The Most Bullish Thing That Can Happen | WAYT?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ส.ค. 2024
- Join Downtown Josh Brown (CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management) and Michael Batnick (Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management) for another episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about the biggest topics in investing and finance!
Thanks to YCharts for sponsoring this episode! Visit: go.ycharts.com/compound to learn more!
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►00:00 - Intro
►03:04 - Breakout for Beta
►11:36 - Stock Picker’s Nightmare
►19:18 - Best and Worst First Half
►27:19 - The Last Bear Standing
►32:52 - High Earner Migration
►38:00 - Sky High Earnings Estimates
►42:17 - Make The Case
►48:07 - Mystery Chart
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions and is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See additional disclosures: www.ritholtzwealth.com/podcas.... “Likes” or other comments are not intended to be endorsements of Ritholtz Wealth Management, or their employees and are not compensated.
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Show Notes with links to the articles that are discussed would be a fabulous addition!!
Josh is on point on stock pickers market. It wasn’t hard to pick stocks of companies that have the most impact in our everyday life. They almost cover every sector appl, msft, ma,meta, amzn, cost, goog, …. These would have been an easy pick
Half-backs. People move to Florida, then after a few years move halfway back home to be closer to kids and grandkids. They end up in SC or TN.
I hate misreading words.
In Japan, there’s a word for that called “U-turn.” Basically, you’re from a rural area like Nagano prefecture, but you live in Tokyo for work. You get sick of all the concrete and asphalt in Tokyo, so you try to move back home, but there are no there. So you move “halfway“ back home, perhaps to someplace like Saitama prefecture which is the New Jersey of Tokyo.
That correction prediction tomorrow looking pretty solid hahahah
7:10 seriously thank you for explaining beta
Agreed! Helpful for us investing / finance newbies!
Absolutely no chance people will leave Florida for NY.
Yup, esp considering the high rent, high taxes, and far left politics of NY
Josh is sounding more and more like Christopher Walken.
Always fun, always a banger episode 🇺🇸
Thanks!
This is one of the shows that I make it a point to watch every week
Appreciate it!
My fav show
Best financial hour since Wall Street Week!
Josh is the modern day Lou Rukeyser
You all are the best! Including Ben and the rest of the team
Thanks for the info on beta
JT Marlin reference was great. I almost spit out my coffee with a big lol.
Another great show. Missed the live but just finished watching now 👍🏻👍🏻
You guys are the real deal
Re: people moving to lower income tax states. Was there data to show the income levels of the people migrating to lower tax jurisdictions? It seems to make sense that very high income earners would move because they'll save 6, 7 figures in taxes. I wouldn't think many people would move to save, say, $20K/yr in taxes. But in the end it is destructive to try to keep lowering tax rates to attract people and raise your revenues. If others decide to play that game it becomes a race to the bottom and no government can afford anything anymore and get massive debt. This is what we've been seeing for a long time with corporate tax rates dropping around the world to attract companies to set up there.
Josh, I work for a pretty expensive county in the Northeast and it is reversing. Our population dip flattened in 23 and is swinging up sharply now. (Not Nvidia swinging up but meaningfully up)
Best pod on TH-cam for stocks. Good work.
Appreciate it!
Im here
Thank you
Your show deserves to grow. You provide so much value. And we appreciate you guys. Sincerely
42:10 Everyone’s in the bull camp. I’m long but, that quote scares me….
No way. Still many out there screaming crash and recession.
Who'd a thought a show on finance and markets could be so entertaining while being informational. You're touching lives boys!!!!
Love it
Great episode. Love the respect the team has for Technicals.
🥳 Y charts!!
Saves my commute!!!
I just keep buying the QQQ’s. Wake me up in a decade.
IMO Mag 6 (Tesla is just off in its own world at this point) will become the value of the next 10-15 years with their high margins, moats, balance sheets and free cash flows beginning to allow them to do buybacks and dividends to increase shareholder value given their size isn’t allowing them to move the needle much and they certainly can’t grow through M&A with all the anti trust scrutiny they’ve attracted. Small and mid caps likely end up outperforming large caps over the time period, just given the extreme amount of consolidation and inflows over the past 5 years and eventual lower rates will support it. Perhaps I’m wrong, who knows.
Nailed it ^
Growth will of course moderate, but I think big tech is likely to get even bigger. Just because we haven't seen 5, 6, and even 10 trillion market cap companies yet doesn't mean it won't happen. It can and it will. A matter of when, not if.
Can they keep growing earnings 20%+ a year (or wacky stuff like 100-200% a year for Nvidia) indefinitely? Of course not. But between enormous free cash flow for R&D and buybacks, an ever increasingly digital world, cloud computing, AI, and all the other growth avenues, I think an earnings growth CAGR of 10-15% for many years to come is not only possible but likely for the big tech names.
Not saying there won't be new rising stars and new mega caps we can't forsee yet, there always are. But the idea that all of the incumbents will soon fail or their growth runway will run out just because they're big doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
There's a couple billion or more people living in a low tech, mostly not digital world in developing countries. There is still a ton of room for growth globally, even with existing software and hardware, and with these companies spending more on R&D annually than most small-medium sized nations (each), who knows what future innovations there will be.
I agree with the premise that the tech giants will probably be steady-eddy value stocks one day with nice cash flows but little growth. But, I think it's as likely I'll be an old man by the time that's the case as it is that it'll be in only 5-10 years or something.
Just my two cents.
good job guys, keep up the good work.
Big 150k, Grats yall
Thanks!
😂 Goldman CEO DJing in the Hamptons
Congrats on the 150k its going to compound even more!
Congrats on 150k!
Thank you!
I think the most common thread with all of these stocks are the width of their moats. MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, ISRG, META. There are few more in the respective sectors I would consider CAT, JPM, CTAS, LLY. WAYT?
27:32 😂
Even though I own alphabet and Microsoft my best performer weirdly has been Costco not an AI play
Amazing shirt on Batnik. As Central Banks the world over inflate away their respective sovereign's debt, High Quality stocks, High Quality Real Assets (both as Lord Seigel himself said a few shows ago) and I add, High Quality crypto ALL HAVE TO GO UP!!! Stay long the good shit, everyone! 💣💣💣
Congratulations 🎉
Thank you!
13:00 but if the rest of the stocks usually catch up with the winners, that counters your previous point of sticking with momentum
Downtown Josh still got it....pulling a crowd of 150K and more ahead. Congrats :-)
Timestamps please
Did medical equipment/supply companies project growth from the COVID catch-up and likewise with claims? Not following the healthcare leading ratios from the acute care hospital perspective
Momentum isn't the same as beta though, is it? Sometimes overlap but not always?
(High beta would be industrials and financials vs tech leading momentum?)
Hey, you guys deserve the 150k.
Would like a deep dive just on the Financial Sector. The expected % profit increase is amazing.
I can’t comprehend how that much money has left California and in not have any affect on real estate prices…
I live in Burbank CA, you can not buy a modest 3 bdr, 2 bathroom house under $1 million. I hope more people leave, I want to buy a new home!!! It never even went down 2021, 22, 23. I don't know where those figures are from but you can't see it. I have friends that went to Texas and Florida. They are back. The Texas people said their taxes were higher than here!! How. Florida people said it is nice in very few areas, and the humidity is crazy. Also, they said the bugs. Lizards,alligators, and most of all , hurricanes are hard to deal with, coming from California. I guess to each their own. I know Josh is a little bias, he is building a second home for his family now and he needs to hear real-estate market in Florida is strong. Don't go on TH-cam and watch any Florida real-estate influencer. They are panicking about no hurricane insurance for the state. Interesting tines we are living in.
@@loucenn.4267 ya, here in orange county it’s like 1.2 for a decent home around 2-2,500 sq ft. I look at some of the houses for a million and ask why anyone would pay that amount for what they are getting. You figure people Woomera have adjusted to what a million dollar house would look like that quickly….but here we are
I agree with Josh. This has been the easiest market to pick stocks. I keep scratching my head trying to figure out why anyone would be underweight big tech
That airbnb looks great. Id for sure stay there. Ground floor? Did think that was possible in europe ahah.
Josh, I want a cap like yours,please?
those financials you showed... you need to show 2 year chart, where boa, citi, wells are all higher than the current 52 week high. Add a comparison jpm vs bac, you'll see what I am talking about.
Also, the recent Odd Lots podcast with Warren Mosler (episode titled "MMT's Godfather Says the US Government Is Spending Like a Drunken Sailor") explores a theme I first heard in the popular financial media by Josh Brown--that interest rate increases can be stimulative/inflationary. The episode explores the idea in more depth, and my understanding is the particularly problematic issue right now, according to Mosler--more than just high rates--is the current amount of deficit spending (7% for example) which leads to the massive interest payments on the enormous debt (less problematic with smaller deficits in low single digits), and that is pumping money back into the economy (via debt payments) while the Fed meanwhile tries to slow the economy with interest rates, which just increase the payments on the ever larger debt, and so on.....Perhaps economists and others assume the interest payments are not spent readily or something (but it is going somewhere--airlines and cruise ships seem full?) but it might be interesting to explore more on the Compound, Animal Spirits, or have Mosler on the show (who apparently was also a race car driver/builder which adds color).
Advice to viewers: Go to settings, set the playback speed to 1.5X. They won't sound like chipmunks and you can take 13 minutes off the time of this episode.
The real time problem is that The Compound is so must-listen, so information dense you sometimes have to rewind a section.
Professor Jeremy Siegel, TC 148, case in point. TC 147 and TC 146 also.
And pay attention.
Gassman checking in. Love the fun chatter and investment wisdom. It fills in the gaps to my knowledge base. Good job!
Josh Brown for the W
because earnings increase due to inflation and injection of liquidity, that's a side effect, which stocks needs to catch up the valuation. The question is earning increase by x % yields y% in stock appreciation, often times had larger appreciation in valuation. The outcome would be 1) stock stag until earnings catch up, like in the 70s, or 2) valuation comes down and correct like 2006. Injection of liquidity adds a step function to the valuation, but the earnings trajectory (productivity) should be similar rate.
16:30 He's not wrong, just shut up and keep buying. Enjoy the ride!
Isn't SMCI the biggest winner this year and not NVDA?
Not in S&P *100*
Congratulations on beating Gareth Soloway to 150k subs 🎉💪
Congrats JB MB and the whole team 200K subs soon 🤘. David Kelly much more interesting to listen to than Marko at JPM.
I like your interesting accents.
whats up fellow OG subscribers
Notice the obvious trend in high earner migration. People (along with their money and businesses) are fleeing high tax, high regulation states for lower tax, more business friendly states. It's not rocket science.
Not saying everyone needs to be a Republican now. But maybe caring something approximating more than 0% about the tax and business environment of the State should be a priority for these blue states that are slowly, but consistently bleeding their economic lifeblood away.
The 0% thing sounds hyperbolic, but from an outsiders perspective, I can think of exactly zero reasons to bring myself or my business somewhere like NYC. The fastest growing markets in the country are also the most business friendly. Thr declining states tend to be the least.
Local governments should probably work on ways to make their State more attractive for business other than "I was born here and want to stay". Hell, Wall Street might not even be a monopoly anymore one day. Texas wants in on that too.
good podcast
JC, most talented ? Hmm
Cockiest by far
People moving to Florida just in time for the worst hurricane season ever?
Tom Lee can do it
and or if then while. loopy AF
Intel is up 11% in the last week
I would def fade florida. All my friends with a college degree have left fl for blue states including the ones who typically vote red
Until further notice, this is a Bull Market
😂 buy them both and shutup😂
Every week I buy more of whatever is the lowest percentage of my portflio and try to keep everything around 10%. Please what could be my safest buys with 400k to outperform the market in 2024?
Lmfao fund managers i beat them all just buying SPY 5 years ago
Nobody is leaving Florida or Texas to go to a Liberal State like California or NY. NO WAY IN HELL.
lol we don't want those people anyway
Yea, I'll move to FL or TX for a year, take all my AAPL and NVDA cap gains then move back to CA ;-)
Reddit market cap is less than 1% of Meta’s. 10-bagger in 5 years
The beta issue hides what I consider to be the underlying issue.
Many U.S. firms have international competition. Even their domestic market has international competitors.
Not so much with the stocks you mention @14:43. Does TMSC compete with NVDA? Somewhat. Is there an operating system that rivals MSFT or AAPL? Not really. An overseas competitor to Amazon? I just watched a YT episode of some folks who live on a very remote island. They only get internet via satellite. During the episode, they mentioned how long it takes for them to receive their Amazon orders. Whaa? 'Google' is a worldwide verb. The addiction that the rest of the world has to Facebook would amaze American 'addicts'. There are several examples of U.S. firms which have no international competition, which appeal to a broad base of consumers. And they are the super-worldwide-7-billion-people/customers growth stocks.
Where did I go wrong in life, Josh is only 3 yrs older than me and I’m barely worth 8M
Joe Biden 2024!