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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 พ.ค. 2024
- This interview with John Mearsheimer was conducted in 2020 on the original Manifold podcast with Corey Washington and Steve Hsu. Parts of the conversation are prescient with respect to US-China relations and the situation in Ukraine.
John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation.
Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system. In accordance with his theory, Mearsheimer believes that China's growing power will likely bring it into conflict with the United States.
Steve, Corey, and John discuss:
0:00 A quick message for listeners
1:21 Introduction
2:39 Realist foreign policy worldview
15:46 Proxy conflicts and the U.S.
21:31 U.S. history: a moral hegemon, or just a hegemon? Zinn and Chomsky
29:50 U.S.-China relationship, competing hegemonies?
36:44 Will Europe become more united?
41:23 China’s ambitions
46:12 Europe’s fragmentation and population trends
47:57 What drove U.S. interventions after the Cold War?
51:36 Coalitions and U.S.-China competition
Resources:
John Mearsheimer - www.mearsheimer.com/
The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities - www.amazon.com/Great-Delusion...
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter at / hsu_steve . - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
Chinese people inherently love peace which has been reflected by the fact that China has not fired a bullet over the past 30 years against any other nation while it had risen together with the majority of countries in Asia. If you really understand the Chinese culture, you will realize that that majority of Chinese have been influenced by the lessons from the Confucius over the past two thousand years. But, let us not argue about the boring cultural things. Instead, let us talk about the few points related to our life experience.
Sports: Historically, the fights between gladiators in ancient Rome as an entertainment were brutal, cruel and inhumane. The aggressive western culture is fully revealed from the deadly sports. Yes, westerners would like to watch others fight to death. Today, American people love football game. It is much better than the fight-to-death entertainment between the gladiators. But, it is still very aggressive. This aggressiveness also revealed itself on the foreign policy especially when it is demanded by the military-industrial complex. No wonder America has been invading many nations as it sees fit without the approval of the United Nation. Naturally, America does not like the rules based upon the United Nation. On the other hand, Chinese people did not like barbarian sports from ancient time. Today, soccer, basketball, and ping-pong are the most popular sports in China. This indicates that most Chinese people are not aggressive in nature. And, this gentle nature combined with the painful memories it had from the aggressive nations from the west taught the Chinese government how to deal with many developing nations with respect. The goal is always win-win instead of the live-and-enslave western mentality. Chinese Navy will not provocatively roam into the east Pacific Ocean 100 miles within California. And, China has adopted the no-first-use of nuclear weapons policy. China will not be a threat to any nation in the world.
Religion: In China, about 15% of the Chinese people are Buddhists while 10% are Taoist. These two religions do not belong to the category of Monotheism which worships a single god. The religious persecution that drove settlers from Europe to the American colonies showed that the Monotheists could be non-flexible. In fact, some countries used religion to solidify political power and punish opponents. In China’s history, there was no dominant religion and thus, religion had not been the primary reason used to initiate Holy War/Crusades against other nations. Chinese people do not have a strong ideology. They will not interfere with other nation’s internal affair. Most of the Chinese people just want to become a little richer and a little safer. They don’t play God like the USA do.
Race: The majority of the people in China are Hans. The great warriors of Genghis Khan’s soldiers who invaded Europe were Mongolians. From time to time, they and the other ethnic minorities around China posed great threats to the Han Chinese kingdoms. In most cases, the Hans were just playing defense. Playing defense seems to be the norm of the Chinese policy until 2016 when Trump took over. Nowadays, Chinese people had enough of it. They are forced to respond except towards the USA sometimes because China is forever grateful to the USA for ending Japan’s inhumane aggression towards China in WWII (www.japantimes.co.jp/culture/2013/08/24/books/book-reviews/chinas-contribution-to-japans-defeat/). Chinese people would be willing to put the tragedy behind as long as Japan truly repents what they had done.
Neighborhood relationship: China has treated its neighbors well as reflected by the coherent rise of almost all Asian nations. There were some minor conflicts between China and India in 2019/2020. But, to the disappointment of some western nations, nothing serious really happened because of the agreement signed by the two nations that prohibited the use of modern weapons. That shows the gentle and restraint nature of both nations. And, Indians are way too smart to fight a proxy war against China for USA. They might be glad to see USA and China fight so that they can be #1 in the world.
Taiwan - In case you don’t know, China and Taiwan developed very friendly relationship from 2008 to 2016 based upon the agreement of 1992 Consensus. In 2017, the pro-Taiwan-independent party, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), tore up the agreement after winning the election by spreading lies and hatred about China. It is very similar to what Ukraine did before the Russia invasion. The DPP party started cutting all official ties with China even as Taiwan enjoyed a huge trade surplus which was about $105 billion in 2021 with China. So, the USA just exploited the opportunity to promote the fear and hatred while getting Taiwan to use the surplus to buy huge amount of weapons from the US defense companies. Most experts believe that China will exercise great restraint to avoid a conflict with USA before 2030 unless Taiwan declares independence. Letting Taiwan slip away from China is like letting Texas to be independent from the USA. So, no one should ever doubt China’s resolution to use the necessary means just like the American did in the Civil War. Chinese PLA will fight all the way against any foreign powers to gain control of Taiwan without giving any regards to the possible casualty in military personnel just like what happened in the Korean war. Is USA ready to make such sacrifice for interfering with China’s internal affair? Please note that today’s PLA is not the Chinese volunteer fighters in the Korean war. There is no chance that USA can win the war against China over Taiwan. If USA is to attack China with nuclear weapons, both China and Russia will respond and the whole world would be doomed. I think the Chief of Staff will fight any crazy president with self interest to initiate such attack because he knows that fighting PLA over Taiwan is not USA’s core interest yet it might destroy 30% of his navy or even his nation.
Conclusion: China has no intention to treat any nation as enemy and China is not a threat to any nation. Instead, China would be willing to corporate with any nation as long as that nation shows the basic respect and stays away from interfering with China’s internal affairs. If you are still not convinced about the gentle nature of Chinese people, think this way. It could have been great for the world and for the USA to have China at the other end of the bipolar world power as a balance. In fact, some nations in the world are only aligning with USA on the surface to avoid being bullied. Deep inside, they know that USA is the bully and just try to contain China to hang on to its unipolar power. The only exception may be Japan which acts as the watchdog for USA. But, even Japan might resist if America were to order them to attack China/Russia in a proxy war. In the meantime, don’t expect Taiwan (or Republic of China) to fight the proxy war to the last Taiwanese for USA. They observed what the US was doing to Ukraine and they don’t want to become another Ukraine. In fact, about 60% of Taiwanese now believe that USA is not going to send soldiers to fight PLA and die for Taiwanese just like the Taiwanese don’t want to die for the American Unipolar power. Ultimately, USA has to face directly and alone against China/Russia or the USA has to accept the United Nation based rule system instead of the rule-based system devised by USA. This bi-polar world power system could benefit USA and the world tremendously. In fact, had it truly been honored after the year 2000, USA might have avoided many futile wars that were hurting other nations as well as itself. USA could have saved $10T (including the war in Ukraine, www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar) not to mention the lives that can be spared. If it were indeed so, God would have been truly pleased with USA.
China has no intention becoming a hegemon like the USA. USA has been trying to contain China before the year 2000. But, the wars in Middle East and the 2008 financial crisis prevented Bush/Clinton/Obama from doing so. It is too late for USA to contain China militarily in the first island chain now. No nations in the sound minds other than Japan and perhaps Australia would blindly align with USA on containing China militarily there. Let China rise peacefully and I assure you that the two great nations and the world will enjoy many years of peace and prosperity.
Tibet, Manchuria, North Korea, Vietnam, Laos.
The Cultural Revolution was mass murder. I wonder what Confucius would have made of that.
Buddhism and Taoism are philosophies, not religions.
Thank you for taking the time to write the comment.
What a waste of professor's time. I mostly heard what interviewers think about certain topics and then John's just a little bit. He wasn't even given an opportunity to lay out his vis theory in details and interpretation of facts according to the theory of what's going on in the world right now. terrible job of interviewers
Yes that is the dilemma of such interviews … they just don’t give enough time to the guest to speak up his mind fully
was listening on spotify and came to youtube just to say this haha
come on guys... especially the part about whether economic competition with China could bolster European solidarity/integration. John already said he doesn't think it will happen because Chinese economic dominance isn't a direct security threat against Europe. But then the interviewers elaborated their thoughts for a significant chunk of time only to ask John what he thinks... "As I said earlier..."
And the Chomsky question... bruh.
@@rexmotor yeah
Thanks very much to indicate the date of the interview.
Why no reponse to this request?
It appeared "far-fetched" in 2020 that China and Russia would align themselves together, and even more so that Europe would act as a tool of US policy so directly. But here were are, just 2 years later.
Not realyy, it is the purpose of PNAC
@@danielvertino8126 They share a massive border and the Chinese steal their land. lol
Excellent insight.
A major flaw of human thinking is the inclination to extrapolate the past. With all due respect Professor Mearshimmer is assuming that Russia's interest should naturally be aligned with the West against China. He overlooks the simple fact that South East Asia is of great strategic importance to Russia as it is to the West so why would the Russians become a pin in China's neck for the sole reason that it is a West's wish?
@@kolabola7200 Because they share a massive fuckign land border. Holy shit
Thanks for the content
Interviewers seem to insist China is in some way in opposition to Europe, europeans dont have a huge conquered territory to defend in the pacific and there are tremendous benefits from trading with such an industrial powerhouse, doesn't seem like a very intelligent thing for us to do to start defending US interests in the region when there are plenty of local problems
China is Russia's main ally. Russia opposes the current European system. Therefore, China opposes Europe.
@@kreek22 How does Russia oppose the current european system? China doesn't do Russias bidding so even if you are correct I dont see how its relevant, Russia is clearly the junior partner in their alliance and China most likely wants and needs to trade with europeans, China doesn't even recognize Crimea as part of Russia
John is a real and objective patriot to his country. If only the American elites government is this level, the world would be a much better place.
nukes
It will help the world a whole lot if smart people like you worries about your own country more than worrying about China. It's astonishing how Americans are obssessed with China.
Because America is a psychopathic Narcissist nation with extreme insecurity, who worries about how other advances instead of advancing and bettering itself.
46:34 *_”Europe is in deep trouble and the principal reason I believe is Demographic.”_*
100%
The demographic decline is a symptom of spiritual decline.
Too many Islamic people in Europe. They don’t share the same values as the islamists.
Absolutely, its weird to me also that they said it would take 50 years to have Obama in Europe, why would we want an Obama in the first place?`Multiculturalism clearly doesn't work for the US or atleast causes enormous problems, I dont think anybody honest would deny that
@@arijao92 When they say ‘Multiculturalism’ what they actually mean is *Multiracialism.* There’s been Multiculturalism in Europe for millennia.
@@jewelcitizen2567 Well yes and that is also what I meant by multiculturalism, I would say european cultures in their core are quite similar, even though there are ofcourse regional differences all those cultures come from the same ancient source of Greece and Rome, foundational pillars of western civilization, bringing in massive numbers of people from outside of that seems to me to be a very short sighted thing to do especially when looking at the domestic situation in the US, its rather obvious to me that it causes more problems than grants benefits
ASEAN has NO problem with China as they have been good neighbors for centuries now. They are also each other biggest trading partners. China do not use weapons to threaten like US.
People in Tibet agree
@@tylerjaynes5123 ignorant people like you don’t even bother look at the map, Tibet is a province of China, period. We Chinese really don’t get a clue what is the point fools like you always blah blah about Tibet for what. Find some thing to do, for instance read a map.
@@tylerjaynes5123 Tibet, PRC.
@@tylerjaynes5123 people all over the world hate Us
That is verifiably false.
I find prof. Mearsheimer always insightful. But one thing i think he gets wrong in predicting military conflict between the US and China is in what kind of hegemony China aims at. China will not go to tell other countries how to run their country, will not reign by its valeues like the US does. Instead, by becoming the preeminent power in Asia, it wants nobody (and certainly not the US) will threaten china's pursuit of sovereignty over taiwan, and the free circulation on its trade routes incl. The straight of Malacca etc. Whether this nevertheless will provoke the US to go to war is not certain, i think.
This interviewer loves to hear himself. A good interviewer lets his guest speak. That’s what we’re here for.
The facts of nuclear weapons and of impending climate catastrophe that threaten the continuation of civilized live tells us that structural realism, which induces great power competition (including military) and which distracts us from dealing with climate needs what it lacks: authority. From where is such authority to come? It must come from what I would call "moral realism". World leaders must recognize that great power competition is hardly likely to result in a world hegemon, but more likely to produce the final war. Only a common commitment among all great powers and other states to a rule of law can avoid destruction for all.
If you read his book, "The tragedy of Great Power Politics" he wrote that Offensive Realism is not a theory nations adopt and implement. It is a descriptive theory. What do you mean by "authority" in moral realism? Is it central and disconnected from other nations? Does it have teeth for violators?
把收回争议领土说成对领土有野心，把遏制中国发展说成遏制地区领导，明目张胆说要全世界霸权，这真是很exceptionlism of America.想想我在美国的同学们真是天分差学历差但很努力，中国精英阶层现在不够努力，这才是最大问题
we are in something much deeper.There is a complete restructuring to a multi-polar world.The US UK understand this but continental Europe does not😢😢The question is WHAT TYPE OF MULTIPOLAR SYSTEM 😅😅
The effective interviewer is to speak less.
De facto governments
No one wants to take orders from others. USA has been a "benevolent hegemony". The recent international problems are in some way USA has been depleting its kitty to the point that the ability to write cheques is much reduced, then other countries no longer find it attractive to listen.
US seems now choose reactive actuations to worldly troubled situations instead of itself initiating being directly involved : US reacted to China's unilateral UN- invalidated grab of the entire almost all of South China Sea, by freely sailing across it enforcing the UN Arbitral court decision and when asked, is helping Asian nations protect its UN UNCLOS- protected EEZ ,& it reacted, as member of NATO, to Russian Ukrainne invasion.
Actually, it’s the truth
Ukraine war happened because USA 1000% do not want EU + RU to be a thing. USA would rather have EU be gutted and RU + CN. Goal has been achieved.
The best if US is willingly invitIng Russia helping US to lead NATO, rather than pushing Ukraine etc to join NATO.
So this conversation took place before Covid-19 and the Russian special operation in Ukraine. John this format with other yak--yakers is not desirable.
This is really funny listening to how John thought before Ukrain conflict made him wrong. And now he gives interviews saying Russia is going to lose when That is not what is happening at all. He really seems frazzled by being wrong thinking USA and Europe did not care about Russia.
He wasn’t wrong though, he was spot on. He never said that the US doesn’t care about Russia - he said that Americans aren’t willing to die for Ukraine and that America (especially the democrats) are driving Russia into the arms of China. This is exactly what has happened.
I still think he's right about Europe not caring about Russia until Russia attacked Ukraine. Trump made that speech about Europeans getting off of Russian oil because of security concerns and they laughed in his face. Does that sound like people who take Russia seriously as a threat? Also, can you post a link to where he says Russia is going to lose? I must have missed that one because it doesn't exist
Please provide a quote where Mearsheimer has said that Russia is going to lose.
The best if US is willingly inviting Russia helping US to lead NATO, rather than pushing Ukraine etc to join NATO. So that Europe will be united & in peace. Very simple. But why US has not done this?
Lack of wisdom?
Nah, that will lead to a European peer competitor in the future. The USA will never tolerate that.
Not going to happen. US like to impose their influence in Europe, Russia is a threat to that.
Mearsheimer is realistic about how gringoland acts ruthlessly and roguishly in its foreign activities but at the same time has the motive to spread democracy rather than to further its economic interest? This fellow is quite unrealistic about the motivation.
India 🇮🇳 has very young people that will overtake every country by 2060 in terms of wealth, technology and military.
Poo
US is an empire .all big countries are empires.nothing wrong . always been😅😊
The gentlemen discussing Europe with Mr.Mearsheimer are woefully ill informed on the subject (as Mr. Mearsheimer clearly reveals, on multiple occasions).
Hsu and Washington have different views on Europe. Hsu is close to Mearsheimer.
I love the way TH-cam allows people to make broad, sweeping statements, completely bereft of evidence or argumentation...
Not one mention of climate change and how economies have caused this problem.
The final couple of minutes of the interview it's the moment for the interviewers to get racist AF about immigration and the 'quality of immigrants' regarding their education.
How is it racist to talk about the educational attainment of prospective immigrants? You might disagree with the point being made, but to label it "racist" is a category error.
the idea seems very flaw
This is one of the worst interviews ever. It is basically John Mearsheimer speaking to two deaf children.