Poker Hands - Fedor Holz Makes Moves In The Main Event
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 ก.ย. 2016
- Fedor Holz is a living legend. At the age 23, he already has $20 million in live MTT earnings, including a World Series of Poker bracelet in the Big One For One Drop. The One Drop is a super high roller that often features the likes of Daniel Negreanu, Phil Hellmuth, Phil Ivey, Antonio Esfandiari, and a host of the richest and most talented high stakes poker players around.
In this video, he's merely playing a $10,000 buyin event. However, it is called the WSOP Main Event for a reason. $8,000,000 is up top, and both Fedor and Upeshka De Silva want their share. Fedor will have to fight for it, however, as he mostly whiffs this runout. Doug analyzes this hand and shares his thoughts on the merit of running the bluff in this situation.
Poker Hands is a series in which Doug analyzes televised hands and shares his thoughts. New episodes are uploaded every Monday (and sometimes Thursday).
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#GrindNation
"Robbie, Robbie, more rake."
Hahaha I died xD
😂😂😂😂
"Less time to think is better" -Daniel Negreanu
Sometimes it is.
Sometimes your subconscious brain works better than your conscious mind magnifying what if’s.
Must be first Time He right about something
This is such a good hand with some great analysis. I've watched this like 10 times. You talk about so many good concepts and I've learned a ton. You and fedor are both so good.
Poker Hands is clearly the best thing on ur channel, thx improved me a lot
Quality content You are laying on us Doug! Big thumbs up
Thanks for the informative and entertaining content, Doug! Your analysis of hands shows what high level pros should be thinking about.
"What do you have?"
Fedor: Flares eyebrow
I love Fedor's table presence.
I love this entire segment, apart from your final take. I love how fedor looks him down after the barrel and believe it’s essential to the way he plays poker. You could say it gives the opponent an opportunity to make reads... but it also gives them an opportunity to be mistaken. That road goes both ways.
On the topic of Fedor staring down opponents, he does it for consistency imo. Since he is staring opponents on previous streets both when he is to act or when his opponent is to act, it would only be natural that he does the same on the river. Obv. for previous streets he is always gathering valuable information about his opponent's demeanor. In his mind, he isn't giving away information about himself while still being comfortable enough not to twitch, breath harder, or go into spasms (like i do when i bluff) . . . Love all your videos. Good to see someone with street cred (i.e. TV appearances) who is sharing his knowledge on TH-cam.
Mike Postle would wreck all these guys.
Janoy Cresva Only if they’re playing at Stones 😉
SOUL READS. HE'S A GOD. IT'S LIKE HE CAN SEE THE CARDS.
we should start a kickstarter campaign to get Postle into the 2020 Main.
@@richpanini5295 the ratings would be through the roof!
Mark Greenhowe if only he didnt have a daughter hed be able to leave the sacramento area and take the poker throne.
Great hand analysis, I really do wonder if Silva was thinking anything at all in the tank or just like a guy in your home game who just stares into space then calls. Also was surprised you didn't speculate on the influence of the clock being called! Love love!
You're a good talker, Doug. I talk for a living and play poker on the side and you're a good speaker in the 'delivery' sense for someone who I presume is quite new to it. Good content man, thanks.
I might be able to see some sort of sense in the stare down when it's up to them on the river and you have no more actions, if you believe it interrupts their thinking process in some way. But Fedor isn't even good at it. He looks very nervous.
Anyway on another note I think this is one of the best videos yet on Poker Hands because the action is so standard and it's explained in such a good way in terms of the whole 78 diamonds and QT diamonds checking the turn back if he had those hands.
I do often get a bit caught up in 'he could have a flush' without being able to think through the entire action of the hand and realising whether he really can have a flush and what flushes he can have. On the other hand you know you've kind of turned your hand face-up so feel like you're really being exploited. Tough spot...
Even though once or twice you go so quickly over something that I lose the middle of it, 99% of the time you are a solid teacher who both knows his shit and can effectively pass it on. Life dealt you the nuts, dude :-)
Great video Doug! Helped a lot!
That's a bad river for what Holz wants to represent and an amazing read by De Silva, I was completely sure that he was going to fold but apparently he managed to figure out Holz was turning a made hand into a bluff! Amazing call
awesome analysis man, love this series
Learned a lot from that analysis. Thanks doug
Just discovered this, Doug, you're a game theory genius, i fully follow your logic.
I feel like i have as much hubris as Edward Norton on the way to the municipal workers game.
Thanks bro
Totally agreed with your comments Doug. I had a similar hand the other day in Amsterdam´s casino playing NL400. I had KdQd in the BTN and I opened 14€, BB 3bets me to 52€ and I call. Flop is AhJh6d, he bets 56€ and I decide to float him, cause if he doesn't have the ace he's gonna have a hard time betting further streets. The turn is a Kh, he checks and well, at that point it didn't make any sense for me to bet, cause if he has an ace or a flush draw he's calling and if he doesn't I'm winning at the showdown anyway, so I check behind. Now it's where it gets interesting, the river is a Kc so the board reads as AhJh6dKhKc. He thinks for a minute or so and CHECKS, there is 218€ in the pot and I decide to bet for value 115€. He tanks and decides to shove, he covered me and I had 405€ behind. At that point I thought, does AA/JJ/QT check the turn AND the river? Unlikely. Does a flush check the river? Meh. They had to call the floor but I ended up finding a call and yeah, it was a stone cold bluff.
Love this series Doug!
Hey Doug, really insightful analysis. I still can't believe you're giving away this analysis for free :). Thanks.
jarretman!
Love these videos Doug. Great analysis
Really liked the editing on this Poker Hands. It felt less intrusive on the action
Now that was a beautiful play and an equally beautiful breakdown by Polk, outstanding, these videos are great lessons in poker thinking.
Run good, play good, and retire. The non-degenerate version of Stu Ungar is taking a weird line in life.
Oh you mean a practical poker player. Who ever heard of that one? :)
The German pro player tax is real
I think his entire 'retirement' was a ploy to let him continue to play the $1M one for one drop tourny, which no longer allowed pro players lol
@@Steezy93 Is there any evidence he even tried to play in that?
@@Dreamagain11 I dont know, but his 'retirement' was announced by him with a cheeky smile on his face when asked by a pokernews reporter what his thoughts were on the big one for one drop banning full time pro players... go figure
Good Analysis, well explained, learned a lot from this video
Great vid. In addition to the points made, I feel like the pot odds on the river as well as being left with
You win this hand ✋ once every ten times bad call in the long run.
Great analysis , i like the in depth variety of options. About the stare down, As a person who tries to be aware of tells, I always stare when checking , calling or raising while being aware of my body language , you said you were afraid of being read, but i invite it in order to give them false reads, then analyze yourself after a few hands to see how they can potentially interpret your plays and change your "tells" accordingly . If all else fails throw in some pure randomness to your strategy to throw off those who are getting wise to your plan.
That was an amazing bluff by fedor, salute.
greetings from italy! nice job doug keep going!
I think Doug's analysis is very close to spot on... However, I do think in this particular situation, the call from de silva is a little bit easier than it seems, in my opinion, on the river, it's a very simple nuts of bluff situation. Fedor in position, would check behind any set, any 2 pairs (if he had any of those hands, there's enough showdown value), and only a better hand (straight and flush) will call. So betting that river, even a straight is thin value, so I think it's pretty straight forward of bluff or nuts.
Fedor was balancing his table staredown ranges
As a dealer once told me: "No other game will punish you so heavily for playing well and yet reward you so handsomely for playing bad, as Poker." Best worst call by De Silva.
He obviously means short term, mainly just single hands in a vacuum, making the statement funny and true.
+Adam Seaquist - You get it
if you watch the whole thing, de silva says things like "fedor is special tho". he knows he can have those bluffs and, frankly, he's getting good odds on the call. i bet you he wouldn't call this against anyone else on this table
He wasn't sure what to do he knew he was against a Federline
Eduardo Seifert exactly, played the player not the hand.
It's interesting you titled this Fedor Holz Makes Moves, when all he did was move chips away from himself
I also like the last point Doug made, which I alluded to before I saw the crazy river card. De Silva could never shove for value with a strong two pair, but there are so few tens in de silva's range as played, I think Fedor can and should. You win tournaments that way, can't be scared of monsters under the bed, 10-10 is like one of the only combos de silva can have with a ten very often, and it never gets played this way, he likely gives up somewhere along the line, he for sure gives up in the face of any aggression, which u can usually count on against fedor. Great hand and video, some people are calling it a bad call by de silva, but there are theoretical and exploitative reasons it isn't necessarily bad, and Doug lays out the theory with the only issue being if Fedor is willing to shove two pair, but gotta think Fedors two pairs are on the average weaker and usually just a check back. If Fedor had QJ why bluff it, you are winning too often to go so thin on such a crazy board with an opponent who has a lot of AQ and the like, which beat you of course and you value own yourself in the biggest pot of your tournament.
Negreanu rofl 11:34
'So you have the king of diamonds and another diamond and you have a flush... But neither of them have that.'
doug I like u style, keep it up buddy, been trying to apply some of your logic into my game, takes practice ;)
I remember first watching this video a few years ago as I was first learning about poker. I noticed that Negreanu was talking to somebody on the rail, and as he went through the various hand combinations that were possible, he mentioned the flush, then said, "but neither of these guys have that". At the time it was simply impossible for me to understand how somebody could say something like that so confidently.
I now mostly understand why that's the case, though I don't entirely understand why you would have to check the turn if you had a flush draw.
It was a d1ck move by Negreanu to call the clock when he wasn't even in the hand then act all friendly after de Silva calls.
He was tanking for 5+ minutes, it was more than reasonable to call clock
Dude the clock is running on all of them. I love clock calls always. More hands
Was actually 17 mins of thinking
It just seems that way because they edited out the five minutes of tanking so that it makes better T.V. Negreanu has to play some hands if he wants to go deep in the main; other tables aren't waiting for de Silva to finish thinking.
Mathemagical55 Agreed. Pros gets miffed when an amateur calls the clock but it’s ok for the pros to do it? It’s a grey area. They should probably have a max time to make a decision in all tournaments, 2 or 3 minutes is sufficient.
Mate so much knowledge thank you a lot
Thank you teacher for the knowledge
really Doug, giving Daniel a pass here for calling the clock?? I would be pissed if i was Fedor, giving the time to think the hand through I think he would have folded. Real DI7K move by Daniel.
Hard to say how much time passed with this being edited. Clock still running and blinds going up while this guy tanking forever. So no, not really a dick move. dude was probably in the tank for 4+ minutes
nice review mr Doug. :)
Nice run down on this play. I honestly thought Fedor was gonna push the bluff and force him to fold on that river. That dude was stressed the fuck out lol. But he gut checked and stuck with it - came out on top when many might not have held on to AK like that.
As a beginner this was awesome to see.
As a beginner, assuming your playing 1/2, this is not analyses that will help. People don't bluff.
I actually think staring your opponent down when you're firing the river is pretty good tho, in this case when he's bluffing it looks like he's not afraid of confrontation and it can intimidate the player under pressure imo, and avoiding eye contact can show some weakness. I guess it depends on people anyway, and main thing would be to simply always stare someone down or just look at the table or whatever as long as it's consistent no matter the play, although I would prefer starting the opponent down, it puts even more pressure on him and pressure provokes mistakes.
I actually thought the staring (pretending to be strong)made him look like he had a weak hand. If you are really strong you want him to call so you don’t pretend to be strong.
All I know is, with one pair (albeit top), that board and my tourny life at stake, I would not have found that call.
And I think anyone would be a fool to dog you for folding there. The analysis shed a lot of light on the logic behind that call but it was still only something a psychopath would do...
He can call because Fedor is a good player capable of bluffing his stack know it's impossible to call with one pair.. Against better players I tend to call big bets with weaker hands and against crap players I usually fold to their aggression on boards like this cos they're never making a move.
Sick analysis I gotta be careful not value betting thinly enough when I have a lot of bluffs in my range.
@doug polk poker , I know this is an old video but can you explain or someone explain why KT of diamonds is not possible for Holtz to have. I even hear daniel say they cant have a king of diamonds in their hand. clearly im missing a removal deduction or something like that. Thanks
5:10 "De Silva could be bluffing", I laughed so hard on hearing that.
What do you think about sizing down as Fedor on the river. (1/2 - 3/4 pot size) I don't think jamming AJ+ makes a lot of sense by the river, and when he does jam de silva is able to figure he's now polarized without the value part often enough. This also allows us to have more A8/J8 type hands for value.
Good call by De Silva. Every good hand besides nut flush would check back the river, and it’s hard to put him on flush the way Holz played.
really amazing video
Man, I don't know how Silva calls there. Insane.
Alex Padilla Would he have called if holz went all-in on the river? What would you say.
mabye just fishy not insane ...
@@daithio.7378 holz did go all in the river, he covered De Silva.
Rekke Nice one, I had to think how did u know, the pot ,when de silva went all-in ✌️📸✌
Go out now or try and survive on 19BB? I'm with de Silva. If I'm out I'm out. I've already committed too much of my stack not to call all rivers.
Good analysis 👍
I remember this hand well from the ME it was a great bluff and a fantastic call.
The most important question of all time: what country does De Silva's flag in the hud represent? I must know for my imaginary geography test.
Sri Lanka
Lucas Röder thanks. I will ace my test now :)
Sri Lanka! Island off the southern coast of India
USA
Texas
Folding the hand leaves him crippled, calling gets him knocked out. At that point the other thing you forgot to mention is, if he folds, he could be folding to a bluff (happens) but he's basically out. If he calls he's out. So, the decision is alot easier than it looks.
TheSnowdolphin If he folded, he would have still had an above average stack. Was a terrible call
Donald Rockett Easy call. I used to pay my rent calling down bluffs like this...
dabearcub Yeah Ive analyzed it more. Yall are right. Just tough spot for pretty much main event life. Cash game, snap call. But yeah.
Donald Rockett I’ll say this, knowing Fedor I don’t envy anyone playing against him-but the call on the river was the easiest play of that hand.
If I were Fedor I would have folded the flop. The decision to float the flop is essentially a decision to jam on the guy by the river, because almost none of his 3-bet range out the BB is going to have less than a strong pair by the river. And you could end up just stepping in it, BB has all the nut hands.
I believe, considering stack sizes, that the turn bet was a major inaccuracy, as it sucks De Silva (who is actually committed) into the pot, and minimizes FE on the river. So, it was better to check turn, ship river. Quite interesting (and pretty scary-looking) was even jam turn - if that would make any sense. ;) - As, realistically speaking, neither player is on a flush draw.
Holz stared him down, it may not have been a traditional staredown. It was the opposite of overly aggressive, it was a passive staredown. It takes a massive amount of calm to pull off, it went through...
Nice video Polkster.
Hey just a couple of questions.#1 why is poket 5's a good fold? #2 You said earlier that Fedor can take his line with alot of his value hands, then at the end you started talking about all these major value hands that dont bet the turn. So what hands actually bet the turn?? And if more of his big value hands check the turn, do you then think fedors best line should have been to check turn jam river?
great video
Nearly four years later I wonder if the GTO revolution has changed the view on the size of the flop bet?
Daniel calls the clock for one reason. Being on the TV table, and on ESPN, if they go off the air, he will lose camera time
Sooo, just taking a thought from one of your other videos. you mention how many people might argue that Fedor should be bluffing his diamond draws with a small bet jam line on the turn and river, but wouldnt this hand arguably make a better bluff than some of those draws? or at least as good. because should the Diamond miss on the river you would rather bluff with hands that do not have any diamonds in them because that increases the chance he was calling your small bet with a flush draw. correct?
Holy cow what a call!!! I thought Fedor would pull it off....wow what a call
Lesson to Fedor and rest off the world if You bluff someone South American make it for their turnament life.
Well I just talked to Pesh about this hand at a WPT event and he said he definitely had a live read on him that helped him make this sick call. I thought he did after watching this. Fedor's adams apple was bouncing up and down like he was nervous.
Fedor played this so well. Most players will fold the flop or call flop then check back turn and give up river. On De Silva part, if he was against anyone else at this table or was playing a lowerstake tournament and facing this line, this is 100% a fold. Your opponent just 10/10 times have a flush or straight when they shove, not even set or two pairs.
One thing to consider is that De Silva likes recognizes Holz as the best player at the table, and that maybe in a close spot, it's worth trying to prevent him from having chips. It could be worth it here to make a marginally exploitable call in that regard.
I'd also add 9h7h to Holz's bluff range here.
Does daniel calling the clock have any influence over da silvas call, and what do you think bout him calling the clock, when its the guys whole poker stack in jeopardy.
The commentary from main event commentators is distorted with a high pitch squeaking.
Probably because the video is from ESPN, and can copyright claim it... (IDK about fair use tho)
Oh wait some people hear it well :(
0:55 Eh, that was ironic wit those fives ?
I was looking in the comment section for something on that, too.
Not having the king of diamonds can also be a good thing in this hand, it adds a few more combos of bluffs in Fedor's range such as Kd J or Kd Q or Kd 9
Fedor isn't raising any of those hands from the LJ. So no, he can't have them.
love the way that negreanu tries to make it about himself by taking the credit for the winning call at the end.
What hands is De Silva check-jamming the turn with? Why can't Fedor turn more of his draws into semi-bluffs on the turn? Yes, betting 7d8d or 10Js on the turn gets messy if De Silva jams, but I'm not sure how many hands De Silva does that with.
Is that Seiver comment a hint at the next hand thats gonna be reviewed?
it's crazy how much better you look nowadays. your good health shows 👍
I wonder what you think he would do with 88 and JJ on the flop. Id assume he would just flat with stack sizes. And he probably does value those specific hands.
but flop is pretty wet and even sets are vulnerable so I'd probably look to x/c AA and x/r JJ/88 and with 8d8x I might be inclined to x/c more but I'm probably not 3betting 88 OOP preflop too often, if at all. I think its a good strategy to have a few combmos which x/r the flop and some which x/c flop then x/r the turn but stack size is too shallow on the river after Villain bets the turn so definitely don't slow play any AA on the turn since again, it only has a x/c or lead OTR. Villain can't punish you with an overbet on the river if you don't have any really strong hands to disincentivize them to do so since they don't have the stack depth for it. The only reason to x/c flop and turn with sets would be that if Villain knew our strategy OTR of checking some sets it might assist our bluffcatchers in increasing their showdown value (since villain won't value bet as thinly) but determining how often if at all Hero should do this is something to be left for computers to determine.
What a call with that board
So many hands can beat AK here, what a sick call wow!
My favourite dealer
Great job Mr. Polk.....
This hand could be broken down a bit further, especially on the turn. The bet sizing was really the key there and it makes this hand incredibly complex.
He said "i like the size...", but others have often said it doesn't really matter - which is it?
I hated this river call when I first saw it and I probably hate it even more one year later.
The thing is, DeSilva is close to the top of his range here, he likely bets 2pairs, sets, straights and fds on the turn (though checking KT with flush blockers might be good) so if he's always folding he almost always folds letting Holz just go to town on him
Interesting point. But I think he can check stronger hands on the turn to a very aggressive player. So is not at the top of his range.
I think he can check all sets if he thinks Fedor will barrel his draws on turn and river. And wants to keep Fedor's range wide. If he is playing hyper aggressive and has weak holdings.
____________________________
On the other hand, if you player the game the other way. Once he calls the turn. What is the weakest hand he get arrive at the river with? And fold?
If you argued he is at the bottom of his range. What is his weakest/strongest holding to check/fold the river with? What is he going to fold if AK is a call?
What else peels the turn then folds on a Ten worse than AK. I think there is an argument to say it is the only hand he has.
He could have A7/A6/A5/A4/A3/A2 I suppose but with the 3 bet sizing I just doubt it when he knows he is going post flop against arguably the best Hold'em player in the universe. I doubt he is that balanced in this situation.
KQ/KJ seems a bit bad of a selection to 3 bet. Since they play well postflop. KJ of hearts may play this way which is a 1/1400 combination and an unlikely 3 bet. Just saying. KQ can call the turn, I suppose and then fold. KJ likewise.
______________________________
Having said that - although, an interesting exercise.
Thinking of it the other way. Is kind of the only relevant way since he has to beat Fedor's range and if Fedor has more value than bluffs - it is kind of irrelevant if it is the worst or best holding in De Silva's range.
If he only arrives with AK - he is not being exploited if Fedor has more value combos than bluffs. + Think he certainly does at the price offered.
Opt for 8% of the pot then it becomes close (remembering suited combinations and unsuited value of AJ/AQ these combos increase 5 times as many). 5% of the pot maybe with ICM we can call. I just think we are being too ambitious and got so lucky here in De Silva's shoes.
Not all the time but some % of the time I think he can have a hand like a set.
I didn't notice the Size Fedor had behind when I made the comment. I agree he is at the top of his range
Anything stronger possibly C/R all in.
Yep, I'm sticking to my $2.20 bounty builders - no way I could go into this type of analysis! (Albeit, I have only been playing poker since January!).
Best of luck!
Take your time. You gotta learn to walk before you can run before you can fly.
SMG 1993 ...yeah, I imagine fedor was busy doing a similar amount of analysing during the hand but he still lost....bring back ABC poker.
Sometimes agression just comes back to you this was an agressive call with some decicions based on history between them. Fedor did made the best play but the call was pure out of desperatation then much of a tell thats how i see it.
Question about Holz value betting thinly: Since he's putting De Silva all-in and now De Silva needs to factor his tournament life into the decision (since he can't win the tournament if he calls and loses), should Holz river shoving range be relatively polarized ?
Plus since Holz can check OTR and not put any more money in that pot, shouldn't that also narrow his value-betting and bluffing ranges? Because to bet here, Holz still needs to risk what is a significant portion of his remaining stack and thus if he loses OTR it reduces the chance that Holz wins the tournament as well.
So I think that would lead to the conclusions that A) Holz should be value betting less thinly because De Silva can't call as often for ICM reasons and B) Holz should be value betting less thinly because Holz can check and show down his hand and winning the additional chips that hold risks in a value bet is somewhat outweighed by losing those chips.
So I think that would be mean that Holz does not even have AQ and AJ all that often and maybe only has straight and the occasional flush?
I wonder if Holz could check turn and jam all scare cards on the river? Maybe the fold equity would be higher? Also how many folds can you induce with that turn bet?
YT recommend showing me this 4 years too late as always
I feel like you kind of missed the most important aspect of this discussion which is making a reasonable list of holz's bluff combo's. I dont think it should be assumed that he has 86s preflop flatting a 3b here always. I think other bluff candidates here are pretty much honestly only KJs, which de silva blocks with Kc, making it one of his worst possible bluffcatchers.
I could be mistaken but feel hes only good vs 78s and KJs here for the most part, making this a terrible call with the Kc blocker even if he's only vbetting straights+ imo. Also 78dd got there and think it always turns itself into bluff on turn. So that only leaves 78ss and 78cc for 78's and for KJ's only KJss since KJhh is likely imo to not turn hand into bluff with that much equity. I also disagree that TJ always tries to just go for showdown on turn, think its a pretty good candidate for barreling off some % esp with no fd.
You got good point, but I think one other point he missed and you is great pot odds he have to call .He needed to be right around 23%+ in this spot to call.
yeah that's a good point, but the fact that hes out of the tournament if he loses also imo has a big effect on the decision, somewhat going against that. Also if he sells action the loss of future investors for making such a perceived to be terrible call is another one going against him. ;).
If Fedor had one of his value combo's here I feel like everyone would be more able to look at the hand logically and state that it's clearly a terrible call. The fact that he ran into one of his couple bluff combo's makes everyone consider that it might be a good call, when really hes just got extremely lucky unless he had a live read, which, lets be honest here, cant really be taken as fact from the only person on earth who would have a bias towards him in fact having a live read in order to take the pressure of playing badly off of him.
imo.
So he flats the 3bet with 87s, but not 86? Yeah. okay.
"if he loses also imo has a big effect on the decision" so is playing scared money. Dude do you know what you're talking about?
yeah its possible he does in fact have 86s in his actual range, was simply saying I dont think we should make a call based on that assumption as most people likely wont have 86s in their range here and I dont see he could know for sure that Fedor does have 86s here. Even given that though I still think on this river its probably a fold with this combo (Kc).
I think this would definitely be a fold in cash games, im just saying that if I think its a close decision im more likely to fold in a tournament than in cash, so that I can still be in the tournament when im wrong with 19bbs. Especially given that this is the main event which is an extremely high value tournament.
Ballzy call for all your chips and your tournament ! I dont think DeSilva analized that hand as well as you did Doug. He just gave up on his tournament when he called.
how about sets is he always jamming the turn? because he is always flatting 88 and jj maybe qq and aa aswell
You could bluff with TT on the turn?? I know that's better than 87 but i do feel like its decent because u block the straight?
at 13:55 why will the SB have way more hands like flushes and straights?
I could see the fear on silva when the queen came out.
This call is so sick