman front lawn. I’d pay $180 to see that contest .
The most popular well completion in the last decade was a HZ well. The production decline of HZ wells is much faster than Vertical Completions. The saying “Drill Baby Drill” was essential to sustain oil and gas production plateaus. Sustaining production rates without drilling, at a time when fracking is being prohibited and more drilling shunned by investors, is going to see larger shortfalls occurring faster than most realize.
Valuations at a little over 3 years FCF is crazy to consider. Can’t lose. If oil prices go down the valuations are still justified and you collect the dividends. Not bad for a worst case scenario. If oil stays over $100 either valuation re-rates to take into account FCF or valuations stay the same and the companies buy back the majority of shares. Either way the share prices moon in these later two scenarios.
USA is (releasing) selling 1 million barrels a day into the markets......And Crude Oil prices are going higher. What happens when they have to go in and buy them to replace the strategic reserve?
Yes. I remember someone on BNN around that time saying oil was going up to $500 a barrel and that it could happen within a couple years. I thought he was nuts and of course prices came down a lot. The difference this time, as Eric often mentions, is the underinvestment in O&G capex because of ESG. Just over a year ago, the big 6 oil companies were being grilled by Congress for misleading the public about climate change and telling them they need to reduce capex even more.
@@mako88sb I believe u r correct - the very real changes to policy regarding emissions, the cause and effect, with all especially the big producers putting investments, research and development into renewables and having to move away from r and d of fossil fuels makes this energy "boom" different. It is much more difficult to simply drill away when prices go high, there are very real legal restraints across the globe pertaining to climate targeting oil that sets higher prices up for years. We shall see, but look at the lower and zero emissions guarantees forcthe next 20 plus years,, the lack of new, big oil projects by the big producers looking to meet these targets, and the ripple effects including less investment in the sector, fewer workers learning the trade - these things are not easily undone, and there is little effort to undo them by those who make the policies.
Well its May 24th 2022 look out your window and check the price of a gal of gas. Oil is Abiotic what idiot would call oil fossil fuel, the same bone heads who think oil wont go to 200 dollars the same ones who believe in global warming, same ones who buy wind mills, You and Don Quixote are in the same world. Were like one minute from a nuclear war and you are talking about investments sick.
Then shale production oversupplied market from 2015-2021. Now we are back to high prices with a tight market and very little investment growth in exploration, especially when compared to 2008-2014 time period
Lack of investment and a supply shift due to sanctions can cause this. It's just a matter of time as we are consuming more than produced. Rates will have to hike hard and oil prices will have to skyrocket to bring equilibrium back to the market and reduce the daily demand. There is a similar story happening with uranium, not enough investment and demand far exceeds supply. Eventually it will squeeze and you'll see uranium above $200/lb, the only difference is that uranium can sustain that price without killing the economy, which is why most governments around the world are clueless morons who need to realise that nuclear power is the best way to curb inflation going forward. It's a bit late for that though, as uranium mines can take 10 years until production and NPP's take 5 years to build. Consumers are doomed, and you can thank your moronic governments for their lack of baseload energy diversification.
It's been reached before I think (in inflation adjusted terms) but not sustainable I agree, not does it have to be. On the other hand UK has had $5/gallon gasoline forever, currently $9.
@@tbayley6 I believe that the UK is far less reliant on petrol than the US. Many things are shipped by rail vs. truck, far fewer people have to drive to work (again, rail & bus system). Vehicles are also smaller --no one seems to be able to convince Americans that they don't need large pickup trucks
The coming recession will curtail oil demand. The Russian effect will be short lived as the market readjusts. Long term oil is irreplaceable, climate change or no.
Morals? Perhaps other countries don't think that events on the other side of the world are any of their business? Or perhaps they don't agree with the current narrative?
People arent complaining yet because the are sitting on piles of cash accumulated during the pandemic! Once that cash gets spent then the worry will begin.
We are not there yet. We have been. The oil manipulation it’s been here for the last 100 yrs but you are right people don’t do drastic changes they are just to it the prices manipulation for so long oil it’s a blood y business
If solar PV price drops significantly it will give oil 🛢️ run for it's money 💸 180$ seems reasonable. It prevents resource overconsumption :) And gives more room for green tech to thrive 🙂
oil at $180 will bring on greater oil output, not less. Sustained $180 would bring on global recession, killing capex spending on green energy infrastructure. $180 oil is bad for all, including oil companies that will be hit with thick political spite taxes.
The cost of food goes up as do all consumer goods , we pay more for less SSDD and baby you anit seen nothing yet ... oil will go above $200 a barrle by x mass
Why do creators always show actual barrels when talking about oil? Sure, it's measured in barrels, but 99.9999 percent of the stuff is sold not in barrels.
I guess it's the same reason they keep illustrating Bitcoin by showing a gold coin with a B on it. Because Bitcoin and a gold coin are kind of the same.
@@nickgreek6449 No doubt it will trigger further transition, however I an concerned about future production price of EVs in case of such high energy price. All materials have skyrocketed due to high input cost.
@@nickgreek6449 the problem is that even EV’s have high petroleum inputs through the mining of rare earth minerals. I am still skeptical that they are the solution we need. We cannot even recycle black plastic in many jurisdictions in Canada and we are supposedly going to be able to recycle the multitude of batteries that will be made for all these electric cars?
@@nickgreek6449 I agree. Hydrogen fuel produced by solar energy tech like Heliogen (this tech still needs further improvements for reliability and stability) would be a great move for better climate change action.
I remember when my dad gave me a quarter to go get gas to cut the grass. 20 cents for the gas and 5 cents for a candy bar! The American people diserve this so the higher the better!
I think russia will have long contract with china and india at lower price And then russia will increase spot price during winter time. Eventually They can have both profit and longterm buyer.
@@TMM-N Which is why they have gone back to using more coal. Unfortunately they get a lot of coal from Russia so they have asked Australia and Indonesia to up there exports. That’s going to take some time for them to ramp up production enough to make a difference.
@@drmodestoesq You might turn off the propaganda and go check your data there, guy. Simply go look at the Euro to Ruble. Or look at Russia's oil revenue's from the last few months. Nothing about either of those are screaming Russia's economy circling a drain.
Long term electrification of vehicles and other new energy projects will reduce demand. Oil companies know this is the beginning of the end of a 100 year run. They won't be "nice" on the way down.
Fuel, energy - gas, electricity, water, and water are about to ramp up all their prices out of proportion. Insurance will sky rocket, and we're about to see a global depression as never witnessed in the history before. There is no more money to throw at this, and buckle up as the ride gets tougher this "Winter of Discontent"
Hate say this but we should have been there already. No one really buying Russian oil that much, and Saudi Arabia and UAE has taken 10 million barrels of oil off line to try and keep the price up. Right now Russians don't have any place to store their oil, once it back up in the pipeline they have shut down their oil wells. Now Russia is frozen which means it could take 10 years to pressurize the oil well to get it flowing oil again. So another 6 million gallons of oil is going to go off line as well.
@@bobrien21 sure they do. You've clearly never met one of these people at, say, a 5☆ ski resort. I've met plenty, and they're completely dillusional as to what level of life is even enough. Do we all forget the Enron example, lol..
Since 2003, I believe, the top selling vehicle in Canada has been the Ford F-Series. Since 2017, 70%+ of vehicles sales have been SUV's and trucks.
Unless all these vehicles magically run on salt-water tomorrow, this crisis isn't going away.
I remember when I was finishing up my MBA in 1999 oil was around $ 12 a barrel. I worked in the shale industry during the boom in the Marcellus and Utica plays and remember all the younger guys buying expensive trucks and houses while I was driving my old Honda lol. When it all fell apart due to overproduction it wiped out a ton of jobs in my area. Oil is brutally cyclical and demand destruction is a real thing. Oil companies are a good investment, just be careful and have an exit plan.
Thanks wise words in your comment of oil.
I remember bottled waters like Evian were much more expensive than gasoline. I also remember around the great financial collapse (2008), gasoline was so expensive some well-to-do people were selling off their Hummers.
SAME STORY as me when I drilled wells in Williston
1999 was pre-bush 2 and pre-$3.00 gal gas.. causes thereafter can be debated, but in the end it all a racket!!
*.......yup. agreed.*
I am heavily invested in O&G Canadian companies, but I wouldn't want oil to go higher than $120. There would be a short boom, but then a quick bust. Better to keep is slow and steady - $100-$120 in 2022-23.
If oil hits $150, we'll be 18 months from a financial collapse.
Good call ! Everyone does well in that price range.
Yes, every day at 100$ they can pay of debt and generate further cash for share buyback. I hope it will play out great, and I still see many opportunities in those companies.
For an oil producer that range maximises the economic profit, however the crunch is ineventable at some point.
Yup. I am actually happy to take guranteed $80 for next 5 years if it is offered. Still printing massive money at $80
Bravo Eric. She should have allotted 30 minutes for Eric. The man knows what he's talking about.
Eric Nutjob is full of BS. Wonder how much this cat gets paid for moron predictions. The moment he said this I knew it was the signal to sell all my oil positions.
@@georgiabigfoot i bought and they are up. You lose
Eric is the man!
I want to see Eric Nutsalot rassle with Damien Courvalin in a shirtless / jean wearing/barefoot free for all on the Goldman front lawn. I’d pay $180 to see that contest .
Eric you are my best and most favourite analyst ❤
Gas prices are high by design. Same as inflation. Lie by omission politics.
The most popular well completion in the last decade was a HZ well. The production decline of HZ wells is much faster than Vertical Completions. The saying “Drill Baby Drill” was essential to sustain oil and gas production plateaus. Sustaining production rates without drilling, at a time when fracking is being prohibited and more drilling shunned by investors, is going to see larger shortfalls occurring faster than most realize.
I think M King Hubbert was right on the money.. very smart man.
Valuations at a little over 3 years FCF is crazy to consider. Can’t lose. If oil prices go down the valuations are still justified and you collect the dividends. Not bad for a worst case scenario. If oil stays over $100 either valuation re-rates to take into account FCF or valuations stay the same and the companies buy back the majority of shares. Either way the share prices moon in these later two scenarios.
Is there something that could prevent oil company to privatize ? Thanks !
Eric pointed out Cardinal Energy around a dollar. Thanks Eric!
I first bought CJ 5 years ago at $6.27 ..I held it all this time and actually bought more at lower prices .I am happy I didn;t give up.
Great interview !
USA is (releasing) selling 1 million barrels a day into the markets......And Crude Oil prices are going higher. What happens when they have to go in and buy them to replace the strategic reserve?
Does anyone remember 2007? “High oil is here to stay” was all we heard.
Yes. I remember someone on BNN around that time saying oil was going up to $500 a barrel and that it could happen within a couple years. I thought he was nuts and of course prices came down a lot. The difference this time, as Eric often mentions, is the underinvestment in O&G capex because of ESG. Just over a year ago, the big 6 oil companies were being grilled by Congress for misleading the public about climate change and telling them they need to reduce capex even more.
@@mako88sb I believe u r correct - the very real changes to policy regarding emissions, the cause and effect, with all especially the big producers putting investments, research and development into renewables and having to move away from r and d of fossil fuels makes this energy "boom" different. It is much more difficult to simply drill away when prices go high, there are very real legal restraints across the globe pertaining to climate targeting oil that sets higher prices up for years. We shall see, but look at the lower and zero emissions guarantees forcthe next 20 plus years,, the lack of new, big oil projects by the big producers looking to meet these targets, and the ripple effects including less investment in the sector, fewer workers learning the trade - these things are not easily undone, and there is little effort to undo them by those who make the policies.
Well its May 24th 2022 look out your window and check the price of a gal of gas. Oil is Abiotic what idiot would call oil fossil fuel, the same bone heads who think oil wont go to 200 dollars the same ones who believe in global warming, same ones who buy wind mills, You and Don Quixote are in the same world. Were like one minute from a nuclear war and you are talking about investments sick.
Yeah and it did stay from 2007 to 2015
Then shale production oversupplied market from 2015-2021. Now we are back to high prices with a tight market and very little investment growth in exploration, especially when compared to 2008-2014 time period
I have found Mr. Nuttall very knowledgeable concerning the oil industry. With his insights I’ve made money.
How did you make money after this stupid prediction? I hope you sold to all the bag holders.
How much have you made?
According to Peter Zeihan the last time the Russian oil industry shut down it took them 30 years to recover.
Who’s “them”? Russia or the oil industry?
The entire US economy would implode into a severe recession if oil even approaches $180. No way is that price level reachable or sustainable
No worries, the Biden regime to the rescue!!!
One china reopens and EU fabric replace gas with oil.
Lack of investment and a supply shift due to sanctions can cause this. It's just a matter of time as we are consuming more than produced. Rates will have to hike hard and oil prices will have to skyrocket to bring equilibrium back to the market and reduce the daily demand. There is a similar story happening with uranium, not enough investment and demand far exceeds supply. Eventually it will squeeze and you'll see uranium above $200/lb, the only difference is that uranium can sustain that price without killing the economy, which is why most governments around the world are clueless morons who need to realise that nuclear power is the best way to curb inflation going forward. It's a bit late for that though, as uranium mines can take 10 years until production and NPP's take 5 years to build. Consumers are doomed, and you can thank your moronic governments for their lack of baseload energy diversification.
It's been reached before I think (in inflation adjusted terms) but not sustainable I agree, not does it have to be. On the other hand UK has had $5/gallon gasoline forever, currently $9.
@@tbayley6 I believe that the UK is far less reliant on petrol than the US. Many things are shipped by rail vs. truck, far fewer people have to drive to work (again, rail & bus system). Vehicles are also smaller --no one seems to be able to convince Americans that they don't need large pickup trucks
Dont destroy the wine and oil
$200 a barrel by Christmas, just watch...
Sorry, no that would have happen by now.
I've been watching 😅 What's your next prediction?
The coming recession will curtail oil demand. The Russian effect will be short lived as the market readjusts. Long term oil is irreplaceable, climate change or no.
Once china reopen, it will replace the shortfall in europe
Asian market is booming
The only one that express my outlook. The new floor for oil is 100USD per barrel. That's simply how it is now.
Are you sure?
@@kazkaskazkas8689 Not anymore.
Morals? Perhaps other countries don't think that events on the other side of the world are any of their business? Or perhaps they don't agree with the current narrative?
People arent complaining yet because the are sitting on piles of cash accumulated during the pandemic! Once that cash gets spent then the worry will begin.
Yep
This guy knows what he is talking about
We are not there yet. We have been. The oil manipulation it’s been here for the last 100 yrs but you are right people don’t do drastic changes they are just to it the prices manipulation for so long oil it’s a blood y business
the highest oil have been is i think 140. i think 150/160. but 180 is extreme.
If you see 150 oil you will see depression. I think 80 to 110 range for coming summer could accepted by consumers. Above 120 makes it very bad.
When is this $180 oil coming?
Hasn't even sustained $90 this year 😅
What happened to that $180 oil?
Hmmm 🤔😅
$180 a barrel of oil in the United States is unexceptional.
If solar PV price drops significantly it will give oil 🛢️ run for it's money 💸
180$ seems reasonable. It prevents resource overconsumption :) And gives more room for green tech to thrive 🙂
oil at $180 will bring on greater oil output, not less. Sustained $180 would bring on global recession, killing capex spending on green energy infrastructure. $180 oil is bad for all, including oil companies that will be hit with thick political spite taxes.
Well, not happening any time soon
$180 oil? Let's first reach the sustainable $90 😅
he doesn t mention that the dollar is already 20% less thius year.
By design
I’m driving electric today. Lots of good options today. Used too.
The cost of food goes up as do all consumer goods , we pay more for less SSDD and baby you anit seen nothing yet ... oil will go above $200 a barrle by x mass
too bad this prediction never came true....
Where is the $180 Oil? You made me lose everything. What a clown.
So far this is not true. Today, 24 May morming, oil is below 109 dol.
what do you have to say now?
@@bobrien21 well, today 7th june 15:40 GMT+1 oil is 121 dol (brent). Still far from 180 dol.
@@bobrien21 How about now?
Yahoooooo .....
Trillion energy. Canadian Natural Gas player in Turkey off the Black Sea. 5-10x in next yr. Thank me later
Why do creators always show actual barrels when talking about oil? Sure, it's measured in barrels, but 99.9999 percent of the stuff is sold not in barrels.
I guess it's the same reason they keep illustrating Bitcoin by showing a gold coin with a B on it. Because Bitcoin and a gold coin are kind of the same.
Measured in barrels
I love these analysts. You cannot use oil at 180$ a barrel. The markets will collapse first…. Which they already are.
maybe that would be the trigger to make consumers buy more and more EVs?
@@nickgreek6449 No doubt it will trigger further transition, however I an concerned about future production price of EVs in case of such high energy price. All materials have skyrocketed due to high input cost.
@@nickgreek6449 the problem is that even EV’s have high petroleum inputs through the mining of rare earth minerals. I am still skeptical that they are the solution we need. We cannot even recycle black plastic in many jurisdictions in Canada and we are supposedly going to be able to recycle the multitude of batteries that will be made for all these electric cars?
@@Rob9345 I think hydrogen will be the ultimate solution
@@nickgreek6449 I agree. Hydrogen fuel produced by solar energy tech like Heliogen (this tech still needs further improvements for reliability and stability) would be a great move for better climate change action.
No,$180 a barrel isn't inevitable...Demand destruction is already happening in Europe and Asia. People will simply drive less and create more supply.
While all of you armchair economists theorize about market forces, regular people are being crushed by astronomical fuel costs.
#PBR 🫧
Oh really? Which crystal ball is he looking at? I got mine from Walmart, he must have got his from Harrods.
seems his is better than yours
PEAK OIL has ARRIVED!
yay! woohoo 😅
This woman's eyes are scary....
I remember when my dad gave me a quarter to go get gas to cut the grass. 20 cents for the gas and 5 cents for a candy bar! The American people diserve this so the higher the better!
Why so bitter?
I think russia will have long contract with china and india at lower price And then russia will increase spot price during winter time. Eventually They can have both profit and longterm buyer.
Europe cant replace gas fast enough due to under investment or under production from OPEC
@@TMM-N Which is why they have gone back to using more coal. Unfortunately they get a lot of coal from Russia so they have asked Australia and Indonesia to up there exports. That’s going to take some time for them to ramp up production enough to make a difference.
Do Americans admit that the sanction against Russia has failed? And, that the inflation is being worsened by the sanction?
How have they failed?
Russia's economy is circling the drain. Putin had to raise interest rates to the mid teens.
I do. Most American's appear to be brainwashed by our propaganda machine so I don't speak for them.
@@drmodestoesq You might turn off the propaganda and go check your data there, guy. Simply go look at the Euro to Ruble. Or look at Russia's oil revenue's from the last few months. Nothing about either of those are screaming Russia's economy circling a drain.
Massive Russian govt support, can only sustain for limited time.
Long term electrification of vehicles and other new energy projects will reduce demand. Oil companies know this is the beginning of the end of a 100 year run. They won't be "nice" on the way down.
LoL. U kids are funny. Gotta turn off the cartoons, boy. They are rotting your brain.
What energy source will electric cars get their power? Inquiring minds want to know! Unicorns and fairy dust?!?!?!?
@@TheGogobutt Don't forget dragon piss and goblin blood.
@@TheGogobutt yeah you havent heard? Future cars will be made of solar panel.
the more people who think that, the higher the price will go. Bring it on.
Fuel, energy - gas, electricity, water, and water are about to ramp up all their prices out of proportion. Insurance will sky rocket, and we're about to see a global depression as never witnessed in the history before. There is no more money to throw at this, and buckle up as the ride gets tougher this "Winter of Discontent"
Hate say this but we should have been there already. No one really buying Russian oil that much, and Saudi Arabia and UAE has taken 10 million barrels of oil off line to try and keep the price up. Right now Russians don't have any place to store their oil, once it back up in the pipeline they have shut down their oil wells. Now Russia is frozen which means it could take 10 years to pressurize the oil well to get it flowing oil again. So another 6 million gallons of oil is going to go off line as well.
Uhhh, let's uhhh talk about uhhh how the reporter is uhhhhh bad at her v job
thank Biden for high oil prices.nk Thank y
send trumpee .." Mo Money"
ugh... how old is this guy? he looks like he just graduated from college
I Only wish I Had Looked Like That At 41 Years Of Age,He's 41 Years Old.
If you dont know who is Nuttal dontour Dd.
;)
Unless there is a full ban on Russian Oil, there is no way Oil Price even get close to $180.
Morals? What morals? Lol
Morals would mean less profits, not making it harder for families to enjoy life. Gtfoh
sorry. companies dont operate on hopes and dreams.
@@bobrien21 sure they do. You've clearly never met one of these people at, say, a 5☆ ski resort. I've met plenty, and they're completely dillusional as to what level of life is even enough. Do we all forget the Enron example, lol..
Eric when is your next report? Can you send me your contact info?🎉