Playoff changes | Which stars have improved or declined the most?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 มิ.ย. 2024
- Who is the biggest choker in NBA history? Who is the most clutch player? These are common questions, but what do the stats have to say? How does Michael Jordan fare? Is Steph Curry really worse in the postseason? What about LeBron James and Kobe Bryant? This video looks at All-Star players over the years who have seen the largest statistical changes between the regular season and the playoffs using a variety of box score and non box score analytics.
NB: All playoff changes in this video are minute-weighted.
Support at Patreon: / thinkingbasketball
Book: www.amazon.com/Thinking-Baske...
Podcast: player.fm/series/thinking-bas... or at www.stitcher.com/podcast/ben-...
Website: www.backpicks.com
Twitter: @elgee35
Ben Taylor is the author of Thinking Basketball, a Nylon Calculus contributor, creator of the Backpicks Top 40 series & host of the Thinking Basketball podcast.
-----
STATS
-Backpicks BPM is a proprietary model that focuses on player skill instead of situational value. It is box score only.
-PIPM is a hybrid model (box score and plus-minus) that "luck-adjusts" plus-minus data (regresses FT% and 3pt%) to account for noise and is more sensitive to a player's role/fit on a given team. Created by @JacobEGoldstein
-Augmented Plus-Minus (AuPM) is a hybrid model designed to mimic Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) using the box score as a stabilizer: www.backpicks.com/2017/09/18/a...
-Box creation is an estimate of the number of shots a player created for his teammates per 100 possessions. fansided.com/2017/08/11/nylon...
-Offensive load is an estimate of the percentage of plays a player is "directly involved" in on offense that lead to shots, fouls or turnovers. It can be thought of as "usage" with a playmaking component. www.backpicks.com/2017/10/16/o...
-Passer rating is an estimate of a player's passing ability on ~a 1-10 scale.
Player art by @CrumpledJumper
Music by Jordan Ciurcovich (Forest) - กีฬา
![แข่งแลกของ 1 วัน!! ของใครแพงสุดชนะ!! [Ver.2024]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/joRT59ilPHg/mqdefault.jpg)
Big takeaway for me: Players don't change *that* much in the playoffs, but enough that two similar regular-season players can clearly separate if they go in opposite directions in the postseason. I'll get into overall level of performance in future videos...
I'd like to know where does Wilt Chamberlain ranks here. He has bad reputation in terms of playoffs production which (I don't agree with that).
Also, Kareem?
MJ the Goat again on top ❤💪
Marcin Klempka doesn’t exactly answer your question, but he wrote on his website that Wilt’s team’s offense decline the most of any all-time great in the playoffs and his teams defenses improve the most of any all-timer
Yes please look at Wilt. The greatest player of all time.
The only qualm I have with your rating system is that some matchups are just very exploitable for certain teams. I'm not sure if measuring an opposing team just by their regular season DRtg is enough. For example, some of the Lakers of the early 00s turned up their defense in the playoffs and they were a completely different animal. I'm not sure how you'd assess this in a stat, but I just don't know if the way you currently are adjusting efficiency numbers is completely valid.
But thanks so much for all these videos, I'm truly an avid fan of this channel so keep up the awesome work!
This is a really underrated channel by the way
HØØPĚŘ Ř this is the best channel
Not underrated, but undiscovered because of how recently it was made. That's my personal opinion.
This channel actually has had well thought out videos instead of "10 REASONS WHY MICHAEL JORDAN ISN'T HUMAN!!!!!"
@@BlueGrovyle true he's gained a well deserved 51k subs in 3 months. thats an achievement not underrated lol
I swear he’s a smart guy that knows what he’s taking about
Someone should tweet this at Reggie Miller. He'll become a hard cord analytics guy once he realizes this stuff makes him look like a GOAT candidate.
Reggie is overrated already please don't do that
If Ben (the maker of this video) saw ur comment, he would be very disappointed. While yeah he improved in the postseason he was still not better than most of the players mentioned in the video because he was way less impressive than the others in the regular season. Plus his scoring and efficiency are the things that increased notably and there are much more to the game than just that (the maker of the video would tell u the same) www.backpicks.com/2018/01/18/backpicks-goat-29-reggie-miller/ here is a full analysis of reggie's career if u aren't interested. And the make of this analysis, yes u guessed it, the make of this video
@The Green Pill Mindset u are right everyone has his own preferences, and yeah I think Reggie is a great player but I don't think he is a top-30 player all time (especially if we are talking about all-timers peaks) and I totally disagree with u that scoring and clutchness are the most important things to define a great player and that nothing comes close, because I think defence and creation are as important (think of Nash and Bill Russell who clearly had a better career's than reggie).
As for the maker of this video, yeah obviously he's not a god but I think his perspective is valuable because he actually studied those players games and career's (Reggie in this case) and he provides everything he says with evidence.
@The Green Pill Mindset
"Scoring and being clutch in the playoffs are the very things that define a great player."
According to you. And it's honestly not a very objective set of criteria.
Isaac In a conversation on who’s the better post-season performer “Scoring and being clutch in the playoffs is what determines a great player.” Meaning this statement here is extremely essential when determining who’s better playoff performer than who. And nobody gives a single care about the regular season. Players and fans don’t even take the regular season as seriously as much anymore. Most players play at their absolute best when it comes to playoffs time.
Not surprised about Jordan, at all.
One interesting stat that I like to mention about Jordan was that when his team had home court advantage, his teams went 24-0 in the playoffs. When his opponent had home court advantage, his teams went 6-7. If you use home court as a (weak) indicator of choking vs. upping your game, Jordan's teams never choked, and pulling off nearly as many upsets as losses you were expected to take is pretty impressive in itself.
Olajuwon is so underrated as a player.
Every time I learn a new fact about Jordan I'm even more impressed and dumbfounded. I don't think there is any other athlete in which the eye test, narrative, and stats all reinforce each other so perfectly. He looks like the greatest player ever, he looks like the greatest playoff performer and clutch performer ever, he's considered by most to be the greatest player ever, and then both his regular stats and advanced stats just back it up. That man is just simply the GOAT and I about anyone in my lifetime will come along and take away that mantle from him. It's absurd.
What even is the eye test. Because I always see people talk about it but I don’t think it’s that valuable. The eye test is pretty much only based on your opinion and cannot be backed up or quantified.
@@montagehq9872 Eyetest is pretty much someone liking a person, has no real effect or value imo.
@@Sam-tj9np the eye test actually stands for strengths and weaknesses to their game. The only real weakness you can say that Michael Jordan had was his three-point shooting which was League average at the time.
Everybody else has a few. Larry Bird was unathletic and had mediocre defense. Magic Johnson had straight up bad defense. LeBron has inconsistent defense and free throw shooting. Shaq was dog s*** at free throws. Kobe was not efficient etc etc
Wilt
Ever since NBA & ABA merged, there're only 3 times that a 3-peat happened. Jordan had 2 of them. The rest was produced by Shaq & Kobe. It took the likes of Shaq & Kobe, both top 10 ever mind you, to do one. Jordan had 2 by himself. Each and every angle we look at it, Jordan just blew Lebron the wannabe outta water.
Another layer of reinforcement for MJ. People just do not understand how bad that dude was. The Greatest of All Time
No matter how we analyze him, he always ends up being the GOAT. He's the one constant all basketball fans can agree on.
Everyone knows it except Bronsexuals
I thought he was good not bad???
Burn Er the creator of the video disagrees
I mean the dude who made the video in his analysis had Kareem over him and I believe by now also LeBron over him.
Jordan is the GOAT only if we ignore longevity.
I always look forward to your videos, incredible stuff!
As a Steph Curry fan, this video gets me furious about Donatas Montejunas sweat all over again. But great stuff as always Ben
I think that with with Harden it doesn't help that the Rockets' obsession with "efficient" scoring and three pointers makes their offense incredibly predictable, and I feel that lots of NBA defenses are going to scout you over the course of a seven games series if you play every possession basically the same way.
The same rockets system is what puts him on the " one of the greatest scorers ever " list to begin with . Imagine players like Lebron , Durant , Jordan , Kobe in the same system .
That's what happens when a GM does nothing but look at and analyze advanced stat sheets in order to construct a roster. Stats are a tool to be used, but not to be used by.
@@nickzervas4937
It doesn't matter lol
@@nickzervas4937 because defenders are afraid to defend him.
Yet the Rockets could have won in 2018 against the Warriors if CP wasn't injured (just a what if, and that series was honestly close). I'm not a fan of heliocentric offensive approaches, but basically, unless your team has five awesome defenders, Harden (and CP) is likely to cook against the relatively inferior defender. It's the ultimate "we are coming at you and stop us if you can" approach, and they don't care about predictability if they believe even the Dubs can't stop them.
Playoff Hakeem is nuts, 1.4 for pretty much his entire stretch of greatness. I remember seeing a list of the elimination games he played in, not a SINGLE bad game when it mattered. Some of the box scores were insane.
Great video! Reinforces why Reggie Miller is a Hall of Famer and my favorite player of all-time. He would always flip the switch once the playoffs started. And he did it against great teams with Hall of Famers of their own.
Micah Goodner facts
Love these videos, man. Thoughtfully researched and written with great production values. My only need is that I wish there were more of them!
I've already watched all your videos (including the newest one.) Now I'm rewatching some for fun and I gotta say. I can tell you had a very specific visualization of what these videos you wanted to make would look like. From the music, editing, grueling statistics, and inviting thumbnails. You took that fine idea and made (what I believe is) exactly what you wanted to make.
Behind the scenes it must be so much more demanding than some comment on youtube can summarize it up to be. Basically I think you had a dream and executed it perfectly. Not to long ago this youtube channel popped up but already you have 139,000 subscribers. That's a lot. Already you are one of the best basketball youtubers. Your work is wholly unique and provides a wonderful way of looking at basketball. Through the scientific process, through analyzing the analytics. You make those numbers fun for people who might've never been interested in them.
I love your videos and love to see that you've succeeded and continue to succeed. The subscribers may have come relatively quickly but we all know that doesnt mean less work was involved to get there. Your videos are amazing and I'll always continue to watch them, I'm sure many others will too. Keep it up like we know you will and thanks for making content that's educational yet entertaining AND has to do with one of the best sports on earth!
Thanks Ben!!
How did Dirk come out in all of this?
Yeah I was looking for him throughout the video
Middle of pack overall. No change from 01-07, but big improvement in 08-11 postseason (I've discussed this before in my GOAT profile on him.)
@@ThinkingBasketball Where can I find your Dirk GOAT profile? TIA
@@chickenmanoktae www.backpicks.com/2018/02/26/backpicks-goat-18-dirk-nowitzki/
@@koenigsblauerdaniel Thank you, man
This channel is great. Love the in depth analysis and I love how you take all the variables into account keep up the good work
Everyone Forgets ISIAH THOMAS. After Magic the best PG of the 80's/early 90's. Dude was an absolute animal.
Another stellar production that gets granular with the metrics, telling a fuller and more comprehensive story. Great work with this!
Super interesting video man I liked this a lot great work man
Also still waiting for the podcast on Spotify :)
It should be there tomorrow.
Thanks for this video, that was pretty great as always. I would like to say a video focued more on performances than changes and which players had the greatest post seasons of all time. Thanks again
The most comprehensive knowledge of basketball on TH-cam keep it up !
Love your channel man! Keep doing what your doing!
honestly the effort put into this analysis by mapping and merging data is incredible. you are industry material.
This seems like it took alot of work, good job!
Really enjoying your channel! Keep it up man!
How would the 2019 Western Conference Finals change Steph's metrics?
I mean 36/7/6 in a 4 game sweep def gotta change something lol
Great content man! Falling in love with your channel. Thank you!
This channel is amazing! Subscribed 👍
great content, just what I needed to hold me over between chart parties
This channel is sooooooooo under rated. Keep up the good work !!
Marvelous work my friend, congratulations o/
For players who nearly always play in 1-2 Round playoff runs it’s far easier to have an increase in production / good box score statistics due to shorter amount of rounds/games played. Such as T-Mac, Gervin, and Chris Paul. On top of that, T-Mac and CP3 rarely faced 60-win teams or lost to eventual NBA Finalists / champions. The one time Chris Paul played 3 rounds in 2018, he averaged his least assists in any playoff run. The one time he played a 60-win team (2012 Spurs adjusted for 82 games) he shot his worst FG% in any series at 37% with 4.5 TOpg. The one time he lost to an eventual NBA Finalist/Champion up to 2018 in the Warriors, he shot his 2nd-worst FG% in any series at 41% and his least APG in any series at 4.6.
Playing a small number of games/rounds in all pre-Rocket playoff runs and avoiding 60-win teams / eventual NBA Finalists in nearly all playoff series is a huge factor in why his statistical performance looks good on the box score. But as he saw he fell flat statistically in the 2 series he did face a 60-win or Finals/Title team. Emphasizing how padded and protected his playoff statistics have been under short 1-2 round runs against easier opponents.
Generally not drastic declines and improvements as expected based on player reputations.
Great to see your channel growing, keep up with the excellent work!
great analisis !!!
Real defence start in playoffs, should drop stats a little because teams focus in double mark stars players..
But everyone also plays more so it’s not that simple.
Great vid
Ben, first and foremost. Always appreciate how you did into context of stats. It's a TON more manual work (and manual research), but is incredibly valuable and it shows in the insights you're able to pull out.
Aggregate grouping - seasonal or career?
Did you measure season to season, then an aggregate numbers? e.g. Wilt Chamberlain (youth vs older) profiles two entirely different players in how they were used (and well, decided how to play). Also, year to year changes like adding KD to Warriors affecting usage/shots/etc. I know you mentioned BPM of 3.0+ as filter. But wasn't sure where you did your aggregation.
Injury affects on season avg's
e.g. Wilt Chamberlain missed most of 1970 season. Happy Hairson was happy to see this as he avg'd 20 ppg (39 mpg) in the regular season. Wilt came back and Happy wasn't all that happy anymore, averaging 8 ppg (18.5 mpg) in the playoffs. Elgin Baylor also lost ~ 6 ppg in the playoffs (21.1 ppg/p36 RS vs 18.1 ppg/p36 Playoffs), West lost 3 ppg/p36 in playoffs too. 1970 Lakers avg's 113.7 ppg in RS, 114 in playoffs. So, as I expected, star numbers dropped and distributions of playoff #'s went to players 4-8 and shifted from top 2-3 guys. (for a few teams I spot checked)
Looking more at 2016 and 2018 for Steph Curry:
Also, for Steph Curry, do his low ast %'s hurt him more in '16 and '18 than anything?
Perhaps also interesting, missing the 2018 SAS series for Steph may have helped his offensive numbers as Spurs #3 in defense (www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2018.html). Skipping out on Danny Green and Dejounte Murray probably helped him more than hurt him. Also regular season (2g) he didn't do very well vs them. www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01/gamelog/2018
Other Warriors:
Klay had a stupid good 2016 playoffs, his 2017 probably really hurt him -- darn right awful.
Draymond, as with many others, e.g. Horry. I do expect their numbers to go up. It's how I'd coach if I were a playoff NBA team. I want Dray to beat us. I want 4th, 5th best players to take more shots than usual.
Player types most affected by playoffs and who I expected to do best:
I was expecting a certain type of player to emerge in the RS vs Playoffs comparison. The isolation scorer/playmaker. e.g. Jordan & Harden types. Durant more than Curry, etc. Harden bit, kinda or perhaps, flipped that on it's head as well as Reggie Miller being so high. The Reggie Miller vs Steph Curry also didn't fit well as both primarily relied upon lots and lots of screens to get open. Perhaps shot release height + player height also factors here, altho, Bird, another shooter with said qualities dropped a bit. And you already adjusted for opponent defense. Maybe injuries during the year affecting numbers in regular season as well? e.g. Wilt missed games in that 1970 regular season, but came back for playoffs.
This is my favorite basketball video of all-time. THANK YOU for adding context.
Keep up the good work. Love the content!
This is terrific. I would love to see charts containing the overall playoff value of these players compared to replacement players, and other star players. I suspect that the stars who declined the most are still very good. You would expect the best regular season performers to make the list, because they have a lot more value to lose. Also would be cool to exclude stars and see which role players stepped up the most in the playoffs.
Great job with the data!! We cannot forget, though, that it's not only about the opponents strength, for we know that in the playoffs there are better teams, and better defences, but you have to compare also your teammates data, and you did. But then we have to think that sometimes a very effective team in defending could leave very little to for example the opponents front court but leave a lot of space to the guards on the perimeter, and if we are analyzing guards with amazing 3 shooting, then maybe they could have better games, with better stats, than when they played against some teams who appeared to be much weaker.
This is not to say the job you've done is useless, on the contrary, it's incredibly precious, given that we have to always weight those stats with many little factors..!
And this is something that many people wouldn't do, because they like big numbers so much, that will always think "ok but he has 37 points" and they forget that maybe playing this way that dude made his team play worse..
For ex. a couple of days ago I watched the last 3 games of the 2000 series Lakers blazers, and sabonis had really small numbers, however he did an incredible job against prime Shaq, and I don't know who else could have kept Shaq to less than 20points. So sabonis was top class in those games, but if you checked the stats you would have thought he was a bad player!
I just looked at Michael Jordan’s playoff numbers. I mean I knew that they were going to look insane. But they were way more insane than I’d ever imagine. Also just the consistency of his performance in the playoffs throughout his career. I suggest all of you go check them out too.
Really nice analysis, and the Player art is really cool. Crumpled Jumper is a true artist.
This is really interesting. I love this channel.
Would love to see more around playoff performance across different eras. Also, would love to see a deep dive on GOAT candidates
I think you should do the same with teams. Which team have improved or decline the most in playoffs? Maybe then compare in relation with this players. That would be awesome. Keep the good work.
Best statics knowledge I've ever seen!
@Tyler Holt he probably meant statistics.
This is a great topic. And it is handled magnificently.
Not surprised about MJ at all, GOAT.
Anyone that saw him play wouldn't need it explained.
But Ben Taylor (guy making this video) has Kareem as his GOAT and has said LeBron recently surpassed him?
@@hppern3971 really? Can i get the link?
@anthony smith thank you
The irony is Thinking Basketball puts his career behind MJ and KAJ.
Props to CrumpledJumper for the fantastic cartoon art. I LoLed at Harden.
Love the analysis.
Bo basicly no matter how you cut it, MJ is an absolute monster. Despite already being at the top with his regular season numbers, he is also the player with the best increase in production when it matters the most. Though I am surprised Kawhi isn't here, considering he deosn't really try in the regular season and is a playoff monster.
so reggie miller becomes 6'7 mvp curry in the playoffs nd he still couldn't beat mj
Goes to show how dominant Mj was , many game 7s against My Pacers , they could never pull it off though ..
Steph at the very least has the benefit of versatile talented players and even a guy like Durant. Don't tell me Reggie played with the kind of talent to beat out MJ in the playoffs when you look at that Bulls roster.
@@t4d0W
1998 Pacers:
It was a very deep and balanced team.
*Reggie Miller HoF.*
*Chris Mullin HoF ( age 34 ).* - An experienced veteran.
*7"4 Rik Smits - 1x All-star.*
*Mark Jackson - 1x All-star, 1x Assists Leader.*
*6"10 Dale Davis - 1x All-star.*
*6"9 Antonio Davis - 1x All-star.*
Both were very athletic and good players.
*6"10 Derreck McKey - 2x All-Defensive Team.*
He was one of the best Defenders in the league. He was guarding Michael Jordan.
*Jalen Rose, Travis Best.*
An older and weaker version ( Without Antonio Davis ) of this team was able to win 2 games againt the Lakers ( Kobe, Shaq and Clen Rice ) in the 2000 Nba Finals.
@@allanhouston6759 not a single person you listed except Reggie was better than KD, Klay or Draymond
This is literally the most underrated basketball channel ever.
Scoring-wise, Wilt has the biggest fall going from 30.1 ppg in the regular season down to 22.5 in the playoffs.
you're right but Wilt purposely lowered his offensive numbers in the end of his carrer though , his fall wouldn't be as massive if he kept scoring more during his decline
@@warkunitale The end of his career isn't exclusive to the playoffs, just as the beginning of his career isn't exclusive to the regular season. In the same year that he averaged 50 ppg in the regular season, it went down to 35 ppg in the playoffs.
@@jp3813 of course , but his drop off in scoring in the playoffs is amplified by his reduced role as a scorer by the end of his career
@@jp3813 you know what nevermind , i take back what i said
@@warkunitale Same thing goes for the regular season.
'60: RS = 37.6, PS = 33.2
'61: RS = 38.4, PS = 37.0
'62: RS = 50.4, PS = 35.0
'63: RS = 44.8, PS = N/A
'64: RS = 36.9, PS = 34.7
'65: RS = 34.7, PS = 29.3
'66: RS = 33.5, PS = 28.0
'67: RS = 24.1, PS = 21.7
'68: RS = 24.3, PS = 23.7
'69: RS = 20.5, PS = 13.9
'70: RS = 27.3, PS = 22.1
'71: RS = 20.7, PS = 18.3
'72: RS = 14.8, PS = 14.7
'73: RS = 13.2, PS = 10.4
Excellent video.
All of that valide some certitude that I had wich is Jordan is the GOAT and Hakeem is criminally underappreciated
And all the negativity Kobe gets is unwarranted because he doesn't change and if you consider the amount of injuries he played through and the defenses he faced that is incredible.
Loubin Augustine um, no, because with the adjusted metrics, Kobe is middle of the pack. Kobe didn’t improve in playoff games compared to regular season.
@@shaneyy__ he made a vid where kobe improved
Just how much an impact does Steph’s two injured runs have on his overall dip? When overlooking everything, it looks like if you take those two seasons out of the equation he gets noticeably better. Is that correct?
Yep
@@nbaproductions7415 it does lol
I'd love to see this done for more players. Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray and Jokic would be interesting.
I love this video. I am curious if you looked at Rajon Rondo when putting together your numbers? Did he qualify as a "star" or play enough? It is well known he picks up his play in the playoffs, but I was wondering how his improvement fared in your system.
The Klay and Draymond part were nice add. People 20 years from now will see the highlights and think Steph and Klay were the core of this dynasty, but it really was Steph and Dray.
Draymond Green. His scoring, rebounds and assists all went up in all 7 postseasons of his 7yr career.
Pure fire content sir
Great video
i love the big head drawings you have of the players lol 8/8 for hardens drawing haha
incredible work
Superb job!
You really are the best bball channel, and I think the caricatures really prove it. Great work.
Good video. However I would suggest adding defensive matrix to the review?
This channel puts mainstream basketball "analysts" to shame
Do a video on Kawhi Leonard please
Abhiraj Brar
Yea
I'm surprised Kawhi wasn't in this video
@@j.walker8874 He doesn't have enough playoff runs yet. Soon
In this years playoffs Kawhi scoring went from 27pts to 30pts, while opponent stars scoring dramatically dropped (partly from Gasol and Raps upped defense). It sure looks like Kawhi improves significantly in the playoffs.
He's not impressed with kawhi.
My favorite Channel. The animation is hilarious.
Never got to watch MJ. Glad we have clips we can watch today. THE GOAT
This is wild because i had this convo with a coworker yesterday and named all of the players you naned with no stats
If Hakeem gets praised for his best 10 year stretch, which was basically his entire prime, I think Shaq and Duncan should be compared to him similarly. 1999-07 for Duncan (or 2008 to match 10 year mark) and 1995-2003 for Shaq (and again, 2004 can be used if 10 is the mark).
Duncan for example;
His advanced regular season numbers 25.5 per / 26.8 eff / 0.228 ws48 / 2.3 obpm / 6.4 bpm / .551 ts
His advanced the playoffs numbers 27.0 per / 29.3 eff / 0.227 ws48 / 3.5 obpm / 7.8 bpm / .560 ts
Surely he elevates his level. Not gets stagnant.
Awesome quality video surely. Great one!
2016 was so harsh to Curry. That man could stay healthy, and rushed back from almost all of his injuries
stop it
@@TheIcemanthomas it’s true
@@badapple4613 it’s not. He was banged up not injured. There’s a difference. Everyone goes through that. That’s no excuse.
@@TheIcemanthomas he re aggravated in game 7!wcf
@@badapple4613 y’all niggas can’t read, I swear
Best analysis’s on TH-cam
God damn this channel is so good
The problem with Curry metric is that he always get double team in play-off, defender even guard him intensely from half-court range . This result in the decline of his stat, but the space he create make Warrior as a team become so much better. So yeah, overall i like your idea, but stat alone without context is not a good way to judge a player performance.
I agree with you, but I would be hard to imagine that he didn't already take that into account.
Besides a lot of others on the list were also constantly doubled team.
thank you. people don't understand his offensive impact. Teams base their defensive schemes off trying to shut down curry. the space he creates just by being on the floor makes up for this decline
Depressed Loser It’s clear that Offensive +/- and BPM don’t include schemes and injuries. That’s why people still watch game film.
that's not plausible. That happens with every star player not just curry. If u take that into account for one, u have to do It for everyone.
MJ was doubleteamed and hacked through his entire career in the post season. That didn't minimized his impact at all
This deserve more subs.
i think that a great video would be top offensive, defensive and overall peaks
Hi ben I think you should add a line in the middle for the player sliders to represent 0 what do you think?
Your Reeggie Miller caricature looks like some kind of psychopath Frankenstein's monster.
This is by far the best basketball analytics video I´ve ever seen !!
Really like if you revisited this subject in future videos :)
I got hyped when I saw the beginning of the video because I thought Ben was gonna talk about Jerry West here but I was disappointed again... pain.
I want to see him make an updated video about curry’s numbers in the playoffs after his huge post season this year.
Yea, and this video also came out right before the 2019 playoffs, and Curry went absolutely nuts in the 2019 playoffs just like he did this year in 2022
The ending graphic makes it seem as though mostly Old 80-90s players saw the most improvement in the post szn and newer players have taken the biggest hit -- Kobe/Bron/Shaq/Duncan able to maintain a steady level performance of play between regular and post szns
What software do you use to make the animation?
Great stuff. But does this account for a high percentage shooter's number dropping the playoffs. Example if a guy shot 51% from the field in the regular season but dropped to 45% in the playoffs and another player then maintained 45% for both the season and playoffs. Now the 51% guy drops from great to good. Can that be necessarily penalized just because the player is very efficient during the season. In the playoffs minutes and shots volume go up, so percentages will vary at times.
I thought Rondo and Draymond Green are the two most improved players in Playoffs. Maybe they are but they are not as good as the players mentioned.
Not dray
@@onyo6498 compared to his season self, he definitely improves
He said Draymond has one of the biggest increases adjusted for defense as well
Yeah did he even watch the video LOL
thinking basketball, It would be great if you did a video on which superstar had the worst supporting cast in the nba finals when it comes to scoring.. OR top 5
Any more info on Bill Russell? I see his avatar but didn't catch any info or stats on him.
Best basketball channel on TH-cam no doubt
I'm curious, your adjusted stats account for overall performances, meaning injuries damage the value of this stat for a player. If you take the injury time away, where does steph rank? ( meaning, game time only adjusted value)
(BTW your the best basketball channel on youtube for me, by far the most quality content i've seen - keep up the good work!)
Injury affects players performance, even a few after healing. Including 2016 and 2018 Curry is kinda unfair, as the injuries would make him rusty.
This has always been such an interesting topic for me and it is really not talked about. In my opinion, mvps and all these regular seasons stats don't matter. The bigger (and the more ofter) u come up in the playoffs, the higher ur rank will be.
Truer today than ever before. Every star rests and doesn't play defense in the regular season these days, and teams only play their best lineups deep into the playoffs.
Milto 22 ideally this would be the case, but put simply it’s too small a sample to put much stock into. Multi year regular season based regressions have proven to be far more predictive of playoff success than, well, actual post season success is. Playoff impact metrics are more novelty than analysis
@@ethangilworth7891 small sample size but in context playoffs is in a high pressure environment with defenses designed according to scouts will show who has that focus(not measured) to take on the pressure and who folds is not just novelty since regular season does not take this into account
Please do a video on Mitchell Robinson and his crazy ability to block any shot across the floor!
Unbiased, fact-driven analysis, I LOVE IT!!! *SUBSCRIBED*
Can you make a video on all this + - stuff and how it works?
Can you explain the offensive load statistic you used here?
What about melo, russell and big o?
Good video man
Could you go into detail on Wade? Cuz I know in 2012 and especially 2013, 2014 his playoff performance dipped significantly when he was hobbling on both knees. I know in 04,05,06,10,16,18 he had dramatically raised his level of play in the postseason as compared to reg season, while 09 and 11 seemed to be on par.
Great video. But I think this is an incomplete analysis. It doesn't take into account the metric which matters most in the second season: team success. It should take into account the seeding of a player's team, and how well they do according to that seeding (how that algorithm works can be decided later). The lack of this context is why the results seem so counterintuitive.
Of course, steph and kevin durant actually do well in the playoffs. They don't get worse. Of course, larry bird actually does well in the playoffs. These players prioritize team efficiency over individual performance during the playoffs. They also have better teammates than those other "second season" risers. So they're not forced to a ridiculous volume. And even with these terms, true performers like Jordan and Kobe would still stand out.
Again, great video. But I'd love to see a follow-up on these points!