Unavoidable Crisis Ahead: We Have Too Much Debt That We Can't Afford | Matt Piepenburg
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ส.ค. 2024
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When asked last month if the US economy was heading into stagflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he didn't see the "stag" nor the "flation" in the data he looks at.
Well, US Q2 GDP growth estimates as forecasted by the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now service are plunging.
And Q1's weak reported GDP growth rate of 1.6% was revised further downwards to a paltry 1.3%
That's some "stag" right there.
And CPI remains quite sticky at 3.3%, solidly higher than it was 9 months ago. So that's some "flation"
To learn how to protect the purchasing power of your wealth in an increasingly stagflationary environment, we're fortunate to be joined today by Matt Piepenburg of Von Greyerz Gold.
#debt #goldprice #currency
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This guest had me mesmerized. He articulated without one wasted word the entire global conudrum. Best interview ever!
Like meatloaf said you took the words right out of my mouth
I agree 100 percent. His thinking and intelligence is outstanding!
When is this guy coming back? One of the best evaluations of the economy I heard on this channel and I have watched this program very often. He was phenomenal!
The realest rant I’ve heard all year. We will be playing this back in 2028.
Back? What year are you currently living in?
Debt is borrowed labor. The US has wrung up 34 Trillion is borrowed labor or productivity. Think about the immorality of stealing the future labor of the people.
Thanks for having Matt on the channel - he's so insightful and articulate in his common sense views of reality.
this guy is totally grounded 😮
Always great guests, but Matt is probably my favorite. Knowledge, presentation, interaction...he is fantastic. He needs to be on more often. Ke3p up the good work, Adam.
This interview with Matt was profound, intense and riveting. Combine this with the content of the recent Fred Hickey interview, and you really have the true economic conditions and status of the U.S. Cannot say enough about these two interviews. So many Wall Street experts continue to put their heads in the sand and live in denial.
34 to 36 minute of this video is absolutely what everyone needs to understand.
Matt is one of my favorite guests on this channel. Awesome interview as always! Thanks, Adam!
I wish to encourage young people out there struggling.
I have worked two jobs for 50 years but despite the poor salary I will be able to retire at age 75 this year.
I look forward to about 7 years of retirement so it still is possible to retire.
Yes but because of housing they will never have children and there will be no one to care for them in old age. They will be in a much worse situation additionally because there will be no social security left by the time they are your age. Not trying to be dramatic but we will be a second world country by the time a person who is 20 now turns 75…. If they live that long under the stress and depression of their estate.
50 years, working 2 jobs
just to retire for 7 years in poverty
if you even live that long.
Not something to emulate..
@@mth469 I hope my sarcasm was evident..the new American dream of living to work for the governments spending.
Hope you are just as confident in a few years. To me, there is no such thing as certainty.
🤦🏼♂️
You don’t own gold unless you can hold it in your hands. A peice of paper will not be honored.
I'm 69, retired and "comfortable" ... own my house, low debt .... I was always a positive, see a way out type ... but each day I see no progress on this debt bomb .... I don't see this ending well ... I'm glad I bought gold and silver back in 2012 ... when I saw this coming ... I knew a couple of wall street guys who survived the crash of 1929 ... people forget that before the crash ... "everything was fine" .... leveraged to the hilt, overpriced, and damn the torpedo's
That’s really interesting that you knew Wall Street men who were around in 1929.
Then your spouse is diagnosed with cancer and it all unravels and your living in a camper: th-cam.com/video/HpnycehXFP4/w-d-xo.html&t
What did they do with their money to avoid the calamity of 1929? Were they all cash?
Most people don’t want to do what is necessary. You have to get rid of your debt. If you have debt on your house sell it and buy a cheaper house. If you have debt on your car… same thing. Then wait for the ridicule, the pressure from family the self doubt as it all Kees going up.
Uh, you realize that your gold and silver has been absolutely destroyed by the stock market since 2012?
one of your best guests
Ed Yardeni..."S&P to 8,000"
Danielle DiMartino...."The recession started 9 months ago."
What the....
Right? As long as the Fed is the 4th arm of the government and they are in cahoots with the government the melt up can keep going….until during and around election time.
Piepenburg is one of my favourites. The country I reside started a per capita recession Jan 23. June will be 6 consecutive quarters of per capita recession. Rates on hold since November 23. I expect to remain on hold all of 24 due to Fiscal/ monetary impasse. Some frogs have boiled, some are cooking and some are sunbathing on a log.
Such straightforward and honest talk!
Adam ,Matt is nothing but brilliant , thanks
My new favorite guest for the show. I wasn't familiar with Mr. Piepenburg but his explanation of the state of our economy was the best I've heard.
I watch almost all your interviews and this was one of my favourites
Great Job !!! Always enjoy Mr. Piepenburg - Thank You Adam Taggart & Matt Piepenburg
I've been a longtime follower of Adam Taggart, but something's bugged me about his guests. Most seem isolated from global realities. They acknowledge America's overspending on the world stage, but cling to the belief that U.S. dominance will persist. I predict a harsh wake-up call for Americans in the near future.
I agree. So many people keep saying that the US is the largest economy in the world. I think that is a very dangerous delusion and it hasn't been true for over 20 years. If you said that anywhere in Asia, the people would laugh at you.
Biggest economy because we have borrowed😮 trillions
The BRICS nations will be the biggest economy if the American people 😢 don't come together and fight/push to build a parallel economy. Those in the BRICS countries don't or like eachother. But they're coming together to preserve / build a stable economy.
What country does not have a debt crisis
@@johndunham9979 The difference is most of the global south has the demographics and productivity gap to dig themselves out of it.
Hell of an interview , thank you
We need to elect better leadership! This guys is smarter than any politician currently in Washington right now!
If we could reroute all the money that's out towards electing all those idiots we might get somewhere with that and with the debt. People are paying to keep this debt going, and they're paying for the opinions people have about it, which is what gets the same people elected year in and out. We could be out of this debt problem in as little as 2-4 years, but we'd have to make some serious internal enemies for that to happen. Talking about sequestering military for a few years; nationalizing big pharma and the insurance companies; and maybe some austerity for those that laughed off with the benefits and cream of the status quo for the last 50 years. $40 trillion was made off from the middle class. That money is still around in plain sight, as well as some of it off shore. The problem is that we want these problems, we've been trained to want them. It's very cheap to manipulate the masses. We're gonna be like UK is today in 20-30 years, maybe sooner. We might as well start outsourcing our government to foreign countries.
The current election process requires $$ multi-millions and thus only the wealthy can apply. Otherwise, you must compromise to get enough money to run a campaign.
Best video yet on the new channel IMO.
I am a PhD economist who studied inflation early in my career and will tell you that this is a phenomenon which has no coherent theory. As with the stock market level there is a psychological aspect that interacts with the push-pull fundamentals that makes it unmodelable.
The fact that not one of the economists drawing huge paychecks
sitting at central banks
saw what was coming in 2008
tells me all i need to know.
These guys would not be able to predict
which way an apple goes (up or down)
if it fell from a tree.
They put out sound bytes at press conferences
telling people what is already obvious after its already past.
Yes, it's very tough to model economic psychology, and probably impossible to model it confidently enough to plug into any predictive model. But I do believe there is a coherent theories on inflation as a monetary phenomenon. All this push-pull nonsense confuses the fact that inflation reflects the relationship between the supply of credit and the supply of goods and services. Just hard to measure until after the fact.
Matt makes a lot of sense. We don't have much of that in Washington.
That's by the design of their puppet masters with the purse strings. Doesn't matter who you put into Washington until those lines are cut and we leave those people with the purse strings out in the cold. We need FDR energy and monopoly busting. Austerity for the rich and we could be out of this in like 36 months. It's actually a really small problem. Convincing people of that is the hard part. It was done before, it can be done again. But what did it take last time? The depression...
this guy is on point
Adam, your program is the BEST ! Thank you
Thank you!
Brilliant. Fearless. Necessary.
Really enjoyed the interview with Matt Piepenburg. Thanks!
Matt is so on point, sobering discussion which a number of economic commentators have been repeating
Matt is always awesome!
A marathon of truth.
Thank you very much...
Matt is always entertaining and knowledgeable.
A great talk, and I hope he will be back in your rotation.
Excellent Objective Perspectives
Adam you are my favorite TH-cam channel both for your wisdom, and the quality of your guests. I wish more people would step out of this fallacious financial system and prepare themselves for the inevitably painful future
Wow, appreciate this guest, his insights and candidness! Mr. Pipenburg is very well spoken and really appreciated what he had to share! I know little about monetary policy, but have learned a lot by watching your show, as this debt crisis is affecting all of us in one way or another. Thank you for having this guest!
I'm going to have to watch this a few times - so many gold nuggets from Mr. Piepenburg. I've used the phrase "the Emperor has no clothces" many times regarding the lies about inflation that we keep hearing from our leaders, so I laughed out loud when I heard it...
Matt Piepenburg was the one who told us in Oct 2021 The Fed would be cutting interest rates
just before Christmas.
Well, was he correct or not ?
@@linmal2242 At its December 2021 meeting, the Fed's policy-making committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), signaled that most of its members expected to raise interest rates in three one-quarter percentage point moves in 2022. 4.25% in raises in 2022. So no, he wasn't even in the ball park.
@@linmal2242 uh, not.
Matthew Piepenburg is simply outstanding!
Matt Piepenburg, John Rubino, James Lavish, Jack Gamble
Fun fact (if the fact presented here is correct) - Assume in 1929 despite the Great Depression, an average person managed to earn $1,300 yearly, and have an annual saving rate of 0.4 or $520, it would take the person about 9.6 years to save money to buy 250 $20 face-value gold coins.
There's an investor dichotomy being presented here between wealth preservation and wealth creation or Old World vs. New World. Matt works at wealth preservation and gold is a haven and hedge against currency depreciation. Most Asians and Europeans and So. Americans have experienced historical currency debasement many times and thus are focused on preservation. But most investors in the US are trying to grow their wealth as well as preserve it and gold is really not a good option for them until there's some kind of collapse. It's a hedge, not an investment. As Warren Buffett explains, do you want to own all the productive assets in the US or a big hunk of metal? Matt is serving his clients well by preserving their purchasing power but the better comparison for the purchasing power of the US$ is not a house, but relative to a share of AAPL or MSFTor NVDA stock. This does not preclude an asset price crash or further debasement of currencies, but one still wants productive assets to grow one's wealth. Select US land, housing, or equities are even better than gold.
Right but those are the popular assets anyway
and the American investor is so entitled and apathetic, believing that due to global reserve currency and the 40 years of affluence they’ve just enjoyed, that the hedge instruments (gold/silver) are half of one percent of portfolios. I don’t think he argues for not owning cash generating appreciating assets besides just gold …
…but these guys’ voices are necessary out there bc American education went completely dark on the subject of gold in 1974. 50 years now of nobody being educated on the topic.
Right but those are the popular assets anyway
and the American investor is so entitled and apathetic, believing that due to global reserve currency and the 40 years of affluence they’ve just enjoyed, that the hedge instruments (gold/silver) are half of one percent of portfolios. I don’t think he argues for not owning cash generating appreciating assets besides just gold …
…but these guys’ voices are necessary out there bc American education went completely dark on the subject of gold in 1974. 50 years now of nobody being educated on the topic.
@@robynopenshaw5268 Yes, but my point is that they are popular for a reason. It may be 'exuberance' to overpay for US housing stock, but it's not irrational if you don't trust the currency to buy real assets denominated in that currency. The entire global economy is in the same boat as the US - they are all subject to fiat currency mismanagement, but US$ assets are relatively valuable for so many reasons: democracy, political stability, military security, legal institutions, written constitution, natural resources, natural defenses, etc. Many societies have few or none of these advantages, which is why people with wealth to preserve still buy US bonds, US land, and US equities. Gold is nice, but it gets buried in the backyard. Monetary education certainly is necessary, but gold is only part of that. Most people don't understand what money represents and thus are vulnerable to money illusion. The Fed and UST are engineering money illusion to mitigate their debt problem.
Now you're talking!
Some great analogies about the legacy of a grand father and a bus driver just to make sure you end up in the right place. Great interview Adam!
Thanks for saying what seems to me obvious. Moving our manufacturing base over seas seemed like a ridiculous idea as well. Thanks
Thank you, Matt & Adam!
Love to see a Stanford grad with MW roots being so worldly! 🙂
Kennedy Junior has told us the truth over and over again. Are Americans listening? Kennedy Shannihan has my vote in Florida. I encourage all Americans to join us and together we can build a new America.
Kennedy Shannihan 2024
Spread the word 😊❤
Adam - absolutely outstanding interview! The wrap up work the gentlemen from New Harbor Financial is extremely enlightening! Thank you!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Some extremely salient points and, while admittedly talking his book, an outstanding discussion on credit devaluation risks. His firm is clearly dealing with those upper echelon types that really don’t face the issues of the common man.
I remember a little time ago, 20+ years when everyone was worried about how much of our treasuries were owned by foreign governments. 😮
Adam, you are providing a great to us all. I have heard Matt several times and think he has a solid grasp of financial markets. I previously managed a small family office and now direct a PE debt fund. I began my career in 1971 and have seen the evolution of financing, interest rates, financial markets. Matt understands as few do these days. Thank you for your service.
only thing you could say is if you took that $5000 in 1920 and invested it in the dow at that time apx value of (72) you would
have a shit load more money (apx $2.8 million) than if you kept it in gold coins.. . a shitload.. now im a gold bull but lets be honest here...
I haven't check your numbers even though markets crashed several times by 50% and went 25 year stretches without reaching previous highs... but assuming $2.8 is right... what you have forgotten is inflation. You have lots of $$ but everything costs more $$. Gold isn't for investing. Gold holds value...
Matt always provide great analysis and insight into what is happening below the surface and what is the implications on asset markets. I love his session. Now as it is becoming increasingly clear, gold will be a the most important asset to hand in anyone's portfolio, it would be nice to have a session on gold and other precious metals - specially on how retail investors approach these hard assets to add to their portfolio. thanks
Excellent interview and great guest. Looking forward to seeing him back on soon.
I’ve heard this guy before but he was on fire on this podcast !! Very good interview!
Peipenberg a very impressive analyst
He's right!
I've got to agree with everything Matt said, I think his analysis is pretty good
Fantastic guest
Good to hear from Mike and John too
Thanks all
Thanks for another great interview with Matt. A compelling view of our collective financial situation with global and historical perspectives.
We own our home plus a residential lot, 2 Toyotas paid off, no credit card debts, being paid off monthly. I guess we should start buying silver and more land.
Thank you, Adam and Matt. I’ve long been interested in metals. In my early 20’s I began playing with buying silver. Bought my first gold at $1K/ounce. Picked up several ounces at $2K/ounce. It makes sense, between the on shoring trend and likelihood of politicians choosing inflation as the least unpleasant option to solve the US National debt problem.
Okay, but Apple's shares have gained 142,537% since their IPO in 1980. Even Warren Buffett capitulated to that reality. Gold is a good diversification hedge, as is real estate, but neither will ever match productive capital as an investment.
He keeps talking about how the East sees things differently than we do. He's talking about a tiny number of immensely wealthy people in the East who only need to preserve their wealth.
Something I never hear is how to sell hold during an emergency or catastrophic time.
With difficulty. Be prepared. Better start finding out now, who will buy your gold. Speak with firm you bought it from first.
Maybe your best interview ever
Powell is inflating and monetizing the debt away because it can’t be repaid Janet Yellen is issuing short term bonds and fiscal spending by Congress and JB has gone haywire.. big trouble in big US
such a silly comment. Inflating the debt away has ALWAYS been the core strategy and it it has ALWAYS worked really really well
CBDC will be introduced as the savor 😢
Do u tink Joe will Freeze?
He's doing no such thing, Fed policy remains relatively tight. There is no monetary inflation right now. Both M1 and M2 have dropped in the last 2 years.
@@bradw2k check the other hand
The only reason the debt is a problem is that it's the wealth of the ruling oligarchy.
Thanks Mike and John for selling your Brazil (EWZ) shares last week. I was an eager buyer and I'm buying more discounted shares today. 😁
Matt actually understands the China situation, and the terrible self destruction that we are currently heading for.
Their rivers will dry as well as burst their banks before ours. And if push comes to shove, most of the world's economies will turn their back on Chinese goods. Trading out American hegemony for Chinese is a bad call this decade, or for the next few for that matter.
Great Analysis! Thanks. I am 90% in Long Term Treasuries paying 4.5%-5% waiting for the eventual drop. Reliving the 2001 and 2008 crashes.
I wish he'd come up for air.
US following Argentina down same path. 😢😢😢 Must protect the 1% at all costs. 😢😢
Government bonds have good yields at the moment because they have halved in price in the last 3 years. The negative correlation between equity and bond prices could hold. For example if we have a recession, equity prices could crash, while bond prices go up, driven by lower inflation and lower interest rates that a recession would give us. How does gold give me a retirement income? Can we have a recession and high inflation at the same time?
Brother, when you're right you're right. They said, gold will probably be $15k in 10 years.
Thanks!
GOLD! Always believe in yourself, you're indestructible.....
Gold to $15k by 2032-36.
@@subcitizen2012 that's a bit steep, I'd say 6k by 2035.
Maybe this guy should run!
At least 20 other states are also working on a similar plan and are coordinating with Texas on this currency.
Love gold! But what is the option when considering us history banning gold ownership?
2nd amendment.
I thought the green monster wall was going away?
Wow, great listen Adam. Wish I had a shoebox of coins, better get started.
Fear and scarcity feed on deceit and hypocrisy, turn people into game, vs love and abundance yields more love and more abundance for everyone. It means the sweat of your labor is golden not an icecube.
'Clearly shows... .' I think Matt is forgetting that most of the debt is the savings of Americans.
Not one word about that important fact.
Thats a good point I’d forgotten about! Thanks
The so called FDIC is insolent too.
Which is disproportionately and overwhelmingly who?
Bring it on! Je suis pret.
Matt really knows his shit.
Why doesn’t someone look back 4 years at what cpi measures and take 100 different factors and compare prices from then until now including compounding factors and determine if cpi was really between 3-9% or if it has really been much higher? It seems we can determine without a shadow of a doubt with just taking prices from then and now and doing some quick math so that we can say for sure with confidence they have been lying significantly??
Matthew made an example if you put $5000 worth of gold in a box in 1920, it would be worth $500,000 today. If you would have deposited that $5000 into the bank at 6% in 1920, you would have 1,700,000 in 100 years. So, it outperformed gold almost 4 to 1. It diminishes his point.
Gold is only doomsday insurance. I only use it as part of my portfolio.
The key is to be invested in markets. But carefully.
Waving goodbye to the Beveridge Report "Welfare State". Govts might be smarter to say "Be happy with 2-5% yields on funds". Whereas everyone has been used to 10-25% returns last 20 years. That was all the last gasps of the 1950s era. Better off investing in family with homes so they don't starve as jobs get shed shortly.
Many words...
People are just lemmings. They follow mindlessly, and they fantasize rather then deal with reality. How many thousands of people have gone into a casino with the thought that they just knew that a seven would come up next on the roll of the dice. They end up broke and wander outside of the casino with big dark rings around their eyes because they have lost everything. Another example: We have a captain and crew who are anything but responsible, and doing anything but minding the ship. The ship hits an iceberg and is sinking. The captain announces to the people that they should not worry, as the ship will keep them safe as they sink to the bottom of the ocean. Believe it or not, there is a large portion of the passengers that would follow and believe the captain and ride the ship to the bottom! It's just the way a percentage of our population lives and goes through life.
I want this guy for president.
Great guest today
Don't depend on the government
That's what they want you to think.
My mom can't stop watching this guy😂
I think Matt has it right and we have ourselves to blame.
Adam I love your channel but please consider snazzing up the backdrop, it’s kind of drab
New backdrop coming in 1 week!
@@adam.taggart something gothic GOT/Hobbit
Oh dear.. this will fire up so many bears
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊