Is the Bangkok Condo Market Oversupplied? What the Data Says
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 มิ.ย. 2024
- I go over real estate data in Thailand to determine whether the Bangkok condo market is oversupplied.
Looking for property in Thailand? We'll help you find a place 👉 tally.so/r/w2EBx9
00:00 Is the Bangkok condo market oversupplied?
01:17 Supply - demand analysis 2022
05:09 Leftover inventory 2016-2022
06:26 Supply - demand analysis first half of 2023
08:31 How desirable are second-hand condos?
10:15 Do condos in Bangkok increase in value?
Had some trouble uploading that slideshow. Here's the sources:
New project launches in Bangkok+ 2022
www.lws.co.th/post/ลุมพินี-วิ...
Recorded transactions in Bangkok+ 2022
www.reic.or.th/Upload/สรุปสถา...
New project launches in Bangkok+ First Half 2023
www.lws.co.th/post/แอล-ดับเบิ...
Recorded transactions in Bangkok+ First Half 2023
www.reic.or.th/Upload/สถานการ...
Second hand condos on the market nationwide Q1 2021 - Q2 2023
www.reic.or.th/Upload/สถานการ...
Knight Frank Prime Global Cities Index (PGCI)
kfmap.asia/research/prime-glo...
This needs more summaries, or a clearer message of what the numbers mean since we’re not sitting in front of the spreadsheets ourselves.
Thank you for the feedback. I did my best to write in just enough English annotations on the slides while trying to avoid dragging out the video too long.
Excellent research and report brother. Thank you.
Much appreciated
Great Content as usual! Very informative. Thank you Khun Jett
Thank you so much!
If to buy condo for living in bangkok is good, but never expect to sale or rent it out easily. The supply is too much, both new and 2nd hand.
Hi Jett,I'll be in bangkok this month. would be love to see some condo options. Any suggestion on projects i should keep an eye on?
Hi Jett, thanks for the great video as always. I really enjoy the data based ones as it’s hard to access as a non Thai speaker.
Just wondering on your thoughts on the accuracy of the Knight Frank report, and how they are measuring this data? An increase in shanghai home prices in the past three months is hard to believe.
Also, how do you think Thailand demographic challenges are going to affect the property market in the mid to long term? With a very low birth rate and a decreasing labor pool I would imagine this will put downwards pressure on the market?
You can see this video where I address exactly what you're talking about th-cam.com/video/n1Dvo1N2L5A/w-d-xo.html
Nice to see some real data. Other agents out there aren’t doing this so I applaud your work.
Thank you. I do my best.
Excellent break Jett. We have just bought a Condo in Samut Prakan with the intention to be our last residential purchase. Great price, great location and a brand new complex. It’s 5 star no doubt. Your summary is in great detail, thank you
Sounds like a nice place. Hope you enjoy it!
great research and reporting, thank you.
Much appreciated
Thanks for this. A question that has been nagging at me is whether condos in thailand retain their value as they age or do they depreciate. In the areas i've been looking at, it's common to see older and bigger condos much cheaper than newer but smaller condos in the same vicinity. I suppose management, build quality and maintenance plays a big role as well? Any developers to stick to or avoid? A video on this would be nice.
Wonderful overview, also worth mentioning that this is Thai quota and Foreign quota mixed. The Foreign quota separated would show much steeper increase as the demand is so high now.
Yes. I think I would like to go deep into the foreign market specifically in an upcoming video.
Good work. My perception of the second-hand condo market is that there was a time in the past that local buyers preferred to buy new, but that their attitude has changed in a climate where not buying secondhand might mean not being able to buy at all.
Very true.
Good video as always :)
Just thought I'd let you know you might want to rethink your working relationship with siam legal. Applied for an elite visa through them/you because I like your content and thought why not giving something back through it. Everything went smooth up to the point of sending the application. Ever since there's radio silence both via email & line on the simplest 2-3 questions lol
Jettgunther.com scroll to the bottom. Shoot me an email with the email you used to apply. We’ll look into it.
@@JettGunther thank you, really appreciate it but no worries, I already hit up another legal office in regards to my questions, just wanted to let you know since I am sure I am not the only one.
Keep up the good content! :)
How does condo rent increase relate to real estate value increase?
Great information. Were the Knight-Frank numbers based on local currencies? or basis USD? Most local ccys have tanked vs the USD (including the THB), so the +4% gain would be offset by a -3% depreciation in the Baht (if the index is basis local ccy).
Great point and I’m not sure. You can see the original report here content.knightfrank.com/research/323/documents/en/prime-global-cities-index-q2-2023-10499.pdf
@@JettGunther It says the indices track nominal prices in local ccys (at the top of the report). I actually think Thai real estate is a great long term investment but the short term volatility of the THB and concurrent strength of the USD sort of make it a timing game...interesting times. Thanks for following up on my query.
@christopherbobin4268 at 37thb to the dollar right now, quite a good rate to get in
can u make a video around just what thai buyers are purchasing in the new and 2nd hand market? which areas? cost? property types? how this traction pace trending?
Good idea. Let's see if I can find publicly available data on that.
I see some units for locals, some units for foreigners,
Do locals get the best view? best price?
It's a common misconception that condos pre-allocate units for foreigners and Thais. When a condo is launched, anything is fair game in the beginning but once all foreign buyers own up to 49% of the total livable area of a condo, that's the limit. In order for a new foreigner to be able to own a unit there, a previous foreigner will need to have sold out his unit.
Using data in this manner, especially when estimating value, can be misleading. It's a misconception to assume that each unit rented or bought equates to a direct gain of one unit sold or rented. In reality, when someone moves into a unit, they might be leaving another 'second-hand' unit behind, making the data change neutral. Alternatively, they might have been homeless or from a different region not covered in our data sample. It's essential to focus on net positive or negative demand, rather than static figures. Speculative value assessments don't directly tie into the core supply-demand dynamics, which can make the demand/supply matter confusing.
If 200,000 units consistently remain vacant year after year, and tens of thousands of new units are introduced annually, the crucial question is: where is the demand originating from?
Thank you for the perspective. We can only do our best with the free public data that is at hand and a lot of nuances will remain unclear. What we can see is inventory remains steady, secondary market listings remains steady, while number of transactions and transaction value exceed the number and value of new supply in each period that was sampled.
Would also like to note that people often underreport the value of their transactions at the Land Office in order to pay less in transaction fees, so that's a nice factor to consider for overall property value growth.
Data is strange, while Bangkok is "beating" say, Wellington, the resale value of Wellington is something Thai investors can only dream about.
good effort but the analytical methodology is rather weak the concept of using an average is a complete waste of time
you need to look at price segments the entire appreciation over time has been in the core center silom langsuan appreciation of 100% in ten years all the other periferal areas 0 So the issue is buy quality which now is very expensive or buy crap and it does not go up Good try Jett you are terrific marketer of your services but this analysis is for novices
We are making sense of data that is available for free to the public. I'm doing my best to close the gap between speculation based on zero data and speculation based on some data. Speaking of which - where did you get that number of 100% versus 0? Please share us the link. Otherwise, they're just baseless shots in the dark which is exactly what I'm trying to move the community away from.
The sources I've cited and linked in the video description offer more data beyond what is covered in this video. Feel free to look at it and make your own inferences, if you can read Thai that is.
But in the meantime, if you're not willing to pay thousands of dollars for a PDF from a research firm and are just watching free videos of other people's work, being constructive rather than condescending would have made for a better dialogue.
Unfortunately, these data are moment in time data and do not answer the most important questions about the future. Here are some important questions people need to answer. Who are buying the properties? 49% of the condos are available for foreigners to buy, and most of those buyers are capital fleeing from China and Russia. Also, there are a lot of regional speculators (SE Asian speculators). How long will this last? Not forever.
Also, Thailand's population is about to top out in a few years. The population will then turn down like in Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China. In other words, the demand from local Thais will top out in a decade. Once everyone has a home, who will buy a new one? Will Thailand be like China where there are 2x the homes as there are people in the country? Thailand home builders cannot overcome demographics. Just remember that the 51% that are allocated to Thais are bought up by locals that need property, speculators, and foreigners trying to circumvent the restrictions.
These two issues worry me about the future resale of property here. At one time, condos were averaging over 1 mill USD in China. Then one day, that nation woke up and realized there were 2x the properties built as there are people in China. Look it up. There is a reason Evergrande and Country Garden are in deep poo poo.
Thank you for the perspective. Check out this video where I address some of the issues you mentioned:
Trends and Challenges for Thailand's Real Estate Market
th-cam.com/video/n1Dvo1N2L5A/w-d-xo.html