Ted Oakley: Too Much Fed & Fiscal Distortion WILL Cause A True Bear Market
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ส.ค. 2024
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As we enter the midpoint of 2024, confidence in the economy and the financial markets is a lot higher than it was at this time a year ago.
Stock in particular, have had a phenomenal run over the past 7 months.
So it's little surprise that the bulls expect the party to continue on through the rest of the year.
Will it?
To find out, we turn to the experience and wisdom of financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors.
Ted has over 40 years experience helping clients, mostly high net worth families, protect and build wealth through good times and bad. We'll find out how he's currently positioning his clients assets for the coming year.
Follow Ted at at oxbowadvisors.com
#bearmarket #recession #inflation
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Mr. Taggert, I've got a potential Q for your guests. How have you adapted to social change over time. Mr. Oakley made a great comment about the "gamer" mentality and recklessness in option markets, etc. His comment, to paraphrase, was "they just seem to get away w/ whatever these days." It was a profound generational observation. Fourth turning, etc. ; )
Ted Oakley is a class act. Please bring him back frequently.
I always enjoy listening to Ted Oakley's realistic insights. Thank you for having him as a guest speaker.
I agree that his plain-spoken common sense approach to investing will serve his conservative clients well in the long run.
He IS the BEST!!
Mr. Oakley is by far the best Financial Services professional that I love to hear. Very realistic, not flashy advice. The man is a legend!
Ted Oakley is one of my most favorite financial people. I always soak up every word he says. Very insightful and seems like a nice gentleman too.
Ted is A++. Classy and sensible.
Totally
Ted is one of the best! I always enjoy hearing his thoughts. Thanks Adam
I can’t believe people are still talking about the “excess savings” from the stimulus. The average household blew that money a long time ago.
Seriously. What they handed out wouldn’t barely cover a month’s rent and bills.
They are acting like everyone because millionaires with a couple small checks
Stimulus doesn’t only refer to stimulus checks.
The tax relief for employers and ppp loans were big stimulus. The wealthiest again got the most
Also side effects, i.e. student loan forgiveness. That's "free" money in the system.
Ted would have to be in my top 5 people to listen to , his words of wisdom have helped me a lot. My wife and I sold our business of nearly 20 years 18 months ago , we found that we lost our identity for some time and had to find careers to have a purpose in life. I love how Ted mentions being humble in this video and how in other videos he has spoken about peoples ego as being a problem, which I have witnessed from others I know. Another great interview Adam
Higher Interest rates are very good for those who have no debt and just want to coast on +5% returns.
Great guest! Ted is the best!
Ted is Honest and upfront. A rare thing in his industry
I sleep better with an attitude about value in the markets like Ted Oakley’s. Have Ted on your channel anytime. Top quality individual.
Really IMHO we are in the bubble of all bubbles and everything is over valued by at least twice as much as they should be. I am no longer long. I am waiting for the "event" that tell me to go short. Way too much risk at these levels for me.
Ted Oakley is experienced and knowledgable. The problem is there wasn't a single investment take away from this conversation besides 'the market is overvalued and will correct.' It would be great to get investment ideas, other than bearish sentiments. I also tend towards bearishness, so I want useful information, rather than confirmation.
The FED has been printing over problems for decades at this point but in 2008/9 we really crossed the rubicon. A sub 1% Federal funds rate for a decade. Trillions in QE. A 188% increase in M2 in 14 years. They can't do that again without hyperinflation.
I think the actions of the Fed have reduced the perceived level of risk to the point where folks are happy chucking money at stupid stuff as the Fed will ride to the rescue if the market implodes. There is no logic in the pricing of NVDA, for example, but folks keep on piling in as the Fed has their back.
exactly... the real problem is that they will need to stimulate when we go into a recession (debts usually double.. so 65 trillion?) ... which is coming for sure. When I have no idea, we could go up higher from here, but it is coming. We will know when a huge red candle takes out the 5 candles to the left of it on a monthly chart. That is when the bear market (that will last for years) will start in earnest. The real risk is who is going to fund all that debt that the Treasury will need to sell? I don't think anyone does and the FED (buyer of last resort) has to come in and monetizes it (buy it up). That will cause stagflation like we have never seen and will just cause the 10-year yield to go up not down... Which means folks long TLT are on the wrong side of the trade. This is a MASSIVE risk. If it goes down this way folks are going to be crushed. I am ready for it. I am just waiting for that massive red candle. Then I will go short with a protective loss order on the high of that candle.
Mark my words
Fed would do massive qe again with some other name.
Inflation can be contained using government manipulated metrics
@@drajdew1664 This is the risk that I think most folks miss. The FED does not print money, contrary to what folks think. The Treasury prints money. The FED only controls the short end of the curve...ie the overnight lending rates that banks use. Should the encomy slow rapidly (I think it already is) the FED will slam the short end to zero very fast ... but that is not going to do anything. There is a lag of at least 12 to 18 months on policy decisions, so we still have a lot of rate hikes to work through. The economy will be in free fall... the Treasury will need to sell treasuries to stimulate (QE) but no one is going to want to buy our debt anymore because we have maxed the credit cards out. Which means the FED comes in and is the buyer of last resort and this will cause the dollar to drop in value... or said another way inflation to go back up. I think we get both. So we will have a falling economy with inflation... or better known as stagflation. The other thing that is going to absolutly shock people is that the 10 year will dip, when the FED pivots, but only briefly. Then it will go up and continue to go up.. just like it did in the 70's and 80's. This means folks long TLT are on the wrong side of the trade, and all those zombie companies that exist because of artifically low interest rates are done... they go out of buisness and unemployment surges. Less folks have money to spend... economy gets worse. It is a self licking ice cream cone and there is nothing that can stop it now. But there are things that can make it worse. For example say Trump gets reelected he has promised tax rates cuts for all. This will cause infaltion to surge and the dollar to drop... it will also increase the massive debt the US has already. We need to raise taxes and interest rates if we want America to survive. They won't do that unless the bond market forces them too. WE saw this exact thing happen last October... when the bond vigilanties came out and pushed up the 10 year yield past 5%. That proved the stock market can not handle anything above 5%. Look at a chart to see what the stock market did last Oct. IMHO I think the 10 year yield goes over 12% everything said and done. Folks are not ready for that.
Mr Oakley is one of my favorites. Thank you!
I see Ted I automatically watch. Thank you for having him on. Love to hear his wisdom.
Has anyone heard of something called the "Lag Effect?"
😅
How bad is it?
@@DanDang2 we will have wait and see. A lag on the lag effect
Lag effect 🔥 🔥 🔥 🚀 🚀 🚀
Ted Oakley is the best, always wonderful to hear his insights and wisdom.
It's nice to hear insightful wisdom, rather than a hearing some kind of sales pitch, or being pushed into the 60/40 mindset. Thank you for the honesty, and I am willing to bet that at least some financial firms, or advisors hate you for this approach. In there minds you are costing them money. Thank you for introducing me to the real world.
I noticed this morning on the Schwab site for CDs that the rates for those up to a year or more have broke 5%. A couple weeks ago it was the upper 4% range. Maybe banks have accepted that there will be no rate cut for the rest of the year. Good for us investors who can park some cash at 5.4% for 3 to 6 months and wait for buying opportunities.
I bought a 12-month bank CD through Schwab in March, yields 5.20% but has been trading below par since about mid-April. Last week it took another dive, probably an indication of bank stress. Should have stuck with T-bills for all my extra liquidity. Being cautious at the moment, raising cash.
@@staceydevereaux4094 PNC bank has 4.5% or so savings accounts.
Purchase 30 day treasury at 5.375% and keep rolling forward. Compounding interest is a beautiful thing.
@@davewood8985 Yes, been buying lots of them.
Ted Oakley is a great guest and this is a fantastic interview!
Federal Deficit in 2008:$10.3 Trillion. 2024, $36Trillion. Over 16 years the FEDS have spent $26Trillion more than they took in. Of course investors think we are in Utopia.
oh no! the 1 trillion mark was passed under Reagan, 10T under bush, 30 trillion under D. Dump. Lets blame the dems!!
What a charming and insightful guest you had on today. Really enjoyed the show- Ted Oakley is Golden.
One of the vey best, I sincerely appreciate Ted's willingness to share and just the overall grounding that he and his firm demonstrate. Not said here, but it all starts with living within your means, saving and not relying on things like get-rich-quick or other promises/marketing schemes.
Adam, raising your eyebrows has become your trademark when you introduce yourself haha. Keep up the good work.
😯
Thanks!
Huawei is already selling AI boards that are superior to Nvidia's AI boards.
Assuming that Huawei cranks up its production, then Nvidia will start to struggle. The current 85% profit margin that Nvidia has could be easily cut back with the new emerging competition.
Thanks guys!!
brilliant interview!! Thank you both
Stay humble. Such a great guest.
Canada is perhaps the canary in the coal mine. People and businesses are hurting and so we've had our first interest rate drop in four years. Thank you for the cogent, highly skilled and compassionate analysis of a broad-minded economic condition that nudges people out of their ideals and complacency. It is true, one has to have a broader sense of how downturns really impact folks. I am extremely grateful for this episode and all of your thoughtful contemplation.
Very interesting discussion with TED. His realistic assessments of the financial markets is refreshing.Thanks Adam for hosting and asking questions
Awesome video. The best interviews on TH-cam.....Thank you Adam keep up the hard work. MPW=12% dividend, PSEC =13% dividend.
Great interview.
I really enjoyed Ted.
He is so calm with all the craziness going on!
Adam, you finally got your lighting correct. 👍. Ted is always a pleasure to listen to and always so levelheaded. 🙂
Thanks! Next step is to get the new studio background installed. Should happening within the next 2 weeks (or less!)
Always love to hear from Ted.
Hi Adam
You often ask your guests to "come back on if/when they see the markers of the downturn etc which they have tabled. Would you consider modifying that to two things? 1/ what if any are the markers of a crash and what are they seeing around that etc?
They are highly experienced people so if anybody would know if there are such markers they would.know them. Obviously,I think the event will be a crash so would love to know any signs if any by the experts.
Many thanks for your thoroughly valuable channel. It has informed my investment strategy .
Excellent interview as always. Thanks, Adam.
fantastic interview
Thought provoking interview - thanks for sharing Adam
I greatly appreciate Ted because he is just unemotional about this stuff. He uses his experience, instinct, and data to discuss key points and he doesn't pontificate about weird improbable black swan events.
Great discussion. I like the difference between median and mean. When 1 billionaire moves into a homeles settlement with 1000 people, on average they are all millionaires
Exactly! That's why averages, which the headlines focus on, are so deceiving
What a classy gentleman.
Let's go!! I've been waiting for this one.
The key here is “will happen” 100% correct! “When” is key. As long as it fails to happen & this after teasing its beginnings & then reversing it altogether - all of this not once but many times - knowing THAT is key. Not easy at all.
Thanks for your point of view but when is also important
Ted is wise man. One of your best guests
Congratulations for next magnificent interview again. Just one idea - maybe you can share the charts from video to your subscribers email. Thanks again for the great content.
Great episode Adam!
Adam we all love you!
In regards to banking, I have recently heard that the 0 percent down mortgage is coming back. That is one of the programs that lead to the 2007 crash.
FHA has been offering zero down for several years under their first time, lower income program. FHA is now the govt version of sub-prime with taxpayers on the hook
Always look forward to Ted’s interview. Down to earth and measured responses; cool as a cucumber.
(…your backdrop is collapsing…humidity?); we need to get that replaced Adam! Go back to a nice classy wood!)
Upgrading to a new (and classier!) studio background in 2 weeks, or less!
Send Adam channel to 100k LFG🔥🔥🔥🔥
Ted Oakley. The Boss of wealth growth and preservation. Get his books today. You'll be glad you did.
I predict that stock market will drop like a rock, I predict that the stock market will go to the moon, I predict the end of the world, and I will be right on all counts, but without timing my predictions are worthless.
new camera looks much sharper! 👍
damaged by cold weather( event happening ones in 50 years) upcoming grain crops in Russia are worth mentioning as carrying the potential of price hikes for food
Ted is the best
Fed Camouflage was my favorite take away from this "Ted Talk"
Your new lighting looks great, Adam.
I think a better term than "bifurcation" to describe the current state of the economy is "polarization". Just as we are now polarized in so many different ways, what with the so-called "culture wars", political "wedge issues", and all that, we are increasingly polarized in our economy and household wealth. Bifurcation is just the latest term being thrown around that speaks to the same underlying issue of the widening wealth gap and the hollowing out of the American middle class. If the middle class is vanishing, and everyone who was formerly in the middle class would need to leave and go to either the 1% or the 99%, then about 1% of the middle class will move over to the 1% class, and the remaining 99% of the middle class will move over to the 99% class. And, increasingly, an "equitable society" will mostly just mean all those in the 99% class being equally poor and bankrupt.
Obviously a bare market will happen.
Ted works with high net worth investors. When you have a high net worth, it's a lot easier to take less risk and still have really good returns.
You could park high networth investors in dividend paying stocks and have really good returns.
Even with 100k, you can generate around 300 bucks a month in capital gains just in dividend income strategies.
I like seeing people trying to build wealth with only 1000 or 2000 bucks. It's a lot harder to do.
Looking at current P/E ratio for equities in a historical context is misleading, given the rather epic levels of corporate share buybacks in recent years by corporations that make up the lion's share of the index. I would argue that the current P/E ratio has become less useful as a measure of over- or under- valuedness, and that using a more comprehensive formula for measuring corporation valuations may reveal that equities are MUCH more overvalued than they have ever been in the past.
Adam, would you consider formulating a scorecard? It would be nice if we knew who was right and who was wrong.
Just the intro makes me want to look into some long-term CDs. Thanks for providing these great interviews as always.
You're about 9 months too late, but go for it.
There will be many more opportunities.
@@Jeff-gd6mc Yields top ticked last October. If anything, we're on the other side of the trend.
I’m not convinced rates won’t go back up again at some point. All depends on your timeframe. If banks come under pressure again, CD rates will go back up. If you believe rates will trend down, buy Treasuries instead of CD’s and cash in on the capital gains.
@@Jeff-gd6mc you'll be waiting a long time. You missed the cycle
Haha!! That darn Party Bus! It strolls on by with confetti and beer bottles flinging out... It takes patience and courage to wait and stay steady, but often (but not always) you see it on the side of the road, broken down.
The point is that there will be no landing because stocks have reached a permanently high plateau.
The market is still very much in the buy the dip frame of mind. I honestly think the Plunge Protection Team (aka the Federal Reserve) is in there supporting equities and not disclosing. They’ll do whatever is necessary to keep asset prices elevated…
Adam, respectfully, your questions and their preamble are occupying more and more speaking time in your 'interviews', leaving little opportunity for your guest to give of their best and deep dive into their knowledge. Please reflect on this and hopefully change as it is getting more and more painful to listen. It might be instructive to have someone actually measure the speaking times in the interview (host vs guest) to better see this.
Have very much enjoyed your work for some time and you never used to do this. I don't know what's changed.
By all means, do editorials if you must and share your own knowledge - or have someone interview you, as you have done with Sach's Realty - but don't do it in the guise of interviewing someone else.
This is my first ever comment on TH-cam; that's how strongly I feel about it.
The thing is thought, the higher the heights, what even is a bear market? If the market dropped 30%, that would be back at 2022 or something?
To me the entire market seem unmoored, I do not understand it.
Close to 100k !
So close!
The link to the webinar doesn't work.
8:42 am
Wednesday, 5 June 2024
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
Maybe get David Hunter to come on. He is still predicting a parabolic melt up from here.
3rd, 4 June 2024
Ted Oakley = All the letters needed for the word "Today"
will when?
Oakley is how America and people used to be. Class,, ,,,
All these opinions are great but it doesn’t matter. Only price pays!
Of course there will be a recession correction at some point, but the question we can’t answer is how and when. And how much will we lose out if we get that wrong. The divergence between the asset rich and asset poor will continue on a global scale and that will cause the problem as the basis of mutual trade collapses.
Oxbow’s shift in strategy away from 60-40 is more towards hedging against the US$ and excessive public debt. One should have real assets in one’s portfolio today - maybe 25-30%.
Trying to time market tops is a fools errand. Just ask Adam who has been on the wrong side of the market for years now. He wrongly went defensive in bonds and gold, missing out on two years of the strongest stock bull in decades
NO !!! I am going to tell you exactly how to do it right now... markets top and bottom in 6 ways. 1. v 2. double 3. left higher double 4. right higher double 5. flat 6. rounded. It does not matter which one. IMHO we are making a right higher double top right here, right now. The event that gets us out of our longs and short is a massive red candle that take out at least 5 candles to the left of it. If you are an investor, you are using a monthly chart. If you are a swing trader, you are using a daily or 4-hour chart. if you are a day trader you are using a 5- or 2-min chart. It is really that easy. Folks need to be very careful when they make absolute statements. I time the market every single day... by using that method and a few others. This is not all there is to it. My real fear is not for me. It is for folks that believe to just buy the dip and time in the market is better than trying to time the market. The next go round I think we get a bear market that last for years possibly even a decade. folks are too complacent. Will they just hold their longs all the way down? This is why investors are the true gamblers unless they are using sound trading principles ... the longer you are in the market the more exposed to risk you are. Folks need to get smart ... really quick about money / risk management, stop loss (protection), when to move the stop loss to break even, and when to take profits. Nothing and I mean nothing goes up forever. All that said if you are in your 20s by all means just keep buying as things are dropping you have years and years to make up for the drawdowns. the older you get the more risk adverse we need to become. Someone in their 50s or 60s that takes a massive 50%, 75% or what I think is going to happen an 86% drawdown is going to have to go back to work most likely and at a time when there will be no jobs. I am not trying to be a doomer. I am trying to warn folks that we are most likely very close to a top... if they don't understand all the stuff that I just said it is much better to buy short duration T bills at 5% and let things settle out. We will know if we stick the soft of no landing after the yield curve reinverts. It is much better to keep what you have than lose most of it. I wish you and yours health and I wish you and yours prosperity, but I also wish that you and the other viewers here that you don't lose your shirts and pants because you have bought into the mainstream view of not trying to time it. WE ABSOLUTLY MUST TRY TO TIME IT. There is a reason you are viewing this. It is a great place to be. The lag effects that Adam talks about are real and again IMHO are about to hit and hit really hard.
That is a ridiculous statement! Over the past two years small caps and equal weight are flat to down! It’s only been a handful of stocks all AI pumped!
Gold outperformed the S&P tho. A few stocks going bonkers has been floating the whole market.
@@Pangora2 Not true. Since the October 2022 bottom, gold is up 44%. S&P is up 53% and the NASDAQ up 77%
@@bdek68 Keep listening to the bear narrative. Meanwhile anyone holding any basic stock ETF is now up 50% in 19 months
Hi. Love your programs and always watch but cannot understand why each video begins with an excerpt without any context and often not even knowing who the speaker is. Plese introduce the speaker first. Cheers
Pig is stuck in the python
By this time most of the pig been digested, fueling the beast, for a stronger bull market. See how useless these metaphors can be.
Wish it would hurry up. I am a poor slob but I am sitting on a few bucks waiting for the downturn.
The Fed amounts to central fiscal planning. And central planning rarely ( if ever) works. The fact that the Fed has gone to such great lengths to prevent the inevitable from happening will likely cause the results that ultimately occur to be much worse than they otherwise would have been.
I would like to have a liquidity event :)
The Fed warned us that they intended to let inflation run higher (policy change Aug 2021). They didn't anticipate inflation running away like it did, but remember that this is a way for the government to inflate away their debt. So higher for longer (inflation and rates).
My friends and i were talking about "sticker shock" recently. And all of us were telling about restaurant sticker shock
Just bought tulip bulbs. Up 300% :)
A good measure of how primed we are for a big downturn is looking at the duration of the previous boom cycles low real interest rates on bonds weighed against the present duration of the high real interest rates at the end of the boom. To see how capable we are of mediating this, you can add some mixture of "how many tools do we realistically have to moderate this downturn"...
The answer to the duration of the previous cycles low real interest rates is "extremely long and extremely low"...the answer to the second part is "extremely long and moderately high" (though relationally high comparitive to debt levels)...and the answer to the third part is "less tools than we have ever had"..
Not great.
Just a mention in regards to Gamestop, the rally was prior to his posts. In order to avoid the topic of the shorts, the media ran with "guy posted memes" instead of discussing the core issues surrounding the stock manipulation.
Every time you say Lag Effect, we all take a drink. 🤣 (I do agree with you, though, Adam.)
Gulp gulp gulp
@@jasona5806 only three? 🤣
Hey invite peter schiff. Good work!
I love Mr. Mackey mmm kay !
I don't expect as big of a bear market as some people expect. The fact that the dollar is so close to collapse tells me that the bears may buy for their own needs but I think they are going to hold off on speculative buying knowing that if a large crash is about to take place, everything is going to crash lower. They're wrong about a no landing scenario. Greater rates of layoffs are just starting to take off. The medical profession is reporting more than usual nurses quitting. And Florida is reporting peak housing inventory. Those on fixed incomes are loosing their homes. And there are reports that speculate more bank failures are approaching. All of this signals to me that the bears might not be as enthusiastic for a while.
Nvidia's moat isn't the power of the chips they manufacture but the parallel computing platform CUDA that runs on their chips and most developers in AI use. Until someone comes up with a better architecture, I don't see China replacing them anytime soon.
What happened to Wealtheon ?
Great guest Adam ... but it's getting harder and harder for these experts to really tell the truth ... as Adam said, you first have to remember that "you" are the product for most of them ... and they serve many masters (mostly the industry) ... and ... we are headed into uncharted terrain after years of free money and covid stimmy ... I've been bracing for impact for a long time, and like most I don't like the shorts ... but that is my bet from here ... I doubt we will survive the summer without a big glitch/correction