I'm completely capable of having a conversation about Russian sub capability and keeping that separate from the political and military situation in Eastern Europe, as I imagine most of your audience is. Thanks for the video.
When russian Subs starting kaliber Missiles on Ukrainian territory, they are part of the attacing force and the war! And dont forget, they mostly built these ships to destroy our western citys and countrys with nukes. They support putin, they are accountable
well said,as a former submariner I've always had a great respect for the Russian submariners. But thanks to recent events I've had people commenting stuff like how about them Russians now and feel that is a huge mistake especially considering what I know and it's nice to see the facts in a clear and concise manner..... once again you have nailed it and thanks for doing what you do. There's only so much I can say without getting closer than I like to classified materials. Being able to direct people to your site and now videos makes educating people so much easier and I wanted to say thanks
Russia hugely benefits from upholding the mythos of their forces of all kinds. It's not like anyone plans to attack Russia with strategic weapons so their submarine force shouldn't be a part of the current tactical equation.
@@N1njaSnake I agree that Russia benefits from keeping up a facade but out of all their services the sub fleet has one of the lowest turnovers of them all and is one of the few that value experience. Even their pilots tend to leave for the private sector.
"During times of war, truth is the first casualty." As said by some one much smarter than myself. Thank you for keeping this video as fact based as possible. It's a very interesting topic, and I think has more bearing on the future of warfare than the current land war. Sadly it's becoming ever more difficult to find objectively researched presentations over feelings, hopes, wishes and outright propaganda.
I'm amazed by Americans' reactions to this conflict. So many channels putting out unverified information, only to take it down a week later. You'd think they'd been invaded rather than Ukraine, from the amount of zealot screeching over here.
@@SwitchTF2 indeed the bbc news is full of "ive been told ________ happened here not so long ago". no independant eye witness accounts. no evidence of _______. the most eye opening thing of all is - just what else have we had the same spin treatment applied to in the uk?
@@mrrolandlawrence Man you must live under a rock in Faslane. Don't you remember Alistair Campbell and the Blair years? "Dodgy dossier" and Baghdad ring any bells? American spin is nothing compared to the media work by Brown or Blair governments. I don't agree with you that the BBC lies, but to be swept away in anger by dead civilians is willful stupidity.
The AUKUS agreement will see Australia receive the technology to develop/build nuclear powered subs. The view, at least here in Australia, is that we'll base a design on a US frame, but it's my view that the Astute class would be a better fit for our navy. I'd be fascinated on your views on the topic.
I think we will be getting the Astute class as Britain is nearly finished building theirs and ours can roll over into production. Our sailors can rotate through American and British nuke subs for experience, they certainly will not be building them in South Australia after the Collins mess.
@@bestestusername oh dear haha. Listen mate. The rest of the Astute Class are behind and won't be finished for nearly 10 years. Then the facility will be building the Dreadnought Class which are also behind and are a priority then when they are finished we start building the Astute replacement for the next 20 years. Naye luck. Ps the US are in the same position. Go design and build your own and find the 170 billion to do so.
mate don’t trust the liberals the subs we were supposed to get from france were converted from nuclear designs it would have cost much less and subs would of been delivered alot quicker than the AUKUS subs if we just converted them back to nuclear besides australia will never have the industry to build our own if the liberals keep selling land and major companies away if you want a safer world for yourself and your kids you’d vote labor
I've been watching your videos for quite a while now and I think I just gotta say thank you for this great and interesting content! I enjoyed every single one of your chats and it's been giving me a very good insight into a topic that I used to have little to no knowledge about. So thank you for that, I hope you have a nice day :)
The modernized Oscar is supposed to carry quite the load, as well as the modernized Kirov after refit. Guess that's a positive of such huge platforms is the sheer amount if tubes and VLS cells.
Excellent job covering a lot of material! Thank you and keep up the good work. I was a sonar tech aboard the USS Kinkaid (DD-965) from 1985-1989 out of San Diego and like to keep up on info.
@@HISuttonCovertShores I have to Salute You Sir! USA 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 and so much more than expected… con so NaR … systems are incredible History USA 🇺🇸 and UK 🇬🇧 sailing ⛵️ wHere …. Incredible History up Periscope! Found the Red October and The Red November and oh my goodness it’s Huge wHat is it…. Ping Pong 🏓 ball ⚽️ and what is that… oh no so know Boy Howdy 🤠 Buckarooos and clues 🕵️♂️
Find out about so much more than anything about wHo… dives in to… systems and design theory and more… engineering and computer 💻 science 🧬 and math 🧮 and physics… how do we learn…
For the Kilo class AIP problem the Export variant “Amur“ class deals with this which means that it is most certain that Russia has an upgrade package for them already otherwise they won’t be exporting it. Great video that’s a sub for you. Looking forward to your channel and keep up the work.
Thank you again for your wonderful videos. You are truly a wonderful source of information. In the last few years, I have become more interested in subs and the history of them. Being from the eastern part of North Carolina in the US, I have always enjoyed the history of this area. I remember when the Hunley was found and eventually raised. Having traveled extensively up and down the East coast, I have gone past the exits for Groton Ct and Savannah Ga sub bases. I’m thankful for finding Sub Brief and eventually, your channel. Lots of great info from you both. It’s nice to know what the “other team” is bringing to the fight. One of my fathers good friends was on attack boats in the 70’s when the “Cold war” was in full swing.
I love your videos and analysis. You mentioned something to the effect of being careful about totally believing mainstream media (sorry that is my paraphrase of my memory). What site or you tube channel do you recommend for a more truthful account of the ongoing war to this curious Texan?
Try twitter Naval aspects (mine) twitter.com/CovertShores OSINT gathering twitter.com/RALee85 Losses counting and monitoring twitter.com/oryxspioenkop More monitoring and counting twitter.com/UAWeapons Quality observations on land warfare twitter.com/WarintheFuture Many other accounts too, but those are the obvious one for this war
Nice video as usual. Oh.. Do you have a plan to make a video talking about submarine weapon, like maybe russian/us torpedo, their guided misille, or other system?
Possibly, it's the road ahead. Although that too requires development and integration. There have been reports of RuN trying Li tech batteries but not in this application yet
Thanks for this installment. I especially liked the opening touching on the mistake of viewing the events in Ukraine as a sign of overall Russian capabilities.
One thing every engineer needs to reconcile themselves with is that what they do will inevitably be used in war. I'm glad your channel and the comments here all approach that in a mature way.
The thing I like about this is it almost seems like a military briefing. No nonsense, no “like and subscribe”, no woke opinions, just information. Please do not modify this format.
Awesome video, as always. Looking at your roadmap regarding future Russian submarine procurement. Do you think this will suffer with current sanctions, or do you see them collaborating more with China? Building and maintaining a massive conventional and nuclear fleet is expensive. I am not sure if the have the budget to build what they estimate.
russian exports are not effected at all at least not important ones. if anything they have even more money. as for technology they are developing their own since 2014 when first sanctions hit. actually cheap chinese submarines will effect more negative on russia. russia did export tons of kilo class but if countries will buy chinese submarines russia surely will suffer there. also india wants to build their own submarines... so yes russia is loosing market but not due to current situation
The 2020s and 2030s are shaping up to be "interesting times" where the norm could well be nations spending more on defense, so even though there is more competition the pie could be getting a lot bigger.
@@ivancho5854 I recall reading things about the "four turnings" and the whole different generations cause, inherit, cause, etc., certain things. Stats, historical precedents, etc., etc.. and a lot of them stated that due to these factors that the 202s would be the beginning of some very hard and/or chaotic times. Due to timing and a culmination of the aforementioned factors. I think the most succinct gist is the "four turnings". Make pf it what you will, but from the reading I had done--this was from 2015-2019--and yeah, again, they all had come to conclusion that of the 2020s being turbulent which would go on to really shape the 2030s and by the 2050s being what would shape the new millennium in the 2100s. Which sounds about right coming from the 1950s,1850, etc., etc.. And the 2020s started with quiet the bang.
It is interesting to contrast Russian approaches to noise supression with US. Historically, Russia exploited their double hull design approach to install noise supression mechanical devices and treatments in the flooded void between the pressure hull and outer hull. This was true up until 1990 - not sure if still true. US on the other hand developed coatings for their pressure hulls that were elastomeric material with entrained air bubbles. The problem with the US approach was that as you go deep the micro bubbles compress which has the effect of making the submarine heavier. This imposed real operational limits on how thick coatings can be applied.
@@HISuttonCovertShores if fact soviets used anaechoic coating already in the late 60s on the Victors and Charlies. No idea why the US only started applying them on 688s in the 80s
Informative and insightful as always, thank you! Considering your future predictions: what has the impact of previous sanction been on the submarine fleet and what do you think will current/future sanctions mean, eg in terms of availability of critical materials etc
My understanding is that zircon is not a hypersonic in the same sense that western missiles are currently being developed. I am almost certain that saying that russia is ahead of the west in this department is misleading as to be a false claim.
I would challenge your assertion that Russia places greater emphasis on special operation submarines than US. The reason US capabilities appear less is that the programs and technologies are very highly classified even within the Navy itself. Even the budgets are Top Secret compartmentalized info. Very few people know both the technical and operational compartments at the same time.
Based on your Russian funding conclusions, I would like to see detailed financial analysis of Russian Submarine construction and maintenance. This analysis should include paying of sailors. Given data we now have I wonder. Russia has had notable failures in nuclear propulsion that contaminated a Russian village. What water testing has been done? So far their hypersonics, including Zircon, are “converted” conventional missiles. These are designs or actual hardware. The development of small crew “baby submarines” to be launched clandestinely should be a US and British consideration. If nothing more than rescue capability.
One small point, russia is not fighting ukraine...it is fighting ukraine packed with £130 billion of nato weapons. Most medium sized militaries wouldve collapsed in a week.
In your videos, could you differentiate what you mean by "West"? It would be interesting to know whether you are talking about German, Swedish, US, French, or whatever submarines rather than lumping them together as "West", because I would think there are vast differences in the modernity of navies.
Well you summarized the west right there. That is in fact what he is referring to, if he wanted to be more specific he would have listed a country specifically. Using the west as a conglomerate is logical as the west acts in alliance via nato and the standards range of all of nato is highly relevant to russian naval strategy as nato is a unified alliance. Because there is also a great deal of variety in a country year to year, between two classes of boat, and the difference even in crew. So in short: he was speaking generally because that was what was relevant. Speaking more specifically is for other topics and can quickly trail into silence as osint runs dry
good job Mr. Sutton I like your videos and website as it is the best open source of info on sub development I can find on the internet. no political agenda or dramatic stuff that tries to illicit some emotional response or get you to convert to their side. I also think it's OK speculate (with a margin of error) in mind new sub numbers as old ones will eventually have to be replaced anyway. Cost is a big issue of course but also the stability of a nation's economy overall.
Poseidon is an economy measure. If you need to respond to a CSG moving into a theater of interest and you lack access or numbers to penetrate their SSN screens and possibly (now, certainly, future) satellite tracking of thermal wakes, you can instead send in these from a mothership some considerable distance outside the COEA (Atlantic on a Mediterranean target set) without exposing your primary system investment and while still having the performance and quieting needed to get inside on a much smaller, deeper diving and ultimately, _faster_ system. I doubt very much if 'tactical' variants are nuclear armed (though warhead sections may be variable) but I would bet that they use an RTG or similar to follow underwater terrain in deep-silent cruise. Assuming they have decent INS systems and the Russians have done good bottom mapping, they can self-nav to get close and then make final run-ins like an Alpha class, at 2,000ft and 40-60 knots. We may be able to hear them coming but I doubt if we can stop them. If they _are_ equipped with say a 100KT warhead, that's enough to blow both surface combatants from well down and more particularly, to attack submarine telecomms cables. Cross Roads was only 23KT and, while shallow, managed to do this- en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Crossroads#/media/File:Operation_Crossroads_Baker_(wide).jpg This is Wig Wam which detonated at 2,000ft, also with 30KT- en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wigwam#/media/File:Wigwam.jpg You don't have to form a strategic radiological menace to civilian targets (i.e. one which is both blatant and traceable to specific IAEA reactor cores in terms of trace elements) via port or offloading station attack, you can use these systems as explicit and exclusive naval and data infrastructure attack weapons. In the latter role, depending on how deep the weapons can go, there doesn't even have to be a visible surface surge to their use. Let's be generous and say that they cost 50 million each. And need 2 million in repairs between cruises. For the equivalent of 3 billion dollars (one, low end, SSN) and 2.4 billion for 20 cruises worth of maintenance; you are talking about the ability to deploy 60 hulls at roughly 11 times less cost than a believable class number (20) of Virginia equivalents. That's 60,800,000,000 vs, 5,400,000,000 dollars. Yes, they are mission restrictive. Yes, they are NOT true attack submarines. But in terms of value for utility, they represent not just cost savings but an immeasurable political leverage. Because there might come a day, when Russia's economically weak back was against a wall, with the entire known world levelling sanctions against the country. And having the sub-strategic option to hostage global currency trades, the petroleum lading points and even global navies might be seen as a survivable escalation before MAD. Say what you will about the Russian's morals. But they are not stupid people. And their leaders in particular, are far more skilled as strategists than ours. We don't know what exactly is going on in Ukraine. The media is completely propagandized. We don't know why it is happening, presupposing Putin is either a mafia thug or mad is ridiculous. What we can and must do is determine the believable geopolitical pathways from this event as though it was an intentional act with further, subsequent, iterations intended or likely to derive from it's opening.
I’m surprised there hasn’t been more development of torpedo mines. It would be lovely to just gently eject torpedos that can fire themselves. That sounds like a real problem for US carrier groups
The Yasen is a Flight 3 Los Angeles Class. It is not too far fetched to do the same with a Virginia and add an extra mid section for VLT. The problem with the Russian Navy is budget. They do not maintain their fleets and their designs are rushed into service.
Also, "more stealthy" for russia really isnt saying much. Seen too many comments from submariners that tracked them talking about how they could tell who it was just by how loud they are. One comment said, "sounded like they had a chain wrapped around their prop shaft." Also russia definitely isn't ahead of the US in terms of hypersonic missile technology. Cats kinda outa the bag now that they've been used and countered in Ukraine.
Have you done a video on the two Ubatsbas, Russian Submarines in the White Sea, docked in the port of Severodvinsk, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Russia? Or do you know of any info on them, (class, capabilities etc...)? 🤔
Great video. Thank you for making it. The part which I found most interesting was the age of the Russian submariners. Russia, like many other countries is heading for a demographic cliff. That, coupled with poor universal education and a lot of younger people now leaving Russia may mean that the submarine force may face considerable manpower problem in the near future. All the best.
@@HISuttonCovertShores Yes, it's a fascinating topic. If you would like more information, Peter Zeihan, a Geopolitical Analyst, talks extensively about how demographics shape countries. Though be aware that his primary audience is the US Government and military, hence his forecasting is probably slightly skewed. George Friedman is also very good and I feel that his analysis is more balanced. Russia's demographic problems are very severe, though China's are much worse. Then there's the issue of corruption in those two countries militaries. Incredibly, China has Billionaire generals.
Well, they're going to need a lot of high-tech components to keep to their timetable. I'm not so sure they'll have an easy time getting those. Hopefully, sanctions will give them enough of a pause that we can be sure to head them off technologically. We'll see!
I call it Cold War 2. But now it's different: Russia's economy is more sound than the USA's unless you think that huge amounts of government, state, local, corporate, and individual debt are irrelevant in the USA. Round 2: unless you think the huge MONETARY inflation, trade and budget deficits in the USA are irrelevant. Follow Peter Schiff to learn that what I state is true.
i am confused, the UK spends more on defense then russia. has a smaller army a smaller air force and a smaller navy. and so my question is how can russia have such a larger armed forces and be of high quality as well? the most advanced technology companies in the world are western
You have to understand that the vast majority of information that OSI uses is based on Russian propaganda. Russian maintenance is notoriously bad and corruption runs rampant.
Given the amount of nuclear accidents and sunk nuclear subs during peacetime accidents I never held them in as high regard. I believe they can do damage but never on par with the West. Their units do look good on paper.
There's also a tradition of overestimating russian capabilities in the west. That's not to say we should continue to err on the prudent side of things, but still systems like Armata, SU-57, TOS, etc. have turned out to not be as much of a threat as some Russo-Boos would have liked.
Could long range autonomous underwater vehicles make submarines obsolete? They can sit anywhere for an extended period, such as offshore from an enemy submarine base, then tail enemy submarines for the duration of ther mission. They could carry interceptor missiles to take out ICBMs in their launch phase.
They won't be obsolete but missions are becoming more dependent on UUVs. The US Navy has made a major investment in this technology particularly in cooperative operations between subs and UUVs. Modern subs have large diameter ocean interface (a great big double hatch) to launch and retrieve UUVs. The major technical challenges with UUVs are navigation (no GPS underwater) and sufficient high density energy storage. Both the Office of Naval Research (ONR) and the aquisition command (NAVSEA) have major ongoing UUV programs.
Очень интересно смотреть аналитику запада про вмс рф. Могу предположить что демографический кризис приведёт к беспилотным системам, беспилотные танки уже есть, беспилотные самолёты есть, подводные лодки нового поколения будут с малочисленными экипажами и высокой степенью роботизированными система управления. Война двигатель прогресс...к сожалению.
@1:40 Sutton states that the Russian submarine force isn't the air force or army, and is better funded and more capable. But I wonder if some of the reliability and maintenance issues apparent with the army and the performance of the air force might be replicated to some extent even in the Russian submarine forces? The Kursk disaster and (lack of) recovery effort, the noisiness of many Russian submarine models (that start out quiet when brand new but get very noisy over time, apparently due to poor maintenance or lack of parts replacements), and the inability to maintain Admiral Kuznetsov (or to avoid a major fire during refit) all suggest that the Russian navy (and submarine fleet) might actually share some of the issues the Russian Army and Air Force have exhibited recently?
Basically the subs have always been the elite of the soviet/russian navy and that is far more true now than before. The navy has a few large trophy ships for propoganda (CV BCGN CG ) and smaller modern ships they can build. The sub force is real strength with modern SS SSN and SSBN. The russians realise with NATO air dominance subs are the only viable option to contest the seas.
A possible takeaway from the recent war is, that Russia is capable of developing advanced prototypes, but not able to put them into series production/adoption. Building prototypes is completely different from series production, but the shipbuilding industry is significantly closer to "artisan" production than to mass production. That is probably why they can't produce more than a dozen modern aircraft or tanks per year, but are capable of producing a respectable amount of top of the line subs. There might be a problem with weapons production though, while the Kalibr did really well, a lot of tanks are seen stocked with old munitions and a limited stock of new/smart weapons also means a lack of training options.
People getting butthurt about yet another war. When they probably haven't given a rats ass about most wars, ever. Probably couldn't find Donbas on a map prior lmao.
Great overview . I used to be very interested but lost track with the end of the Cold War . This is a very informative update on capabilities . Hopefully one of the few good things to come out of the Ukraine War is that the West recognises The Russian threat and develops ways to deal with Hypersonic missiles and Poseidon .
We have over-estimated Russian numbers and capabilities forever. And I'm sure we are doing it now with their subs. We keep assuming their advertised capabilities are valid, and that they can field the full quantities they advertise. I'll accept that the sub service is better run and funded than other Russian armed services, but I won't give it the full credit others do. Can they launch nukes? Sure, and that's why we assume they're capable and act accordingly, but I'd give them 50% credit for SUSTAINED operations. They can deploy, bit it's real thin.
The Russians have also got the new Moskva Class Submarine, Apparently Putin sent the Moskva out on a ‘Special Operation’ to test it’s diving capabilities, they could confirm that it’s diving capabilities actually work, but when it came to resurfacing it, they then found out that they forgot to add the ballast tanks to their Flagship, L🤣L👍🏼
I think deployed ones (2000 ish) are well maintained. Most of the perception on Russia being a military equivalent of NATO was actually a public perception left from the cold war. Russian propaganda never claimed such a thing. Russia has always been aware of NATO's size compared to Russia (~1.5x landmass, ~8x population, ~25x economic size). They know they can't equal an entity with 25 times more resources. But nuclear weapons are very cheap for their firepower. You can spend a few dozen billions annually and can amass a large enough nuclear arsenal to kill billions. For this reason nuclear has been the pillar of their military. This way Russia ensures NATO will never use its power against Russia. The submarine building got its share from that too for the obvious reason. Russian nuclear arsenal, submarines and bombers should be evaluated differently from the rest of the Russian military. They are disproportionately high funded compared to the rest.
![[UNCUT] “อภิสิทธิ์” ครม.อุ๊งอิ๊ง แย่งเก้าอี้กันฝุ่นตลบ “ทักษิณ” บงการเอง Iคนดังนั่งเคลียร์I 21ส.ค.67](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/a_b-kItw2jY/mqdefault.jpg)
I'm completely capable of having a conversation about Russian sub capability and keeping that separate from the political and military situation in Eastern Europe, as I imagine most of your audience is. Thanks for the video.
Yeah its called Ukraine
When russian Subs starting kaliber Missiles on Ukrainian territory, they are part of the attacing force and the war! And dont forget, they mostly built these ships to destroy our western citys and countrys with nukes. They support putin, they are accountable
@peterboyles7089 that place doesn't exist
@@redriddler1231 found the bot
@@redriddler1231it doesnt? whos pushing russias shit in? the invisible man?
well said,as a former submariner I've always had a great respect for the Russian submariners. But thanks to recent events I've had people commenting stuff like how about them Russians now and feel that is a huge mistake especially considering what I know and it's nice to see the facts in a clear and concise manner..... once again you have nailed it and thanks for doing what you do. There's only so much I can say without getting closer than I like to classified materials. Being able to direct people to your site and now videos makes educating people so much easier and I wanted to say thanks
Thank you, glad it is all worth while
Russia hugely benefits from upholding the mythos of their forces of all kinds.
It's not like anyone plans to attack Russia with strategic weapons so their submarine force shouldn't be a part of the current tactical equation.
@@N1njaSnake I agree that Russia benefits from keeping up a facade but out of all their services the sub fleet has one of the lowest turnovers of them all and is one of the few that value experience. Even their pilots tend to leave for the private sector.
@@HISuttonCovertShores
Very interesting as always.
Quick question, could the Astute-class have been designed with a VLS?
"During times of war, truth is the first casualty." As said by some one much smarter than myself.
Thank you for keeping this video as fact based as possible. It's a very interesting topic, and I think has more bearing on the future of warfare than the current land war.
Sadly it's becoming ever more difficult to find objectively researched presentations over feelings, hopes, wishes and outright propaganda.
I'm amazed by Americans' reactions to this conflict. So many channels putting out unverified information, only to take it down a week later. You'd think they'd been invaded rather than Ukraine, from the amount of zealot screeching over here.
@@SwitchTF2 indeed the bbc news is full of "ive been told ________ happened here not so long ago". no independant eye witness accounts. no evidence of _______. the most eye opening thing of all is - just what else have we had the same spin treatment applied to in the uk?
@@mrrolandlawrence Man you must live under a rock in Faslane. Don't you remember Alistair Campbell and the Blair years? "Dodgy dossier" and Baghdad ring any bells?
American spin is nothing compared to the media work by Brown or Blair governments. I don't agree with you that the BBC lies, but to be swept away in anger by dead civilians is willful stupidity.
@@SwitchTF2 Well, good sir, that's because they once already were invaded by russians. Heard about state of Georgia?
@@TocTeplv Is this a joke? I get it but I'm not sure why you bothered.
As usual, most interesting and nice to hear someone that makes a difference between facts, rumours and "what is imagined".
The AUKUS agreement will see Australia receive the technology to develop/build nuclear powered subs. The view, at least here in Australia, is that we'll base a design on a US frame, but it's my view that the Astute class would be a better fit for our navy. I'd be fascinated on your views on the topic.
mate, beleive you mean the Astute class SSN....the vanguard is a SSBN
I think we will be getting the Astute class as Britain is nearly finished building theirs and ours can roll over into production. Our sailors can rotate through American and British nuke subs for experience, they certainly will not be building them in South Australia after the Collins mess.
@@bestestusername oh dear haha. Listen mate. The rest of the Astute Class are behind and won't be finished for nearly 10 years. Then the facility will be building the Dreadnought Class which are also behind and are a priority then when they are finished we start building the Astute replacement for the next 20 years. Naye luck. Ps the US are in the same position. Go design and build your own and find the 170 billion to do so.
@@Hierachy You're absolutely right. Thanks for the correction.
mate don’t trust the liberals the subs we were supposed to get from france were converted from nuclear designs it would have cost much less and subs would of been delivered alot quicker than the AUKUS subs if we just converted them back to nuclear besides australia will never have the industry to build our own if the liberals keep selling land and major companies away
if you want a safer world for yourself and your kids you’d vote labor
I've been watching your videos for quite a while now and I think I just gotta say thank you for this great and interesting content! I enjoyed every single one of your chats and it's been giving me a very good insight into a topic that I used to have little to no knowledge about. So thank you for that, I hope you have a nice day :)
I appreciate that! Thanks
@@HISuttonCovertShores You go out of your way to provide excuses for the Russians.
2:10 ‘It’s up there’ I agree thanks for research!! 😃😃
Just discovered this channel and oh boy. Let the binge begin!
The modernized Oscar is supposed to carry quite the load, as well as the modernized Kirov after refit. Guess that's a positive of such huge platforms is the sheer amount if tubes and VLS cells.
If they ever actually get refit.
@@imjashingyou3461 they are getting refit
@@imjashingyou3461 The Irkutsk Oscar-II and Peter the Great Kirov have already completed their refit
Excellent job covering a lot of material! Thank you and keep up the good work. I was a sonar tech aboard the USS Kinkaid (DD-965) from 1985-1989 out of San Diego and like to keep up on info.
Cool, thanks!
@@HISuttonCovertShores I have to Salute You Sir! USA 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 and so much more than expected… con so NaR … systems are incredible History USA 🇺🇸 and UK 🇬🇧 sailing ⛵️ wHere …. Incredible History up Periscope! Found the Red October and The Red November and oh my goodness it’s Huge wHat is it…. Ping Pong 🏓 ball ⚽️ and what is that… oh no so know Boy Howdy 🤠 Buckarooos and clues 🕵️♂️
Find out about so much more than anything about wHo… dives in to… systems and design theory and more… engineering and computer 💻 science 🧬 and math 🧮 and physics… how do we learn…
Soccer ⚽️ and 🥅 goal 🥅 Lee and Dragnet and sea 🌊 sweep 🧹
Hear what… a pin 🧷 drop and where is it… a hat 👒 pin 🧷
For the Kilo class AIP problem the Export variant “Amur“ class deals with this which means that it is most certain that Russia has an upgrade package for them already otherwise they won’t be exporting it. Great video that’s a sub for you. Looking forward to your channel and keep up the work.
Very interesting analysis. This is one of a very small number of channels that you can rely on for accurate, non biased information. Thank you.
Always great to see another sensible video.
I LOVE these presentations. Have been binging all of your videos this week. Excellent information.
Outstanding analysis as usual, thank you! 👌 Maybe topic for a future video: the future of some navies.
excellent video as always. pretty much the gold standard on open source intelligence!
Thank you again for your wonderful videos. You are truly a wonderful source of information. In the last few years, I have become more interested in subs and the history of them. Being from the eastern part of North Carolina in the US, I have always enjoyed the history of this area. I remember when the Hunley was found and eventually raised. Having traveled extensively up and down the East coast, I have gone past the exits for Groton Ct and Savannah Ga sub bases. I’m thankful for finding Sub Brief and eventually, your channel. Lots of great info from you both. It’s nice to know what the “other team” is bringing to the fight. One of my fathers good friends was on attack boats in the 70’s when the “Cold war” was in full swing.
Fantastic start to a Friday thank you
Wonderful channel, we are so spoilt to have ready access to your incredible knowledge. You and Sub Brief are my favorites!
I love your videos and analysis. You mentioned something to the effect of being careful about totally believing mainstream media (sorry that is my paraphrase of my memory). What site or you tube channel do you recommend for a more truthful account of the ongoing war to this curious Texan?
Try twitter
Naval aspects (mine) twitter.com/CovertShores
OSINT gathering twitter.com/RALee85
Losses counting and monitoring twitter.com/oryxspioenkop
More monitoring and counting twitter.com/UAWeapons
Quality observations on land warfare twitter.com/WarintheFuture
Many other accounts too, but those are the obvious one for this war
Nice video as usual. Oh.. Do you have a plan to make a video talking about submarine weapon, like maybe russian/us torpedo, their guided misille, or other system?
I just make the occasional video when the opportunity is there.
Heck yes I want to watch.
with new batteries (china was showing of sodium based one) i wonder if AIP is even needed.
Possibly, it's the road ahead. Although that too requires development and integration. There have been reports of RuN trying Li tech batteries but not in this application yet
good video, look forward to a video on seabed operations
It is so nice and refreshing to have this amazing content without getting into politics! Thank you!
Thanks for this installment. I especially liked the opening touching on the mistake of viewing the events in Ukraine as a sign of overall Russian capabilities.
One thing every engineer needs to reconcile themselves with is that what they do will inevitably be used in war. I'm glad your channel and the comments here all approach that in a mature way.
The thing I like about this is it almost seems like a military briefing. No nonsense, no “like and subscribe”, no woke opinions, just information. Please do not modify this format.
Great overview ! Thanks for putting the time and energy into this
Awesome video, as always. Looking at your roadmap regarding future Russian submarine procurement. Do you think this will suffer with current sanctions, or do you see them collaborating more with China? Building and maintaining a massive conventional and nuclear fleet is expensive. I am not sure if the have the budget to build what they estimate.
russian exports are not effected at all at least not important ones. if anything they have even more money. as for technology they are developing their own since 2014 when first sanctions hit.
actually cheap chinese submarines will effect more negative on russia. russia did export tons of kilo class but if countries will buy chinese submarines russia surely will suffer there. also india wants to build their own submarines... so yes russia is loosing market but not due to current situation
The 2020s and 2030s are shaping up to be "interesting times" where the norm could well be nations spending more on defense, so even though there is more competition the pie could be getting a lot bigger.
Well, how is the Ruble doing?
@@ivancho5854 I recall reading things about the "four turnings" and the whole different generations cause, inherit, cause, etc., certain things. Stats, historical precedents, etc., etc.. and a lot of them stated that due to these factors that the 202s would be the beginning of some very hard and/or chaotic times. Due to timing and a culmination of the aforementioned factors. I think the most succinct gist is the "four turnings". Make pf it what you will, but from the reading I had done--this was from 2015-2019--and yeah, again, they all had come to conclusion that of the 2020s being turbulent which would go on to really shape the 2030s and by the 2050s being what would shape the new millennium in the 2100s. Which sounds about right coming from the 1950s,1850, etc., etc..
And the 2020s started with quiet the bang.
Over 60 years of sanctions never deterred North Korea from producing hypersonic nuke missiles,
@perun sent me here. Good work, excellent dissection.
I was sent by Dom Nichols of the Telegraph.
It is interesting to contrast Russian approaches to noise supression with US. Historically, Russia exploited their double hull design approach to install noise supression mechanical devices and treatments in the flooded void between the pressure hull and outer hull. This was true up until 1990 - not sure if still true. US on the other hand developed coatings for their pressure hulls that were elastomeric material with entrained air bubbles. The problem with the US approach was that as you go deep the micro bubbles compress which has the effect of making the submarine heavier. This imposed real operational limits on how thick coatings can be applied.
Thx
Russia and of course UK also have anechoic tiles/coatings. the Russian one is quite sophisticated I hear
Can you explain how a bubble getting pressurized gains mass?
@@HISuttonCovertShores if fact soviets used anaechoic coating already in the late 60s on the Victors and Charlies. No idea why the US only started applying them on 688s in the 80s
Informative and insightful as always, thank you!
Considering your future predictions: what has the impact of previous sanction been on the submarine fleet and what do you think will current/future sanctions mean, eg in terms of availability of critical materials etc
@HISuttonCovertShores >>> *Great video...👍*
FIRST CLASS PRESENTATION, (even if unscripted), and very informative. Thank you.
My understanding is that zircon is not a hypersonic in the same sense that western missiles are currently being developed.
I am almost certain that saying that russia is ahead of the west in this department is misleading as to be a false claim.
Clear & concise mind ! thanks
I like that you don't blow smoke up our butts and stick to known facts.
I'm interested in the differences in the sails, e.g. narrow, tall for US, wide, longer for Russian. Any clue why that is?
Russia puts escape lifeboats in the base of the sails
Great information, as always!
Very informative and enjoyable thank you
You must talk about the ALVARO ALBERTO the SSGN for Brazilian Navy
It may take years or decades to find out what happened in this conflict. We must keep an open mind.
Very true but some things are apparent from the very start.
Thank you.
I would challenge your assertion that Russia places greater emphasis on special operation submarines than US. The reason US capabilities appear less is that the programs and technologies are very highly classified even within the Navy itself. Even the budgets are Top Secret compartmentalized info. Very few people know both the technical and operational compartments at the same time.
Your facts and cold analysis are a pleasant change from the usual youtube schoolboy military experts . Thanks...
Fantastic, another great video
another great video, bravo
Based on your Russian funding conclusions, I would like to see detailed financial analysis of Russian Submarine construction and maintenance. This analysis should include paying of sailors. Given data we now have I wonder.
Russia has had notable failures in nuclear propulsion that contaminated a Russian village. What water testing has been done? So far their hypersonics, including Zircon, are “converted” conventional missiles. These are designs or actual hardware.
The development of small crew “baby submarines” to be launched clandestinely should be a US and British consideration. If nothing more than rescue capability.
Typo alert. I think you meant to write "competent and well equipped adversARY".
One small point, russia is not fighting ukraine...it is fighting ukraine packed with £130 billion of nato weapons. Most medium sized militaries wouldve collapsed in a week.
A cutaway of the upcoming Columbia class submarine please 🙏
Well. I wish u will give more videos. Its a moving pictures. not like giving powerpoints slides as lecturer in a university
In your videos, could you differentiate what you mean by "West"? It would be interesting to know whether you are talking about German, Swedish, US, French, or whatever submarines rather than lumping them together as "West", because I would think there are vast differences in the modernity of navies.
Well you summarized the west right there. That is in fact what he is referring to, if he wanted to be more specific he would have listed a country specifically.
Using the west as a conglomerate is logical as the west acts in alliance via nato and the standards range of all of nato is highly relevant to russian naval strategy as nato is a unified alliance.
Because there is also a great deal of variety in a country year to year, between two classes of boat, and the difference even in crew.
So in short: he was speaking generally because that was what was relevant. Speaking more specifically is for other topics and can quickly trail into silence as osint runs dry
good job Mr. Sutton I like your videos and website as it is the best open source of info on sub development I can find on the internet. no political agenda or dramatic stuff that tries to illicit some emotional response or get you to convert to their side. I also think it's OK speculate (with a margin of error) in mind new sub numbers as old ones will eventually have to be replaced anyway. Cost is a big issue of course but also the stability of a nation's economy overall.
I think you give them far too much credit.
I thought he kept saying solar arrays haha. That’s a good idea they should make a solar powered sub probably no downsides to that whatsoever.
I got my eyes on the modernization of the Oscar IIs with the 24 p-700s replaced with...72 P-800s or whatever newer piece of ship killing kit.
Have they built the tug-sub to tow it around yet?
Poseidon is an economy measure.
If you need to respond to a CSG moving into a theater of interest and you lack access or numbers to penetrate their SSN screens and possibly (now, certainly, future) satellite tracking of thermal wakes, you can instead send in these from a mothership some considerable distance outside the COEA (Atlantic on a Mediterranean target set) without exposing your primary system investment and while still having the performance and quieting needed to get inside on a much smaller, deeper diving and ultimately, _faster_ system.
I doubt very much if 'tactical' variants are nuclear armed (though warhead sections may be variable) but I would bet that they use an RTG or similar to follow underwater terrain in deep-silent cruise. Assuming they have decent INS systems and the Russians have done good bottom mapping, they can self-nav to get close and then make final run-ins like an Alpha class, at 2,000ft and 40-60 knots.
We may be able to hear them coming but I doubt if we can stop them.
If they _are_ equipped with say a 100KT warhead, that's enough to blow both surface combatants from well down and more particularly, to attack submarine telecomms cables.
Cross Roads was only 23KT and, while shallow, managed to do this-
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Crossroads#/media/File:Operation_Crossroads_Baker_(wide).jpg
This is Wig Wam which detonated at 2,000ft, also with 30KT-
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wigwam#/media/File:Wigwam.jpg
You don't have to form a strategic radiological menace to civilian targets (i.e. one which is both blatant and traceable to specific IAEA reactor cores in terms of trace elements) via port or offloading station attack, you can use these systems as explicit and exclusive naval and data infrastructure attack weapons. In the latter role, depending on how deep the weapons can go, there doesn't even have to be a visible surface surge to their use.
Let's be generous and say that they cost 50 million each. And need 2 million in repairs between cruises. For the equivalent of 3 billion dollars (one, low end, SSN) and 2.4 billion for 20 cruises worth of maintenance; you are talking about the ability to deploy 60 hulls at roughly 11 times less cost than a believable class number (20) of Virginia equivalents. That's 60,800,000,000 vs, 5,400,000,000 dollars.
Yes, they are mission restrictive. Yes, they are NOT true attack submarines. But in terms of value for utility, they represent not just cost savings but an immeasurable political leverage. Because there might come a day, when Russia's economically weak back was against a wall, with the entire known world levelling sanctions against the country. And having the sub-strategic option to hostage global currency trades, the petroleum lading points and even global navies might be seen as a survivable escalation before MAD.
Say what you will about the Russian's morals. But they are not stupid people. And their leaders in particular, are far more skilled as strategists than ours. We don't know what exactly is going on in Ukraine. The media is completely propagandized. We don't know why it is happening, presupposing Putin is either a mafia thug or mad is ridiculous. What we can and must do is determine the believable geopolitical pathways from this event as though it was an intentional act with further, subsequent, iterations intended or likely to derive from it's opening.
Hey man, how about a video about the Soviet non-acoustic submarine detection systems they put on their own subs?
The Russians have just introduced a new class of submarine, the Moskva!
I’m surprised there hasn’t been more development of torpedo mines. It would be lovely to just gently eject torpedos that can fire themselves. That sounds like a real problem for US carrier groups
The Yasen is a Flight 3 Los Angeles Class. It is not too far fetched to do the same with a Virginia and add an extra mid section for VLT. The problem with the Russian Navy is budget. They do not maintain their fleets and their designs are rushed into service.
Also, "more stealthy" for russia really isnt saying much. Seen too many comments from submariners that tracked them talking about how they could tell who it was just by how loud they are. One comment said, "sounded like they had a chain wrapped around their prop shaft." Also russia definitely isn't ahead of the US in terms of hypersonic missile technology. Cats kinda outa the bag now that they've been used and countered in Ukraine.
Have you done a video on the two Ubatsbas, Russian Submarines in the White Sea, docked in the port of Severodvinsk, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Russia?
Or do you know of any info on them, (class, capabilities etc...)?
🤔
Great video. Thank you for making it.
The part which I found most interesting was the age of the Russian submariners. Russia, like many other countries is heading for a demographic cliff. That, coupled with poor universal education and a lot of younger people now leaving Russia may mean that the submarine force may face considerable manpower problem in the near future.
All the best.
Interesting!
@@HISuttonCovertShores Yes, it's a fascinating topic.
If you would like more information, Peter Zeihan, a Geopolitical Analyst, talks extensively about how demographics shape countries. Though be aware that his primary audience is the US Government and military, hence his forecasting is probably slightly skewed. George Friedman is also very good and I feel that his analysis is more balanced.
Russia's demographic problems are very severe, though China's are much worse. Then there's the issue of corruption in those two countries militaries. Incredibly, China has Billionaire generals.
I always wondered if the Soviet/Russian submarines were artificially loud to fool the west. In war they would become much quieter.
in my personal opinion, subs are the future for naval warfare, surface vessels especially the aircraft carriers are out of date.
Which why Russia don’t go mad over expensive aircraft carriers like usa that want to project their neo-colonial power everywhere.
overall, how does the Russian submarine (or naval) fleet compare to the US's?
Well, they're going to need a lot of high-tech components to keep to their timetable. I'm not so sure they'll have an easy time getting those. Hopefully, sanctions will give them enough of a pause that we can be sure to head them off technologically. We'll see!
I call it Cold War 2. But now it's different: Russia's economy is more sound than the USA's unless you think that huge amounts of government, state, local, corporate, and individual debt are irrelevant in the USA. Round 2: unless you think the huge MONETARY inflation, trade and budget deficits in the USA are irrelevant. Follow Peter Schiff to learn that what I state is true.
👍
yes lets get a video on the underwater cables please. Outside your wheelhouse I'm sure, but I wonder how much damage they could do to the internet.
Weren't expert for years saying how formidable Russian tanks and ground army is. That ended up being not true.
Watch a lot of bbc😂
If their submarine force is anything like their ground forces, I should be able to collect a few of them on the beach soon!
Fodder for any h/k diesel boat out hunting?
So what vessel carries the Poseidon? Doesn't bear thinking about...
Belgorod and Khabarovsk.
Sources for the info on tenure and age of Russian submariners, please?
Like it, but how about a better microphone? The sound ist quite bad.
can you do an video on Indian submarines.
there is a video of the kalibr cruice missile on youtube, its in the attack on ukraina videos. pretty sure u can use the footage of it in flight?
So because they older it means they are better trained? Lol give me a break !!
You need to make paint tutorial FFS
Man for real.
wait... isnt lada kind of a bit failed and only 3 were build and they are still mostly building improved kilos
i am confused, the UK spends more on defense then russia. has a smaller army a smaller air force and a smaller navy. and so my question is how can russia have such a larger armed forces and be of high quality as well? the most advanced technology companies in the world are western
It isn't.
You have to understand that the vast majority of information that OSI uses is based on Russian propaganda. Russian maintenance is notoriously bad and corruption runs rampant.
Google difference between gdp and purchasing power parity - on the latter, Russia sits somewhere near Germany.
It's a mirage.
Great video. Question: do we have any inkling as to how/if continued sanctions may degrade these capabilities in the long term?
Given the amount of nuclear accidents and sunk nuclear subs during peacetime accidents I never held them in as high regard. I believe they can do damage but never on par with the West. Their units do look good on paper.
1:11
There's also a tradition of overestimating russian capabilities in the west. That's not to say we should continue to err on the prudent side of things, but still systems like Armata, SU-57, TOS, etc. have turned out to not be as much of a threat as some Russo-Boos would have liked.
Could long range autonomous underwater vehicles make submarines obsolete? They can sit anywhere for an extended period, such as offshore from an enemy submarine base, then tail enemy submarines for the duration of ther mission. They could carry interceptor missiles to take out ICBMs in their launch phase.
No
They won't be obsolete but missions are becoming more dependent on UUVs. The US Navy has made a major investment in this technology particularly in cooperative operations between subs and UUVs. Modern subs have large diameter ocean interface (a great big double hatch) to launch and retrieve UUVs. The major technical challenges with UUVs are navigation (no GPS underwater) and sufficient high density energy storage. Both the Office of Naval Research (ONR) and the aquisition command (NAVSEA) have major ongoing UUV programs.
No
Очень интересно смотреть аналитику запада про вмс рф. Могу предположить что демографический кризис приведёт к беспилотным системам, беспилотные танки уже есть, беспилотные самолёты есть, подводные лодки нового поколения будут с малочисленными экипажами и высокой степенью роботизированными система управления. Война двигатель прогресс...к сожалению.
@1:40 Sutton states that the Russian submarine force isn't the air force or army, and is better funded and more capable. But I wonder if some of the reliability and maintenance issues apparent with the army and the performance of the air force might be replicated to some extent even in the Russian submarine forces? The Kursk disaster and (lack of) recovery effort, the noisiness of many Russian submarine models (that start out quiet when brand new but get very noisy over time, apparently due to poor maintenance or lack of parts replacements), and the inability to maintain Admiral Kuznetsov (or to avoid a major fire during refit) all suggest that the Russian navy (and submarine fleet) might actually share some of the issues the Russian Army and Air Force have exhibited recently?
Basically the subs have always been the elite of the soviet/russian navy and that is far more true now than before. The navy has a few large trophy ships for propoganda (CV BCGN CG ) and smaller modern ships they can build. The sub force is real strength with modern SS SSN and SSBN. The russians realise with NATO air dominance subs are the only viable option to contest the seas.
well put
A possible takeaway from the recent war is, that Russia is capable of developing advanced prototypes, but not able to put them into series production/adoption.
Building prototypes is completely different from series production, but the shipbuilding industry is significantly closer to "artisan" production than to mass production.
That is probably why they can't produce more than a dozen modern aircraft or tanks per year, but are capable of producing a respectable amount of top of the line subs.
There might be a problem with weapons production though, while the Kalibr did really well, a lot of tanks are seen stocked with old munitions and a limited stock of new/smart weapons also means a lack of training options.
People getting butthurt about yet another war. When they probably haven't given a rats ass about most wars, ever. Probably couldn't find Donbas on a map prior lmao.
It's weird to hear that the submarine force would be free from the cleptocratic culture that permeates all other aspects of Russian society.
Great overview . I used to be very interested but lost track with the end of the Cold War . This is a very informative update on capabilities . Hopefully one of the few good things to come out of the Ukraine War is that the West recognises The Russian threat and develops ways to deal with Hypersonic missiles and Poseidon .
Agreed, Unfortunately l still like to call Russian submarines, sinkmarines. Iol.
But . . . Can they fight off a giant sea monster like Captain Nemo's Nautilus?
We have over-estimated Russian numbers and capabilities forever. And I'm sure we are doing it now with their subs. We keep assuming their advertised capabilities are valid, and that they can field the full quantities they advertise. I'll accept that the sub service is better run and funded than other Russian armed services, but I won't give it the full credit others do. Can they launch nukes? Sure, and that's why we assume they're capable and act accordingly, but I'd give them 50% credit for SUSTAINED operations. They can deploy, bit it's real thin.
The Russians have also got the new Moskva Class Submarine,
Apparently Putin sent the Moskva out on a ‘Special Operation’ to test it’s diving capabilities, they could confirm that it’s diving capabilities actually work, but when it came to resurfacing it, they then found out that they forgot to add the ballast tanks to their Flagship,
L🤣L👍🏼
Do you think their nukes are maintained? Reportedly, they have to replace their pits every 10 years or so- very expensive.
I think deployed ones (2000 ish) are well maintained. Most of the perception on Russia being a military equivalent of NATO was actually a public perception left from the cold war. Russian propaganda never claimed such a thing. Russia has always been aware of NATO's size compared to Russia (~1.5x landmass, ~8x population, ~25x economic size). They know they can't equal an entity with 25 times more resources. But nuclear weapons are very cheap for their firepower. You can spend a few dozen billions annually and can amass a large enough nuclear arsenal to kill billions.
For this reason nuclear has been the pillar of their military. This way Russia ensures NATO will never use its power against Russia. The submarine building got its share from that too for the obvious reason. Russian nuclear arsenal, submarines and bombers should be evaluated differently from the rest of the Russian military. They are disproportionately high funded compared to the rest.