Canada probably already in recession: David Rosenberg
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.ย. 2024
- Economist David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, talks with Financial Post's Larysa Harapyn about the state of the Canadian economy and how the Bank of Canada should cut interest rates now.
Recession! Crash! Inflation! It’s getting depressing. I have about $100k in emergency fund and I have been seeing good news about the stock market and would like to gain from that since I can’t let my savings be corroded by inflation. What stocks should I into as a newbie to safely grow my money.
Its best if you buy growth/blue-chip/large caps stocks only. Also, as a newbie its advisable you work with an investment advisor to help set up a well-structured portfolio.
Apt!! I was self managing but suffered heavy losses in 2022 and i knew i couldn't continue like that, so i consulted a fiduciary financial advisor. By restructuring and diversifying my $620k portfolio with dividend-paying stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds and REITs, I significantly boosted my portfolio, achieving an annualized gain of 30%.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
Well, I chose Sharon Ann Meny as my advisor after her interview on CNBC In 2020. She is SEC regulated with offices in the US and quite frankly a genius with portfolio diversification.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
The news about Canada's economy collapse is not new. the media are currently being inundated with the news of economic meltdown. It takes a lot to look past the sea of headlines and focus on what's important: No matter how low stock prices fall, they keep rising. I completely ignore all news and continue to invest. I recently set aside $40,000 to invest in the market as we anticipate a collapse. Do you have any suggestions?
The market will continue to fall, so I recommend you do a fundamental and technical analysis of the stocks of the companies you want to buy and their data forecasts for the next few years. Better yet, you could have an investment advisor help you restructure your entire portfolio and balance the bad apples you're holding. This strategy has worked for me so far, saved me a lot of stress, and is also very time efficient.
I completely agree, which is why I prefer to delegate daily decision-making to an investment adviser. It is difficult for them to underperform given their specialized knowledge and research, as well as the fact that every one of their abilities is geared toward utilizing risk for its asymmetrical potential, and mitigating risk of capital loss. I've been working with an investment advisėr for over two years, and have made over a quarter million dollar. It's really beneficial.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
🤖 bots
The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the canadian dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.
Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
Svetlana Sarkisian Chowdhury is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Exactly, it's a lagging indicator and hence we have not seen the effect of carbon tax increase yet. They should not be cutting now. If they do, the inflation will go back up and we will have higher rates for much longer.
Canada never recovered from the 1980/1981 recession.
I agree. I was there. However, I've bought and sold a couple houses until we were in a position to sell and pay off the leftover mortgage, then buy in Alberta and be mortgage free. This recession is causing our nest egg to dwindle. However we're still young enough to go to work if needed. Unfortunately we had to use some investment to finish paying off debt leftover. We'll be fine. People have not learned about managing money I feel, anyway. People need to live with less.
5% is peanuts it should be above thd inflation rate of 12% and no we are not different then the states when were tslking the federal rates
That's the reason the inverted yield curve never leads to a recession. Interest rates are too far below the actual inflation rate. Using the 1980's definition of inflation the inflation rate is still in double digits.
Its ridiculous that people cant handle a 5 percent rate. Maybe dont get a mortgage for practically nothing. It is a very large loan kinda selling ur soul TO THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY..
Boc must must keep rate up if the want house prices to come down .also Canada needs recession to fix housing affordability.
all you can think is about housing. with high interest rate will discourage builder to build that makes supply more shortage. so what would you think when residential supply get worse than it is now? and what landlords will do to deal with high interest rate pressure? "renting prices will shoot up maybe?
What part of 700,000 Canadian Mortgages(40% NEGAMS) renewing thru 2026 and ALL at far higher rates/payments than when initiated(not 0%), does Rosie not understand is going to have serious ramifications for our 65+% consumer 'spending' reliant GDP ????????
and
If you subtract the last 10 years of Mortgage/Consumer DEBT growth from Canadian GDP ?
we've already been is a recession for well over a decade anyways.... and just maintaining GDP with no more than DEBT under 0% rates !
which...
too much DEBT accumulation now for any return to the 0% rates in order to maintain GDP.... all it does is pull from currency valuations(debasement) as Inflation !
He likely isn't too worried and probably has 2 passports in Zionist Disneyland.
Broken clocks are right twice a day.
its a depression
Reducing interest rates is akin to adding fuel to the persistent fire of inflation. I often liken inflation to our blood pressure. The inflation, or blood pressure (BP), skyrocketed due to an unprecedented amount of money being printed (Quantitative Easing or QE). Then, the medication (higher interest rates and Quantitative Tightening or QT) managed to lower the BP (inflation to 2.7). We understand that our BP should ideally be 120/80, which equates to a 2 percent inflation rate. Now, picture this: the doctors (or so-called experts) are suggesting that it’s okay to start eating red meat again. We all know the consequence - the BP will inevitably rise (inflation will swiftly increase from 2.7 percent to 3 percent and higher..). The BOC is aware that it needs to maintain higher interest rates to stabilize the market, and then it needs to persistently keep the rates high (four hundred basis points) to ensure the economy’s well-being. BOC's message is very clear, it's the delusional low rate addicts who want more booze..
You sound a horrible doctor and lousy economist. Keep your day job
If rates stay up then new construction doesn't happen and inventory stays low and hence prices stay as is and or goes up. How do we choose between that and inflation?!?
Did you forget we're in a housing crisis?
Which market are you referencing and how is it more important than having a place to live?
@@johnnieblades Are you interested in purchasing a property in Canada? The real estate market is currently abundant with options. If you’re considering making a purchase, do let me know. The notion of a supply shortage is a misconception. Regardless of the amount of new construction, the demand cannot be satisfied unless measures are taken to address the BRRRRR, and HELOC investors.
@@johnnieblades do you think that people are idiots and don't understand your speculation?
If you're a retiree or a saver quantitative easing is better known as quantitative stealing. Stealing from the retirees and savers to give to the lowlifes who can't pay cash for anything and buy everything on credit.
Numbers highly manipulated?
The bank rates can only come down, maybe a quarter andI still think that the rates are still consider low. Why do you get inflation if the government prints money gives it to every single deadbeat out there. The problem with the government, they reward the people that don’t deserve to be rewarded.
Probably? We are way past a Recession and nearing a Depression. 50% of the country barelty makes it to the end of every month. 25% of the country only eats because food banks exists.
Poverty and homelessness are at crisis levels in every single province in the country. The rich need to get out of their ivory towers and see whats actually happening in this country because it's collpasing.
When the rich talk about the "economy" they mean Wall St and investments. Their economy is not our economy which is as I said is collapsing.
Canadian Bank rates will do little to control inflation, economy sinking due to lack of innovation, business, and rampant red tape. Housing is a hyper bubble, it will collapse.
With all the hard work to control inflation why drop rates now? BOC has not from my shopping list seen the end of inflation and lowering rates would be foolhardy. I hope Tiff holds tight and stands his ground, 5% seems to be doing its job.
I'm worried about how this will affect my portfolio if I don't plan well
Help me understand wtf is “probably already”
Of course
I at this
Point can’t plate my car and I
Was too broke to buy phone mins
And groceries is wild we have to put items back and I work full time.
Maybe tell that to the BoC.
Our Prime Minister says these are the best days of our great nation. Who do I believe? The PM never lies, isn't he?
100% in a recession, I know of a few union halls full of out of work men. They should be empty. Big builders have only brought back some crews. Home sales on new subdivisions dead. Truck prices coming down as are new truck financing costs. This will quickly accelerate across all of Canada.
We were on the brink in 2019…waiting waiting….
Probably? Yeah, we’re in a recession. Lost my job in January.
Look around and the economy is still doing okay, house prices remain high, stock market is doing okay, people are still planning to spend $ on summer vacation, you still have to wait for delivery when buying a new car (not including EV), unemployment is stable, government is still spending like a drunken sailor and have no plan to shrink its size. So Rosie what have you been smoking ? Where do you see recession ? Go to any Costco store and you will be convinced why most people are not seeing what you are talking about.
The fact is the true inflation rate is about twice as high as the Bank of Canada rate which means an expansion era not recessions. They can redefine the inflation rate but the people's bank accounts tell the true inflation rate not the stated rate by the Bank of Canada.
@@nickyfurlano8531 Its a depression dude no real growth
This is a profoundly naive comment
Canada can't cut the interest rate, unless the US does.
Our Dollar will be worth even less, and import prices go up farther.
Prices are still up. inflation has come down, but we are still paying much higher prices while the majority have not seen an equivalent increase in income. Trouble ahead.
There are much better business opportunities in the USA: inflation has hit Canada hard. Consumers don’t have much left over after paying rents mortgages and other high expenses. Taxes are horrific: With the bank of Canada cutting further, inflating prices higher and destroying the Canadian dollar it doesn’t make sense to stay here. The governments only objective is to keep house prices high as possible, at the expense of the rest of the economy.
Prepare for a 65 cent dollar.
His thesis on the huge influx of immigration seems incorrect. If a country of 35 million allows 1 million new immigrants, that will create more demand for local currency which is dis inflationary or deflationary effect. The inflation right now is coming from reckless government overspending.
Similarly, if we bring in 1 million immigrants and the unemployed rate goes up by 400K, that actually means that the economy grew by 600K working people, no? Meaning the economy expanded.
it didnt expand
This is most economically clueless comment I've seen in forever
@@zacatkinson3926 I suppose you're saying that the Law of Supply and Demand no longer applies? So what is it, genius?
@@philshyu5248 I work in currency trading and in finance for 15 years.I;ve worked with people that trade 150 million for their agriculture business.You have it all backwards. When you increase the population it increases inflation. Prices rise when you have constant stream and supply of money coming in.New arrivals is constant money coming in. If there is no constant supply of money coming in prices fall. You have it 100% reversed.
USA interest rates will dictate interests in Canada. Given trade with USA is 90% of our economy, comparing to EU interest rates is disingenuous.
So many books behind him on the ikea shelf but he probably didn't read any of them. what a fool
The host gives me that uncanny valley vibe.. is she a android?
Rates will not be cut because inflation is at target. They will only cut if there is a reason to cut rates.
If America keeps on telling the truth each month about the inflation rate, rates in Canada will never fall. The baloney spewed each month here in Canada doesn't even factor into the bond market anymore. One day the CPI and inflaiton rate comes out and the next day the 5 year government of Canada treasury bond yield shoots back up to what it was the day before the CPI and inflaiton report came out. Verified if you just look at the yields and the days.
It surprises me why everybody gets really worked up about recession and inflation data. Inflation has always existed, and people have been using investments to beat the inflation. The stock market return, for example, always beats inflation. I heard of someone who invested $121k last October, and has grown the portfolio by more than $400k. I need recommendations that can give me similar return.
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $124k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure. So I really don't blame people who panic.
True. I first came across investing in the market in 2019. Already stashed about $480k in savings then, and the free money from the Government was pouring in, increasing inflation rate. I just got an advisor and kept the money there, just because I didn't want to keep the value of the money depreciating in the bank. Tbh, it's the best investment decision I've made since then.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
Benevolence, this reference seems valid.. Just inputted her full name on my browser and found her site without sweat, 15 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate it
You cannot cut your way out of recession you've got to invest your way out of recession, the Conservative party are in the dark ages on policy they've got to think again. My primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about £170k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
A strategy to protect against inflation is through the U.S stock market, especially the S&P500 & various ETFs. Investors must know where to put their money and how to distribute it in order to protect it against inflation while still making a profit, especially during a recession.
The truth is that people are finally waking up to the fact that our systems are breaking down in thousands of different ways all around us. Personally, the financial market seems like the only way to go with my long-term horizon (accumulated about $557,000 in earnings since May 2021), but if you don't have that time luck, it's a tough market out there down almost nowhere feels safe!
I've known I've wanted to start investing for a few months but just haven't been brave enough to start due to the market so far since mid last year. I have 60k i want to transfer into an s&s isa but its hard to bite the bullet and do it. $557k is a huge milestone , Please whats your strategy ? i will love to have an insight.
I'm being aided by an advisor, i don’t have any special strategy. Amber Dawn Brummit is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
She appears to be a true authority in her profession with over two decades of experience. I looked her up on the internet and skimmed through her site, very professional. already sent her an inquiry hoping for a response soon.
I am based in Canada but invest mostly in the US markets. I am looking for financial advise and guidance as I want to be invested in the market but between work and family commitments there is simply little time. I have a portfolio of about $400K at the moment all in equities. Please let me know of you can help.
The market is volatile at this time, hence I will advice you get yourself a financial advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the share/etf you focus on.
Having an investment adviser is the best way to go about the stock market, especially if you don't really have time to focus on market trends, I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly and I made over $1.5M within two years I started investing
Having an investment advisr is the best way to go about the stock market, especially if you don't really have time to focus on market trends, I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly and I made over $500,000 within two years I started investing
Partnering with a financial advisor has transformed my approach to investing. Their expertise and personalized guidance have not only helped me navigate complex financial markets but also optimized my portfolio to achieve my long-term goals efficiently.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
Interesting! If i had that capital, i would have some flexibility. I would consider diversifying across different asset classes.
Absolutely. It's crucial to have a well-thought-out plan, especially considering the current state of the global economy.
I agree. Given the uncertainties, it might be wise to allocate a portion to safer options like bonds or fixed income securities.
But don't forget about growth potential. You'll want to balance safety with opportunities for higher returns, maybe through a mix of stocks and real estate.
The problem is that people don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging condition
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
I'd argue we'd been in a per capita recession for 10 years now.... We need HIGHER RATES! Not lower!!! We need a sharp correction! Lowering rates will bring inflation back up! The current rates are below-average if you look at the last 100 years of rates. The solution is to bring the prices down and for that we need higher rates for longer!
Boc ain't cutting anything till fall.
Oh Please cut rates. I do not make much money and am not very productive but need to get back to a normal economy where I can keep borrowing against my house each year to maintain my lifestyle.🤣
Self inflicted damage
Interest rates will be satying higher long term thats what macklem said. Thank god too maybe finally mortgages will be expensive enough to bring down prices.
I know what Rosie is going to say before he starts moving his lips. Talking his own book.
If BOC cuts too soon, inflation is going up again. Better start spending your CAD before it goes to $0.50
This guy's been saying Canada is in a recession since the very day he was born.
He predicted the housing bubble will burst than what happen.. nothing lol
Overbids on everything in all the Chinese cities in Canada all year long this year. Prices will only go a lot higher.
@stephen "...will burst[.] than [Then] what happen [happened?]" Than is for comparison. Then is for sequence of events. Ellipsis is 3 dots. Example: Worse than what? Figure it out, then tell me!
Sometimes I’m amazed at how stupid journalists and their supposed “experts” are.
I agree 100%.That guy has no idea of what's going on.
Trudeau and Freeland told us Canadian economy is the best ever.
be nice if they slapped a carbon tax on how much gaslighting they do.
They bankrupt a country, and want to remain in power.
I highly doubt that Bank of Canada will cut interest rates without following the FEDS. Cutting interests will devalue the Canadian dollar. That will again lead to inflation because imports are priced in the US dollar.
Turn out the lights the party is over !!! Hard times ahead any way you slice it.
Too much debt !!!
😊😊😊😊❤❤❤🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦
Why do many of us, suffering and in long-time dire straits in the western world, have to stick it out and wait around *yet another* 8 months for hope, change, and improvement? ...esp. here in the U.S.
With rate cuts expected by B of C, the Canadian dollar is about to crash against the US dollar. Sell your Canadian dollars while you can, before they cut, and you end up with Pesos.
It's the same as what happened with Pierre Sr. The rates have to come down. They won't have a choice. Carbon taxes are causing it. People need to get out if debt now.
Interest should always be above inflation and always have a 8 percent like we used to have wouldn't be in this mess
Stfu on rate cuts!
Maybe tell that to the BoC.
The only way to control inflation is by eliminating income fraud in Canindia
I work in a hardware store in Southern Ontario and sales are BOOMING. There is no slowdown in the economy from where I stand. However, even though our crew are being worked to the bone from a flood of customers, the store won't hire any extra staff even though it is clear that we are short-staffed as it is.
Will 2025 election be a year of big changes to the federal financial management & debt crisis ? Will a new government, for example , be a positive outcome for people with high interest debts ? What would a better federal government do to achieve a better financial Canada?
How about not going to war against the oil and gas industry for starters ? After all ENERGY is our economy. Without it, we wither and die as a nation. Of course this is something the Liberals are dead set against. Hopefully Pierre will open up the spigots and Canada can export our energy again. That is just to start. Lots more polices that will be reversed by a Conservative majority. Here's hoping. Without it Canada is DONE.
By 2030, nobody will own anything, and be happy.
No
Yep, it a musk's ship in the brain to send you signals of happiness while you live in misery. AI.
Speak for yourself 🤓 🖕
Agree 100%, when the per capita GDP has been contracting at such an astonishing rate, the economy is clearly sick and the BOC is way past the point at which they should be lowering rates.