I am looking forward to people seeing the craziness of this event TBH. I think it will be too high loot for my taste but that a lot of people will have FOMO over it
@@sirgog Which is why I'm probably switching over from ssf to ssfhc for this event to keep the challenge afloat. Lantern+kingsmarch is just currency overload.
If you have less than 8.5m dust, here’s a formula that may help you: (17,000,000 - Amount of dust)/27 = how much wheat and corn (each) you need Example: (17,000,000 - 8,500,000 dust)/27 = 315,000 That means you need 315k wheat and corn if you have 8,500,000 dust. (As he says in the video) You need 630k wheat and corn (each) if you have 0 dust. Note: this equation only works if A) dust value does not exceed wheat+corn value (not amount, but value) B) You use corn and wheat. The equation would be different for different crop combinations. If you want different crop combinations, take the value of 1 of each crop, add them, and that’s the number you divide by. For example, 1 wheat is 12, 1 corn is 15; 12+15=27.
@@handsomejohnjohn For maximum dust value, it is recommended to upgrade the disenchanter Rog to Rank 11 and disenchant rare high-ilv uniques. The dust value you get can be increased with quality on the items (useful if you have a high dust-value item, 20% qual is 20% more dust). I specifically adjusted my filter to show ALL unique 1-2 slot items (jewellry + belts), as well as any unique that will give me at least ~3.5-4k dust per inventory slot it takes (wand's have to at least give 10k dust for 3 slots, helmets/gloves/boots/small shields have to give at least ~14k+ for their 4 slots, 6 slot items for me only show if they give at least 19k+ dust and 8 slots usually show only at 24k+ dust.
What's I like in your news videos is that you give fact, you don't send us information that comes out of nowhere. There was a lot of testing and math behind it. It's in these moments that I find the POE community shines, everyone gives their two cents to help everyone. Ty for the video. P.S. : Maybe I'm asking too much, but I think a drawing or diagram of the optimal plots layout would be helpful.
@@sirgog there is something wrong with your data between me and my group we have sent out 20shipments using this Strat and received 1 shard so far none of have ever done a 50mil and not got at least 1
This strat is the opposite of Ziggyd's video, the shipment value is in an awkward range making the sacred orb have a chance to appear but not enough to reliably convert into mirror shards.
Metals to me are primarily an SSF progression thing. Ship items I believe also has the Faustus "Well-rolled" algorithm applied to them, so it could be useful for fishing specific gear bases you need that has good stats that can actually represent an upgrade as you progress. At the later portion of the endgame, you can probably use some of the output for recombinator fodder in addition to the items you roll yourself.
You guys are doing such good deeds. Thank you! I really wonder what kinda math cracks have to be working for GGG to put all this together in the first place.
@@cckmanofsteel2393 Respectfully, not everyone lives in the United States lol. Maths is the preferred term in the UK, Australia, and pretty much everywhere else that isn't the US or Canada. Thanks for your comment!!
As a student planning on working on my masters in analytics this upcoming year, this type of stuff really gets me going Seeing application of things I love in a game I love is fantastic
There was only one reason I found to send bars. It was to get well rolled rares. Not even good stat combinations but high tier and well rolled. These sold for a good chunk of dust before uniques.
6:42 Love how your sweaters/hoodies always disappear and you are suddenly in a T-Shirt! lol makes me laugh everytime! Good information though brother! Keep it up! 😎
These results are very surprising. For the first month of the league I was actually sending shipments from 5M to 20M. Tens and tens of them, so many, before we had the science info. And all that time I got ZERO mirror shards, not a single one, 0. Then I made a switch and started sending only 50M shipments few times per week. And since then I have had no shipment with 0 mirror shards again. There has always been at least one. I know this is just RNG of a data set of one person, but for me 50M has been the way to get consistent mirror shards, and anything less has failed.
Mate can you confirm proportions you use for shipment? I mean 25Mil dust and 25Mil plants value? Or 10/40? Also you charge all 5 plants or just some of them?
@@Kvodan before this vid came out I did all crops with 2 bzanth plots and did 25 mil dust 25 mil crops to the port that gave me the highest shipment value bonus through crop port quotas and I never got less than 1 mirror shard and went up to I believe 4 shards one time. I wouldn't be worried about the ratio of dust to crops because I haven't seen any evidence whatsoever that pure crops are more value than just matching in dust so if you fall behind on dust you can just wait for the crops to match it up to 50 mil total
Ive just watched this video and i dont think sirgog is saying that the 17mil ships are equal to a 50mil ship. So you wouldnt expect to be getting the same amount of mirror shards on average comparing a 17mil and 50mil shipment. It is expected that sending the 17mil ships over and over will earn you more than if you were doing the 50mil ships.
Amazingly helpful for me as an SSF player to help me target what I really want/need instead of just sending big random crop shipments willy nilly. Thanks!
Really appreciate all the SSF love as well! There is a lot less content focused on SSF, so thanks for including specific directions and optimizations for us :)
"Seems like the R value scales linearly with the logarithm of the amount of crops...." My math teacher warned me this day would come ( *hears a distant* mwahahahaha)
@sirgog I’m skeptical about these results. Is this raw shipment data available to analyze myself? Not to sound ungrateful of all the great work that’s gone into this. I just like doing the math myself, and I’m interested in determining how many of the “I didn’t get crap” reports are simply within statistical expectations. Thanks!
Wow, considering its all correct (didnt check), its impressive it took this long to figure this out (or the info to see the light), and it turns out that it isnt just what we thought. Mentioning this because, in science, proving stuff takes time and the result is generally what we though from the start. This speaks loudly about the poe game mechanics.
Sweet! Thank you, sirgog and everyone who worked on this project! I was going to quit the league since I've reached all of my league goals, but this interesting information makes me want to continue playing :D 17m shipments are wayyy easier to pack together than 50m shipments!
Someone gotting impressive results? Amazing math and video, but all I see in reedit or in coments here, are poor results... i dont want to lost my crops, pls send me links or prints with results.
Where did the "10.000 Blue Zanthimum to Kalgur" number come from? From reading the graph at 11:24 shouldn't the number of crops sent be 100.000? Or 50.000 with matching dust?
I did give 3x try of 17million but I ain't got mirror shard,..with 50mil it almost feel like guaranted 2 or more mirror shard (the luckiest I got is 6 mirror shard on 50mil shipment) , I mean idk 3x 17mil is a small sample size I would like to hear from other people who try this strat
The variance sucks. I would like to hear from more as well. The only shipment I’ve had the patience for was 23m of whatever 5 crops and dust I had (to ribenfell). Got 3 shards from that.
i sent to riben fell, 0 shards, no power runes, 4 div, 2 sacred 1 exalt... 315k wheat 315k corn 8505000 dust this feels like a bait strat to get players to waste their time, by far worse then sending a normal 50m boat, atleast based on the first one
@@pyklwheostanzan6901 I sent exact same shipment, I was at 47 mil and thought I was lucky when I found this video, now i will wait for others to post their results. Maybe he just jebaited us though.
Looking at this, I am happy that my very early and with extremelly very little amount of data models I was doing at 2-3 weeks into the league wasnt extremelly wrong, but just somewhat wrong. Overall the conclusion was kinda the same, when talking about overall value you got back in currency was better when sending mid to low amount of crops to closer ports. I had no way to model specifics on how it worked or specifics on how each crop biased the results when using a sample size of 60 shipments AND that were made only by me. Yes, I was way off, but considering the difference in time and resources put into the modelling, seeing that I wasnt cempletely wrong makes me happy
let's take a moment to thank these guys for having enough time on there hands and enough brains to figure this stuff out cuz got knows I wasn't going to do it lol. my brain hurts just from listening.
Awesome breakdown and just in time for new league. Not sure if this is on your list of things to do already but I'd love to see a build meta breakdown and suggestions of builds to play in reset that we expect to get nerfed or won't exist (e.g. runes) in 3.26
Many poeple on discord did try this 17mil strat and got 0 shards and in best scenario few divines. What crap is this? Did you ever ran thise shipments before publishing video?
@@danielcatch2644 in league relaunch divines would be worst outcome of mirror shards and power runes - these will be sought after. Also if divine is on lantern then divines are not even that needed.
So I need help! If i go say 400k 400k wheat corn. And I want to figure out how much dust to get to 1.26 mil items, how do I do that? The value at 400/400 is 10.8 mil.
@@Love-kq7iy if the mean return of 50 mil ships is 2 mirror shards (it is very very close to that amount) then a properly sent 17m ship (315k corn 315k wheat 8.05m dust) would average about 2 mirror shards every 3 ships. Some people and groups would be much unluckier then that, the same as people who have gone 4 or even 5 50m crop only ships in a row with 0 mirror shards.
first 17m shipment to pondium and I get 7 time runes and 3 power runes. Already a believer and hopefully I can get some runecrafted bases for future SSF builds in standard now
Ty so much for this info dump! One question though: Why do we balance corn and wheat? Wouldn't 70% wheat and 30% corn or so be better to get 800 items faster while avoiding the 500 cap for monocrop? (Or would it be enough to send 99% wheat and 1% corn?)
just assuming here, when they test with a single resource it is capped to 500 currency items instead of 800. I'm assume adding in 1 single other item doesn't unlock that to go to 800, but you need a balance to unlock the full 800. Like a 70/30 split might only give you 700 items.
can i simply substitute more crops and less dust and it be the same? I only have 10m dust was wanting to make 3 separate 17m shipments. have abundant crops
Interesting info. I have a couple questions. Slightly better? How many Mirror Shards / Power Runes / Divines 17m ships return on average? Quantity of currency doesn't matter - only high tier currency matters. I hope it wasn't used for any conclusions. How did you come to conclusion that "rarity upgrade" system works like that and sending 50m shipment doesn't move the needle enough? How many 17m shipments you guys sent? We have massive sample size for 50m ones.
A few example returns would be greatly appreciated. I can find many 50m shipment showcases but for 17m wheat-corn not s much... what to expect? at least on average.
@@sirgog thanks a lot. 0.55 on average kinda sounds bad though. 50m ships brought around 2.5 on average 5 times the return for three times the cost. Ofc failing one of those hurts a LOT.
do you have a link to all the data used and methodology? it's not that I don't trust the people who did it...i would just feel more confident with the conclusions if I could see all the numbers.
Thanks for the video, I'm not sure I understand the last point regarding ssf. You say "by doing the same thing" so wheat and corn ? But you also say ship to kalguur and I don't understand the reason there as the bias is toward bzanth?
Has there ever been an instance where you got more than 2 shards with capped 17m shipments? If not, then shipment value is quite important, given that there are 50m shipments with 5-6 shards.
Is there a point of doing shipment quests or just ignore them? (the ones that req. to send specific amount of materials). Because I always try to finish them but sometimes they req. a lot of metals to do.
I guess if you can fill the quota to refresh the quotas for that port to get more crop value it's worth it if you're not using the metals for anything else. What I would do is see which port gives better crop quotas and send it there (from the pool of best ports outlined in the video) and then send a metal only ship to clear out any remaining useless metal quotas to refresh it and get a bit of extra value on your next shipment if possible.
You never discuss how many mirror shards/divines you get on average from the 17 million sized shipments themselves. Should we expect 1-2 shards each time? Or are shards not likely in every shipment?
@@joeanon8568 no, they don't and they consider way lower number of shards for 50m shipments - 2 instead of 2.6 it was according to reports. Sirgog mentions 0.55 mirrors per 17m shipment and other guy mentioned range between 0.5 and 0.8. Also they fail to mention tht sending 3 17m shipments actually takes significantly longer than sending one 50m shipment.
Thx for research delivery mate! Tell me pls, did i understand correctly that the most likely way to get mirror shards is to send ships worth 17M, where 8.5M is dust, and the remaining 9.5M is plants in proportions 3:2:1 (Corn/Wheat/Zanth), so in this case chance to get shards is only 5% less compared to single-big-ship but chances trippled overall because of three 17M ships instead of one 50M. Does Pumpkin/Orground loads have less chances to bring mirror shards then C/W/Z combo?
Its 315k corn, 315k wheat and 8505000 dust for 17,1 Million shipment value But, ppl are gotting bad results from this strat... For myself, i Will keep sending 50kk boats for while.
where is the graph for power runes? I feel like for runes 50m is still better than 3x17. Because you usually get 0 on 17m. And power runes is mostly what ssf players need. Mirror shards too, but that applies to much less audience of 24x7 players. Because divines you can get from many sources, not only boats, but power runes are only coming from ships so optimizing for divines in ssf seems like someone never played ssf :)
Really need to publish the data and analysis. The methodology seems sus and doesn't match up with GGG's published intentions. Just looking at the graphs in the video, it seems the testing was very limited to conclude that crop quantity matters rather than shipment value. Unless there are other analyses beyond the graphs shown, it seems like the conclusion was drawn with limited basis and then fit testing was done afterwards using a simplified scenario where crop quantity and shipment value are direct proxies for each other. For example, if I run a regression where my key variable is number of families and get a very tight fit, I might conclude that families is the right driver and prioritize 'family values' policies. This is the wrong conclusion if population was the real driver, even though population and families are good proxies for each other. By your video's conclusion that crop quantity is key, Bzanth is half as valuable as Wheat in a shipment. Bzanth has 24 shipment value vs. 12 for wheat, so it provides half as much crop quantity per same shipment value. This same logic applies to Orgourd and Pumpkin, so a pentacrop shipment should have 20-30% less crop quantity than the duocrop shipment depending on the crop mix. 20-30% difference in crop quantity should be driving a significant improvement if that is the key to the rarity function, since it effectively transforms a 50m pentacrop shipment to a "60m+ shipment" by trading 2 wheat for 1 bzanth, or trading 8 corn for 5 bzanth, etc., thereby driving up the crop quantity massively. However, your video only shows a graph on expected mirror shards for the pentacrop method but not for the duocrop method, and you even say that you believe Wheat/Corn is only marginally better. The logic contradicts itself. Either crop quantity matters and this method should drive 20% improvement in the rarity function OR shipment value matters and this method is bait because it foregoes the 5-crop farming bonus and wastes a lot of valuable bzanth on divines instead of including them in the higher value shipments for mirror shards. I think the only claim that is rigorously supported by the data shown is that you get materially worse results by shipping anything less than necessary to hit the 800 item quantity cap. That is valuable insight though, so appreciate making that part public. As for the rest, the data really needs to be published and reviewed by the community. If that isn't possible, please consider making a retraction video or some acknowledgment that this needs further review.
can confirm this is a complete scam, tested with a group of 5 friends, none of us got any mirror shards, the luckiest got 8 div, dont believe everything on the internet guys
majority of the results state that this method is trash, people be sending 6-7 17 mil shipments with no mirror shards, while majority of 50 mil shipments give mirror shards
IDk if i missed it in the Video but do the rewards from 17 Mio Shipment are better if my Shipment Team is full Rank 10 ? or does it only matter for Risk Level ?
I have two questions. 1. How would the reward formula change if, instead of shipping an equal amount of wheat and corn, I send them in a ratio proportional to their growth? 2. If I'm optimizing for divines with BZ shipments to Kalguur (SSF player; don't care about shards), how should I balance the crop load for those shipments? Should I go for a) lower-value monocrop zanth shipments (what size?), b) equal ratio zanth + one other crop, c) half zanth + half mixture of other crops, or d) some other ratio?
on 1 - seems you fall a little under 800 from rounding errors. Nothing has been proven better than 5050. On 2 - 10k blue zanth, 0 everything else. This can be 10k raw zanth, or 5k zanth and dust to match,
@@sirgog Sirgog, and (for SSF for divines) how would the shipments be for the 50/50 wheat/corn ships to Ngakanu or Riben Fell. Briefly mentioned 13mill total shipment value on the first SSF segment of the video, but mentioned 17mill shipment on the final segment.
welp, there went 95M of value in 17M shipments down the drain. 0 shards, and a bunch of zanth sent to kalguur in the mean time, i got 1 div every 4 shipments or so. great video, i suggest everyone to follow it too
the expected amount is 1 divine orb per 4 ships of 10k bzanthimum to kalguur. It's the best thing to do with your bzanthimum, but i don't consider it worth your time as a player
I need the "set up your farm like this, this and that, and send this crop and this much dust to this place for max mirror shards" , where do i find that, sry, i dont have half an hour to listen to excel spreadsheet yap, even though i appreciate it.
it is preferable to do it without. But if i remember the numbers correctly it's on average 1 raw divine per like 4 ships. It's pretty cringe to do imo i don't do it myself. it IS the best thing to do with your bzanthimum as far as div/bzanthimum farmed, it's just cringe.
Wow… so my inadvertent method of laziness was actually almost optimal? That is: saving up for 50m, feeling like it would take way too long, saying “screw it” and sending at like 23m instead. All I was missing was the optimal 2 crops instead of 5. All great info. I love data analysis and statistics. I’m solid on the math, but I’m usually too lazy to collect the data.
I'm playing on ssf. I want to get a lot of divine orbs, I understand sending 10k blue to Kalgurr, but does this include dust? If not, how much dust should I include. Also, what's the best farm layout for growing blue? I don't know if it's advantageous to grow 6 blue or place others around. For divine orbs, I only need blue, so is it correct to grow only blue? Thank you for the detailed video, but I can't understand it perfectly because I'm not good at English. I love your videos, but it would be helpful to foreigners if there were more image things. I'm sorry if this was a rude request.
Was gonna start trying this after watching the video? But 99% of the comments are saying they’ve sent 5-6 17 mil shipments and got absoloutly nothing. So not sure.
I've personally not found this to work at all. The best shipment out of 6 so far was 4 divines. 0 Power Runes, 0 Mirror Shards out of the 6. I may be very unlucky, but I'm going back to 50mil shipments. Just some feedback.
@@sirgog I've had that happen with 1x 50m shipment before as well, but at least it ended up having like 4 Power Runes and 8-9 Divs. The 17.1m shipments have not shown me any kind of love. A 4 Div run was literally the best thing I've gotten. The rest of them were 1-3 Div (last one was 1 Div, 0 Power runes, 0 Shards). I'm probably just stupidly unlucky, but yeh... Could've done 2 and a bit 50m runs with the tests I've done and hoped for the best. I respect the work and effort that went into this, regardless of my personal outcome.
right so either GGG's patch they just launched few hours ago shadow nerfed this strat or there still needs ALOT more testing because just like everyone in this comments section I too received 0 shards- 2 sacred -2 div from following your receipe exactly and sending to RF with a dbl crop request consisting of wheat and corn as a added bonus :/
unfortunately, the comment section of a youtube video will have the exact opposite reporting bias of early reddit ships. People will be more likely to post and brag about their good ships on reddit, and here will be more likely to complain about not getting anything good than leave a comment saying "wow, i got 1 mirror shard like i'm supposed to get sometimes". we know how the weights are scaled down as crops / value sent increases, and we have found the affinities for every other ship type. The ONLY possible avenue for error in this method is if there's something going on where mirror shards have an abnormal affinity-like effect going on where they substantially benefit from having a smaller amount of every crop as opposed to a larger amount of the two crops we have definitively proven are otherwise the best for every other currency hands down. There is no evidence of this existing from the various types of shipments i've seen and sent myself (including my own 17-20m ships) but it's not technically impossible per se. I find it much more likely that the people complaining that they got nothing are simply much much more likely to leave a comment about their results than someone who got exactly what they should expect (which is absolutely nothing special)
@@sirgog i am however, very curious, do you think this will influence your strategy for the Settlers rerun? i'm guessing you'll still Aim for Kingsmarch maxing and then maybe swap the farmers around. still remain to be seen if they do decide to rebalance some of the weightings for Kingsmarch items.
Tried it and got 0 shards. Looking at the math of 1.7 per 50 million shipment value it seems like 1 out of 3 shipments will have 0 and 2 out of 3 will have 1 shard.
I haven't had a single shipment of 50 mil not give at least 1 shard and often give me more than 1. Not sure how many I've done but it's been at least 15 so far.
Verisium for stacked decks is probably the cheapest divine farm. I send 5 at a time, get back 3-10 stacked decks. Comes out to a divine every hour or so, in what would have been idle ships.
this was also my strat when i was power rune farming. pulls in currency and then you also get to fight the pirate for low chance power runes. i also liked the 35m interval on it. synced up with the garbage i was shredding
the downside to this is stopping your mapping to deal with collecting the stacked decks and getting the ships back out there. I'm come to find the constant management of ships every 30m to be bothersome
*TL:DR;* 1:09 & 13:24 Level 83+ Character
*Mirror Shards:*
315k Wheat
315k Corn
8505k Dust
Riben Fell -> if market favors runes over tattoo (22:53)
Ngakanu - >if market favors tattoos over runes
*Divines:*
10K Blue Zanthimum to Kalguur
*Plots:*
2 Corn
2 Wheat
1 alternate corn/wheat
1 Blue Zanthimum
Just 8505 or 850500 dust
@@volume802 8505000, its 8 milion 5005 thousand
What about the bonus for having all 5 crops going
@@volume802 8.5 million
@@volume802 8505k or 8505 x 1000 so 8,505,000
Sirgog hard carrying POE's lack of news
I am looking forward to people seeing the craziness of this event TBH.
I think it will be too high loot for my taste but that a lot of people will have FOMO over it
I personally just want the lvl 50 chest 😄
@@sirgog Which is why I'm probably switching over from ssf to ssfhc for this event to keep the challenge afloat. Lantern+kingsmarch is just currency overload.
@@sirgog is that loot in the room with us?
Always has been
If you have less than 8.5m dust, here’s a formula that may help you:
(17,000,000 - Amount of dust)/27 = how much wheat and corn (each) you need
Example:
(17,000,000 - 8,500,000 dust)/27 = 315,000
That means you need 315k wheat and corn if you have 8,500,000 dust. (As he says in the video)
You need 630k wheat and corn (each) if you have 0 dust.
Note: this equation only works if
A) dust value does not exceed wheat+corn value (not amount, but value)
B) You use corn and wheat. The equation would be different for different crop combinations.
If you want different crop combinations, take the value of 1 of each crop, add them, and that’s the number you divide by. For example, 1 wheat is 12, 1 corn is 15; 12+15=27.
Been waiting for this one, thanks mr. sirgog!
do you how to convert items into dust? I have not seen any dust in the game.
@@handsomejohnjohn Disenchanting rares and eventually uniques at Rog's station in Kingsmarch gives Dust.
@@handsomejohnjohn For maximum dust value, it is recommended to upgrade the disenchanter Rog to Rank 11 and disenchant rare high-ilv uniques. The dust value you get can be increased with quality on the items (useful if you have a high dust-value item, 20% qual is 20% more dust). I specifically adjusted my filter to show ALL unique 1-2 slot items (jewellry + belts), as well as any unique that will give me at least ~3.5-4k dust per inventory slot it takes (wand's have to at least give 10k dust for 3 slots, helmets/gloves/boots/small shields have to give at least ~14k+ for their 4 slots, 6 slot items for me only show if they give at least 19k+ dust and 8 slots usually show only at 24k+ dust.
What's I like in your news videos is that you give fact, you don't send us information that comes out of nowhere. There was a lot of testing and math behind it. It's in these moments that I find the POE community shines, everyone gives their two cents to help everyone.
Ty for the video.
P.S. : Maybe I'm asking too much, but I think a drawing or diagram of the optimal plots layout would be helpful.
didnt think of that on the plot layout. oops. i should have MS painted it
@@sirgog still time!
@@sirgog there is something wrong with your data between me and my group we have sent out 20shipments using this Strat and received 1 shard so far none of have ever done a 50mil and not got at least 1
Has anyone here received a shard yet with 17.1M to Ngakanu? Already sent 5 shipments and got nothing.
Nope.
after 3 shipments i stopped this strat... i think its flawed
nope
Not a single shard
This strat is the opposite of Ziggyd's video, the shipment value is in an awkward range making the sacred orb have a chance to appear but not enough to reliably convert into mirror shards.
Still sane Exile ?
afther watching this video :D idk what i need kek
Metals to me are primarily an SSF progression thing. Ship items I believe also has the Faustus "Well-rolled" algorithm applied to them, so it could be useful for fishing specific gear bases you need that has good stats that can actually represent an upgrade as you progress. At the later portion of the endgame, you can probably use some of the output for recombinator fodder in addition to the items you roll yourself.
Yup. Metal is great in SSF for well rolled (sacred orb) armor bases and i86 armor bases.
You guys are doing such good deeds. Thank you!
I really wonder what kinda math cracks have to be working for GGG to put all this together in the first place.
Babe wake up!! Sir gog hit us with some new maths.
tbh it's Puddles et al that did the maths here; they'd worked almost everything out in a thread I fell months behind in
@@sirgog respectfully, math is singular. lol. thanks for your content!!
@@cckmanofsteel2393 Respectfully, not everyone lives in the United States lol. Maths is the preferred term in the UK, Australia, and pretty much everywhere else that isn't the US or Canada. Thanks for your comment!!
@@cckmanofsteel2393 (mathematics) --> math / maths. lol
@@Zw1ggy hey never thought of this but in spanish is plural too
was going to ship and scrolled to this vid.
LET THE MAN SPEAK!
As a student planning on working on my masters in analytics this upcoming year, this type of stuff really gets me going
Seeing application of things I love in a game I love is fantastic
There was only one reason I found to send bars. It was to get well rolled rares. Not even good stat combinations but high tier and well rolled. These sold for a good chunk of dust before uniques.
6:42 Love how your sweaters/hoodies always disappear and you are suddenly in a T-Shirt! lol makes me laugh everytime! Good information though brother! Keep it up! 😎
These results are very surprising. For the first month of the league I was actually sending shipments from 5M to 20M. Tens and tens of them, so many, before we had the science info. And all that time I got ZERO mirror shards, not a single one, 0. Then I made a switch and started sending only 50M shipments few times per week. And since then I have had no shipment with 0 mirror shards again. There has always been at least one. I know this is just RNG of a data set of one person, but for me 50M has been the way to get consistent mirror shards, and anything less has failed.
Mate can you confirm proportions you use for shipment? I mean 25Mil dust and 25Mil plants value? Or 10/40? Also you charge all 5 plants or just some of them?
@@Kvodan before this vid came out I did all crops with 2 bzanth plots and did 25 mil dust 25 mil crops to the port that gave me the highest shipment value bonus through crop port quotas and I never got less than 1 mirror shard and went up to I believe 4 shards one time.
I wouldn't be worried about the ratio of dust to crops because I haven't seen any evidence whatsoever that pure crops are more value than just matching in dust so if you fall behind on dust you can just wait for the crops to match it up to 50 mil total
@@javelinwounds quota bonuses might be good idea! Thx for detailed feedback bro, appreciate dat :)
Ive just watched this video and i dont think sirgog is saying that the 17mil ships are equal to a 50mil ship. So you wouldnt expect to be getting the same amount of mirror shards on average comparing a 17mil and 50mil shipment. It is expected that sending the 17mil ships over and over will earn you more than if you were doing the 50mil ships.
@@Kvodan
9 shipments
45m crops 5m dust
result=
12 mirror shards 27 sacred
3 shipments with zero shard
Amazingly helpful for me as an SSF player to help me target what I really want/need instead of just sending big random crop shipments willy nilly. Thanks!
Thank you for sharing the knowledge, good luck in the settlers event and i hope the it goes core in some kind of way!
Awesome video as always, but some of your slide backgrounds are very busy and it's hard to read the text over them. thx for the content!
Incredible effort and clearly explained as always!
Really appreciate all the SSF love as well! There is a lot less content focused on SSF, so thanks for including specific directions and optimizations for us :)
"Seems like the R value scales linearly with the logarithm of the amount of crops...." My math teacher warned me this day would come ( *hears a distant* mwahahahaha)
Love these super in depth videos, very interesting stuff
as ssf this is a godsent. i really hope they keep it close to this in the next season
yall are a blessing to the poe community
Why is it an equal amount of wheat and corn? Edit: Why not simply 629k wheat+1k corn?
@sirgog I’m skeptical about these results. Is this raw shipment data available to analyze myself?
Not to sound ungrateful of all the great work that’s gone into this. I just like doing the math myself, and I’m interested in determining how many of the “I didn’t get crap” reports are simply within statistical expectations.
Thanks!
OOOOo snap, thanks sirgog for still putting out content this far into the league
excellent info dump as always!
When sending blue to kalguur, is it worth it to substitute some of the 10k with dust?
Wow, considering its all correct (didnt check), its impressive it took this long to figure this out (or the info to see the light), and it turns out that it isnt just what we thought.
Mentioning this because, in science, proving stuff takes time and the result is generally what we though from the start.
This speaks loudly about the poe game mechanics.
Sweet! Thank you, sirgog and everyone who worked on this project! I was going to quit the league since I've reached all of my league goals, but this interesting information makes me want to continue playing :D 17m shipments are wayyy easier to pack together than 50m shipments!
if they bring same abount of mirr shards and just 30% less divines which is fine, im in too, but wanna confirmation that this is the case.
@@Kvodan yeah, im still waiting for more results about 17m shipment's...
Someone gotting impressive results? Amazing math and video, but all I see in reedit or in coments here, are poor results... i dont want to lost my crops, pls send me links or prints with results.
Where did the "10.000 Blue Zanthimum to Kalgur" number come from? From reading the graph at 11:24 shouldn't the number of crops sent be 100.000? Or 50.000 with matching dust?
I did give 3x try of 17million but I ain't got mirror shard,..with 50mil it almost feel like guaranted 2 or more mirror shard (the luckiest I got is 6 mirror shard on 50mil shipment) , I mean idk 3x 17mil is a small sample size I would like to hear from other people who try this strat
The variance sucks. I would like to hear from more as well. The only shipment I’ve had the patience for was 23m of whatever 5 crops and dust I had (to ribenfell). Got 3 shards from that.
Post results here, sending my first Ship using the Wheat/Corn.
I got 0 shards 6 div 1 suppress rune
i sent to riben fell, 0 shards, no power runes, 4 div, 2 sacred 1 exalt...
315k wheat
315k corn
8505000 dust
this feels like a bait strat to get players to waste their time, by far worse then sending a normal 50m boat, atleast based on the first one
@@pyklwheostanzan6901 I sent exact same shipment, I was at 47 mil and thought I was lucky when I found this video, now i will wait for others to post their results. Maybe he just jebaited us though.
everyone comenting 0 shards this sounds like extreme bait
0 shard as well (6 div 2 sacred)
Looking at this, I am happy that my very early and with extremelly very little amount of data models I was doing at 2-3 weeks into the league wasnt extremelly wrong, but just somewhat wrong. Overall the conclusion was kinda the same, when talking about overall value you got back in currency was better when sending mid to low amount of crops to closer ports.
I had no way to model specifics on how it worked or specifics on how each crop biased the results when using a sample size of 60 shipments AND that were made only by me.
Yes, I was way off, but considering the difference in time and resources put into the modelling, seeing that I wasnt cempletely wrong makes me happy
What an amazing strat, sent out 6*17mill shipments. got 3-5 div each, 0 mirror shards, 0 power runes. Thanks man!
Yea, git baited too, spent 5 div in uniques for dust, got 3 row divines 0 shrads, 0 power runes. Le classique scam
Any thought on how much BZanth send to Kalguur in 1 ship ? Or just throw all in 1 and jobs done ?
Just tried your 17mil shipment
It yielded me 1 whole divine... great strat...
How much dust do you sand with blue xanth for divine finishing? You said 10K blue, but I am uncertain about how much dust.
i think u always send dust = shipment value.
example: if 10k blue z = 97000 shipment value, so u need to send 97k dust.
Ty. I tried sending 10k without dust and usually got at least one divine.
@@TheTheologyProfessor dust start got diminushing returns when its pass the shipment value. Test urself and u Will see
Nice video! At the end you did good summary what to do to get shards. Unfortunately the summary for div orbs was like afterthought and less specific:(
let's take a moment to thank these guys for having enough time on there hands and enough brains to figure this stuff out cuz got knows I wasn't going to do it lol. my brain hurts just from listening.
well we tried the strat and it doesn't work as advertised... look at the comments, everyone actually trying it is stating bad results...
Hot damn. If this is true, then I may be able to send 2-3 ships instead of 1. Looks like the next boatmirror isn't all that far off!!
Awesome breakdown and just in time for new league.
Not sure if this is on your list of things to do already but I'd love to see a build meta breakdown and suggestions of builds to play in reset that we expect to get nerfed or won't exist (e.g. runes) in 3.26
Heh was writing this when you made the comment
Awesome! Love all your PoE analysis. Looking forward to it.
Many poeple on discord did try this 17mil strat and got 0 shards and in best scenario few divines. What crap is this? Did you ever ran thise shipments before publishing video?
I feel like all this is more about the league relaunch and farming divines
@@danielcatch2644 in league relaunch divines would be worst outcome of mirror shards and power runes - these will be sought after. Also if divine is on lantern then divines are not even that needed.
So I need help! If i go say 400k 400k wheat corn. And I want to figure out how much dust to get to 1.26 mil items, how do I do that? The value at 400/400 is 10.8 mil.
For SSF I would like to know the best shipment to send for power runes.. still haven't gotten one
Been sending BZ to Kalguur since this video at the recommended amounts. No Divines at all so far all day....Three days now and not a single divine.
Been seeing lots of folks reporting nothing at all returns and most in the discord group I'm part of have stopped sending 17m
@@Love-kq7iy if the mean return of 50 mil ships is 2 mirror shards (it is very very close to that amount) then a properly sent 17m ship (315k corn 315k wheat 8.05m dust) would average about 2 mirror shards every 3 ships. Some people and groups would be much unluckier then that, the same as people who have gone 4 or even 5 50m crop only ships in a row with 0 mirror shards.
@@IQof3.0 I’ve sent 16 boats and gotten a divine 13 times. 10k blue 240k dust
Awesome video ty! Do I still send dust with the 10k BZ to kalguur or just the crops?
Has anyone had any success with these 17 million value shipments? All I read is negative feedback for them.
So what is now the avg of Mirror shards u receive per 1.7m crop shipment?
first 17m shipment to pondium and I get 7 time runes and 3 power runes. Already a believer and hopefully I can get some runecrafted bases for future SSF builds in standard now
Possibly lucky there. Lots of people are not getting 3 per 17m.
Ty so much for this info dump! One question though: Why do we balance corn and wheat? Wouldn't 70% wheat and 30% corn or so be better to get 800 items faster while avoiding the 500 cap for monocrop? (Or would it be enough to send 99% wheat and 1% corn?)
and what to do with others plants :D like Pump and Orgr
Proably because that ratio is the only one tested and the only information that they can validly present
just assuming here, when they test with a single resource it is capped to 500 currency items instead of 800. I'm assume adding in 1 single other item doesn't unlock that to go to 800, but you need a balance to unlock the full 800. Like a 70/30 split might only give you 700 items.
can i simply substitute more crops and less dust and it be the same? I only have 10m dust was wanting to make 3 separate 17m shipments. have abundant crops
Interesting info. I have a couple questions.
Slightly better? How many Mirror Shards / Power Runes / Divines 17m ships return on average?
Quantity of currency doesn't matter - only high tier currency matters. I hope it wasn't used for any conclusions.
How did you come to conclusion that "rarity upgrade" system works like that and sending 50m shipment doesn't move the needle enough?
How many 17m shipments you guys sent? We have massive sample size for 50m ones.
same as 50kk if u need high tier
all i will say 2 shipment of 17m so far = no power no shard 8div 3 sacred 8timerune, i'd rather go for 50m i guess
@@FighTanK that's just 2 shipments. :|
@@FighTanK every I talk to similar results, this seems like extreme bait.
I only did one 17m shipment now but the loot was not good. 0 shards, 0 power runes, only 3 divines, 3 sacred orbs.
A few example returns would be greatly appreciated. I can find many 50m shipment showcases but for 17m wheat-corn not s much... what to expect? at least on average.
It's 0.55 mirror shards and about 4 divines average. Variance is huge though.
I sent one yesterday and got 0 mirror shards, 10 divines, 1 power rune
@@sirgog thanks a lot. 0.55 on average kinda sounds bad though. 50m ships brought around 2.5 on average 5 times the return for three times the cost. Ofc failing one of those hurts a LOT.
do you have a link to all the data used and methodology? it's not that I don't trust the people who did it...i would just feel more confident with the conclusions if I could see all the numbers.
Thanks for the video, I'm not sure I understand the last point regarding ssf. You say "by doing the same thing" so wheat and corn ? But you also say ship to kalguur and I don't understand the reason there as the bias is toward bzanth?
Has there ever been an instance where you got more than 2 shards with capped 17m shipments? If not, then shipment value is quite important, given that there are 50m shipments with 5-6 shards.
Me personally? I've only had 0 or 1. The dataset this vid was made from included one person who got 3
@@sirgog i sended 8 50kk shipments and got 23 shards (2 with 5 shards and 1 with 0 shards).
Is there a point of doing shipment quests or just ignore them? (the ones that req. to send specific amount of materials). Because I always try to finish them but sometimes they req. a lot of metals to do.
I guess if you can fill the quota to refresh the quotas for that port to get more crop value it's worth it if you're not using the metals for anything else. What I would do is see which port gives better crop quotas and send it there (from the pool of best ports outlined in the video) and then send a metal only ship to clear out any remaining useless metal quotas to refresh it and get a bit of extra value on your next shipment if possible.
You never discuss how many mirror shards/divines you get on average from the 17 million sized shipments themselves. Should we expect 1-2 shards each time? Or are shards not likely in every shipment?
@@Kure_Games about 38% the amount from 50m. There's a graph of shards per 50m
That's pretty close to 17m/50m. Do you really get meaningfully more shards/time with this method? @@sirgog
@@joeanon8568 no, they don't and they consider way lower number of shards for 50m shipments - 2 instead of 2.6 it was according to reports. Sirgog mentions 0.55 mirrors per 17m shipment and other guy mentioned range between 0.5 and 0.8.
Also they fail to mention tht sending 3 17m shipments actually takes significantly longer than sending one 50m shipment.
hello i have a question do we send these 100000 blue with pollen or alone ?
That t-shirt change had me baffled for a second.
Just to clarify about how dust works, a shipment for example with 2500 crop and 2500 dust should be the same as 4000 crop and 1000 dust?
Yeah, as long as dust doesn't exceed crops in shipment value. Beyond that there's diminishing returns on dust
dust does not affect rune or tattoo rewards
SirGOG cooking so hard , he had to take off his jacket @16:24 xD
Thx for research delivery mate! Tell me pls, did i understand correctly that the most likely way to get mirror shards is to send ships worth 17M, where 8.5M is dust, and the remaining 9.5M is plants in proportions 3:2:1 (Corn/Wheat/Zanth), so in this case chance to get shards is only 5% less compared to single-big-ship but chances trippled overall because of three 17M ships instead of one 50M. Does Pumpkin/Orground loads have less chances to bring mirror shards then C/W/Z combo?
No, rewatch the video.... Zanth is only for getting divines from Kalguur
@martingerbaldo im not en native speaker so some details still a bit complicated. So 9.5M value of C/W + 8.5M dust?
Its 315k corn, 315k wheat and 8505000 dust for 17,1 Million shipment value
But, ppl are gotting bad results from this strat... For myself, i Will keep sending 50kk boats for while.
is there any best way to keep the farm for wheat and corn only?
where is the graph for power runes? I feel like for runes 50m is still better than 3x17. Because you usually get 0 on 17m. And power runes is mostly what ssf players need. Mirror shards too, but that applies to much less audience of 24x7 players.
Because divines you can get from many sources, not only boats, but power runes are only coming from ships so optimizing for divines in ssf seems like someone never played ssf :)
Really need to publish the data and analysis. The methodology seems sus and doesn't match up with GGG's published intentions. Just looking at the graphs in the video, it seems the testing was very limited to conclude that crop quantity matters rather than shipment value. Unless there are other analyses beyond the graphs shown, it seems like the conclusion was drawn with limited basis and then fit testing was done afterwards using a simplified scenario where crop quantity and shipment value are direct proxies for each other. For example, if I run a regression where my key variable is number of families and get a very tight fit, I might conclude that families is the right driver and prioritize 'family values' policies. This is the wrong conclusion if population was the real driver, even though population and families are good proxies for each other.
By your video's conclusion that crop quantity is key, Bzanth is half as valuable as Wheat in a shipment. Bzanth has 24 shipment value vs. 12 for wheat, so it provides half as much crop quantity per same shipment value. This same logic applies to Orgourd and Pumpkin, so a pentacrop shipment should have 20-30% less crop quantity than the duocrop shipment depending on the crop mix. 20-30% difference in crop quantity should be driving a significant improvement if that is the key to the rarity function, since it effectively transforms a 50m pentacrop shipment to a "60m+ shipment" by trading 2 wheat for 1 bzanth, or trading 8 corn for 5 bzanth, etc., thereby driving up the crop quantity massively. However, your video only shows a graph on expected mirror shards for the pentacrop method but not for the duocrop method, and you even say that you believe Wheat/Corn is only marginally better. The logic contradicts itself. Either crop quantity matters and this method should drive 20% improvement in the rarity function OR shipment value matters and this method is bait because it foregoes the 5-crop farming bonus and wastes a lot of valuable bzanth on divines instead of including them in the higher value shipments for mirror shards.
I think the only claim that is rigorously supported by the data shown is that you get materially worse results by shipping anything less than necessary to hit the 800 item quantity cap. That is valuable insight though, so appreciate making that part public. As for the rest, the data really needs to be published and reviewed by the community. If that isn't possible, please consider making a retraction video or some acknowledgment that this needs further review.
this is a good point
Nice, really nice advise. Thanks a lot !!!!!!!
I love your t-shirts man
Zero shards 7 divine 1 power rune off 2 shipments so far, maybe I should have read the comments first. I think I'm going back to 50 mil boats.
Thanks for the information. I’m playing SSF currently. Do you know any information on the most efficient way to get power runes in your shipments?
Runes weren't cracked. Suspect it's keep increasing until you hit the rune cap (IIRC 200 runes) then stop increasing.
is having a bonus on wheat or corn beneficial when send 17mil shipments?
can confirm this is a complete scam, tested with a group of 5 friends, none of us got any mirror shards, the luckiest got 8 div, dont believe everything on the internet guys
i want to see the results
majority of the results state that this method is trash, people be sending 6-7 17 mil shipments with no mirror shards, while majority of 50 mil shipments give mirror shards
@@pseudipto no :)
IDk if i missed it in the Video but do the rewards from 17 Mio Shipment are better if my Shipment Team is full Rank 10 ? or does it only matter for Risk Level ?
I don't think there's been any data to suggest better shippers get you better rewards, they just help reduce risk as far as I understand it
I have two questions.
1. How would the reward formula change if, instead of shipping an equal amount of wheat and corn, I send them in a ratio proportional to their growth?
2. If I'm optimizing for divines with BZ shipments to Kalguur (SSF player; don't care about shards), how should I balance the crop load for those shipments? Should I go for a) lower-value monocrop zanth shipments (what size?), b) equal ratio zanth + one other crop, c) half zanth + half mixture of other crops, or d) some other ratio?
on 1 - seems you fall a little under 800 from rounding errors. Nothing has been proven better than 5050.
On 2 - 10k blue zanth, 0 everything else. This can be 10k raw zanth, or 5k zanth and dust to match,
@@sirgog Sirgog, and (for SSF for divines) how would the shipments be for the 50/50 wheat/corn ships to Ngakanu or Riben Fell. Briefly mentioned 13mill total shipment value on the first SSF segment of the video, but mentioned 17mill shipment on the final segment.
welp, there went 95M of value in 17M shipments down the drain. 0 shards, and a bunch of zanth sent to kalguur in the mean time, i got 1 div every 4 shipments or so. great video, i suggest everyone to follow it too
the expected amount is 1 divine orb per 4 ships of 10k bzanthimum to kalguur. It's the best thing to do with your bzanthimum, but i don't consider it worth your time as a player
I need the "set up your farm like this, this and that, and send this crop and this much dust to this place for max mirror shards" , where do i find that, sry, i dont have half an hour to listen to excel spreadsheet yap, even though i appreciate it.
POE is a game, which rewards you for putting in time for aquiring knowledge. You can listen, while you do something else.
Amazing video! I have many questions, what is the best field setup for maximum mirror shard? Full wheat and corn without bonus?
This remains an open question. I suspect maybe 3W 2C 1BZ (swapping to 2W3C1BZ as needed to balance) but not certain.
For the divines are we sending 10k BlueZ with or w/o the equivalent dust value? thanks in advance :)
it is preferable to do it without. But if i remember the numbers correctly it's on average 1 raw divine per like 4 ships. It's pretty cringe to do imo i don't do it myself. it IS the best thing to do with your bzanthimum as far as div/bzanthimum farmed, it's just cringe.
Wow… so my inadvertent method of laziness was actually almost optimal? That is: saving up for 50m, feeling like it would take way too long, saying “screw it” and sending at like 23m instead. All I was missing was the optimal 2 crops instead of 5.
All great info. I love data analysis and statistics. I’m solid on the math, but I’m usually too lazy to collect the data.
do you have a global channel where you share good zones/maps?
I miss "regret" in your sheet. Is there no affinity?
there is not.
Whilst u explain this extremely well. My eyes are as big as saucers so i guess ill continue doing shipments wrong haha
We finally got it...
Divergent Rarity
I'm playing on ssf. I want to get a lot of divine orbs, I understand sending 10k blue to Kalgurr, but does this include dust? If not, how much dust should I include.
Also, what's the best farm layout for growing blue? I don't know if it's advantageous to grow 6 blue or place others around. For divine orbs, I only need blue, so is it correct to grow only blue?
Thank you for the detailed video, but I can't understand it perfectly because I'm not good at English.
I love your videos, but it would be helpful to foreigners if there were more image things. I'm sorry if this was a rude request.
Why is stocking Bzanth relevant? Why not full tilt Wheat/Corn?
Was gonna start trying this after watching the video? But 99% of the comments are saying they’ve sent 5-6 17 mil shipments and got absoloutly nothing. So not sure.
if i wanted to send Bzanth to kaalgur should i wait until i hit 50 m for max divines or stick to the 17 m instead?
What values to hit 800 currency cap with non- wheat or corn? Still 630k each?
answer this plz
Thank you sir, helps a lot
I've personally not found this to work at all. The best shipment out of 6 so far was 4 divines. 0 Power Runes, 0 Mirror Shards out of the 6. I may be very unlucky, but I'm going back to 50mil shipments. Just some feedback.
Ouch. For what it's worth my last 50m gave 0
@@sirgog I've had that happen with 1x 50m shipment before as well, but at least it ended up having like 4 Power Runes and 8-9 Divs. The 17.1m shipments have not shown me any kind of love. A 4 Div run was literally the best thing I've gotten. The rest of them were 1-3 Div (last one was 1 Div, 0 Power runes, 0 Shards). I'm probably just stupidly unlucky, but yeh... Could've done 2 and a bit 50m runs with the tests I've done and hoped for the best.
I respect the work and effort that went into this, regardless of my personal outcome.
right so either GGG's patch they just launched few hours ago shadow nerfed this strat or there still needs ALOT more testing because just like everyone in this comments section I too received 0 shards- 2 sacred -2 div from following your receipe exactly and sending to RF with a dbl crop request consisting of wheat and corn as a added bonus :/
unfortunately, the comment section of a youtube video will have the exact opposite reporting bias of early reddit ships. People will be more likely to post and brag about their good ships on reddit, and here will be more likely to complain about not getting anything good than leave a comment saying "wow, i got 1 mirror shard like i'm supposed to get sometimes". we know how the weights are scaled down as crops / value sent increases, and we have found the affinities for every other ship type. The ONLY possible avenue for error in this method is if there's something going on where mirror shards have an abnormal affinity-like effect going on where they substantially benefit from having a smaller amount of every crop as opposed to a larger amount of the two crops we have definitively proven are otherwise the best for every other currency hands down. There is no evidence of this existing from the various types of shipments i've seen and sent myself (including my own 17-20m ships) but it's not technically impossible per se. I find it much more likely that the people complaining that they got nothing are simply much much more likely to leave a comment about their results than someone who got exactly what they should expect (which is absolutely nothing special)
just in time for 3.25.2
N a way i am glad the league is extended cos have been so busy with work & now with this strat, maybe I can get something interesting.
So good, thank you for the hard Work
I am just the messenger! Thanks to Puddles and crew for the maths
@@sirgog i am however, very curious, do you think this will influence your strategy for the Settlers rerun? i'm guessing you'll still Aim for Kingsmarch maxing and then maybe swap the farmers around.
still remain to be seen if they do decide to rebalance some of the weightings for Kingsmarch items.
Tried it and got 0 shards. Looking at the math of 1.7 per 50 million shipment value it seems like 1 out of 3 shipments will have 0 and 2 out of 3 will have 1 shard.
I haven't had a single shipment of 50 mil not give at least 1 shard and often give me more than 1. Not sure how many I've done but it's been at least 15 so far.
@@javelinwounds youve been getting lucky then. i had two 50 mil shipments this league give me 0 shards. and i only sent 5 or 6 total.
@@valjohnson7112 not really, its you who has been just really unlucky
@@javelinwounds you were very lucky then. I only send 50 mil for like 2 month and half of them weren't having shards.
Verisium for stacked decks is probably the cheapest divine farm. I send 5 at a time, get back 3-10 stacked decks. Comes out to a divine every hour or so, in what would have been idle ships.
this was also my strat when i was power rune farming. pulls in currency and then you also get to fight the pirate for low chance power runes. i also liked the 35m interval on it. synced up with the garbage i was shredding
the downside to this is stopping your mapping to deal with collecting the stacked decks and getting the ships back out there. I'm come to find the constant management of ships every 30m to be bothersome
Thats massive. Big thanks!