In case anyone is interested. The locomotive is the Ty2-559, which was built in Germany in 1943 as class 52 and was in service for the PKP from '45 to the 70s. She is on display at the AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow.
@@stephenrickstrew7237 War train or properly war locomotive. These were locomotives that were produced as part of the war economy. In this case it is a simplified version of the successful class 50. There is also an article 'Kriegslokomotive' in the English Wiki.
India's support of Russia is more concerning than even China's in my opinion. India is considered a democracy (with a lot of socialistic centralization). I had an Indian political science professor, and his thinking seems to explain this attitude. He had only one thing that he emphasized in his classes: "Nations have national interests, not friends." True to a large extent but carrying that to its logical conclusion such as India paying Russia for oil which it uses to make weapons to kill people is problematic to say the least.
Russia certainly does not have any friends (except other terrorist states). That is going to make recovery from bankruptcy very slow. Does Indian wish to join this bunch of gangsters terrorists and kleptocracies and forsake democracy?
@@EconLessons Without the American Lend-Lease Russians had no chance in WW2 despite their capacity and strategic depth. I agree with you: real sanctions would become Inverted Lend-Lease or Lend-Squeeze if you will. Western Fear and Greed must be accounted and will be decisive factor for the survival of our civilization.
Thanks Mark! Always learn something from your insights. You've been a great ally with a huge heart, the world needs more like you. Wishing you a Happy New Year from California.
I use a command line video editor, that means I do not even edit with a GUI, with an old camera . no lenses and no mic - old school just choose a cool background.
It will be difficult to build such an economy without production facilties, ports, and with a crippled workforce. Russia will end the same way as all other colonial empires have. Broken and dissolved.
The most capable Russians left during the mobilization. At a minimum, 600,000 of the most educated and productive Russian men fled Russia. Some estimates put it at 1,400,000 men. Building AI centers and drone factories from scratch without these workers won't work. At the present rate of inflation and battlefield destruction, the Russian economy doesn't have 17 months, much less 17 years.
That is not true. Who left was mostly streamers, youtubers, onlyfans streamers, IT freelancers (aka those who was not able to find permanent work in IT).
Thank you Mark for your insights. Here's wishing you all the very best for 2025. May God bless Ukraine and all its peoples. Let's hope Ukraine is successful in its campaign against Russia in 2025. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Mark, wishing you a healthy & prosperous New Year- Victory for Ukraine! I will listen to this a few more times as initially it seems like a huge awkward puzzle piece that does not fit in with the fine tuned informative puzzle lessons that you have previously taught us. This 80% figure of agreement from the Russian people is, I believe, the result of propaganda (lies), and an accepted position of living in horrible conditions learned over lifetimes. It appears to me that there is too much working against this theory. Admittedly I can be a tad 'thick' so perhaps this instruction will make more sense when I re-visit it a few times. As always, thank you, Mark- blesings, Jack
WOW, Mark, you never fail to amaze me, very interesting, & eye-opening, about Russia, China & India, I will share it, but, I will listen to it a couple more times. Thank you, Happy New Year 2025, to you & your family, and many, many more years to come.
Some refreshing observations this morning Mark. FYI "Covert Cabal" put out a video yesterday detailing the rapidly declining russian tank stocks. Basically, reserves in storage depots are down to one-quarter of stocks at the start of this conflict. Of those "tanks" remaining up to half of them can be classified as "hulks" , only good for being spare part donors for repairs on other vehicles. Great to see that you are wearing a warm coat, you will feel the benefit of it.
Actually stock is about half (50% )instead of a quarter, but indeed probably half of that half (50%) is used for parts to restore other tanks for battle. We will see in 2025 what is true.
@@andreverwoerd1378Covert Cabal had to count everything not knowing for certain the actual condition on what tanks were completely scrap or in poor condition. For sure 2025 will indeed show the reality of Russian tank stock. The front line for sure shows the lack of them.
Any ideas on the USA constantly falling short of its military recruitment goals? No one seems to want to serve in large numbers anymore I don’t see how you will avoid a dr@ft.
US has way too large a service and people on the payroll as an economist. We need smaller more modern, rather than numbers. Only way is increase the rate of pay, that is why we generally have a labor shortage. People would rather play Minecraft if they can not afford to pay the bills.
@@EconLessons You're welcome. I watch your videos every morning and always find them interesting. Life is about making the world a better place for everybody!
Alright, Mark,...I'm sitting up and paying attention. I had no idea Putin had given himself and Russia a backdoor, that if successfully taken, would put them into an even stronger position than before. Whoa! How can Ukraine's "multi-faceted way" to building an economy and military overcome Russia's "brutal scaling up of one dimensional economics?" Gotta be something about flexibility and inventiveness and nimbleness paired with an underpinning of built in reliability...such as where one area fails, another pops up quickly? I hope you continue your presentation specific to this issue further. It sounds like it's a huge "hinge moment" that has the potential to change everything, like you suggest.
Elon Musk's support of Russia is even more concerning. Recently he told America that he needed smart, talented, educated foreigners to work in high tech because there weren't enough Americans. If there is too much push back on his plans I can see him taking his Starlink and Space X toys to another location.
As it appears he violated his student visa and lied to immigration officials, he could be forcibly detained. Few would shed a tear, many would rejoice, and this could increase our security. As U.S. taxpayer money fueled his empire, we all deserve a dividend, too.
I disagree that the Russian industrial complex will carry on growing. It has already stopped growing and is projected to decrease in 2025. When the Russian economy collapses it will decrease further.
It's a lot easier to scale production for a few years when you are in a total war with closed borders. Completely another thing is to try suppress civilian demand for a decade without consequences. You will either end up becoming either North Korea or a Soviet Union. However I do not doubt Putin and his mob would not try this.
Tbh, I disagree with you. russia is growing it next generation with 'patriotic'-theme. And russia is very cabable to continue it war-things manyfacturing. With cost of tax-payers. Cause they are already being taught for 'forever smo'. I'm not professional, but this is what I think.
Sorry but you are missing on manufacturing on nVidia and future of AI with chinese knockoff GPUs. China does not have a capability to manufacture anything smaller than 7nm. 7nm is not efficient to use for such operations. You are talking of previous generation computing that they have excelled in. This has ended to them by sanctions. Yes, there are ways how to work around sanctions but it becomes very difficult to have anything substantial to a scale of bigger datacenters.
@EconLessons no, 7mm fab is not economical to scale up as it creates more errors in production. Also bigger chip in same litography scale the more power you need to feed them and problems how to dissipate heat thatis byproduct. Good referrence point would be company like Huawei. Before sanctions they were copying and progressing faster than other companies in the markets they were covering. Phones, network equipment. Sanctions hit and Huawei is now stuck on 7mm processorsea even on flagship phones. It is essentially they are stuck 5+ years behind. Noone is selling new fabs to china and noone is maintaining current fabs. Essentially it will be paperweight without maintenance it is planned and strictly controlled. Their chip. Companies are faaaar from cathing up with current technology and their biggest chip fab just recently bankrupted.
Thanks Mark. I'm an ex gamer too. The game is called "Risk" I'd be eyeing up Kamchatka right now with a view to sneak in or out. Peace and love from Cumbria.
Putin is in his 70s and Russia lacks a tradition of continuity. Every new leader starts by purging the old support personnel. Given that Russia is 30 years behind in technology, by the time the brain drain gets repaired it'll be an order of magnitude out of sync. I believe that for China the Ukraine war is a welcome drain in Western resources, but Russia remains an obstacle to the CCP's objectives.
temporary drain on Western munitions, not resources/military overall, and in fact the opposite, as we finally get to simulate peer-to-peer war, and major war, with actual data for the first time EVER. It's actually a boon to the allied militaries, if they study hard,and if the allies organize and get smart about equipment needs and production.
Great insight Mark. That 1944 airplane production fact was amazing. A total war economy with a complacent population is a challenge to ours. I hope one chess player can counter the plans of the 10 playing checkers 24/7.🇺🇦🇨🇦
Just one question - did increasing airplane production save Nazis? Nope. Not even jet engines and VAU missiles saves em. Without outer support not any state can't win, no matters how effectively his military industry is. That's why russia now asking for troops and ammo in NK, drones and and missiles from Iran, money and supplies from India and China. That's why they spending so much money to influence EU and US politics.
Interestingly, the Germans actually ran out of skilled pilots and fuel for their aircraft at the end of the war. This is how you stop wars unfortunately- run out of people or commodities, and this is what makes Russia such a problem. They have plenty of both, and the desire to run out of both.
@@TyphoonVstromyeah, I think only once the Western Allies got after the major logistics to choke off the fuel source did the full effects of strategic bombing really take effect, because unlike small parts, and vehicle and aircraft assembly, it's really difficult to descale a petroleum system.
First thanks for your content. Really great. Second, as an IT-guy and prudent investor (I like mining - real mining, oil&gas, rare earths, telecom, maritime shipping, etc, etc) - I find Bitcoin and crypto laughable. I see it as: "Hey, my graphics card has generated this SHA-256 hash - can I give it to you and you give me a cup of coffee?". I just can't see crypto something incorporated in BIS (Bank for International Settlements), and the SWIFT-system. Hey - where did "unit of account, mean of exchange and store of value" go? :-D Keep up the good work. As for Russian drones - I guess we need to ramp up counter measures. UK has some nice stuff coming out....something '...dragon' I believe was the name. As a former radar-guy, to me, it looks like a directed EMP-gun (Electro Magnetic Pulse). One km range, and just a few cents per pop (depending on your kWh-rate I guess), compared to expensive missiles.
Great presentation today, very true that a huge country has history of moving entire factories. By use of energy and technology and as you say, colder location scalability can be accomplished. It can even be hidden “ not showing much sign of new infrastructure. “ Magnagorsk for example. That is where the 2nd world war infrastructure landed. It is an entire city idling away. So yes good point, Strength And Love And Accuracy.
Thankyou for the thoughts and lessons! And wish you a Happy New Year! I am old and have books saved my father bought after the war about WW1 and WW2. It was released 1948 so quite much detatils in there was the truth. Russia was not any good country that time either. Its possible a bad type of looting culture has been a disaster for many people even in many other countries! My father served in the defenceforce of Sweden in 4 years at the marine coastal defence. He watched the big ship Blücher going up in international water to attack Norway 9th of May 1940. My mothers cousin in Idaho or Seattle was a pilot of B17 doing missions over Germany from UK. He survived and visited Sweden after the war. Its unfortunate that an arrogant and criminal leader is in the upper lead of Russia. If he had been a manager of a football team he had been sacked! They have no safetynet against bad people at all. Any criminal could have taken over there! Lets wait and see how the criminal leader of USA will behave?
From one with an Econ background - thanks. How sad and disappointing. With the West's Goodwill post 1991 - trade and aid opportunities, >>>Russia could have been on par with Poland today in terms of wealth and freedom ......had Putin or someone like him, not taken the steering wheel.
i look forward to your videos, i saw another video by professor Gerdes was speaking of russia givimg student visas to African women to come work in drone factories in russia, the enticement was theu would be learning skill sets
Thank you I was in Russia in August, yes things have changed inside Russia. The quality of food is cheaper, so have the prices, and there are fewer men on the streets, SBP, and Moscow. And one thing I noticed was very few police on the streets and Metro, I saw 100s and 100s of military trucks going through the city.
Important thing is that Russia depends on being a gas station to fund all of this and these funds start to dry up. That's why their money printers started to work overtime, there are new taxes, lowered pensions etc. Without western technology, Russia's extraction of natural resources like natural gas and oil will quickly start to become unprofitable. People forget that these resources are mostly extracted in hostile environments of Siberia and deeper deposits need to be accessed for the venture to stay profitable. Even before a way, some Russian minister connected to industry said in around 2030 there will be huge problems for Russia, as profitable resource deposits are starting to dry up. Either these resources need to be more expensive (with the advent of electric vehicles and more acceptance for nuclear power it is highly unlikely) or new, cheap to access large deposits need to found (so far none were found). I believe this also indirectly caused the Ukrainian war, Putin knows that Russia is on a timer, it's easier to sacrifice millions of his underlings then lose money and prestige. Ukraine has many resource deposits, that were blocked for the west by Russian funded Oligarchs, this is also a forgotten cause of this war.
Great analysis. But Ronald Reagan showed us how to stop that. Start a arms race in earnest. But this time Euope has to do the heavy lifting as the US has enough to do to deal with China.
Reagan gets way too much credit for the small amount he did compared to previous presidents. The USSR was going to fail with or without the Gipper's SDI.
Russia has revolutions every 80 years or so. That with chronic health problems like alcoholism, hepatitis and HIV, what condition will Russia be in a hundred years from now?
Mark, would you provide a financial estimate on the cost to Russia to stabilize the ruble? For example, the ruble is now trading at .009 to the USD. How much of the sovereign wealth fund does it cost Russia to bring the exchange rate back to .01? Is this a significant drag on the Russian purse or a minor inconvenience? Thanks in advance for your analysis.
Hi Mark .. I have a complex question… The Dambuster raid in 43 really threw a wrench in Germany’s war production.. the Ruhr Valley took the better part of 6 months to recover and at a huge cost to repair the mess, Russia is going to have to decentralize its production to avoid a one strike incapacitation of anything critical, …. meanwhile their oil industry is really getting hammered, like WW2 were it took until 1944 to cripple German oil production are we starting to see the effects of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil on their military and arms production and how close are we to a Russian oil industry collapse…?
The problem with the German invasion of russia was logistics. The more they advanced into russia the harder to supply the troops. Some german generals earned Hitler about the risks involved.
And they did the same in Africa- ran out of logistics. And the same in southern europe when they tried to advance east. Logistics is the only reason that D-day worked. All the effort went into a 12-18 month buildip and staging of materiel.
They're not banned anymore, are they? They've been sending drones 2000km into Russia. They probably don't have the means to do it quickly, but they are chipping away at it.
My MIL and my daughter's partner's parents and grandmother are all Russian pensioners and none of them are starving. You read too much Western propaganda.
great insights, esp, around 4:00 and comments on crypto..., but I agree, the scaling of drone and crypto is bang on! thank you Mark! poosTain is trying to buy time with this "illigitimacy" bs to defer and deflect negotiations..., and long term, Ukraine needs scaleable portable micro (size of a SeaCan) nuclear stored underground - which is still being developed here in west, but Ukraine needs to get on it, cause rusHns are building portable nuclear icebreakers in Siberia as we speak....
The Russians have had nuclear icebreakers since the 50's. Nothing new there. The russian arctic faces the same problems as the Canadian arctic- the terrain is terrible for building infrastructure and the shoreline is not conducive to easy development into ports (and the ports would only be usable for short periods of the year, even with huge fleets of icebreakers). The Russians main interest in icebreakers is that it provides a means of exporting oil over sea instead of through other countries, thereby bypassing sanctions.
@@TyphoonVstrom I live north of 60, and agree. What you describe and what I propose are two very different things. mentioned ice breakers cause they provide 'portable' power..., Could have used submarine as example. I'm focused on portable "MICRO"nuclear plants- fits on back of semi and can be hauled to secure location, like someplace safe, underground, water not required....
Thanks for the analysis! Could you help me with something unrelated: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
Please examine this proposal: “Proposed that the central bank of Russia can no longer use interest rates as a tool to influence inflation.” I believe that the normal relation between interest rates and inflation has been decoupled by the war economy. This decoupling has occurred because in a war economy, the spending on war is so highly prioritized that such spending is not subject to normal economic factors, and because domestic currency will be created at whatever level is required to support the spending.
With Bitcoin there is a limit of 21 million. The remaining unmined coins are worth roughly $80 billion, significant but not enough for Putin's problems.
@volkerr. If bitcoin suddenly becomes unlimited then doesn't it simply become another fiat currency but without a central authority to control it? Worst of both worlds
Real economies have nothing to do with computer games. They are much more complex. Scaling up production is what China does well but it is a risky strategy. In the moment somebody find a better product all the investment to scale up production is lost.
Well Mark, this wasn't particularly cheery. I'm most dismayed by Europe in general. This entire continent is screwed up with socialism in the form of the so called welfare state that's grown so much it encompasses 20%-30% of the economy with total tax rates above 50% + increased indebtedness every year. Unfortunately the US isn't much better in this regard, but still seems to have some level of common sense left in it...
Can you explain this a little bit further? Personally I do not see what is wrong with being a welfare state (I live in Netherlands). We have high taxes, but we can also contribute to the war on a yearly basis, and if necessary, give more. And I think first of al we donate more than the US to the defense effort in Ukraine (check the numbers), and are also stepping up our own defense industry at the same time.
@@andreverwoerd1378 I can't reasonably respond to you in a short TH-cam comment. Here's the short version: when a product or service is provided by the market the incentive structure ensures that price for the good is minimized and the quality is maximized. When something is done through a public monopoly you'll get maximized price and minimized quality (in broad strokes). The cost for this is hidden through debt and that debt is what makes things inflexible in the long term. The Netherlands has a debt-to-GDP of roughly 50% and that debt exists because of public pensions, healthcare, education and similar social programs - it doesn't exits because of long term investments or military spending. Virtually all so called Western governments are in the same boat. Even Switzerland (where I live) the debt-to-GDP sits at 35%.
Rubble tanking, inflation soaring, interest rate record high. War economy and most sanctioned country in human history. The train of demise can't be stopped now. It's only a matter of time.
Nice trains, I like trains and train travel - in fact planning a trip through Poland to Estonia, no steam unfortunately 🙂. And Happy New Year in advance. Post war, the problem for Russia is they have undermined their two main rapid export possibilities - Energy and armaments. Energy by having weaponised it they make it untrustworthy. Armaments well, their performance in Ukraine make them undesirable to countries with the resources to buy them and of course they will need to rebuild their own military. As to their idea for a tech base, I wonder if it fits Chinese strategy to empower them (ignoring the many skilled people who have left probably never to return). I rather think China rather has its eyes on Siberia.
The main weakness of Russia is their dependency on rail. The US can use rail, water, air, and most importantly, road. Rail is an advantage in peacetime, but if you have a war going on, rail is easily tracked, targeted and destroyed.
With due respect Mark, as an economist you also know very well that infinite scalability does not work in real life. The _"Quantity is a Quality of its own" saying is a myth just like the _"Quality Over Quantity."_ There are always costs to pay for producing cheap stuff, the more you produce of the same, the easier will be your opponent to find an answer to it or the easier it will be to sabotage it. You cannot "game the system" if it is not a closed system, others will soon catch on. And then the harder it will be for you to deviate from the standards of your upscaled and focused production. And even if you ignore all that, you will eventually hit bottlenecks on your own you never expected. You can treat people like slaves and even disposable meat but you still have to feed them or eventually they will expire, and even like that you will eventually run out of people. This is also disregarding corruption, embezzlement and personal enrichment which is one of most devastating problems the Russian army and economy has been struggling since the start. An army must be a well oiled machine with every parts functioning well. Random example: You have a truck full of supplies/soldiers transporting them to the field that breaks down halfway in the middle of the forest with a flat tire and there is no spare tire because someone stole it. Then your truck, your supplies and the soldiers are suddenly stranded halfway to its destination. Loosing that one spare tire has just cost the military an entire truck, and the entire cargo of supplies, and from that the problem could cascade, it can cause the loss of a position because the supplies didn't arrive so the fighters had to retreat, which could then delay their entire operation of multiple units by a week and so on and on. Obviously this is an unrealistic example but it demonstrates the extent of how the deep running culture of corruption can rot this entire finctional massive "scaled up" system from the inside. And we also assume that you are in a sealed bubble and there is no outside world that you need for it or that it competes with you and random events that change the playing field. What if China suddenly decides they no longer want to supply the parts because Russia cannot pay for them? China and Russia while they claim to be "allies" are also competitors with conflicting interests. China would never want to give Russia too much to make Russia be a threat to itself, the Chinese aren't stupid either you know.
Albert Speer made the inflated production claims in his 1950’s book ‘Rise and Fall of the Third Reich’. Few believed him at the time. He was simply tooting his own horn to increase his value to the West. All wartime economies by necessity must be fully integrated throughout the production supply chains. The loss of a single rail line, power station, or essential component will jam-up the production processes to the point of irreversibility. Mechanization requires constant maintenance which requires a supply of reliable components. Combining Quality Control with Slave Labor is an oxymoron.
It’s funny you mentioned Albert Speer .. I saw him interviewed and he said after Hamburg that another 2 weeks of concentrated firebombing “ vrs scattered raids” on that scale would have forced Germany to surrender..
In case anyone is interested. The locomotive is the Ty2-559, which was built in Germany in 1943 as class 52 and was in service for the PKP from '45 to the 70s. She is on display at the AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow.
Thanks 😊
I don'tknow much about trains, but I have always appreciated the beauty of the older designs. Thanks for the details of this particular engine. 👍
@@moonraker978 I saw something about The “ war trains” extra drive wheels and ran on coal … was it one of those ..?
@@stephenrickstrew7237 War train or properly war locomotive. These were locomotives that were produced as part of the war economy. In this case it is a simplified version of the successful class 50. There is also an article 'Kriegslokomotive' in the English Wiki.
@ Thanks
India's support of Russia is more concerning than even China's in my opinion. India is considered a democracy (with a lot of socialistic centralization). I had an Indian political science professor, and his thinking seems to explain this attitude. He had only one thing that he emphasized in his classes: "Nations have national interests, not friends." True to a large extent but carrying that to its logical conclusion such as India paying Russia for oil which it uses to make weapons to kill people is problematic to say the least.
Russia certainly does not have any friends (except other terrorist states). That is going to make recovery from bankruptcy very slow. Does Indian wish to join this bunch of gangsters terrorists and kleptocracies and forsake democracy?
That's why India should be sanctioned hardly as well!
I have no problem with India buying Russian oil, as long as they pay a low price for it, so that the Russians do not make much of a profit.
Tell nation morale and values. Money is all, humans are tool or raw material.
I would cancel all their H-1B visas.
Respect for you sir, be carefull, because Russia doesn't like critics. Stay safe my favorite economist! Greetings from the Netherlands.
If he is not there someone will take his place. Maybe in 20 years a new one will arise. It is the minds of the culture that are not changing.
@@EconLessons exactly!
@@EconLessons Without the American Lend-Lease Russians had no chance in WW2 despite their capacity and strategic depth. I agree with you: real sanctions would become Inverted Lend-Lease or Lend-Squeeze if you will. Western Fear and Greed must be accounted and will be decisive factor for the survival of our civilization.
Fore-warned is fore-armed. Thank you, Mark. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 💙 💛
Thanks Mark! Always learn something from your insights. You've been a great ally with a huge heart, the world needs more like you. Wishing you a Happy New Year from California.
Beautiful California - Happy New Year.
Dear Mark,
Thank you for your analysis and your reports. You are a wonderful teacher. I hope this finds you well and safe.
Have a blessed day. Shalom.
Shalom friend.
Love the background ! Keep it up mark good job.
I use a command line video editor, that means I do not even edit with a GUI, with an old camera . no lenses and no mic - old school just choose a cool background.
@@EconLessons awesome!
It will be difficult to build such an economy without production facilties, ports, and with a crippled workforce.
Russia will end the same way as all other colonial empires have. Broken and dissolved.
What a great eye for hidden information, and a great eye for great locations.
My Favorite monetary economist.
Totally agree. I used to follow others but they bore me with their repetition
@@daveinromania You mean with buzzwords like COLLAPSING ? 😏
The most capable Russians left during the mobilization. At a minimum, 600,000 of the most educated and productive Russian men fled Russia. Some estimates put it at 1,400,000 men. Building AI centers and drone factories from scratch without these workers won't work. At the present rate of inflation and battlefield destruction, the Russian economy doesn't have 17 months, much less 17 years.
That is not true. Who left was mostly streamers, youtubers, onlyfans streamers, IT freelancers (aka those who was not able to find permanent work in IT).
@@Crazmuss600,000 of them. Hmmm
You're right Russia cannot do the type of stuff Mark talks about here. It conflicts with his previous statements.
@Crazmuss wrong, those with the most money to be able to flee, were the ones that left. Those who make the most money tend to be the most important.
I hope that you are correct.
I LOVE YOUR USE of background...IT makes it a temptation to watch again just because it's interesting....
I love the Vista's,I love the Comments I Very Much appreciate the need to watch the Second time as well. ☮️🇨🇦🍁🍁🍁🍁
Thank you Mark for your insights. Here's wishing you all the very best for 2025. May God bless Ukraine and all its peoples. Let's hope Ukraine is successful in its campaign against Russia in 2025.
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
God Bless you my friend.
always waiting for your vids.Thank you for sharing knoweledge
Brilliant as always Mark.
Very interesting econ lessons here!
Great Video Mark, think Russia will be gone long before 2124
Yep, agree. It will fall apart within ten years...
In its current form if the world wants to be a better place if can not.
Mark is saying that Russia will survive, and even thrive, if further pressure isn’t applied to Russia’s economy.
Good analysis ,but I still find it in Revelation in chapter 12, not to be the case.@karlolander367
I look forward to your every post Mark. You bring insight and perspective to the chaos we see and feel. Blessings to you for a prosperous new year!
Blessings friend thank you.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Thank you, keep working.
Merry Christmas friend.
Thank you, Mark.
Mark, wishing you a healthy & prosperous New Year- Victory for Ukraine! I will listen to this a few more times as initially it seems like a huge awkward puzzle piece that does not fit in with the fine tuned informative puzzle lessons that you have previously taught us. This 80% figure of agreement from the Russian people is, I believe, the result of propaganda (lies), and an accepted position of living in horrible conditions learned over lifetimes. It appears to me that there is too much working against this theory. Admittedly I can be a tad 'thick' so perhaps this instruction will make more sense when I re-visit it a few times. As always, thank you, Mark- blesings, Jack
Thank you Jack my friend the same to you and yours.
WOW, Mark, you never fail to amaze me, very interesting, & eye-opening, about Russia, China & India, I will share it, but, I will listen to it a couple more times. Thank you, Happy New Year 2025, to you & your family, and many, many more years to come.
Hvala Mark!!
Keep making these videos, and your research into Mordor dismantling .
Thank you friend that looks interesting.
Thanks for that. Happy New Year
Happy New Year.
Mark you are always spot on in your insights..Thank you
As a digital design engineer I am not that worried on the ability of Russia to utilize such technologies.
I’m disappointed with this report. It sounds like a lot of BS
Your message deserves far more attention.
Very frightening. Thank you.
Some refreshing observations this morning Mark.
FYI "Covert Cabal" put out a video yesterday detailing the rapidly declining russian tank stocks. Basically, reserves in storage depots are down to one-quarter of stocks at the start of this conflict. Of those "tanks" remaining up to half of them can be classified as "hulks" , only good for being spare part donors for repairs on other vehicles.
Great to see that you are wearing a warm coat, you will feel the benefit of it.
Actually stock is about half (50% )instead of a quarter, but indeed probably half of that half (50%) is used for parts to restore other tanks for battle.
We will see in 2025 what is true.
@@andreverwoerd1378Covert Cabal had to count everything not knowing for certain the actual condition on what tanks were completely scrap or in poor condition.
For sure 2025 will indeed show the reality of Russian tank stock. The front line for sure shows the lack of them.
Great episode 👍👍
Great insights as always. And yes, Europe (and free peoples of the world) need to keep the pressure up on Russian fascism and Russia.
Thanks, Mark.
Hi Mark.. Thx for update. Its really interesting and i get a lot of insights in the economics.
Thank you Mark!
Cost versus value. Solid analysis. Effective delivery.
Thank you mark
Another AWESOME & INFORMATIVE insight 👍🏻!
Love ya mark you give me hope
Great post Mark..keep the pressure on & no peace settlement until a complete withdrawal is achieved
Thank you
Any ideas on the USA constantly falling short of its military recruitment goals? No one seems to want to serve in large numbers anymore I don’t see how you will avoid a dr@ft.
US has way too large a service and people on the payroll as an economist. We need smaller more modern, rather than numbers. Only way is increase the rate of pay, that is why we generally have a labor shortage. People would rather play Minecraft if they can not afford to pay the bills.
Fascinating analysis. Thank you! Слава Україні!
Thank you Alden.
@@EconLessons You're welcome. I watch your videos every morning and always find them interesting. Life is about making the world a better place for everybody!
Alright, Mark,...I'm sitting up and paying attention. I had no idea Putin had given himself and Russia a backdoor, that if successfully taken, would put them into an even stronger position than before. Whoa! How can Ukraine's "multi-faceted way" to building an economy and military overcome Russia's "brutal scaling up of one dimensional economics?" Gotta be something about flexibility and inventiveness and nimbleness paired with an underpinning of built in reliability...such as where one area fails, another pops up quickly? I hope you continue your presentation specific to this issue further. It sounds like it's a huge "hinge moment" that has the potential to change everything, like you suggest.
Civ 2!! love this channel
thank you so much for interesting news
Look how fast your channel is growing. Keep up the good work.😊
Hi Mark. Hope you had a peaceful Christmas. 😊
Thank you Volkerr Merry Christmas.
@@EconLessonsDanke schön. 😊
Elon Musk's support of Russia is even more concerning. Recently he told America that he needed smart, talented, educated foreigners to work in high tech because there weren't enough Americans. If there is too much push back on his plans I can see him taking his Starlink and Space X toys to another location.
Bye! He can be an unhinged lunatic elsewhere.
As it appears he violated his student visa and lied to immigration officials, he could be forcibly detained. Few would shed a tear, many would rejoice, and this could increase our security. As U.S. taxpayer money fueled his empire, we all deserve a dividend, too.
Must is not a man people who worked with him .... read what others who know him say.
I disagree that the Russian industrial complex will carry on growing. It has already stopped growing and is projected to decrease in 2025. When the Russian economy collapses it will decrease further.
It's a lot easier to scale production for a few years when you are in a total war with closed borders. Completely another thing is to try suppress civilian demand for a decade without consequences. You will either end up becoming either North Korea or a Soviet Union.
However I do not doubt Putin and his mob would not try this.
Tbh, I disagree with you. russia is growing it next generation with 'patriotic'-theme. And russia is very cabable to continue it war-things manyfacturing. With cost of tax-payers. Cause they are already being taught for 'forever smo'. I'm not professional, but this is what I think.
@Hups007 work on your English
@@richardm3421 That is your major answer to my response? IF you got what I said: my english is just perfect.
@@Hups007 I hope you get your bonus, I hear the price of potatoes is going up where you are.
You are producing immense important stuff
We are all in debited you Sir❤
Thank you Kludipsuris
Great information
I think you are right. They can't stop. It's entirely deliberate. Foolish quest. Deadly.
Sorry but you are missing on manufacturing on nVidia and future of AI with chinese knockoff GPUs. China does not have a capability to manufacture anything smaller than 7nm. 7nm is not efficient to use for such operations. You are talking of previous generation computing that they have excelled in. This has ended to them by sanctions. Yes, there are ways how to work around sanctions but it becomes very difficult to have anything substantial to a scale of bigger datacenters.
Moore Threads
Zhaoxin
Jingjia Micro
Innosilicon
Biren Technology in the future will scale it up and improve like the cell phones did right?
@@EconLessons i'll have to look these up, thanks!~
@EconLessons no, 7mm fab is not economical to scale up as it creates more errors in production. Also bigger chip in same litography scale the more power you need to feed them and problems how to dissipate heat thatis byproduct.
Good referrence point would be company like Huawei. Before sanctions they were copying and progressing faster than other companies in the markets they were covering. Phones, network equipment. Sanctions hit and Huawei is now stuck on 7mm processorsea even on flagship phones. It is essentially they are stuck 5+ years behind. Noone is selling new fabs to china and noone is maintaining current fabs. Essentially it will be paperweight without maintenance it is planned and strictly controlled. Their chip. Companies are faaaar from cathing up with current technology and their biggest chip fab just recently bankrupted.
Thanks Mark.
I'm an ex gamer too.
The game is called "Risk"
I'd be eyeing up Kamchatka right now with a view to sneak in or out.
Peace and love from Cumbria.
Risk was great friend.
Putin is in his 70s and Russia lacks a tradition of continuity. Every new leader starts by purging the old support personnel. Given that Russia is 30 years behind in technology, by the time the brain drain gets repaired it'll be an order of magnitude out of sync. I believe that for China the Ukraine war is a welcome drain in Western resources, but Russia remains an obstacle to the CCP's objectives.
temporary drain on Western munitions, not resources/military overall, and in fact the opposite, as we finally get to simulate peer-to-peer war, and major war, with actual data for the first time EVER. It's actually a boon to the allied militaries, if they study hard,and if the allies organize and get smart about equipment needs and production.
Interesting, thanks
Great insight Mark. That 1944 airplane production fact was amazing. A total war economy with a complacent population is a challenge to ours. I hope one chess player can counter the plans of the 10 playing checkers 24/7.🇺🇦🇨🇦
Just one question - did increasing airplane production save Nazis? Nope. Not even jet engines and VAU missiles saves em. Without outer support not any state can't win, no matters how effectively his military industry is. That's why russia now asking for troops and ammo in NK, drones and and missiles from Iran, money and supplies from India and China. That's why they spending so much money to influence EU and US politics.
Thank you friend.
Interestingly, the Germans actually ran out of skilled pilots and fuel for their aircraft at the end of the war. This is how you stop wars unfortunately- run out of people or commodities, and this is what makes Russia such a problem. They have plenty of both, and the desire to run out of both.
@@TyphoonVstromyeah, I think only once the Western Allies got after the major logistics to choke off the fuel source did the full effects of strategic bombing really take effect, because unlike small parts, and vehicle and aircraft assembly, it's really difficult to descale a petroleum system.
Thanks for posting this video...0
Love the train ❤!
First thanks for your content. Really great. Second, as an IT-guy and prudent investor (I like mining - real mining, oil&gas, rare earths, telecom, maritime shipping, etc, etc) - I find Bitcoin and crypto laughable. I see it as: "Hey, my graphics card has generated this SHA-256 hash - can I give it to you and you give me a cup of coffee?". I just can't see crypto something incorporated in BIS (Bank for International Settlements), and the SWIFT-system. Hey - where did "unit of account, mean of exchange and store of value" go? :-D Keep up the good work. As for Russian drones - I guess we need to ramp up counter measures. UK has some nice stuff coming out....something '...dragon' I believe was the name. As a former radar-guy, to me, it looks like a directed EMP-gun (Electro Magnetic Pulse). One km range, and just a few cents per pop (depending on your kWh-rate I guess), compared to expensive missiles.
Therese a German System as well. Mantis and sky ranger. Against all kind of drones. It’s even capable of intercepting shells from artillery guns.
Very interesting !
Dude minmaxxes strategy games and uses ffmpeg from the command line. You have my respect, sir.
Great presentation today, very true that a huge country has history of moving entire factories. By use of energy and technology and as you say, colder location scalability can be accomplished. It can even be hidden “ not showing much sign of new infrastructure. “ Magnagorsk for example. That is where the 2nd world war infrastructure landed. It is an entire city idling away. So yes good point, Strength And Love And Accuracy.
Thank you my friend.
Very interesting
Thankyou for the thoughts and lessons! And wish you a Happy New Year! I am old and have books saved my father bought after the war about WW1 and WW2. It was released 1948 so quite much detatils in there was the truth. Russia was not any good country that time either. Its possible a bad type of looting culture has been a disaster for many people even in many other countries!
My father served in the defenceforce of Sweden in 4 years at the marine coastal defence. He watched the big ship Blücher going up in international water to attack Norway 9th of May 1940.
My mothers cousin in Idaho or Seattle was a pilot of B17 doing missions over Germany from UK. He survived and visited Sweden after the war. Its unfortunate that an arrogant and criminal leader is in the upper lead of Russia. If he had been a manager of a football team he had been sacked! They have no safetynet against bad people at all. Any criminal could have taken over there!
Lets wait and see how the criminal leader of USA will behave?
great points and sharing, thanks! I'm a seattle-ite myself.
From one with an Econ background - thanks.
How sad and disappointing.
With the West's Goodwill post 1991 - trade and aid opportunities,
>>>Russia could have been on par with Poland today in terms of wealth and freedom
......had Putin or someone like him, not taken the steering wheel.
i look forward to your videos, i saw another video by professor Gerdes was speaking of russia givimg student visas to African women to come work in drone factories in russia, the enticement was theu would be learning skill sets
Thank you
I was in Russia in August, yes things have changed inside Russia.
The quality of food is cheaper, so have the prices, and there are fewer men on the streets, SBP, and Moscow.
And one thing I noticed was very few police on the streets and Metro,
I saw 100s and 100s of military trucks going through the city.
Important thing is that Russia depends on being a gas station to fund all of this and these funds start to dry up. That's why their money printers started to work overtime, there are new taxes, lowered pensions etc. Without western technology, Russia's extraction of natural resources like natural gas and oil will quickly start to become unprofitable. People forget that these resources are mostly extracted in hostile environments of Siberia and deeper deposits need to be accessed for the venture to stay profitable. Even before a way, some Russian minister connected to industry said in around 2030 there will be huge problems for Russia, as profitable resource deposits are starting to dry up. Either these resources need to be more expensive (with the advent of electric vehicles and more acceptance for nuclear power it is highly unlikely) or new, cheap to access large deposits need to found (so far none were found). I believe this also indirectly caused the Ukrainian war, Putin knows that Russia is on a timer, it's easier to sacrifice millions of his underlings then lose money and prestige. Ukraine has many resource deposits, that were blocked for the west by Russian funded Oligarchs, this is also a forgotten cause of this war.
Great analysis. But Ronald Reagan showed us how to stop that. Start a arms race in earnest. But this time Euope has to do the heavy lifting as the US has enough to do to deal with China.
Reagan gets way too much credit for the small amount he did compared to previous presidents.
The USSR was going to fail with or without the Gipper's SDI.
Russia has revolutions every 80 years or so. That with chronic health problems like alcoholism, hepatitis and HIV, what condition will Russia be in a hundred years from now?
Minor issues to them - they care about power not people.
Mark, would you provide a financial estimate on the cost to Russia to stabilize the ruble? For example, the ruble is now trading at .009 to the USD. How much of the sovereign wealth fund does it cost Russia to bring the exchange rate back to .01? Is this a significant drag on the Russian purse or a minor inconvenience? Thanks in advance for your analysis.
Hi Mark .. I have a complex question… The Dambuster raid in 43 really threw a wrench in Germany’s war production.. the Ruhr Valley took the better part of 6 months to recover and at a huge cost to repair the mess, Russia is going to have to decentralize its production to avoid a one strike incapacitation of anything critical, …. meanwhile their oil industry is really getting hammered, like WW2 were it took until 1944 to cripple German oil production are we starting to see the effects of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil on their military and arms production and how close are we to a Russian oil industry collapse…?
Smart question but with a negotiated settlement all economics changes.
@@EconLessons the Russian tradition of economic disaster followed by regime change …and then things got worse phenomenon
The problem with the German invasion of russia was logistics. The more they advanced into russia the harder to supply the troops. Some german generals earned Hitler about the risks involved.
And they did the same in Africa- ran out of logistics. And the same in southern europe when they tried to advance east.
Logistics is the only reason that D-day worked. All the effort went into a 12-18 month buildip and staging of materiel.
Frustrating how Ukraine is banned from taking out RU industrial complex. But as 40 mill RU pensioners are starving I think the RU will have to resist.
They're not banned anymore, are they? They've been sending drones 2000km into Russia. They probably don't have the means to do it quickly, but they are chipping away at it.
My MIL and my daughter's partner's parents and grandmother are all Russian pensioners and none of them are starving. You read too much Western propaganda.
A GPU manufacturer called Nenvida? 🤔
Nyetvidia- non working Russian copy.
great insights, esp, around 4:00 and comments on crypto..., but I agree, the scaling of drone and crypto is bang on! thank you Mark! poosTain is trying to buy time with this "illigitimacy" bs to defer and deflect negotiations..., and long term, Ukraine needs scaleable portable micro (size of a SeaCan) nuclear stored underground - which is still being developed here in west, but Ukraine needs to get on it, cause rusHns are building portable nuclear icebreakers in Siberia as we speak....
The Russians have had nuclear icebreakers since the 50's. Nothing new there. The russian arctic faces the same problems as the Canadian arctic- the terrain is terrible for building infrastructure and the shoreline is not conducive to easy development into ports (and the ports would only be usable for short periods of the year, even with huge fleets of icebreakers).
The Russians main interest in icebreakers is that it provides a means of exporting oil over sea instead of through other countries, thereby bypassing sanctions.
@@TyphoonVstrom I live north of 60, and agree. What you describe and what I propose are two very different things. mentioned ice breakers cause they provide 'portable' power..., Could have used submarine as example. I'm focused on portable "MICRO"nuclear plants- fits on back of semi and can be hauled to secure location, like someplace safe, underground, water not required....
Thanks for the analysis! Could you help me with something unrelated: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
Adolescent peer pressure and a peer process may never be fully conscious although it can continue to affect one for a lifetime.
NO PEICE SETTLEMENT! 🩵💛🇺🇦
Justice and real peace through for a better world, which means Moscow loses and flees from Ukraine.
Please examine this proposal: “Proposed that the central bank of Russia can no longer use interest rates as a tool to influence inflation.” I believe that the normal relation between interest rates and inflation has been decoupled by the war economy. This decoupling has occurred because in a war economy, the spending on war is so highly prioritized that such spending is not subject to normal economic factors, and because domestic currency will be created at whatever level is required to support the spending.
Wait you’ve been telling us that Russia was going belly up financially!
With Bitcoin there is a limit of 21 million. The remaining unmined coins are worth roughly $80 billion, significant but not enough for Putin's problems.
Let’s see what will happen after that limit is reached. I don’t believe in that story of limitation.
@volkerr. If bitcoin suddenly becomes unlimited then doesn't it simply become another fiat currency but without a central authority to control it? Worst of both worlds
He will do it in other ways with scaling up tech and try to use a one commodity model to replace oil,. the next commodity is money.
I have a feeling tomorrow Mark will give us a lecture on dead cat bounces and the Russian Ruble value in dollars.
This is what Ukraine is doing as well. Glory to Ukraine ❤
In the shorter term, there is this bridge. Improbable, but possible.
Real economies have nothing to do with computer games. They are much more complex. Scaling up production is what China does well but it is a risky strategy. In the moment somebody find a better product all the investment to scale up production is lost.
Well Mark, this wasn't particularly cheery. I'm most dismayed by Europe in general. This entire continent is screwed up with socialism in the form of the so called welfare state that's grown so much it encompasses 20%-30% of the economy with total tax rates above 50% + increased indebtedness every year. Unfortunately the US isn't much better in this regard, but still seems to have some level of common sense left in it...
Can you explain this a little bit further? Personally I do not see what is wrong with being a welfare state (I live in Netherlands). We have high taxes, but we can also contribute to the war on a yearly basis, and if necessary, give more. And I think first of al we donate more than the US to the defense effort in Ukraine (check the numbers), and are also stepping up our own defense industry at the same time.
@@andreverwoerd1378 I can't reasonably respond to you in a short TH-cam comment. Here's the short version: when a product or service is provided by the market the incentive structure ensures that price for the good is minimized and the quality is maximized. When something is done through a public monopoly you'll get maximized price and minimized quality (in broad strokes). The cost for this is hidden through debt and that debt is what makes things inflexible in the long term. The Netherlands has a debt-to-GDP of roughly 50% and that debt exists because of public pensions, healthcare, education and similar social programs - it doesn't exits because of long term investments or military spending. Virtually all so called Western governments are in the same boat. Even Switzerland (where I live) the debt-to-GDP sits at 35%.
@@andreverwoerd1378he hates everyone and doesn't want anyone to have anything while pretending he doesn't enjoy bashing poor people.
Look at Denmarks foreign debt and say again a little socialism is so bad.
Support your channel
Thank you Andrew
Just because they can, does not mean they should.
ALL CRYPTO IS COUNTERFEITING!
Too bad they will go bankrupt in the coming years
Am hoping months!
So far you said the russian economy is about to collapse, and now you are saying the opposite.
Rubble tanking, inflation soaring, interest rate record high. War economy and most sanctioned country in human history. The train of demise can't be stopped now. It's only a matter of time.
Nice trains, I like trains and train travel - in fact planning a trip through Poland to Estonia, no steam unfortunately 🙂. And Happy New Year in advance.
Post war, the problem for Russia is they have undermined their two main rapid export possibilities - Energy and armaments. Energy by having weaponised it they make it untrustworthy. Armaments well, their performance in Ukraine make them undesirable to countries with the resources to buy them and of course they will need to rebuild their own military. As to their idea for a tech base, I wonder if it fits Chinese strategy to empower them (ignoring the many skilled people who have left probably never to return). I rather think China rather has its eyes on Siberia.
The main weakness of Russia is their dependency on rail. The US can use rail, water, air, and most importantly, road. Rail is an advantage in peacetime, but if you have a war going on, rail is easily tracked, targeted and destroyed.
How do they have the cash???
With due respect Mark, as an economist you also know very well that infinite scalability does not work in real life. The _"Quantity is a Quality of its own" saying is a myth just like the _"Quality Over Quantity."_ There are always costs to pay for producing cheap stuff, the more you produce of the same, the easier will be your opponent to find an answer to it or the easier it will be to sabotage it. You cannot "game the system" if it is not a closed system, others will soon catch on. And then the harder it will be for you to deviate from the standards of your upscaled and focused production. And even if you ignore all that, you will eventually hit bottlenecks on your own you never expected. You can treat people like slaves and even disposable meat but you still have to feed them or eventually they will expire, and even like that you will eventually run out of people.
This is also disregarding corruption, embezzlement and personal enrichment which is one of most devastating problems the Russian army and economy has been struggling since the start. An army must be a well oiled machine with every parts functioning well. Random example: You have a truck full of supplies/soldiers transporting them to the field that breaks down halfway in the middle of the forest with a flat tire and there is no spare tire because someone stole it. Then your truck, your supplies and the soldiers are suddenly stranded halfway to its destination. Loosing that one spare tire has just cost the military an entire truck, and the entire cargo of supplies, and from that the problem could cascade, it can cause the loss of a position because the supplies didn't arrive so the fighters had to retreat, which could then delay their entire operation of multiple units by a week and so on and on. Obviously this is an unrealistic example but it demonstrates the extent of how the deep running culture of corruption can rot this entire finctional massive "scaled up" system from the inside.
And we also assume that you are in a sealed bubble and there is no outside world that you need for it or that it competes with you and random events that change the playing field. What if China suddenly decides they no longer want to supply the parts because Russia cannot pay for them? China and Russia while they claim to be "allies" are also competitors with conflicting interests. China would never want to give Russia too much to make Russia be a threat to itself, the Chinese aren't stupid either you know.
Albert Speer made the inflated production claims in his 1950’s book ‘Rise and Fall of the Third Reich’.
Few believed him at the time. He was simply tooting his own horn to increase his value to the West.
All wartime economies by necessity must be fully integrated throughout the production supply chains.
The loss of a single rail line, power station, or essential component will jam-up the production processes to the point of irreversibility. Mechanization requires constant maintenance which requires a supply of reliable components.
Combining Quality Control with Slave Labor is an oxymoron.
Good point and have to recheck this claims, but there are other historians also who make claims but I need to research this.
It’s funny you mentioned Albert Speer .. I saw him interviewed and he said after Hamburg that another 2 weeks of concentrated firebombing “ vrs scattered raids” on that scale would have forced Germany to surrender..
Albert Speer. It’s a German 🇩🇪 name. Speer means spear
@@volkerr. Oops …! Spellcheck won …. But it has been fixed
Yes Volkerr and Germany is helping Ukraine thank you.
The same was true of Britain in the Battle of Britain- they only had a few weeks left to fight.