The Breakdown of the Republican Coalition (Trump's Fault?) || Peter Zeihan
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 พ.ค. 2024
- If you watched yesterday's video, then you already know that Donald Trump has no shot at winning the general election (assuming he's not DQ'd or in jail). Today, we're looking at WHY Trump can't get elected.
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As a Latino, I can confirm that the LatinX term is rather offensive.
As someone who studied LatAm history in college I always found the term to be extremely stupid.
Musk will be so disappointed to hear this.
Theres Nothing quite like white college academics trying to force a race to use a fabricated term, in the name of being culturally sensitive of course.
The dumbest part is english already HAS a gender neutral term, just fucking 'Latin'. We literally call it Latin music and Latin food, we use it for everything else.
White woke liberals see you as an ally of white supremacy. But then again, they see the killing of the Jews of Israel to be an act of decolonisation, so don't worry about upsetting them.
Saved this video because it's gonna be interesting to see how accurate peter is on this one.
Frum is predicting the same thing: Trump can't hold a coalition together, and the Dem factions will come home facing the alternative.
He’s certainly all in. Just glad he isn’t “moving to Canada” if Trump wins.
I think pretty accurate. I was a 216 Trump voter for various reasons too long to get into. But I realized that Trump also talked more than acted and when he acted he acted like a Democrat. He just loved to hear his own voice and out of his boasting and voice MAGA was born which quite a few former Trump voters are disgusted about. They are behaving cult like and have made Trump into a god. In the end I do not see that they alone can pull it out in the general.
@@JG-MV a few thousand votes in democrat strongholds does not equal a “decisive victory”
2022 was the last election democrats steal, or it’s game over
@@TommyBlantonMaybe, just maybe, many will…want to move to somewhere…Canada or anywhere else if… there is so much going on in this new age of politics…even we, Canadians, are wary of the actual cycle ( as we should all be)…😢
KIng of the North! Peter looks like a Stark member in Game of Thrones :)
Thnx … appreciate the clarity of your contributions ❤
Always amazes me that in a country of many 100’s of millions, Trump and Biden are the only two choices…
They're not, but they are who everyone is polling for.
You can thank rich donors of both parties for that. They pull the strings. We desperately need publicly funded campaigns and a change from first past the post elections. Approval voting is my favorite voting system.
@@Alexadria205 Yes, but... The rich donors have backed Desantis and Haley... Hasn't worked out for them. In fact, it made Desantis kowtow to his donors and alienate possible supporters.
It's like Peter said. The 1 member per district system makes it only really work with 2 main candidates. If another Republican-like party ran it would help Biden win and if another Democrat-like party ran it would help the Republican nominee win. The only way to realistically change things is by pushing an amendment to the electoral system
Vivek ramaswamy
The last few US presidential elections have been about who you are voting against, not who you are voting for. Between Biden and Trump? I think most people already know who they are more against.
Given who gets put forth as candidates, our system seems pretty flawed.
You are absolutely spot on! All of the political wonks are thinking in terms of "votes for," instead of "votes against" and this is where they go off the rails, Peter included.
True, however, it’s also about bringing people out to vote. Trump supporters are highly motivated. No one is highly motivated to vote for Biden, and it’s less of a motivating factor now to vote against Trump (compared to 2020, where Trump got the 2nd highest number of votes of any candidate ever)
@@aibarra4141 Abortion is the motivating issue this time around. And Trump can easily motivate the opposition, since he is on video stating that he believes women seeking abortions need to be punished.
@@NickYankee
Abortion today is out of control. Women are using it as a form of birth control. It’s an issue that actually only affects a relatively small percentage of people. Because women are a little over half of the population. Probably half of the women in America can’t have a baby because of age or other reasons. Then also over half would never have an abortion for moral reasons. So when you actually get down to it, it’s a relatively small number of people that are affected by abortion.
Go back and look at the history of abortion. Roe was flawed and a joke, and RBG has even admitted that. That is the thing that started the biting America. And it was based on garbage not the constitution. And it is an issue that belongs at the state level because it has no standing under the constitution.
Also, when it was passed, it was supposed to basically limit abortion to 12 weeks because even then it was supposed to be something very rarely used. It was supposed to be only when necessary. Even the Democrats even Bill Clinton, and Hillary Clinton originally said abortion should be very rare. Rare and limited.
But now the Democrats want lake term abortions for healthy babies that is straight up murder. Almost all of Europe limits abortion to 12 or 13 weeks. The Democrats are actually out of tune with probably 80% of America on this issue. But a few states have tried to make it illegal even for raping incest, which is stupid. Because even pro life, people understand that there are certain situations where an abortion should be allowed.
Making that a national issue is ridiculous. Fight that out in your state. Also, Peter has a serious case of Trump derangement syndrome and he’s a left-wing guy so he’s very biased when he comes to this stuff.
@NickYankee you’re right, abortion is motivating across the aisle and independents. I’m not sure if it’s as strong of a factor in the Presidential race vs state/local elections.
I don’t think Trump has ever said that women seeking abortions need to be punished. I’m open to being wrong. But Trump dodges abortion question and redirects to it that he got the conservative Justices into SCOTUS.. when people think of Trump, it’s the big lie, not his abortion stance.
There's plenty of nuance left out of course, but this might be the best short, high level summary of how US politics works that I've ever heard.
Almost everything he said, was wrong, and does not describe the current system at all. His predictions will all fail because he doesn’t understand anything about American politics.
@@seaneustace9838 Which part was wrong?
@@Odin029 He's definitely wrong. Trump isn't up in the polls for no reason. He's more popular thank you think.
Yes, other than the fact that it completely gets everything wrong. We don’t generally call that nuance, we caught getting everything wrong.
100% I dont know a single person who supports trump out loud now that hes all over Epstein Island
Out there looking like you gonna find those damn o Driscoll's 🤠
As much as I like Peters big picture analysis the immediate politics are always up in the air and I would not be so sure Trump would not win.
Find myself frequently quoting my Dad (I call them 'nuggets of wisdom'); "those who say it can't be done are generally upstaged by those who don't know any better!"
Yea I don’t think anyone knows or can be sure right now, there was “no way Trump would win” in 2016. In the current climate I would not bet against him. I’m not confident he will win but with RFK making waves I really don’t think this is predictable at all.
I started out liking PZ and he keeps putting allowing himself to be used by sources.
You can look at the top Democrats and see they think Trump will win. Anyone that isn't delusional sees that Joe shouldn't be running a lawn care service nevermind a country.
You like delusional fairy tales, Peter lives in the land of facts. Follow the numbers and remember which candidate overturned Roe v Wade? Remind what the majority gender in this country is? What happened in 2020 and 2022, red wave, nah. Numbers don't lie. Delusional idiots do.
I’ll have to bookmark this particular video and come back later to see how well the prediction holds up.
Save the video yourself. PZ has a tendency to scrub his incorrect predictions.
He is living in the past. Many traditional Democrats are pro-Trump while many in the suburbs are starting to lean left. Its as if he doesn't understand demography
This is all well and good until you understand that 2020 was decided by 0.1135%
176,427 votes to win AZ, GA, MI, divided by all votes cast 155,505,139
I actually thought Peter was smarter thsn this.
Look at every election since the does decision. Reproductive rights are on the ballot in a bunch of swing states. Not a sure thing with the Saudis putting their thumb on the scale but Republicans are looking down the barrel of a historic defeat.
As an Australian who just watches American politics as an observer and would like to pretend it doesn't have very real consequences on us- it is very brave of you to piss off about 50% of your followers!
He's from Colorado that's why
Oi mate doesn't mean he's right.
idk if i would consider the trump base to be the whole/most of the republican party anymore. its hard to say.
Speak truth to power (the public) without fear or favour.
But he’s not, really. The people he’s pissing off are the MAGA hardcore, the so called “base”. These are the most active (and loud), so they often are the deciding votes in primaries, but their stridency, not to mention their delusions, has been alienating ordinary conservative voters since 2020, if not longer.
Back in 2015 there were some of us that saw Trump for what he was and could not support him. Unfortunately we were a small minority, but we’ve been growing. We grew enough by 2020 that Trump lost the election.
Sadly, a large amount of non-MAGA Republicans will still vote for Trump because they have problems with Biden. But I don’t think they’re the types that would get mad at Pete for stating the simple facts. It’s the delusional cult members that will loudly argue with Peter.
A small chance doesn't equal zero chance. 2016 is a perfect example of this.
Donald J. Trump just won the 2024 Election.==> th-cam.com/video/v2SGEY5dm-E/w-d-xo.html
Joe and the Ho are gonna go. Don't worry.
2016 the thumb on the scale was not applied hard enough. 2020 fixed that but looked absurd.
The main issue I see for Trump is the same issue I saw for Hillary...it is hard to overcome the otherside coming out to vote against you. It is hard enough to get people to come out and vote for you but when the otherside hates you so much they will come out to to vote against you for spite that is hard to overcome.
He had the benefit of nobody knowing what he was in 2016. At this point let’s be real the VAST majority of people who do vote already know how they feel about Trump and he is hyper popular if you have an R next to your name, but a lot of people outside of the Party despise him
Please do more of these about current state of US politics
Very interesting, Peter! Which of your videos had a slide showing a two-factor grid with the location in the 4 quadrants of components of the Dem coalition, the previous Republican coalition, and the recent Trump coalition: can't find it and would love to see it again :(
Peter is correct. Speaking as a Mexican raised 1st generation American, LatinX is ridiculous. I can only speak for my family and friends, but they unanimously agree and some have said that it’s an attempt at Americans trying to change a culture that isn’t theirs.
It's definitely some academic types who take offense at the gendered words in Spanish, yet it's ridiculous to try and change a language which you, presumably, do not speak yourself. Can I ask, does the term Latin, rather than Latino, bother you at all?
@@scottduncan92 When talking about my ethnicity, Latino or Hispanic are accurate and it doesn’t bother me at all. In fact, I prefer it. But it’s annoying when my nationality or heritage are assumed.
That's what left wing politics is all about these days.
And why working class voters tend to be Trump voters.
Never mind the fact, the word "Latin" comes from descendants of the Romans/Latin Europe. France, is a Latin country. My family in Italy thinks Italians are "Latin" in the US. It doesn't make sense anywhere but in the US.
@@iceromebuzz781 that’s true. Which is why Hispanic is also interchangeably used when talking about a Spanish-speaking population. I’d rather Americans pushing for LatinX use Hispanic since it is a unisex word except for in Spanish (hispano/hispana) and they’re focusing on the Spanish side of it anyways.
I always found amusing in the English language that party means both a group of people who drink, dance and have fun and a political organisation
Look up the old meaning of "an act of Congress".
Not in the legal world though.
It just means "a group". That's why it's a "party of 5" at a restaurant and a "search party".
Sounds like the same thing!!! LOL 😂
Political gatherings are a party 🎉. Food, drink, fun, that's how you get workers to go do get out the vote campaigns
How about a candidate that isn’t a in there 80’s? How about a candidate that is not extreme either side? How about someone that isn’t is some organizations pocket? The system is complete broken.
Interested to see where this election goes in the US. The most important one ever I believe.
They have said that ever since I cast my first presidential election vote in 1968.
At 69 years old….. best lesson I’ve learned was ‘never say never’.
Zeihan about every third video he does has to say “ I was wrong about that” on just about everything. I m going to have fun watching Zeihans career end when Trumps elected. I felt Zeihan had a real original book but I’m finding the more he talks the more he’s wrong. 😢
I suspect this is nothing but propaganda. It's historically very effective. Social media has changed that. Especially if and when we're on a level playing field.
@@dougarchbold1489 You are delusional. I will hold you to your comments.
@@randolphscottseamons3684 Right!
With AI doing lots of the work, you’re going to see a lot more of it!
@@dougarchbold1489 His credibility is going out the window quickly!
One aspect of the US system that is rarely discussed is that of who selects the candidates.
We not only have single candidate/single district, it's the members of the party in that district that select the candidate.
The squabbles between the local party organizations and the central committees is an important part of the political stew.
You must not be in California. Here we have 'open' elections for all but the Presidential candidates. The primary list for each office is usually long and can include multiple Dems and Repubs. The top two, regardless of party affiliation, go on to the general election and the one with the most votes wins. Especially with 'open' seats it usually ends up being a Dem vs a Dem or a Repub vs a Repub in the general election.
Well, waddaya knxw
You don’t even have to get to that point with all the money in politics the top one percent get to pick eight or nine candidates for both parties before the people ever get to vote. This means by definition they have already chosen everyone that is acceptable to them as a leader And if you want to vote for someone outside of this group, you can’t because every law in place makes it so it is hard to enter an election unless you do it two or three years ahead of time in other words even when we have fair elections unlike in 2020 the system is rigged and it is rigged by the wealthy for their own advantage . Fortunately, for that most people are too stupid to figure this out.
Watching George Bush and McCain in the early primary elections. Bush locked in the big donors as McCain was gaining. Bush had worked on his father campaign specifically on fund raising and had those people on speed dial. So I would say whoever raises the most money becomes the candidate. Hey, Trump has been raising money since November 4, 2020.
@@artistforfreedom At the Presidential level, yes. And senators, given that they run state-wide. But individual legislative districts can nominate and endorse candidates that the central committees really don't care for.
Cannot express enough how much I appreciate that you're explaining the concept of a political realignment and its basis in US history, which the vast majority of Americans remain blissfully unaware of.
A once-a-century realignment doesn't just crack one party wide open; it cracks both.
It called the great realignment
What realignment, for those of us outside the US?
doesn't effect outside the US. the neocon and neoliberal factions have failed to suppress opposition.@@mrgyani
Fourth Turning
@@mrgyani Populism causing things like Trump and Brexit to keep the political establishment from having too much control over major institutions.
I think you're forgetting the immigration issues which concern people on both sides
Well neither side has any kind of plan. They have campaign promises that don't have the attention span to actually work on the complexity of the issue.
Hey we need immigration reform Where's the Republican trump plan? Build walls that have never worked in the history of mankind? That might work on the really uneducated 80-year-old demographic, But once again alienating educated voters that know most immigration to legal happens from overstay visas. Right now Republicans could probably get something through that makes sense but they're too busy running sham impeachments because that's what Trump wants. Otherwise they've done almost nothing.
@@jayb6765 Plan? What kind of Plan do you need other than to follow the Rule of Law...oh! Silly me you mean the one where Democrats allow, no, encourage illegal aliens to enter the country un-thwarted then advocate for citizenship to gain an electoral majority, that Plan. You want Republicans to go along with that plan?
How about a plan where these illegal aliens are deported to their first country of sanctuary, which is not a plan at all but rather following the Rule of Law.
Your options for immigration in 2024 are building a wall or additional pathways for expediting legal immigration. If immigration is your issue these are your current political options.
@@austinduke8876And we know republicans won't do anything if their last 4 year track record is examined, so maybe we can get something done with two blue branches.
Would be interesting to hear your take on RFK Jr
I love listening to Peter on many things, but I doubt we’d get a fair opinion. Anyone who actually listens to RFK jr. quickly will realize he’s the only grown up in the room and is the only person capable of healing the divide, but those in power are demonizing him worse than they did Trump, and he’s the only candidate in history that the sitting president has refused protection for. A genuinely honorable man that I say protection prayers for every day. ❤️
Not geopolitics related but if youre going to do these hikes in winter I highly recommend you take an avalanche class if you havent already. The snowpack here in colorado is extremely unstable for most of the season. You would be surprised how little it takes to kick one off and if you dont know what to look for it is very easy to wander into a dangerous area. Even a small one can bury you with no way out and it is a very unpleasant way to die. Anyways, love your content and thanks for putting out these videos.
He's just outside his house. But I get what you say about avalanches. I do backcountry skiing, and I'm pretty fearful of those conditions.
They also said in 2016 it was completely impossible for Trump to win.
Yes.. but now people who were willing to take a chance in 2016 have seen him govern and had to deal with 8 years of this tantrums. I know many Republicans, Independents and even Democrats who voted for Trump as a protest in 2016 who will not vote for him again.
@@jakenunya1587 That may be the case, but he's picking up votes from both the hispanic and black communities this go round. He's also polling higher than Biden in both head to head and favorability ratings.
2016 was a fluke election aided by Russian troll farms. It's been nonstop losses for trump's republican party since then. 🤠
@@jakenunya1587 Yep, every one of my Republican friends either voted against Trump in 2020, or just didn't vote. Even some of my pro-Trump family members I suspect might have said they were voting for him in public, but then left the box blank in the voting booth in 2020. In public they feel they still need to be part of the team, but even they were frightened by his dictatorial tendencies. Family members that used to chant Trumps name, but now only quietly grumble about Biden instead. The signs are subtle, but they are there.
I voted for him the first time. Won't make that mistake again. If he wasn't such a virulent, narcissistic putz, he would step out of the race for the good of the party and the good of the country, and let a Haley or DeSantis clean Joe Biden's clock.
It is weird for me to see a party based on a person only, instead of a set of policies. The only "policy" that person really has is greviences with the other side.
Maybe that is normal in the rest of the world, but it is sad to see.
My number one political goal from when I first became able to vote in 2004 was to get enough control of the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v Wade.
I'm gonna vote for the man who actually got that done and didn't just talk about it. Whatever the hell else he wants to do is fine with me.
@MrBenMcLean "Whatever the hell else he wants to do is fine with me." That is putting a politician on the level of God. Again, sad.
PS: If your goal was to reduce abortions, how is that working out?
PSS: Almost any GOP candidate would have picked anti Roe vs. Wade judges. Trump was just following the standard corporate GOP playbook.
Trump lies less then the rest of them not saying much but it's true and I rather see another guy be president then trump and definitely not biden again
I think that's partly true but also partly an illusion - keep in mind that media cycles are always driven by negativity - even if a candidate has a whole portfolio of policies they espouse, only the grievances are going to get any air time
@sillyquiet I listen to what trump actually says and posts. In 2016 he would repeat "build that wall and have Mexico pay for it", "lock her up" and "repeal and replace Obamacare." He completed none of them, without losing his base.
He learned a lesson; why promise anything, no one cares. This time, he is as vague as can be...at best he is going to make things "great" or "better" with no real specifics. The only thing he is consistent about is REVENGE.
Thank you for this video Peter. Couldn’t say it any better than this. Stay warm !
Great insights.
The more you tell people he can't win, or worse, he can't run, the more they will want to prove you wrong, issues be damned.
The heart wants what the heart can’t have. I noticed the same thing during the first lockdowns in 2020. Never saw more people walking around outside.
Yeah he's getting his party waffle stomped and two elections so far and he's going to get them waffle stomped in a third. But his followers see that as a challenge not as an obvious outcome which it is. Nobody really likes Biden but if the alternative is this dude dear Lord.
@@pathkeepersPeople are fed up at this point. Biden is already losing black vote majorly. Democrats are losing Jews as a whole and normal humans that are democrats are realizing their party is splitting from the far left on the Gaza issue.
Exactly, and the Democrats figured this out, which is why they’re throwing every legal tactic against him.
The Democrats *WANT* Trump to be the GOP nominee, and they know that all they have to do to get the MAGA base riled up and energized is to go after Trump. That MAGA base will then be an energized enough coalition in the Primaries to push Trump through as the nominee.
A candidate like DeSantis or Haley would actually be a pretty solid threat against Biden, since they don’t have the baggage that Trump has with the Independents. The Dems don’t want a Haley or DeSantis candidate, and they know that MAGA is purely reactionary, so all they have to do is attack Trump.
Pretty easy and solid tactic. But, barring any huge change in the political landscape (which, I know, is a laughable caveat in 2024), Biden is going to absolutely demolish Trump, and I’m not a Biden supporter in the least.
My main fear is the potential for terrorism after that, because MAGA is going to be convinced that there’s no way unpopular with the general population, so they’re going to believe that the election was stolen.
Trump was spot on on most issues. His annoying personality quirks are the problem. Hopefully many sane conservatives, independents and former democrats can ask themselves if they were better off under trump or biden and see an obvious answer and vote appropriately.
The most frustrating part of the two party system has to be that very few individuals actually agree with EVERY major plank of either platform. So, you have to pick which issues are most important to you, and hold you nose about the stuff you don't agree with. Who knows it it makes much of a difference, but it certainly doesn't feel good when both candidates hold positions you don't agree with on issues important to you.
It will make a difference for Young voters. How many Young voters upset over Gaza (and not just middle class educated Arab & Muslim Americans) will hold thier nose and vote Biden, or just stay home? Meanwhile, a new generation of young, "red pilled" socially conservative (both White and Minorities) cohorts plan to vote against him.
So do the candidates.... If they want party money and backing, they must ally themselves. Now it's even more divided in that there are factions on a spectrum, instead of left and right, further dividing people and politics. If only we had options of people and multiple platforms. Those in real control of the country are the RNC AND DNC.
There are hundreds of parties in America.
Like Janus, the two headed god, our political system will never be overcome from within. Power corrupts. Most who seek power ought rightly be barred therefrom. Voting for the lesser of two evils is still voting for evil. It’s past time we adopt a system in which evil is not an option on the ballot.
This system has been hijacked by vested interests.
"The end of democracy and the defeat of the American Revolution will occur when government falls into the hands of lending institutions and moneyed incorporations." ~ Thomas Jefferson
@@warfarenotwarfair5655Please, there's only 2 serious ones.
'Did you know you can eat a pine tree? Many parts are edible'
On point as always.
I'd like to know what Peter predicted for the 2016 election
th-cam.com/video/MIdUSqsz0Io/w-d-xo.html
He was wrong, he predicted stability if you put any monkey in power.
He got the war on Ukraine right.
Donald J. Trump just won the 2024 Election.==> th-cam.com/video/v2SGEY5dm-E/w-d-xo.html
Well, he’s a huge supporter of the global system as it was back then. He certainly wouldn’t have voted for a populist no matter what side of the aisle they were on.
Predicted, not voted for.
a Hilary win.
So when he wins what will you say Peter?
He'll give the reason why 😅
Peter looking like an NPC from Skyrim here lol.. all kidding aside, this man IMO is the most trusted source for geopolitical information.
Don't expect this prediction to age well
They never do. It doesn’t help that outside of demographics and geography. Peter thinks he understands things he clearly does not US politics would be in that category. Here’s a suggestion for Peter, but I don’t think he will take stop getting your politics from ideologues of the left and right Ideology blinds people
@@seaneustace9838 The price of food and gasoline is a better indicator.
The Margin of Fraud versus the Margin of Apathy- 2024. "May you live in interesting times", said the Sage.
Loved how he explained Obama’s victory
That’s why I’ve said Obama and Trump ran extremely similar elections. Used sexy phrases that meant nothing and everyone got to define for themselves what those terms meant.
Yes We Can what
Again the superficial. The Iraq war was very unpopular, and the Republicans ran a war monger in the person of John McCain, and and Romney, who is with men capital a quintessential American chop shop that buys in debt and extract money from companies, leaving them in horrible positions and making it so they’re employees will never make any money as a company is indebted in order to pay gigantic profits to the chop shop owner, which sells off all the companies, good assets and ruins the company. Americans understood exactly what Ron they was. They understood exactly what John McCain was. Obama had no competition at all, and Bush was hated. See how that’s a little less superficial than what he said. Obama also ran on getting us out of Afghanistan, but never did.
@@karlkobler218 Except Trump actually brought Americans being held hostage home, got the open border under control, masterminded the peace accords in the Middle East, stood up to China, didn't get us in any wars, held the European "allies" accountable, and put dictators from Turkey, to N. Korea, to Russia on notice. The dictators knew this man was not to be trifled with.
Obama? Got us into multiple wars and let China walk in America and didn't give a rip that our borders were being overrun. Obama also spent 8 years blaming White Americans for everything while his "problematic" mother raised him as his communist black African father abandoned the family.
@@Muzakman37 Vegetables.
Geopolitics is your strength and respected you for it
Let's see how this one ages 😅
I’m actually surprised that your analysis didn’t focus on the demographics. You rightly point out that the baby boomers are retiring. Older voters typically become more conservative. Major part of the reason Florida has shifted red in a big way.
Most of my young friends have moved to Florida or Texas
Yet Republicans are running _against_ Social Security, go figure.
Nope, older voters have never become more conservative. The young voters are just always more progressive than the old generation, because the world keeps moving forward.
People in the 19th century didn't start becoming racists overnight as they got older, they were that way their whole life and then got old and died.
@@naitruan true enough, but they are more conservative relative to society as whole, even if in fact they are staying the same, which comes to the same thing.
@@glenrotchin5523 No, there's a significant difference.
The person who grows old as a conservative has been voting conservative all their life. When they grow old, this does not increase the number of conservative votes. And then they die, and their generation ends, and the people who thought like them are no longer around.
While on the flipside, the young generation is always more progressive as they old generation, and they only seem to be more conservative as they grow older because the next young generation is even more progressive.
That's why things have been shifting more and more progressive over time. End to slavery, woman's rights, rights for minorities, acceptance of gay and trans people. Every generation is more progressive than the one preceeding it.
I wish I liked the outdoors as much as Peter does.
I saw beautiful snow and I clicked.
Hi Peter. Just wanted to say we are on different sides of the isle but i watch all your vids and respect your sound wisdom. I pray you have a wonderful year. God bless. Thank u
It would be a better world if people didn't believe there was an "aisle" to be on "the other side of". That's the division that the political elites (of the major parties) in this country are trying to create, in order to allow our fabricated divisions to keep them in power. Don't let them!
me too
Spot on. Thanks for your work.
I'm an Australian so I don't know anything about anything, but in my experience (in a country where voting is mandatory) people don't vote for the candidate or party they like, they vote for the opposite of the candidate or party they hate the most, and as decisive as Trump is, there's also this feeling of broadly simmering resentment for the apparent new world order that came about sometime around COVID, and I foresee that simmer turning to a boil as the economic situation adds heat.
What economic situation??
GDP growth was 4.9% in the third quarter. Inflation was 3.1 percent through the end of November but for the month of November itself it was 0 1%. Unemployment for the third quarter was 3.9%
@@vanindallas I'm sure reciting statistics from the BLS will appease those voters. The inflation stat shell game is legendary. GDP is similarly meaningless. You can pay workers to dig and fill ditches to increase GDP.
@@vanindallas government "data" is about as factual as our "news." (1) GDP includes government spending, as a metric of economic health it is of not much use. (2) The government's official inflation rate is (and has long been) about 1/2 the actual rate. They do this to minimize fixed outlays such as social security and veterans benefits, etc. (3) Employment data is outrageously misleading ... just as anyone in finance.
Yeah Peter Zeihan is looking at the macro too much here from a liberal perspective. Hating the libs is bigger on the right than dislike of disagreement, or dislike of a criminal. Trump is going to win this fairly easily. 28% Biden approval being ignored. Israel fallout being ignored, fair likely to be a regional war with Iran at the time of the election or at least the results of his policy in Palestine will be evident for a decade. The cost of living still being ignored, or at least the perception of it. Biden's age or competence in debate being ignored. Populism on the right is ascendent and welcomed, populism on the left is vilified and hated deflating the vote - The dems have shaved a lot of their voters away, and the hollow sounds this time around of vote blue no matter who sound absurd when America is almost a fascist dictatorship - Go see the themes of fascism on wikipedia and see how many it ticks. - Then know that the dems are trying to fix the primaries by removing all other candidates and mainstream media is desperate to pretend they don't exist. America is a complete farce.
Sure Trump is a criminal and that will turn off some independent voters, but the dems are doing the most they possibly can to deflate their own vote and remove independent support as well. Its a boomer race to the bottom, from a narcissistic generation that never could give up an inch of control to their children.
You should literally be questioning the legitimacy of the government that dared to throw you into camps during Covid and those citizens who allowed it.
Substance aside, that's one hell of a collar.
This is one Zeihan article that seems especially off-the-rails. Still love 'im though. Always great food for thought.
Let's see Brad let's see crossing my fingers and hope he's right nonetheless 🤞🏼❤️🇺🇸
You missed the urban/secular-rural/Christian split.
I think that is implied from the business voter/ religious zealot split caused by the fall of Roe.
@@keystonekabes As an atheist, dems should've simply followed the science, When Europe is more restrictive than the U.S. was....
@@gups4963 what does that have to do with the split in the GOP?
Rural areas have always been more conservative. Christian Nationalism stems from rural evangelicals. Trump is their savior and the GOP is their sword. Traditional republicans (RINOLS) are now powerless.
that is not a thing.
The main issue I see for Trump is the same issue I saw for Hillary...it is hard to overcome the otherside coming out to vote against you. It is hard enough to get people to come out and vote for you but when the otherside hates you so much they will come out to to vote against you for spite that is hard to overcome.
Problem is Trump is gaining voters who were known to be dem controlled.
The spitevote is underrated. It also explains why so many politicans are such goofy people without any bite or bark, because they are not hated as much.
That's because people They were emotional now with Biden economic and social catastrophic people start using logic
They want someone is strong bad boy type
Exactly. The problem is most of them aren't even sure why they hate him. In this country we have too many uneducated voters & too many people who vote with their emotions rather than common sense!
It's sad but true. I was not a Trump fan at all. Never liked him for 40 years. But there was no way I was going to vote for Hillary.
Zeihan in a Snowstorm = EPIC
Very interesting and useful analysis. Thank-you. There are reasons, and a history, behind our current political and social malaise
The issue is that it isn't the total number of voters who determine the presidency; it's the electoral college. Once again, there are maybe four states that will matter in this election and anything can happen when you're talking about a razor's edge difference.
Probably more, but you are correct. Biden will easily win popular vote. It's irrelevant. Swing states; Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia will decide the election. Most states are guaranteed to go one way or the other.
The best system they ever invented. All one has to do is look how the big cities in California and New York, determine what all the rural must do, with out of touch policies. We understand it, as a hedge against too much power concentrated. No tyranny of the majority.
@@aBRUSHforCONFUCIUS So you're saying you prefer a tyranny of the minority? (Because that's the general effect of giving the votes of some people 3 to 5 times as much weight as the votes of others.)
@@RD-jc2eu Who wants to enforce things on other people? Oh it's city folk. But please tell me more about how rural folk are tyrants for pushing back on city people running everything.
@@aBRUSHforCONFUCIUShmm, the problem is…out of touch for who? As Peter just pointed out, Americans are not a monolith. If urbanites make policy, it’s out of touch for rural voters. If rural people make policy, guess what it’s out of touch for urban voters. Pretending like one faction has ‘the answer’ is silly, no matter which side you support.
Dude is standing in the middle of a blizzard commenting the US elections 😂
Peter? Where did he go? What’s that pile of snow?
Peter's huffing and puffing is contributing to Global Warming.
Peter is a smart feller but when he stirs the Trump shit pile... Well then he's a fart smeller
My man is auditioning for the next Game of Thrones reboot
Wow, very insightful. Thank you
Peter Zeihan is one of the best geopolitical analysts out there at the moment, not quite as great when it comes to domestic politics though.
the TDS is strong in this one.
I think he probably knows better, but he also knows who pays him.
To be honest he's absolutely right, but he says the truth and idiots like to believe politics is their Identity for some stupid reason so they don't want to hear the things that don't make them happy.
@@peetky8645His analysis isn’t wrong though. Very few see the fault lines on the Republican side but they’re there. A lot of conservatives are pissed at Trump and he isn’t even trying to mend anything.
Or unlike most Muricans, he can think objectively, which pisses off every other Yank.
I think Peter's analysis assumes that Trump gets his support from only traditional Republican factions. But this isn't the case. Trump has measurable support from two of the three traditionally democratic factions - minorities and labor. Things are still very much up in the air, in my opinion.
Agreed. I think Peter is letting his biases dictate his reasoning. I say this as a Democrat who once voted for Biden.
Yeah he sounds 10 years out of date with his perspective on voting blocks. There have been massive shifts since Obama.
The problem is that his votes among minorities are hardly decisive. They're not going to tip the balance in his favor.
Yeah NGL Peter sounds like he's a DeSantis voter in here. LOL. I don't even like Trump, but he's clearly carved the largest voting block of white blue collar workers away from democrats, yes, they'll still get the money from the union heads donating in blocks to Democrats, but their votes clearly went to Trump since 2016. Trump won more votes than Obama in 2020, as well as a higher % of the black and latino vote than any republican in history, and that's while being sandbagged by Covid and being bogged down by scandals during his presidency. Now he's going to come in with people remembering the good 'ol days of cheaper gas and a functional economy, whether he contributed to it or not, the memory is still there.
And for all of the scandals and chaos in his first run, he still would've won 2020 were it not for a global pandemic in Covid and some strange voting patterns created by mail in votes.
I agree, it's interesting to see dems partially laying claim to the foreign policy & business legs of the traditional republican "three-legged stool", while Trump lays claim to some of labor & Latinos. Whether this realignment sticks around depends, imo, on how strong the isolationist/protectionist vein in the republican party remains after Trump leaves the scene due to (probably) old age.
Love your stuff Peter, just a heads up about Tommy Turberville
Say it like tubberville not tuberville. Although he'd probably hate being called tuberville so proceed however lol
Very interesting. I hope you're right. ❤
Almost six minutes of how Republicans can never have cohesion under Trump. Then this at the end, "Even if they pass the cohesion test..." Don't you just love it when Peter hedges?
He’s a tool. The only way Trump loses is if they ban him off the ballot (rioting and possible civil war), and if they rig the election (rioting and civil war).
Being AGAINST the Republican party helped him in 2016 and it will only help him now. He had the likes of the Bush and Cheney clans (clans Peter is a fan of because they make war and war makes money) but the fact Bushes and Cheneys despised him only makes him a hero to Republican voters.
It’s not a hedge, it’s a hypothetical.
Not to mention that he has been predicting the collapse of China in the next decade since 2010.
Peter will slowly fade away as Trump becomes president for a 2nd term and China dos Not collapse. What will he tell us then?
Trump 2016 and Brexit prove there were many people perfectly happy to vote for F-You as a protest against, well everything. If anything public discourse has become much worse in the subsequent years. And yelling f-you at everything has become almost normalised. So sure Trump can win in 2024.
Nah
Except in 2016, the majority said f-you through Trump, the new candidate. And now, having actually lived with him for four years, many want to say f-you *at* Trump.
@@guydreamr Those people are the ones who voted agaisnt him in 2016 so nothing has really changed
@@theliato3809 Actually, plenty *has* really changed, namely that Trump is no longer the change candidate that many swing voters went for in 2016. Now, at least some of those voters have reviewed his record and have decided they don't like what they see. Therefore, Trump is going to have a harder row to hoe this go-round. Not impossible mind you, but harder.
@@guydreamr We went from Trump to Biden and suddenly realized how far of a drop in quality we got in our leadership.
There is a very high cost to voting Democrat. Biden was their best and brightest. That says a lot.
That's assuming that the current president has complete democratic support. And that's obviously not true.
Thank you! I can't wait for the next video Peter! That's me, Independent. There are a lot of us these days, and we are quite sick of the establishment shitting on the common folk and flat out ignoring glaring issues in favor of their own (often stupid or greedy) agendas... :-)
"Independant" is just another name for an embarrassed Democrat.
@@jlf9999 Says the sheep to the wolf...
@@jlf9999 Embarrassing is the news agency of their favorite political party losing a legal case for lies in the sum of nearly half a BILLION dollars. lmao. Proof they are liars if there EVER was any. Embarrassing is their leader a "Yankee" fooling EVERYONE in the deep south... Embarrassing is their political demagogue in court endlessly for fraud and sexual misconduct. And loosing those cases over and over... I stand on a fence in politics. And I watch BOTH sides critical. But there has only been ONE party that has been acting like absolute crazy people that have missed their meds. ONE party is tearing itself apart. And as an "independent" that SUCKS because a 1 party system would SUCK worse than the crap show the Red keeps showing itself to be. You bat for the wrong team. You are NOT a billionaire. Why you bat for them, I will never know...
bot
Wolfy, you gotta a man bun too?
I think you grossly underestimate how quadrupling the price of food can effect an election.
quadrupling the price of food?? It's always been expensive here but it's not even been 1.5x. where you getting 4x??
tRumps supporting clown. Food has NOT gone up 4 fold. But hey LYING and BREATHING are the same thing for you people.
@@kneesnap1041I live in a Philly suburb. We shop at Wegmans and Traders Joe, both are considered “expensive” compared to other chains. Price on food is barely up milk, cereal, eggs, sugar, etc. We can talk about rising rent, but to say “food price is quadrupled” is complete bonkers. What? A gallon of milk is $20????? $10? No, it’s still around $5-6. Sugar? Coffee? Meat? All my quality steaks cuts are still around $15-20 just like 5 years ago.
@@kneesnap1041 Large cities, Atlanta and NYC, have reported some weird spikes over last year. Fresh produce a prime example
@@kneesnap1041 oh he's lying because he has Trump Derangement Syndrome Syndrome.
Whenever anyone says anything bad about the cult leader he'll just chant the mantra "TDS, TDS" or "whatabout Hillary" (or probably Biden now)
Anyone who says they support Trump after he tried to steal the election is truly deranged.
Sadly thats about 50% of voters
Thanks Peter. Appreciate your thoughts on these things.
Yup, i agree more of the same high food prices,high gas prices more inflation. Gotta love it
Dude, do you want me to setup a kickstarter to buy you a shack with an office so you can get out of the snow ?
🤣🤣🤣
I guess it depends on who counts the votes
I didn’t think Trump could win. Then he did.
I didn’t think Trump could lose.
Then he did.
I’ve learned my lesson in this “guessing game of who wins”
You need to look into the vote-counting shenanigans in the 2020 election. Not the bulls**t about shootouts in Frankfurt, but the fact that mail-in votes came in from empty lots, and other such instances.
"Well, 'A' happened, but not in enough numbers to affect the outcome of the election." " Well, 'B' happened, but not in enough numbers to affect the outcome of the election." "Well, 'C' happened, but not in enough numbers to affect the outcome of the election."
But some of us can add A + B + C...
Maybe you were actually right the 2nd time. With 47 million mail-in ballots, pretty easy to win from your basement.
My logic states that Trump has alienated more of his supporters than in 2016. If the Dems continue to run Biden, who is less threatening then some young radical progressive, more of us from the GOP will vote for Biden, who is safe.
If Trump couldn't win, Dems would not be trying to keep him off the ballot soviet-style.
A view from Oz. Firstly, I am not anti-American. I served with GIs in Vietnam, honeymooned in the USA where a GI mate gave us his apartment and car for the week we were there, and I have friends from SFO to Miami. I sense that PZ's view is being influenced by personality. "Trumps arrogance etc" It's my experience that when assessing a leader, you switch off the personality traits and apply "did he do more good than harm?" It's my strong belief that yes, he did. Be it immigration, international geopolitical policy, trade policy and his publicising of "fake news" and the "DC Swamp". Having said that, he did suffer from inexperience when choosing his team.
Oz just so happens to be one of the few countries that Trump actually admires hahahaha
Thanks!
"...DT can never win..."
Heard that before lol
TDS alive and well
Just remember just about everyone said he also had no chance to win in 2016
... and he didn't win last time either.
Trump lost the last time.
Except that now we know exactly who we're dealing with, having lived with him for four years.
that has nothing to do with 2024. and he lost in 2020. it would be hard for him to win this time. could be done, but not likely.
@@Michael-le5ph How many people regret voting for Biden in 2020?
About 1 in 6 of his supporters said they regretted it, as soon as the Hunter Biden laptop came out.
Serious inflation, based to a great extent on our s**cidal energy policies, the war on automobiles (which wrecks workers' productivity and even labor market participation), the fact that Democrats are pursuing strategies 100% opposed to young people owning houses and starting families -- all of these are anchors around Biden's neck.
i really hope vivek 2024. Forget trump.
I feel like I can enter that weird after party full of stoned friends and be a god of the politics with this new data. Thank you good sir.
Absolutely. With no one sober enough to know the difference, even Joe Biden seems smart.
This was a really useful exposition on one way to view the election, thanks!
On a related note, I'm listening to the Audible version of Peter's book The End of the World Is Just the Beginning and enjoying it a lot. Peter provides his own narration so it's a very familiar experience for someone who follows him on TH-cam.
Peter's books are great & his geopolitical analyses are brilliant and absolutely worth listening to. I'd caution that his regular political analyses (like this one) are sorely lacking and failing to update with key recent data points (for example, the mass exodus of voters from the Democrat Party and registration as R's).
@@matthewobrien5925 Peter did a video where he talked about tech and AI and it was clear that he isn’t as well informed or well thought out on that topic. So, yeah.
He left out McCain's fatal mistake, Palin. As a Democrat that was seriously considering voting before McCain's pick for VP, which was the tipping point. Selecting the stupidest woman politician I had ever seen, (this was before Marjorie Taylo-Greene who taken stupid politician to heretofore not seen dizzying heights), I could bring myself to vote for a two time cancer survivor. The Palin factor should not be overlooked nor minimized.
@@haroldobrien4322 As a reward for your insights/contribution (in case you've not come across this) here is some comic relief that may also help to inform who may be the "stupidest" between, say, MTG and Boebert ...or ? www.youtube.com/@scaredketchup/videos
Thanks for the tip! I love audio books read by the author so I’ll look at Peter’s.
I'm sure u said the same about 2016.
I've always wondered what the chances are not of a third party so much as a _replacement_ of one of the two parties (like what happened to the Whig Party in America's past).
I'd like a replacement for both of them, neither feel like a home for me.
I agree with this analysis
A future of increasingly factional warfare doesn't end well IMO.
I think you missed a key issue which is illegal immigration which is a big concern for the majority of majority of Americans and could be the single issue that gets Trump elected.
True if everyone was anti immigration but we are split between anti immigration people and those that want immigrants treated better and a systemic change. Those people would never vote for Trump.
BS
I dont know any one even remotely concerned with illegal immigrants.
Most of my neighbors here in Dallas happily pay these so-called "illegals" to watch their kids , sell them their fruits & veggies, and do their landscaping.
Have you visited any housing building sites lately?
Please do so and tell me th language and nationality of 80% of those workers building those new homes ?
Literally could not be further from the truth, nobody fucking cares about illegal immigration unless they watched Fox News.
Trump will win again by protest vote. It will not be a vote for Trump. It will be a vote against the Democrats. I think Peter, among many other “thought leaders“ drastically underestimate the utter disdain people have for the Biden administration. They will either vote for Trump, vote for one of the many third-party candidates if they are truly disgusted with both major parties, or completely sit out. The coalition that carried Biden’s half dead corpse over the finish line in 2020 has fractured. You can blame Biden’s actions on Gaza for the straw that broke the camels back
It's not a big concern for the majority of Americans, though.
The hat in the last vid was brilliant, the snowy wonderland setting in this vid is supremely divine. Liked even before first word spake. 🤩☃❄🎄
The Cat in the Hat. “I know it is wet and the sun is not sunny, but we can have lots of good fun, that is funny.”
First time....Ever listening to Peter, so I don't know just what to think. Seems... I will need more 'ed u k shin.'
I believe Zeihan is missing one huge factor. The Economy. Anyone below Middle Middle class is suffering. To quote a carville, "it's the economy, stupid". The majority in this country, below that line, are feeling the pain, Regardless of party line.
I’m in NY. You wouldn’t believe how many people in their 20s are telling me they’re secretly voting for Trump this year.
that‘s very secretly…
PZ works for the deep state, & must say these things. 😅
That is good news.
That’s fantastic news
It’s called common sense.
No chance? He got 64 million votes the first time, almost 75 million the second time, and is now in front in every poll. No chance? This is not serious commentary.
Yeah, this is weird.
Plus more Hispanics voted for Trump the second time lol
So, when polling gave the odds of winning to Shrillary in 2016, they were BS, but now you use them to make Trump a shoe-in? This is not a serious (or useful) comment.
My Texas conservative family voted Republican their entire adult lives, and now either refuse to vote or plan to pinch their nose and vote for Biden. If my traditional Southern mom is so vexed by Trump, I'd be worried that this anecdote isn't so unique.
Don't forget the fraud machine. Expect Zuckerberg, et al to donate 100's of millions of dark money to "Fortify the election".
*"All abortion is homicide." -- Judge Andrew Napolitano*
"Homicide" is defined a human killed by another human, which is certainly what abortion is.
"Murder" is a legal term that means a homicide that is unjustified.
Aborting a pregnancy that endangers the life (not lifestyle) of the mother is justifiable homicide; most abortions are not justified and therefore are murder.
Love this podcast..... GO BLUE!
Trump didn't introduce any of this. It's all on the surface, and he tapped into it.
Total agreement.
As I see it, for the last few decades, the Dems have been leaning into centrist policies, picking up new support there. The Republicans, OTOH, went in the opposite direction, to the extreme right - the paranoids and xenophobes, the Religious Reich, etc.. The Mango Mussolini didn't start the crazy, it was already there and he basically just lit the fuse.
@@7thsealord888 Do you actually think the Democrats moved to the center?
Yeah, the Democrats are a center-right party to begin with. There is a leftist minority within it, they get almost all the media attention. Just like the far-out MAGAs in their Uncle Sam costumes get lots of media attention. The media loves to pit extreme characters against each other, it's dramatic.
In reality, the GOP is still the big-business, low-taxes- for-millionaires party and the Democrats are still the elite/ union/ minorities coalition, as well as being pro-big-business.
@@ryankuypers1819I do
@@ryankuypers1819 strange how they started demonizing the USA, white people, straight people, people who are successful, and Christians as they went center. LOL. Dems have been embracing marxism and the hard left more and more since 2008. They should have went the opposite way, but the first black president was mostly hype and little performance so doubled down on the "America is racist" trope AFTER being elected. Dems are a mixed bag, but there are far more fanatics within the dems than there are within the republicans.
Most of Peter's statements feel like CNN talking point rather than decent arguments
Agreed. Everything he says makes me think he’s involved with the intelligence community.
He's at his best when he has actual data to back him up. This is not one of those times.
@@pathkeepers Peter is in the Strategy community, which is intelligence-adjacent. And especially now that he's got influence, they're clearly feeding him information they want to get out there.
It's still fascinating to listen to him on these subjects, for insight into the ruling classes' assumptions and preferences.
Lol please can't you tell all this guy does is repeat CNN talking point he is con artists lol so obvious
@@jimluebke3869 good point - he is a window into the soul of the deep state.
Very interesting. Thank you
This is the same guy that said not only would Ukraine repel the Russian invasion, but that they would mount a counteroffensive into Russia proper. Take that under advisement when you listen to him.
Peter’s comment about Hillary and Dukakis being good candidates makes me question his judgment lol.
He worked at the NYT which is always wrong and on the wrong side of history.
He must be mad, I wont be tuning in to his nonsense again.
He didn't say they were good candidates, he said they ran on specific policy issues, which is why they didn't do as well as someone like Obama, who gave rousing speeches but left his policy positions more vague.
Qualified. Competent... e forgot corrupt and evil.
That’s not what he said though. He said they were candidates that were “a little bit brainy” and addressed specific policy issues which that led to an intra-party split.
I swear, as soon as a topic turns to domestic politics there is an entire subset of people ready to be upset or offended. And if there isn’t something there to be upset about, folks like you will just make it up.
Looking forward to Peter’s first vid after the next election.
Completely off on COVID-19 and many other topics so I take everything he says with a grain of salt. All I know is Biden is by far one of the worst presidents, and while I have no love for Trump, he still would be a better choice. If the US votes Biden in for another 4 years we have reached the point of no return IMO.
While politics is geopolitics personified, the ice is thin. I AM NOT a Trump fan. However, business thrived with him in office. How do I KNOW? I own 70-year-old family business. You can see the ups and downs match exactly to who is in office. So, I like Trump’s policies. Don’t sell his chances short. The ice may crack under your feet.
I never even thought to ask that simple dual question: How many registered Republicans are there in the US or abroad right now? How many registered Democrats are there in the US or abroad right now?
There's at least 5m Americans living abroad, likely leaning Democrat as being a social conservative isn't exactly conducive to the mental tolerance and flexibility required to be a voluntary emigrant. Republicans overseas would be concentrated among the 1m military servicemembers who enjoy the insulation of a base compound and expenses-paid travels.
I happen to be both a veteran and an expat, and this is what I've noticed. The main hurdle after actually deciding to vote (itself a problem among all Americans) seems to be the submission of ballots since there's not always an embassy or consulate nearby to drop it off at, and the "home" state may not be so accommodating to those voting outside of a physical queue of your "correct" district with the "right" form of ID in hand.
Peter, I sure hope you’re right as a baby boomer and retired for a few years but still in my low 60s he would be disastrous for anybody collecting Social Security and if you remember what he did, he defunded it in his time in office Also, I’m getting sick and tired of these Republican jack off, saying Social Security is an entitlement. If that’s the case, give me every damn penny I paid into it with interest and I’ll go it alone but to say it’s an entitlement is a slap to every working Americans face.
Christ - the boomer evolution from pull your straps up to living off the dole is pathetic
You need to move to australia everyone gets a pension and free health care providing you meet the money test
It’s not just Republicans both of the parties keep playing people on Social Security just like when Reagan and the Democratic Congress pulled that bullshit in the 1980s. There is absolutely no reason to lift age limits to make payments. All you have to do is stop giving money out to people that didn’t pay into it Stop letting the treasury take money out of it and make sure anything not covered with the money that was put into it, which was more than enough to cover. It comes out of the general fund. It is that simple force them to do it and they will do it.
@@paulmatich8985 “government monopoly healthcare”. You say that like it’s a good thing ……
@@estonianman we trust our govt all my cancer treatment emergency surgery basically all for free if on social security one of the best health care systems in the world yes please