Market Heats Up As Confidence Rises For Now - Toronto & Vancouver Real Estate Roundtable Feb 2024
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 พ.ค. 2024
- The market is heating up as we’re back with our Feb Toronto-Vancouver real estate roundtable with Urmi, Steve and John!
As sales rebound, we discuss what is behind the boost and whether it’s part of a larger trend? How will the BoC next rate moves impact consumer sentiment? And we take a closer look at the condo market as rents decline and units are not selling.
00:00 Intro
00:49 Vancouver Market Update
02:17 Toronto Market Update
08:41 Interest Rate News
14:49 Affordability Blues
21:25 Foreign Student Drop
26:07 Rents Falling?
31:56 Condo Glut?
37:37 Projects Failing?
Today's show links:
* John Vlog on Foreign Students: • Will International Stu...
* Urbanation Q4-2023 Condominium Market Survey results: www.urbanation.ca/news/gta-ne...
Contact Us
Follow John on X-Twitter @JohnPasalis; Email at: askjohn@movesmartly.com
Follow Steve on X-Twitter @SteveSaretsky; Email at: steve@stevesaretsky.com
Follow Urmi on X-Twitter @MoveSmartly; Email at: editor@movesmartly.com
About This Roundtable Series
Each month, Move Smartly.com editor, Urmi Desai, talks to John Pasalis, Housing Analyst, Broker and President of Realosophy Realty in Toronto, and Steve Saretsky, Housing Analyst and Realtor at the Oakwin Realty Group at Oakwin Realty in Vancouver about the latest data and on-the-ground insights in Canada's biggest residential RE markets. (Thanks to Jesse Bains, now at Linked In News, for kicking off this series at Yahoo Finance originally!)
About The Move Smartly Show
The Move Smartly show is co-hosted by Urmi Desai, Editor of Move Smartly, and John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty on MoveSmartly.com, TH-cam and various podcast platforms. The show is powered by the Realosophy Realty Brokerage in Toronto, Canada.
You can listen to the Move Smartly show on your favourite podcast platform: link.chtbl.com/movesmartly
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your audience and support!
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The BOC will go out of its way to not cut rates until the summer because the last thing they want is to stimulate the economy with an RE run.
So do you see prices ever crashing in the future?
@@Elias-yx9gx
I see this year being exactly like last year.
Bump up a bit in the spring, then slow decline in sales and prices for the remainder of the year.
@@Elias-yx9gx
There will never be a sudden crash.
Just multiple years of slow decline.
Wages will slowly go up.
RE will slowly go down.
Affordability gap will slowly narrow.
My guess is 4 to 5 more years of the same
I love Steve. He is an realtor who is using the platform being pesemetic rather than other realtor who market being optimistic. In hindsight these assets are too inflated and people will take time to realise that inflated prices are actually making them poorer.
JUSTIN T make canada FAIL in each sections home ,rent ,car theft and two bedroom college . he need to resign
It is demand very high in Vancouver. House price cannot be low. Multiple zone is making home price cheaper because it is smaller , cheaper per square feet. But the land is very expensive and more density .
JUSTIN T make canada FAIL in each sections home ,rent ,car theft and two bedroom college . he need to resign
You are choosing to ignore that high demand is now, and has been for the last 10 years, the problem. Canada is in an incredibly big housing bubble but as you point out people are standing in the wings waiting to push prices higher when rates budge because they think they can make a lot of money as they have in the past. The recent changes to immigration leave total permanent and non-permanent immigrants close to a million. My bet is that building will be more than needed when economic conditions are favourable for developers given the lack of zoning and tax breaks - that's what the market does. All that will save a drop in prices is continued long term, high rate immigration. But a change in government or the sentiments of Canadians may result in decreased immigration and demand and hopefully a large drop in housing prices.
Over 50% of homes are owned by ppl in their 60's, the banks have a liquidity problem and interest rates come down when the recesion starts to drag the economy down, speculators can't change Canada's demographics stock will increase, loans are harder to come by and the recesion is a certainty considering the whole world is slowing down. There are no bidding wars just rea lestate folk trying to keep their commissions high
RE in Canada is a very poor asset class. Inefficient, corrupt practices and oligopoly of banks play to prop up prices. Yes, Canada may have had a great reputation for investment, but mass immigration has meant, that cities have high crime, drug culture, and poor health amenities. Why should an investor take their money to places like UAE or Thailand? All the analysis, I feel is for folks who are not able to move out of Canada. But if you can, you should consider the US market or even places in Asia and ME. Don't buy RE in Canada, especially if you have investments in your home emigrating country, and get stuck paying astronomical rates. Would have made sense to buy RE in Canada if it was leading the way in education, healthcare, Innovation, and security, unfortunately, it is not. Even if the conservative were to come into power, it would not change the overall direction Canada is moving. Move to the US if you can!
Any chance you can have someone from Montreal, it’ll be interesting to know what’s going on here on this channel
is there some alternative approach to housing that Canada could try? The government doesn't seem to be willing to get involved in building anything at scale - I don't understand why they want to depend entirely on private developers...
Well you do want to encourage competition and it’s probably difficult to attract investment if the government is under cutting the private companies.That said it’s disastrous for a country’s future if housing stays unaffordable.
I guess that's what I mean - the math does not appear to be mathing anymore. Even something like the government providing low interest loans to developers seems like a better alternative than just waving GST@@sharinglungs3226
UVIC announced staff layoffs as a direct result of limiting international students.
Springing? Pent up demand for 2nd, 3rd home not new buyers, inventory has increased, boomers downsizing to condos. These groups are shielded from some market effects but everyone must come to the realization of decrease house prices in the long run.
Of the thousands and thousands of new condos that successfully closed last quarter, how many had to go to B lenders at 8-9%... what losses are these newly minted landlords dealing with month to month?
bad take after bad take.... hopefully someone else is managing your money. btw B lenders are at 7% which was about the same as the big banks at the top end of the range..
you do know if no investor is buying, nobody is building....builder bank financing requires 75% pre-sold to even get the construction loan
@@GreenBeanGreenBean you didn’t answer my question. How many investors who just barely managed to close are deep in the hole even at today’s rental market rates???? Investors propping up the entire condominium and rental market is a relatively new phenomenon. It wasn’t always this way. There was a time when government supported an environment where rental housing was built by large corporate landlords or by government themselves , that provided stable, affordable rental housing to those that did not own their own homes.
@@rdefacendis you think riocan is gonna build anything affordable? lol! straight up delusion..... and the reason the gov got out of the affordable housing is because it is a permanent money loser... when the tenant is paying half or less of market rent that aint enough for maintenance and everything else....if 3k/m isn't making money then 1500/m is even worse!
protip: negative cashflow =/= losing money.... buying a gold coin = negative cashflow, putting money into your rrsp is negative cashflow.
@@rdefacendis you are hilariously delusional. Aint nothing stopping riocan from renting their buildings for 1500/m other than permanent constant money losses... which is why the gov got out of the biz.
The reason rents are high is because there are not enough investors willing to put up $$ to deal with your bs, not too many.
You are correct RioCan ( which by the way is mostly a commercial rental landlord) is not going to rent at a loss. But if government started building housing again.. it would add to supply and help drive rental prices down..,
As a suggestion- don’t insult your fellow commenters, it weakens your argument. Focus on the debate. 😊
JUSTIN T make canada FAIL in each sections home ,rent ,car theft and two bedroom college . he need to resign
The cost to build is not fixed. In the medium term, supply and demand also impacts development industry costs. If condos stop building, the cost of labour WILL fall.. the cost of materials WILL fall... Even cities starved for revenue will adjust development costs downward if developers stop building. Condo development costs are not immovable...
your solution is to reduce new builds to 0 to lower labour costs?? lol!!! ah yes your solution to reduce CPI is to increase rates which increases costs and thus increases CPI.
you do know people want someone to build more to increase supply to reduce rent growth right..... which means they should be training more workers to increase the pipeline size, not reducing the pipeline
Theoretically cost to build could come down but given the dearth of tradespeople, the stubbornly high inflation for building materials, high immigration and the structural supply shortage of homes it doesn’t seem likely
Perhaps its no cuts ! Might be some disapointment there 😂
JUSTIN T make canada FAIL in each sections home ,rent ,car theft and two bedroom college . he need to resign
Cant wait till this market implodes
JUSTIN T make canada FAIL in each sections home ,rent ,car theft and two bedroom college . he need to resign
What is so good about imploding that you can't wait?
I really wonder when Q4 of 2025 where we will be at with housing and Nov 2025 when Poilievre wins a majority then perhaps it will take 10years to reverse the damage done by JT and the Liberals handling on immigration. It was shown that they were presented the full evidence to not increase immigration and they double down on it, Why? They all had a stake in the market and it lined their own pockets what a shame! I personally find it all very depressing but I always check in to Move Smartly to see if there is a tiny ray of hope! The teachings of Victor Frankle build a case for tragic optimism because it will give us the beliefs we can carry on strong! I wish you all the best!
@16:40 "We're not solving affordability through monitary policy.
Also we're not solving it through house building either. What's the ingredient that has to change? Lower the demand.
Only way to do that is to return to sane immigration policy that doesn't increase population by 2-3% per year.
Clearly the sitting governement won't do this.
I think next year even liberals will defecting and voting for the conservatives to fix this mess.