EXCLUSIVE: Tesla’s Robotaxi Will Unlock Trillions! [Full Report]
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 มิ.ย. 2024
- Today we’ll be doing a deep dive on how exactly Tesla’ robotaxi business will unlock trillions in Tesla’s market cap valuation. In what he calls, the great repricing of Tesla, our guest today came prepared with a full analysis of the unit economics, the market size, the valuations forecasted. This will be by far one of the most detailed analysis you’ll see.
With a career in tech M&A investment banking, Justin has spent the last 10 years in startups in Silicon Valley. As a TSLA shareholder since 2013, he was part of the group that dubbed the term “Teslanaires” on CNBC.
Hes is known on X for TSLA options trading and sharing both fundamental & technical outlooks and catalysts for Tesla.
We’ll also be joined by Cern Basher, a chartered financial analyst who’s well respected for his Tesla financial models.
Find Justin on:
X: @smdcapital88
Find Cern on:
/ cernbasher
My website: www.HerbertOng.com
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Disclaimer: All content on this channel should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
Author is invested in multiple Humanoid companies and is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
Edited by: Roshan Khatiwada
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Herbert
Has anyone in their analysis accounted for potential medical emergency situations during the ride? Or handicap people? I would imagine grok will need to be fully integrated in the car for robotaxis for these kind of things. I’m wondering what waymo has
It would be pretty funny if Robo taxi was deployed everywhere except for Delaware😅
lol that’s a different level of petty lmao
Delanowhere
😂😂 such a tiny state waymo can geofence it and have that area
Considering a young mid income, short term minded person with constant need for cash, are these still worth investing into? I am new to all of these and have incurred so much losses, I am beginning to think I am not doing what is good for me but just following people blindly.
VENTURING into the trading world without the help of a profesionals, trading and expecting profit is like turning water into wine you would need a miracle...
It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast. I will also suggest investors to get yourselves a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
Following you has been an amazing journey , you have shown me the best way to earn much better profits despite the bad economic situations, God bless you with more knowledge Alice devion...
Alice devion. understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch.?
Any info on how i can liaise with her, i'm new at this
FSD in its current state has finally convinced me to buy a Model Y Juniper when released. My original plan was another Defender or the upcoming 6th gen 4Runner. But having my vehicle drive for me is too much of a pull. The potential to later add it to the robotaxi network and pay for itself is a bonus.
2.9M people fly in USA every day. Who wants to park at the airport. This is prime space for robotaxi and should be modeled… not just urban riders.. probably mostly sub urban
Who needs short haul flights when a Robotaxi could take you in private from point to point?
@@krest5955 because it’s a 1 hour flight or 8 hour drive. What are you saying man?
All boils down to cost and value if FSD goes like 25 cent per miles then nothing even individual car ownership is gone
I live 1 hour (55 miles from the airport) and sometimes paid more in long term parking from MI to Tx and back than the cost of airfare. Robotaxi or my own FSD for the car to go home on its own.
When I saw 1hr33m I was like LETS GO! Appreciate the longer form, in-depth convos, including the new perspectives. Thanks Herbert, Cern and Justin. (Edited spelling)
It's so funny how people who are really interested has no problem the way herbert produces videos. And some people only complain. Make it short. I can't watch this long format. Blah blah. If you can't watch the long format, chances are you have few hundred bucks in the stock. Herbert provides a free service for all of us and we are all spoiled!
I love long format because it is full of info to understand the company and hedge against the risk for retail investors
I think when people start seeing videos of the fetch and summon features on the cars and seeing them, drive all by themselves, and park all by themselves, they will finally get it! The stock should start going up at that point I would think.
Just because a car can park itself doesn’t mean it’s wanted for anything
@@daveblock You can walk and complain on the side of the road, while we enjoy all our features and have the car do most of the work then.
@@venice2823 I’ll be in an Uber and communicating with a human. Moor on.
The p/e ratio would suggest that future earnings are already factored into the stock price
Very smart comment.
But this Dave block guy is lacking intelligence
Add Justin to Cyberbulls.
Anyone who pays careful attention to Tesla ends up a Bull.
Don't forget about surge pricing Uber. Makes a radical difference to the price of the ride
Pricing surge ain't some rocket science
Uber will be the Myspace of 2026
Thanks Hubert … you have great guests speakers (today’s speaker is outstanding) that spread over many aspects of the Tesla world, you are always super attentive to what is said, you always try to balance your guests so as to keep things alive, and your stamina overall is just amazing. I give you my top pick when it comes to my Tesla TH-cam listening hours, then comes Farzad, then BestInTesla, then SMR (who is starting to use far too many 4 letter words .. his AG1 must be energizing him the wrong way), then Randy Kirk for filling in the gaps. Congratulations 🙏🙏👍👍💥🚀🌈🎶👏👏 At the end of all this you need to set up your own fleet with Larry , Cern , Justin and .. maybe a few retail investors 😮😂!!
Really cool he uses Optimus to do the cleaning !!!🤩🤩🤩
thank you Carlo :)
-Justin
Also consider the grounded Tesla videos by Jo Bhakdi.👌
Randi Kirk and his exuberant optimism is balanced well by Brian White. SMR is getting more emotional. Lars Standridder and Dylan Lumis and The Electric Viking for a few more..
Are people with a family going to want hundreds of strangers riding in their car? Don’t think so. I can see Fleet owners, but not as many individuals using it to generate income.
I agree with you but the ability to generate robo revenue will make owning a Tesla affordable for those who currently can only afford a Corolla. Investors often forget that there is a class of people who do not make as much money as they do
@@ericdahl2915 the difference is currently maybe $50/month, if that. It’s the same demographic, but maybe making it a taxi for 5 hours a week would be worth it to them. Just don’t think many people are going to want strangers riding around in their personal car.
@@gregoryscott5111 Being that a Corolla is MSRP $23,000 I disagree with your math but I agree that I don't want strangers in my car....but only because I generate a good income
@@ericdahl2915 model 3 was available recently for .99% APR. I imagine the average Toyota was 3 to 6% if not higher. Also a lower priced Tesla is soon to be released.
@@gregoryscott5111 we'll see what happens on 8/8. Don't count your chickens yet
Excellent stuff guys, and huge thanks Justin. Robotaxi is how Elon and Tesla plan to truly bring the hammer down on ICE and transition 95% of passenger miles to EV ASAP (within 10 years after launch according to RethinkX).
It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast. I will also suggest investors to get yourselves a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
VENTURING into the trading world without the help of a profesionals, trading and expecting profit is like turning water into wine you would need a miracle...
Only God knows how much grateful i am. After so much struggles I now own a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!!Christen wilburn
Great to see you guys talking of Christen, Trading on your own can be very dangerous i can testify to that. This woman changed the game for me
You trade ?? Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?
Any info on how i can reach her, i'm new at this
Incredible content. Thank you Herbert, Cern and Justin. Much appreciated.
I think that tesla will partner with delivery companies to do last mile package deliveries to businesses where there will be someone there to unload and take the packages out of the vehicle. This will help even out demand in non-peak hours when most people are at work and not needing rides as much. Also, this would help to keep big vehicles out of high-density areas minimizing traffic, accidents and help speed up deliveries. You would be going from the hub directly to the drop off area instead of stopping multiple times before dropping off a business's package. You could even partner with food places and take out uber eats as well.
Great work! Thank you Justin! Thanks all!🙏
Outstanding content! Kudos to Justin for the deep dive. And of course great work Cern and Herbert also!
Interesting that Uber realizes that the TAM will increase with Robotaxi, _but they won't be the ones benefiting!_
Great work!!! Learned a LOT!!!
Much appreciated, great discussion. The most difficult modeling for me is customer ride hail usage and revenue, so many unknowns and variables, I personally left it out. Anything it brings I consider a bonus.
REPRICING happens after @ 1 quarter of actual revenues and margins. It's that simple.
Excellent work Herbert . Much appreciated 🙏👌👏
So in-depth and a great show. Thanks for the insights into your models !
Excellent, well thought out and realistically analysed. Great professional presentation 👍
Fantastic video! Kudos to all three of you, for your extensive work, dedication and knowledge. ❤🙏
Did they allow for vandalism, cleaning up throw-up, flat tires, intentional damage, Credit Card Fraud, rain storms (car won’t drive in heavy down pour) accident time on repair shop?
Of all the hurdles that Tesla has achieved and still needs to achieve, the single biggest one IMHO is that FSD has to be completely solved. Not greatly improved and "getting there", but solved to the point where anyone would put a child in the back seat of Tesla and send it to school with complete confidence. As good as FSD currently is, it is still very far from that level and, without that, any robotaxi revenue simply doesn't happen - ever.
💯
27:34 lol I have the same dryer
Congratulations - fantastic analysis. One stat that would be really eye opening to include would be the reduction of ICE miles driven. That also has the potential to be a big driver for climate change activists etc etc.
Fab video - so much info ! 8/8 can't come soon enough!
Where can I get a copy of his slides?
Did they include insurance and any taxes? The other thing is how will Tesla charge an owner for charging, vs fleet, vs Tesla owned.
Tesla will make money on Supercharging. For Robotaxi, it will increase utilization of fast chargers, and when.
We have had over the years alot of Tesla Bulls making their case for the stock piece and I'd like to know what your forecasts were years ago at this point in time? How far off or close are we? Many of us will retire if all this comes to fruition. But we cannot predict what the market will do.
FSD in different transportation vehicles for different types of use cases.
Is it possible to get a copy of the presentation? Thx
FYI
in 2021, the total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the United States was approximately 3.23 trillion miles and PCMT (passengers vehicles only) is 60 to 70% of that.
Ref : NHTSA and The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS)
Have you built in the time to clean the cab?
I think he does, 15 hours. That leaves 9 for charging and cleaning.
A bot capable of cleaning? Maybe in 3 years. So if we have to wait, the quick clean vs detail needs to be costed out. And hopefully, the app will allow user to say, car needs cleaning.
@@tireddad6541 bingo :)
Looking forward to an Optimus similar analysis versus Robotaxi. How will the split be overtime and include energy as well. When will energy pass car sales?
They can use the idle time as paid inference.
March of 9s, how many 9s? 50? 100? 1000? 10,000? How long will the training and compute process to correct these edge cases take? The timelines will be greatly impacted by these factors. Can Herbert & company discuss these issues in detail aside from focusing too much on these hyper inflated valuation of Tesla. Just my 2cents suggestion.
Yeah agreed on this and I am believer in FSD, Tesla and Elon but this corner issue isn't going to go down easy.
Great video, I enjoyed listening. I have been very interested in this because I was wondering about setting up a service in a small city. Until you hit saturation for the lowest utilization time, I don't see why you would shut down for 5 hours a week. I see between 3-4 charging breaks. I was thinking 30 min each. During that 30 min you would inspect and clean the car. For 1000 cars you would need about 80 chargers..... How much will that cost, and what kind of power hookup do I need? Maybe I should just buy the Tesla stock and not have the stress.
1:10:37. It won't be "adversarial" against the "common" people. There are MANY more riders than there are drivers, and this will be GREAT for the riders. So the majority of the people will benefit. So I'm not convinced this will shake out any different than it did for Uber.
That’s my guess too. Robotaxi valuation will come out of no where. All that nvda money will go out and go into tsla that’s been my thesis for the last 4 years.
Great discussion. I can’t wait for the great repricing of Tesla, but I am still buying stock when ever I have spare cash.
I think 15 hrs utilization is a bit high. Cost per ride is going down dramatically because so many vehicles are in ride share, hint more competition. Insurance rate is going up and maintenance. Maybe monthly subscription for ride share makes much more sense as passengers want to limit on their spending. Suburban tend to be self reliance, unless it’s apocalypse, then don’t really care about ride share.
I used a taxi once a year for decades. When ridesharing came into existing I used Uber & Lyft several times a month because the price went from $30 to $10-15. Is elasticity of demand incorporated in these models?
Residual Income is Grrrrrreat! ☝🏽⚡️
Is there any trial Tesla driver-less robotaxi that anyone can book right now in SF? Seems like there are is only Waymo and Cruise.. Looks like August 8 will be re-scheduled again..
Uber/Lyft don't pay drivers for the time and miles to pick up. The also don't pay drivets wait time at pick up until 7 minutes pass.
They both have done away with surge as well...
Would it be correct to take weather conditions into account? Can’t see, that FSD is capable of driving in any weather conditions anytime soon, without additional sensors.
Everyone is thinking about robotaxi utilisation for passenger transport, and the bigger use case would be "goods transport" by people and businesses during business hours. Not sure on legal aspect, but if legal, hauling and courier companies would benefit from fleet robotaxis too.
I would assume they will have robo taxi servicing hubs for servicing, cleaning and charging? I’ve not heard of many analysts talking about this. If so it means they might have to purchase/rent properties?
There's something called 'pie in the sky' then there's this episode. It's like 'pie in the Andromeda galaxy' lol. GUYS, stop day dreaming. Our EPS, Growth, delivery, margin - all are down. And here we are selling fugazi! GOSH!
hahah
Taxi from Simferopol to New York with all shipping planned and include, or from Minsk to Buenos Aires
Auto bidder opportunity for pricing for sure
They will build for peak demand. Elon has already mentioned using the chips in the car as a super computer when not in use. They can also pump energy into the grid. Win win win.
agreed
If the modeling we were shown today comes to fruition, it seems like S/D would push the prices of buying a Tesla much higher, however that seems like it at least partially contradicts parts of the master plan as fewer people will have the ability to buy an EV, thus speeding up the transition to sustainable energy. Will that be offset by more people taking robotaxi?
Is there a realistic scenario, call it Uber++ where a driver/conductor/baggage handler/security agent (DCBS) rides along, using FSD for 95% of the driving and navigating load. Gradually shift those DCBS roles to Optimus units.
I don’t think hardware 3 vehicles are going to be robotaxi capable.
All the cars out there now are running FSD on hardware 3
@@douglasgray3206They aren't robotaxis, though, and the question is whether their current hardware suite would allow them to safely operate as robotaxis.
If I could send kids to school in my own tesla driven by fsd or in a robotaxi driven by fsd it would give my wife and I back between one and two hours a day. Add to that kids going to sport, play dates etc and we have a technology that will give us back 10 to 15 hours a week. Sure we will still want to spend time with our kids. But it will be quality time rather than time spent driving. Both our finances and quality of life will improve as a result.
This channel loves to counts the eggs before you have the chicken, for years !
ARK's numbers on Robotaxi valuation are much higher. Did someone catch what exactly are the key differences between their model and Justin's?
Individual owner vehicles will be used mostly for peak demand times in my opinion. If Tesla has 10k cars in a city and this is enough for most times, they can have peak demand surge pricing that they pass to the individual owners to motivate them make their car available or the network.
If I get to send my car for just 4 hours a day and make as much money as if I was doing Uber, I'd rearrange my schedule to make my car available, and I'm sure enough people would do the same!
Surge supply instead of demand. Use AI + historical data + predictable events to estimate demand volume and locations.
I predict that Seniors will be HUGE users of RoboTaxis. I'm 73 and can see the day when I voluntarily give up my car for the convenience of a RoboTaxi. Currently Seniors who do not drive must depend on someone else to drive them everywhere they go. Robotaxis will be much more convenient and will free up that driver.
Yes, I am almost 59 and looking down the road (no pun intended) at the need one day for FSD. Given the aging of America it like humanoid robotics can't come too soon.
The Tesla Robotax will be defeated by two traffic cones.
Why is RBC capital so far off from Cern, Justin, and even Ark?
Canadian
And delivery vans.
I just want to say there has been a perception that Nvidia is the company selling the metaphorical shovels and pick axes and Tesla and other companies are the minors looking for the gold. The thing is, the minors back in the day finding gold was more about “luck” at the end of the day. That is not the case today with “AI”. There is a clear and distinct path for success with A.I. and looking out a clever and forward looking/thinking person can project a set of probable paths it will take. I think you guys are doing that; thank you. The thing is, I see mostly only the “pro’s”. I want to see the “con’s” as well. What could go wrong? We should look at that so we can see the risks as well.
How will the grid be able to handle this unplanned demand?
The cost per mile needs to be equal to or below cost of ownership to get people to switch to using robotaxis. Otherwise the have cost of their own vehicles plus paying for robotaxis. Cost per mile needs to be under $.75 per mile so people don’t need to buy a car.
Cyber cab unveil is not a catalsyt because its already been unveiled and is a slow burning value add to tesla, also no matter what teslas true value is , the stock price will never reflect it if only a handful of analysts can calculate it
Musk endorsed Cathy Wood's 5 years 2,600$ target 2029
NB -ALL $TSLA prices quoted on every slide are ROBOTAXI ONLY . Ie incremental to current price .
you need to add the cost of the infrastructure (Roads) as cities will levy taxes on Robotaxis to use the roads
Did I understand it correctly that they assume a robotaxi will cost around $40k (around today's ASP) and generate about $12k a year (around 1k a month)? And they dont think Elon will raise the price for either the car or FSD? When in history have the market not corrected for demand and supply to its equilibrium? This would imply a relatively safe return of 30% per year (12/40).
Stated differently, this would imply a P/E of 3.33 (40/12). There is no way an asset producing those numbers will do so in the medium- or long-term. What would happen is that institutions like BlackRock etc would come in with its cheap capital and place an order for all the cars for the next 10 years and no one else would be able to compete.
I believe one of two things will happen: 1) Tesla will reprice either the car or FSD to reach an equilibrium between Supply and Demand or 2) the earnings from robotaxis will have to come down to a level that would provide a reasonable return. Remember, Tesla is not a charity. If Tesla keeps leaving money on the Table, investors would probably go after them. You already see today that Tesla applies dynamic pricing models to its cars where they discount or raise their prices almost every month to find that equilibrium.
Or did I misunderstand this discussion completely and if so, please correct me.
I think they need to develop projections for Mexico. Assuming GigaMexico, how fast would Tesla be able to build chargers and batteries needed. And my question would be does Tesla need a Battery factory in Mexico.
Reasoning on these questions. We would be able to track progress of plan for Mexico.
I believe you also need to project for Canada, which has good public transportation. That is actually a benefit.
You get more short rides to the subway or Metro etc.
I think states and countries are going to tax robotaxi's @ 30% of fares (gut estimate). Not at launch, because governments move slowly, but they will introduce it in the 3-5 year timeline.
Peak over Average : Tesla improves Owner Revenue share for Peak - Surge Pricing Tesla style.
Speaking of confidence levels, I don't think we are appropriately factoring in the power of fear. I don't think the mass Market is going to so quickly adopt a driverless car even if it's faster and cheaper
The longer that event takes to happen, the happier I am. I am in no rush at all when I can just keep buying shares each month
Its worth buting 20 more Tesla shares today!
So robotaxi is not a 10x valuation in 5-10 years? The conclusion is more 2-5x ?? Did i understand that right?
Still think there might be one more type. Tesla might allow consumers to lease or own one or more cybertaxis that are entirely dedicated to the tesla fleet. The consumer profit shares with tesla but has no responsibility for maintenance, repairs, charging and storage. It could be a win for tesla as the consumer absorbs tesla's manufacturing costs and in exchange tesla shares in the profit for the life of the vehicle (8-10 years).
"Where I landed..."
The confidence will happen when all excess production will go into robotaxi fleet. Jmho
What would happen if Optimus was included in a Robotaxi as a backup driver !?? 🤪😂
I just model how many miles will be driven with FSD, as a % of total miles travelled. Going into types of vehicle ownership is irrelevant imo
Great episode . 800k miles . Written down to Zero ~ 14 yrs Old , no capital recovery(trash it). But no provision for Replacement Battery or Power Unit within 800k miles ? (Ambitious? ) . This IS the Elon promise for dedicated RT but is it ambitious and is it true for stock models 3/y/S/X .no provision for cosmetic resurrection . At say 7 yrs of age ? New seats/carpets/paint ?
No Cost of the FSD S/W? Capex or rental ? Did I miss it ? Maybe feels like picking flyshit out of pepper😮 .
Is $1.87 going to be competitive enough versus still owning a car ? Versus other operators ? But who can they be ? Not Uber (driver) & Not Waymo ( car cost)
Great episode (I’m only 33mins in 🤷🏼♂️)
Might go carless in my retired future.
Elon said the car will stay low priced but FSD will be $100,000’s❤🎉
imo: For a New Ride Hail app to be popular enough to achieve optimum adoption, or even acceptance , it MUST have, at its core, very rapid availability (3 mins max) from Day ONE (or Day 2 following a brief Beta- shakedown period maybe with Tesla Owners as Chaperones ). Ergo high volume fleet required quickly , Ergo Condensed Geography- at launch . Flood the market to achieve excellent availability.
Tesla has this in 2 ways initially :
A)Existing Stock:New /2nd Hand /Ex lease
B) Existing Owner Fleet
B will get a larger Income Cut for peak demand periods .
Then of Course, the Dedicated Platform will enter the fleet gradually -ex factory.
How is RBC imagining this exciting new Market Place? idk .
NB - Tesla will ONLY enable the hailing of a Tesla vehicle from the Tesla App exclusively - they said. (Good)
What am I missing please?
Tesla will not be the only electric self driving car on the road. GM has been producing more cars with assisted driving so they may have competitive software by the time this taxi business takes off ? What about competition timelines ?
GM doesn’t even do over the air updates.
How many Nvidia H100’s has GM been ordering? Tesla has over 1B miles driven under FSD - it’s going to take competitors 4-5 years if they start today to get something that may be competitive. This is a super complex problem to solve. How many cars does GM have on the road today with 7-8 cameras sending training data back to GM - maybe zero. How long would it take GM to even start gathering that data - min 12-18 months if they move fast. A much more likely & realistic scenario is that they OEM Tesla’s FSD - but even that would take min 2-3 years to get started.
Why the zooming in so close. People's heads are way to big. Not normal
Hurts my eyes. Please don't. Split screen is awesome. I prefer seeing all at once
Robotaxi will disrupt all forms of transportation. Trains, Airlines (domestic flights), Bus Services. No one wants to share a mode of transport with strangers if they don’t have to.
If a person is passed out , you have to take them to the hospital, or call an ambulance 👍😊I drive for Lyft . I had to call an ambulance for a passed out girl . What else could I do ?
The percent active users at 75% is overly optimistic.
At some point you may have more vehicles in service than people trying to hire a Tesla taxi. Then the economics goes down from so many sitting around making no money for more hours than 15 hours a day making money. What if it drops to like 10 hours a day of taxi'ing.
The fruit industry is worth 100 billion dollars per annum ten percent of that is labour if Optimus can pick that fruit that'll be worth 10 billion a year providing domestic service is much harder than picking fruit it would be better to prove out the technology with simple tasks like picking fruit
Tesla is late to the fruit industry. There’s already an Apple company dominating the field
Dumbest comment of the year. Well done.
The hospital work force worth even more!!!! If optimus can replace all the doctors and nurses
@@SupaChinido Wow, your comment just became the dumbest of the year….way to bring it.
@@daveblock go home, every comment is the dumbest to u
There are other costs to consider: vandalism and accidents (liability).
Uber will be joining Myspace in the dust bin