He talks slow because that is the right way to speak to a life audience. Not the same has watching an edited video. The more time you spend on the internet the slower real life becomes. Careful...😉
Whoever you are who can't sleep tonight, is tired or sad, believe that there will be tomorrow that will light up your beautiful days. You just need to endure a little more, a little more, and a little more ... Thank you for being patient, thank you for being able to survive. And as you read this, promise yourself that you will be able to get through your toughest days in the future. Promise to keep smiling, no matter how you are ... You deserve to be happy :)
The topic covered here is probably the most fundamental problem that most gamblers fail to overcome. First of all let me say that you must first be playing a game in which the odds can be larger than the actual probability at certain points in the game. This is the first fundamental flaw amongst gamblers. They prefer simplicity citing complexity as the enemy when in actual fact the opposite is true. The greater the complexity the greater the opportunity, usually. Just ask a punter why he plays the slots in preference to horse racing and he will say that he has a better chance of winning !, what he really means is that he has fewer variables to consider. The other problem that faces gamblers or at least those playing a game which offers opportunity, is that their approach is based around finding winners and not finding value. In horse racing they focus on whats going to win rather than is their a bet in the race. This is not surprising as their first exposure to Racing is via 'experts' in the media who operate in exactly the same way. Finally one thing the speaker did not touch upon which I think might be interesting is what value or opinion do successful gamblers have towards money. My guess is that ironically they are less driven by it than people think.
+Mark Littlewood "First of all let me say that you must first be playing a game in which the odds can be larger than the actual probability at certain points in the game." What does that mean? Are you saying that the player/gambler has to be able to get a mathematical edge at some point during play?
@@ZakBurrell To my knowledge, it is fairly well known and accepted that the only casino games which can be consistently beaten by strategic play are blackjack and some types of video poker. To win you have to learn the proper playing strategy for each respective game, and in the case of blackjack, you have to learn how to count cards. But even after someone does this they only gain a very small advantage over the house, typically a fraction of a percent on average. On very rare occasions some slot machines, namely progressives and those which are required/guaranteed to pay out a mini jackpot before a certain value is hit, can be beaten as well. But the progressive jackpot has to be very high, or you have to play a slot machine when it is very close to paying out the mini jackpot. If you have some idea of the average theoretical payout for the game you can calculate how much you are expected to lose before you hit the mini jackpot(which is guaranteed to hit by a certain dollar amount; there is a "counter" which tracks and moves, increases, by a small increment each time a given amount of money is played. However, my real tip and best advice is to not gamble.
@@mydogskips2 he means that value is found when the probability of winning and the payout odds intersect. For instance putting a smaller amount on a long shot win can be a great opportunity because there is less upfront cash you must risk to make the supposedly riskier wager. These opportunities can further be examined by the prospective bettor to find instances where for whatever reason the betting public has come down far too much in favor of the favorite to find truly great value bets. The psychological trick here is to never fall too far in love with your evaluation and remember that dogs are dogs for a reason and to keep value bets modest.
Expert gamblers exploit market inefficiencies, they make bets where the odds on offer are higher than the 'true' odds of the bet winning, thats all it boils down to in every situation. Card Counters increase their bets when a deck or shoe is unbalanced enough. Sports bettors take advantage of lines that are inaccurate based on their models. Horse Players make their own book of prices and wager on the runners that are underbet by the public. Poker winning is based on accurately assessing the range of hands your opponent is likely to hold and calculating your equity as a percentage. You bet if the pot odds are higher than that percentage, although it gets more tricky because of implied odds and variance.
I'm a life long gambler, and here's something you can learn from me: if you have an edge, or advantage, no matter how small, with enough time it can reap substantial rewards.
Yes, having decent and various criterias for choosing your actions within a sport bet can provide edge, if you spot a repeating event in different matches in certain sports (horse racing is my case) and you take advantage of this possible pattern you will profit big time in the long term
Yes Mr Dylan is Correct in his assumption that there are certain dedicated individuals who study games of Chance and reverse engineer them So well that they Know every possible outcome that game of Chance will display and then develope a divide and Conquer law of averages arbritage Deterministic Algorithm. Similar to Quantum Artificial Intelligence. He is Probably A Expert Gambler Himself To Indentify that Skillset are a Genius Much Respect Mr Dylan
He's wrong you can be a expert & still enjoy it with thrills. You won't win every time just because your expert which will allow you to sustain excitement when you do win!
I am a poker and blackjack player who also played Baccarat. Many people think that Baccarat is a pure game of luck but it is not. Professional Baccarat players will not lose in the game as easily as novices do. The issue of skill in Baccarat lies in knowing the safer bet, the amount one should bet, and when to walk away. In a sense, it is also a game where important skills shall be exercised to increase the player's chances of winning.
I agree. I'd rather just increase my luck. I lack the skill and discipline demanded of reality. Success on reality's terms is much more difficult to accomplish whatever one's knowledge and ability. Kudos for the virtue of achieving success in spite of the odds. The limits of possibility are abruptly realized if luck is misunderstood.
Using probabilities in daily life and tools of logic is very different than always 'taking' the odds the house gives you, which nobody has an edge and will inevitably lose as time goes on
@@NESTEAftw - Yes, but the house whittles away at the available money, removing a little bit from the total each hand, squeezing the players, until their light bill is paid, and the dealers. Then the bums fight over what is left.
Years ago i read a book "how to get rich slowly but surely" written by a college professor. He cites a technique called "decision accounting " and adapts it to stock market. He too prescribes putting a number on hunches and estimated subjective probabilities. His name is, if i remember correctly William T Morris. The ideas in the above TEDX runs parallel to Prof. William T Morris ideas. The prof's book was thought provoking. Iread it in 1978.
+Jose Francis I wanna add some more. William T Morris also suggests drawing a systems chart showing how you and the market interact. You draw one and two weeks later you draw another systems chart/diagram. 88 per cent chance the second one is far better than the first one. The prof says that with some tweaking you can earn 9-11 per cent for long term (20-30)years and nurse a small amount to a fortune in the long run.Learn what the market does to your behavior.And not the contrary. Develop skill and do not depend on luck. jose francis,aged 59.5years,from Cochin, India jose.vadekeyil@sbi.co.in
yeah man i agree as a pro poker player i have software to quote unquote improve what would be called my instincts and allows me to attach a number to a degree / equity % in a lot of situations which has allowed me to hone my intuition as some people call it. I don't call it intuition because intuition in my book is a guess that can be wright but sometime it turns on you. Intuition as some call it in my book i would consider that gambling and i want a edge and being able to articulate my thoughts out loud if need be.
My risk intelligence test results were enlightening: A PHP Error was encountered Severity: Notice Message: Undefined variable: main_content Filename: includes/template.php Line Number: 20
There are several factors in how to win sports bets. One resource I discovered which successfully combines these is the *TheSportsCash. Com* definately the best system i've seen.Check out the interesting information .
As a profit gambler I must say that I didn't know that there is a scientific explanation of what I do. While watching the video I kept thinking "oh that's exactly how I do it"
You are exactly right! Managing your bankroll and leaving while you are ahead is the only way to success. Most people stay too long at the fair and blow all their winnings back. You CAN win at certain times (sessions), so you've got to leave with a profit when that happens.
I am a Pro sports bettor, and I have done both the research and intuition picks. However, I never thought of sports bettors like this, Mr. Evans gave me a whole different perspective about sports bettors. I really enjoyed watching this video as I can relate to it in every way possible. However, I don't think I will change my approach to sports betting to seem more intelligent , I will continue to do my research and take notes instead of just pure intuition and numbers from my head. Moreover, I have done many bets and picks such as the Patriots on the super bowl. Everyone was betting against Tom Brady, but i know you don't bet against that man, ever.
I recommend the movie 'Rounders' for those who like this subject. Good movie exploring these aspects - particularly John Turturro's work-like approach vs Matt Damon/Ed Norton characters' approach.
Very succinct. One of the best talks I've heard on the subject. It will also help me explain myself to my doubting friends and relatives who have no idea about probabilities (all toaster-buyers).
Good Vid. Funny though at 4:04 in the vid | the online element greatly reduces the psychology element of poker he focuses on. Really it's quite a bit of all things mentioned though Systematic and some great players are more intuitive as well, but most winners I'd say are very systematic... Where do you play Jess?
It is gambling. The people who favor this so called investment banking are only fooling themselves. If it was 100% why do they need your money. Hello!!
When a person wants to gamble and doesn't want to use their own money, they find ways to convince others. Some use Statistical Inference and Risk Intelligence to support their arguments.
Intelligence when considering risk it’s what the speaker talks about here. To make the analysis and end up with a number saying if something have this and that percentage chance of working out. Then look at the market and see if the odds is good enough and decide to give it a go or pass. Betting is never a game of "who will win". You need to go that extra mile and decide how big chance in percent a bet have to hit home. Either by calculations or by making estimates based on gathering data and process it and come up with that percentage number as he describe about those people that was betting on horses and they did the process in their head without any calculations. Don't believe, don't put confidence or pessimism into the bet, simply look at the numbers and do the call based on that.
I have been trading for over 30 years and I will tell you my best trades have the lowest confidence going in. High confidence is usually due to prior move or past evidence and therefore low confidence with rules met have a higher probability of working.
@S BTrades. You might not understand what he is talking about. This guy is addressing an issue that most traders/gamblers don't understand, which is odds in betting. Lot's average gamblers/traders would stop losing money if they figure out the odds first, before starting to become the game instead of being part of the game. Also, Dylan is an outstanding presenter. I don't know him personally but have deep respect for someone standing on the stage and telling a story. Where is your presentation?
There are many factors in sports picks. One place I found that succeeds in merging these is the Alchemy Hasty Fixer (check it out on google) definately the most useful resource that I have ever heard of.look at all the amazing information .
Just wonderful, I've been looking for "horse racing betting methods" for a while now, and I think this has helped. Have you ever come across - Senonnor Peymma Eradicator - (should be on google have a look ) ? Ive heard some decent things about it and my mate got great success with it.
This is a decent talk if you wanted to know why people gamble but very uneducational for those so called expert gamblers that already know they gamble because there's an EV edge for them and most others just gamble for the thrill.
Things should always be explained as though the person knows very little on the subject. Some poker players also struggle a lot with believing they can learn something from anyone. The smartest people tend to seem most interested in what others have to say. It’s quite strange
Baseball is the only thing to bet because in most cases you can bet on games for which odds were established before the previous game is played,a tremendous advantage in a sport in which the majority of teams win about half of their games.
Funny how he didn't include baccarat as a catalyst to beat the odds professionally. I guess there just aren't that many of us around. Better that it stays that way.
You are forgetting to mention all the work that goes into being successful in your chosen sport...Choosing winners is not only a talent but a lot of hard work goes into the analysis of these sports...Most successful betters only bet on one sport...
a lot of hard work goes in to each of them in there own right. I used to be a card counter and didn't like the scrutiny i faced so i transitioned to poker successfully and i put in a lot of hard work. Everyday i put in minimum a couple hours of home work and there have been days 15 hours all home work and no poker playing because i needed to understand the ins and outs of a situation to gain a edge on other pros that i play with on a daily basis. I even have revisted it the same home work situation multiple times hours at a time for a few weeks so i can ingrain it in my brain and come up with a over all strategy and multiple counter strategies based on how they react to it. Then i go play test it out and find a new reaction or adjustment i didn't think would be made and have to go back and understand how the adjustment effects my decisions whether it was in my favor or against me and how to counter it. Most poker players are lazy as shit and that is why so many can not beat poker online no more because it rewards work ethic.
I've spent a lot of time playing poker and I might not be an expert but I think i'm good enough to really think you miss the mark on a lot of things. Also, although you don't really say so directly I get the impression that you think expert gamblers arn't really aware of the concepts you're talking about. In reality I think it's closer to the other way around. Most expert gamblers are very learned and aware of the concepts you talk about. On the other hand, I feel like you're fumbling around in the dark trying to explain a topic you've just scratched the surface of.
bling is based on maths. The greatest tool for this is Excel spreadsheets. Using that you can do numerous calculations without it costing you a penny until you can spot the trends that are pretty consistent.
I can't verify that the risk intelligence test is actually helpful because the variables and selection of questions used aren't properly attuned to what is actually tested for. A word, phrase, or some altered statement of fact can be used to change the eventual true or false result so having a client give a proper percentage degree as to if a statement is good or bad is not accurate but if you were to present situations and ask whether certain outcomes are probable then I believe you will find better candidates for risk intelligence either the ones experienced in the matter or those that have applicable knowledge through other disciplines. The given examples are purposely difficult because the test doesn't actually want someone that knows the precise answer to each question. The test wants someone that has some doubt as to the evidence given as to whether the material you are presented will give you a proper result. This seminar doesn't actually give insight into what faculties and thought process are used by the best risk-takers therefore sadly won't be in a recommended list.
i like a bet on the races but i don't get how people can bet on cards i enjoy following trainers and horses progress and it makes me feel a part of something when i bet on a horse and it wins most i'd ever bet is £15 max and i've made over 3k this year alone.
But I love that you made this video. When I figured out how to do it, I couldn't figure out why no one would let me teach them. I mean no one. I literally lost all of my friends over it. Friends Id had for 20 years. They all thought I was off my rocker on drugs. It was the craziest thing in the world to me. It took me 4 years to finally go out and do it because they were in my head about it. At some point subconsciously I started to believe it was crazy too. Turns out it wasn't. And those friends all got the finger on my way out the door.
It's a shame the website is down now. Without the test I don't think we get any insight on the sports betters in question from the video. The 2 groups were computerised gamblers and the intuitive gamblers, with the latter being discussed. Once you take into account the 3 decision points (thresholds, bet size, & expected value), with other data, you are close to creating a system. If you have a systematic strategy it doesn't matter whether it is programmed (automated), or manually performed, the logic behind them is the same. What's interesting (for me at least) is how exactly they think, rather than stating they take some variables and eventually come to a decision.
Here is an example of a poor communicator, though knowledgeable ,failed to put across his thoughts in a simple, elegant manner and share practical and actionable insights. Instead watch LIV BOERLEE on the same subject who has 2 talks on this subject. Just brilliant! It's on TED website. Watch the 5 minute talk first ( 3 lessons in decision making..)
Although the general approach is correct, the presenter is not presenting the information correctly for the poker segment at least, it is more of a strategic game than a physiological/emotional intelligence game.
Look at the pollsters compared to the betting companies. The betting companies are far and away more accurate. Experts in betting study the bookmakers and make rational/mathematical decisions. Ask yourself do you make better decisions when more is at risk, or whether to have bacon or eggs for breakfast. I suggest when risking money you take more care. We experts are risking our own funds, in many cases a large amount of funds, so we don't take this decision making lightly. Our reasoning process has been honed.
Well, do this then: Bet everything you have and everything you can borrow on the Bills vs. Kansas City this Sunday. As of this writing the Bills are getting 2 and a half points. Not sure which is the better bet: The Bills or betting the game under 56 and a half. Thank me later. Mahomes is toast.
Not all gamblers are fools. The vast majority are, though, because: they bet on games that have the worst odds, such as Keno, Big Six and Slots. Even if they play the games with the odds least against them, such as Craps, Blackjack and Baccarat, they often don't know the best strategies and even worse don't know how to manage money. A study was done in Las Vegas casinos a while back which showed at any given time, 71% of gamblers were up (had more money than they started with)....what percentage of people left with more than they started .....5%
He said pokerplayers twice in the beginnin, I think he meant blackjack players the second time. Also the site is down. It started somewhere in 2010 from what I can see.2017 it is obsolete?
Watch at 1.25 speed
The best comment on this video
I don't know why all these TED people speak so slowly
Thankyou lol
did u know u have the same name has a famous tennis player
He talks slow because that is the right way to speak to a life audience. Not the same has watching an edited video. The more time you spend on the internet the slower real life becomes. Careful...😉
One more thing professional gamblers know the battle is within themselfs and not the actual game! This is what makes us!
So true. It is all about self control
That is what I’ve found. It’s a battle against greed, wanting more, and other character flaws
@chanh diep can I get your email please
The books give us the most dangerous thing. TIME.
Some professional gamblers, but not all, also know that the word is 'themselves'.
Whoever you are who can't sleep tonight, is tired or sad, believe that there will be tomorrow that will light up your beautiful days.
You just need to endure a little more, a little more, and a little more ...
Thank you for being patient, thank you for being able to survive. And as you read this, promise yourself that you will be able to get through your toughest days in the future.
Promise to keep smiling, no matter how you are ...
You deserve to be happy :)
Thank you. Needed that.
Thank you my brother
I do ecommerce and this is precisely how I select products to sell. This kind of thinking has wide applications and should be considered deeply.
no matter what it all starts with discipline, money mgmt, bank roll, will power, and the ability to know when to walk away.
Every gambler knows
The secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away
And knowin' what to keep
Agree
I literally sing while reading your comment'
And somewhere in the distance, the gambler, he broke even.
Sing it Kenny. Know when to hold'em know when to foldem. Know when to walk away lol
Know when to Run!
The topic covered here is probably the most fundamental problem that most gamblers fail to overcome. First of all let me say that you must first be playing a game in which the odds can be larger than the actual probability at certain points in the game. This is the first fundamental flaw amongst gamblers. They prefer simplicity citing complexity as the enemy when in actual fact the opposite is true. The greater the complexity the greater the opportunity, usually. Just ask a punter why he plays the slots in preference to horse racing and he will say that he has a better chance of winning !, what he really means is that he has fewer variables to consider. The other problem that faces gamblers or at least those playing a game which offers opportunity, is that their approach is based around finding winners and not finding value. In horse racing they focus on whats going to win rather than is their a bet in the race. This is not surprising as their first exposure to Racing is via 'experts' in the media who operate in exactly the same way. Finally one thing the speaker did not touch upon which I think might be interesting is what value or opinion do successful gamblers have towards money. My guess is that ironically they are less driven by it than people think.
Mark Littlewood .uk uhh
+Mark Littlewood
"First of all let me say that you must first be playing a game in which the odds can be larger than the actual probability at certain points in the game."
What does that mean?
Are you saying that the player/gambler has to be able to get a mathematical edge at some point during play?
Mark Littlewood bloody well said mate. You got any tips going?
@@ZakBurrell To my knowledge, it is fairly well known and accepted that the only casino games which can be consistently beaten by strategic play are blackjack and some types of video poker. To win you have to learn the proper playing strategy for each respective game, and in the case of blackjack, you have to learn how to count cards. But even after someone does this they only gain a very small advantage over the house, typically a fraction of a percent on average.
On very rare occasions some slot machines, namely progressives and those which are required/guaranteed to pay out a mini jackpot before a certain value is hit, can be beaten as well. But the progressive jackpot has to be very high, or you have to play a slot machine when it is very close to paying out the mini jackpot. If you have some idea of the average theoretical payout for the game you can calculate how much you are expected to lose before you hit the mini jackpot(which is guaranteed to hit by a certain dollar amount; there is a "counter" which tracks and moves, increases, by a small increment each time a given amount of money is played.
However, my real tip and best advice is to not gamble.
@@mydogskips2 he means that value is found when the probability of winning and the payout odds intersect. For instance putting a smaller amount on a long shot win can be a great opportunity because there is less upfront cash you must risk to make the supposedly riskier wager. These opportunities can further be examined by the prospective bettor to find instances where for whatever reason the betting public has come down far too much in favor of the favorite to find truly great value bets. The psychological trick here is to never fall too far in love with your evaluation and remember that dogs are dogs for a reason and to keep value bets modest.
Expert gamblers exploit market inefficiencies, they make bets where the odds on offer are higher than the 'true' odds of the bet winning, thats all it boils down to in every situation. Card Counters increase their bets when a deck or shoe is unbalanced enough. Sports bettors take advantage of lines that are inaccurate based on their models. Horse Players make their own book of prices and wager on the runners that are underbet by the public.
Poker winning is based on accurately assessing the range of hands your opponent is likely to hold and calculating your equity as a percentage. You bet if the pot odds are higher than that percentage, although it gets more tricky because of implied odds and variance.
I'm a life long gambler, and here's something you can learn from me: if you have an edge, or advantage, no matter how small, with enough time it can reap substantial rewards.
Yes, having decent and various criterias for choosing your actions within a sport bet can provide edge, if you spot a repeating event in different matches in certain sports (horse racing is my case) and you take advantage of this possible pattern you will profit big time in the long term
Lol
@@ekim955yt if you bet you should know spotting value is the main way to profit, way better if we talk about exchange betting
As a fellow long time gambler have a big enough bankroll to survive the short term "bad luck" variance
Wow this young man gets it.
Excellent Lesson on Risk Management. Thank you sir, you are a genius
You gotta know when to hold em
Know when to fold em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run.
Quixote 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Quixote You never count your money when you sitting at the table, There will be time enough for counting, When The Dealing is done.
I heard that song before
…. You gotta know when to
i'm all in
As a trader this was explained perfectly
*SAVE TIME:*
*Answer to the title of this video is here.* 11:00
GOD bless you
Yes Mr Dylan is Correct in his assumption that there are certain dedicated individuals who study games of Chance and reverse engineer them So well that they Know every possible outcome that game of Chance will display and then develope a divide and Conquer law of averages arbritage Deterministic Algorithm. Similar to Quantum Artificial Intelligence. He is Probably A Expert Gambler Himself To Indentify that Skillset are a Genius Much Respect Mr Dylan
He's wrong you can be a expert & still enjoy it with thrills. You won't win every time just because your expert which will allow you to sustain excitement when you do win!
Yep, tourney play is what keeps the excitement up for me in my grind.
Really well articulated talk by Mr Evans. Unfortunately the test link doesn't work anymore.
Its old af
I am a poker and blackjack player who also played Baccarat. Many people think that Baccarat is a pure game of luck but it is not. Professional Baccarat players will not lose in the game as easily as novices do. The issue of skill in Baccarat lies in knowing the safer bet, the amount one should bet, and when to walk away. In a sense, it is also a game where important skills shall be exercised to increase the player's chances of winning.
show rusult
I agree. I'd rather just increase my luck. I lack the skill and discipline demanded of reality. Success on reality's terms is much more difficult to accomplish whatever one's knowledge and ability. Kudos for the virtue of achieving success in spite of the odds. The limits of possibility are abruptly realized if luck is misunderstood.
Using probabilities in daily life and tools of logic is very different than always 'taking' the odds the house gives you, which nobody has an edge and will inevitably lose as time goes on
In poker you don't play against the house
@@NESTEAftw - Yes, but the house whittles away at the available money, removing a little bit from the total each hand, squeezing the players, until their light bill is paid, and the dealers. Then the bums fight over what is left.
Years ago i read a book "how to get rich slowly but surely" written by a college professor. He cites a technique called "decision accounting " and adapts it to
stock market. He too prescribes putting a number on hunches and estimated subjective
probabilities. His name is, if i remember correctly William T Morris. The ideas in the
above TEDX runs parallel to Prof. William T Morris ideas. The prof's book was
thought provoking. Iread it in 1978.
+Jose Francis
I wanna add some more. William T Morris also suggests drawing a systems chart showing how you and the market interact. You draw one and two weeks later you draw another systems chart/diagram. 88 per cent chance the second one is far better than the first one. The prof says that with some
tweaking you can earn 9-11 per cent for long term (20-30)years and nurse a
small amount to a fortune in the long run.Learn what the market does to
your behavior.And not the contrary. Develop skill and do not depend on luck.
jose francis,aged 59.5years,from Cochin, India
jose.vadekeyil@sbi.co.in
yeah man i agree as a pro poker player i have software to quote unquote improve what would be called my instincts and allows me to attach a number to a degree / equity % in a lot of situations which has allowed me to hone my intuition as some people call it. I don't call it intuition because intuition in my book is a guess that can be wright but sometime it turns on you. Intuition as some call it in my book i would consider that gambling and i want a edge and being able to articulate my thoughts out loud if need be.
Jose Francis
My risk intelligence test results were enlightening:
A PHP Error was encountered
Severity: Notice
Message: Undefined variable: main_content
Filename: includes/template.php
Line Number: 20
Lol
At least you found an error, I couldn’t even get that much of a response...
Is it me or does he say Poker players twice when enumerating the 3 tribes? 3:24 3:35
Yes completely contradicted himself too lol
***** The second tribe was the blackjack players, he just made a mistake..
***** The second tribe was the blackjack players, he just made a mistake..
+Ruben Vazquez Amos Nothing more than something reminiscent of a Freudian slip then.
he should have said blackjack players the second time. listen to the next sentence..
The pros walk into a casino with 100 and try to win 10... Vice versa with the casual gambler
Daniel Romo you're right bro...
There are several factors in how to win sports bets. One resource I discovered which successfully combines these is the *TheSportsCash. Com* definately the best system i've seen.Check out the interesting information .
Daniel Romo, so you’re saying we should put £100 on a 1/10?
There are no pros. There are some people who make money at sports betting but they don't hang around in casinos. Please show me a pro?
@@bradleywray2959 if it has good value.
As a profit gambler I must say that I didn't know that there is a scientific explanation of what I do. While watching the video I kept thinking "oh that's exactly how I do it"
What do you gamble on?
@@HibiscusFlowerFC mma
You think glover is worth a punt next weekend?
@@nialltumulty6866 hard to predict, I'd skip Glover fight, Prochaska's ground game wasn't tested yet so we don't know what to expect
Can u advise me on betting on soccer games?
Very Educative and I must personally thank you for this piece
Money management is key.
You are exactly right! Managing your bankroll and leaving while you are ahead is the only way to success. Most people stay too long at the fair and blow all their winnings back. You CAN win at certain times (sessions), so you've got to leave with a profit when that happens.
becoming homeless is the key
I am a Pro sports bettor, and I have done both the research and intuition picks. However, I never thought of sports bettors like this, Mr. Evans gave me a whole different perspective about sports bettors. I really enjoyed watching this video as I can relate to it in every way possible. However, I don't think I will change my approach to sports betting to seem more intelligent , I will continue to do my research and take notes instead of just pure intuition and numbers from my head. Moreover, I have done many bets and picks such as the Patriots on the super bowl. Everyone was betting against Tom Brady, but i know you don't bet against that man, ever.
Better get in on this: Bet the Bills this Sunday or, if you prefer, take the game under 56 and a half. You will win, I can FEEL it.
Dang! You must be good! I'd rather be a bookie, its way better odds than bettor odds. I can't afford the vigorish.
Start small build your empire there is no quick way it takes years to become comfy 👍👍👍👍
Working hard for easy money!
I recommend the movie 'Rounders' for those who like this subject. Good movie exploring these aspects - particularly John Turturro's work-like approach vs Matt Damon/Ed Norton characters' approach.
Great movie!
" pay that man his money"
Teddy KGB
When Matt Damon's character figured out the "Tell" vs the Russian guy with the Oreos....freakin brilliant 👍🏼
A better movie to watch, and more realistic, since it's based on an actual case, is "Owning Mahowny". Phillip Seymour Hoffman is brilliant.
@@skinovtheperineum1208 as usually, bad end 😁😁😁
Very succinct. One of the best talks I've heard on the subject. It will also help me explain myself to my doubting friends and relatives who have no idea about probabilities (all toaster-buyers).
Ham and eggers
All this did was make me log in to my poker account
+Jessica Kipling nice assuming you are a winner? I watched this after playing poker all day. What site do you play on?
same
Jessica Kipling 😂😂😂
Good Vid. Funny though at 4:04 in the vid | the online element greatly reduces the psychology element of poker he focuses on. Really it's quite a bit of all things mentioned though Systematic and some great players are more intuitive as well, but most winners I'd say are very systematic... Where do you play Jess?
should be mandatory for all high school students. oh but that would produce far fewer sheeple!
I was really looking forward to talking this test, turns out the internet ages very fast.
What happened to the website? Projection Point doesn't seem to exist anymore?
Poker players, Blackjack players, Sports better but he forgot one extremely large group of gamblers... investment bankers...
It is gambling. The people who favor this so called investment
banking are only fooling themselves. If it was 100%
why do they need your money.
Hello!!
Juan Zamora you don't appear to understand what Investment Banking is.
what is investment banking anyway?
Stocks, house market, metals, etc. You lose because they win.
You have no idea what investment banking is
This guy is right on. Trust me.
Comments taught me more!!
I watched this whole video just to quote the legend Kenny Rogers “You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em”
When a person wants to gamble and doesn't want to use their own money, they find ways to convince others. Some use Statistical Inference and Risk Intelligence to support their arguments.
????
Dont make a decision if you are overconfident!
very true man!
OK thats a nice intro, where's the content
Intelligence when considering risk it’s what the speaker talks about here.
To make the analysis and end up with a number saying if something have this and that percentage chance of working out.
Then look at the market and see if the odds is good enough and decide to give it a go or pass.
Betting is never a game of "who will win". You need to go that extra mile and decide how big chance in percent a bet have to hit home.
Either by calculations or by making estimates based on gathering data and process it and come up with that percentage number as he describe about those people that was betting on horses and they did the process in their head without any calculations.
Don't believe, don't put confidence or pessimism into the bet, simply look at the numbers and do the call based on that.
Learn how to write in English before offering up any more of your 'wisdom'.
Sadly the site is no longer available (?)
I have been trading for over 30 years and I will tell you my best trades have the lowest confidence going in. High confidence is usually due to prior move or past evidence and therefore low confidence with rules met have a higher probability of working.
Do you mean your biggest wins have come despite betting on what you think that in more likelihood was the dog?
@S BTrades. You might not understand what he is talking about. This guy is addressing an issue that most traders/gamblers don't understand, which is odds in betting. Lot's average gamblers/traders would stop losing money if they figure out the odds first, before starting to become the game instead of being part of the game. Also, Dylan is an outstanding presenter. I don't know him personally but have deep respect for someone standing on the stage and telling a story. Where is your presentation?
I kept waiting for there to be an actual insight in this video but there seems to be a lot of stating the obvious here
Exactly
Dr Tune Many people don't seem to come to terms with the obvious, though, non-expert gamblers especially.
Yeah, possibly the most underwhelming Ted Talk I've seen. And I'm a pro poker player and was obviously grabbed by the title
There are many factors in sports picks. One place I found that succeeds in merging these is the Alchemy Hasty Fixer (check it out on google) definately the most useful resource that I have ever heard of.look at all the amazing information .
Just wonderful, I've been looking for "horse racing betting methods" for a while now, and I think this has helped. Have you ever come across - Senonnor Peymma Eradicator - (should be on google have a look ) ? Ive heard some decent things about it and my mate got great success with it.
This is a decent talk if you wanted to know why people gamble but very uneducational for those so called expert gamblers that already know they gamble because there's an EV edge for them and most others just gamble for the thrill.
Things should always be explained as though the person knows very little on the subject. Some poker players also struggle a lot with believing they can learn something from anyone. The smartest people tend to seem most interested in what others have to say. It’s quite strange
Exactly. You get what you pay for. Losing is a thrill for amnesiacs.
Baseball is the only thing to bet because in most cases you can bet on games for which odds were established before the previous game is played,a tremendous advantage in a sport in which the majority of teams win about half of their games.
Wat
Is there another place where one can take the risk intelligence assessment test? The projection point site is no longer online
I'm happy because I happen to watched this video. ❤️😇
Funny how he didn't include baccarat as a catalyst to beat the odds professionally. I guess there just aren't that many of us around. Better that it stays that way.
Exactly lol
You are forgetting to mention all the work that goes into being successful in your chosen sport...Choosing winners is not only a talent but a lot of hard work goes into the analysis of these sports...Most successful betters only bet on one sport...
a lot of hard work goes in to each of them in there own right. I used to be a card counter and didn't like the scrutiny i faced so i transitioned to poker successfully and i put in a lot of hard work. Everyday i put in minimum a couple hours of home work and there have been days 15 hours all home work and no poker playing because i needed to understand the ins and outs of a situation to gain a edge on other pros that i play with on a daily basis. I even have revisted it the same home work situation multiple times hours at a time for a few weeks so i can ingrain it in my brain and come up with a over all strategy and multiple counter strategies based on how they react to it. Then i go play test it out and find a new reaction or adjustment i didn't think would be made and have to go back and understand how the adjustment effects my decisions whether it was in my favor or against me and how to counter it. Most poker players are lazy as shit and that is why so many can not beat poker online no more because it rewards work ethic.
Spoken like a true addict.
it's not hard work if you enjoy doing it
Very good point, I do the same, I don't know much about soccer but just look at tipsters win rates.
Jhon John Jon Jon Doe where did u find those "homeworks", what type od videos or sites are they?
Gamblers, traders, every other walk of life , 95 percent are LOSERS. Why , it all boils down to a plan and discipline.
The test seems to be unavailable online. DNS server cannot be reached
The battle is between you and yourself...not you and the house.
As a day trader, super cool vid, thanks 😊
I've spent a lot of time playing poker and I might not be an expert but I think i'm good enough to really think you miss the mark on a lot of things. Also, although you don't really say so directly I get the impression that you think expert gamblers arn't really aware of the concepts you're talking about. In reality I think it's closer to the other way around. Most expert gamblers are very learned and aware of the concepts you talk about. On the other hand, I feel like you're fumbling around in the dark trying to explain a topic you've just scratched the surface of.
amen.!!!!!!
bling is based on maths. The greatest tool for this is Excel spreadsheets. Using that you can do numerous calculations without it costing you a penny until you can spot the trends that are pretty consistent.
Interesting! Would you care to elaborate on this,please?
Guy at 7.22 right smack dab in the middle is having none of it
took the test....it said im average. got 56.8 something
send the link of the test
Please share the link
A better than a 50/50 chance? Have you heard of the 'Kelly number?'
It basically describes Financial Traders.
I found this very interesting being an intelligent gambler
You are anything but intelligent.
@@ekim955yt LMAO the fact you judge someone based on a youtube comment shows how deficiant you are 🤣
I can't find a working link to the test now. can anyone share please?
Same here. The Twitter accounts Last Post is from 2013 i guess it's shut down.
I beg to differ with you. Roulette is strictly a game of chance only for the novice who doesn’t understand math!
The real victim here is this guy’s work. It’s probably valid and interesting. Too bad we’ll never know by listening to him deliver his research.
I'm thinking of going on over 2.5 goals in an irish soccer match tonight, can u advise me what to do , how to cover etc? Thanks
This guy clearly knows sweet FA about poker :)
The projection point website is not showing up. I want to take the test
I can't verify that the risk intelligence test is actually helpful because the variables and selection of questions used aren't properly attuned to what is actually tested for. A word, phrase, or some altered statement of fact can be used to change the eventual true or false result so having a client give a proper percentage degree as to if a statement is good or bad is not accurate but if you were to present situations and ask whether certain outcomes are probable then I believe you will find better candidates for risk intelligence either the ones experienced in the matter or those that have applicable knowledge through other disciplines. The given examples are purposely difficult because the test doesn't actually want someone that knows the precise answer to each question. The test wants someone that has some doubt as to the evidence given as to whether the material you are presented will give you a proper result. This seminar doesn't actually give insight into what faculties and thought process are used by the best risk-takers therefore sadly won't be in a recommended list.
i like a bet on the races but i don't get how people can bet on cards i enjoy following trainers and horses progress and it makes me feel a part of something when i bet on a horse and it wins most i'd ever bet is £15 max and i've made over 3k this year alone.
For casino gambling you need to be a savant to find an edge. For sports betting if you're good you can find edges quite easily
Bet the house on the Bills this coming Sunday vs. the KC Chiefs. Bills get 2.5 points or go under 56.5 pts. total.
@@skinovtheperineum1208 0/2, well done
@@floridabeacheshighdefdrone1371 - Nobody bet their house. If they had, the Bills would have won.
@@skinovtheperineum1208 lol. Good reply
Is the test still there? Cant find it
your website is down sir, please renew your hosting plan
Here, I'll give more valuable insight in a single sentence: People hate laying odds.
and chickens hate laying eggs.......
Website not there any longer
The website does not exist.
I bought a toaster, it went on fire.
Beautiful!! There ARE no guarantees.
Website is not working. I wanna take this test because I'm a gambler!!
But I love that you made this video. When I figured out how to do it, I couldn't figure out why no one would let me teach them. I mean no one. I literally lost all of my friends over it. Friends Id had for 20 years. They all thought I was off my rocker on drugs. It was the craziest thing in the world to me. It took me 4 years to finally go out and do it because they were in my head about it. At some point subconsciously I started to believe it was crazy too. Turns out it wasn't. And those friends all got the finger on my way out the door.
It's a shame the website is down now. Without the test I don't think we get any insight on the sports betters in question from the video. The 2 groups were computerised gamblers and the intuitive gamblers, with the latter being discussed. Once you take into account the 3 decision points (thresholds, bet size, & expected value), with other data, you are close to creating a system. If you have a systematic strategy it doesn't matter whether it is programmed (automated), or manually performed, the logic behind them is the same. What's interesting (for me at least) is how exactly they think, rather than stating they take some variables and eventually come to a decision.
What's interesting to me is that you would write all that blather without realizing that the word is 'bettors'.
Here is an example of a poor communicator, though knowledgeable ,failed to put across his thoughts in a simple, elegant manner and share practical and actionable insights. Instead watch LIV BOERLEE on the same subject who has 2 talks on this subject. Just brilliant! It's on TED website. Watch the 5 minute talk first ( 3 lessons in decision making..)
Website is not working, has the name of website changed ?
Your website is down sir.
Can't find the test
The beginning of this video is wrong. Roulette is next to impossible to win on a daily basis but virtual roulette isn't impossible.
First you have the poker players, and then you have the poker players.
it is what it is
😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭 I thought I was hearing him wrong like sir what
Poker players, Blackjack players, Sports bettors
He was nervous. But the intent was clear. Blackjack players.
LMAO!!!!!
Where is the test? The website isn’t there anymore?
Although the general approach is correct, the presenter is not presenting the information correctly for the poker segment at least, it is more of a strategic game than a physiological/emotional intelligence game.
The cited test doesn't work. I tried it in multiple browsers.
Look at the pollsters compared to the betting companies. The betting companies are far and away more accurate. Experts in betting study the bookmakers and make rational/mathematical decisions. Ask yourself do you make better decisions when more is at risk, or whether to have bacon or eggs for breakfast. I suggest when risking money you take more care. We experts are risking our own funds, in many cases a large amount of funds, so we don't take this decision making lightly. Our reasoning process has been honed.
Well, do this then: Bet everything you have and everything you can borrow on the Bills vs. Kansas City this Sunday. As of this writing the Bills are getting 2 and a half points. Not sure which is the better bet: The Bills or betting the game under 56 and a half. Thank me later. Mahomes is toast.
Website doesnt exist anymore
Where is the website he talked about?
Not all gamblers are fools. The vast majority are, though, because: they bet on games that have the worst odds, such as Keno, Big Six and Slots. Even if they play the games with the odds least against them, such as Craps, Blackjack and Baccarat, they often don't know the best strategies and even worse don't know how to manage money. A study was done in Las Vegas casinos a while back which showed at any given time, 71% of gamblers were up (had more money than they started with)....what percentage of people left with more than they started .....5%
Excellent.
He said pokerplayers twice in the beginnin, I think he meant blackjack players the second time. Also the site is down. It started somewhere in 2010 from what I can see.2017 it is obsolete?
I was just on the site and took the test. It must be back up.
What is the real difference between a professional gambler and a person with an addiction?
Watch at 1.5x speed....he talks way too slowly. You're welcome.
Roulette is an art, it can be worked on
Site is down
We used and determined expected values in the actuary 102 class I took
Where is the free test?
Nice! Really agree with everything, hope most people could understand this