Moneyball Is RUINING Baseball And Getting Players HURT? | John Smoltz | Don't @ Me with Dan Dakich
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.ค. 2024
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Chapters
00:00 - John Smoltz's Shiner
01:35 - Analytics Ruining Baseball?
09:46 - Are Teams Rejecting Moneyball?
13:27 - Switching From Starter To Closer
15:46 - Should The Braves Be Worried?
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Analytics has also ruined hitting. Walk, strikeout, and HR. The batting averages are so low it's ridiculous!
Baseball was more fun to watch when analytics *described* the game. It is far less fun when front offices use them to *define* the game.
You just pretty succinctly summed up exactly how I’ve thought about it. I’ve always been a believer in analytics and it drive some fun discussions and interesting deep dives. But put into practice, it has made the game worse. And the problem is that, because the use of it is absolutely correct from an efficiency stand point, there’s no putting the genie back in the bottle.
For the analytics geeks, which is more valuable, the pitcher who goes over 200 innings, stays healthy and is not always throwing at max velocity and spin rate? Pitchers learn to pitch in the minors, or they should.
I remember pitchers going over 300 innings in a year. Now no one goes 200 innings. Watch the old All Star game clips and notice how much freer and easier their delivery is.
Jacob DeGrom was winning Cy Youngs throwing 94. He became injury prone once he started throwing 99.
This isn't true at all.
@@KTF0 right on!!!! It’s pitching not throwing….but a lot of throwing coaches are brain dead…
I remember reading Bob Feller saying that hea always saved "something extra" for late inning jams. I remember reading Koufax say that he didn’t become great until he learned to accept a groundball out as a good outcome. Loved this interview.
That pitching analytics breakdown by Smoltz was awesome. More baseball talk please.
What analytics did to Baseball is they lost that great starting pitcher matchup to market to fans.
That was a big selling point back in the day when i would see a national game with Gooden vs Mike Scott, Clemens vs Dave Stewart or Pedro vs Randy Johnson. The Braves were must watch as chances were you were getting Maddux, Smoltz or Glavine. You knew these guys were going 7,8, maybe 9 innings and it was a reason for casual fans to tune in. That’s gone from the game now as most Starting pitchers are gone by the 6th inning.
They've reduced starting pitchers to utility players, who might get in 6 innings every 5 days. They used to be some of the biggest stars in baseball. Now to get fans in they have to have gimmick giveaways like "City Connect" jerseys, etc.
Yep. When I used to love baseball, growing up in 80’s. College age in 90’s. I watched a game as much to see my teams pitcher pitch a gem as much as I did to see the hitters have a good game at the plate. Not just homers and strikeouts but real hitting. And I hate the way pitchers are just routinely removed with intact no-hitters/perfect games. Today’s game is the worst product MLB has ever offered.
Analytics has created a great opportunity for orthopedic surgeons to cash in. Throw as hard as you can as long as you can ruins arms. Throwing a fastball at 90-93 % and reaching back for that little something extra when you really need it worked well for a bunch of hall of famers from the 70s and 80s - lots of healthy arms with 15-20 year careers and 200 plus wins with lots of complete games. Seaver, Jenkins, Drysdale, Blyleven, Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Palmer, Ryan, Gibson, Hunter, Guidry all pitchers that were successful with long careers and could pitch with control, ball movement and velocity and getting guys to hit ground ball outs and strikeouts by outsmarting hitters. That is pitching. Today’s throwers aren’t pitchers in the same way. Smoltz is absolutely on target. Don’t need to throw max velocity all the time.
Chris Bassit is a perfect example of less is more. He chased velocity a few years ago and got hurt. Now he has throws 92-93 with like 7 different pitches. Throws the slowest curve in the majors and moves the ball around the strike zone..addìng and subtracting speed
I love the rule change Smoltz suggested. Watching starting pitchers go deep into games makes them more intriguing.
Smoltz is exactly right. The 100 pitch limit is artificial. Not every pitch is equal. Every pitcher and every arm is different. It came about because of doctors limiting pitchers coming back from surgery. Pitchers can't go more than 100 pitches because they are not trained or taught to go more than 100 pitches or through the order more than a couple of times. Pitchers are babied, and they still break.
Bring back the game from the 60’s-90’s. Better balance of pitching, speed, hitting, and more action at a faster pace. Even with the rules changes and a faster game, I’m tired of hearing about launch angle, umpires that don’t know the strike zone, small ball parks, and batters always hitting for the fences. There are too many things wrong with today’s game. A game which peaked about 30 years.
Im glad you are having this conversation. Spot on gents.
John Smoltz is one of the most knowledgeable people we have in baseball... he is spot on
trevor bauer should be in the league he’s been so active and consistent proven on every TH-cam video they are doing him so wrong right now it’s nasty work from the MLB
Baseball has turned into the sport of the nerds. I watch with the sound off and don't watch any highlights anymore due to the over saturation of analytics being discussed
Needs destroy EVERYTHING. Bean counters destroy business, they destroy our food system, politics, religion, baseball, and the NBA.
Bean counter needs typically have a God complex thinking that their genius is enough to manipulate every area of society to their purposes.
For the last 20 years we've heard the analytic nerds tell us when evaluating hitters, the number of K's they accumulate is irrelevant-after all an out is an out. So why is it so important that pitchers have a high strikeout percentage? Also in evaluating hitters their OBP which usually correlates with getting a large amount of walks is all important. But almost always its the flamethrowers who give up the most walks. Shouldn't the most important consideration of a pitchers effectiveness be how many runners he allows to reach base and ultimately how few runs he gives up?
Loose the DH with your starter. Love that idea.
Just lose the DH entirely. The DH is part of the problem in its mere existence. It is a slow pitch softball position.
@@CB-vt3mx PREACH!!!!
I think limiting a roster to 10 pitchers may also solve the present problem of bullpen roulette and attrition.
@@CB-vt3mx The DH lengthens pitching careers. When Tom Seaver signed with the White Sox late in his career he said he would never have pitched in the AL early in his career because of the extra innings pitched when you were behind after the 5th or 6th inning.
I hate pitch counts.
Here’s another one. The bases are the size of pizza boxes and the pitchers throw overs and step offs are limited. Why is nobody stealing 100 bases?
It's going to take time for GM's to realize that a lineup of mostly contact guys with speed with two, maybe three sluggers who strike out a lot but hit bombs and drive in runs is the best way to go. Then it's going to take even longer to draft those contact guys and develop them.
@@mattrinck7503 Apparently you have never heard of Ricky Henderson
@@huckstaunfiltered8200 I saw him play. He's retired now.
The days of a Mark Buehrle consistently throwing 200 innings per year, are gone now and his fastball was around 88-89. I did like Smoltz's stance on the reward system.
The only thing analytics has done to baseball is bring about a bunch acronyms whose meanings I'm clueless to. The thing ruining baseball are the STUPID rule changes and the astronomical salaries. The game didn't need fixing! A clock in baseball? If time is so important let's get rid of extra innings and just say the team that scores 1st is the winner or if 0-0 at the end of nine the team with the most hits then least errors or fewest pitches. Baseball no longer exists, it's Banana Ball now! Don't get me started on the DH.
Excellent discussion. I used to be a big baseball fan. I don't watch sports anymore, and therefore I don't watch baseball either. But honestly, as bad as analytics are, the bigger issue is that not enough AMERICANS are playing the sport and because of this fact, ratings have gone down. MLB needs to figure out ways to divert talents from the other sports and have a few of them come to baseball instead.
Tyler Glasnow said that throwing a baseball is like trying to throw a cue ball. The seams are so low hey are almost nonexistent. To the point where these guys are having to use a death grip to get the movement and velocity front offices seek. Simple solution raise the seams back to where they were in the 1980’s. then these pitchers won’t have to grip the ball that hard which won’t put the pressure on these UCLs.
Not an expert myself but i agree with you i think its the torque on the arm to get the spin rate not the velocity itself. I assume there are various ways to change the baseball to address these issues. and yes, reduce the number of pitchers on a roster.
I'm an "older" fan, so make fun of me if you want. . .BUT. . .I really hate the "automatic" moves, especially pitching moves, that all managers make today, much of the time based on analytics. Being an "older" Cardinals fan, I remember Game 7 of the 1964 World Series. Bob Gibson pitched a complete game on 2 days rest and won that game and the World Series. Today, he would never have been allowed to still be pitching at the end of that game. He would have been pulled by the 6th or surely by the 7th inning. And then, as happens many times today, the bullpen might very well have lost that game and the Series. The Cards manager went with his gut and stuck with Gibson. And Gibson won it. My point is that analytics increasingly takes the "human judgement" factor out of the game. And if things don't work out, the manager can always fall back on the excuse that the analytics told him what to do. So I ask, why do you even need a human manager anymore at all? Just let a computer tell you when and what moves to make with absolutely no input from a human. In other words, just turn real life into a freakin' video game. Oh wow, what fun. . .NOT!
I grew up in the days of the four man rotations. Starters would complete most of their games. They went to the five man rotation and instead of going deeper into games with the extra day off they began pitching fewer innings and complete games began dwindling. Today's MLB, like the NBA, lost me as a fan 20 years ago and I grew up a baseball diehard and coached for over 30 years.
100% agree,
Rule Suggestions: 3 strike rule on Tommy John Surgery
1st- suspend 2 years
2nd- suspend 6 years
3rd- lifetime
1. Tie the starter to the DH.
2. Lower the mound (fewer strikeouts, more emphasis on movement-control type pitchers).
3. Increase the minimum circumference of the bat handle (fewer homers by increasing the bat's moment of inertia, thus decreasing bat head velocity).
4. Soften the ball (more infield plays).
5. Maximum glove size 11.5 inches except for pitchers and catchers.
Then I'll attend an MLB game again.
Analytics is the number 1 reason why I don’t watch baseball anymore. Number 2 is the fkn ghost runner on 2nd base (and the rest of the god awful new rules MLB has implemented). This is coming from a baseball fanatic from about 1993 to 2016.
I’ve now lost MLB and NBA due to the stupidity of the people in charge of those leagues. All I have left is NFL and NHL. Honestly sucks.
Smoltz is spot on. As far as command goes, we see the fallout from the lack of command with more batters getting hit and going down for periods of time.
Good stuff man
Watch how many runs are scored in an inning where there is a walk, HBP, error, WP or PB.
The emphasis on max velocity takes away from a pitcher's ability to locate their pitches or change speeds, which is pitching. MLB has a bunch of throwers. Watch how many times they are behind in the count, walk hitters or hit them.
Slundgr Thank you for putting out the facts! Great interview and discussion. Now, how 'bout we highlight the line drive upper-deck HRs hit by little guys like me! The baseball is now like a golf ball.
@@DAVYMAC Definitely they need to do something with the golf ball they use for the major leagues. It's slick and no seams either. That's why they can't grip it. Do something about the bats. I've used a maple bat in an adult league and it never broke. Make them go back to ash, as the did for generations before.
@@slundgr Great info brother! You are the only one I know that spoke about the bats. I've seen home runs that were hit just above the label on the bat (it should have broken that bat in half.) Combine that with the "loading up slo-pitch softball swing" that too many players are using and the result is higher than normal home runs and strikeouts.
@@DAVYMAC Just look at how many players use hickory or maple bats and the exit velocity off of those bats.
@@slundgr Right on brother! I will look for those maple bats. You use maple bats and you gave us the facts! You are right about max velocity by pitchers. Scouts won't recruit a pitcher unless he has a blazing fastball and the scouts rarely sign a hitter unless he is a consistent HR hitter. They keep trying to manufacture "wow plays" instead of just letting the game develope naturally with so-called small ball. Powers in charge think they can control EVERYTHING. Elle De La Cruz is devastating to opponents when he plays "small ball" but he has big games and the next several games he is trying to hit the ball WAY over the fence and goes into a hitless slump. Then he goes back to small ball and starts being effective again.
1 great show by 2 class acts!!
Money has ruined the game. Ever notice when an umpire makes an errant call which alters the outcome or tosses a player the talking heads all yell “ no one pays to see an umpire”. True, however we do pay to watch a starting pitcher pitch. Millions of dollars and these lamers can’t pitch more than five innings . BTW they still hurt their arms at five innings. How about we get guys who can “ pitch” instead of throwing as hard as they can.
I want Smoltz as my pitching coach!
Move the fences back/deaden the ball. Then the reward for swinging for the fences becomes less, and putting the ball in play becomes more valuable
Consider this: As the game gets into later innings managers shore up the defensive positions. The most important defensive position is the Pitcher. And yet we progressively downgrade the pitcher as the game gets into increasingly critical phases. If you chart most games, the majority of runs are scored after the starter leaves. So, what good did he serve if the flood gates are going to open up? The entire system has been ruined and must go back to the way it was or close to it; relying on a starter and ONLY removing him when he falters.
Pitching opener (innings 1-2), early reliever (innings 3-4) , scheduled starter (innings 5-9, or use closer in 9th)
preach smoltzy!!!!!!!!!!!
I still remember the days when a stater was expected to pitch 9 innings. I now enjoy watching a pitcher pitch 6 or 7 good innings and gets pulled and the relievers blow the game lol
How about the starters aren’t throwing 100% every pitch. You wonder why pitchers have arm issues!! Too many with bad delivery mechanics. Way too much stress on the arm not following through. They you have relievers throwing all high velocity pitches.Also draft pitcher from the cold climate regions . They don’t pitch all year long.. pretty simple less mileage on the arm
Analytics is a direct reaponse to a few teams buying everyone and Small market teams paying no one. Its a deeper salary cap/ floor issue as well.
Love 4 John...One of the all - time great Braves!
I used to be a season ticket holder for 20 years I used to love this game I can’t get through more than three innings today
Completely agree, analytics are ruining both sides of baseball. Thankfully the pitch clock has sped up the game but it's still an unwatchable product on most nights. There's no situational awareness, no team game and no flow to the game. It's just become a glorified home run derby where everyone just plays for themselves looking for max velocities everywhere.
The first change that I would like to see is tying your dh to the starting pitcher like smoltz is suggesting and I'd also like to see the league deaden the ball to create a more contact oriented approach to offense and get rid of these high fly balls that should be outs that carry over the fence
Analytics is destroying baseball as entertainment. I want to see a pitcher get a chance to finish off a no hitter/perfect game/shutout. The game is terrible today.
Amen John Smoltz! Agree with everything he said.
I would go with tying the DH to the starting pitcher and see if that works. The exception being the Ohtani rule. If he starts he can remain DH for the entire game.
Whoa. Great vid. But biggest threat to MLB is the insane movement to turn it into another broadcast product that fits neatly into a 2 and 1/2 hr. time slot. Ghost runners? Limited throws to first? Pitch clock? That last one is horribly unfair to a pitcher at 80 pitches on a 100 degree day. And the DH rule means a pitcher throwing 100 mph balls high and tight never has to face the same scenario in the box. It ain't baseball anymore.
It's not analytics, it the greed of the front offices and players. Analytics are a tool that could lead to player safety, but when people prioritize performance over safety we get what we have right now.
MLB pitchers are throwing harder today than in the past. The number of pitches clocked at 100 mph or faster has more than tripled since 2019, and the number of pitchers who can throw 100 mph has increased by 31% since 2015. In 2023, six of the top 10 starters by ERA and seven of the top 10 closers by saves had an average fastball velocity over 94 mph.
How hard you throw doesn't constitute of how good of a pitcher you are. What happened to the days of pitchers throwing to location and changing speeds to keep hitters off balance? That was real pitching! None of these 100 mph throwers are anywhere near the pitcher like a Greg Maddox, Jim Palmer, Jim Hunter and hundreds of others.
@@jeffwing8083 maybe thats why pitchers cant go as long as they used to
@@jeffwing8083 Yeah i agree with you. But pitchers now are just redlining all the time and trying to throw as fast as possible constantly.
Mr. Smoltz expertise on pitching physiology is appreciated.
What's harder to hit? 100 over the plate, or 85 with movement at the knees on the black?
I was MLB bound until them Sebring Lightning bolt boys took out my knees in the Heartland Championship game of the 7th grade Junior high school round of 64 in 1997. Them good ole days as the center fielder for them Hardee Junior High Wildcats.
5 years ago I said all of the problems would be fixed with game length, injuries, etc, if you said only 10 pitchers can be on the roster, and only two call ups from the minors. I was laughed at. Now they are talking about it.
Smoltz is excellent in communicating the specifics.
A franchise has no motive for preserving a player's career because as soon as his contract runs out he's a free agent and is available to every other franchise.
I love this conversation…to counter Smoltz, the strike zone has has gotten smaller compared to his prime. Hitters have gotten better as they have been given more information and have access to more technology. Velocity seems to be the most useful tool to confuse the mind of the hitter
For a guy who played the game for so long, and says he loves the game, Smoltz doesn't sound like it when he calls a game.
1919 White Sox and reason why there are Comissioners today.
I doubt this would happen, but I say do away with the DH altogether and let the pitchers hit again. This would, at the very least, give the pitchers a potential break by only facing 8 hitters (except Ohtani). And it would bring back small ball (bunting, moving runners, etc) which has all but disappeared.
Analytics are ruining baseball? Wow! Who knew? Any other news flashes you'd like to share.
I guess it's a good thing that analytics weren't around on October 8, 1956, and that Don Larsen was allowed to face Jackie Robinson, Gil Hodges, Roy Campanella and Duke Snider a third time in a World Series game
Or Ralph Terry in '62, especially after 1960.
Trevor Bauer should have been mentioned. The fact that he wasn't is strange.
Nutting should hire Smoltz immediately. I like his plan for Skenes.
I watch high lights now and no longer pay to watch games i have to chase all over perverted cable!
Amen... I enjoyed baseball much more 25 years ago... Pitching duels scratching across runs with base hits...
This type of baseball is boring.
They have the technology collage baseball has to get rid of the inconsistent umps calling balls and strikes, i wonder if some realize the entire plate counts, you'd still need them for calls at the plate and down the lines, you could evan let them overrule the technology but i doubt they would because it doesn't make mistakes it would b nice to know if your playing at LSU, Florida, Georgia or any other place the strike zone would not change, how wonderful would that be where technic and talent would rule the day every day everywhere
Honestly, it's a game. Let the umps be umps, don't stress about it as they do a fairly good job..and let players grumble about bad calls like they've done since time immemorial. There's way too much money in the game, especially at the college level, and people make more of a fuss than is warranted because of it.
@@mattwhite4302 it would make for a much better game, tennis has that technology it hasn't hurt tennis, umps would still make the calls they miss too many, it impacts the game, they're human they're gonna make mistakes, the technology wouldn't at least at the plate. How many times on a close pitch he has to think about it, that's bs if it hits the strike zone it's a strike with the tech., bring it in slowly try it out see how it works, it would take a load off the umpire , he'd still have arguments at the plate, that's baseball,
@@timcastens1150 I really can't change your mind here, and look, I respect where you're coming from..but from my view, that human element is just something beautiful in the game, to me. So..I literally don't care if an umpire has a wide strike zone, for instance, so long as it's generally consistent. And broadly speaking, the stats bare that out where most umpires in the mlb are pretty damn good.
We as fans get annoyed, and that's fair enough, because we're so invested. But again, it's a game. I care about it being fun. Baseball has been a great game for a 100 years, and recently because we as a society have changed we want to make it reflect our faster, efficiency oriented mentality..and again, that's fair enough. I just fundamentally disagree. Let the umps make the calls. It's ok to make 'mistakes' because it's just a game , one in which we've invested FAR too much money in, but a game nonetheless.
@@mattwhite4302 I respect you but you don't have to do things a certain way just because it's always been done like that. I agree it'll never be changed , but teams that'll b sitting at home wouldn't b sitting at home if the balls and strikes were called correctly
@@mattwhite4302 I have no issues with MLB, they do a great job, college umpires are terrible some are swayed by the crowd, there's no denying it , gambling being what it is nowadays, you really have to wonder at some of the calls. Technology would cancel that
Analytics break down in big situations... Been watching it now for a decade. The it factor, the x factor, the grit, there's something that is NOT factored into the analytics.
The Yankees make the playoffs every year and that's it doing analytics.
moneyball only for teams that can't buy big name players.
Great info shit ty glitching
Today’s pitcher’s can’t last 3 innings, led alone 7/8 innings, I don’t care what reward’s you give a team, 100 pitches a game limit changed everything, todays pitchers mechanics are all wrong, that’s one of the reasons, there are more Tommy John surgeries for pitchers, along with stress, plus pitchers are paid huge salaries, so expectations are HIGH, it starts in Club Leagues and High School
Yep
Depends what you mean by "analytics is ruining baseball".
Is it one of many tactics that allow teams to improve the efficiency of their club and playing staff? Yes.
Does it ruin baseball (and other sports) as a spectacle? Yes.
The problem is that analytics is a nascent field. Most current analytics are very crude in terms of explaining the sport. As analytics develops sports will become more predictable and less entertaining.
Fortunate you are alive!
Analytics has and continues to ruin the game. Facts. I miss the way the game use to be. But it is what it is, but the game is def not the same and its suffering because of this.
I have no desire to watch baseball until these issues are resolved.
The biggest miss with analytics is how it has ruined the entertainment value of baseball and basketball. Bottom line, The games are less entertaining.
Certainly it’s ruining the Blue Jays. The manager’s simply a robot. And a stupid one at that.
I enjoy how pitching is these days
the reason why moneyball doesn't work is, fans want players to stay, and so do the players. it just makes g.m.'s make dumb decisions. ops. and war.its just gonna make more casual fans leave, cuz they'll never understand what it means.
Listening to John one would think the golf ball hit his skull.
What's with Smoltz's left eye? Did he get injured or something?
Watch the beginning.
What's with the video quality....I was interesting in this but the the video quality made it hard to watch and understand.
This guy should get metal. 🤪😊
I am a Pittsburgh pirate fan. Please don’t ever mention Tommy John surgery we are a tortured Fan base as it is.
Yep. Plus as others have said, waaaay too much "analysis" discussed in the broadcast booth and of course these days, like all sports, waaay too much politically correct bending over to Blacks and "Hispanics" and the silly "alphabet people". Don't away mad, just go away!
"is" ruining?
They won't do the dh thing it would take too many at bats from Ohtani.
Special rule for a two way player remedies that. Even without a rule you move him to outfield when you take him out.
The most disgusting thing in watching MLB today is the strike zone. Umpires call a terrible game…the strike zone should go back to top of the knee/top of shoulders. Not below the knee to belt. A pitched ball is easier to hit at the shoulders than the knee…Then why is the knee a strike and above the waist is a ball? Why not the waist to the shoulder strike zone…more pitched balls in play….at the same time widen the plate…I’d move the batters box in 3 inches. That would be the width of the strike zone.
Make a point, you go around the horn
i quit watching baseball because of the sissys playing today if i were pitching today i would want to be like warren spahn you couldnt get me out of there if i was winning
Smoltz using Verizon Wireless.
It isn’t ruining baseball. It has already ruined baseball. I haven’t watched in years.
Hilarious how he says " We reached the green in two ", as if that's relevant. 😂 Loved that!
It isnt hard to take injuries into account in analytics. Anti-analytics people are soooo dumb
What happened to getting people out?? They can only do it a certain way now?? I'm about to watch minor league if MLB doesn't shape up
Not only baseball, football, basketball, soccer and it’s creeping into hockey. I don’t like the new version of professional sports. Too many wimps
Bullshit! His wife hit him.
Baseball is dead
I love baseball, when played well its the best drama in sports. However, it has been UNWATCHABLE for at least a decade now. The MLB is a shameful organization and the players are shameful people.
BTW, the internet was terrible. It was hard to follow Mr. Smoltz when he was talking about the reward system, for instance, because things kept skipping while key points were being made. You should have him on again.