Is J.J. McCarthy a Top 5 Pick? (JJ McCarthy Scouting Report) (2024 NFL Draft) (Minnesota Vikings)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 พ.ย. 2024
- In this Scouting Report / Draft Profile, we'll discuss one of the most polarizing players in the 2024 NFL Draft: Michigan Quarterback JJ McCarthy. He's recently found himself at the top of mock drafts, alongside the likes of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels. In this video, we'll discuss his strengths and weaknesses and maybe it'll help you come to your own conclusion as to whether he's worth a top 5 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
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I do not claim ownership of the clips used in this video. The use of the clips, arranged in a particular manner in this video, constitutes a transformative fair use and is used for educational purposes.
*4/18/24 Update - I've watched more tape of McCarthy and have given him a pretty significant bump. I have a very harsh grading scale and he is now an early 2nd round pick for me (without adjusting for positional value). I could definitely see more upside with him now and I've updated my rankings to reflect that. However, I'll leave my original comment below so you can see my initial thoughts.
So, what do you think? Are the mock drafts that have JJ McCarthy in the top 5 justified? Is he worth taking over other QBs such as Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye? Should a team like the Broncos or Vikings trade up to get him, or sit back and take a comparable QB later in the draft? I'd love to know your thoughts! Personally, I don't value McCarthy as a top 5 pick or even a first round pick. All picks in the NFL draft are a balance of risk and upside. I could see him becoming a high-level QB and believe he has the mentality to do so, but I don't know if its worth the risk to pass over so many excellent players in the first round of this draft. Without adjusting for positional value, I have him as an early third round pick, but I'd be shocked if he fell past the second round. Hopefully he proves me wrong!
hes nowhere near the qb that daniels or maye is, if hes taken high its purely because of the massive qb demand this offseason-daniels is a questionable prospect but he at least has some major upsides. mccarthy and nix are both solid athletes who are good at attacking the middle of the field for a shanahan style offense, thats not worth a first round pick let alone a top 5 one, this one could def get a gm fired
@@kara6020 I generally agree that I don't think he's in the same range of prospect as Daniels and Maye. I think his upside is around where Daniels's upside is, but he has more risk than Daniels, which lowers him. I do agree that he'd be an excellent fit in a Shanahan style offense attacking the middle, especially if he can improve his ball placement to better hit WRs in stride and maximize YAC opportunities, which is the bread and butter of those offenses. I think he'll only get a GM fired if there is a massive reach for him, but if he falls into the second round I think that'd be a solid swing of the bat for a team. Thanks for commenting!
So he's basically the opposite of Bo Nix 😂
Haha, how so?
Honestly love the breakdown. The only things i inherently disagree with is that im higher on his physical tools then you are and i have a mid first on him compared to your early third. You pretty much hit pretty much all of his strengths and weaknesses which is why even though i disagree I dont have much to argue against you. You absolutely earned the sub i just gave you
Thank you so much, I really appreciate that! I think if I was a bit higher on his physical tools, I'd likely have him in that range too so that is a very fair point. I always try to backup anything I say on this channel with film (atleast until I get big enough to get all the copyright strikes that the other youtubers get), but I never mind if people respectfully disagree so always feel free to leave your comments on videos so we can discuss!
I will be honest I’m a Bears fan and the hype is ridiculous for Caleb. But old Bears fans like me remember Jim McMahon gave us a Super Bowl just because he was that dude!!!!
Nice breakdown. Keep up the good work.
Thank you, I really appreciate it!
Odunze and Nabers is the answer to many of the negatives and coms to Daniels and Penix. If JJ had either of these...it wouldnt even be fair
Interesting point! I could see him being a better jump ball thrower if he has a WR like Odunze to help him develop. Odunze is one of the best jump ball WRs in this draft (21 for 28 on contested catches!!). My counterpoint would be that, if someone is a top 5 pick, you ideally want them to be good enough to not have to rely on the talent of other players to overcome their own weaknesses. But I get the overall point that you're making that Daniels has someone to do that in Nabers and is considered a better QB prospect.
@@TheJumboPackage JJ won 2 HS State Titles. He won the HS Natty. JJ won 2 B1G Championships and a CFB Natty. He went 27-1. If you think the team carried him then why did his Michigan teammates vote him MVP? Why is Harbaugh touting him? To play games with the draft- maybe- but your assumption is that Harbaugh doesnt believe what he is saying. That is incorrect. Harbaugh 100% believes JJ is QB1. If the Chargers didnt have Herbert, JH would be after JJ. Look at JH's resume- do you think he doesnt know football? He knows more than 99.99% of the ppl out there. And people should remember that when they discard what he says.
@@Michigan_Wolverine please rewatch the video and reread my comment because I never said that he was carried. You’re arguing against a point that I never made. I actually explicitly stated in the video that I didn’t believe in that narrative, despite it being the consensus narrative on McCarthy. In my comment, I was replying to your original comment where you said that Odunze and Nabers hid the weaknesses of Penix and Daniels and that, if JJ had those guys, it wouldn’t be fair. What I said in my comment was that you ideally want to see a top 5 player play at an elite level without having elite talent surrounding him because it shows that they can elevate their teammates and that their own weaknesses won’t drag the team down (rather than getting bailed out by other elite talent). That comment does not directly state or imply that McCarthy was carried.
@@TheJumboPackage I wasnt arguing with you. More making a general point of what is talked about on the web.
@@Michigan_Wolverine Ahh I see. When you wrote "you," I thought you were actually addressing those questions to me, but I see what you mean now in that you were using it non-specifically, which I do all the time. Can definitely be a little bit confusing over text - my mistake! Thanks for commenting and watching!
Incredible video, this channel will definetly blow up
Thank you, I really appreciate that! Hope you're right!
Good content man. Overall, a pretty fair assessment on McCarthy. I personally find myself much higher on McCarthy and he's the QB I've said I'd feel most comfortable with hitching my wagon too if I was an NFL GM. Many of the weaknesses you mentioned (to me of course) reflect a young kid who traded ample opportunities to test (and refine) his arm talent for experience living an NFL simulation lifestyle (the yoga, mental coach, bluest CFB program, pro coaching staff, best defensive CFB conference, etc.) while gaining comfort with NFL like requisite skills (setting protections, under center footwork/timing, working NFL like passing concepts).
He's got plenty of warts in his game (so do all the QBs in this class and almost every other sans an Elway or Luck QB class). I just think when you consider the skillset, there's tremendous upside that I felt you may have seen differently and discounted a bit.
He's got tape outrunning cover 0 and beating defenders to the edge that should have EVERY reason to stop him due to pursuit angle, speed, etc. He's got tape shrugging off Travon Walker at what was definitely closer to sub 200 lbs. He's got tape striping an intermediate curl/out to his left on Kelee Ringo. Subpar decision making you'd say, and yet he's got tape reading (and beating) simulated pressures with hot droppers.
Please don't mistake this as an attack on your evaluation as we're all certainly entitled to our own opinion and as mentioned at the top, I believe your report was mostly fair. I just think in the Rorschach test of prospect evaluation, you're seeing red, I may be seeing blue, and it may end up the inevitable outcome of purple that you referenced in the extreme (in either way) every being truly the final outcome.
Either way man, keep up the good work!
Hey man, thanks for the kind comments! I actively encourage civil disagreement in the comments, so I definitely don't take it as an insult or attack on my character, so no worries there at all - we get to the truth from hearing different perspectives! Overall I took your comment to be an extremely positive one and I love hearing that people enjoy my content, even when they don't always agree with me! (Nor should people always agree with me either as none of us are 100% on our scouting lol).
I'm not sure if you've read many of the other comments on this video, but I've had some discussions with other subscribers who have disagreed with me and they've changed my perspective a bit on McCarthy, making me believe that he has more upside than I initially thought. With that being said, I don't think I view him quite to the level that you do, but that comes with the inherent subjectivity in the tape. I think for me, I don't see as much upside because plays that I'd classify as the "elite" level plays were few and far between. For example, one person with McCarthy's tape may think that, although there weren't many elite plays, he showed that level of play before, therefore that is what he could be in the NFL. Another person with the same tape may say that the sample size of elite play isn't large enough to project that level of upside in the NFL. Still another might disagree that the sample size of elite play was small. Although I agree that McCarthy has more upside than I gave him credit for in this video, I still think I align more with the second person in my example because I don't think there were enough elite plays to make me confident that he'll be able to hit an elite ceiling. Thats not to say he can't be a good or even a great NFL QB, I just don't think its likely that he becomes an elite or top 5 guy. It very well might just be because I tend to be more cautious and pessimistic, which is where the subjectivity of evaluations comes in.
Ultimately, even if I don't agree with the upside that you project for McCarthy, I appreciate your perspective and I genuinely hope that you're right that I was being too dismissive of his ceiling. I'd love to see him prove me wrong as he seems like an excellent individual with high character!
Watched some more tape of McCarthy and just gave him a pretty significant bump!
@@TheJumboPackage love to read that. What changed for you? What film did you watch?
@@JordanSilveira23 I think I have a bit more confidence in his arm strength and ability to read the field than I did before. I still go back and forth on his overall accuracy, but I think that can be fixed, especially with his work ethic!
@@TheJumboPackage totally. His accuracy is an issue of footwork and over striding on his base as he tries to drive balls with velocity. As he learns to layer and add more touch and different clubs to his bag, I don't think you'll see the over striding
Moreover, the accuracy can be a challenge when he's asked to deliver after he's not thrown for the last 20 minutes of game time.
Hey JJ, our gameplan blew up and despite running power and blast 5 out of the last 6 times. We finally got stopped and it's 3rd and 8. Need you to deliver a 15 yard out to the far hash...
That was JJs life far too often
Man, you were pretty picky with the accuracy complaint. You could of made Tom Brady seem inaccurate by overanalyzing it that much. I agree with his touch and long ball issues though (similar problems). Kaepernick always struggled with touch until he got black balled by the league and it kept him from being an elite QB.
Personally I see why the league is high on JJ though. High character, plays well in structure and has room for growth with his tools and supposedly the work ethic make good on it. If he can learn to throw with touch better I think he'll be great. As I'm confident he'll get better at most the issues you highlighted aside from touch: processing, decision making, timing, footwork, so on.
Thanks for commenting! On the first point, I'd disagree that I was being too picky. If someone is viewed as a potential top 5 pick, you have to be critical of their game and I found that he had a higher sample size of throws where the ball placement was poor. In the NFL, windows are much tighter and being even an inch off where the ball needs to be could be the difference between a completion, PBU, or interception. I agree with your point in that anyone could make anyone look like anything if they only show clips that advance their narrative, but its unfortunately the nature of the beast with these types of videos as I can't show every possible play I looked at and discuss them all individually (I'm not implying that you asked me to do that, because you did not, I'm just saying that its difficult to find that balance). Ultimately, film watching will always be subjective to a certain point and I don't believe I was being over critical, but instead was judging him by the high standard that NFL QBs have to meet. We'll have to agree to disagree on that point.
Otherwise, thats a really fascinating point about Kaepernick! I honestly hadn't thought about that, but you're absolutely right that he was excellent throwing lasers, but struggled to throw with touch. I could see why the league is high on McCarthy too - if I met him and he were anything like he's portrayed to be, he would definitely move up my draft board because a lot of what makes QBs great is their work ethic and demeanor, which it seems that he has. I'm sure he can work out the kinks in his game, but I just find that there is a bit too much risk for me to take him in the early first. I think he'll be particularly good if he starts in a good situation and is gradually given more responsibility over time as he improves.
I kinda agree that you're being too picky. Williams, Daniels, and Maye all have similar issues and are projected to go top 5 as well.
I've watched some other people break down JJs tape and quite a few examples that you showed in this video had more to do with the WRs running poor routes. Outside of Roman Wilson, Michigan didn't really have too many standout receiving options.
I do agree that McCarthy is a project though and taking some time for him to learn would be best. This is why I hope the Vikings get him. He won't be forced to start right away and will have an amazing surrounding cast.
@@TheJumboPackage Thanks for the long reply! Your channel is small, but already one of my favorites.
It's a bit of a myth NFL QBs are crazy accurate, watch the many pro bowl skills comps over like 30+ years and you'll see past QBs not named Aaron Rodgers aren't pin point accurate, usually missing most fairly wide targets. Even Brady was off quite a bit every game, he was just good at being off in the right spots (low and away from the defense where only his WR could get it). Watching JJs tape for the year he just had 2 spells of inaccuracy. One early in the year (when he threw 2 picks at once) and one mid year in a game, I forget which one, when he was inaccurate several throws to start a game. Otherwise, he was pretty good. It was nothing like Maye who was constantly wildly off target, JJ just attempted more tight window throws, so slight misses seemed off. Not really sure why that was, maybe the passing offense wasn't well constructed or outside Roman Wilson the WRs didn't get that open.
As I said, I think you're very good at this, but I think you got to be a tad careful over analyzing film you're picking through with a fine tooth comb as accuracy is complex to analyze. For instance, it was actually a bit of a misnomer Josh Allen was inaccurate in college (or the pros for that matter) as well. He just attempted so many tight window throws as his Wyoming WRs didn't really get open. And in the pros Allen's overconfidences to fit balls in tight windows still plagues him, not his inaccuracy. I'm more worried about Maye as most his completions on tape were wide open players running long deep crossers and dump downs. He had very few tight window shorter to mid crossers and a high percentage of the ones he had were wildly off target where you don't have to over analyze them on film to see it. And as you said in your break down of Maye, he constantly dove out of clean pockets when he didn't need to. The combination of poor mechanics leading to constant horrible accuracy issues and terrible pocket presence make me much more concerned about Maye then McCarthy at the next level. It was very reminiscent of Sam Darnold and Blake Bortles tape. Tantalizing talent, but all the signs of a bust are there, people are just ignoring them.
@@jeffx40 I’m really glad that my channel is one of your favorites, that really means a lot to me! And it goes without saying, but I really appreciate the discussion because I love talking football with level-headed individuals like yourself. I think you do make an excellent point about NFL QBs in that they aren’t as pin point accurate as people make them out to be. I hadn’t really considered this when scouting tbh because I always get in the mindset of “the margins are thinner in the NFL,” but perhaps I overemphasize that point. There actually has been a growing debate I’ve seen about the value of being able to get the ball “in the area” vs throwing with perfect ball placement - Obviously perfect ball placement gives you a higher floor and allows you to elevate the talent around you because you make their job way easier with perfectly placed balls (even if its only 50% of the time that you do it), but getting the ball in the area is obviously significant too in that you’re always giving your WR an opportunity to make a play on the ball, even if it isn’t perfectly placed. Thinking through that point, I have to say that I didn’t find many times where McCarthy was completely off a target (like every QB, there were some plays where he was, but no more or less so than the usual QB prospect). His accuracy struggled heavily on out routes and vertical throws, but otherwise he always got the ball “in the area” on his targets to other areas of the field. So I think you’ve opened my mind a bit about the significance of that. I still stand by my assessment of the tape itself in that he’s not being pinpoint accurate, BUT I agree with you on the point that I overemphasized this as a severe negative when its really a way smaller issue on most of his throws. I do think he’ll need to work on his vertical throws and throws to outs though as he did struggle to convert them at the rate I normally see for QB prospects, but I expect this to come in time.
I’ve been worrying about Maye a lot recently too. In my Jayden Daniels video, I had mentioned that I regretted putting out my Maye video so early because he hadn’t had his rough stretch of games at the back end of the season and iirc, I put accuracy or ball placement as one of his strengths. I completely disagree with that now as I’ve gotten to watch more games of him. I did mention in that video that his footwork and mechanics were poor and that he drifted too much in the pocket, and I completely agree with you that his accuracy can be wildly off target at times (usually for those reasons). This seems to be the reason that most retired pocket-passer types (e.g., Kurt Warner, JT O’Sullivan) have concerns with Maye and I tend to agree with that concern. Unfortunately the videos always have to cement my opinion at a given point in time, but my opinions are very fluid depending on new information and I’ve been definitely seeing the bust potential with Maye more recently. Not to say that he’ll be a bust, but the potential is there - its always so difficult to strike the balance with these guys because their ability to progress depends so heavily on their work ethic, mindset, situation, and whether they can be paired with a coach who can teach it in a way to them that makes sense and allows them to implement what they learn when things don’t go as planned. Ultimately, the ranking of players will always be pretty subjective given a person’s risk tolerance. When comparing Maye and McCarthy, Maye has higher upside, but McCarthy has a higher floor and still has high upside.
@@tmenke88 Fair point about the WRs themselves - I've went back a bit and watched and its possible that some of these balls that are not perfectly placed would be much better throws if his WRs were a few inches taller. I did address the point about being too picky below, if you'd like to read my response to jeff. I think McCarthy would be an excellent fit for the VIkings because he'd have the coaching and the talent around him to succeed. When paired with his work ethic and mature mindset, I could genuinely see him becoming a top tier QB! Thanks for leaving a comment and letting me know your thoughts!
We need to see your mock draft
I have one on my second channel! It is pretty old at this point (pre-free agency), but I do discuss many of the first round players in it.
Lack of quality WR's. Watch his IMG tape