I would argue that Denise is one of the likeliest winners to ever play. If you put her on any season, she is probably going to go far. She's personable, she's physically fit without being imposing (and hence immediately targeted at the individual portion), she's strategic, and it took her getting forced out of the game because of an idol deadlock in Winners at War for her to go. Denise was burned out in Winners at War by the end, but I think it had less to do with the game and more the egos of returning players causing that strife.
By the end, it was GOING to be Malcolm or Denise winning. And I don’t think Macolm was a big hurdle. He shot himself in the foot. She was about to take him (only then, would he be a hurdle at final tribal)
I can't stand that Jeff hates Survivor Marquesas and Vecepia as a winner because his bias of his bad experience at the location its just so annoying Jeff can't see what literally everyone else sees Vecepia deserved to be on WaW for sure
The same thing pretty much applies to “Guatemala” since that season was also filmed in a rough location and Jeff was biased against Danni because he wanted Stephenie to win. Then again, you have seasons like “Africa” where the location was rough but Jeff loves it anyways even though his favorite player Lex gets voted out at final three.
It's weird to think that if Russell had even an ounce of self-awareness and/or empathy (or at least the ability to convince a majority of the jury he had an ounce of self-awareness or empathy) he might've been a back-to-back winner.
Having the top 2 youngest and oldest winners in the top 6 is kinda funny I think, but also says a lot about the amount of life experience (or lack thereof) is needed
@joshvanklomp Kenny WAS playing a legit impressive Social and Strategic game UNTIL that blunder on the Corrine vote. His whole game just crumbled from there. Matty wasn't terrible either.
Matty was arguably the person with the best odds of winning against most combinations of finalists. Marcus probably too, but he was booted so early it’s hard to tell. Then again, the Onions were so bitter they were never going to vote for Sugar (who played the best game but completely tanked all of her winning chances - the OG Russell Hantz) and refused to admit they got outplayed by Susie (who was a pretty integral member of her alliance for the midgame). I’m a little surprised Amber wasn’t on this list. While it’s fairly accepted that Amber really did earn her win, at the time most everyone thought she just rode Rob’s coattails. She also survived arguably the worst position to be in ever (the production-rigged swap) where she could’ve just been a footnote. Yes, Rob leveraged his pregaming with Lex, but still, Amber needed to put in the work.
I really don't know why people discount Gabler so much (especially comparing him to Bob, because aside from each being the oldest winners on their respective seasons, there's very little comparable between them). If anything, Gabler's game mirrors Sandra's first game almost to a tee (right down to being one vote away from a perfect game). That sort of fly-under-the-radar, divide-and-conquer game where you aren't a major physical threat but you have strong social bonds and insulate yourself in various alliances and never get tall poppy syndrome, and know when to cut your losses *is* the optimal way to win Survivor, especially in the new meta. That's why I think that Gabler's game is the most easily replicable of the new era, and that style of gameplay wins championships more often than not. That's why Sandra was able to win twice. Put Gabler in an all-winners season with the rest of the new era winners and I think that he goes further than any of them, provided that his body doesn't give out on him.
@@devondonato4609 In the show he straight-up tells Owen his planned F3 involved Owen (with the assumption that Cassidy was the other). It could be that he would've accepted going to the F3 with Jesse/Cody if they brought him along, because at least that gets him to plead his case, but he also planted the seeds with Jesse and Cassidy both that Cody and Karla were playing similar games and would be funnelling votes from them. We actually see that conversation in the game. I wouldn't go so far as to call Gabler a mastermind of the game, but he had extremely strong self-awareness of his place in the pecking order, and that's a key component of the game to know where you are, and when you should strike/make a move. Too often we've seen people shoot their shot too early and wind up going right after.
In my mind Gabler was most vulnerable at the first tribal, had he not gotten that temporary idol over Dwight I really think he could’ve gone over Morriah(not to be confused with Marya, Moriah, or Maria)
@@XanderMatthews-nv9zf The fact that he straight-up offered to sacrifice himself to play the SITD and then didn't cop a single vote because Elie (his future nemesis) thought he was a better ally long-term than Morriah is a testament to Gabler's social game. Gabler had his alliance on lock in Baka early on.
Honestly would love to see Fabio make a reappearance. Yea, some low points for Nicaragua, but his win was so different from most others and it would be cool to see an older, more mature version of him play again
Tony has got to be the most surprising winner, just due to the fact that it was an all-star season, especially all-winners. We didn’t need to base our predictions off any editing, we already knew everyone. I was in a survivor draft for fun of seeing who could get the winner, and Tony was 19th out of all 20 castaways picked. I think the only one picked after him was Ben.
Chris from Vanuatu was even more unlikely since he totally sucked at the first immunity challenge that the men lost - he should have been the first boot if not for "Hey, there's 5 old guys but only 4 young guys" basic math strategy. If Chris was a woman, Jeff would've repeatedly said "C'mon WOMAN!" during that challenge instead of "THAT'S how you do it on Survivor."
Chris I think was a VERY likely winner. The EOE people talked about exactly what it would take for one of them to actually win and Chris did all of it.
Wrong Chris we're talking about in this video....Peridiam is talking about Daugherty, who was the unlikeliest one of the F7 to win Vanuatu, and yet he did
Your discussion about alliances crumbling was pretty poingnant, I recall one time I was doing my own study on alliances and I found out that an alliance of 6 is almost garaunteed to explode, and in such a way that someone from outside the alliance could eek out a win. I think it would be a really interesting thing to study, the alliance structures and how they tend to work because each number seems to bring a different psychology to the gameplay
If you look at "The Six" alliance from this current season, it was a good idea, but it imploded immediately because Tim was targeting Hunter, because he didn't want to vote for Ben who was the only non-Six member from his original tribe, but Hunter was in The Six and that pissed off Q, so then Tim became the target and was voted off. After that, all of the other members got picked off with now only Charlie and Maria are left and they're going after each other.
@@alexpoage1078 Nooo you just spoiled me haha, but yeah, the bigger alliances usually implode but six is the weird sweet spot where they fracture in a way that lets someone else actually eek out a win from the outside, it's so interesting. There's a really interesting trend with them all 4 Person alliances usually are the most stable 5 Person alliances tend to peel like an onion 6 Person alliances can implode with the highest chance of losing 7, 8, and 9 are pretty much too big to fail, and in the implosion will still result in the person who was in that original majority winning
@@alexpoage1078I was thinking of that same alliance! Although I think it was less likely to work than I think you do because the bonds we're rather flimsy, especially between the three who were brought in and didn't meet one another until the merge. I also think it's VERY worth noting that Charlie wasn't even an official member of The Six; he just became an honorary member because he was effectively a package deal with Maria. Which feels super weird in hindsight considering how that ended.
I think Sophie is a win no one expected. Coach being at the end felt like a layup. Glad he fumbled and Sophie came back for 40 showing it wasnt a fluke.
Yeah but Sophie is not an unlikely winner I’d think. Put her on any season and I think she’d have a good shot at making it to the finale most of the time, if not winning.
I think a moment of Jenna using strategy was when it was down to her and Heidi being voted out next. Jenna told people that she was weak and tired. The opposite of Heidi who was showing off how strong she was. When it came time to vote the group felt it was more important to get rid of Heidi because she was more of a threat and they would get Jenna later. That bought her time and the group continue to take out the strong targets feeling she was not a treat. I think that is a very good strategy. I also think she's never given credit for that.
I agree about Chris U. He gets bashed because he came back from the edge and won, but he honestly isn’t an unlikely winner, even on other seasons. He actually seemed like a very capable player who was likeable, athletic, and USUALLY knew when to make moves. He had winner potential from the beginning, and while he did get lucky that the edge existed on his season and that the final edge challenge targeted his strengths, I think he would’ve been a solid contender on many seasons, and we’ve seen many guys like him either win survivor or become runner-ups.
It sucks Chris from Vanuatu never came back for Winners at War. The fact he survived after the first challenge, let alone, after Chad was voted out was crazy. I know Probst is still salty about him blindsiding his girlfriend Julie, so he does want him to play again.
If you had told me that Tony would be the second two time winner, beat 19 other winners, and made it to the end without receiving any votes before Winners at Wat aired, I would’ve said you’re crazy
Chris Underwood had probably the strongest rookie performance ever on his season of The Challenge. So strong it's made me appreciate his survivor win a little bit more and while I doubt it ever happens would actually like to see him play again. The Edge of Extinction twist just ruins everything it's around.
Adam Klein - so many bad strategic moves. There was always some other scapegoat that kept him from going home. **Thanks for Jeff's pre-game analysis of Spencer. When I saw Charlie's audition video for this season, I immediately thought "Pre-game Spencer 2.0". And Charlie has turned out to be a delight.
Chris won Challenge USA 2 as well while constantly being a target on that show, too. So I fully agree with Peridiam’s assessment of Chris on S38. Chris can win on any Survivor season that has EoE or something similar to it.
After winning The Challenge USA, it's clear Chris Underwood has always had solid chops to potentially do well in these shows. Maybe that's why the Wardog targeted him in the first place. He KNEW Chris would be trouble down the line.
Here's a quick list of 10 unlikely winners from the top of my head... Vecepia, Sandra, Amber, Parvati, Bob, Natalie W, Natalie A, Gabler, Sophie and Erika. Some of the other unlikely winners received edits, but these players edits made me guess their placement in their respective seasons. Sandra gains notoriety for doing this TWICE. I was astonished by her wins, both times, but then players like Tony etc they were likely winning their season.
One person I would have included in this list was Michele Fitzgerald. The jury didn't get it wrong, but Aubry was totally going to win it had it not been for the fact that Michele won a unique challenge that allowed her to remove Mount St. Neal from the jury. I think with Neal at final tribal council, Aubry wins. And this was the only season where a player was able to do this. I would actually not object to doing this again in future seasons. I also disagree slightly with your ordering. I would have had Chris Daugherty much higher on the list than you had him. I also find it interesting that Erika won season 41 after people on her tribe tried to throw a challenge to get rid of her.
The jury never gets it wrong. The game is to make to the end and convince the jury to vote for you. Every winner is deserving. Yes... Even Natalie White.
I agree! Though, I would like to point out that post season in koah rong if I am remembering correctly there were a couple jurors that came out and said they regretted voting for michelle over Aubry.
@@konnorstever7776 Gabon also had a couple of jury regrets (and if I'm remembering correctly, Micronesia too), but that doesn't matter. The game would be an entirely different beast if the jurors could see the season before voting.
Tony was my favorite player after his first season but after winners at war I think he’s not just my favorite but arguably the greatest player of all time
i could be misremembering but i think i remember tony in an rhap interview saying that he took a look at the cast of game changers and recognized he was never going to win so he sandbagged that season with an eye toward lowering his threat level in a potential future season.
We also need to acknowledge that Janu played a huge part in Fabio’s win. Fabio won by 1 vote on the back of two players that quit, who only stayed in the jury *because* of the Janu precedent. Nobody else actively quit during the jury phase, so production was forced to follow what they did in Palau.
The fire-making twist was there for his benefit. If that twist had been introduced a season later, Ben gets voted out at 4 and Chrissy wins the season and potentially replaces Ben in Winners at War
@@alexpoage1078 YES. THIS MEANS BEN IS MORE DESERVING and Chrissy a LOOSER. And she would have lost against Devon for sure. Devon was well liked - maybe except a sour Ashley. But he would have had votes 100% from Ben, Lauren, Joe, Desi, Cole. Devon, except the Ben votes, was on the right side of the votes. Actually including Ben (who played idols). But rewatch this season and Ponderosa and you will see that Devon was extremely liked by everyone. He didn't antagonise anyone from the jury. Chrissy did
@@alexpoage1078 I'm gonna stop you right there, because Chrissy was never winning that season, twist or no twist. If anything, we should be talking about how screwed over Devon got, since he, not Chrissy, was the likeliest of that F3 to have won had the twist not caught everyone by surprise
Doesn't Ben make sense for this list too? His early game was good, but his late game hinged on (normally) unlikely idol finds as well as surprise firemaking at the f4
I'd disagree about Tony. Due the the lopsided nature of most of the winners being from more recent seasons, all the players pre-20s were targeted first. So that's eight of 20 people right off the rip who weren't going to win WAW. That's better odds than any season. Plus, Tony had the benefit of crashing and burning in Game Changers which lowered his perceived threat level right from the start. Obviously, I don't take anything away from his win. He still busted his ass to get to the end and he deserved his win. But unlikely? Nah. He was in the top six or so on the depth chart of likely winners before the season even began.
I don’t think Sarah or Ben would’ve ever turned on him, returnee seasons are plagued with pregaming and in most regular seasons he would’ve gotten cut after the Sophie boot
Kristie, Shane and even Pia from AusSurvivor easily top this list. Most unexpected players to win the game looking at the respective lineup of their competitors on Day 1.
I can’t wait for Q, Liz and Venus to make the list after this season wraps and they are crowned the first triple winners because the jury will protest that all 3 of them deserve to win for being iconic
I think Chris’ showing on the challenge USA season 2 shows he would not win a regular season of survivor, he’s not strategic. Bud in a game like the challenge where you just have to win a challenge, he excels
I was blindsided by Mike at 3 but for a different reason. I thought he would be 1, and should have been. He’s who I always think of when I think of most unlikely winners
Would have loved to see an honorable mention of some English-speaking international Survivor winners, since I think there is not much to fill a full video with them, yet they have some of the wildest winner trajectories.
Honestly was looking for Michelle on this list! I really thought Aubrey was going to win that season. But it is so fun to rewatch and see how clearly Michelle was a contender!
@olivermensinger6022 Yeah I keep hearing she was shafted by the editors and I don't buy it. If she was really running things, it would've shown up on film. And why would the editors sabotage the winner? They have no reason to make a winner look bad in post, it would only hurt the show and their bottom line. So no I don't really buy the whole "bad edit" theory despite what some of the cast has said. No Vid No Did.
@@easy_nator_gamer8498 The editors have no reason to make a winner look bad? How quickly you forget Samoa, where one of the reasons Natalie White was seen as a bad winner was that production turned the season into what was essentially a 39 day promo for Russell's upcoming HvV appearance, which resulted in her getting only 15 confessionals, the lowest count of any winner, to Russell's over 100. Or let's take South Pacific, where Sophie gets majorly shafted in the airtime department, since pretty much every available slot of airtime was taken up by Coach, Ozzy, and Brandon. And then even among the non winners, you'd be surprised how much they did game wise that we didn't get to see for whatever reason. Still think the editing department is always going to try and make a winner look good/show as much of their game off as possible?
@@NYChica23 Come on! Natalie didn't get shafted, she was just boring af. She followed Russell all game long. Again if she was that integral to the strategy it would've shown up on film. As for Sophie, this is the first I'm hearing about her getting shafted, I thought it was quite obvious she was absolutely integral to the strategy that season and it showed on film. As for her screen time, well perhaps in a season with Coach, Ozzie, Cochran, Brandon, etc.. there's only so much screen time to go around lol. And I loved Sophie! She's in my top 5 all time favorite players. So no I don't buy into editors trying to make winners look bad for spite or whatever reason.
@@easy_nator_gamer8498 Considering it wasn't Russell who got Galu to turn on their own at the start of merge, where all he did on that vote was completely waste an idol, I'd say Natalie was more integral to the Foa Foa doing well than you think she was
Personally I feel like winning immunity and finding idols are perfectly legitimate ways to get further in the game. But it puts a bad taste in my mouth when that’s like the only or main reason someone wins. Nothing against Mike and Ben, they’re wonderful human beings. But I can’t accept the way they won, considering their poor social and strategic game
Ben got lucky with a suspicious twist, but Mike wasn't bad socially or strategically. He was just cast with a horrible group of individuals that got caught trying to get him out. So, then they took everything out on him. So happy the good guy won that season
@@tmm4195I feel like Caroline played a more well rounded game that was strategic and she did win a challenge or two and played an idol correctly. It just feels unfair for a big strong guy to dominate challenges and get to the end, when he’s clearly on the outs for long time
@@freddytang2128 It’s not unfair, it’s apart of the game. They needed to beat him in a challenge. The challenges are not set up in a way that just favor bigger stronger guys. Mike was just insanely good at everything. Also I think Caroline’s main flaw was that she wasn’t that amazing of a social player. A lot of people didn’t like her
@@tmm4195 Mike actually did have his moments where he screwed up, especially the auction. Rodney was just looking for any excuse to target Mike following the Joaquin blindside, so when Mike goes back on his deal to all bid for the letters from home, boom, there's a perfectly good reason to target him that gets handed to Rodney on a silver platter
I think Natalie White doesn't win very many seasons of Survivor but I think she might win Samoa specifically in a surprisingly high percentage of universes. Specifically because Russell wins almost none of them lol. Hilariously, Mike Tys- I mean Brett probably wins the most.
Man Natalie winning over Russel is definitely the wrong choice from the jury in terms of gameplay, but the way Russel switched up towards the end of BOTH his seasons makes it pretty unsurprising that they voted how they did. The guy was socially adept enough to get anyone and everyone to trust him and command them, but when he knew he was through to the end he stopped the facade and started gloating and celebrating too early. And he was downright mean spirited at times, too. If he just kept the facade up to the end, he wins both those seasons, and decisively at that. I will never understand why Parvati didn’t win Heroes vs Villains, though. Guilty by association with Russel in the eyes of the jury, I guess? Kinda sucks that they would vote for a million dollar prize on flimsy shit like that.
Because she's pretty likely to win in most scenarios...even Malcolm would've lost a jury vote to her in Philippines, and it took a double idol play for her to be taken out in WaW
Tommy is probably in the top10 most likely winners, everything about him is pitch-perfect to win a Survivor season. It's not good tv, but it's very effective.
I don’t think Q can win, I just can’t see how he’d ever get at least 5 votes, he can’t get Hunter, Tevin, Ben, Kenzie, or Tiffany’s vote after his attempted quit and likely wouldn’t get Liz or Soda’s
I mean it's really NOT her fault the producers were just in love with Russel & had him on back to back seasons & knew he made it to the end both times & so they chose to edit Samoa as the Russel Hantz show to hype the audience up for hvv so they almost completely hid Natalie in the edit don't forget SHE was the one to convince galu to vote out Erik instead of a foa foa member and her social game & relationships helped foa foa overcome the numbers disadvantage
@@mindovermatterbecomingyour1561 She is a good player, I just wouldn't put her high in my rankings because I find her boring, but I respect her win (though I rather see a Russell win, then a crash and burn in HvV)
Lmao Kendrick cooked Drake what are you talking about. Drake has tried to be kumbyah with Kendrick for years and he said noooope. Drake didn't deny allegations against him for being a predator and claimed oh I'm too famous for that. As if R Kelly didn't ever happen. He didn't deny that. He denied having another kid. Kendrick destroyed him.
@hunterborne2763 push-ups is okay. But family matters was better. Euphoria, 6:16 In LA, Meet the Grahams and Not Like Us cleared the whole thing. Not like us especially decided it. The track is being played on basically repeat every where. It's topping charts and plenty of publications are saying, yes Kendrick eon. Even major drake supporters are saying he lost. Kendricks lyrics were better, the lines hit harder, the beats were better. Drake didn't retaliate nearly as visceral on his tracks.
I’d say Chris U, Tony, and Dee were fairly physically inclined players. Being physical has never been a great strategy, check out any of Ozzy and Joe’s attempts. Hell Brad Culpepper lost to Sarah despite being more physical
It's not a modern day Survivor thing, because going back to the first two seasons, we see challenge beasts Kelly and Colby lose to the comparatively weaker Richard and Tina, and honestly, out of 46 seasons, I can name only 5 where the winner got there because of challenges. If you watch Cook Islands, it's actually the perfect example on how you can be a challenge phenomenon, but if you're sitting next to someone who is strategically and socially stronger, you're not winning
@@NYChica23 I’ve watched every season more than once. The people are less in shape, it’s a lot more whining and mudslinging that people call social game now. This season if you won any challenge. Every other loser will target you. That’s not survivor. Thank god AUS is still going. I can actually enjoy real survivor again. Players like Ozzy and Colby would now be eliminated early for being good looking. That’s the loser ideology of survivor these days. We can enjoy it but I’m tryna hear that I’m crazy or something. I know what I’m watching.
@@floatinrocktubetalk3768 you consider Caroline, Kitty, or Raymond any kinda of physical? The crop that season was weak as hell, you also didn’t acknowledge any part of the comment you responded to People don’t get voted out for being attractive, and Colby only ever made it far BECAUSE it was such an old school season, and Ozzy has taken.. 2nd, 9th, voted out 3 times in a season for 12th, 11th, and 4th, and finally 11th in Gamechangers And yeah challenge threats get targeted, did you watch Island of the Idols, or Edge of Extinction? Do you think Jaden or Kirby were voted out on pure strategy and not due to their high chance of winning out?
Petition for Jeff to let the Natalie win edit to see the light of day
It wouldnt be any different. It’s like putting lipstick on a pig.
i will NEVER forget the pure shock i endured when gabler won
Same here! I honestly didn’t like him, but he played a good game
Surprised Denise wasn’t on here at some point. Tribe decimated, new tribe goes to every tribal, and has the Malcolm hurdle at the end. Still great vid
I would argue that Denise is one of the likeliest winners to ever play. If you put her on any season, she is probably going to go far. She's personable, she's physically fit without being imposing (and hence immediately targeted at the individual portion), she's strategic, and it took her getting forced out of the game because of an idol deadlock in Winners at War for her to go. Denise was burned out in Winners at War by the end, but I think it had less to do with the game and more the egos of returning players causing that strife.
By the end, it was GOING to be Malcolm or Denise winning. And I don’t think Macolm was a big hurdle. He shot himself in the foot. She was about to take him (only then, would he be a hurdle at final tribal)
According to Artis, Denise was beating even Malcolm at FTC
@Julian-lz5pd yea most of the jury has said Denise beats Malcolm at the end.
@@Julian-lz5pd would Denise beat Penner or Carter?
I can't stand that Jeff hates Survivor Marquesas and Vecepia as a winner because his bias of his bad experience at the location its just so annoying Jeff can't see what literally everyone else sees Vecepia deserved to be on WaW for sure
The same thing pretty much applies to “Guatemala” since that season was also filmed in a rough location and Jeff was biased against Danni because he wanted Stephenie to win. Then again, you have seasons like “Africa” where the location was rough but Jeff loves it anyways even though his favorite player Lex gets voted out at final three.
@@johnfeather6476 Jeff is an enigma
Yeah I’m still hoping for a Vecepia return at some point.
Jeff is such a piece of shit and the show is so much worse for how much influence he's gained over the years.
Yes yes … marquesas is so underrated and V is a great winner!
Game Changers definitely helped Tony's odds in Winners at War
Truly the dumbest moves in Survivor history made by ALL those winners after Kim letting Tony get to the end.....
It's weird to think that if Russell had even an ounce of self-awareness and/or empathy (or at least the ability to convince a majority of the jury he had an ounce of self-awareness or empathy) he might've been a back-to-back winner.
he always took the wrong people to the end when there were always better options who would’ve lost to him
Having the top 2 youngest and oldest winners in the top 6 is kinda funny I think, but also says a lot about the amount of life experience (or lack thereof) is needed
Gabon is one of those seasons where you can just remember everyone and some of there most iconic moments.
I still can’t get a good handle on Gabon. Everyone says Bob was a horrible winner, but I just don’t get what others did to play a better game.
@@joshvanklompthat’s the point… everyone was horrible 😂 including Bob
@DizzyMapping honestly the only finale contestant who played any sort of game was kenny and he would've had to actually get to ftc
@joshvanklomp Kenny WAS playing a legit impressive Social and Strategic game UNTIL that blunder on the Corrine vote. His whole game just crumbled from there.
Matty wasn't terrible either.
Matty was arguably the person with the best odds of winning against most combinations of finalists. Marcus probably too, but he was booted so early it’s hard to tell.
Then again, the Onions were so bitter they were never going to vote for Sugar (who played the best game but completely tanked all of her winning chances - the OG Russell Hantz) and refused to admit they got outplayed by Susie (who was a pretty integral member of her alliance for the midgame).
I’m a little surprised Amber wasn’t on this list. While it’s fairly accepted that Amber really did earn her win, at the time most everyone thought she just rode Rob’s coattails. She also survived arguably the worst position to be in ever (the production-rigged swap) where she could’ve just been a footnote. Yes, Rob leveraged his pregaming with Lex, but still, Amber needed to put in the work.
I really don't know why people discount Gabler so much (especially comparing him to Bob, because aside from each being the oldest winners on their respective seasons, there's very little comparable between them). If anything, Gabler's game mirrors Sandra's first game almost to a tee (right down to being one vote away from a perfect game). That sort of fly-under-the-radar, divide-and-conquer game where you aren't a major physical threat but you have strong social bonds and insulate yourself in various alliances and never get tall poppy syndrome, and know when to cut your losses *is* the optimal way to win Survivor, especially in the new meta.
That's why I think that Gabler's game is the most easily replicable of the new era, and that style of gameplay wins championships more often than not. That's why Sandra was able to win twice. Put Gabler in an all-winners season with the rest of the new era winners and I think that he goes further than any of them, provided that his body doesn't give out on him.
Because he is still a flawed player, iirc the final three he was in he didn’t even want to be in and wanted to be in the end with Cody and Jesse.
@@devondonato4609 In the show he straight-up tells Owen his planned F3 involved Owen (with the assumption that Cassidy was the other). It could be that he would've accepted going to the F3 with Jesse/Cody if they brought him along, because at least that gets him to plead his case, but he also planted the seeds with Jesse and Cassidy both that Cody and Karla were playing similar games and would be funnelling votes from them. We actually see that conversation in the game.
I wouldn't go so far as to call Gabler a mastermind of the game, but he had extremely strong self-awareness of his place in the pecking order, and that's a key component of the game to know where you are, and when you should strike/make a move. Too often we've seen people shoot their shot too early and wind up going right after.
I came here to say exactly that! Peridiam sold Gabler way too short.
In my mind Gabler was most vulnerable at the first tribal, had he not gotten that temporary idol over Dwight I really think he could’ve gone over Morriah(not to be confused with Marya, Moriah, or Maria)
@@XanderMatthews-nv9zf The fact that he straight-up offered to sacrifice himself to play the SITD and then didn't cop a single vote because Elie (his future nemesis) thought he was a better ally long-term than Morriah is a testament to Gabler's social game. Gabler had his alliance on lock in Baka early on.
I love how Tony acknowledges Sandra as being the queen, and I also love that he is the king now.
Honestly would love to see Fabio make a reappearance. Yea, some low points for Nicaragua, but his win was so different from most others and it would be cool to see an older, more mature version of him play again
Wow, didn’t remember 7 people quitting in season 21
Tony has got to be the most surprising winner, just due to the fact that it was an all-star season, especially all-winners. We didn’t need to base our predictions off any editing, we already knew everyone. I was in a survivor draft for fun of seeing who could get the winner, and Tony was 19th out of all 20 castaways picked. I think the only one picked after him was Ben.
Chris from Vanuatu was even more unlikely since he totally sucked at the first immunity challenge that the men lost - he should have been the first boot if not for "Hey, there's 5 old guys but only 4 young guys" basic math strategy. If Chris was a woman, Jeff would've repeatedly said "C'mon WOMAN!" during that challenge instead of "THAT'S how you do it on Survivor."
What are you talking about? When on earth did Jeff say "C'mon WOMAN!" to ANYBODY‽
Chris I think was a VERY likely winner. The EOE people talked about exactly what it would take for one of them to actually win and Chris did all of it.
Exactly. He bonded with the castaways on the edge and used those bonds to his advantage
Wrong Chris we're talking about in this video....Peridiam is talking about Daugherty, who was the unlikeliest one of the F7 to win Vanuatu, and yet he did
Your discussion about alliances crumbling was pretty poingnant,
I recall one time I was doing my own study on alliances and I found out that an alliance of 6 is almost garaunteed to explode, and in such a way that someone from outside the alliance could eek out a win.
I think it would be a really interesting thing to study, the alliance structures and how they tend to work because each number seems to bring a different psychology to the gameplay
If you look at "The Six" alliance from this current season, it was a good idea, but it imploded immediately because Tim was targeting Hunter, because he didn't want to vote for Ben who was the only non-Six member from his original tribe, but Hunter was in The Six and that pissed off Q, so then Tim became the target and was voted off. After that, all of the other members got picked off with now only Charlie and Maria are left and they're going after each other.
@@alexpoage1078 Nooo you just spoiled me haha, but yeah, the bigger alliances usually implode but six is the weird sweet spot where they fracture in a way that lets someone else actually eek out a win from the outside, it's so interesting.
There's a really interesting trend with them all
4 Person alliances usually are the most stable
5 Person alliances tend to peel like an onion
6 Person alliances can implode with the highest chance of losing
7, 8, and 9 are pretty much too big to fail, and in the implosion will still result in the person who was in that original majority winning
@@Rywdb sorry for spoiling, I thought everyone was caught up!
@@alexpoage1078 Haha no need to feel bad, you had no way of knowing, I wish I had a way to catch up XD
@@alexpoage1078I was thinking of that same alliance!
Although I think it was less likely to work than I think you do because the bonds we're rather flimsy, especially between the three who were brought in and didn't meet one another until the merge.
I also think it's VERY worth noting that Charlie wasn't even an official member of The Six; he just became an honorary member because he was effectively a package deal with Maria.
Which feels super weird in hindsight considering how that ended.
I think Sophie is a win no one expected. Coach being at the end felt like a layup. Glad he fumbled and Sophie came back for 40 showing it wasnt a fluke.
Yeah but Sophie is not an unlikely winner I’d think. Put her on any season and I think she’d have a good shot at making it to the finale most of the time, if not winning.
Still you got to imagine that alot of people might have saw her as undeserving
I think a moment of Jenna using strategy was when it was down to her and Heidi being voted out next. Jenna told people that she was weak and tired. The opposite of Heidi who was showing off how strong she was. When it came time to vote the group felt it was more important to get rid of Heidi because she was more of a threat and they would get Jenna later. That bought her time and the group continue to take out the strong targets feeling she was not a treat. I think that is a very good strategy. I also think she's never given credit for that.
Not gonna lie, when Gablers name kept coming up during final tribal I was laughing my ass off the more votes he got 😂
I agree about Chris U. He gets bashed because he came back from the edge and won, but he honestly isn’t an unlikely winner, even on other seasons. He actually seemed like a very capable player who was likeable, athletic, and USUALLY knew when to make moves. He had winner potential from the beginning, and while he did get lucky that the edge existed on his season and that the final edge challenge targeted his strengths, I think he would’ve been a solid contender on many seasons, and we’ve seen many guys like him either win survivor or become runner-ups.
It sucks Chris from Vanuatu never came back for Winners at War. The fact he survived after the first challenge, let alone, after Chad was voted out was crazy. I know Probst is still salty about him blindsiding his girlfriend Julie, so he does want him to play again.
actually Probst considers Chris one of the top winners
If you had told me that Tony would be the second two time winner, beat 19 other winners, and made it to the end without receiving any votes before Winners at Wat aired, I would’ve said you’re crazy
Chris Underwood had probably the strongest rookie performance ever on his season of The Challenge. So strong it's made me appreciate his survivor win a little bit more and while I doubt it ever happens would actually like to see him play again. The Edge of Extinction twist just ruins everything it's around.
Adam Klein - so many bad strategic moves. There was always some other scapegoat that kept him from going home.
**Thanks for Jeff's pre-game analysis of Spencer. When I saw Charlie's audition video for this season, I immediately thought "Pre-game Spencer 2.0". And Charlie has turned out to be a delight.
Yes! I also thought Charlie was going to be another Spencebot, but I love him! I hope he wins! If he doesn't, I hope Kenzie wins!
Chris won Challenge USA 2 as well while constantly being a target on that show, too. So I fully agree with Peridiam’s assessment of Chris on S38. Chris can win on any Survivor season that has EoE or something similar to it.
Ozzy would have sacrificed himself to redemption Island & knocked Chris out. 10 times outta 10. A hundred times outta a hundred.
After winning The Challenge USA, it's clear Chris Underwood has always had solid chops to potentially do well in these shows.
Maybe that's why the Wardog targeted him in the first place. He KNEW Chris would be trouble down the line.
Here's a quick list of 10 unlikely winners from the top of my head... Vecepia, Sandra, Amber, Parvati, Bob, Natalie W, Natalie A, Gabler, Sophie and Erika. Some of the other unlikely winners received edits, but these players edits made me guess their placement in their respective seasons. Sandra gains notoriety for doing this TWICE. I was astonished by her wins, both times, but then players like Tony etc they were likely winning their season.
One person I would have included in this list was Michele Fitzgerald. The jury didn't get it wrong, but Aubry was totally going to win it had it not been for the fact that Michele won a unique challenge that allowed her to remove Mount St. Neal from the jury. I think with Neal at final tribal council, Aubry wins. And this was the only season where a player was able to do this. I would actually not object to doing this again in future seasons.
I also disagree slightly with your ordering. I would have had Chris Daugherty much higher on the list than you had him.
I also find it interesting that Erika won season 41 after people on her tribe tried to throw a challenge to get rid of her.
Matt's .5 second inferno almost blew up the Amazon Ecosystem
The jury never gets it wrong. The game is to make to the end and convince the jury to vote for you. Every winner is deserving.
Yes... Even Natalie White.
I agree! Though, I would like to point out that post season in koah rong if I am remembering correctly there were a couple jurors that came out and said they regretted voting for michelle over Aubry.
Yeah, Kaoh Rong got it wrong. Aubrey was robbed.
@konnorstever7776
I didn't know that but regretting the vote doesn't change anything.
@@konnorstever7776 Gabon also had a couple of jury regrets (and if I'm remembering correctly, Micronesia too), but that doesn't matter. The game would be an entirely different beast if the jurors could see the season before voting.
@@iLoveTheEighties80 Aubrye wasn't robbed. She lost and failed at some aspects that cost her the game
Chris being astounded by the fact that he is in a tribe with all women and he is not in charge is funny
Tony was my favorite player after his first season but after winners at war I think he’s not just my favorite but arguably the greatest player of all time
i could be misremembering but i think i remember tony in an rhap interview saying that he took a look at the cast of game changers and recognized he was never going to win so he sandbagged that season with an eye toward lowering his threat level in a potential future season.
Vecepia, Chris D, Fabio, Jenna M, Natalie W, Bob, Mike ... Sounds like a good tribe for season 50! Lol
Vecepia could own the new era
We also need to acknowledge that Janu played a huge part in Fabio’s win. Fabio won by 1 vote on the back of two players that quit, who only stayed in the jury *because* of the Janu precedent. Nobody else actively quit during the jury phase, so production was forced to follow what they did in Palau.
A little surprised Ben isn’t on here since he survived with idols and the fire making twist
The fire-making twist was there for his benefit. If that twist had been introduced a season later, Ben gets voted out at 4 and Chrissy wins the season and potentially replaces Ben in Winners at War
@@alexpoage1078CHRISSY WAS IN FINAL 3 AND STILL LOST.
@@szekesfehervar2230 against Ben
@@alexpoage1078 YES. THIS MEANS BEN IS MORE DESERVING and Chrissy a LOOSER. And she would have lost against Devon for sure. Devon was well liked - maybe except a sour Ashley. But he would have had votes 100% from Ben, Lauren, Joe, Desi, Cole. Devon, except the Ben votes, was on the right side of the votes. Actually including Ben (who played idols). But rewatch this season and Ponderosa and you will see that Devon was extremely liked by everyone. He didn't antagonise anyone from the jury. Chrissy did
@@alexpoage1078 I'm gonna stop you right there, because Chrissy was never winning that season, twist or no twist. If anything, we should be talking about how screwed over Devon got, since he, not Chrissy, was the likeliest of that F3 to have won had the twist not caught everyone by surprise
We need your thoughts on The Traitors .... I gave it a shot because of this channel and I'm so glad I did
Doesn't Ben make sense for this list too? His early game was good, but his late game hinged on (normally) unlikely idol finds as well as surprise firemaking at the f4
I think you sold Gabler a little short when comparing him to Bob
"Where is Cochran?"
- Jeff, probably
Chris rocked his season and played his final two against herself. He should have came back.
Prior to watching this video, I had Gabler as my pick. To this day, I'm still shocked that he won, but he was a really likeable guy in a weak final 3.
Idk, Chris did something to get voted out 3rd. This wasn't Ozzie volunteering to go out to win a challenge.
He targeted Wentworth who Wardog trusted more than Chris
Absolutely cannot believe the people on this season STILL have Q on the island! I hope Kenzie wins out of the 6 left
Or Charlie!
@@alexpoage1078 I want Kenzie 1st, if not her, Charlie
what's with the spencer montage at the end XD
Gabler, Fabio, and Mike Halloway I picked as winners
I'd disagree about Tony. Due the the lopsided nature of most of the winners being from more recent seasons, all the players pre-20s were targeted first. So that's eight of 20 people right off the rip who weren't going to win WAW. That's better odds than any season. Plus, Tony had the benefit of crashing and burning in Game Changers which lowered his perceived threat level right from the start. Obviously, I don't take anything away from his win. He still busted his ass to get to the end and he deserved his win. But unlikely? Nah. He was in the top six or so on the depth chart of likely winners before the season even began.
I don’t think Sarah or Ben would’ve ever turned on him, returnee seasons are plagued with pregaming and in most regular seasons he would’ve gotten cut after the Sophie boot
I'd argue Adam deserves to be on this list given a lot of people expected Hannah or David to win.
Sandra! And she did it twice!!
Kristie, Shane and even Pia from AusSurvivor easily top this list. Most unexpected players to win the game looking at the respective lineup of their competitors on Day 1.
Wasn't shocked by Pia. She played Sandra, Denise and Cirie alike.
I can’t wait for Q, Liz and Venus to make the list after this season wraps and they are crowned the first triple winners because the jury will protest that all 3 of them deserve to win for being iconic
I laught soo hard
Jelegendary
Hasn’t aged super well
Damn not even 1 made final tribal, I’m still kinda shocked the premiere prophecy never came into frutition
I think Chris’ showing on the challenge USA season 2 shows he would not win a regular season of survivor, he’s not strategic. Bud in a game like the challenge where you just have to win a challenge, he excels
I think Chris definitely shows aspects of being strategic
I was blindsided by Mike at 3 but for a different reason. I thought he would be 1, and should have been. He’s who I always think of when I think of most unlikely winners
4:56 holy shit I didn’t know several of the final 9 quit
So it just became an F2 then, if several players quit?
Would have loved to see an honorable mention of some English-speaking international Survivor winners, since I think there is not much to fill a full video with them, yet they have some of the wildest winner trajectories.
Kristie from Australia is the top pick for me of those honorable mentions
Honestly was looking for Michelle on this list! I really thought Aubrey was going to win that season. But it is so fun to rewatch and see how clearly Michelle was a contender!
Surprised to not see any mention of Ben
I love that you said that Chris could easily win other shows and he easily won the challenge
sophie not being on this list is crazyyy
Where's the bottle breaking Lamb who turned into a lion? lmao
On paper, just looking at Erika and 41, I wouldn’t call her unlikely. It’s a shame the producers shafted her in the editing department.
@olivermensinger6022 Yeah I keep hearing she was shafted by the editors and I don't buy it. If she was really running things, it would've shown up on film. And why would the editors sabotage the winner? They have no reason to make a winner look bad in post, it would only hurt the show and their bottom line. So no I don't really buy the whole "bad edit" theory despite what some of the cast has said. No Vid No Did.
@@easy_nator_gamer8498 The editors have no reason to make a winner look bad? How quickly you forget Samoa, where one of the reasons Natalie White was seen as a bad winner was that production turned the season into what was essentially a 39 day promo for Russell's upcoming HvV appearance, which resulted in her getting only 15 confessionals, the lowest count of any winner, to Russell's over 100. Or let's take South Pacific, where Sophie gets majorly shafted in the airtime department, since pretty much every available slot of airtime was taken up by Coach, Ozzy, and Brandon. And then even among the non winners, you'd be surprised how much they did game wise that we didn't get to see for whatever reason. Still think the editing department is always going to try and make a winner look good/show as much of their game off as possible?
@@NYChica23 Come on! Natalie didn't get shafted, she was just boring af. She followed Russell all game long. Again if she was that integral to the strategy it would've shown up on film.
As for Sophie, this is the first I'm hearing about her getting shafted, I thought it was quite obvious she was absolutely integral to the strategy that season and it showed on film. As for her screen time, well perhaps in a season with Coach, Ozzie, Cochran, Brandon, etc.. there's only so much screen time to go around lol. And I loved Sophie! She's in my top 5 all time favorite players.
So no I don't buy into editors trying to make winners look bad for spite or whatever reason.
@@easy_nator_gamer8498 Considering it wasn't Russell who got Galu to turn on their own at the start of merge, where all he did on that vote was completely waste an idol, I'd say Natalie was more integral to the Foa Foa doing well than you think she was
Give us the proper Natalie White edit!
It doesn’t exist
Personally I feel like winning immunity and finding idols are perfectly legitimate ways to get further in the game. But it puts a bad taste in my mouth when that’s like the only or main reason someone wins. Nothing against Mike and Ben, they’re wonderful human beings. But I can’t accept the way they won, considering their poor social and strategic game
Ben got lucky with a suspicious twist, but Mike wasn't bad socially or strategically. He was just cast with a horrible group of individuals that got caught trying to get him out. So, then they took everything out on him. So happy the good guy won that season
@@tmm4195I feel like Caroline played a more well rounded game that was strategic and she did win a challenge or two and played an idol correctly. It just feels unfair for a big strong guy to dominate challenges and get to the end, when he’s clearly on the outs for long time
@@freddytang2128 It’s not unfair, it’s apart of the game. They needed to beat him in a challenge. The challenges are not set up in a way that just favor bigger stronger guys. Mike was just insanely good at everything. Also I think Caroline’s main flaw was that she wasn’t that amazing of a social player. A lot of people didn’t like her
For the love of Christ it’s CAROLYN
@@tmm4195 Mike actually did have his moments where he screwed up, especially the auction. Rodney was just looking for any excuse to target Mike following the Joaquin blindside, so when Mike goes back on his deal to all bid for the letters from home, boom, there's a perfectly good reason to target him that gets handed to Rodney on a silver platter
I would’ve included Adam and Tony's Cagayan game
I think Natalie White doesn't win very many seasons of Survivor but I think she might win Samoa specifically in a surprisingly high percentage of universes. Specifically because Russell wins almost none of them lol. Hilariously, Mike Tys- I mean Brett probably wins the most.
I don't think Russell wins even in a universe where he's in an F3 with Phillip Sheppard and Lil Morris
Man celebrity survivor would be fun maybe
Fabio is my favorite Survivor player of all time
Chris from Vanuatu looks just like Terry Bogard from fatal fury
Very solid list. I've met 633 former players, including every winner, and this group is unlikely and underappreciated by SEG/CBS.
Bro gabler? Really? Idk why that one I could see it coming
No matter how many idols you can’t say Ben’s wasn’t unlikely
I’m a way bigger Challenge fan and Chris Underwood winning USA 2 was one of the greatest wins i’ve ever seen. he was in bottom entire game.
Man Natalie winning over Russel is definitely the wrong choice from the jury in terms of gameplay, but the way Russel switched up towards the end of BOTH his seasons makes it pretty unsurprising that they voted how they did. The guy was socially adept enough to get anyone and everyone to trust him and command them, but when he knew he was through to the end he stopped the facade and started gloating and celebrating too early. And he was downright mean spirited at times, too. If he just kept the facade up to the end, he wins both those seasons, and decisively at that. I will never understand why Parvati didn’t win Heroes vs Villains, though. Guilty by association with Russel in the eyes of the jury, I guess? Kinda sucks that they would vote for a million dollar prize on flimsy shit like that.
Why isn't Denise from Philippines on this list?
Because she's pretty likely to win in most scenarios...even Malcolm would've lost a jury vote to her in Philippines, and it took a double idol play for her to be taken out in WaW
Wait what's wrong with Maryanne's win??
Nothing, she’s great.
Ben not being on this list is insans
Kristie Bennett on Survior Australia
jeff's reads on players isn't always right but he kinda clocked spencer
It’s funny that, aside from a few exceptions, this list is almost identical to my list of the worst seasons.
Chris only person to win both survivor and the challenge my king
I will always say Jeff screwed Mike on the auction. Jeff shouldn’t have said anything
Here's another way of looking at the top six ... also people who will never be invited back to play Survivor again.
Mother Reem
Haven’t watched yet but lemme guess gabler makes the list🤣
Yeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh Fabio! My favorite winner is back.
What about Tommy or even Ben?
Tommy was incredibly likely, he probably beats everyone in the final 8 except maybe Elaine(7th)
Tommy is probably in the top10 most likely winners, everything about him is pitch-perfect to win a Survivor season. It's not good tv, but it's very effective.
@@XanderMatthews-nv9zf Elaine was a great player and I liked Lauren too for the funny confessionals. I feel like he would have lost to Lauren maybe?
Tommy was a very likely winner, but I'm also shocked Ben wasn't on this list
@@terryatlerjr6615 I think he also would've had a hard time in an FTC against Janet, tbh
Hell yeah Bob the goat
Fabio is my favorite winner of survival
Fabio is my fav ❤
Q (if he wins lol)
If he won, there would be an entire fanbase that hates all the season 46 cast.
I don’t think Q can win, I just can’t see how he’d ever get at least 5 votes, he can’t get Hunter, Tevin, Ben, Kenzie, or Tiffany’s vote after his attempted quit and likely wouldn’t get Liz or Soda’s
gabler
👣🛸👣🛸👣🛸
#ReleaseTheNatalieWCut
Don’t get me wrong but judging from the level of competition in that season Mike was running in a field of his own 😂
Ben and Denise not being on the list is crazy
Chris underwood was a horrible winner in a horrible season. I didn’t watch 39 because 38 was so bad.
Pre-woke survivor was so much better
Define "woke"
Natalie White worst winner in Survivor history.
I think there’s worse winners lol
I mean, there is Chris U
I mean it's really NOT her fault the producers were just in love with Russel & had him on back to back seasons & knew he made it to the end both times & so they chose to edit Samoa as the Russel Hantz show to hype the audience up for hvv so they almost completely hid Natalie in the edit don't forget SHE was the one to convince galu to vote out Erik instead of a foa foa member and her social game & relationships helped foa foa overcome the numbers disadvantage
@@mindovermatterbecomingyour1561 She is a good player, I just wouldn't put her high in my rankings because I find her boring, but I respect her win (though I rather see a Russell win, then a crash and burn in HvV)
@@mindovermatterbecomingyour1561 facts her game is definitely better than others I can think of like Michelle or Erika
Chris Underwood is one of the most underrated winners of all time.
Also Drake beat Kendrick.
Lmao Kendrick cooked Drake what are you talking about. Drake has tried to be kumbyah with Kendrick for years and he said noooope. Drake didn't deny allegations against him for being a predator and claimed oh I'm too famous for that. As if R Kelly didn't ever happen. He didn't deny that. He denied having another kid. Kendrick destroyed him.
@@JitteryJackanape did you listen to the song? Or just read comments?
@hunterborne2763 yes. And Kendrick was simply better. Only good track Drake regarding the beef was family matters. All of Kendricks were good.
@@JitteryJackanape lmao, push ups wasn’t a good track. You’re in flailing denial
@hunterborne2763 push-ups is okay. But family matters was better. Euphoria, 6:16 In LA, Meet the Grahams and Not Like Us cleared the whole thing. Not like us especially decided it. The track is being played on basically repeat every where. It's topping charts and plenty of publications are saying, yes Kendrick eon. Even major drake supporters are saying he lost. Kendricks lyrics were better, the lines hit harder, the beats were better. Drake didn't retaliate nearly as visceral on his tracks.
It’s easier to win now more than ever as being a physical player is no longer viable. The loser mentality has poisoned modern day survivor.
I’d say Chris U, Tony, and Dee were fairly physically inclined players.
Being physical has never been a great strategy, check out any of Ozzy and Joe’s attempts. Hell Brad Culpepper lost to Sarah despite being more physical
It's not a modern day Survivor thing, because going back to the first two seasons, we see challenge beasts Kelly and Colby lose to the comparatively weaker Richard and Tina, and honestly, out of 46 seasons, I can name only 5 where the winner got there because of challenges. If you watch Cook Islands, it's actually the perfect example on how you can be a challenge phenomenon, but if you're sitting next to someone who is strategically and socially stronger, you're not winning
@@NYChica23 I’ve watched every season more than once. The people are less in shape, it’s a lot more whining and mudslinging that people call social game now. This season if you won any challenge. Every other loser will target you. That’s not survivor. Thank god AUS is still going. I can actually enjoy real survivor again. Players like Ozzy and Colby would now be eliminated early for being good looking. That’s the loser ideology of survivor these days. We can enjoy it but I’m tryna hear that I’m crazy or something. I know what I’m watching.
@@floatinrocktubetalk3768 you consider Caroline, Kitty, or Raymond any kinda of physical?
The crop that season was weak as hell, you also didn’t acknowledge any part of the comment you responded to
People don’t get voted out for being attractive, and Colby only ever made it far BECAUSE it was such an old school season, and Ozzy has taken.. 2nd, 9th, voted out 3 times in a season for 12th, 11th, and 4th, and finally 11th in Gamechangers
And yeah challenge threats get targeted, did you watch Island of the Idols, or Edge of Extinction? Do you think Jaden or Kirby were voted out on pure strategy and not due to their high chance of winning out?
Mike Holloway is my skibidi sigma ❤🫡