A quick update from TTM... We really do appreciate all the positive feedback and some of the negative....If comments are missing maybe the user themselves have removed their own comments. At the time of writing this comment I have personally removed one person from the channel/comments section, you are all free to comment as you wish with negativity if that is your preference and the comment will stay for all to see but excessive trolling and constantly slagging us off across multiple comments is just uncalled for, helps nobody and will be removed. Kind regards TTM .
Another interesting post, thank you. I just dont get why people are complaining. Its not like we are paying you £50 a month for the data, its free. Do what i did and paper trade it for a month or too, that will soon tell you if its going to work or not. Personally this strat has really helped me and i love it. Please do continue to educate and guide us all on this O4.5 journey. Im so looking forward to the 24/25 European season. I do subscribe to Sports IQ but its a very low cost which i think is worth it particularly for the backtest feature. I hope i dont wear it out. Rest in peace BF Trading !!!
Good video and nice to see some more granularity. However you have an error on the quoted ROI. The risk (liability) per trade is £65 in your example, not the £10 stake you win (before commission) on a successful trade. ROI is the total profit achieved for the total capital risked. For 649 trades the total capital risked is £42,185 for a total profit (before commission) of £2,590. This is an ROI of 6.14% (not 39.91%). Assuming a 2% commission the profit is £2,471 (5.86% ROI) and for a 5% commission the profit is £2,292 (5.43% ROI). Don’t get me wrong, 5% ROI is actually very decent over the long-term. The trick here is to maintain a very high win rate as a slight drop equates to meaningfully negative EV and some trades will be north of 7.5 in odds (towards 10) which might lower the achievable strike rate and profit margin at the margins. Still a credible strategy in my opinion if you can stomach higher liabilities.
Good to see someone else understands the difference between Stakes [Back] & Liability [Lay] when it comes to working out RoI. Whereas TTM mean well, I'm afraid they are not as clued up as they would like to think. Stopped using their Discord Grp because of a few peoples egos, & basic errors such as this. Still, they do have some good ideas which I have adapted into profitable strategies, so can't complain.
Yup - I agree. Also, he hasn't included commision from the calculation. In the UK it's 2%, in other countries it's more. Still, any system that delivers 5%+ ROI with a very high strike rate is a good system. Unfortunately, it kind of make me question the reliability of this as a pro wouldn't make that mistake.
In the original video, no exit strategy was discussed as it was regarded as a set & forget. Are there any plans for further videos to discuss this? I lost one trade on this strategy in a match where it was 0-0 @ half time & 5 goals were scored in the 3nd half, so probably would have been better for me to trade out on this one?
It all comes down to the individual. It is a set and forget and that is exactly how I use it... Billy on the other hand has added the exit of 1.04 for his own trading... Very much each to their own fella. The choice is entirely yours.
Hi, is there a max or minimum odds you lay at? Also I noticed you have a pre match odds filter on the back testing page, I don’t seem to have that on mine. Cheers Craig
The reason I used odds of 7.5 and above is because in the original video my average odds across 201 trades were 7.8. The odds filter will come to Sports-IQ soon I believe, I couldn't give a specific date because I honestly don't know the answer but you will be able to test it for yourself soon enough 👍
Sorry to see the discord server go down. I'll miss chatting to everyone. Will the General thread be available to view again? It's saying I don't have permission to view the message history of # general. Thanks.
@@TradingTheMarket And how much trading talk is there in Getting Sh1t Off Your Chest, which I've just noticed is still open for reading? And if I recall correctly, General did have a lot of very useful, very relevant trading-related talk in it, it wasn't all non-trading chit-chat. With the Sh1t channel still open and readable, hiding General now makes no sense at all. So please, could you open General for reading again? Pretty please with sugar on top? 🙂
Aaaaand it's gone. 🙂 I know I'm probably being silly, but all this hidey-hidey, blocky-blocky of the General channel makes me wonder what's in there they don't want us to see...
I have tried this strategy for a couple of weeks and it isn't going well at all. In the 12 matches I have traded on, 4 games have ended over 4.5, with 2 of the games having 6 goals and the other two having 5. Either I am being extremely unlucky, or I am doing something wrong. The stats I based placing the losing bets on followed by the number of goals in the match are shown below. (AvD = 1, MN = 16.5, gls = 6), (AvD = 0, MN = 11, gls = 5), (AvD = -1, MN = -7.5, gls = 6), (AvD = -2, MN = -9, gls = 5). Would you be able to advise if there are any any flaws in the matches selected based on the values above?
Can you tell me which matches you lost on? I do believe some of the matches are matches I also traded. The strategy will always have variance... Unfortunately, we can not make money on every selection buddy.
@@TradingTheMarket Hi James, Appreciate you responding on a football evening! My lost matches were Orlando City v Chicago Fire (4-2), Friska Viljor FC v Taby FK (4-1), Zamalek vs Ceramica Cleopatra (4-2), Binh Dinh v Công An Nhân Dân (4-1) and I just lost another tonight - ÍB Vestmannaeyja Keflavik IF AvD Rel = -1, Magic # = -7.5 (5-0 - 2 goals in injury time). I get the stats from the Daily Sheet. I appreciate that nothing is certain, but my hit rate (won 9 lost 5) is abysmal compared to yours, so maybe I'm misinterpreting something.
The criteria you are using is correct.. Like I say variance will always play a part in any strategy... some people will start trading it and win 100 in a row and others like yourself will start and lose 5 it's the nature of the beast I'm afraid. The best advice I can give you is to paper trade as many selections as you can until you are comfortable with the strategy/criteria/selections 👍
@@TradingTheMarket Sorry to trouble you again, but do you have a link to the Daily Sheet downloads? The link I had before only points to the June ones and I find the one on the website a bit difficult to manage. Cheers.
It's completely free pal. Check out the channel there are now multiple videos showing how to use it... You can use our free spreadsheet or Sports-IQ for ease of use 👍🏻
I still occasionally look in on the discord server in the vain hope they've opened General to viewing so we read how two years of fun all came to an end.... 😞 I get how there was not much actual trading talk in there, but it was still fun to read and I'm still pissed off with myself for missing the last few hours of it. Sadly, I don't think it'll come back because of all the hassle the admin got from running it. I think they're enjoying having their lives back, and don't miss the grief one bit. The unnecessary shit they got from the 4.5 was the last straw for them, and I don't blame them for closing it. Enough was enough.
Hi mate, copy and paste this code into the strategies page at the top where it says import strategy. Lay Over 4.5 Goals - i1bySaxU8C9LLVIw0TNV0lGKjo5RSs9PzCmOL0hWTi9QTixLj1HSiVEyAJMWMUqxOkAVaflFucoZZYlwaWMwaYIsDTIlPjUlPRWuyAhMGgKNio0FWqUUCwA
@@sundaybighouse If he was using Gurubusters as his user name then that would be a give away. But as you say he was probably using another user name in which case how would they know he is Gurubusters? Maybe they know him personally but don't want to identify him. I noticed in the video that they did mention someone by name, this could be Gurubusters real name, I don't know? Thanks for your reply. 😀👍
@@TradingTheMarket Really - Wow!. I've watched his channel and I don't think you are scammers by the way. He analyses strategies to the nth degree, he takes the fun out of betting. If we were to believe what he says, then we might as well stop betting, no point. But we know if we are getting value with are bets / trades then there will be a profit at the end of it. Thanks for your reply much appreciated. Keep up the good work! 😀👍
@@TradingTheMarket well the decision to end the discord in favor of a TH-cam community? Seems pretty quiet if you ask me. I guess only paid Sports-IQ users can engage now via Discord, of which I am no longer one. Good luck as and when the sleeping giant awakens
I watched the latest video from Gurubuster criticising you. The guy seems very closed minded. In his eyes, if you obtain yields greater than 1-2%, you are full of BS. With this definition I must be full of BS too as my set and forget strategies return far better yields than his golden standard. Carry on making your videos, ignore the guy.
Gurubusters video called you out on the nonsense, yet you still persist with this awful 'strategy', I lost a lot of money on it before I was clever enough to see the light.
you comment the same shite on our videos, yet you dont answer when questioned why your failing, dont play the victim when your the problem not us, victims will always be victims
Close Down??? 😂 Turning off a chat function is seen as closing down??? 😝 I have never seen as many conspiracy theories come from all of your mouths...it truly is hilarious the things you guys say over there, proper makes me chuckle. If it helps you sleep at night... happy days.
Solid video. Strange you get grief for giving away info for free that nobody is forced to follow. What I would say is laying isn't for everyone, especially at higher odds. Requires a certain mindset and something I dont cope with anyway! For those looking for an edge its reasonably straight forward. If your average odds you are laying at is 7.5 that equates to a probability of 13.3%. You *could* look at historic data across leagues and find leagues where O4.5 happens less than 13.3% of the time. So doing this with last 3 seasons data, as an example you get 11.23% matches O4.5 in Championship, 11.78% in League 1, 10.92% in Serie A, 10.12% in Serie B etc. etc. Just need to pull data from football-data, or use sports IQ. Of course still need to forward test as well.
Many thanks once again, I have made the strategy work for small stakes and I’m a thick Brummie 😂 keep up the good work gents, ignore the c u next Tuesdays and thanks again 👍👍
A quick update from TTM... We really do appreciate all the positive feedback and some of the negative....If comments are missing maybe the user themselves have removed their own comments.
At the time of writing this comment I have personally removed one person from the channel/comments section, you are all free to comment as you wish with negativity if that is your preference and the comment will stay for all to see but excessive trolling and constantly slagging us off across multiple comments is just uncalled for, helps nobody and will be removed.
Kind regards TTM .
Another interesting post, thank you. I just dont get why people are complaining. Its not like we are paying you £50 a month for the data, its free. Do what i did and paper trade it for a month or too, that will soon tell you if its going to work or not. Personally this strat has really helped me and i love it. Please do continue to educate and guide us all on this O4.5 journey. Im so looking forward to the 24/25 European season. I do subscribe to Sports IQ but its a very low cost which i think is worth it particularly for the backtest feature. I hope i dont wear it out. Rest in peace BF Trading !!!
Good video and nice to see some more granularity. However you have an error on the quoted ROI. The risk (liability) per trade is £65 in your example, not the £10 stake you win (before commission) on a successful trade. ROI is the total profit achieved for the total capital risked. For 649 trades the total capital risked is £42,185 for a total profit (before commission) of £2,590. This is an ROI of 6.14% (not 39.91%). Assuming a 2% commission the profit is £2,471 (5.86% ROI) and for a 5% commission the profit is £2,292 (5.43% ROI). Don’t get me wrong, 5% ROI is actually very decent over the long-term. The trick here is to maintain a very high win rate as a slight drop equates to meaningfully negative EV and some trades will be north of 7.5 in odds (towards 10) which might lower the achievable strike rate and profit margin at the margins. Still a credible strategy in my opinion if you can stomach higher liabilities.
Good to see someone else understands the difference between Stakes [Back] & Liability [Lay] when it comes to working out RoI. Whereas TTM mean well, I'm afraid they are not as clued up as they would like to think. Stopped using their Discord Grp because of a few peoples egos, & basic errors such as this. Still, they do have some good ideas which I have adapted into profitable strategies, so can't complain.
100% mate.
At least you now know the reason behind the ROI 😉
Correct me if I’m wrong but when you calculate the ROI, shouldn’t the stake be £65 rather than the £10 you quote?
This would give an ROI of 6.15%
Yup - I agree. Also, he hasn't included commision from the calculation. In the UK it's 2%, in other countries it's more. Still, any system that delivers 5%+ ROI with a very high strike rate is a good system. Unfortunately, it kind of make me question the reliability of this as a pro wouldn't make that mistake.
@@betman6774 "it kind of make me question the reliability of this as a pro wouldn't make that mistake" ... Couldn't have put it better myself.
It wasn't a mistake...
Very much intentional for a certain somebody and for this very reason 😉
@@TradingTheMarket sounds serious
In the original video, no exit strategy was discussed as it was regarded as a set & forget. Are there any plans for further videos to discuss this? I lost one trade on this strategy in a match where it was 0-0 @ half time & 5 goals were scored in the 3nd half, so probably would have been better for me to trade out on this one?
It all comes down to the individual.
It is a set and forget and that is exactly how I use it...
Billy on the other hand has added the exit of 1.04 for his own trading... Very much each to their own fella.
The choice is entirely yours.
Hi, is there a max or minimum odds you lay at?
Also I noticed you have a pre match odds filter on the back testing page, I don’t seem to have that on mine.
Cheers Craig
Max odds of 12 personally.
The pre match odds filter is currently in the beta phase.
It will be going live shortly 👍
are you laying 7.5 and above now after back testing ?
do odds between 6 and 7 give a lower strike rate?
The reason I used odds of 7.5 and above is because in the original video my average odds across 201 trades were 7.8.
The odds filter will come to Sports-IQ soon I believe, I couldn't give a specific date because I honestly don't know the answer but you will be able to test it for yourself soon enough 👍
Am i using Sports IQ backtest wrong? I get 427 filtered, 406 success, 21 fail with the same selections and removing the odds filter
I have Goalsense
Sorry to see the discord server go down. I'll miss chatting to everyone.
Will the General thread be available to view again? It's saying I don't have permission to view the message history of # general. Thanks.
There is so much none trading talk in there it's not worth leaving open to view in all honesty.
@@TradingTheMarket And how much trading talk is there in Getting Sh1t Off Your Chest, which I've just noticed is still open for reading?
And if I recall correctly, General did have a lot of very useful, very relevant trading-related talk in it, it wasn't all non-trading chit-chat.
With the Sh1t channel still open and readable, hiding General now makes no sense at all. So please, could you open General for reading again? Pretty please with sugar on top? 🙂
Aaaaand it's gone. 🙂
I know I'm probably being silly, but all this hidey-hidey, blocky-blocky of the General channel makes me wonder what's in there they don't want us to see...
Awesome, guys. Keep up the great work 😎
Always 💪🏻
I have tried this strategy for a couple of weeks and it isn't going well at all. In the 12 matches I have traded on, 4 games have ended over 4.5, with 2 of the games having 6 goals and the other two having 5. Either I am being extremely unlucky, or I am doing something wrong. The stats I based placing the losing bets on followed by the number of goals in the match are shown below.
(AvD = 1, MN = 16.5, gls = 6), (AvD = 0, MN = 11, gls = 5), (AvD = -1, MN = -7.5, gls = 6), (AvD = -2, MN = -9, gls = 5). Would you be able to advise if there are any any flaws in the matches selected based on the values above?
Can you tell me which matches you lost on? I do believe some of the matches are matches I also traded.
The strategy will always have variance...
Unfortunately, we can not make money on every selection buddy.
@@TradingTheMarket Hi James,
Appreciate you responding on a football evening! My lost matches were Orlando City v Chicago Fire (4-2), Friska Viljor FC v Taby FK (4-1), Zamalek vs Ceramica Cleopatra (4-2), Binh Dinh v Công An Nhân Dân (4-1) and I just lost another tonight - ÍB Vestmannaeyja Keflavik IF AvD Rel = -1, Magic # = -7.5 (5-0 - 2 goals in injury time). I get the stats from the Daily Sheet. I appreciate that nothing is certain, but my hit rate (won 9 lost 5) is abysmal compared to yours, so maybe I'm misinterpreting something.
The criteria you are using is correct.. Like I say variance will always play a part in any strategy... some people will start trading it and win 100 in a row and others like yourself will start and lose 5 it's the nature of the beast I'm afraid.
The best advice I can give you is to paper trade as many selections as you can until you are comfortable with the strategy/criteria/selections 👍
@@TradingTheMarket Sorry to trouble you again, but do you have a link to the Daily Sheet downloads? The link I had before only points to the June ones and I find the one on the website a bit difficult to manage. Cheers.
drive.google.com/drive/folders/1rzPyFuUJtw-NWE0oJw25B36Aof9FAe8m
Well done and many thanks again. If I wanted to use this Lay 4.5 method or find it and how much does it cost me?
It's completely free pal.
Check out the channel there are now multiple videos showing how to use it...
You can use our free spreadsheet or Sports-IQ for ease of use 👍🏻
Great video guys. Keep up the excellent work. Nobody produces trading videos like TTM do
More to come! 💪🏻
Great video as always James.
Appreciate it mucker 👊🏻
I still occasionally look in on the discord server in the vain hope they've opened General to viewing so we read how two years of fun all came to an end.... 😞
I get how there was not much actual trading talk in there, but it was still fun to read and I'm still pissed off with myself for missing the last few hours of it.
Sadly, I don't think it'll come back because of all the hassle the admin got from running it. I think they're enjoying having their lives back, and don't miss the grief one bit. The unnecessary shit they got from the 4.5 was the last straw for them, and I don't blame them for closing it. Enough was enough.
Agreed, I enjoyed the general chat
Great use of stock videos
Billy, how many trades have you made on this strat?
over 500, i started doing it with the loose criteria which provided alot more picks
Hey love your videos, just joined Sport IQ, how do you find this strategy in Sports IQ please?
Hi mate, copy and paste this code into the strategies page at the top where it says import strategy.
Lay Over 4.5 Goals -
i1bySaxU8C9LLVIw0TNV0lGKjo5RSs9PzCmOL0hWTi9QTixLj1HSiVEyAJMWMUqxOkAVaflFucoZZYlwaWMwaYIsDTIlPjUlPRWuyAhMGgKNio0FWqUUCwA
Cheers TTM. Let's have a IPA. Investigate (with) Paper (and) Adjust.
I may just use that in future 👊🏻🤣
🤣🤣🤣 Yep, that was fun[ny].
Great work lads. Always believed
Legend!
I AM Like #130 Viewer #5,031 Comment #91 Subscriber #8,791
How did you know that Gurubusters was in your discord group?
He's not going to use the same name is he?
Just wondering. 😀
They were on the same side in the beginning so he was probably using his own account. That's no to say he doesn't have multiple accounts.
@@sundaybighouse If he was using Gurubusters as his user name then that would be a give away.
But as you say he was probably using another user name in which case how would they know he is Gurubusters?
Maybe they know him personally but don't want to identify him.
I noticed in the video that they did mention someone by name, this could be Gurubusters real name, I don't know?
Thanks for your reply. 😀👍
Said person was in our Discord under said title.
@@TradingTheMarket Really - Wow!. I've watched his channel and I don't think you are scammers by the way.
He analyses strategies to the nth degree, he takes the fun out of betting.
If we were to believe what he says, then we might as well stop betting, no point.
But we know if we are getting value with are bets / trades then there will be a profit at the end of it.
Thanks for your reply much appreciated.
Keep up the good work! 😀👍
Is this a joke. The lay prices on such a bet are massive y. You would only need one to go against you to be in a hole.
Where has TTM and Sports IQ gone. The demise of both is spectacular and says a lot
Gone??
Demise??
We all have our own lives and families...
I can assure you TTM is very much a sleeping giant.
@@TradingTheMarket well the decision to end the discord in favor of a TH-cam community? Seems pretty quiet if you ask me. I guess only paid Sports-IQ users can engage now via Discord, of which I am no longer one. Good luck as and when the sleeping giant awakens
Fucking sexy. Brilliant video James and Billy. Thanks for all you do keep it up legends ❤
Love you too Mish ❤
I watched the latest video from Gurubuster criticising you. The guy seems very closed minded.
In his eyes, if you obtain yields greater than 1-2%, you are full of BS. With this definition I must be full of BS too as my set and forget strategies return far better yields than his golden standard.
Carry on making your videos, ignore the guy.
Bloody Boom 💥 👏
Gurubusters video called you out on the nonsense, yet you still persist with this awful 'strategy', I lost a lot of money on it before I was clever enough to see the light.
And yet here you are...still watching.
Good luck in your trading journey.
you comment the same shite on our videos, yet you dont answer when questioned why your failing, dont play the victim when your the problem not us, victims will always be victims
@@billyarma8451 you just had to close down, well done guru!
Close Down??? 😂
Turning off a chat function is seen as closing down??? 😝
I have never seen as many conspiracy theories come from all of your mouths...it truly is hilarious the things you guys say over there, proper makes me chuckle.
If it helps you sleep at night... happy days.
More fool you should of paper traded it 🤪
Haters are always going to hate. Don't listen to the noise
100%
100%
Solid video. Strange you get grief for giving away info for free that nobody is forced to follow. What I would say is laying isn't for everyone, especially at higher odds. Requires a certain mindset and something I dont cope with anyway! For those looking for an edge its reasonably straight forward. If your average odds you are laying at is 7.5 that equates to a probability of 13.3%. You *could* look at historic data across leagues and find leagues where O4.5 happens less than 13.3% of the time. So doing this with last 3 seasons data, as an example you get 11.23% matches O4.5 in Championship, 11.78% in League 1, 10.92% in Serie A, 10.12% in Serie B etc. etc. Just need to pull data from football-data, or use sports IQ. Of course still need to forward test as well.
1:34 - No need
Yes need
Yes need
@@TradingTheMarket all it does is drives people away from you. You can make your point much better without it.
Disappointed the way you deleted the discord channel.
Agreed.
💯 Lessons have been learned.
Dw bro we know you are giving us good information and we dont care about what other people has to say.
Many thanks once again, I have made the strategy work for small stakes and I’m a thick Brummie 😂 keep up the good work gents, ignore the c u next Tuesdays and thanks again 👍👍