John Smoltz explains why MLB's top pitchers are getting hurt with elbow injuries
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.ย. 2024
- John Smoltz and Ben Verlander dive into why there has been a rash of elbow injuries to MLB's top arms such as Atlanta Braves' Spencer Strider, Cleveland Guardians' Shane Bieber & more.
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John Smoltz explains why MLB's top pitchers are getting hurt with elbow injuries
• John Smoltz explains w...
Do you believe the pitch clock is the reason for increased injuries?
No. It's probably exacerbating the injuries though.
No. I think teams are being more cautious with there pitchers
I'm sure the team Dr's don't want to be wrong and rush million dollar pitchers back to soon
I believe pitchers want to pitch tho
@@kellytaylor7699 your response makes no sense . Its like you don’t understand baseball.
Pitch clock isn't the main reason, but I think it's clearly affecting the pitcher and it would definitly be the final push for the elbow injury. So many "ace pitchers" getting hurt at the same time from 2023. If there were no pitch clock, these ace pitchers wouldn't have injured at the same time.
Nope
John's description of training for a marathon in his era is spot on, and a great way to describe it. MLB has to get back to rewarding playing.
The union will never allow anything except 100% guaranteed contracts, so other than performance incentives there is no real way for teams to incentivize playing, and no serious agent is going allow their clients to accept a contract based primarily on incentives if pitchers still get hurt at the rate they are currently.
Players association needs to address this. Owners don't care and will just shuffle to next pitcher
can you imagine how many players would have given up a few years of their pitching career if it meant they were able to perform at an even higher level and make more money doing so? John's comparing two eras of baseball where contracts are literally hundreds of millions of dollars apart.
@@michaelweston2285 frankly, the shorter contracts are better for fans and ownership and they have the effect of spreading cash out evenly among union members, so I really don’t see much support for any radical changes
@@barkerm9 if the owners take a hard stance on not doing 100% guarantees, then the union will have to buckle or not play. And given the amount of money players make today there's no way they would risk losing an entire season going on strike.
Smoltz is one the best to bridge the knowledge gap between old and new school thoughts and analysis. Love hearing him call games and be spot on.
Exactly. When I get into this argument I always point to Verlander in his prime. He could gas it to 99+ but routinely stayed around 94-95mph. Why? Because he was pacing himself. At the end of some games he would increase his velocity, depending on the situation, but he didn’t try to go 80+ pitches at 100+mph.
Nope, he's go 80-90 pitches at 94-95, then hit 100 in the 7th and 8th innings.
And changing your speeds help keep batters off balance. When you feed a batter 2-3 pitches at 90-91 mph then unleash a 98, he’s out.
Everybody just tries to throw their arm out since they were 12 and it shows.
@@kdutch98 what do you mean nope? I wrote that he routinely stayed around 94-95 then would increase his velocity at the end of games depending on the situation. You basically rephrased what I wrote.
@@Balshem i was agreeing with you.
You know what is interesting though guys? Just the other day I say Chris Bassitt dismantle my Mariners with a fastball that rarely passed 93MPH. He was throwing 77MPH curveballs, 87MPH sliders, and really hitting his spots. Another guy by the name of Javier Assad totally looked unhittable with a fastball that rarely topped 94MPH. He was throwing 84 MPH changeups and really hitting his spots. These guys need to learn how to pitch again and not merely throwers.
I was going to say something to this effect before I read your comment. Yes pitchers are all throwing harder than they used to, on average. But baseball still seems like the exact same game. It plays out the same way. Hitters adjust, so what’s the point of shredding arms like this?
I'm not sure Greg Maddux would be drafted today.
94 is a lot
Both those pitchers are maxing out. Not every person has the same top speed of 98. take my 72mph fastball for example...
They should watch Trevor Bauer's videos. He is sharing everything about his pitch grip and training. He hits 99 without a death grip on the ball that blows his arm out. The guys complaining about grip never learned how to pitch right.
Hearing this from Mr. John Smoltz - who never threw a slider until he was in MLB, pitched as a STARTER and second as a CLOSER for as long as he did - means 100 times more than the same message from anyone else.
By the way, as a kid growing up in South Georgia, I was 10 years old when the Braves won the WS. Everyday after school, I would pitch into a pitching net and mimic the motions of Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux. I also liked Kevin Milwood too. Then I’d go inside and watch the entire game on TBS at 7:05 having no idea they would all be in the HOF.
Taking 45 seconds between pitches is a fairly recent phenomenon. The old pitching mantra was “work quickly, throw strikes.” The difference is they paced themselves to last 7-9 innings and only used max effort at critical junctures. A 100-pitch start was much different then than today.
This has been my thinking from the get go. Psychologically, if pitchers know they realistically only have 5-6 innings, they're going to go maximum effort the whole time. Knowing you might have to go 7-8 innings would naturally lead you to pace yourself a bit.
yea and the game is completely different, smaller strike zones, better prepared hitters, no more shift. pitchers need to be on their A game every pitch, very, very difficult to be a command pitcher nowadays, u cant blame pitchers for chasing what it takes to succeed nowadays
@@lavs8696 it def seems like there is going to be mixed feelings about that. I get that it’s harder to be a pitcher now but also it makes the game better. Forcing guys to be under a certain time and honestly making the game a little bit easier for hitters makes it better for baseball fans. But I also can agree that if there was incentives to go longer that would benefit the injury crisis. But regarding how hard it is to be a pitcher, it’s hard to be a damn hitter too.
@@noahmarshall8625 i agree, i was moreso just listing the realities, not really grievances. I enjoy the faster paced games, tighter (correct) strike zones, and as a result more offense/more flamethrowers. Definitely a better game to watch. Only downside is you will lose tons of pitchers. Who knows, they may go the way of the running back in the NFL soon, apart from a few genetic freaks, the norm might be get a good 4-5 years out of them then dispose of them.
100 pitch start ?!? 125 minimum. I had games in which I threw 200 pitches. I never had a major arm injury and I threw hard with conviction. Kids today don't practice enough and don't pitch as.much in games to build upntheir arms. Pitching in games is what built up my arm strength the best with my mechanics. The compact motions and leg whip kick finishes are killing the arms of these kids. And I don't hear anyone talking about running anymore, or at least biking to build up their legs
Whats funny about this is I said this on numerous articles on Facebook and got ridiculed for it because I'm not an expert. I pitched 20 games or more a year from age 18 through age 46. While I wasn't a pro, the wear and tear of throwing 150 innings a year with a velocity of 85 mph for a long portion of that, takes its toll on an arm. I've pitched since I was 6 years old and I'm now 47. The chase for velocity is absolutely an issue. I wasn't taught a curve ball until I was 15 years old. Now kids are being taught to throw curve balls at age 8. My son when he was 11 played in a tournament where the top team was missing its 3 best pitchers. Two of them were in rehab from Tommy John at age 11 and the third was hoping to avoid surgery. Age freaking 11 and having TJ surgery. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine would never get a look in todays game. Stop blaming the pitch clock, the elbow and human arm was not meant to constantly throw 95+.
You're right!
I know someone very well who had Tommy John surgery at 15, in high school. And it was a few years in the making, trying to hold off on it. Pitching through the pain.
I know the major cause in this case was the COACHES not paying attention to the pitcher's health.
If one pitcher was losing it in a game, just bring up another pitcher with a few warmup pitches.
Use that relief pitcher 3 games in a row.
Go to a weekend tournament and go through all your pitchers twice.
No ice available. No strength conditioning. No prehab.
And all this was in 12U-14U and was even worse in high school.
How are kids supposed to last through HS, college and the minors?? 🤔
I think it's better these days to not even let your kids pitch at all. Then in HS or so, start practicing.
I know that's probably too late to start pitching, but there are KIDS with permanent shoulder damage, scraped shoulders, torn rotator cuffs, holes in their elbows (Tommy John), missing tendons in their wrists(Tommy John donor tendons) amd it's sad.
There are guys in college who can't even THROW a ball without pain. I know a guy who's now a father, and he can't play catch with his kids because the throwing motion hurts. He started learning to throw lefty.
I was topping out at 95 at 17 years old- Tommy John needed by 19 years old so instead of coming back throwing harder post Tommy- I came back at low 90s and dominated D2 and minors until I hurt my back and retired at 33.
Another guy who “almost made it” but got hurt. Lololololol. Do you teach middle school gym class now?
I want to see the best pitchers pitch and to do it for a long time. Stoltz is spot-on with his analysis, it is management’s fault, so let’s get it corrected before we lose everybody. It is in the best interest of the game we all love. And Ben you were right in saying that it bothered you to see guys throwing weighted balls and such to get stronger or get more velocity. Thanks for the discussion and I love John Stoltz! Great announcer and great pitcher!!!
Great discussion! Thank goodness someone is speaking sense about this topic. It's not rocket science. If you go max effort every pitch you are GOING to get injured eventually. The arm is not meant to hold up to that amount of repeated stress over time. They're literally teaching starters to throw like closers now.
10yrs? Hate to break it to you but it's been going on for almost 30 years. As a late 30's former pitcher I watched it happen through all stages of my life personally. Being a kid in high school as a left handed pitcher hitting mid 80's all game, winning all the time, and lowest era every team. It's been going on for wayyy longer. The guy throwing 3-4mph faster but couldn't hit the zone, no movement, flat trajectory, and losing constantly got put above me simple because of it.
A lefty throwing mid 80s and can pitch would still get high level college offers 20 years ago.
I think the major difference is that, back then, sure velocity was valued more, but now it’s valued pretty much exclusively. There’s no room in today’s game for the low velocity but high accuracy/movement type of pitchers.
great interview. Crazy to think how dominant he was in the mid 90's yet doesn't feel he'd be competitive today. Something is broken
I think he feels that he wouldn’t be given a chance to compete because he didn’t max effort 95+ every pitch even though he had it in him to touch 100. I remember when he was the closer for a time and he would consistently hit 98-100+ with a nasty splitter. Then when he returned to the starting role, he sat 92-94 and would hit 96-97 here and there with the splitter and slider combo.
@@Juan_C84yup. I grew up watching him in ATL. He was the hard throwing SP which is crazy bc guys today routinely hit upper 90’s almost like it’s the standard. He’d be pretty mild by comparison!
@@patrickd8770 Definitely. Smoltz was the power arm of the trio of him, Maddux and Glavine. Maddux and Glavine were geniuses at dissecting batters and made them look foolish even without the upper 90s fastball even though Greg could hit 93-94 as he was coming through the minors but then figured out using location and changing speeds gave him the recipe for success. It seems nowadays pitchers coming up pitching that way would be turned away so fast.
@@Juan_C84 yes and Glavine was usually low 80’s but untouchable when he was on his game. I wonder if that’s even possible today ? I can’t think of anyone who keeps it that low today
It's an old conversation about spinning. I remember when I was a kid the curve was discouraged because of the stress on a young arm.
I taught myself to throw a knuckleball in little league and they threw me out of a game because the ump said I was throwing illegal curveballs, which honestly was ridiculous because it wasn’t like I had Wakefield movement on it. But yeah we were never allowed to throw curveballs until high school level. Middle school it technically wasn’t allowed but they never enforced the rule
@@dylanhawthorne4842 thats because throwing a curve can cause an arm injury that damages the growth plate in your elbow. You don't want that to happen, but especially not before your body has stopped growing
@@Calibrownsfan happened to me, started throwing a nasty Nolan Ryan curve ball when I was 11 and threw my arm out 4 games into my senior year of high school. Grew up playing short stop had to play second cause I couldn't throw from short lol.
Messed up my elbow, throwing curve balls as a kid
As a Sports Scientist and Sports Physician, youth are dissuaded from throwing curve balls because of the stress it places on growth plates, ligaments, and tendons in and around the elbow. The difference between pitchers today and years ago, was that with the advent of free agency, team management sees players as replaceable pieces, teaching them to throw as hard as they can, to spin the ball as best they can, until their bodies fail, than the team will replace them with a constant supply of young guys throwing 98 - 100 mph. Don't bother teaching hard throwers how to pitch, because they will leave the team in free agency, so ride them as hard and as long as you can, then replace them when they injure or leave in free agency. That is the philosophy of team management now.
I was a pitcher in 80/90/2000s and spin rate was not a thing; I am astounded at how much they can move a ball laterally now but I can’t understand how they can throw like that. When I was a junior you couldn’t throw a curve until you were 14 and it was there to protect the player.
there was no technology to measure it so it was not quantifiable, but everyone knew the more you spin a ball the more it moves, new tech just allows you to have instant feedback and make spin improvements.
Most of the huge increases in lateral movement (sliders and sinkers) you are seeing is no based in spin rate. It is the effect of seam shifted wake. They are making it move just like Maddox made his 2 seam front hip lefties.
Also a big problem is travel ball for kids. Kids have thrown thousands of innings before the turn 18.
Thousands?? 😂
@@bradleyhayman2682 you play a tourney 30-40:weekends out of the year. Total pitches per year 2000 at 9m and 10, 3000 pitches 11+. Average inning is around 15 pitches. So maybe not 2000 innings but well over a thousand. That’s an insane amount of stress on these kids but they do it to get scholarship. This is the norm for the sport now. Colleges look to the travel ball circuit.
Travel ball is the number one reason no one can change my mind on that. Kids should not be playing baseball as much as they are not only is it hard on their arms. It’s hard ontheir whole body. Plus, I thought pictures have always thrown as hard as they can throw.
Agree and i think this is the case for most kids now. The body can only take so much wear and tear.
Good point. Some teams like drafting pitchers from cooler climates as they haven't been throwing as much
Great interview here with a Braves Legend. Nice work Ben!
Smoltzy is spot on as always. It’s not rocket science. It’s common sense.
I remember Smoltz was a 92-94 MPH pitcher. They moved him to the pen and remember seeing him touch 96-99 as a closer. Funny thing is he then retired shortly there after. He was always the braves power starter, now he would of never been drafted. Several of my team mates use to say you had to throw the ball as hard as you could every pitch, I never did that and could go later in games.
He could dial a 98 for a key inning or two late in a game... even as a Starter.. I think he had superior genetics though. Some guys just don't get hurt as much. Randy Johnson was like that too.. He could pitch 94-96 for most of the game, but in key late inning gas it up over 100. Also, hitters are just better now. The art of hitting comes into play as well.
@@alcoholya hitters are definitely forced to adapt, I think with the invention of the new trajekt pitching machine the hitters will slowly balance the scale.
Smoltz still would have been drafted, come on now. They just would have ruined his arm.
I played baseball till I was 20, threw a lot of balls. Had some arm pain around the elbow, played Here and there in summer leagues. Started playing Dodgeball, where you would throw it the hardest u can a million times a night. A soft nerf ball with spin and curve etc. I sustained doing this for 3 yrs..then my arm said stop doing this and cracked right in half. Was like a firecracker in my ear. Arms cant sustain all that force like John says. Now I can hardly throw a ball without pain. Obviously I didn't have a mlb Dr do my arm but the proof is there, arms can't handle all the things pitchers are doing now
Pitchers are now like NFL running backs, flame them out and find another. Muscles progressively get stronger and 'twitchier" and the tendons and ligaments holding joints together just cannot keep up with the increased torque they are subjected to. And while I hate the pitch clock, I feel it has no bearing on increased arm injuries.
Thanks for hosting him. Every time he opens his mouth I learn something valuable.
This is an amazing take by Smoltz. As a physical therapist I've largely seen this effect on younger populations who develop arm injuries largely as these analytics have bled into youth leagues and these kids are playing year round without any significant rest. The human body has limitations...whether in adults or kids. The governing bodies of baseball and coaches need to protect their players, and owners should be more interested in protecting their investments.
Pressure on kids from the day they enter the sports pipelines. Batshit crazy schedules and batshit competitive vicarious parents. Highly evolved training programs intended to extract every last ounce of energy from the human body. Data, metrics and analytics just to make sure we put as much pressure on everyone as possible (even though good research has been done, especially in football, showing most metrics are useless at predicting game performance). Its to the point where the ONLY question on my mind at the start of every season is "Will my team get destroyed by injuries this year?"
John is 100% right, and the trend on the dramatic rise in velocity paralleling increase in elbow injuries can be traced back several years. However, for all his griping about people blaming the pitch clock, he's leaving out something important... It was the MLB Players's Union, and many of the pitchers, who pointed to the pitch clock. It wasn't MLB or random talking heads who linked the injuries to the clock. It was the union, at the behest of its members, and specifically the ones who throw the ball, who are the only people John says he'll listen to.
There is blame all around (way more to those responsible for kids now suffering such injuries), but no blame on the players? Of course the players deserve some blame. The very reward system that's in place was put there in no small part by the players and their union. It's the most powerful union in sports, and its sole reason for existing is to look after the players and their interests vs the owners. They have to take responsibility for protecting their health and career longevity as well, not only chasing larger pieces of the revenue and increasing salaries.
The pitch clock came out to counteract all the ads and commercials that caused the games to be longer.
Bingo. It's all about money.
The arm is also not made to keep throwing month after month after month. All players need at least 4 months off of no baseball activity simply to allow the body recover. This is also another major issue with players today.
I slightly disagree. It's not good to try throwing your pitches all year round, but it is good to just play catch in the off-season. Not trying to throw as hard as one can. Not trying to throw breaking pitches. Just playing catch, like kids do with their dads.
Meh look back a century. MLB players pitched way more throughout their seasons. Than barnstormed all over the country. Some had second jobs. Because the pay wasn't enough. Look at some of the hall of fame pitchers. The god awful amount of innings they pitched. Back when there was no surgery or knowledge to fix anything arm related. Back than they pitched not throw. They had usually multiple pitches in their bags. It was alot of control and changing speed. Also alot of pitching to contact. Thrusting their defense. Managers knowing the game shifting the defenders. Maybe shift a center fielder up. Because you know the odds are the contact will lead to a shallow fly ball to center. The problem is to much on throwing hard and spin rate crap that don't matter.
I just can’t imagine there are people dismissing John Smoltz when it comes to PITCHING. Guy was HOF starter and HOF closer.
Expand the strike zone to the actual zone from way back...chest to knees. This takes the emphasis off velo as the hitters cant live on dip and drive mechanics. A fastball at 93 at the chest is just as effective as 99 at the belt to knees. This is the grand equalizer.
100 % agree. The result would be more strikeouts less scoring MLB no way wants that. Would rather sacrifice arms.
Underrated comment.
I was thinking even left to right expansion. Make the plate wider. An inch on both sides would be a tremendous difference.
@@86bryand Verticality is one thing, but changing the basic dimensions of the field is not okay (including the recent enlargement of the bases).
How would that slow down pitchers. If a 93mpb fastball at the chest is as effective as a 99mph fastball at the knees, pitchers will just throw 99 at the chest.
I made a comment below about Nolan Ryan, who threw as hard or harder than anyone today. And he pitched entire games, and he did it for 27 years. A number of people responded that Ryan was an outlier and that he didn't spin the ball like modern pitchers do. I think everyone gets that Nolan Ryan was unique in many ways, but two points.
First, most starting pitchers back in the day took pride in completing games. They pitched 9 innings. They weren't pulled after 5 or 6 innings. Pitching complete games is naturally going to produce more muscle endurance. Maybe, the attempt to preserve arms is actually lowering their endurance.
Second, Nolan Ryan wasn't the only pitcher in the era before spin was everything to throw hard. Look at Bob Feller for example. More importantly, as far as I know, no one was measuring spin rate back then, so we have no idea how fast they were spinning the ball. They had to have understood spin to some degree or else there wouldn't have been so many different ways of scuffing the ball or putting substances on the ball.
Smoltz knows more about pitching than I do. I'm just wondering if there are other issues at play - including a lowering of endurance due to the modern habit of pulling starters so early.
My brother graduated from college in the mid 2010s. He averaged +/- 90 as a starter, and could push 93-94 throwing all out. He had a great changeup, consistently got guys out, always had good WHIP and ERA numbers. Teams, scouts, agents were talking to him and when the draft rolled around, they ghosted him. Had a teammate get drafted that threw 95 and couldn't hit the zone.
John Smoltz dropping knowledge. First time I've heard him say this
After playing pro ball for 6 yrs, tearing my labrum, having 2 surgeries, spending 2 yrs in rehab and eventually leaving the game bc of my injury this is my perspective.
The reason is that the organizations do not listen to Ortho docs about proper rest times between outings. Science says do less with more rest and MLB says do more with less rest. Pitchers have become expendable. If one goes down, there are thousands ready to jump in. Injuries will not go down until teams start to properly value the science, which in turn is valuing the health of the pitcher.
When a pitcher is Fighting to get to the top and stay at the top, there is no room to communicate fatigue. If you do, you will be labeled as less motivated, weak, etc. There is definitely a blacklisting present.
When it comes to arm health, the priority should be a routine created from research not by the motivation to win.
This has made it all the way down to youth ball. Kids aren't taught to pitch, they are taught to throw hard. They aren't taught to be a batter, they're taught to swing for the fences.
That was a great interview!!! Excellent work! Great video! Thanks
John Smoltz makes a great core point that gets overlooked, and is grossly underappreciated. That is the role of incentive. If you understand the incentives involved it is far easier to understand the behavior in response to the incentive. This applies not just to baseball, but to nearly everything.
As rules change, the people that make them need to understand there will be causal behavior changes in response to how the incentive and reward system changes. And if they do not understand there will be second and third derivative changes in response to the rule changes. First, do no harm.
This starts long before MLB. Think about this: what would happen if composite bats were banned from baseball at every level, and every kid playing Little League had to hit with a wood bat? Model that out and think about the impact on behavior all the way up the line.
John Smoltz understands this. He's a student of behavioral psychology and reward systems, just as much as a Pavlov or a BF Skinner. Do the MLB decision makers understand?
Well said. Incentives is everything. Bad incentives lead to bad behavior, if you want to change behavior, examine the incentives.
may we say --- Professor John Smoltz ... did it all +++ ... now the Premier Baseball TV Guy ... wish I could watch His Every Game ... on & on forever John .... always a pleasure !!!
My favorite pitcher of all time Kerry Wood, that spin rate was beast on that breaker and for sure why he had TJ and was never the same after. A healthy Wood/Prior and the Cubs fortunes may have been quite a bit different in the 90's
I totally agree. Pitchers are throwing the ball way beyond their capabilities and hurting themselves in the process. But by all means, keep throwing the ball harder, okay?!
The Phillies currently lead almost every pitching category this season as of this date. That’s all 5 starters. Out of those starters, only one guy consistently throws mid to upper 90’s and that’s Wheeler. Nola, Suárez, Turnbull and Sanchez all top out around 93-94 mph and they throw of breaking stuff. It can be done with smart pitch selection and a good game plan. The only thing I worry about is this new Sweeper pitch that puts extra torque on the arm…
I think it’s lack of Cardio. This is a problem for all positions. Position players can pull something running to first cause they pump iron but don’t keep the body loose because they think static stretching gonna work. Running also helps pitchers heal in between days. Wish I knew this sooner but I remember hearing about James Shields habits. he threw gas and had a healthy career because he was running after every start. Once I started doing that I noticed it was way easier to heal in between starts. No im not a ML and don’t throw anywhere near 100 but it was a significant difference in how long soreness lasted…
Oh interesting I never heard that.. a new pictures did a lot of running but I didn't know it helped with soreness. How much distance would you recommend let's say 11-year-old to run after pitching?
Increases blood flow to the body, increased oxygen in the blood. Makes sense!
Uh. Hard to buy that argument. But blood flow does aid in healing
players do cardio, just not as much as the old school coaches tell them to. It's standard protocol for pitchers to do some running after starts for bloodflow to the shoulders.
@@my2l they all probably don’t do anywhere near enough. Which makes my point.
I figured Smoltz would have a great take, and I was not disappointed. He even mentioned how the organization that develops their pitchers to balance stuff with health and endurance can gain a competitive advantage.
What are are the arm care exercises you and smoltz would recommend?
More physical therapy each day but not sure even that would do it
terrific conversation, gentleman!
Smoltz hits the nail square on the head. “Spin rate”. WTF? “Exit Velocity”. Nonsense stats made up by fantasy geeks. You don’t need to throw 100 mph to get guys out if you can change speeds and locations. No one pitches anymore. They throw.
Well said
not true, the best pitchers can pitch better than ever now, except they throw everything max effort. If you look at stats walk rates have remained the same or lower than 30 years ago. If an 88mph arm could really be a top level starter we would see one in mlb, except that's not really possible in today's game.
This is an excellent short interview. I'm starting to think that Ross Atkins (Blue Jays' GM) has purposefully signed and traded for pitchers who have a lower chance of injury, and are more traditional 'pitchers' as opposed to today's 'throwers'. I am thankful he's done this (as it could easily be an attractant for recruiting), and hope some other GMs do the same.
Honestly before strider got injured my wife and I were watching Chris sale and Charlie Morton’s first starts and we noticed how much more selective they are with harder pitches early on. Maybe it’s the vet experience or the game they came up… but compared to strider who basically has the weight of the entire baseball world forcing him to push 98mph+ from inning 1 through 6. Can he do it? Hell yes… but not surprised he pushed it past the point.
Maybe the mlb needs to incentivize creative revisions to pitching roster- enable 1-2 more bullpen guys or give teams reasons to think differently about the role of the starting pitcher. But it ain’t the clock. Biggest conflict is mlb wants hits, homers, and excitement. Tilting any advantage back to pitching hurts ratings… I dunno, maybe this is a dumb idea but I definitely agree - it ain’t the pitch clock.
I would think 1-2 less bullpen arms would incentivize longevity of starting pitchers.
@@Fetch0491-2 more is what I said haha. Basically make it easier for teams to pull in the 4th or 5th. Might be crazy, I’m not an expert. But seems the standardization of the 6 inning starter is possibly a cause here when combined w smoltz’ point around analytics. Id want to learn more about the history of the “starting pitcher” cause I honestly don’t know the background on how we got to the current bullpen roster rules
@@yateswebb If you have pitcher pitch less, then they will throw harder, because they can. That's part of the problem. The reason pitchers pitch less isn't because it keeps them healthy, but because they can't go as long while throwing as hard as they do. The obsession with velocity led to smaller pitch counts and less healthy pitchers.
I used to read books on pitching from HOF pitchers, and they all said they didn't throw as hard as they could all the time, because they were expected to pitch deep into the game and for many starts in a year. But they could dial it up in a key spot.
They also said that changing speed was the key, because batters can time up to even a 100 MPH fastball, if that's all you throw. Whereas if you have a 90 MPH fastball, and a 70 MPH Change or Curve, you can get the batters off speed with either one.
Next step is allowing both hitters and pitchers to challenge balls and strikes. Umpires missing calls has an effect on the strategy involved in an at bat. If you fail your challenge, you lose the challenge. It's really not that big of a deal with the technology that has been available for 20 years now. More Greg Maddux types would emerge as successful pitchers because they would be master tacticians. Those types of pitchers cease to exist because when an Ump misses a strike, and the hitter has all the analytical training, it's impossible to get back ahead unless your stuff is filthy. Shortening the longevity of a players health. The answer is technology and always has been. Make the change.
Amen
Baseball has taken the art out of pitching and replaced it with power. No longer is about control, command, pace and longevity. Starters go 4-5 innings max, and GMs are ok with that due to financials. The incentives need to change to before behavior changes. Youth sports need to adapt as well. Too many young men suffer arm injuries serious and otherwise at 12-14.
They would rather have pitchers only pitch 3 innings as hard as they can, and increase the roster size to 25 pitchers, before they actually address the real cause.
I've been watching and listening to MLB since the 80s. The pitching philosophy back then is always this: 1) Kids need to train their arm strength since Little League, and guess how kids train arm strength, same thing with work-out, by pitching more and more! Little League pitchers around 90-100 pitches, high school up to 100-120 pitches, and minors/college there is no pitch count because by now your arm is fully trained for a full game (average 150-180 pitches). Now with "analytics" Little League is 40 pitches, High school 60 pitches, College/minors 80 pitches, majors 100 pitches. You didn't train up your arm!
Second, like John said, pitchers never throw 100% all out right from 1st inning. Take Dwight Gooden, his max is 100 mph but he never pitches that high in the game. In the first few innnings it's in the low 90s, and then at most 95 mph, you never go all out to hit that 100 mph, that's exactly how you blew up your arm! This is said in the 80s and 90s but the pseudo-science analytics came in pitchers are dropping like flies. 80s and 90s you get maybe ONE pitcher out for season, it's mostly arm soreness that will be fixed in 2-3 weeks rest. BTW, pitchers in 80s-90s pitch around 150-180 pitches per game.
We need Smoltzy to be the commish
I think its the arm slot alot of pitchers are taught to use. Where the pressure is more on the elbow than the shoulder. But you gotta think Nolan Ryan spun it on a 4 day rotaion instead of 5 seven to 9 innings and came out the bullpen in-between at times .I'd like to see a comparison between extended arm pitchers vs 90 degree type arm pitchers with frequency of elbow injuries. Also got to look at how they grip and release the ball some also compared to the arm slot they use.
At some point MLB teams will no longer offer pitchers long lucrative contracts. There are just too many injuries and the recovery time is a year plus. Or maybe just a few teams will and that will be worse for MLB.
It's really about the economics: if the teams can afford to treat pitchers as disposable, they will. If it costs too much, or if the talent pool dries up, that will force change. Sad but true.
Wow, I'm not even a fan of baseball, but I love listening to this guy.
Dude knows baseball. Anyone who’s played knows what he’s spewing is legit.
Truth. Smoltz is real
I work with installing and maintaining conveyor systems and we don’t run mechanicals at 100% Capacity. Everything is set at 80% capacity to for best performance and longevity
The voice of reason.
I remember that era of Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine as a fledgling Bosox fan. For me, Maddux was a fkn magician. He just seemed to be unplayable. Loved watching him pitch against any team other than the Red Sox.
Listened to the Odd Couple podcast a week or two ago and Chris Broussard floated the idea of limiting the amount of pitchers a team can use in a given game. Let's say the number is 5. You can only use 5 pitchers for the day. That would greatly emphasize starters going deeper into games. They would pitch to contact more, preserve more energy for later innings, etc.
Dumb
@@bnegs521 dumb how?
@spacelion4763 and if you use the first 4 the 5th guy stays out there and what if he is having a bad day. Look Chris knows nothing about baseball
@@bnegs521 Forces managers to plan accordingly. Again...the problem right now is starters being used for 5 innings...so the mindset is having them throw as hard as they can without regard for them needing to go deeper into games. We need to FORCE pitchers to stop throwing hard to every single batter and pitch to contact more. Limiting the amount of pitchers a manager can use would FORCE that change.
Sounds to me like you're the dumbass here
@@bnegs521 If you use up all your pitchers, you get fucked. That is the point. It's to force pitchers to pitch longer, and relearn how to pitch without just throwing as hard as they can every pitch.
Having 20 relievers is what enables teams to be so reckless with their pitchers health.
While still a professor, I attended a conference where Mike Boddicker was the guest speaker. It sounded like John Smoltz and Mike Boddicker spoke the same language regarding pitching. That was about fifteen years ago.
Teach your kids the knuckleball!
It is probably easier for a scout up to GM to look at a radar gun almost exclusively rather than look at how much natural movement a fastball might have. John is right that when they start running out of arms they(management)will likely adjust. That being said, I would love to see more knuckle ball pitchers!
Parents making their kids get a Tommy John surgery in highschool is another symptom of the "throw the ball a hundred miles an hour" to get into the big time.
Glavine Smoltz and Maddox. Can you imagine having those 3 greats for all the years they had them. As a Ranger fan for life I was even a Braves fan due to the greatness of these guys.
Teams need to stop paying the flamethrowers. Jacob DeGrom is a perfect example. Tons of talent but absolutely useless to his team. And there paying him 30+ million a year. Pay the guys that stay on the field and can pitch, example Chris Bassett.
I think that some teams like the Mariners are battling this by having their pitchers throw a much higher percentage of fastballs. 4:50 Huh... It was nonsense and now it's some percentage of a factor? Listen, when you throw a baseball as a major league pitcher, you're reaching some (very high) percentage of the torque it would make to break the elbow on EACH PITCH. It's the margins around that, the small percentage areas, which result in the injuries. Smoltzy is one of my faves all time and I take his word that there are much bigger factors at play here, but I think allowing a guy to just swing his arm around and let it rest a few extra seconds is KEY.
i'd rather watch a rerun of john smoltz pitching than a new game. any day of the week!
Same.
Today, they are developing “throwers”:not pitchers. Pitchers like Koufax, Seaver and Gibson and those of their generation had plenty of heat but knew they didn’t have to use it all the time! Location, ball movement and outsmarting hitters was just as important in getting hitters out as velocity. I have coached youth baseball. I coached my pitchers to throw their normal fastball at about 90-92% velocity. That left a lot for reaching back for something extra when they needed it. Never had a kid with a sore arm in 10 years of coaching. These things are gone from MLB with the new throwing philosophy: complete games, 20 win seasons, 300 wins (probably also 200 wins) and 20 year careers for pitchers.
Can you get into what happened with Nolan Ryan when he was president in the Texas Rangers organization? He wanted to work more on extending guys innings etc. and I know there was a lot push back from players agents etc. I was very excited that he was trying turn the game to having guys go deep and getting rid of pitch counts.
Simple facts here. Parents this is why you should not be letting your young kid be throwing hard breaking stuff too early. That’s also a recipe for your arm being worn. He should’ve talked about that. These young kids are being asked to throw hard sliders and curves at such a young age it’s starting the decay early.
the thing is, there's a difference between "actual velocity" and "apparent velocity". much like stars; some of the brightest stars we see are not the biggest or the brightest, but appear so due to their proximity. in fact, they may appear much brighter than stars that ARE much brighter. in the same way, a 94 mph fastball may appear 99 mph depending on prior pitch location, prior pitch speed, pitcher motion, pitcher timing, etc etc.
if you don't believe me, ask mookie betts about how tyler matzek struck him out on 3 straight heaters down the pipe in one of the biggest AB's of his career. he was throwing "gas", which hitters used to mean "it looks too fast to hit when you get in there". the numbers DO. NOT. MATTER.
Nolan Ryan wasn’t human
This is very true
@@FlippinBatsPod right?!
He was the exception, not the rule. Also, he used his legs very strongly in his windup to get the whole chain going. His arm was basically going along for the ride.
God the author life gave him strong tendons and ligaments. Thats the key is to work on developing stronger tendons and ligaments in the off seasons. I believe doing Isometric exercises and weight lifting will help in this area. Nolan Ryan is a great example of this.
He was a one off. There will NEVER BE ANOTHER
Schmoltz is right but we're still missing 1 obvious omission. To many starters don't even wind up anymore and it causes them to put to much pressure on the shoulder/elbow instead of using their body weight for momentum and let the arm come partially along for the ride. Bob Feller said he didn't throw as hard as he could on every pitch. He saved it for when he really needed the heat. Gee, I wonder what his average fastball clocked in as. Fundamentals don't change, location, movement then velocity. Yea I'm (Old get off my lawn guy!!!)
Breaking ball pitches 85 mph+ have increased tremendously since the early 2000s and can be a factor along with velocity and spin rate
I appreciate Smoltz's insight and clear analytical mind. He came across very persuasive here.
Pitchers need to start training for endurance with the new rules. No more throwing 100+ on the gun with 93mph sliders. Back to focusing on location and pitch selection. Reason Maddux is one of the best to do it. And scouts/management need to start looking for that and drafting it.
I remember one practice I was throwing hard and had a bunch of pain in my arm pit. Coach sat me for 3-4 days, no throwing and the pain went away. Always wondered wth happened.
Never happened again, either.
Smoltzy!!!
truly appreciate your passionate input.
I’m still waiting on a two half season. such a great idea.
You still on the completion committee? Your input regarding the health of players truly needs to be heeded. It is dangerous out there.
for example Dustin May and Bobby Miller.
John's credibility is golden. The powers that be need to listen up.
I trust John Smoltz
I was throwing breaking balls at 10 years old playing against teens and up. If i was sore i layed off and used other pitches more. All pitchers know what they can handle and how they feel.
Nolan Ryan threw the ball as hard or harder than anybody today. He pitched entire games, and he did it for 27 years.
But he didn't spin the ball tbe way they do now. Fast ball, change and curve.
Some guys are outliers. Ryan was able to throw extremely hard and snap off an unhittable curveball for 27 years without an injury, he's an exception.
@@NotFadeAway522 Back in the day Tommy John was the exception. Tom Seaver was the rule.
@@johnshepherd9676 It was all in his mechanics. Pitchers don't run enough today. Seaver,Koosman &Ryan ran in the outfield every day.
@@philstaniscia7103 The mechanics of spin put stress on the elbow. The more spin and velocity the more the stress and higher rates of injury. There is more emphasis on bio-mechanics today than in previous eras but the bio-mechanics emphasize maximizing performance and not longevity.
We have transitioned from a game of starters that can go 7-8-9 innings and closers for 1-2 innings to a game of all closers going 2-3-4 innings. My elbow is ruined from pitching too much one season when I was 12. Now in my mid 40’s I have excruciating pain and need surgery. Just to sleep at night. That’s a lot of damage to a lot of arms that won’t make the big show and earn millions.
I love to see a starting pitcher like Stryder, but am done with the endless bull-pens, and instead when the starter is done go to a position player. 5 man pitching roster. Pitchers hit, no DH. I want to see all round players.
Agreed. Bring back real baseball. I think this has a chance to happen, but probably not through existing pro leagues. It may happen by baseball being reinvented from the ground up through groups like MLW, Blitzball, etc.
We have that, it's called little league.
the amount of throwing players have done even by the time they are 22 has got to have something to do with it, too. My buddy's 12 year old throws like 4 game innings a week, year round, plus side sessions and private coaching. You can't do max effort, spin rate etc. forever, and when you start doing that daily when you are in the 6th grade, it's hard to stay healthy into your 20s
It’s no wonder that baseball has gone completely for analytics, when there are billionaire owners who have made their billions through financial analytics, and are completely focused on the bottom line. I’m not sure what the way out is, because so much money is riding on all of it. But, the game was much more interesting to me, when the best pitchers were almost all starters, and they took the hill expecting to go the distance.
As a very casual fan I’ve been saying this for years. There are two categories of pitchers, those who have had TJ and those who will. And it’s due to technique.
All of the pitchers that I remember being dominant actually performed better when they reduced velocity (Maddux, Pedro, Big Unit, Verlander, Kershaw, Grienke, etc.) and increased control, movement, pitch sequence, etc. More emphasis should be on actually learning to "pitch," and not just "throwing."
1000%. You'd think that is what the coaches would be for, and the young players want to throw hard. But it seems like all the coaches and parents just want their kids to blow out their arms throwing gas, instead of learning control.
This is a great point. As an 80s kid I grew up believing Nolan Ryan threw every fastball 100 mph. Probably made a career being blessed healthily throwing high 80s, low 90s fastballs easily, crazy to think he kept up a large velocity every pitch over a 2 decade career
Want a solution, try this one on for size.....Make home plate larger. Call the strike zone higher and lower. The emphasis would be on control and location, not so much speed. Alternatively, you could limit the number of pitchers per game (3 maybe?). That way, you would be forced to find guys that could throw 7 to 8 innings per game every time.
To this day fast ball, good change up can be the most dominant combo of pitches and can provide a long healthy successful career
When I was a kid the only person I had heard of having "Tommy John" surgery was Tommy John. I'm sure there were others but it certainly wasn't as common.
Some possible solutions...
-Deaden the balls a bit or move the walls out a little bit.
-Require teams to sign pitchers to longer contracts... maybe if the team needs to pay them longer they'll want to keep them around longer.
-Pay for a study that studies arm longevity rather than peak performance.
Man, what a great presentation by John!
Makes me think Nolan Ryan (a guy who did throw 100 for 20+ years) was a complete freak with the perfect body for throwing hard.
When starting pitchers aren't expected to go past 7 innings, they're trying to get as much into every pitch and striking out as many batters as possible. Instead of the managers willing to give up a few more hits and even runs to win the game with their offense.
We have to talk about pitchers like Greg Maddux and Tom glavine. Control and placement... Check out Greg's highlights. Rarely any of pitches were over 90 when he struck out hitters. Tommy had that nasty curve. Smoltzy had that cutter at 90 to jam hitters.
The physics says that the increase in mph requires an increase in force per the square of the increase in velocity. Assuming the distance of force applied is constant. It’s not linear folks. Going from 90 to 100 is not an 11% increase, it’s 23%.
There was a former pitcher who promoted a natural throw for pitchers. I can't remember his name. I think he played for the Dodgers back in the day. Anyway, he is probably popular now!
Studies has shown that arm fatigue is the first problems of ucl issues. If the player’s inflammation is not addressed and they go out again trying to throw 100 again.
I don’t know if this is the answer, but I think it would be interesting to reward SPs for going long. Maybe SPs team gets a run if the SP makes it to 7th inning.
No, that would just be a gimmick. It would corrupt the integrity of the game.