How Tesla Can Achieve 50% Growth Still
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ต.ค. 2023
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Great to see you back Lee. Unparalleled and original evaluation. Much appreciated 🤝🤝🤝
Good to see you again. We have missed you! Thank you for your bright insight.
LEE!! Nice to see you back!! Thanks for the great presentation and your hard work!! Greetings from Canada.GIDDYUP!!
Hit 200k today. I'm really grateful for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in June 2022
Inspiring! I would really love to know how much work you did put in to get to this stage
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Wow! Wow please is there any way to reach there services?
Lee, do u know how hard it is to find a good *sober* bull on Tesla. I am so grateful that you clearly discuss the negatives as well as the positives. Thank you!!!;)
Yes, was wondering where you were Lee - glad to see you on to keep us Bulls from getting too giddy and irrational :) I think we will see the stock move a bit with Highland and Cybertruck, but since most of the EV value is already baked in, we won't see a big move until some new pillar takes flight like AI or Energy Storage.
Agree the ramp of 4680 so far is very slow.
Love your content!
Thanks!
There a huge quantities of equipment arriving everyday at Austin and have been for many many months. These are not ornaments they are production equipment which will be utilised to increase production as they are installed, commissioned and integrated. It’s not an overnight process. Watch the flyovers and accept the evidence. There is much unfinished capacity in Austin and Berlin.
Where you been? Haven’t seen a video from you in a long time
LFT is also a better choice for stationary battery buffer products like Megapack as LFP is more durable in terms of charging cycles.
Lee,
the Semi -truck has been introduced Dec04’22, and we got only 70 units since then?
Because of the IRA , Tesla is trying get the benefit from it.
This is why CATL factory batteries are going to be use only outside US,
if they have to use CATL batteries 🪫 there aren’t incentives from IRA to Tesla Inc.
If you use batteries made in US, Canada or Mexico 🇲🇽 then you get some incentive for Tesla Inc.
Energy storage division is growing faster then EV division, and profits are growing as well, I think 🤔?
I have full confidence in Elon & Tesla Inc. team to juggle the batteries 🔋 and incentives issues?
I'm thinking they have to ramp up lithium minining, refining and battery cell production BEFORE they start building out more giga factories?
50% A V E R A G E dude. Will happen.
Missed you! Where did you go?!!
Wish Tesla would design and build a mid/small pickup and use the y's skate board!?
Why not consider mass production of battery packs for use in Shanghai and Berlin?
Hi Lee, i hope, that will happen.
It appears the first stage of the new CATL factory near Giga Shanghai is complete, but has no battery equipment or employees. It was mothballed as Tesla still has not had land approved for new factories for MY and Megapacts. China has too much capacity and foreign companies appear unable to get land for new plants. Tesla appears to have gone back to high exports to prove it is a foreign exchange earning machine and reduced local sales a little. Tesla earning more brownie points for its land applications.
Tesla & Elon were very clear about their growth rate being CAGR from 2020. Therefore the 50% growth rate for 2023 suggests 1.69million sales.
2020 sales = 500k
2021 CAGR = 750k (actual = 936k)
2022 CAGR = 1.13 million (actual = 1.3 mil)
2023 CAGR = 1.69 million (current trailing 12 months actual = 1.73 mil)
As you can see, Tesla's growth rate is better than on track. However 2024's 50% CAGR target is 2.5 mil sales, so that may be a challenge at least.
This aged like milk. Even Elon poopooing on 50% growth.
The fact the CATL has a massive stationary storage division (and recently beat out tesla for the new largest stationary storage site ever built in Australia), why would they sell batts to tesla when they could undercut price on all stationary storage contracts going forward? Hopefully Tesla has already signed massive contracts with CATL to purchase huge amounts of batts over the next several years. I also hope tesla is currently and aggressively working on in-house LFP/LFMP/M3P battery development.
Because CATL doesn't have the BESS brand recognition in the west, including some countries may outright do business with a Chinese company. If CATL truly can offer BESS at lower price, then the problem will take care of itself, no need to piss off your largest customer.
Thank you for always going deeper into perspectives that are not covered by others. Much appreciated!
PROJECTION - Tesla Q3 earnings call… will be like past 3 yrs of Q’s (1) Hyped up talk about future developments, (2) mention of delays (including cybertruck delay until 2024, no doubt), (3) No compelling and no high-flying financial growth stated in the Q financials (4) numbers won’t be too far off consensus est’s (5) stock will drop 2-3% during the day and after-hours. Done!
I think Tesla doesn’t advertise because it can’t produce as fast as demand.
Every time Tesla can produce more , it reduces prices instead.
think what would happen if Tesla wouldn't reduce the price
@@sender5804 hmm , I suppose sales wouldn’t increase as planned.
Tesla wants 50% yoy growth, so far so good.
@@benjaminsaravia I'd rather have slower growth but higher profits
@@sender5804
Sir, You must a trillionare by now
Do we like Tesla,? Neutral? Short?
Didn’t Tesla announce a Shanghai Megapack factory? 9:39 sorry, I didn’t think you’d take 9 minutes to get to the punch line😂
Giga Shanghai may double its production capacity to 2 million cars a year. Berlin and Austin are very disappointing comparing to Shanghai. China is still the factory of the world.
Its average 50% over MULTI-YEAR-HORIZON! 😁
😎👍
Good luck ever talking BMW fans down from their perch… those guys are sold on bearing that logo no matter what the price 😅.
Elon and the previous master of coin, stated in many earnings calls that the 50% growth rate would be an average YOY year after year. They clearly said some years would be lower and some higher. Tesla never said that it would hit 50% YOY year after year.
It would be moronic to assume Elon is moronic. It would be moronic to advertise a product that is production restricted which you suggest is because of batteries. It would be moronic to advertise in order to hike prices on a product you want to make more affordable in order to expand the market. Lucid spent a billion dollars on advertising and their sales halved whilst increasing their production costs. GM and Ford spent billions on advertising vehicles they didn’t have and their sales went down. Tesla spent near zero and their sales went up 50% whilst decreasing their production costs. They also increased their customer loyalty AND software platform.
(I don't know why TH-cam has failed to add these videos to the lists they present me. Instead it's right wing garbage, click bait, and other stuff I never ever watch. So I apologize Lee for not keeping up.) So I'm late to this.
Lee's covered batteries. What I can add is that I don't think we've been shown by Musk or Tesla a clear expansion plan for battery raw materials. Instead there's a deal here and there. I'm sure there is a plan. It's probably just as much as possible and then a lot more. While the plans for increase in battery production seem precisely calculated I suspect that for raw materials it's more open ended. (Let me predict that Tesla will hit $1000/share when they sign the contract to supply other vehicle makers. Mary Bara making another boast about how GM is still going to conquer the EV world, with Tesla 4680s, FSD, Tesla Induction motors, Tesla Superchargers.... Okay by me.)
Today 2 January 2024 Tesla announced 4th quarter production/deliveries. So 2023 was 1.8 million, a record - no surprise.
I was wondering, what happen to that +50%/year? I assumed because the other Tesla channels haven't mentioned it in quite some time that Tesla has fallen short. So I did a little research. Tesla/Musk set this goal in 2016 when they produced/delivered 76,000 Ss and Xs. This was 50% over 2015. 2017 was only an increase of 35%. If you don't remember that was the year of Model 3 Production Hell. The year after the increase was 138%. Together Tesla caught up and surpassed 50%YOY. The last two yesrs 2022 and 2023 were 40% and 41%, but 2021 was +81%.
So as of the end of last year 2023. Had Tesla kept to its +50%YOY the total would have been 1.3m EVs, they beat that by half a million.
What other EV company, or vehicle manufacturer of any type, made a hugely ambitious projection in 2016 and then beat it over the following 8 years?
Looking forward. Musk recently said that they didn't start delivering Cybertrucks earlier because of the worldwide shortage of components. So it's at least a year late -- it's still the most advanced vehicle of any type in the world and is likely to remain so until Tesla refreshes its other models or releases something else.
The other thing Musk said last year was that the high Federal Interest rate was keeping car loans high which discouraged the vast middle of the car market where the monthly payment is the deciding factor. Federal Interest Rates are now not going any higher, inflation has been checked, so as this rate drops the car market will improve with Tesla sales improving.
It's becoming widely understood in the U.S. and probably around the world, that if you can afford the initial cost of buying a Tesla, over time you will save a lot more money than if you buy a much cheaper gas or hybrid car.
This is looking like another great year for Tesla and Tesla investors. Though the shorters might be planning a strike so they can steal some of TSLAs greater than 100% rise last year. I'm just going to hold and wait, buy more at the drop if possible. And my best investment advice is hardly unique: Just invest in the smartest company and wait. Always bet on the nerds. Happy New Year.
I think you should check out I cannot underscore_enough and check his figures. As to your incredulity check out the 4680 ramp and production numbers they now have achieved 10 million increase in shorter and shorter times.🤔
Not at all incredulity, there is no evidence of any such increase. And even at the current rate, it has a negligible impact on aspect of the business. I don't know anyone else in the community who understands the economics and impact of the 4680 cell. It is nothing to yet get excited about.