Thats awesome you have used this to create your own process, thats the start of you really finding an edge long term. One piece of advice if I may. Remember the goal should always be to create numbers that closely reflect the actual outcome of games, rather than the oddsmakers numbers. If you make a team -3 and the oddsmakers have that team -3 you dont show an edge but if you make a team -3 and the oddsmakers make that team -1 and the team wins by 4pts you have something there
Question do you always subtract offense from defense or little number from bigger number cause i did Eagles and there offense number was higher than there defense number and it came out negative?? im using my phones calculator all i need to know is what number to put in first thanks
@Morgan Terribly sorry for the delayed response, I knew I rushed this video and didn't make things as clear as I hoped but I should've explained that we always want to subtract the offensive number from the defensive number. So in the examples I used in the above video the offensive YPPT numbers were lower than both defensive numbers given both teams a positive power rating number, the Eagles who you mentioned had a higher OFF YPPT number than their DEF YPPT number would give them a negative number which is correct but most important you still just want to combine the two teams numbers and factor in any other variables you see fit (especially home field advantage) to find your final power rating number for the game. OFFENSIVE YPPT NUMBER - DEFENSIVE YPPT NUMBER Happy Hunting, Back with NEW videos Soooon!!!
Just for fun I did the YPP exercise for this weekends Raider/Patriots. I only used stats from weeks 1-5. I ended up with Raiders -13.5 which is nowhere close to the actual spread. I double checked my math so there’s no errors. Do you have any insight on what I can add to get a more accurate line? Thanks!
The Patriots numbers are definitely an outlier so far this year. But also, keep in mind, the goal isn’t to have your number align exactly with the sports books, because in doing that your numbers would never have an edge. I guess betting the Raiders -3 has a big edge if you make them -13.5? Because the Patriots have gotten off to a historically bad start this season I would say to to maybe expand the sample size of 5 games and add priors from the previous season. For what it’s worth, I like the Patriots this week at +3 on a buy low low low basement clearance sale low spot
@@BettingNetwork Hi there, I had a ton of fun handicapping the games yesterday! Even though, most of my picks lost haha I went on a rule of betting games where I “found” 3.5 points of value or greater. I’d like to add another metric or two beside YPP to thicken my numbers up. Any metrics you recommend? Thanks!
@@michaelmellinger1844 Hey Michael, thats awesome to hear (about you making your own ratings, not the losing) I got killed yesterday, coincidence? probably not. I have a list of what I believe to be the best metrics in the NFL posted inside the discord community I run, I define each metric and what they measure and where you can find the numbers, I think youd benefit from joining, theres a free membership and a paid membership. I could send you the list inside the discord but if you dont want to to, the two best all encompassing metrics are DVOA -Defensive Value Over Adjusted and EPA - Expected Points Added. Both are a % based metric. Hope this helps, if you decide to join the discord make sure to reach out once in there and Ill show you around, lotta helpfull features and tools. Lefty
Good info, I had a quick question tho. when comparing the two teams YPPT numbers is it always Home team - Away team for YPPT or is it flipped. thanks in advance
Hey @Mason, good question and I definitely should've explained that in the video. We always want to subtract the offensive number from the defensive number. So in the examples I used in the video the offensive YPPT numbers were lower than both defensive numbers given both teams a positive power rating number. But it’s always 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼 OFFENSIVE YPPT NUMBER - DEFENSIVE YPPT NUMBER Stay tuned for more videos coming, good luck!
Thank you for sharing. I’m starting doing your ypp one. I added turnover diff divided by 2 to each teams rating is that ok to get a line or are turnovers already figured in to ypp. Also wondering how to figure a good over/under bet?
Dan! Sorry for the late reply but you are on it, adding turnover diff is a great addition. YPPT is a very inclusive metric but turnover diff and really any other metric can only help strengthen your ratings. I have a video I’m working on (along with many others) that will discuss how to create your own lines including over/Unders, it’s not really part off the beginner level stuff and those videos are always a challenge but if you are interested in learning more Definitely check out the Betting Network discord community, we have a ton of lessons and information in there, plus you can discuss strategies and gather information from other bettors as well. discord.gg/93yrHmNqcU
No because the bigger the Defensive YPPT number the better because its more yards an opposing offense must go to score 1 point. The smaller the offensive number the better, less yards to travel to score 1pt
Hey my man, glad you found this video helpful. Our TH-cam channel has a bunch of videos just like this but we also have an educational sports betting video course with all types of video lessons to help sports bettors learn more. The video course is a feature that is available to members of our discord community, if you are interested in joining you can do so with the sign up link in the description of the video above. We have all types of helpful tools and information in the discord, if you have any questions just let me know and I’d be happy to help. -Lefty
Hey Hunter, sorry for the delayed response, not sure how I missed your comment. To answer your question I would need you to be a little more specific so I can understand exactly what you mean by accuracy. Are you asking what my NFL record was this past season? Or are you asking me how accurate the power ratings are to the point spread? Hope to hear back from you so I can answer your question, thanks!
Thank you my man! That support means the world. What other types of videos would you like to see that would help? Hoping to help other sports bettors like you every day
Re your point about it not being an advanced rating system… everyone’s going to need to develop their own rating system and they’ll learn that the real trick is factoring in multiple different stats or numbers and weighing some more than others… that’s when it really becomes a model. But this is perfect for teaching the CONCEPT of power ratings and modeling
Exactly, if everyone just did the YPPT and only the YPPT everyone would have the same numbers. I love that there is no right or wrong, the more you think outside the box the more likely you might stumble upon a good model/system
If it was easy everyone would model sports and make money, Its definitely a difficult topic to explain, I think if you really pay attention and listen youll get it, Its the easiest way to create your own spreads, there's a ton of very difficult ways. Any questions hmu
How to Interpret & Analyze Power Ratings - th-cam.com/video/cUnZVEAbxJ8/w-d-xo.html
I added this to the information Billy Walters has in his book and my ratings are spot on. The falcons losing to the Seahawks by 20 at home killed me.
Thats awesome you have used this to create your own process, thats the start of you really finding an edge long term.
One piece of advice if I may. Remember the goal should always be to create numbers that closely reflect the actual outcome of games, rather than the oddsmakers numbers. If you make a team -3 and the oddsmakers have that team -3 you dont show an edge but if you make a team -3 and the oddsmakers make that team -1 and the team wins by 4pts you have something there
One of the single most important skills to handicapping the NFL
Spread the word about Lefty, he wants us all to be sharps. He knows his shit!!!!! Smash the like button and get this guy more views
Question do you always subtract offense from defense or little number from bigger number cause i did Eagles and there offense number was higher than there defense number and it came out negative?? im using my phones calculator all i need to know is what number to put in first thanks
We just not going to answer the lady? Lol
@Morgan Terribly sorry for the delayed response, I knew I rushed this video and didn't make things as clear as I hoped but I should've explained that we always want to subtract the offensive number from the defensive number.
So in the examples I used in the above video the offensive YPPT numbers were lower than both defensive numbers given both teams a positive power rating number, the Eagles who you mentioned had a higher OFF YPPT number than their DEF YPPT number would give them a negative number which is correct but most important you still just want to combine the two teams numbers and factor in any other variables you see fit (especially home field advantage) to find your final power rating number for the game.
OFFENSIVE YPPT NUMBER - DEFENSIVE YPPT NUMBER
Happy Hunting, Back with NEW videos Soooon!!!
Just for fun I did the YPP exercise for this weekends Raider/Patriots. I only used stats from weeks 1-5. I ended up with Raiders -13.5 which is nowhere close to the actual spread. I double checked my math so there’s no errors. Do you have any insight on what I can add to get a more accurate line? Thanks!
The Patriots numbers are definitely an outlier so far this year. But also, keep in mind, the goal isn’t to have your number align exactly with the sports books, because in doing that your numbers would never have an edge. I guess betting the Raiders -3 has a big edge if you make them -13.5?
Because the Patriots have gotten off to a historically bad start this season I would say to to maybe expand the sample size of 5 games and add priors from the previous season.
For what it’s worth, I like the Patriots this week at +3 on a buy low low low basement clearance sale low spot
@@BettingNetwork Hi there, I had a ton of fun handicapping the games yesterday! Even though, most of my picks lost haha I went on a rule of betting games where I “found” 3.5 points of value or greater.
I’d like to add another metric or two beside YPP to thicken my numbers up. Any metrics you recommend? Thanks!
@@michaelmellinger1844 Hey Michael, thats awesome to hear (about you making your own ratings, not the losing) I got killed yesterday, coincidence? probably not.
I have a list of what I believe to be the best metrics in the NFL posted inside the discord community I run, I define each metric and what they measure and where you can find the numbers, I think youd benefit from joining, theres a free membership and a paid membership. I could send you the list inside the discord but if you dont want to to, the two best all encompassing metrics are DVOA -Defensive Value Over Adjusted and EPA - Expected Points Added. Both are a % based metric.
Hope this helps, if you decide to join the discord make sure to reach out once in there and Ill show you around, lotta helpfull features and tools.
Lefty
Good info, I had a quick question tho. when comparing the two teams YPPT numbers is it always Home team - Away team for YPPT or is it flipped. thanks in advance
Hey @Mason, good question and I definitely should've explained that in the video. We always want to subtract the offensive number from the defensive number.
So in the examples I used in the video the offensive YPPT numbers were lower than both defensive numbers given both teams a positive power rating number. But it’s always 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼
OFFENSIVE YPPT NUMBER - DEFENSIVE YPPT NUMBER
Stay tuned for more videos coming, good luck!
Thank you for sharing. I’m starting doing your ypp one. I added turnover diff divided by 2 to each teams rating is that ok to get a line or are turnovers already figured in to ypp. Also wondering how to figure a good over/under bet?
Dan! Sorry for the late reply but you are on it, adding turnover diff is a great addition. YPPT is a very inclusive metric but turnover diff and really any other metric can only help strengthen your ratings.
I have a video I’m working on (along with many others) that will discuss how to create your own lines including over/Unders, it’s not really part off the beginner level stuff and those videos are always a challenge but if you are interested in learning more Definitely check out the Betting Network discord community, we have a ton of lessons and information in there, plus you can discuss strategies and gather information from other bettors as well.
discord.gg/93yrHmNqcU
Why divided by 2?
13-14.8 would be a negative number no?
No because the bigger the Defensive YPPT number the better because its more yards an opposing offense must go to score 1 point. The smaller the offensive number the better, less yards to travel to score 1pt
I'm new to this. Love your video would like to learn more...
Hey my man, glad you found this video helpful. Our TH-cam channel has a bunch of videos just like this but we also have an educational sports betting video course with all types of video lessons to help sports bettors learn more.
The video course is a feature that is available to members of our discord community, if you are interested in joining you can do so with the sign up link in the description of the video above. We have all types of helpful tools and information in the discord, if you have any questions just let me know and I’d be happy to help.
-Lefty
What has your accuracy been with this system?
Hey Hunter, sorry for the delayed response, not sure how I missed your comment.
To answer your question I would need you to be a little more specific so I can understand exactly what you mean by accuracy. Are you asking what my NFL record was this past season? Or are you asking me how accurate the power ratings are to the point spread?
Hope to hear back from you so I can answer your question, thanks!
Both would be nice to know
Good shit
Thank you my man! That support means the world. What other types of videos would you like to see that would help? Hoping to help other sports bettors like you every day
thx!
Re your point about it not being an advanced rating system… everyone’s going to need to develop their own rating system and they’ll learn that the real trick is factoring in multiple different stats or numbers and weighing some more than others… that’s when it really becomes a model. But this is perfect for teaching the CONCEPT of power ratings and modeling
Exactly, if everyone just did the YPPT and only the YPPT everyone would have the same numbers.
I love that there is no right or wrong, the more you think outside the box the more likely you might stumble upon a good model/system
And if it was that easy then the books would do it too
This video got more and more confusing the longer it went lol
If it was easy everyone would model sports and make money, Its definitely a difficult topic to explain, I think if you really pay attention and listen youll get it, Its the easiest way to create your own spreads, there's a ton of very difficult ways.
Any questions hmu