AGONIZING Poker Decision For Half A MILLION Dollars
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 ธ.ค. 2024
- Rob Yong puts Doug Polk to the test on this massive hand from High Stakes Poker. This was the big game that featured Matt Berkey, Nik Airball, Jennifer Tilly, Lynne Ji, and Jean-Robert Bellande. Doug and Rob both have huge hands, and it looks like all of the money is destined to go in the middle.
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You missed the live tell at 6:16. Anytime someone shakes their head and then raises (especially if its a fish)... run!
I caught that and I know rob did as well, lol. That's why he stopped mid way. He couldn't help it.
It seems like he was replying to someone at the table. Didn’t think he was shaking his head at the bet.
Wouldn't a fish shake their head when they have a bad hand, rather than a good hand?
I saw that too.
@@beeeps Only when he is a fish that is very dumb.
If he has some intelligence he will try to give false tells, until he figures out that those are pretty obvious tells too.
6:32 😂😂😂😂 “Call Robl and see if you’re allowed to call”🤣🤣I’m dead
Does Robl actually back him?
I wish you were
Doug I feel like you missed mentioning that the KhQh had the nut back door flush draw. I’m guessing that makes it much more of a call/raise instead of fold.
Exactly
Doug’s got the blockers tho (Jh10h), pokers way harder when you can’t see the cards -.- lol
@@davidandmarinoell his opponent doesn't know that he is against JhTh. So in his eyes he is drawing to nut flash.
in a 3-bet 4-way pot, backdoor draws are much less powerful even if to the nuts, because the SPR is too low and ranges are too strong.
Love the meme. Love to see Doug back at it again. Great work!
It's funny that Doug could manage to make such bad calls in those situations. Which hand did Rob call preflop and flop with, knowing that the board hit Doug's range almost always since Doug 3bet preflop. The only bluffing hands Rob might have are TQs, JQs... If He had QQ or KK he would definitely 4bet preflop because he's on straddle. He might call or fold with AQ, but there's no way in hell Rob can turn AQ into a bluff.
So the only possibility is Rob bluffed with total air, but once again, it's completely crazy because the board is definitely in Doug's range.
I 100% agree with you
Polk only thinks and talk about blockers + he si super scared to get bluffed on live cause he is ago maniac insecure Beta
This was your best post yet. Thank you for showing & breaking this down.
It was an absolute donkey play by Doug. 🤦♂️
@@skye2281 no u
@@Vivi_9 He called off a couple hundred thousand dollars with only a bluff catcher, lol. There are much better spots to put that money in pots. The worst play I’ve ever seen him make. 🤦♂️
Just rewatched, and the looks from JRB and Berkey over to Yong at 13:28 are hilarious
Thanks for the explanation on the call. Made a lot of sense!
No it didn't. Doug calls too often, because he thinks people will run him over otherwise. But folks just use him as an atm.
Did you lose a prop bet and now have to make daily videos 😂
Exactly what I’m thinking
He’s been losing poker bets and needs some cash flow
Doug's channel is one of the biggest in poker. More views = more money. Can also use his platform for free advertising for upswing and the lodge, which he does almost every video. And I'm sure he does a bunch of videos in a single day and sends the footage to his editor. Then they probably space out the content based on what's best for the algorithm without it being too much.
Him plugging PokerGo at the end means he’s doing this for work, from the looks of it.
I can understand the river call but can’t get behind the cbet at all. Should be pot control mode right away.
More videos=More money
Respect for posting a hand where you lost big!
Spoilers
@@bentonja668 don’t read the chat until you’re done watching the video dummy
These f**kwits in the comments just stop!
Thanks buddy no point in watching it now
Yea .. would never have known otherwise 🤣
89 got there with a str8 too which I don't think you mentioned at all as a possibility, but it was open ended on the flop.
Can’t wait til you do the hands yesterdays hustler casino live stream wow 🤩 amazing content they had yesterday
I’m even feeling a double upload from you today 🎉
Arent there a ton of Ace high 2 pair?
I can't wait until you reviews Friday's HCL hands. Insanity
Excellent hand analysis as usual
@@Drawfornoone it happens to everyone..but overall Doug is a world class player..
Dug. Great video. I’ve definitely watched it all.
Berkey showed class in this stream. To sit there between doug and nik, and not get out of line in anyway.
showed class by laughing everytime doug and nik were getting needled but having a funeral face when it was his turn to be needled lol
@@tahribadr Actually that's Berkey's default "How to win friends and influence people" face.
@@solverapproved You're not very bright are you? Doug and Nik getting needled was good-natured. Berk was straight getting bullied, and it was not good-natured.
Yeah but he showed absolutely zero class on Joey Ingram's podcast.
Berkey is a queer
You can also bet turn just so Yong has to check river often and you can check it down. Works when you have postition.
Never seen Rob make big bluffs ever!
Is 2pair a bait hand in nlh?
Unlucky
love the content as always!
Yeah that makes total sense
There is no getting around that this was a dreadful call. Almost any decision can be explained away... but this one was a big mistake.
Agreed. There are zillions of hands that have him beat here.
It’s rly not a bad call from theory perspective at all, Doug is completely right when he says if he’s folding this hand too often then he’s getting exploited. But based on the way I’ve seen Rob Yong play, ur completely right, yong is never bluffing here and never has a hand worse than Doug’s so yeah it’s a fold but Doug has a fair point that if he’s letting that go on TV too much then better players can run him over
He blocks the largest/most frequent part of yongs jamming range there which is JJ and 1010 . KQ shuld have 4 bet pre a lot and then def folded the flop almost all the time so it’s a rly hard hand to have there, yongs mainly repping sets and Doug blocks the important ones because YOng isn’t gonna have AA
But I totally agree, he can easily exploit fold this 100% of the time vs rob yong, I’ve never seen that guy bluff so this call is just a straight punt in practice
He is also a very successful poker player and his logic made perfect sense this hand was not that big of a mistake
I think the ads were longer than the video it’s self
Bad call because the shake of the head and followed by check raise is ALWAYS the nuts.
200 000 youtube videos later... (Doug says to himself) Finally, Thanks TH-cam! I'm even.🤣
More like 2 billion views 😂
@@paulmayer8654 10 000 views per video. That sounds about right. 😊
Got enough pokerGo stickers there, Doug?
This analysis was terrific, really shows how proficient at Poker Doug really is.
Why do you have that profile picture?
@@apomerenke Because being an edgy nazi is funny!
@apomerenke he enjoys rolling with losers
@@apomerenke
Maybe he has an interest in history. Lol
The analysis was terrific but he still lost lol.
You got played like a fiddle there Doug. That super quick check from Young on the river and the quick check raise was a dead giveaway he was strong.
1:05 tell lol
Yong licking his lips there when he wins. Doug, you are losing so many big pots. How's your roll?
What about bet bet check?
«Its alot more fun to see what they got»😍
KhQh is the best and also the only KQ combo you should call as you have backdoor NFD, so I disagree with the assessment. This is always a call or check raise!
The notification bell works 🤙
Wouldn’t call that a balanced call. Trip 7s, As, Js, 10s, 8 9, qk, all beat you. As soon as the J came and he called you, he did exploit you for being too aggressive.
The fact that you think he’s c/r river with some of these hands shows you shouldn’t be in this conversation.
@@fenikstechnologies1173 actually am in this conversation, the last bet was just not balanced at all. Betting 50k into 87k, with his chance of winning at less than 15%, you get check raised 4 times your bet and think you're winning, that's not a bluff at all and the ROI is about as bad as it can get. At some point you have to take the other players motives for a check raise in the amount, your raise isn't enough value for my hand at this time is what the bet tells me. Doug even says the other player is a business man, he should have taken that into account.
"As soon as the J came and he called you..." You didn't even watch the video, did you? As soon as the J came, they both checked in a heartbeat. Get your facts straight next time. A's would not go 4-way pleflop and would almost always 4-bet. J's and 10's are blocked, 89 would probably fold to a 3-bet, considering its 89 OOP. 7's are too loose OOP as well. KQ was the main hand he was worried about. Considering Doug bet 1/3 pot on the flop, KQ OOP was a bad call (basically K high with a gutshot on an A high flop), and was less likely.
@@Lapidified yeah he called on the J, him getting the second pair should have made him tingle that he might not have been ahead at all. He could have had aj and not sure if he was ahead or not. It was a big mistake to contininue, when your hand is loosing to a multitude of hands. This is one of the few times I disagree with his line of thinking. I have a big problem with the bet because there are so many hands that beat him and his opponent has kept calling.
@@Lapidified also you have to understand that a second spade came out, so why would I bet when the river could be a spade and I just bet into a hand where a spade puts him into a pickle?
Airball got the most fake laugh in the World.
The analysis about being cr with mid pair in 4 way pot makes the entire hand easy. You fold, your never ahead. Ever. Betting is the play and getting position the rest of the action.
Thanks dude and when was the last time you played with nearly half a million dollars in front of you? Right.
Yong = king DB!
What’s DB? Douchebag?
Yong's a lad
@@DougieBarclay I assume you mean that in an endearing way? I think he’s a lad too but in a not so endearing way… I’m not a fan of poker players acting like tough guys at the table, alot of tables I sit at he would have to catch a fade over that kind of attitude.
Why wouldn't you want an exploitable image? If they think you are exploitable but you don't play that way, isn't your GTO style more effective?
You make this exploitable fold against Rob this time, but not against Berkey or Robl after this airs.
IMO, the line he took was a fold 95% of the time in the river against him
Airball is such a idiot
I have honestly never seen 2 pair good against a river check raise.
Then you’re playing in very good and easy games.
It really means you are playing against people who have no spine to bluff on the river with A high or worse. Just fold to a raise in those situations. Better yet, find tougher tables to improve your game.
@@Lapidified in this hand you need to turn pairs into bluff.
3bet pot, multiway... turn pair into bluff HMmmm not many players will do
@@malazuth3306 my comment wasn't about this hand in particular. Honestly, I probably would have folded on the river if I were in Doug's shoes. But if you've never check raised to bluff someone off 2 pair or better, you've never played real poker.
I believe it's because if you're going to bluff, it's more likely to get through if you open shove. Check raising allows the opponent to commit themselves to the pot, which is of course counterproductive to running a bluff. Therefore a Check-Raise, specifically, is almost NEVER a bluff.
My god, I can't stand Nik....one single bit.
Sometimes it's easier to say you made a bad call. The argument about being exploited and people reviewing TV hands is fully valid but what about Phil Ivey? I've seen Phil fold situations like that on many occasions and AFAIK nobody thinks Ivey is exploitable. Sure, Ivey folds more often than some of the other top pros but Ivey is still amongst the best, right? If it's fine for Ivey to fold here sometimes and call sometimes with a single pair, I think it's fine for Doug to let it go against a tighter opponent who isn't often making wild plays. In a 4-way pot with that action pre I'd think someone had TJ beat, likely AA, AJ, AT, JJ, TT, 77 or QKs. The hand that best fits the argument for how the hand was played is QK with the others likely to start asking questions on the flop or turn to protect themselves against draws. Unless you think your opponent can and will check-raise to bluff against you IMO that was a straight-forward check on the river and fold to the C-R.
Exactly
Drivel
omggg dougpolk ur on stakeking!!!! im going to stake for sure
Are you never checking AK or AQ on the turn? I agree JTs is quite a nice call blocking sets, but isn't AK and AQ pretty good also blocking the nuts? Or I just realized, is AK and AQ too thin on the river?
Man, of course AK/AQ is too thin. It's 87k in the pot after turn in a 3-bet 4-way preflop hand. Say you bet 30-50k on the river with AK/AQ and open yourself to the possibility of getting raised another 100k. Are you comfortable putting 130-150k on the river with one pair, even if it's a pair of aces?
Love your vids Doug......but this video should be titled how to talk yourself into making a bad call. Lol
bet/calling hands you were unsure of betting in the first place seems a bit unwise
Airball cackling...
Calls like this is why we watch more @dougpolk tube vlogs.
Bro, how in Gods name did you miss that amatuerish head shake before he raised you?!
Yea that head shake bs, he should’ve picked up on.
Do you know how vulnerable you would be if all it took was a head shake raise to make you fold
@@tarenfairbrother6038 rob is an amateur. He's not some still faced pro. Have you watched him play before? This must be your first time encountering him. Know your opponents.
Seriously. I can’t believe he’s actually defending his stance in this video in regards to having a balanced range bc he plays on tv. That’s such horse shit and I can’t believe he’s still dumb enough to not see it as clear as day that sometimes it’s more player dependent than simply I have this combination and people watch me play on tv so I have to stay balanced, so “I call”. The shaking of his head prior to the raise and the fact that Rob young nearly never bluffs in general as well as a check raise on the river where 95% of the time ppl just have it. He could’ve and should’ve just said I made a bad call and moved on
Dude you might level yourself with that though. If Rob knows you think his headshake would mean he has a strong hand, he can easily do this with a weak hand and fool you.
Doug, you 3 bet pre, you could raise bigger on the flop representing A10, not even AJ will likely to reraise you.
I don't blame your river call, Yong checked the nut twice, on the turn then river. But that could have been avoided if you raised 37k instead of 17k.
If you get reraise and put in a tough spot on the flop, you lose extra 20k, instead of 200k on the river. But yes, by folding to a reraise on the flop, it lose you your chance to improve your hand.
Ps: I would call 17k too if I were Yong. 60k pot + backdoor flush and gut shot to the nut.
There was no raise on the flop.
@@CanariasCanariass4:17 watch again.
Isn’t JT suppose to fold? You block so many bluffs.. (KT, QT,QJ,KJ).. I would prefer calling with Two pairs that includes an Ace (Ace 7 seems like the best calling hand)
maybe thats how you exploit GTO, knowing that they'd never fold some hands
That was a tough hand to let go especially checking 3 times. Even if he had 2 pair or sets on that board, he will just call and lose the min. Raising to that amount was just enough for a call. I likely would’ve tanked for a long time because I’m a Donk.
You're on the outs!
I usually read several comments before posting my own comment as I don't want to say what has already been said.
With that said, I agree completely with john Ledwith, but I'll go 1 step further after copying his post here:
"john Ledwith 17 minutes ago (edited)
You got played like a fiddle there Doug. That super quick check from Young on the river and the quick check raise was a dead giveaway he was strong."
There are several tells here:
1) Yong checked 3 times, on the flop, turn, & river. If he were to pile it in on the river it would be nuts (or close to it) or bluff.
2) @9:46 Doug bets the river. Yong immediately shakes his head as if this is not good for him (This is a false tell)
3) @9:51 Yong looks at his chip stack. (This is a sign of strength)
4) @9:55 Yong reaches for chips and raises (Clear sign of strength as a bluff would most likely take more time to think)
5) I agree with all of Doug's analysis after that, however the speed in which Yong played his hand on the river is the smoking gun that Doug should have recognized and got away from this hand.
Doug bet 50K on the river and Yong took less than 10 seconds to raise to 200K. There are 10 hands that beat him.
Think about playing a 2/5 game and you bet $500 on the river and get raised to $2,000 in less than 10 seconds.
Bad call IMO.
Lololol omg you actually talked your self into calling a bad rec player, who does not have any of those skills or decision making skills. You leveled yourself into a call???? You dont need to balance against rec players, they do not play gto strat at all. His calculated raise amount is another dead give away. Recs dont understand fhey should just be shoving in this spot, even bad pros like phil h still havent figured this out yet.
Coping so hard you had to make a video lmaoo
At least you had 'fun' to call...(;
Your shirt is full of advertisement logos.
Good call for me haha
Doug...I love that your back and making great content. You have taught me a ton from videos like this. But yeah....it's definitely a fold. You gotta have some live instincts. He gave the mini Hollywood when you bet like he didn't like it. Then he raised you. I am a nerd and have watched Rob and knew he would never bluff this spot. You folded straight against hellmuth. Gotta play your opponent sometimes
Airball’s constant fake laugh is unbearable
Ouch
That was one big spin. I think the first game only pays when the blasting machine lands on the last reel.
I would say dug looks better with his hair down.... I don't understand why he always spikes it up like a kid 😅
the fact that you're so enamored and concerned at his hair says a lot about you
@@slowery43 do you not agree with me though?
Easier said then done but when the guy does the Hollywood tilt the head like he does not like his hand. Then is betting 200k. Something is fishy.
Doug, please be man enough to say that Yong’s cold call of a 3b with KQs OOP is terrible.
I agree with the analysis and the importance of being balanced, and the fact that when you play so many streamed/televised events, it is easy for your opponents to find holes in your strategies.
However.
It seems to me (not a professional by any stretch) that deviating from perfectly balanced play is just fine, esp. when you're playing against an amateur. In fact, it could be good! It might lead your opponents in the future to assume you'll overfold, then try to overbluff check-raise rivers. This of course assumes that we think we have a read on Rob, and that he's unlikely to be balanced with his river check-raises (i.e., he's too value-heavy).
I guess I don't see that balance *overall* dictates that every marginal decision must be balanced as well. I'd like to hear what Doug thinks, or even what other pros think.
EDIT: let me add - I can see a 3rd possibility - the 3rd possibility is to accept that my analysis is largely correct, yet you may still decide that for the sake of disciplined poker play, it is better to avoid deviating from GTO for these marginal spots, for fear that your play overall will become imbalanced.
@@brandonmoore9214 thank you
This entire post is perfect example why we play balanced.
“Might” “may” “could”
We don’t deviate until we have enough time/data on an opponent to say “likely” “probably” “most of the time.”
And you absolutely shouldn’t play unbalanced in the hopes that it will lead your opponent to make mistakes in the future. Unless it’s something extremely cheap and arbitrary. That’s far too much speculation to be profitable.
@@fenikstechnologies1173 I think we are talking past one another.
Doug seemed to be making the argument that even IF you believed your opponent was value-heavy on that river, you should still play balanced. So in this case we're assuming the opponent is not balanced. Obviously if you don't know, then the analysis is worthless.
And your rule about deviating I'm afraid doesn't make sense - it's all about EV. So our willingness to overfold on this river is determined by the bet size, and the marginal propensity of our opponent to bet value-heavy. The closer the spot, the less of a read you should require on your opponent. In other words, it's not a binary do/do not have a read.
Here's what I don't get. If Rob doesn't bluff here, why would you call? Call for everyone else but him. Can't just get stuck in GTO and not change it up based on the player. What am I missing?
You’re assuming he never bluffs here.
Obviously he doesn’t call if he thinks Rob never bluffs or doesn’t value bet worse.
But Doug claimed he calls because even if he rarely bluffs he wants to keep to GTO because of how others will perceive his play and act in the future based on it
@@Rachel-xb3po
Yeah that doesnt make much sense I agree.
He maybe does it to keep his play "continous" in a sense, he maybe wants to stay as close to GTO in all situations and spots just to stay used to it.
Doug is an online guy...he doesnt even take it into consideration apparently lol
Airball annoying
Why did you get skinny, Doug? At XXL, you would have much more ad space on your hoodie.
It's hard to fold two pairs even for pros.
I get his exploitable argument but I think still safe to try and fold the big ones there and still keep your image. He did say was one of the biggest pots. But hey I don't play anymore so why are you reading this 😂
u really have bluffs on the river (87, K9 etc.), when u 3b pre and cbet into 3 or 4 players? Not a lot, if any, I think.
Brutal. I would fold, but your logic seemed solid.
not a sole asked what you might do... this video isn't all about you though you seem to think it is
@@slowery43 LOLOL. Were you just released from prison or something? This is the COMMENT SECTION. It's for people to offer their COMMENTS.
Sorry buddy🐶
Good call...fucking cooler..
GTO is usually meaningless. If you KNOW you're beat... and believe me, it's nearly always damn obvious... just fold. But if you're honestly not sure then call.
I think people on shows are afraid to look bad on a bluff. Id bluff way less.
You learned from your last snap call. Haha good 4 u
I'd have folded, but I'm a nit.
It's not that big a lay down lol. Forget Broadway, ANY two pair combo loses value when you don't have an Ace & an Ace is on board. The myriad of aces up combos are the real problem & the threat of any set or Broadway; easy enough to fold.
Obviously, Doug's a GREAT player. However, his justification for a call here is ludicrous. GTO is great, but it's most valuable against opponents with balanced ranges. Against players with imbalanced ranges, you want to play exploitative poker. If Rob is almost never bluffing here, then Doug should fold. Let's take it 1 step further: if Doug saw his cards, would he still call just to balance his ranges? Of course not! Poker is about making the best decision given all the available information.
The argument that Doug makes about other players seeing him fold here makes him more exploitable is completely false. It actually works in his favor for others to think that way! Let's say JRB sees this fold by Doug and then tries to make a similar move on him in the future. Against JRB, Doug calls (for all the reasons he called here). So not only does a fold here save Doug 200K, but it might make him another 200K by inducing a bluff on a future hand. You want your opponents to try exploiting a weakness that you don't have!
Imagine playing poker against 2 other players. One of them always bluffs and the other never does. By folding big hands to the nit, you make the bluffer feel like they can bluff you. By bluff-catching the bluffer, you make the nit scared to bluff you. You want to encourage players to keep playing exploitable poker. GTO comes in when you don't know your opponent, or know that they play balanced poker.
Tell us you don’t understand poker theory without telling us you don’t understand poker theory.
Your entire post is speculative in nature and very bad.
@Feniks Technologies lol...okay
If a specific player isn't likely to be bluffing in a specific situation, then calling in that situation is bad. Doug can still apply GTO decision-making to every other situation. Folding here has zero impact on his overall strategy.
@@fenikstechnologies1173
Instead of just saying his post is bad, why won't you say WHY his post is bad?
He gave examples and his logic seems sound. Where is the mistake, please enlighten us.
I love how you’re promoting PokerGO completely neglecting the fact that you bashed them for dicking over all of their subscribers not too long ago
OK. Meta game reasons make sense. Maybe you could have folded just this once though :)
No comments.
basically it's a good call because it's on tv for everyone to see.
your attempt at trying to be funny failed miserably
@@slowery43 i lol'd
Something has to be said about the snap check on the river. Its a massive tell after checking turn. Even Nick (shulman) eludes to it being slippery, makes him look suler eager to c/r, and forgot to breath before doing so
Missed it doug, tough luck on the hand
This is one of those hands had it happened to someone else, Doug would definitely claim, (in my Doug Polk voice,) "Its a hand you just have to fold"😂😂😂
I doubt that. That's the sort of thing he says when something is a terrible call. Not when it's close.
@@matthewwestcott9138 That was a terrible call lol
@@lloydchristmas1086 No it wasn't lol
@Lloyd Christmas Oh, lol you just hate Doug. And you're trolling his videos. Sad. Sorry, I thought you were being serious.
@@matthewwestcott9138 is that what you gathered from that huh? You're a special kind
Suggestion Doug, can you let the hand play out first then after do a break down of the hand. That way we can see the full hand first and maybe figure out why in our heads then we hear what you think!
C'mon Doug that was a terrible call.
Easy river fold.
King queen of hearts, ace hearts is on the board. What about hitting any heart on the turn?
Everything you said is true in theory, but I think you are more defending your call. People are claiming rob does not have enough bluffs. He probably does not have enough bluffs, or he possibly has no bluffs. The only issue I have with it is if you fold the 107 straight to Phil this all falls apart. If your you were in the hand with airball or someone with bluffs it all makes sense. For all the reason you stated you can not fold the straight.
There is no defending this stream. airball made it completely unwatchable.
Nik Airball dear god he’s a tough one to watch lol
You leveled yourself. It's Rob Yong and he isn't pulling a wizard play like this. If you're just gonna do GTO, then you're gonna make mistakes.
And how in Gods name did he miss that head shake by rob? Exploitative 90% of the time. Suck out the other 10%.