Bristol Myers Squibb Company: Too Cheap To Ignore | FAST Graphs
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 ก.ย. 2024
- A+ rated Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) is a blue-chip dividend growth stock offering a 3% and growing current yield. Historically, this stalwart pharmaceutical giant has commanded a premium valuation multiple by Mr. Market. However, since November 2018 Bristol Myers has been selling at a discount to not only its historical norms but historical market norms as well. Despite this low valuation, the company has outperformed the S&P 500 on both dividend income and capital appreciation. Furthermore, this low valuation also supports an opportunity for outsized future gains at below-average levels of risk. In addition to the company's extremely high quality, the significant undervaluation provides a margin of safety as an additional layer of risk mitigation.
In this video, I will be running Bristol Myers Squibb by the numbers via the FAST Graphs fundamentals analyzer software tool. In addition to providing a fundamental analysis of the company, I will simultaneously be illustrating the power of the FAST Graphs research tool as well as how to use it to your maximum benefit.
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Disclaimer: FAST Graphs is a tool designed to reveal and present information related to financial data and investment metrics. It is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations. Instead, it offers a comprehensive view of relevant data, empowering users to make informed decisions based on their own analysis. It's your first step to a more comprehensive research and due diligence process. In short, it is a tool to think with. The opinions in this video are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned.
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One more bmy diagnosis sir!
I've absolutely no problem with a longer video as thoroughly as this one. As a FG-subsriber I really learned a lot from these videos and the blogs on the website. Thanx!!
I’m also a FB-Subscriber; what I do, EVERYTIME - is to Watch/Pause on my iPad, and Emulate on my Desktop Computer - Replicating most of the things that he is demonstrating. Kinesthetic Learning.
Thorough videos such as this provide an enormous due-diligence education. Understanding the quality of a company and its results is a serious undertaking. I am a long-time FG subscriber.
As a shareholder of BMY I really appreciate your work !
Thank you !
"I want to go concise with this video".... please don't. That was great and thorough. Thanks Chuck. 👍
Chuck - I bought this at $54 based on your recommendation video 1 year ago and indeed I am very happy with my purchase and still holding all of my shares raking in 3.1% dividend with reinvesting the same back into bmy. Very thankful to you for suggesting this.
Crazy. Cause my average price is $56.36 with a yield on cost of 3.83%
Glad im raking in more than you on a more expensive price
🙄
BMY (NYSE) $68.48
I’ve owned BMY since the 1990s
Bmy is for me a strong buy.
Sotykto got approval in the US and more Countrys will follow to approve.
That will be the next Blockbuster for Bmy with huge Potential.There Pipline and Cashflows is a great Rock in these Times.
This didb't age well
Could you do an update on BMY, please?
Analysts have further reduced the estimates, but even though, the stock look very cheap inderd.
Best investment tool & channel available.😀
BMY was at 70.53 at the time of this video and I also thought it was a buy. Today, April 25, 2024 it is currently at 44.69 on a down market day and slump in BMY over an extended period. Wonder what we should have seen and wondering if a good buy now or on the way down (frequently the Q)?
Looking at analytical analysis only is useless... As most of the videos on this channel.
@@CroncAstronautHmmm - then why are you here? As a user of Fast Graphs, while I find the videos and the related tool indispensable. I've used the product for several years. My post was to see if I had missed something in liking BMY. Do you have an opinion on BMY?
@@davebean2886 I'm here because i like to read different sources in general. This one, as many others, proves to be a failed assessement. On BMY, yes, I have an opinion. I think it will fall even further in the next 4-6 months, around 35$.
When I think of BMY, I have a picture of a good red wine in my mind. If it doesn't help, maybe the wine does.
😊
Cheers!
Great graphical 'multi view' on BMY. Compelling Buy. I bought some around 50-plus and sold. Will definitely consider for a long-term holding.
Chuck, really thought this was a great one. Taught me some features I hadn't used on FG. I prefer a tutorial like this to the "25 cheap ones" kind.
It’s always exciting when Chuck does a more detailed video on a stock I am long. It’s hard to see how you lose $ on BMY. This stock price does not seem to correlate to earnings as close as some others but I am betting on that black line touching the orange line again in 2-5 years
love the Company and I always like to flip this company. I sold at nearly 80 and am willing to buy back between 65 and 70.
Think about taxes when trading Stocks. Thats the reason I buy and hold
I do the same thing in my Roth.
We get it, you timed the market perfectly 🙄
Sir, too cheap to ignore at 70.53? now is 48.93
They don't ring a bell at the top or bottom of the market , but fundamentals do not lie
Excellent, excellent video. Thank you for the tremendous detail and analysis.
Thanks Chuck. I put on my watchlist
Always nice to see you videos Chuck, thank you.
This video popped up on YT for me a year after it was made. Since this video was made BMY has dropped $20+/sh.
Would you please update your analysis, Chuck?
Garbage@@mikewu9483
Good one! Thanks for the analysis.
Better to enter now than a year ago.
You’re a great teacher Mr Chuck
flirting with 60 now, any chance for a revisit vid on $bmy? thanks chuck!
Update? Thank you!
hi Chuck, can you re -do BMY? it trades @61$ and looks very cheap. thx
BMY dividend growth has increased in recent years. The most recent dividend increase was 10% and 5 year average is 6%. This puts the company at approximately a 28% payout ratio. It's likely we could see a significant increase in dividends in the coming years.
10 year compounded dividend growth rate is about 7.7% from 08 to 18 which captures growth potential outside of economic downturns and prior to acquisition.
How about an update on BYM?
62.14 today. Chuck, a better deal or Value Trap? It would be nice to go back and see many of these that are much lower than when you reviewed them and answer that question on each?
thats a good idea for a new video
48 today lol...crazy
Hi Chuck, I love the tool you have created. The question I have is can you put in any dollar amount from my Porfilio or is the starting amount 10,000 as your initial starting amount. Only been investing a short time.
You don’t say if you are a Subscriber ( I am );
[ ] Under the Gear Tool in the Upper Right Hand Corner - for ‘Graph Settings’ - you can ENTER an Amount in the ‘Performance Results’s On:’ - but THAT amount will be: - for ALL Tickers (just like, ‘Custom Valuation Ratio’) and realize it will be for ALL PERIODS of Analysis - not from the Real Date of your Transaction; HOWEVER
[ ] You CAN - Enter (‘Manage your Transactions’ - BUYS and Dividends Re-Invested) under the $ (next to the Gear in the Upper Right) of the Screen; and/OR - IF you have Created a PORTFOLIO in ‘My Portfolios’ - under ‘HOLDINGS’ - Enter or Import Transactions’ - see Tutorials for doing the Import
ALSO, on the Graph - after having Entered your Transaction . . . There will be a Green Dot that SHOWS you Purchase and a Line that Shows your ‘Average Cost’; THERE you can Select your ‘Buy’ and then Select a Future Period of Time on the Price Line to see - ‘Rate of Return’ - Market Value, Growth, Ann ROR (w/out Div), Dividends, MV + Div, Total ROR and Tot Ann ROR for THAT Period.
Now it's really too cheap for me to ignore! I've been patiently waiting...
a year in and now down to 50. thoughts on if this is still good to open a position here?
love me some BMY!
Fantastic video! Much appreciated for a new pensioner!
Below $50 now, time to buy! It becomes really cheap.
maybe...but three months later it might be at 42 lol...hard to invest in pharma
Seven months later - stock pays a decent dividend and is about the same price now - which I'm not complaining about - I was looking for a stable stock. Is there any reason that BMY isn't as good a buy now or perhaps slightly better? Your thoughts? I have my quota, but thinking of recommending to a friend.
Would be great with an update indeed. I think the forecast going forward have been reduced and there is higher generic erosion than initially thought.
If you like BMY at $70 you must love it at 50. Same goes for PFE. Buy low sell high might work now.
Thanks for sharing your view. However, it is flawed logic to simply assume a stock is better at a lower price, because you also have to consider it whether fundamentals are changing or not. Nevertheless, in the case of Bristol-Myers I do believe the stock was cheap at $70 and in the long run that will prove to be a good long-term investment. Of course, that also says that buying unit $50 today will also be as you say an opportunity to buy low. Fundamentals matter more than price. Regards, Chuck
Great vid thx ! What do you think of the fall of MPW ? Seems that Mr. Market lost his mind… have a nice day 😊
Nate, I have a video in the works on MPW. I expect to publish it Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, watch for it. Regards, Chuck
@@FASTgraphs amazing Chuck! Thx for all your works
Closed at $59.03 on 9/15/23. The Fast Graph tool was not helpful on BMY.
FAST Graphs is a fundamentals analyzer software tool intended for long-term value investing. It is not a market timing or short-term trading software. With that said FAST Graphs is invaluable for BMY.
Chuck, can you explain more about your min EPS Yld?
David, earnings yield (E/P) is the inverse of the P/E ratio and tells you what return you would receive if you owned 100% of the company and they paid you 100% of their profits. Ben Graham the father of value investing suggested that we should never pay more than 15 times earnings to buy a stock, which represents a 6.67% earnings yield. For most companies, not all but most, that represents a very prudent principal for value investors to adhere to. In other words, what is the minimum return you would be willing to get for the risk you are taking. There is much more to the story, but hopefully this provides some insight. Regards, Chuck
@@FASTgraphs thank you very much
While I agree that BMY is a good value now I'm not sure why now is the time to cover it when it was cheaper earlier in the year (I purchased under $60) when there are numerous other opportunities in the market at 52 week lows. Just a few today you have VZ, VFC, BNS, CM, MMM, T, INTC, & WBA hitting new lows. But I do enjoy your videos and BMY is definitely a good company at a good value.
Richard:I agree with all the names you mentioned and have produced videos on all of them. One caveat, just because a company hits new Low's does not necessarily mean that it is undervalued. You have to look at valuation in relation to fundamentals like earnings and cash flows not just price action. Regards, Chuck P. S. I'm glad you like the videos.
@@FASTgraphs I fully agree that new lows don't necessarily mean that they are a good value, but in this case the stocks I mentioned are. As a Fastgraphs subscriber I do appreciate it's usefulness in determining fair value and ensuring a measure of safety when researching potential stock additions to my investment portfolio. Thank you again
I don't like pharma companies. Too much risk on both the product pipeline and liability.
I believe that Chuck is Double Sharing this on both FAST graphs and Dividend Kings by THEIR Request; Here was the Introduction in Yesterday's DK Article on Seeking Alpha, "Most Requested Stocks by Dividend Kings and iREIT Subscribers" . . .
"The stocks I was asked to cover are the ones most asked for based on a survey of you the subscribers of Dividend Kings and iREIT. The list of 5 stocks that you asked to be covered will be presented over a series of 5 additional videos.
I would avoid T, VZ and MMM personally. All the rest are fair game.
Thank you!
good analysis
Sorry meant BMY
A 1 year early, -20%. Congratulations!!!
Price is what you pay value is what you get, but you also get the dividend. That's why you need to hold an investment in a dividend paying value stock for at least a business cycle.
Ha, just bought this bad boy at $48.84! and up a little and expect at least 55 a share by end of 2024, but how low will this fall when the market crashes in February or March of 24--even BMY stock will lose money. all this long-winded analysis fails the macro outlook of doom/crash landing.
what about moderna? seens undervalued
Earnings have collapsed therefore, I don't consider MRNA cheap
I find Eli Lilly interesting.
already overweight BMY...let that drip continue
I don’t invest in dishonest companies.
Way cheaper now one year later.
Buy it while you can
@@FASTgraphs
Yes but not so great a buy a year ago.
PER 18x is CHEAP??? !!!!
operating earnings P/E ratio is only 9.37. I think you're looking at gap earnings. The video explained all of that. thanks, Chuck
This advice did not age well I guess..
It aged worse now
Too cheap a year ago makes it......what now?
Even cheaper, if you're prudent long-term investor
This company got its cheeks clapped....
Your entire model needs to be overhauled. The "fair value" expressed as a multiple of earnings growth in an environment of imported deflation, extreme QE, and negative real rates of inflation is very different than the multiple of earnings growth that is appropriate to assign in an era of de-globalization, dollar strengthening, QT, and positive real rates of inflation in a much higher rate environment. You say your historical data is "long-term" -- it is NOT. It does not capture anything but a monoculture period of time. Go back to markets in the 60s and 70s and see what P/Es the market assigned in non-QT, non zero-bound interest rate environments. YOU are old enough to know if inflation is sticky or pervasive, the "average P/E" of the last 20 years is going to be 2x too high. Perhaps you believe current inflation is 100% driven by Covid and breakages in supply-chain, and that the explosion in debt and the massive increase in money supply has nothing to do with it. If so, then carry on, interest rates will be back to the 2.0% target in a year or so. But if you're not in denial about the impacts of radical increase in money supply, and the reality that there is now no way to "undo" that, and you believe that the best we can hope for it inflation to get reigned back to 4.0%-5.0%, then you need to overhaul your entire model. Now is the time for your experience to deliver value to people who don't know what stagflation is, and how markets reset valuation multiples.
I respectfully disagree, the principles of accounting, mathematics, and economics are timeless. Valuation is always a function of the future earnings and cash flows the individual company can produce on behalf of its stakeholders.here is the Warren Buffett quote from 1994 that I have adhered to:
"“We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. But surprise-none of these blockbuster events made even the slightest dent in Ben Graham’s investment principles. Nor did they render unsound the negotiated purchases of fine businesses at sensible prices. Imagine the cost to us, if we had let a fear of unknowns cause us to defer or alter the deployment of capital. Indeed, we have usually made our best purchases when apprehensions about some macro event were at a peak. Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist.”regards, Chuck
@@FASTgraphs 100% agree - the principles of mathematics, accounting and economics are timeless. I'm simply pointing out that your model fails to properly incorporate exactly those things. You base your ASSUMPTIONS on a time series that is incomplete and that you do NOT take into account internal or external WACC. If you want to say that's intentional, that's o.k. Like it or not, rates matter, and inflation matters, and the macroeconomic conditions and long-dated secular trends that drive them matter. You fundamentally misread Buffett and misapply his principles for "macro" events. He is talking about cyclical macro and singular events, not secular trends and cost of capital, both of which he says matter a great deal in determining what an attractive valuation is.
@@biscaynediver we will be adding metrics utilizing WACC soon, currently in development. Nevertheless, what you our calling my model is simply reporting what leading analysts following the company are forecasting. The historical data simply cannot be argued with because it is factual as presented. The forecasting data is provided by leading analysts reporting to FACTSET. if their forecast change, it will be reflected in FG in a timely manner. The point is micro analysis rather than macro which does not necessarily universally apply.
@@FASTgraphs I never said the historical data was not factual. I said the dataset is for too short a time-series, suffers from recency bias, and was generated during an entirely different cost of capital macro-environment, and therefore is a poorly matched dataset. Why not offer a dataset for other periods and let people choose? The 20-year period you use is an aberration in the larger historical record, and more importantly, is no longer applicable. As for the analyst data, I think people know that it is of notoriously poor predictive value at inflection points. You are merely providing the data - nothing wrong with that, other than if you don't offer commentary about how wrong that data turns out to be at market inflections, always badly behind the curve in both accelerating growth and expanding multiple environments and decelerating growth and multiple contraction environments. Everyone inside the industry knows the chinese wall is a chimera and that analyst forecast data is heavily influenced by the need for investment banking relationships and access to management. There is going to be a lot of value-trap wealth destruction in the coming years because people don't understand and poorly forecast the relationship between cost of capital and multiples, and because although bear markets are characterized first by having high-flying, high multiple stocks taken out and shot, they don't end until the "value" part of the market also gets crushed, and until there is a realization that it isn't just high-multiple, high-growth rate stocks that have their revenue growth rates and net margins contract and normalize, it is "safe-haven" names as well. We were at peak corporate net margins. We are not yet near the median of the range, much less the overshoot that normally happens."
@@biscaynediver "We are not yet near the median of the range, much less the overshoot that normally happens".
Says who ? You just said that analysts are not reliable. Which means that you know better than them.
Pretending to have a cristal ball is a dangerous game, and needs to be done with a lot of precaution.
If your predictions are so much better than the consensus, I guess you must be very wealthy, can you tell us more about that? Do you manage your own fund, or are you the analyst of the year at Goldman ?
Besides ; you are broadly generalizing the impact of inflation on earnings. Software companies, for instance, are proven to adjust their prices smoothly in inflationary periods. Same with.... Pharma, relevant to this video.
i never touch healthcare. no metter what.
I got bored watching half way so maybe he gets there but he mentions nothing about the actual business. Just a bunch of ratios and stuff. It seems this way, it looks this way, let me adjust this number. Let me guess what that will be. If we assume this.
Is this really research? You literally have every new finance bro working for investment firms running numbers. In fact, the numbers are so easy to get, software can do it all in seconds for you. Is this any different than the get rich quick scheme? As long as I buy a stock with these criteria, I’ll make money. It really is very elementary thinking.
Buy businesses. Not tickers.
yes, you could spend hours going through in gathering numbers from other sources. But you enacted the perspective that this offers you in an instant.
@@FASTgraphs that doesn’t change the fact that the numbers are incredibly easy to find. And incredible easy to calculate. After all, we do have formulas that don’t really change. Sure it might take a LITTLE bit more effort to go into the 10-k and divide some numbers or you can easily Google the ebita. It is very intro lvl. If you take any beginner accounting class, they will teach you about the balance sheet, income statement, and statement of cash flows.
Im just still confused how you recommend any business but fail to talk about the company. As far as I’m concerned, you have no idea what BMY does and all you know are the numbers. All you do is talk about the ticker. From one ticker to the next. Nothing about the underlying business itself. Nothing about management, new products, innovations…nothing.
Have you heard of Peter Lynch? Buy businesses, not tickers. You are 110% just buying tickers that look good.
Chuck read the 10K, etc., but the glaring hole in his analysis is: patent cliff