Lets face it, if halo was realistic, you'd basically just have giant wheeled breadboxes filled to the brim with offensively armed drones and both sides would wheel their shit out and their drones would fight each other like in DBZ where the two dudes shoot their beams at each other and whoever had the most effective drones would win the beam battle.
even drone signal jammers have become ineffective. russians are using drones that are connected by fiber optic cable which there right now is no counter against.
I think whats honestly most shocking about the War in Ukraine is how much of it has justified what the US has been focused on. The massive pushes for laser anti-drone weaponry and rapid anti-missile defense systems. The idea of point-defense for armored vehicles, etc. Predate this war by a longshot. Similarly, almost every issue on both sides has shown the absolute cripplingly awful nature of the former Soviet legacy command structure of an extremely non-atomic (not as in nuclear) army. Ukraine's been better at it, but they're still not great, and Russia's failures with individual initiative, combined arms training, and that level of importance that matters from generals to officers to NCOs to even individuals in a squad is completely showcased. Similarly the absolutely unmistakably over-blown effects of western long range precision weaponry has been undeniable. The one thing that is definitely hardest here though is opsec needs have skyrocketed, and wartime propaganda has become mandatory. The actual efforts of both sides to portray victories, showcase, spread them, and get them to go viral via videos is constant, as well as the needs to hide information they don't want to get out. I.E. Both sides have had major losses be the direct result of a telegram video that showed (obscured) Troop movement plans.
Preparing for the future... in 1807 Denmark lost its entire fleet in war with England. The Danish king immediately ordered forests of oak planted, so we could build a new one. Those trees are perfect for shipbuilding right now..
no one could have predicted that a hard-shell helmet would be the most important peace of a soldier kit in ww1, no one could have predicted that a simple pump-shotgun would be the most important peace of a soldier kit in 2022.
The "outro" you did killed me. I love how this channel breaks down complex issues into simple topics (though I do have the very obvious bias of agreeing with everything you said before watching the video) and your use of deadpan humor takes it to the next level
Answer: Don't play enough video games. I was making and flying exploding drones into people on a Build&Destroy PvP server in Garry's Mod back in 2010s as a lil teen. I knew enough that I couldn't win every time with the gun, so I learned how to use wiremod and rig up my own shitty flyable plane with explosives wired to it to do the job.
Going to have to disagree with you at 4:21. FPV drones existed long before 2022. In fact, back in 2019, I was flying FPV drones. I literally told my father back then: "If WW3 ever breaks out, they're going to love me". Low and behold, the Ukraine war.
I don't know why anybody thinks tanks are obsolete for one it's only a matter of time before some genius or 10 dozen people with half the intelligence but an infinitely larger budget at a defense contractor, create a powerful drone countermeasure that can be mounted on a tank. And even if that never happens, which is very unlikely. That just leaves us in a situation where drones and cheap anti-tank systems perfectly counter tanks but can't take territory from infantry and emplacements. Because drones specialize in taking out large, valuable, relatively defenseless targets.
Lots of people don't understand that tanks have IR vision now (as well as other technologies) to look ahead and see if anyone is hiding and waiting with anti-tank weapons.
The thing about is that if tanks are obsolete because of drones, that would mean *every vehicle* is also "obsolete ". But they just see tanks getting hit and think it's the end all be all
@@pogers625 that's literally the opposite of what I mean. YOU claimed that drones specialize in taking out large armour, when in reality they have seen extremely wide usage as anti-personnel weapons.
WRT HUMVEE armor kits, our narrator says "there weren't enough to go around". Bzzzt. The company making the retrofit kits had the capability to make TWO PER MONTH. During World War 2 Willys, the little firm that made Jeeps, owned the intellectual property rights to the Jeep was told, by the War Department that if they did not agree to licesne their IP so big industrial outfits could start making Jeeps the War Department would simply seize the IP, out of necessity. Rumsfeld could have done this, but didn't.
What funny with the drones is that my group tried banning them for our paintball games and people just made them harder to see and quieter. We went the opposite direction as the Ukrainians as we modded our drones to have blades with specific grooves and funnels to make them produce less noise at a less noticable frequency, and then got quick wraps and cases to change their color to match the sky.
They did hire firearm companies to design their video game firearms, with Armed Assault 3 (ArmA3, yea that’s what Arma means) so it’s not surprising that they carry their predictions into the game which they made into reality later on.
Ya, but man, their night vision gear and drone options (not DLC included) are pretty primitive by today’s standards in Arma 3. And it’s supposed to be set in 2035.
@@mdioxd9200 well it’s more like, they arnt hybrid thermal/night vision. Which is something we have now, so you’d think we would have those by 2035 (And I’m not talking about the ones from Apex, I mean like, actual combined-hybrid stuff like we have today)
They fought tanks were obsolete in the Yom Kippur War in 73 because of ATGMs entry and success. They are still in the game, and I don't think tanks will be obsolete from drones.
Even though its ludicrously bulky, I'm supremely disappointed that the OICW rifle didn't become a thing. Its just such a cool concept. It has a very "Starship Troopers" esthetic.
An artillery war only works when neither side has air superiority. If you can’t take out arty with planes, they can rule the battlefield, as soon as the planes can fly they become irrelevant
Ah yes less forget about manpads, AAs, SAMs and surface-to-airs, drones, counter air, etc etc etc shall we. Also half of those are countered by ...... arty. Combine arms has always been all about war. We just adds dimensions to them. Maybe the next war would be satelites weapons as our enemies drops a 1 ton tungsten rod on our heads.
You're failing to recognize how artillery equipment can be concealed with the environment, and can reposition to avoid exactly what you are talking about
@@maximepirard6171cost only matters when you’re not the US, and it can’t rain/snow all the time. As soon as the weather is clear the arty is getting destroyed. Im not saying artillery is useless, I’m saying it takes a back seat when the skies are owned by one side.
Usually you get hints at what the best war will be but people don’t learn the large enough lessons. The Ukrainian use of drones was going on for years in the Donbas and the mutual electronic warfare back and forth. This didn’t come out of nowhere. It was a capability slowly developed but then put into the mass scale after 2022
I think Canada is doing some work with those. My concern would be the wire itself being disrupted by debris, and it literally drawing a line to your position. I’m sure people smarter than me are working on how to get around that.
@@Justin_Taylor Semi-autonomous drones could reduce required bandwidth similar to a human pilot, sending just the key information. Mass dispersed drone swarms could reduce vulnerability to jamming by acting as a network of short-range connections (in a loud environment you may get closer to someone to speak to them). Drones that blend into the natural environment (such as being disguised as birds and flying low) could store information on an internal drive and physically deliver it back to friendly forces. Targets that haven't moved (hopefully because they didn't realize they've been located) could be hit by artillery, while others could be observed simply to learn their behavior and assess their strength.
@@cloudmaster182 Many ATGMs and torpedoes are wire-guided. Communication wires are commonly deployed between defensive positions. If your goal is just to put a camera atop a tree or building and have a radio-silent video feed, a tethered drone would be very useful.
@JWQweqOPDH that makes a lot more sense. Ig I was picturing something more offensive like the weaponized drones with guns or the ones that drop explosives, but tethered to a wire. You have showed me there CAN be a practical application
I think you are missing the overarching, common theme between drones, tanks, and artillery. Both sides in Ukraine are limited by defense production. In future peer conflict, the side that spins up its defense production fastest will win. We need to move away from the idea that when we need more shells/drones/tanks, we will need to build new factories. Defense production must become highly automated, and when the next peer conflict begins, it really does need to be as simple as pressing a button to turn on the mothballed robotic factory that spits out 5000 shells a day. Otherwise we're up against a billion people with a low standard of compensation and no regulatory oversight burden.
It's just hard to predict anything in general. Educated guesses are the most we can do. Even mathematical models can be "useful for prediction" but never "prophetic"
I think artillery and drones were underrated because we collectively forgot how good it is when you can hit them and they can’t hit you. We were too focused around hitting them first or having more armour but straight up not being there is great too.
I like the point that aircraft carriers overtook battleships but think it's also worth mentioning how it's unclear whether or not aircraft carriers will be the center of naval power in a near pear conflict. It's true that we don't have anything to replace their capability, but it's also true that we can't feasibly replace a ford carrier in a conflict. GWOT did give us practice in logistics, but possibly misleading practice given the difference in scale. We won't need ukraine levels of artillery in most conflict, but other weapons like shoulder fire rockets will be used more extensively and we are having issues increasing production. Replacing capabilities is important, but logistics win wars and it will be interesting and terrifying to see how well the US can adapt to sustained intensity
On the timeline of a war, we don't necessarily need to replace our carriers. If China goes one-for-one on carriers with us (unlikely) we still have eight, and shipyards don't exactly move - the US would have a much easier time knocking out China's ability to contest the sea than China would have knocking out the US's ability.
Honestly, the biggest problem with predicting what the next war will look like, is people always underestimate how much new tech makes previous tactics and weaponry obsolete. The next war will be a lot less exciting than people think. It won’t be Vietnam with high tech gear, it won’t even be desert storm with high tech gear. It’ll be stealth fighters and drones destroying military infrastructure, small squads of infantry trying to hunt drone teams to clear a path for tanks, and most importantly, cyber warfare. Almost every war since WWI, technology has made war less grandiose than what everyone expected at the time. WWI saw the end of the glorious cavalry charge. WWII saw the end of Battleships shooting big guns at each other. Vietnam showed that smaller units striking fast with helicopters was more effective than mobilizing an entire army to march in and capture the entire region. The gulf war showed that precision guided munitions and air to air missiles were far more effective than guns and unguided bombs. Ukraine is showing us that small drones are more effective at destroying armored vehicles, infrastructure, and morale than sending in a company of tanks.
That will never happen with nuclear armed opponents, the second stealth technology is used, it any shrewd country would immediately utilize their nuclear arsenal. Stealth technology ironically will only be used to bully and route the most technologically inferior opponents of the middle east and nothing more.
You just think this because your internet echo chamber(s) are full of people with military knowledge. Go ask a random dude what combined arms warfare is and they won’t be able to give you an even rudimentary definition.
I think part of it is that nobody knows what military capability any nation actually has. The US had the F-22 for almost 15 years before the public learned about it. It's still considered the best air superiority fighter in public knowledge, and it's 50 years old. Russia had the T-72 for almost 5 years before they actually showed it off. Next to nobody can tell you what any nation can ACTUALLY do, and thus can't predict how a war will happen.
Military RND has two goals, which I would argue explains this issue: 1. Solve new experienced problems. 2. Match or surpass what the other guy has. Most military equipment is used as a deterrent. This in context of 1, 2 and cost indirectly dictates how new RND money is spent.
First Sea Lord Jackie Fisher predicted the start of WW1 (to the day!) over 5 yrs beforehand - something to do with battleships & the widening of the Kiel Canal. BUT...he followed up that astounding piece of prediction with a total "drop the ball" moment with his championing of the "Battle Cruisers", which got their asses handed to them by the Germans during their very first engagement. As you say, this shit's real hard to anticipate...
There are two (or more) people who get a vote In how a conflict happens, which is a goodly part as to why a conflict is hard to predict… they do not have to play by your rules.
Last week a livestream showed up on my TH-cam recommendations where there supposedly was a live video of a tank fighting in Ukraine - i was in shock how many people DIDN’T realise that it was ARMA 3 gameplay Like bro, in a real war the enemy doesn’t glitch through walls…yet
The companies that design, test, and build weapons systems get paid more to retrofit a failure than to succeed in the first place. I suppose anytime a weapons system does not over run its budget, there is a shareholder lawsuit.
It was predicted, more or less accurately, by Stanislaw Lem. The rest just fall into the trap of routinely confusing MIC pitches to DoD (a commercial effort) for actual reason-based preparations
@@Justin_Taylor let’s go glad to hear that man, also I know you mostly making military content as of now but will u still be dropping some occasional purely philosophical topic vids cuz u also talked about ur huge interest in philosophy books so would want to hear some of ur views and Ik most of ur vids have never been yk like purely surrounding philosophy but often on ur vids such as one about the masculinity u certainly come off as a mind that trys to think for urself and critically when formulating ur opinion which in the world is not common considering how we just spew everything spoon fed to us. Not even that I agree with all ur opinions but still an interesting opinion to hear nonetheless
5:23 "William Lendrum Mitchell, said to be the father of the US airforce." "He advocated for more focus on airpower at the time and correctly predicted how aircraft would play a vital role in future wars." "Of course, the boomers at the time kept trying to silence him because they just wanted to make bigger battleships."
CAS is one of the biggest take aways from Iraq and afghan. Our ability to coordinate and call in air strikes is a huge advantage is objectively much harder when dealing with insurgents as you don’t have established lines. Intelligence gathering is also much better now.
For those wondering which defense contractors to invest in, it's super easy. There are only 5 big ones worth mentioning, and 4 of those are not Boeing. Do not pick Boeing.
Like your videos, do you think you could do one on the conflict in Myanmar? Cuz the rebels seem to be winning but I'm not sure if that's because my sources are biased or not.
11:53 also i suspect we are going to start seeing "fighter drones" think you ali drone with beefier motors and probably some sort of fully automatic pistol strapped to it or possible a sawn off shot gun or maybe a clay more or hand grenade for the "im taking you with me variant"
I'm no expert at all, and not half as smart as Preston. But I've been saying something similar since the beginning: we don't need more artillery if we have what Ukraine doesn't: overwhelming air power.
@@DefaultProphet As long as you keep them poor enough in debt, student loans, lack of housing and somehow make them think joining military to make that cash instead of revolting against the goverment, the rich, their neighboor and their dog then all is fine.
i'm a little worried that aircraft carriers are going to be the battleships of the next war. Still super useful, but only if you can get them to where they need to be without getting beaten up. If someone's able to figure out a good cheap swarm drone with proper military capabilities (instead of Russian walmart knockoffs), I could see a scenario where our giant floating expensive cities could get sunk or damaged enough that they would have to return to base for repairs. Look at the difference in the amount of AA for ships at the beginning of WWII compared to the end. We do have AA and anti missle capabilities on our ships, but if we're talking about small drones in large numbers, i'm not sure we'd be able to take out enough targets quickly enough to prevent stuff slipping through. Which could end up having carriers act like the Yamato in WWII, too expensive to risk losing but also too important to leave in port
Our narrator mentions that a firm developed retrofits to up-armor HUMVEEs. Our narrator fails to mention the armor retrofit did not armor the UNDERSIDE of the HUMVEE - the part that was vulnerable to mines and IEDs.
I have always said that tanks should have auto cannon. A tank with a radar guided auto cannon, would be able to take out drones with easy, which would restore them to being useful again. Something small like the man-portable battlefield surveillance radar would work best.
Enjoyed the video up until what I felt was an abrupt end. It would be good if you could sum up the premise of the video or definitely answer (in your opinion) the question your video proposes. Why we suck at predicting future war - because it is dynamic and ever changing. That's a gross oversimplification but you get the idea. Anyway keep them coming. They are interesting and you obviously do a lot of research to be well informed. Cheers
2:37 What is he saying here after "forest camo"? It sounds like he's saying "the pitopic army", which doesn't make any sense. I couldn't find anything looking up "patopic" or "potopic" either. Am I missing something?
I've given a lot of thought to this and thinking about conceptual art and how many games and movies depict mechs, I'm pretty sure the only way they're viable is if they're maximum 15 feet tall (more often less), very hypermobile and with targeting systems that surpass human abilities and the ability to field gear that is far too heavy for crews to carry on their own and able to traverse terrain that is impossible for things such as a HMMWV. Basically they'd be nuclear powered terrifying militarized hypermobile slendermen, as their mobility and ability to use some degree of cover would have to be their greatest defense (along with perhaps being equipped with electronic warfare equipment).
you can only defend from what you can comprehend. And at scale, the ability to adapt offers diminishing returns. It's also because the same reason that in the cyber security consulting world, companies are unwilling to front the cost to defend against a 'fearmongering hypothetical' today that will be in their networks tomorrow. Also because A-10's
12:05 This notion that indirect fire is not the future is down right wrong. Artillery shells CAN be maneuvered after fire. It is not cannon balls anymore. They can be fitted with rockets or ramjets to increase range, internal fins (think stinger or similar control fins, but they go into the body rather than being on the outside) etc etc. Also maybe look up new Nato publications in regards to how Nato is setting up the future to both deal with needed production capacity when needed and currently to support Ukraine.
Why make tube arty do a missiles job? Arty is great at being cheap and still effective, missles are better at reaching further and being more precise. The excalibur round is nearly as expensive as a whole himars rocket with more range and 10x payload.
The US never really had to fight a war without air superiority, with most being fought with air supremacy. Now there's obviously a good reason for that, but that doesn't mean any conflict the US gets itself in can just be solved by throwing JDAMs at it, with little focus to ground-based fires. Just look how expensive the GWOT was, with most of the cost being CAS or PGMs - now imagine having to do that at thrice the scale and with numerous times over more enemy capacity at air defense. One lesson that can be taken out of Ukraine is that you need alternatives to CAS for situations where the airspace is too contested or the priority of the target is too low to risk an F-35. Amping up the production of artillery tubes and shells is probably not the best idea, as it's just playing to the enemy's advantage in that area and going down an attritional pathway which the US would probably lose (China or Russia don't have to worry that much about casualties impacting the home front - we do), but we already see Army brass playing around with the idea of integrating MRLS and HIMARS into brigade level and using them to shape the battlefield in situations where the Air Force isn't capable of doing that. If you've won the air war, you practically won the entire war. But if you didn't, then you need the tools necessary to win it through other means. And however powerful the USAF is, it's not a pistol in rock-paper-scissors - there have been situations where (in Vietnam for example) a force that's ten times less powerful in the air department was able to give us a bloody nose and mitigate that massive advantage. Similarly in Ukraine, where a force with numerous times less jets and a couple legacy air defense systems effectively defended it's airspace against, all things considered, a pretty powerful air force. We need to be ready to wage a war that's different from Desert Storm.
My only major point of disagreement comes on artillery. There's no such thing as an army that is not artillery-centric. Fires from air support are simply not comparable operationally. Not having that capability to compete in traditional artillery, putting shells down range, means we cannot fight the type of war we may find ourselves in. No one 'wants' to get into a bogged-down slow-maneuvering war. But we will, eventually. Writing it off as 'not our focus' comes at our peril. Come up against a serious air-defense network and you just can't get fires on.
In a world of uninterceptable hypersonic missiles, an aircraft carrier in nothing but a liability. Before the enemy is even within operational range of your aircraft, they've put multiple missiles into your ship and sunk it.
12:32 gonna be really interesting to see artillery delivered drones lol which isn't a joke i suspect that will happen great for intel gathering basically a star shell but with a drone instead great way to get intel and live feed from 40 km into the enemys airspace without having to fly the drone there
I think you need to break it down to the bare fundamentals. Cyber-warfare is disrupting supply lines and sieging cities. Non-cavalry replacing cavalry sounds absurd, don't lead your horses to archers.
11:49 prediction .. you going to start seeing ciws system on tanks .. something along the lines of a automatic shot gun probably over time this will expand into a hard kill styem to take out atoms drone infantry r[pg or basically anything it can track and hit think the crows system but linked to a lidar or radar system for anti air defence in the mean time expext to see light shorrad maybe somethign like the vads those probably based on what ever the currect ifv platform is my personal bet is something like the cv90 with its 400mm but with increased gun elevation a radar or lidar and increased traversing and elevation gearing thing cv 90 with the turret replaced with the dardo ciws
Except we have no data whatsoever to support the notion that aircraft carriers are in fact the penultimate form of naval power. Sure, the nuclear ACC's fielded by the US allow for unprecedented and unrivaled force projection. But to date they have been fielded against zero adversaries with any ability to threaten them. These vessels and their attached fleets and capabilities have never faced anything that could even dream of posing a threat to them. We don't have the first incling of how they would fare against a legitimate peer threat. That goes for everything we have. The conflict in Ukraine has shown the world a whole new regime of warfare and yet, it's not a real peer conflict and everybody knows it.
Great video man, thanks for letting me be a small part of it!
He made you black dude
Great video
hey cutie hmu when ur 18 💖
@@Bean_guy2naw that was totally him just really tan.
You got so much buffer, richer, plus you are 16 now!
In wars of the future, we will have cyborg samurai cowboys fighting massive nuclear robot superweapons with swords
Don’t forget about the orbital lasers!
sounds pretty cool
And then a senator will come along that played college ball, and he’ll try to plunge the country into war 😅
Naw, we'll be fighting alongside our alien allies against the human eating aliens.
In reality war in the future is just going to be trench warfare with drone kill teams hovering over you waiting for you to take a dump.
Things in halo: Pump Action Shotguns
Things not in halo: Drone signal jammer countermeasure
Can be used the same way we say “none of those words are in the Bible” with crazy military tech being “none of that is in halo”
Lets face it, if halo was realistic, you'd basically just have giant wheeled breadboxes filled to the brim with offensively armed drones and both sides would wheel their shit out and their drones would fight each other like in DBZ where the two dudes shoot their beams at each other and whoever had the most effective drones would win the beam battle.
even drone signal jammers have become ineffective. russians are using drones that are connected by fiber optic cable which there right now is no counter against.
@@BlackWolf9988I’m pretty sure you mean copper. Optical fibre is rigid and very fragile.
Im ready for the Halo Master Chief suit
You got it backwards. The suit is ready for *you*.
@@Justin_Tayloranother great video man
Keep it up
Good luck surviving the augmentation procedures
Due to augmentation difficulties, I suggest starting with ODST variants
I think whats honestly most shocking about the War in Ukraine is how much of it has justified what the US has been focused on. The massive pushes for laser anti-drone weaponry and rapid anti-missile defense systems. The idea of point-defense for armored vehicles, etc. Predate this war by a longshot.
Similarly, almost every issue on both sides has shown the absolute cripplingly awful nature of the former Soviet legacy command structure of an extremely non-atomic (not as in nuclear) army. Ukraine's been better at it, but they're still not great, and Russia's failures with individual initiative, combined arms training, and that level of importance that matters from generals to officers to NCOs to even individuals in a squad is completely showcased.
Similarly the absolutely unmistakably over-blown effects of western long range precision weaponry has been undeniable.
The one thing that is definitely hardest here though is opsec needs have skyrocketed, and wartime propaganda has become mandatory. The actual efforts of both sides to portray victories, showcase, spread them, and get them to go viral via videos is constant, as well as the needs to hide information they don't want to get out. I.E. Both sides have had major losses be the direct result of a telegram video that showed (obscured) Troop movement plans.
Preparing for the future... in 1807 Denmark lost its entire fleet in war with England. The Danish king immediately ordered forests of oak planted, so we could build a new one. Those trees are perfect for shipbuilding right now..
no one could have predicted that a hard-shell helmet would be the most important peace of a soldier kit in ww1, no one could have predicted that a simple pump-shotgun would be the most important peace of a soldier kit in 2022.
Eh the shotguns are the last line of defense against drones in Ukraine and frankly many people are killed by drones that don’t or can’t see.
The "outro" you did killed me. I love how this channel breaks down complex issues into simple topics (though I do have the very obvious bias of agreeing with everything you said before watching the video) and your use of deadpan humor takes it to the next level
This is the next big military channel on TH-cam, looking forward to more videos!
The "no one reads doctrine" joke at the end 😂
That had me in stitches
Answer: Don't play enough video games.
I was making and flying exploding drones into people on a Build&Destroy PvP server in Garry's Mod back in 2010s as a lil teen.
I knew enough that I couldn't win every time with the gun, so I learned how to use wiremod and rig up my own shitty flyable plane with explosives wired to it to do the job.
I agree, IED on top of the drone in the game squad was a thing long before this war.
@@goglinasgolosinas64 didju forget battlefield 3 existed
@@ZigaZagu TRUE I didn't think of that.
Going to have to disagree with you at 4:21. FPV drones existed long before 2022. In fact, back in 2019, I was flying FPV drones. I literally told my father back then: "If WW3 ever breaks out, they're going to love me". Low and behold, the Ukraine war.
I don't know why anybody thinks tanks are obsolete for one it's only a matter of time before some genius or 10 dozen people with half the intelligence but an infinitely larger budget at a defense contractor, create a powerful drone countermeasure that can be mounted on a tank. And even if that never happens, which is very unlikely. That just leaves us in a situation where drones and cheap anti-tank systems perfectly counter tanks but can't take territory from infantry and emplacements. Because drones specialize in taking out large, valuable, relatively defenseless targets.
Damn 11:38 The moment I shared my opinion, he says almost the exact same thing ☹️
Lots of people don't understand that tanks have IR vision now (as well as other technologies) to look ahead and see if anyone is hiding and waiting with anti-tank weapons.
The thing about is that if tanks are obsolete because of drones, that would mean *every vehicle* is also "obsolete ". But they just see tanks getting hit and think it's the end all be all
"Because drones specialize in taking out large, valuable, relatively defenseless targets." have you not seen any footage from this war?
@@pogers625 that's literally the opposite of what I mean. YOU claimed that drones specialize in taking out large armour, when in reality they have seen extremely wide usage as anti-personnel weapons.
WRT HUMVEE armor kits, our narrator says "there weren't enough to go around". Bzzzt. The company making the retrofit kits had the capability to make TWO PER MONTH.
During World War 2 Willys, the little firm that made Jeeps, owned the intellectual property rights to the Jeep was told, by the War Department that if they did not agree to licesne their IP so big industrial outfits could start making Jeeps the War Department would simply seize the IP, out of necessity.
Rumsfeld could have done this, but didn't.
What funny with the drones is that my group tried banning them for our paintball games and people just made them harder to see and quieter. We went the opposite direction as the Ukrainians as we modded our drones to have blades with specific grooves and funnels to make them produce less noise at a less noticable frequency, and then got quick wraps and cases to change their color to match the sky.
Bohemia Interactive were pretty impressive at predicting the NGSW system, and even the 6.8mm cartridge
Man, 100 meters, front
They did hire firearm companies to design their video game firearms, with Armed Assault 3 (ArmA3, yea that’s what Arma means) so it’s not surprising that they carry their predictions into the game which they made into reality later on.
Ya, but man, their night vision gear and drone options (not DLC included) are pretty primitive by today’s standards in Arma 3.
And it’s supposed to be set in 2035.
@@nobodyherepal3292 true, the cute nato twin tubes nvgs are looking ancient from today's standard
@@mdioxd9200 well it’s more like, they arnt hybrid thermal/night vision. Which is something we have now, so you’d think we would have those by 2035
(And I’m not talking about the ones from Apex, I mean like, actual combined-hybrid stuff like we have today)
They fought tanks were obsolete in the Yom Kippur War in 73 because of ATGMs entry and success. They are still in the game, and I don't think tanks will be obsolete from drones.
Even though its ludicrously bulky, I'm supremely disappointed that the OICW rifle didn't become a thing. Its just such a cool concept. It has a very "Starship Troopers" esthetic.
An artillery war only works when neither side has air superiority. If you can’t take out arty with planes, they can rule the battlefield, as soon as the planes can fly they become irrelevant
Ah yes less forget about manpads, AAs, SAMs and surface-to-airs, drones, counter air, etc etc etc shall we. Also half of those are countered by ...... arty. Combine arms has always been all about war. We just adds dimensions to them.
Maybe the next war would be satelites weapons as our enemies drops a 1 ton tungsten rod on our heads.
You're failing to recognize how artillery equipment can be concealed with the environment, and can reposition to avoid exactly what you are talking about
Irrelevant is a gross exaggeration. Artillery is many times cheaper and can be used in bad weather.
@@maximepirard6171cost only matters when you’re not the US, and it can’t rain/snow all the time. As soon as the weather is clear the arty is getting destroyed.
Im not saying artillery is useless, I’m saying it takes a back seat when the skies are owned by one side.
@@johnnolan1752 Back seat is a more appropriate wording.
pls make longer (20+ minutes) content. i would really apprecieate that.
I definitely plan on experimenting with some longer videos!
Really cool to see you partner with Preston. He's a great guy.
Usually you get hints at what the best war will be but people don’t learn the large enough lessons.
The Ukrainian use of drones was going on for years in the Donbas and the mutual electronic warfare back and forth. This didn’t come out of nowhere. It was a capability slowly developed but then put into the mass scale after 2022
This is a very well made video
dank u
There are bipedal tanks that can fly being tested in top secret facilities somewhere in nevada im 100% sure.
Yeah, my local meth lab sent that dude flyyyyying went it popped. Looking forward to hearing progress on stabilising this slept on discovery
I heard rumors about a bipedal tank being designed by some scientist in a wheelchair somewhere in the Afghan mountains.
In Japan they're having teenagers pilot them, 100% true story
@@Justin_Taylorand a venomous massive manager is out looking for them
"But can you have seggs with them? I think we are overlooking that simple fact."
Artillery was more important to us in the coldwar, air power is something divisions will have to fight over.
I’m already seeing long range wired drones to avoid jamming which is just barely being rolled out…
I think Canada is doing some work with those. My concern would be the wire itself being disrupted by debris, and it literally drawing a line to your position. I’m sure people smarter than me are working on how to get around that.
@@Justin_Taylor Semi-autonomous drones could reduce required bandwidth similar to a human pilot, sending just the key information. Mass dispersed drone swarms could reduce vulnerability to jamming by acting as a network of short-range connections (in a loud environment you may get closer to someone to speak to them). Drones that blend into the natural environment (such as being disguised as birds and flying low) could store information on an internal drive and physically deliver it back to friendly forces. Targets that haven't moved (hopefully because they didn't realize they've been located) could be hit by artillery, while others could be observed simply to learn their behavior and assess their strength.
A wired drone sounds insane. Like it almost defeats the purpose. Unless...
@@cloudmaster182 Many ATGMs and torpedoes are wire-guided. Communication wires are commonly deployed between defensive positions. If your goal is just to put a camera atop a tree or building and have a radio-silent video feed, a tethered drone would be very useful.
@JWQweqOPDH that makes a lot more sense. Ig I was picturing something more offensive like the weaponized drones with guns or the ones that drop explosives, but tethered to a wire. You have showed me there CAN be a practical application
I think you are missing the overarching, common theme between drones, tanks, and artillery. Both sides in Ukraine are limited by defense production. In future peer conflict, the side that spins up its defense production fastest will win. We need to move away from the idea that when we need more shells/drones/tanks, we will need to build new factories. Defense production must become highly automated, and when the next peer conflict begins, it really does need to be as simple as pressing a button to turn on the mothballed robotic factory that spits out 5000 shells a day. Otherwise we're up against a billion people with a low standard of compensation and no regulatory oversight burden.
Huge factor of the US’s WWII war effort was how much we were producing things. It was like a motor line and we were out manufacturing everybody.
India will be a beast. China too.
**psychotic laughter**
“FOR THE EMPERAH!!”
*cue bolter and chainsword noises*
Great video! Tell Preston he's pretty.
Never forget though, War, war never changes.
The opening cutscene from Metal Gear Solid IV would disagree with you
War is like water, it’s all the same but completely different.
Or does it? Is war!
@@Justin_Taylor We still dont live in a world where every single military is a PMC
Air superiority is king, until we get into space then multidimensional superiority will be king
Doesn't work when the doctrine of the ebemy is *AA AA AA AA AA AA EVERYWHERE*
Yall make a really good combo. Love both channels.
It's just hard to predict anything in general. Educated guesses are the most we can do. Even mathematical models can be "useful for prediction" but never "prophetic"
The take away is that shotguns will literally fix every single problem 5:08
I think artillery and drones were underrated because we collectively forgot how good it is when you can hit them and they can’t hit you. We were too focused around hitting them first or having more armour but straight up not being there is great too.
I like the point that aircraft carriers overtook battleships but think it's also worth mentioning how it's unclear whether or not aircraft carriers will be the center of naval power in a near pear conflict. It's true that we don't have anything to replace their capability, but it's also true that we can't feasibly replace a ford carrier in a conflict. GWOT did give us practice in logistics, but possibly misleading practice given the difference in scale. We won't need ukraine levels of artillery in most conflict, but other weapons like shoulder fire rockets will be used more extensively and we are having issues increasing production. Replacing capabilities is important, but logistics win wars and it will be interesting and terrifying to see how well the US can adapt to sustained intensity
On the timeline of a war, we don't necessarily need to replace our carriers. If China goes one-for-one on carriers with us (unlikely) we still have eight, and shipyards don't exactly move - the US would have a much easier time knocking out China's ability to contest the sea than China would have knocking out the US's ability.
Honestly, the biggest problem with predicting what the next war will look like, is people always underestimate how much new tech makes previous tactics and weaponry obsolete.
The next war will be a lot less exciting than people think. It won’t be Vietnam with high tech gear, it won’t even be desert storm with high tech gear. It’ll be stealth fighters and drones destroying military infrastructure, small squads of infantry trying to hunt drone teams to clear a path for tanks, and most importantly, cyber warfare.
Almost every war since WWI, technology has made war less grandiose than what everyone expected at the time. WWI saw the end of the glorious cavalry charge. WWII saw the end of Battleships shooting big guns at each other. Vietnam showed that smaller units striking fast with helicopters was more effective than mobilizing an entire army to march in and capture the entire region. The gulf war showed that precision guided munitions and air to air missiles were far more effective than guns and unguided bombs. Ukraine is showing us that small drones are more effective at destroying armored vehicles, infrastructure, and morale than sending in a company of tanks.
That will never happen with nuclear armed opponents, the second stealth technology is used, it any shrewd country would immediately utilize their nuclear arsenal.
Stealth technology ironically will only be used to bully and route the most technologically inferior opponents of the middle east and nothing more.
I think some aspects of modern milsim gaming has actually increased the average citizens functional military knowledge
That's debatable.
You just think this because your internet echo chamber(s) are full of people with military knowledge. Go ask a random dude what combined arms warfare is and they won’t be able to give you an even rudimentary definition.
"it goes without saying that nothing Preston just said matters" got me so good 😂🤣🤣
I think part of it is that nobody knows what military capability any nation actually has. The US had the F-22 for almost 15 years before the public learned about it. It's still considered the best air superiority fighter in public knowledge, and it's 50 years old. Russia had the T-72 for almost 5 years before they actually showed it off. Next to nobody can tell you what any nation can ACTUALLY do, and thus can't predict how a war will happen.
Mech suits and power ARE dope!
Military RND has two goals, which I would argue explains this issue:
1. Solve new experienced problems.
2. Match or surpass what the other guy has.
Most military equipment is used as a deterrent. This in context of 1, 2 and cost indirectly dictates how new RND money is spent.
First Sea Lord Jackie Fisher predicted the start of WW1 (to the day!) over 5 yrs beforehand - something to do with battleships & the widening of the Kiel Canal. BUT...he followed up that astounding piece of prediction with a total "drop the ball" moment with his championing of the "Battle Cruisers", which got their asses handed to them by the Germans during their very first engagement.
As you say, this shit's real hard to anticipate...
There are two (or more) people who get a vote In how a conflict happens, which is a goodly part as to why a conflict is hard to predict… they do not have to play by your rules.
Research is the answer. We spent so much time and money. We build something, then scrap it. Then continue doing reseach it to improve it.
Oh... thought it said feat "Patrick Stewart" 😅. Pleased to discover a new channel and you bounced back from having your stuff stolen- respect!
Last week a livestream showed up on my TH-cam recommendations where there supposedly was a live video of a tank fighting in Ukraine - i was in shock how many people DIDN’T realise that it was ARMA 3 gameplay
Like bro, in a real war the enemy doesn’t glitch through walls…yet
The companies that design, test, and build weapons systems get paid more to retrofit a failure than to succeed in the first place. I suppose anytime a weapons system does not over run its budget, there is a shareholder lawsuit.
It was predicted, more or less accurately, by Stanislaw Lem. The rest just fall into the trap of routinely confusing MIC pitches to DoD (a commercial effort) for actual reason-based preparations
Another banger next big military channel love the new content.
Also how is everything going since the stuff got stolen
Stuff's pretty easy to replace. Still mourning a few lost t shirts but other than that we're back on our feet!
@@Justin_Taylor let’s go glad to hear that man, also I know you mostly making military content as of now but will u still be dropping some occasional purely philosophical topic vids cuz u also talked about ur huge interest in philosophy books so would want to hear some of ur views and Ik most of ur vids have never been yk like purely surrounding philosophy but often on ur vids such as one about the masculinity u certainly come off as a mind that trys to think for urself and critically when formulating ur opinion which in the world is not common considering how we just spew everything spoon fed to us. Not even that I agree with all ur opinions but still an interesting opinion to hear nonetheless
Like with most things in life, you don't have to be 100% right, you just have to be more right then the other guy :)
The conclusion killed me
I'm too old and too disgruntled to go back into the Army. Give me a mech suit, I'll reenlist tomorrow. I'm back, baby!
5:23 "William Lendrum Mitchell, said to be the father of the US airforce."
"He advocated for more focus on airpower at the time and correctly predicted how aircraft would play a vital role in future wars."
"Of course, the boomers at the time kept trying to silence him because they just wanted to make bigger battleships."
Can build anything indestructible but Everything breaks is my personal rule of thumb.
Mr. Taylor seems to have found the stride, these videos are getting better each iteration
Here because of the algo, subscribed because this was great video.
I love Preston.
CAS is one of the biggest take aways from Iraq and afghan. Our ability to coordinate and call in air strikes is a huge advantage is objectively much harder when dealing with insurgents as you don’t have established lines. Intelligence gathering is also much better now.
For those wondering which defense contractors to invest in, it's super easy. There are only 5 big ones worth mentioning, and 4 of those are not Boeing.
Do not pick Boeing.
The ending of this is hilarious
Like your videos, do you think you could do one on the conflict in Myanmar? Cuz the rebels seem to be winning but I'm not sure if that's because my sources are biased or not.
I actually wrote on that topic for Task and Purpose last year: th-cam.com/video/fG6li71t4Ko/w-d-xo.html
11:53 also i suspect we are going to start seeing "fighter drones" think you ali drone with beefier motors and probably some sort of fully automatic pistol strapped to it or possible a sawn off shot gun or maybe a clay more or hand grenade for the "im taking you with me variant"
I think power armor is
yes
I'm no expert at all, and not half as smart as Preston. But I've been saying something similar since the beginning: we don't need more artillery if we have what Ukraine doesn't: overwhelming air power.
The US won’t fight a peer vs peer war, though.
Domestically it would be impossible, to start.
No zoomer is dying for Israel or Taiwan.
@@deedeeramone34 That sounds like propaganda.
@@deedeeramone34*stares in the military being predominantly made up of zoomers at this point*
@@DefaultProphet As long as you keep them poor enough in debt, student loans, lack of housing and somehow make them think joining military to make that cash instead of revolting against the goverment, the rich, their neighboor and their dog then all is fine.
@ Not sure how that’s relevant
Necessity is still mother of invention
And only when the time comes you find whats necessary and what's excessive
i'm a little worried that aircraft carriers are going to be the battleships of the next war. Still super useful, but only if you can get them to where they need to be without getting beaten up. If someone's able to figure out a good cheap swarm drone with proper military capabilities (instead of Russian walmart knockoffs), I could see a scenario where our giant floating expensive cities could get sunk or damaged enough that they would have to return to base for repairs.
Look at the difference in the amount of AA for ships at the beginning of WWII compared to the end. We do have AA and anti missle capabilities on our ships, but if we're talking about small drones in large numbers, i'm not sure we'd be able to take out enough targets quickly enough to prevent stuff slipping through. Which could end up having carriers act like the Yamato in WWII, too expensive to risk losing but also too important to leave in port
Our narrator mentions that a firm developed retrofits to up-armor HUMVEEs. Our narrator fails to mention the armor retrofit did not armor the UNDERSIDE of the HUMVEE - the part that was vulnerable to mines and IEDs.
I have always said that tanks should have auto cannon. A tank with a radar guided auto cannon, would be able to take out drones with easy, which would restore them to being useful again. Something small like the man-portable battlefield surveillance radar would work best.
Enjoyed the video up until what I felt was an abrupt end. It would be good if you could sum up the premise of the video or definitely answer (in your opinion) the question your video proposes.
Why we suck at predicting future war - because it is dynamic and ever changing. That's a gross oversimplification but you get the idea.
Anyway keep them coming. They are interesting and you obviously do a lot of research to be well informed.
Cheers
2:37 What is he saying here after "forest camo"? It sounds like he's saying "the pitopic army", which doesn't make any sense. I couldn't find anything looking up "patopic" or "potopic" either. Am I missing something?
"Atomic Army". The concept of the Atomic Battlefield in the 50s where soldiers would have to be equipped to fight in nuclear environments.
@majorborngusfluunduch8694 Thanks
Real question. 10 years from now mech inf now uses actual mechs. Do you reactivate?
I've given a lot of thought to this and thinking about conceptual art and how many games and movies depict mechs, I'm pretty sure the only way they're viable is if they're maximum 15 feet tall (more often less), very hypermobile and with targeting systems that surpass human abilities and the ability to field gear that is far too heavy for crews to carry on their own and able to traverse terrain that is impossible for things such as a HMMWV.
Basically they'd be nuclear powered terrifying militarized hypermobile slendermen, as their mobility and ability to use some degree of cover would have to be their greatest defense (along with perhaps being equipped with electronic warfare equipment).
Also, when are we going to get a battle drill for reacting to a drone? You would think this is something we might wanna start working on.
I belive hard kill active protection systems will become bigger if nothing else at least towards drones
you can only defend from what you can comprehend. And at scale, the ability to adapt offers diminishing returns. It's also because the same reason that in the cyber security consulting world, companies are unwilling to front the cost to defend against a 'fearmongering hypothetical' today that will be in their networks tomorrow. Also because A-10's
12:05 This notion that indirect fire is not the future is down right wrong. Artillery shells CAN be maneuvered after fire. It is not cannon balls anymore. They can be fitted with rockets or ramjets to increase range, internal fins (think stinger or similar control fins, but they go into the body rather than being on the outside) etc etc. Also maybe look up new Nato publications in regards to how Nato is setting up the future to both deal with needed production capacity when needed and currently to support Ukraine.
Why make tube arty do a missiles job? Arty is great at being cheap and still effective, missles are better at reaching further and being more precise. The excalibur round is nearly as expensive as a whole himars rocket with more range and 10x payload.
The US never really had to fight a war without air superiority, with most being fought with air supremacy. Now there's obviously a good reason for that, but that doesn't mean any conflict the US gets itself in can just be solved by throwing JDAMs at it, with little focus to ground-based fires. Just look how expensive the GWOT was, with most of the cost being CAS or PGMs - now imagine having to do that at thrice the scale and with numerous times over more enemy capacity at air defense. One lesson that can be taken out of Ukraine is that you need alternatives to CAS for situations where the airspace is too contested or the priority of the target is too low to risk an F-35. Amping up the production of artillery tubes and shells is probably not the best idea, as it's just playing to the enemy's advantage in that area and going down an attritional pathway which the US would probably lose (China or Russia don't have to worry that much about casualties impacting the home front - we do), but we already see Army brass playing around with the idea of integrating MRLS and HIMARS into brigade level and using them to shape the battlefield in situations where the Air Force isn't capable of doing that.
If you've won the air war, you practically won the entire war. But if you didn't, then you need the tools necessary to win it through other means. And however powerful the USAF is, it's not a pistol in rock-paper-scissors - there have been situations where (in Vietnam for example) a force that's ten times less powerful in the air department was able to give us a bloody nose and mitigate that massive advantage. Similarly in Ukraine, where a force with numerous times less jets and a couple legacy air defense systems effectively defended it's airspace against, all things considered, a pretty powerful air force. We need to be ready to wage a war that's different from Desert Storm.
My only major point of disagreement comes on artillery. There's no such thing as an army that is not artillery-centric. Fires from air support are simply not comparable operationally. Not having that capability to compete in traditional artillery, putting shells down range, means we cannot fight the type of war we may find ourselves in. No one 'wants' to get into a bogged-down slow-maneuvering war. But we will, eventually. Writing it off as 'not our focus' comes at our peril. Come up against a serious air-defense network and you just can't get fires on.
Can we up armor the bass pro pyramid?
Aircraft carriers are the new Battleships.
What if you fail to gain air supiority ?
In a world of uninterceptable hypersonic missiles, an aircraft carrier in nothing but a liability. Before the enemy is even within operational range of your aircraft, they've put multiple missiles into your ship and sunk it.
0:19 I'm pretty sure they did hire psychics. It was called remote viewing.
The biggest factor no one talks about is air power. Both sides are weak or don't use it effectively. The us will use on large scale.
Sir your tank saviour complex is showing
bump - your shit is so good
You a real one
Metal Gear!
What does COIN mean?
Counterinsurgency
@@matthewjones39why does the military make everything a cool acronym?
All of them
5:28 Drachinifel intro
I was thinking it too!
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. - Mike Tyson
12:32 gonna be really interesting to see artillery delivered drones lol which isn't a joke i suspect that will happen great for intel gathering basically a star shell but with a drone instead great way to get intel and live feed from 40 km into the enemys airspace without having to fly the drone there
I think you need to break it down to the bare fundamentals. Cyber-warfare is disrupting supply lines and sieging cities. Non-cavalry replacing cavalry sounds absurd, don't lead your horses to archers.
11:49 prediction .. you going to start seeing ciws system on tanks .. something along the lines of a automatic shot gun probably over time this will expand into a hard kill styem to take out atoms drone infantry r[pg or basically anything it can track and hit think the crows system but linked to a lidar or radar system for anti air defence in the mean time expext to see light shorrad maybe somethign like the vads those probably based on what ever the currect ifv platform is my personal bet is something like the cv90 with its 400mm but with increased gun elevation a radar or lidar and increased traversing and elevation gearing thing cv 90 with the turret replaced with the dardo ciws
In future wars everyone will be wearing tinfoil hats to protect their neurallinks from hostile EW
7:00 hey bro, I have never heard someone else say it’s a bitch&a half to fix something. U got marine parents?
Great video boys! Really interesting analysis. I came to your channel through Preston and just subbed. Nice content, keep it up! 🫡🇺🇲
Gotta spend every last penny on Lockheed Martin
Except we have no data whatsoever to support the notion that aircraft carriers are in fact the penultimate form of naval power.
Sure, the nuclear ACC's fielded by the US allow for unprecedented and unrivaled force projection. But to date they have been fielded against zero adversaries with any ability to threaten them.
These vessels and their attached fleets and capabilities have never faced anything that could even dream of posing a threat to them. We don't have the first incling of how they would fare against a legitimate peer threat.
That goes for everything we have.
The conflict in Ukraine has shown the world a whole new regime of warfare and yet, it's not a real peer conflict and everybody knows it.
Because the prediction is done by government employees.... Not that hard that they fail.