What bluffing strategies are working for you right now? Also, check out my other new video on advanced bluffing techniques with QJ offsuit: th-cam.com/video/hNT9im-_vdI/w-d-xo.html
Bluff strategy that is working great… leading into a paired board on the flop w/ 1/2 pot bet. With a tight image, this play seems to work OFTEN! Note: only betting this spot 1/3- 1/2 of the time
@@ryandaniel8856 With a loose image like mine it works pretty good. If I check raise from the small blind, players automatically assume that I got lucky and called preflop with a duce or some other low card
I am with one of the earlier replies. I have lots of trouble with these hands and seem to end up either folding or bluffing and then losing to an overpair or a set like in this video even if I hit anything.
Good video, thanks Nathan, although I feel like you made this sound more complicated than it needed to be. 1 - Suited connectors in position - 75% raise/25% flat - yes absolutely, depending on whether the player opening is a Lag, Tag, Nit, or Maniac. 2 - 3betting these types of hands in position is advantageous because you can rep a wider range of premium hands, which will in turn allow you to realize greater profits when these hands actually hit the board and your opponents continue to call you with AQs and AKs thinking that they are hero'ing. You are 23% to hit a pair, 5.5% to hit 2pair or better. More often than not you will hit a pair + draw flopping somewhere between 37-45% equity against overpairs. These spots are especially profitable in cash games against smaller effective stack sizes. 3 - Players out of position that hit the flop harder than you; i.e. that cap their range right away, will typically indicate this by overbetting on early streets, allowing you to fold out very easily in poor equity situations. Playing suited connectors in the HJ, CO, and BTN spots historically has been far more profitable for me in low-mid stakes cash games than playing premium hands.
I see a lot of regs calling 3bets with low and middle pairs OOP. I used to have the same leak but stopped calling anything less than 88 unless the sizing makes more sense to call. It has taught me to be analytical with my overpairs when facing aggression in 3bet pots on dry boards. Players make it very clear they hit bingo.
Always great videos, really appreciate seeing the action by action break down. That said, I feel like too often unless the video is "HOW TO BLUFF A REG" you frequently have videos where the player (or possibly, you) ends up with the nuts (or close to it). I feel like I OFTEN play hands as you've described, but the river is a blank or some trap card and now I'm knee deep in a wasted draw pot and trepidacious about just folding out, or checking and revealing my drawing hand. Could you possibly start creating some videos where players end up in sticky AF situations, against lesser-known opponents and even some advice on how to master the art of folding trap hands/coolers? Appreciate the content and the wisdom.
Some times you need to give away with your draws on the river and sometimes you need to bluff them. It depends of which villain hands you block. If you block his calling range and unblock his folding range you need to bluff. In this hand blocking his folding range (diamonds) is better to give up and dont bluff. If you dont have a diamond (Th9h for example) is a mandatory bluff.
Well 10d9d is a -EV even against one player with a non-fishy range. Even taking out QQ+ and AQ+...its still negative. If your playing lots of -EV situations "hoping" to hit your hand then your going to be losing alot of money. Very rarely do you flop anything you can continue with to a decent bet...and if you do end up opened ended on the flop...your rarely ever hitting the nuts by the river. In live lower stakes....your usually against 3 + players when you do flat...sometimes up to 5...and then even a 3 bet and you almost always have two callers +. Just my experience.
I have tried this strategy on a low stakes micro games. 5c 10c blinds. I don't think I can play suited connectors anymore because everytime I do not make my cards, at the river I try to make a bluff, per video suggestion when opponent checks. Almost exactly how this video is played out, 9 out of 10 times I was correct on predicting the range of hand they had. However 8 out of those 9 I predict when I bluff, they always calls.. people call with AK when hitting nothing, they will not lay down their pairs or hands. I've lost so much from bluffing, so I just stopped playing suited connectors period unless its QJ or KQ and higher...
@@FefeLeVrai i’m not saying they have bet the turn i’m saying check check, check check, check and then we bet. (if an A or K hits) i don’t understand that hypothetical situation which Nathan said he would bluff
Nathan said that at 8:50, just after calling the turn bet. He's talking about the hand the way it went down, not your alternate scenario where turn goes check check.
Love the video, the only problem I see is why would you ever turn the ten into a bluff on the river. In the small stakes games i play, people almost always call their overpairs here and I would just fold out their over cards. A river ten feels like a call or a check because their range is overcards that will most likely fold or over pairs that will most likely call. I could see a very small bet if you think you could get value from ace high after opponent checks.
QFT. The idea that a T makes a difference is nuts. Actually the idea that transform a T into a bluff and get snapped called makes the rest of the analysis very suspect
I really dislike the flop check. We have a range advantage and a small cbet stops us capping our range letting us bluff future streets. Running the line check-call-bluff looks really fishy and usually gets looked up by any value from villian, especially if you put him on the range that you're talking about.
This man speaks wisdom. check / call / bluff on a missed river throws away your fold equity, isn't folding any overpairs on the river. If he's a bad micro reg, protecting your range is ridiculous, he's not that sophisticated.
How do we have a range advantage? We are in position (button) which lets us potentially play more loose as well as doing a three bet. Betting/raising is basically always easier than calling. I assume someone calling a three bet OOP to have a better range than someone doing the three bet. Even though I agree with your statement. If someone has AA, KK, QQ he won't fold too often at a river bluff.
I've been reducing my c-bets on the flop and it is working. It's good for situations like this, and it's good to have some flexibility on the turn and river.
All valid points but the bluff story doesn't check out of your line is 3 bet, check, call, overbet river (assuming you bricked and the river continues to lend to being wet). An overpair at small to mid stakes almost certainly calls every time there, in my experience. Bluff stories almost always require at least 3 out of the 4 streets of aggression now (which is different from the past ABC type play/culture of poker in the 2000s).
Thanks for the analysis. At 50NL perhaps it is unusual for players to cold call a 3bet with pairs below TT from the BB, as they are more savvy to the hand strength required. However, at the lower stakes I play, I was expecting 77-99 to call, along with some more speculative hands. So I did come to the same conclusion on the flop to check back, but more out of concern for the BB's set advantage (I would never 3bet 77 and 88 BU vs HJ, but maybe you would at some frequency) than his overpairs.
Wait - I just watched a training of yours that listed 77 as one of your 5 must play hands…you mention 20% equity and favorable implied odds. In this one you don’t like the guys choice to cold call the 4 bet - can you clarify your thoughts? I think the guy played bad after the flop but he seemed to be playing your ace killer strategy pre flop.
I don’t know why he didn’t raise you out after the flop with a set? He should know y could could have a straight draw. And he called the all in after you hit a straight already.
Cool video as always - Definitely agree with your points in heads up and 3-way pots. Multi-way(which happens a lot in smaller stakes from my experience), I tend to play them more passively, and just focus on pot odds/implied odds as the main drivers for my more passive decisions. Speaking of multi-way, it would be super helpful if you could make a future video on strategies for playing multi-way pots in the smaller stakes(For different hand strengths - Big Broadways, medium pairs, Scs, etc.) Thanks for the content!
I recently changed my game up to be more agressive; moving from being a fish to being a decent player. It still takes a lot to 3bet with suited connectors, miss on the flop and bluff. i’m learning how to though
The first hand I have already put your opponent on a set with a cold call 3 bet range either pocket pairs or suited broadway holding. Because I wouldn’t suspect most players would call a three bet with suited connector especially with a original raiser behind yet to act
The last one I watched explained to me that calling with pocket aces is a winning strategy, generally. This one shows you how to win when you flop an open ended straight with a suited connector and then hit the straight on the river. He clearly would have bluffed into a set had the straight missed.
His opponent bet to strongly for him to try and bluff. If he didn't hit on the river and this opponent checked or did a small raise then he would of tried to bluff and he would of been called and lost. Thats why you have to be very careful of even players that are trying to trap you and check with good hands. Trip 7's is a great hand for this board. This video id just telling you how to basically bluff sometimes when you don't get the cards you need on the turn or river. The video is a bad example though considering he has the nuts and anyone can win with this hand. This is the type of hand every player wants, your opponent has a great hand but you have a better one.
That's so interesting. This is more a question than a statement, but I would have put pocket sevens and pocket eights in BB's range. I don't have Monker or GTO Wizard, but I would be curious to see what the optimal solution for BB facing a 3Bet from the BTN is. In my limited thinking, I imagine BTN could be 3Betting pretty wide, so flatting a strong mid PP doesn't seem crazy. I guess if MP 4bets, it's a snap fold and by flatting, BB incentivizes MP to jam with a strong hand. Of course, for me, playing these mid PPs correctly from the blinds is the most complex challenge pre-flop. I would have likely folded 77 too. But not at all surprised to see a (weak) reg show up with a flopped set here. Thoughts?
My rule of thumb is of someone 3bets, assume they have JJ and proceed accordingly. So the BB should have AQ, AK, QQ, KK, or AA. Maybe JJ or TT but those probably could fold. AA, KK and AK can 4 bet, so Queens and AQ are the most likely imo. Thought the play was good post flop.
If you were the guy with the pocket 77's who flopped a set, are you ever folding there? Should he have protected harder on the flop instead of checking to try and deny equity?
I needed this video, thanks! I rarely play suited connectors because I fear that any flushes will be beaten by a suited ace. But in that scenario, It's a very rare villain who would bet a flush draw. His turn bet is either a made hand or an induced bluff. Thanks for posting this on FB, so I would watch it again.
At that stake level I would cold call $4.25 in any position with hands that are a lot worse than pocket 7's (Q9 for example) to see the flop. Then he flops a set. Is he to fold then when the board suggests a draw??? Also, he has a redraw to a full house. As you said, if you had bricked, instead of "sucking out" (he had you right down to the river), you would have had an automatic fold.
I like a lot of Nathan's videos but this one seems like bad advice to me. Don't just pile on here and attack me if you disagree, make a good argument against what I am saying here. Firstly, I 100% agree with the preflop strategy. It is good to mix 3 betting and calling in the BTN with these sorts of hands, flatting effectively caps our range and makes it harder for us to rep strong hands postflop. However, once we hit the flop I think it starts to go backwards. The BB has a pretty strong range, and when you check back the flop and flat the turn you are capping your range pretty heavily. Most of our sets and overpairs + will be betting flop initially, and raising turn often in this line. It doesn't make a whole sense to check back flop, flat the turn then take a stab to the opponents check on the river. When the opponent checks the river they have mostly junky ace highs (which fold probably fold turn to a raise anyway) and overpairs they are checking for pot control and will never fold to a river bet. Even some ace highs might find a call against our ten high if the river totally bricks out. I think the hand in this video was played too passively postflop and would be more profitable played a bit more aggressively.
Good analysis. After checking flop back and flatting the turn, any bluff on a bricky river would be stack suicidal. Even A high hand would be good bluff catcher. So, (Bluff is) Out of question. . Obviously, playing a speculative hand on this kind of board requires more poker skills which beside aggression includes the reading, too. And this is already advanced poker! . I want to believe that the poster assumed the players profile on this stake is not that high to go so deep in analysis, yet when it comes to coaching, that’s not an excuse.
I agree with most everything with the exception of what his range was. I have a lot to learn but I say extremely highly unlikely he has JJ-AA. But I don’t know this player. I’d say his range is big but I’d say 22-99 and any non pair combination of broadway cards.
Thank you Nathan. May I suggest a reality check like at 2:50 when you show the villain's stats. I would ask what would be solid players' stats and whats your table image/stats?
I’m learning so much from your videos and your first book (so fare).. This one in particular opened my eyes on how to play suited connectors.. I will definitely try to expand my opening range in late position with this strategy.. thanks for shearing all that great knowledge 🙏
yea but if flatted a 3 bet of 3x the bb after a check raise from a 2 bet with pot equity with a backdoor gutshot inside str8 draw, and the rake was 30% before flatting with a stat vp of 40 id bluff at it n i hope i hit my open ended diamond draw, then just put em on a range of jacks or better and move all in. Maybe.
What do we do if the river is a diamond and he shoves? He bet the diamond on the turn, so I assume we are just going to call any regularish-sized bet(as opposed to raising). But do we call a shove too and hope he doesn't have AK-AQ of diamonds?
Ok, what if a 10 hit on the river i stead of the 6, you raise, your opponent shoves- is that a lay down scenario? Or do you call? What would be your thought process on that kind of a scenario? Opponent could have 10/J, Q/10 possibly, A/10 etc, and of course could have high pocket pair or been lucky and hit trips. Your kicker will be lower likely than their kicker if,they hit the 10 on river, but could be larger if they played something like 10/8 suited. Is their all in push somehting to be overly cautious of and throw away your hand and wait for a better spot? Or is it an fairly easy call?
can't find a good online site for US. can you recommend? i'd like to start with modest stakes, to get a feel for the online game and give myself time to figure out the platforms ant the various tracking stuff.
Jump on Global Poker- games are super soft and they seem to be holding it together so far with the best “legality” in those states that prohibit poker, as they’ve developed what they consider a similar model to the lottery. The only downside is that to play tourneys you’re going to need to start with at least $400, as the lowest buy in for anything worthwhile is $3.30 and with soft play, comes crazy play, and you can feel the variance already! Lol That being said, anyone with any semblance of sense and self control will do fine and I’ve already cashed out hundreds off my initial $10. Best of luck!
Since I started listening to your channel I have been able to consistently win. You are the GOAT of online poker. I want to play against you if😂 your open to.
You said seat 1s cold call pf was bad. Is the reason why because he is cold calling a 3 bet? I’m trying to put myself in his shoes to see what the better play would be if flatting is not correct. Probably fold (unless the 3better was a maniac and maybe do a light 4 bet?)
Great video but what about all the other dozens of scenarios. Let's say suited connectors ooP, or other positions etc, so many other scenarios to learn from. Would love to see all of those!
Nathan I want to thank you my bruh....I ordered 1 of your books a few years ago it was tye wrong order and you gave me the book I wanted for free. You are a good person. I love your channel. I don't have alot of time to watch all tye videos but thabks Nathan. You dont have to do ehat you do for us. I respect that. You dont pressure us to buy your products and i respect that also. Hopefully i get to plat vs you one day take care bruh.
How is calling with 7s when your playing that deep a bad call pre? He’s set mining on you, he caught his set just got unlucky on the river and probably put you on stronger than 10/9s
A Bad Reg won't check raise so BET on the flop. You can check or bet on the turn because he will check to you. If he donk bets you can flat or fold. What's wrong with this strategy?
Hey thanks for the video, I Jamed one guy at the river re raising all in with 10 high, he did fold on a similar situation, came in to check if it was the correct play 👍👌 but I'm starting out poker, pretty happy about that hand tho, thank you sir for this video
U know how awsome u are, right??? u explain things i a way a 10 year old can deeply understand, and u explain so fast and fluid, u are my favorite coach on youTube, i also follow johnattan little, he is good too, but slower. Time is the main cash as u know! :D
not sure what you frequencies look like to T9s should only be flatted around 20% of the time in that spot/ most frequent play should be 3beting 90 percent pot
Looks like he played that pretty well. 3 of a kind is a real good hand especially when there isn't a pair on the board. If he would of checked or raised a little bit and you bricked on the river then you would of possibly tried to bluff him and he would of made you pay 😆. This was a bad beat hand for him 😆. He checked with trips on the flop. Thats why I don't really understand why if you check or limp that people think you have a bad hand cause many players will check good hands or limp with them myself included. I probably would of bet something after the flop if I got three 7's but I think he played this hand pretty well. If you didn't hit on the river then you would of folded and he wouldn't of won much so I guess he should of bet after the flop.
Nathan, buddy, excellent vlog again. Would you still bluff with an A or K on the river in spite of putting all unpaired A's and K's in his range? I know in hindsight he only had 7's
The villain's raised on the turn suggest that A or K likely not on his range anymore. As a result I narrowed his range to at least an over pair but not AA or KK because Nathan will face a 4bet pre-flop and Nathan will be forced to fold his 9 10s. Since the villain is a bad REG called a 3bet PF middle pairs 66 77 88 would be part of his range too. In that case a set on the flop is a possibility. I was a little surprised when Nathan says he did not expect the villain has 77. Back to answer your question. Yep, if Nathan missed the river and A or K comes, the bluff might work on over pair. Honestly, all I said above are just my opinion untested never been proven in practice. I was not a serious poker player, but after I watched and bought Nathan's 1st book CTM + 6 hr. Videos I'm seriously thinking playing cash online poker. But I'm taking my time. I want to learn more. I've been watchjng Nathan's videos for over a month now. Even though the book and videos are old, but the FUNDAMENTALS in micros are really SOLID!!!!!!I think it will stand test of time in micros.
I am sorry but i dont think most of my opponents from NL25 Zoom would fold an overpair on this runout, as I dont have many nutted hands here: There are no middle pairs that turned sets in my 3-betting range IP, there are only 4 combos of 9Ts, 2 of 87s, 2 of 76s, no 45s as I d get easily explotable to the 4-bets, an overpair is usually fast-played on these limits and checking back the flop crosses it out, so bluffing the river against a half-pot bet would be just punting.
New subscriber. I really would’ve liked to of heard is what would you have done if the river was a brick you missed all your draws and the villain bets 50% what would your bluff amount have been?
I like your videos very much, however the majority of the examples of your material I have seen is a best case scenario. This hand for example…. “How to play suited connectors?” Make the nuts…. Lol. Ok. Your “How to bluff” video? Get the perfect runout of overcards to top pair on the flop… Maybe some videos where you just end up check/folding the turn after 3 betting pre or something. Bad spots. I really like your format, these videos aren’t too long, theyre too the point. I’m not expert but your analysis seems to be very good. But as others have said, maybe make an alternate of this video where you dont make the stone nuts on the river, and then explain good options and why they are good options.
There is something that's called equity. Equity is the percentage of the time you're expected to win a hand. In this specific situation, you have T9d on 7832 with 2 diamonds. Pot is 10$. If he shoves all in (80$) the pot would be 10$ (money in the pot+his 80$=90$). Now you can't cover his all in with your stacks because you have around 100BB (you have 45$ after he theoretically went all in) so you would need to put 45$ into 55$ pot (since you can't win his full 80$, only how much you can cover with your stacks, in this case that's 45$ more) you're risking 45$ more to win 55$ (his all in + 10$ that was already in +your45$ that's 100$ž so roughly you need to be right one out of 2 times you make that call. Next what we do is count how many outs we have. 52 cards in the deck, you have 2, 4 are on the flop, so there are 46 remaining cards. Out of those 46 remaining cards, there are 4 jacks that can help us, 4 sixes that can help us and sure 3 nines and 3 tens, but I doubt you can call that as outs, since opponent probably has 2 pairs or better. There are also 13 diamonds in the deck, 2 are dealt to you, 2 are on the table, one jack diamond, one 6 diamond, so that's: 4 jacks 4 sixes 7 diamonds 15 outs total out of 46. So roughly in 460 times you find yourself in this situation, you are expected to win 150 times, but other 310 times you will get beat. You will get the card you need roughly one in three times. But for that scenario to be profitable, you should be getting better pot odds than the one you get in this situation, which is 1:2, meaning you don't have required equity to make the call I am still new to this and I'm sorry if I miscalculated, if I did, please feel free to correct me :) hope this was helpful
Pot = $10 Bet = $45 Call = $45 45 / 100 = 0.45 x 100 = 45% You need to win 45% to breakeven You have 9 outs to the flush and 8 outs to the straight 9 + 8 = 17 x 2 = 34% You will win 34% and you need to win at least 45% So if the villain goes all in on the turn you FOLD
First of all answer this question: Which hands villain will overpotjam the turn? Remember, at the time you don't know his hand. Then you make the calculations. If you against AK or AQ of diamonds, your flush outs are dead, but your pair outs are semi alive. If you against sets, some flush outs are gone. If you against overpairs then the answers given apply.
@@ignaciopiedra1598 2 of the 17 outs you counted are the same card. He has 15 outs (6 non diamond straight cards+9 flush cards) Everything else was close enough. 15x2=30% to win, so he still doesnt have the equity to call.
Where I play no one is ever folding JJ. Even if they are not the aggressor they will just check call you all the way so only way to win is to make your hand.
Yeah that's one of the worst things sometimes you reasonably turn off some hands but then the guy just decides that pair of 7s or 3 4 suited is his God given hand that he will duble his money with it no matter what, the worst thing is they usually do hit their things because why wouldn't they.
Since when are suited connectors one of the most difficult ones?? 🤔 If so: What about AJo, Pocket Jacks in 3bet pots, etc.? Are these ones than infinite difficult? 😆😂
He acts 2nd And would have attempted only if the opponent didn't bet... Yes he would have lost but would win more times than losing long-term with the bluff. Checking down after the flop on every street would be a bad play.
Thatbis why making next cards really expensive best strategy with trips… then trios usually win! Unless you are really gambler so making the pot odds nit favorable is best
What bluffing strategies are working for you right now? Also, check out my other new video on advanced bluffing techniques with QJ offsuit: th-cam.com/video/hNT9im-_vdI/w-d-xo.html
😎 🏝 🎨❣️
Bluff strategy that is working great…
leading into a paired board on the flop w/ 1/2 pot bet.
With a tight image, this play seems to work OFTEN!
Note: only betting this spot 1/3- 1/2 of the time
@@ryandaniel8856 With a loose image like mine it works pretty good. If I check raise from the small blind, players automatically assume that I got lucky and called preflop with a duce or some other low card
I am with one of the earlier replies. I have lots of trouble with these hands and seem to end up either folding or bluffing and then losing to an overpair or a set like in this video even if I hit anything.
Good video, thanks Nathan, although I feel like you made this sound more complicated than it needed to be.
1 - Suited connectors in position - 75% raise/25% flat - yes absolutely, depending on whether the player opening is a Lag, Tag, Nit, or Maniac.
2 - 3betting these types of hands in position is advantageous because you can rep a wider range of premium hands, which will in turn allow you to realize greater profits when these hands actually hit the board and your opponents continue to call you with AQs and AKs thinking that they are hero'ing. You are 23% to hit a pair, 5.5% to hit 2pair or better. More often than not you will hit a pair + draw flopping somewhere between 37-45% equity against overpairs. These spots are especially profitable in cash games against smaller effective stack sizes.
3 - Players out of position that hit the flop harder than you; i.e. that cap their range right away, will typically indicate this by overbetting on early streets, allowing you to fold out very easily in poor equity situations.
Playing suited connectors in the HJ, CO, and BTN spots historically has been far more profitable for me in low-mid stakes cash games than playing premium hands.
Well said, thanks for watching my poker videos!
This 3-point observation is sweet and concise. Thanks.
@@ACE-sx8mo You bet! I've never met a suited 76 on the button I didn't like! 🤠😎
I see a lot of regs calling 3bets with low and middle pairs OOP. I used to have the same leak but stopped calling anything less than 88 unless the sizing makes more sense to call. It has taught me to be analytical with my overpairs when facing aggression in 3bet pots on dry boards. Players make it very clear they hit bingo.
Always great videos, really appreciate seeing the action by action break down.
That said, I feel like too often unless the video is "HOW TO BLUFF A REG" you frequently have videos where the player (or possibly, you) ends up with the nuts (or close to it). I feel like I OFTEN play hands as you've described, but the river is a blank or some trap card and now I'm knee deep in a wasted draw pot and trepidacious about just folding out, or checking and revealing my drawing hand.
Could you possibly start creating some videos where players end up in sticky AF situations, against lesser-known opponents and even some advice on how to master the art of folding trap hands/coolers?
Appreciate the content and the wisdom.
Some times you need to give away with your draws on the river and sometimes you need to bluff them. It depends of which villain hands you block. If you block his calling range and unblock his folding range you need to bluff. In this hand blocking his folding range (diamonds) is better to give up and dont bluff. If you dont have a diamond (Th9h for example) is a mandatory bluff.
I agree. It’s easy to explain winning a hand with the nuts.
Well 10d9d is a -EV even against one player with a non-fishy range. Even taking out QQ+ and AQ+...its still negative. If your playing lots of -EV situations "hoping" to hit your hand then your going to be losing alot of money. Very rarely do you flop anything you can continue with to a decent bet...and if you do end up opened ended on the flop...your rarely ever hitting the nuts by the river. In live lower stakes....your usually against 3 + players when you do flat...sometimes up to 5...and then even a 3 bet and you almost always have two callers +. Just my experience.
Nice
I have tried this strategy on a low stakes micro games. 5c 10c blinds. I don't think I can play suited connectors anymore because everytime I do not make my cards, at the river I try to make a bluff, per video suggestion when opponent checks. Almost exactly how this video is played out, 9 out of 10 times I was correct on predicting the range of hand they had. However 8 out of those 9 I predict when I bluff, they always calls.. people call with AK when hitting nothing, they will not lay down their pairs or hands. I've lost so much from bluffing, so I just stopped playing suited connectors period unless its QJ or KQ and higher...
What is the thought behind bluffing the river if an ace/king hits? Because that smacks the opponents range a lot of the time.
I don't think a passive nit would bet the turn with an unpaired AK/AQ.
@@FefeLeVrai i’m not saying they have bet the turn i’m saying check check, check check, check and then we bet. (if an A or K hits) i don’t understand that hypothetical situation which Nathan said he would bluff
Nathan said that at 8:50, just after calling the turn bet. He's talking about the hand the way it went down, not your alternate scenario where turn goes check check.
@@FefeLeVrai ahhh , makes sense. thanks for clearing it up 👍🏼
Love the video, the only problem I see is why would you ever turn the ten into a bluff on the river. In the small stakes games i play, people almost always call their overpairs here and I would just fold out their over cards. A river ten feels like a call or a check because their range is overcards that will most likely fold or over pairs that will most likely call. I could see a very small bet if you think you could get value from ace high after opponent checks.
QFT. The idea that a T makes a difference is nuts. Actually the idea that transform a T into a bluff and get snapped called makes the rest of the analysis very suspect
Lots of people say things about poker are they right? Who knows ive never seen this dude only heard self proclaimed winner
I really dislike the flop check. We have a range advantage and a small cbet stops us capping our range letting us bluff future streets. Running the line check-call-bluff looks really fishy and usually gets looked up by any value from villian, especially if you put him on the range that you're talking about.
Sometimes you want to capped your range when it is uncapped. And you need to have some draws protecting your checking range.
This man speaks wisdom. check / call / bluff on a missed river throws away your fold equity, isn't folding any overpairs on the river. If he's a bad micro reg, protecting your range is ridiculous, he's not that sophisticated.
he did flop a set
How do we have a range advantage? We are in position (button) which lets us potentially play more loose as well as doing a three bet. Betting/raising is basically always easier than calling. I assume someone calling a three bet OOP to have a better range than someone doing the three bet.
Even though I agree with your statement. If someone has AA, KK, QQ he won't fold too often at a river bluff.
I've been reducing my c-bets on the flop and it is working. It's good for situations like this, and it's good to have some flexibility on the turn and river.
All valid points but the bluff story doesn't check out of your line is 3 bet, check, call, overbet river (assuming you bricked and the river continues to lend to being wet). An overpair at small to mid stakes almost certainly calls every time there, in my experience.
Bluff stories almost always require at least 3 out of the 4 streets of aggression now (which is different from the past ABC type play/culture of poker in the 2000s).
3:35 Open-ended straight draw, Backdoor flush draw, 2 overcards. What should you do?
Thanks for the analysis. At 50NL perhaps it is unusual for players to cold call a 3bet with pairs below TT from the BB, as they are more savvy to the hand strength required. However, at the lower stakes I play, I was expecting 77-99 to call, along with some more speculative hands. So I did come to the same conclusion on the flop to check back, but more out of concern for the BB's set advantage (I would never 3bet 77 and 88 BU vs HJ, but maybe you would at some frequency) than his overpairs.
Wait - I just watched a training of yours that listed 77 as one of your 5 must play hands…you mention 20% equity and favorable implied odds. In this one you don’t like the guys choice to cold call the 4 bet - can you clarify your thoughts? I think the guy played bad after the flop but he seemed to be playing your ace killer strategy pre flop.
I don’t know why he didn’t raise you out after the flop with a set? He should know y could could have a straight draw. And he called the all in after you hit a straight already.
Bluffers usually leave to table first; )
Absolutely love the new format, keep at it Nathan, really really good!
Thanks Tino!
Cool video as always - Definitely agree with your points in heads up and 3-way pots. Multi-way(which happens a lot in smaller stakes from my experience), I tend to play them more passively, and just focus on pot odds/implied odds as the main drivers for my more passive decisions.
Speaking of multi-way, it would be super helpful if you could make a future video on strategies for playing multi-way pots in the smaller stakes(For different hand strengths - Big Broadways, medium pairs, Scs, etc.)
Thanks for the content!
I recently changed my game up to be more agressive; moving from being a fish to being a decent player. It still takes a lot to 3bet with suited connectors, miss on the flop and bluff. i’m learning how to though
Hi Nathan great explanation. CUrios to know how much you would've bluffed had you missed the river? Thanks
The first hand I have already put your opponent on a set with a cold call 3 bet range either pocket pairs or suited broadway holding. Because I wouldn’t suspect most players would call a three bet with suited connector especially with a original raiser behind yet to act
The last one I watched explained to me that calling with pocket aces is a winning strategy, generally. This one shows you how to win when you flop an open ended straight with a suited connector and then hit the straight on the river. He clearly would have bluffed into a set had the straight missed.
His opponent bet to strongly for him to try and bluff. If he didn't hit on the river and this opponent checked or did a small raise then he would of tried to bluff and he would of been called and lost. Thats why you have to be very careful of even players that are trying to trap you and check with good hands. Trip 7's is a great hand for this board. This video id just telling you how to basically bluff sometimes when you don't get the cards you need on the turn or river. The video is a bad example though considering he has the nuts and anyone can win with this hand. This is the type of hand every player wants, your opponent has a great hand but you have a better one.
That's so interesting. This is more a question than a statement, but I would have put pocket sevens and pocket eights in BB's range. I don't have Monker or GTO Wizard, but I would be curious to see what the optimal solution for BB facing a 3Bet from the BTN is. In my limited thinking, I imagine BTN could be 3Betting pretty wide, so flatting a strong mid PP doesn't seem crazy. I guess if MP 4bets, it's a snap fold and by flatting, BB incentivizes MP to jam with a strong hand. Of course, for me, playing these mid PPs correctly from the blinds is the most complex challenge pre-flop. I would have likely folded 77 too. But not at all surprised to see a (weak) reg show up with a flopped set here. Thoughts?
My rule of thumb is of someone 3bets, assume they have JJ and proceed accordingly. So the BB should have AQ, AK, QQ, KK, or AA. Maybe JJ or TT but those probably could fold. AA, KK and AK can 4 bet, so Queens and AQ are the most likely imo. Thought the play was good post flop.
If you were the guy with the pocket 77's who flopped a set, are you ever folding there? Should he have protected harder on the flop instead of checking to try and deny equity?
I needed this video, thanks! I rarely play suited connectors because I fear that any flushes will be beaten by a suited ace. But in that scenario, It's a very rare villain who would bet a flush draw. His turn bet is either a made hand or an induced bluff. Thanks for posting this on FB, so I would watch it again.
Glad it helped!
At that stake level I would cold call $4.25 in any position with hands that are a lot worse than pocket 7's (Q9 for example) to see the flop. Then he flops a set. Is he to fold then when the board suggests a draw??? Also, he has a redraw to a full house. As you said, if you had bricked, instead of "sucking out" (he had you right down to the river), you would have had an automatic fold.
What hand are you repping that would make any full pocket pair fold if the River was a brick? After all a king would be in their range
I like a lot of Nathan's videos but this one seems like bad advice to me. Don't just pile on here and attack me if you disagree, make a good argument against what I am saying here.
Firstly, I 100% agree with the preflop strategy. It is good to mix 3 betting and calling in the BTN with these sorts of hands, flatting effectively caps our range and makes it harder for us to rep strong hands postflop.
However, once we hit the flop I think it starts to go backwards.
The BB has a pretty strong range, and when you check back the flop and flat the turn you are capping your range pretty heavily.
Most of our sets and overpairs + will be betting flop initially, and raising turn often in this line. It doesn't make a whole sense to check back flop, flat the turn then take a stab to the opponents check on the river. When the opponent checks the river they have mostly junky ace highs (which fold probably fold turn to a raise anyway) and overpairs they are checking for pot control and will never fold to a river bet. Even some ace highs might find a call against our ten high if the river totally bricks out. I think the hand in this video was played too passively postflop and would be more profitable played a bit more aggressively.
Good analysis. After checking flop back and flatting the turn, any bluff on a bricky river would be stack suicidal. Even A high hand would be good bluff catcher. So, (Bluff is) Out of question.
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Obviously, playing a speculative hand on this kind of board requires more poker skills which beside aggression includes the reading, too. And this is already advanced poker!
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I want to believe that the poster assumed the players profile on this stake is not that high to go so deep in analysis, yet when it comes to coaching, that’s not an excuse.
I agree with most everything with the exception of what his range was. I have a lot to learn but I say extremely highly unlikely he has JJ-AA. But I don’t know this player. I’d say his range is big but I’d say 22-99 and any non pair combination of broadway cards.
An did you had not made the straight, you would have folded, right?
Thank you Nathan. May I suggest a reality check like at 2:50 when you show the villain's stats. I would ask what would be solid players' stats and whats your table image/stats?
I’m learning so much from your videos and your first book (so fare).. This one in particular opened my eyes on how to play suited connectors.. I will definitely try to expand my opening range in late position with this strategy.. thanks for shearing all that great knowledge 🙏
Awesome, thanks for watching my poker videos!
Thank you for the awesome video. That sounds like Yiruma, river flows in you in the background!
yea but if flatted a 3 bet of 3x the bb after a check raise from a 2 bet with pot equity with a backdoor gutshot inside str8 draw, and the rake was 30% before flatting with a stat vp of 40 id bluff at it n i hope i hit my open ended diamond draw, then just put em on a range of jacks or better and move all in. Maybe.
Hey Nathan do you still play in microstakes or have you mainly transitioned to 50NL and 100NL
Assuming, this specific hand, the villain does not lead out on the river, what is your bet (regardless if you complete the straight)
3/4, pot??
What do we do if the river is a diamond and he shoves? He bet the diamond on the turn, so I assume we are just going to call any regularish-sized bet(as opposed to raising). But do we call a shove too and hope he doesn't have AK-AQ of diamonds?
Ok, what if a 10 hit on the river i stead of the 6, you raise, your opponent shoves- is that a lay down scenario? Or do you call? What would be your thought process on that kind of a scenario? Opponent could have 10/J, Q/10 possibly, A/10 etc, and of course could have high pocket pair or been lucky and hit trips. Your kicker will be lower likely than their kicker if,they hit the 10 on river, but could be larger if they played something like 10/8 suited. Is their all in push somehting to be overly cautious of and throw away your hand and wait for a better spot? Or is it an fairly easy call?
can't find a good online site for US. can you recommend? i'd like to start with modest stakes, to get a feel for the online game and give myself time to figure out the platforms ant the various tracking stuff.
Jump on Global Poker- games are super soft and they seem to be holding it together so far with the best “legality” in those states that prohibit poker, as they’ve developed what they consider a similar model to the lottery. The only downside is that to play tourneys you’re going to need to start with at least $400, as the lowest buy in for anything worthwhile is $3.30 and with soft play, comes crazy play, and you can feel the variance already! Lol That being said, anyone with any semblance of sense and self control will do fine and I’ve already cashed out hundreds off my initial $10. Best of luck!
Keep these helpful contents coming. Very good 🔥🔥🔥🔥
More to come!
I like the way you explain your process, you make it very easy to follow !
Wow,I said go all in when you hit the nuts on the river and I was right! I am ready to crush baby.
Since I started listening to your channel I have been able to consistently win. You are the GOAT of online poker. I want to play against you if😂 your open to.
Nice work!
You said seat 1s cold call pf was bad. Is the reason why because he is cold calling a 3 bet? I’m trying to put myself in his shoes to see what the better play would be if flatting is not correct. Probably fold (unless the 3better was a maniac and maybe do a light 4 bet?)
Would you fold pf if they cold 4 bet
Great video but what about all the other dozens of scenarios. Let's say suited connectors ooP, or other positions etc, so many other scenarios to learn from. Would love to see all of those!
Will include those in a followup video. Thanks for watching my poker videos, glad they help!
Really liking these new videos keep it up!
Thanks I appreciate it and will do!
Nathan I want to thank you my bruh....I ordered 1 of your books a few years ago it was tye wrong order and you gave me the book I wanted for free. You are a good person. I love your channel. I don't have alot of time to watch all tye videos but thabks Nathan. You dont have to do ehat you do for us. I respect that. You dont pressure us to buy your products and i respect that also. Hopefully i get to plat vs you one day take care bruh.
Thanks IR, I appreciate the kind words :)
How is calling with 7s when your playing that deep a bad call pre? He’s set mining on you, he caught his set just got unlucky on the river and probably put you on stronger than 10/9s
nice vid. feel like i learn better with the situation playing out while you explain it. ive been watching poker lectures and didnt learn shit
Hey I need some PLO strategy advice
Great video. I have all 3 books of your books and read them all the time.
Thanks Brad and I am glad my books help! Thanks for being a big supporter of mine.
Don't like the check back on the flop when you 3bet 910s and flop 783. Depends on opponents 3bet calling range.
A Bad Reg won't check raise so BET on the flop. You can check or bet on the turn because he will check to you. If he donk bets you can flat or fold. What's wrong with this strategy?
@8:48… “If it had OF come a ten on the river, if it had OF come a 4 on the river…” 🤔
Or are you saying “had’ve” as a contraction of “had have”? 🤔
MumblesBadly Either one is grammatically incorrect. "If it had come..." would have been the only correct thing to say.
If you are bluffing on the river, what % would you bet?
Damn I a $10 pot on the flop Was considered high stakes.
I assumed you were well-off because of how good of a coach you are.
Hey thanks for the video, I Jamed one guy at the river re raising all in with 10 high, he did fold on a similar situation, came in to check if it was the correct play 👍👌 but I'm starting out poker, pretty happy about that hand tho, thank you sir for this video
Super analysis. Well done
This helps. Thanks, Nate
Thanks Yeah B, glad this one helped!
For sure Villian snap called the Riv thinking he had the Nuts, LOL
U know how awsome u are, right??? u explain things i a way a 10 year old can deeply understand, and u explain so fast and fluid, u are my favorite coach on youTube, i also follow johnattan little, he is good too, but slower. Time is the main cash as u know! :D
what if he went all in on the turn because he techn had you until right ?
Those dangerous and sneaky suited connectors
not sure what you frequencies look like to T9s should only be flatted around 20% of the time in that spot/ most frequent play should be 3beting 90 percent pot
Looks like he played that pretty well. 3 of a kind is a real good hand especially when there isn't a pair on the board. If he would of checked or raised a little bit and you bricked on the river then you would of possibly tried to bluff him and he would of made you pay 😆. This was a bad beat hand for him 😆. He checked with trips on the flop. Thats why I don't really understand why if you check or limp that people think you have a bad hand cause many players will check good hands or limp with them myself included. I probably would of bet something after the flop if I got three 7's but I think he played this hand pretty well. If you didn't hit on the river then you would of folded and he wouldn't of won much so I guess he should of bet after the flop.
let's say u didnt hit your straight and the guy bets half pot, how much are u raising him on the river for the bluff?
Can I find your books on audible?
Sorry but my books are only available on my website.
Nathan, buddy, excellent vlog again. Would you still bluff with an A or K on the river in spite of putting all unpaired A's and K's in his range? I know in hindsight he only had 7's
Thanks Kevin! Ya, that is definitely a difficult spot. I would probably fire on those cards though because they are also in our range.
The villain's raised on the turn suggest that A or K likely not on his range anymore. As a result I narrowed his range to at least an over pair but not AA or KK because Nathan will face a 4bet pre-flop and Nathan will be forced to fold his 9 10s. Since the villain is a bad REG called a 3bet PF middle pairs 66 77 88 would be part of his range too. In that case a set on the flop is a possibility. I was a little surprised when Nathan says he did not expect the villain has 77. Back to answer your question. Yep, if Nathan missed the river and A or K comes, the bluff might work on over pair. Honestly, all I said above are just my opinion untested never been proven in practice. I was not a serious poker player, but after I watched and bought Nathan's 1st book CTM + 6 hr. Videos I'm seriously thinking playing cash online poker. But I'm taking my time. I want to learn more. I've been watchjng Nathan's videos for over a month now. Even though the book and videos are old, but the FUNDAMENTALS in micros are really SOLID!!!!!!I think it will stand test of time in micros.
I am sorry but i dont think most of my opponents from NL25 Zoom would fold an overpair on this runout, as I dont have many nutted hands here: There are no middle pairs that turned sets in my 3-betting range IP, there are only 4 combos of 9Ts, 2 of 87s, 2 of 76s, no 45s as I d get easily explotable to the 4-bets, an overpair is usually fast-played on these limits and checking back the flop crosses it out, so bluffing the river against a half-pot bet would be just punting.
not sure I would bluff the river if it came A or K... but I'm not a very good player
I’m confused. You said it was a small stakes game and then you turned around and said this is what I do in a higher State game like this, which is it
Awesome video!!
New subscriber. I really would’ve liked to of heard is what would you have done if the river was a brick you missed all your draws and the villain bets 50% what would your bluff amount have been?
I like your videos very much, however the majority of the examples of your material I have seen is a best case scenario.
This hand for example…. “How to play suited connectors?” Make the nuts…. Lol. Ok.
Your “How to bluff” video? Get the perfect runout of overcards to top pair on the flop…
Maybe some videos where you just end up check/folding the turn after 3 betting pre or something. Bad spots.
I really like your format, these videos aren’t too long, theyre too the point. I’m not expert but your analysis seems to be very good. But as others have said, maybe make an alternate of this video where you dont make the stone nuts on the river, and then explain good options and why they are good options.
If villain had gone all-in after the turn, would you have still stayed in?
There is something that's called equity. Equity is the percentage of the time you're expected to win a hand.
In this specific situation, you have T9d on 7832 with 2 diamonds. Pot is 10$. If he shoves all in (80$) the pot would be 10$ (money in the pot+his 80$=90$).
Now you can't cover his all in with your stacks because you have around 100BB (you have 45$ after he theoretically went all in)
so you would need to put 45$ into 55$ pot (since you can't win his full 80$, only how much you can cover with your stacks, in this case that's 45$ more)
you're risking 45$ more to win 55$ (his all in + 10$ that was already in +your45$ that's 100$ž
so roughly you need to be right one out of 2 times you make that call.
Next what we do is count how many outs we have. 52 cards in the deck, you have 2, 4 are on the flop, so there are 46 remaining cards.
Out of those 46 remaining cards, there are 4 jacks that can help us, 4 sixes that can help us and sure 3 nines and 3 tens, but I doubt you can call that as outs, since opponent probably has 2 pairs or better. There are also 13 diamonds in the deck, 2 are dealt to you, 2 are on the table, one jack diamond, one 6 diamond, so that's:
4 jacks
4 sixes
7 diamonds
15 outs total out of 46.
So roughly in 460 times you find yourself in this situation, you are expected to win 150 times, but other 310 times you will get beat.
You will get the card you need roughly one in three times. But for that scenario to be profitable, you should be getting better pot odds than the one you get in this situation, which is 1:2, meaning you don't have required equity to make the call
I am still new to this and I'm sorry if I miscalculated, if I did, please feel free to correct me :) hope this was helpful
Pot = $10
Bet = $45
Call = $45
45 / 100 = 0.45 x 100 = 45%
You need to win 45% to breakeven
You have 9 outs to the flush and 8 outs to the straight
9 + 8 = 17 x 2 = 34%
You will win 34% and you need to win at least 45%
So if the villain goes all in on the turn you FOLD
First of all answer this question: Which hands villain will overpotjam the turn? Remember, at the time you don't know his hand. Then you make the calculations. If you against AK or AQ of diamonds, your flush outs are dead, but your pair outs are semi alive. If you against sets, some flush outs are gone. If you against overpairs then the answers given apply.
@@ignaciopiedra1598 2 of the 17 outs you counted are the same card. He has 15 outs (6 non diamond straight cards+9 flush cards)
Everything else was close enough.
15x2=30% to win, so he still doesnt have the equity to call.
@@xxWh1teboixx you are ok. I made a mistake. He has 6 outs to the straight because two of them are diamonds. Thank you.
Awesome 👍😁 thanks
Would love it if you posted videos when the flop doesnt turn your way.
Check out the video I made last week, huge bluff with 9 high.
Where I play no one is ever folding JJ. Even if they are not the aggressor they will just check call you all the way so only way to win is to make your hand.
Suited connectors should be played only to make straight flushes to earn the bad beat possibility
In a perfect world yes but variance is another game but great video
Thank you.
I don't think villain is folding JJ to a river raise? Or I'm wrong
He is the best!
So good gotta grab more of your boos thanks
one of those times you're hoping you don't get a flush and just get a straight so you can know for sure you have the nuts.
so good so impress video!
Thank you sir :)
Yeah that's one of the worst things sometimes you reasonably turn off some hands but then the guy just decides that pair of 7s or 3 4 suited is his God given hand that he will duble his money with it no matter what, the worst thing is they usually do hit their things because why wouldn't they.
15:54…pocket 77! And you were going to bluff him?!
Think its missed value not to be the flop!! No doubt
Since when are suited connectors one of the most difficult ones?? 🤔 If so: What about AJo, Pocket Jacks in 3bet pots, etc.? Are these ones than infinite difficult? 😆😂
So if the 4of clubs rolls off and he bets 30 percent ur saying ur gonna lose a big pot huh.....🤔🤔🤔
I can't wait to get out of micro stakes.. No1 is folding JJ on that board in my games lol
Nice video
If the river was a T, you weren't gonna make JJ fold, with your line, as only Aces could play that way as value and alot more bluffs
“If it had’Ve come a ten on the river…”
“If they had’VE thought through their hand…”
??? 🤔
That other guy was set mining. I don’t think that is surprising
Well, isn't it convenient that you flopped an open-ender and a back door draw?
What an example😂😂😂
Had you not hit your straight and bluffed you would have lost though.
He acts 2nd And would have attempted only if the opponent didn't bet... Yes he would have lost but would win more times than losing long-term with the bluff. Checking down after the flop on every street would be a bad play.
Thatbis why making next cards really expensive best strategy with trips… then trios usually win! Unless you are really gambler so making the pot odds nit favorable is best