For High Growth, Govt Must Reverse Atmanirbhar, Rethink Econ Policies-Former CEA Arvind Subramanian
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 ส.ค. 2024
- In an interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Arvind Subramanian, who served as Chief Economic Advisor from October 2014 till June 2017 called upon the government to abandon its national champion policy in favour of an approach that treats all firms equally, lower trade barriers whilst ensuring greater integration into global supply chains and improve policymaking to give India a stable economic environment in which manufacturing and exports can flourish.
Speaking specifically about the production-linked scheme (PLI), which he calls “subsidy-raj”, he said “it carries all the risks of the old licence-raj … hard to enforce, driven by arbitrary decision-making and creates a system of entitlement.”
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Thank God for Dr. Karan Thapar and Dr. Arvind Subramanian 🙌
Very insightful interview karan. Now, we could understand why he quit this Govt in 2018 and where the govt went/is going wrong.
NRI gives us a true picture of India as they are living in the US.
Hahaha love it.
Very candid and insightful analysis by Dr. Subramanian. Unfortunately the ruling dispensation has scant regard for any intelligent economists and trudges along at the whims of the Vishwaguru whose sole priority is to win elections. Sadly, unemployment and closure of MSMEs will keep rising. 2As will continue to be favoured at the cost of annihilation of any competition.
I see this as highly delusive conversation between 2 scheming individuals each with his own set of sinister hidden agenda. Karan Thapar's anti Modi agenda crafty implemented through the progression of his line of questions to Arvind Subramanian and those of the former CEA who through his baleful and tactfully disguised reasoning, tries to discredit government fiscal policy with his sinister and portentous arguments intended to push policy makers, through galvanizing public opinion, to open Indian markets to MNCs (especially those out of the US ) in non-core sectors through favorable policies and tariff reduction . We did the right thing to stay out of RCEP at this stage. Unfortunately for both , the Indian public is smart enough to read between the lines and recognize their true intent.
btw what's you view on subramanian swamy policies?
@@gazz01 There is an old African proverb that says 'If you put a bone in the dog's mouth it doesn't bark.' That's why Swamy was 'nominated' to the Rajya Sabha by Modi - Shah. Get it ?????
As an economist i fully agree with all the advices made by Mr Subramanyam. A great intellectual and policy maker..... He was the first EA to GoI. My humble question to him is, Why this kind of Statements comes from these former policy makers of current Govt only from Overseas??!?? They had no g........ts to speak in India, who stopped them..... Whatever is happening, is not a one day policy affair......
THAT IS THE REASON HE QUIT AS Economic advisor. Because. the current government had different prioritiy
It's not really about having the guts to speak, it's more about being heard in the right quarters. Simple, if your value is not appreciated at home then go elsewhere where people will value you.
First EA? Why should he when Herr Modi says education in best universities is useless
He is never going to see or reply to your question. It will be lost in the gazillions of bytes on the internet.
😮😮@@atulbhopale
....only YOU could score such interviews, Karan....!!!
ULTIMATE & SUPERB...👍👍
It's a myth that our industries have been atmanirbhar. The technologies were always imported, the parts are always imported and has only increased. All the industries use mostly China made parts and chemicals. The closest to atmanirbhar is the farming which uses Indian soil, water and ingenuity. But this too has been under constant attack since the time the chemicals took over with ever increasing dependence on imported technologies as the farmlands degrade
Made in china..assembled in India
Even china is not atmanirbhar. They import computer chip from taiwan which are packaged in thailand or vietnam, also many other advanced components from Japan and South Korea. In today's age of globalized supply chains, you cannot expect to make everything by yourself, you need to plug yourself into that supply chain by making some of the components or maybe assembling those components.
Concept of aatmanirbhar goes against globalisation, it will disrupt existing supply chains and will hurt us even more!
Only path is less reliance from China.
@@rohitghoshal China has the highest concentration of world's rare earth minerals. Today China is not importing even much tech. They used the capitalist money to build their local economy, tech, science (its in top peer reviewed research). China has become factory, waste processing (so that developed nations have clean rivers & air & no legal issues)
Thanks!
India's youth is paying the price for being a-political !
India's youth ( excluding the minority educated who are upwardly mobile) is preparing to become cannon fodder as they are brainwashed into thinking that minorities and the 'other' are responsible for their woes.
@@jammRJ you are correct but they are brainwashed because they and their parents remained ignorant about politics in India.
Really enjoyed the interview, However, I would like to share a personal anecdote regarding the Antmanirbhar Point mentioned by the esteemed Arvind Subramanian.
Lately, due to higher prices of freight, disruption in Supply chains around the world and rise in commodity prices globally, small time manufactures like me are given a CHANCE to make products which were earlier imported in India.
Now the quality initially was not at par, I agree, but since people were LOOKING ( being the imperative word) for substitutes I was given a chance to invest and develop products which earlier I could not have done.
When I started getting regular orders , I ended up further improving the entire process and am still improving it .
It might sound selfish, but when we talk about best products at best prices, we tend to forget that it takes time to develop such things and if not given ENOUGH TIME or CHANCES to develop, then it will not happen.
Eve after 70+ years independence, we are still developing at a very slow pace… we should be ashamed of this and Indians are very capable and we need to unleash their potential
Which is what happening now
You will excel in stand-up comedy....😄 Don't know if you really understand what Aravind is saying, or just shitting here, because it is social media.
So much knowledge to gain from this interview.
Excellent talk , thanks Karan and Dr for this dicussions. Couple of points
1. One more parameter should be added into GDP calc to ensure that we have high growth. That parameter is Manufacturing Hate. No other govt has done more to give fillip to this industry and adding this unit to GDP calc will add additional point.
2. GST was stalled by the ruling party for 10 yrs under the leadership of a CM who then became PM. Isn't that a pertinent point to dicuss and understand the reasoning behind delaying it for 10 yrs. After the CM becomes PM, GST is passed. Then the union creates distrust by not disbursing compensation between Union and states then that says a lot about our politics.
3. Encouraging two conglomerates by preferential treatment in both hardware and software development then isn't that corruption. We don't know how much money is coming in through the opaque Electoral bonds.
Think about these we are so afraid to even call corruption by its name nowadays.
Corruption ended in 2014, we voted for it to end and now its erased from our vocabulary except when we want to refer to it take down parties that ruled before 2014.
@@jammRJ To be fair, we can say the knowledge about corruption ended in 2014. Now all govt agencies are managed well so that no news comes out.
The opposition is also managed showing them some of their old sins and threatening
Phenomenal growth of few corporate is doubtful , whether Govt supported them for backward support of politics.
Let us wait and see what comes out once the regime change.
7 years, not 10!
What you learned some useful from this? Well get well soon.
@@humaneffortwins5570 winners write the history and choose right or wrong.
Man i remember him trying to defend the government some years back, and now he is standing diametrically opposite to them. Such are times!
@@arshsingh5714 ur hardware is old and ur software is corrupt due to virus
That's why he left the govt .. It's obvious..
Please watch the show again. He has explained most, if not all of the schemes of the government ... in most positive ways. He has doubts when it crosses his ideology. But government comes along with a popular mandate that the armchair economists do not carry.
You Modi Bakths will never understand
@@rajmunuswamy675 And You Andh Virodhis will NEVER understand either.
The last 10 minutes made me sad. We lost our chance by electing and continuing to support an inept government. No wonder the rich are leaving India
Much worst part is that the youth that was supposed to be the demographic "dividend" chose to be poor by electing such a government and now the same "demographic" dividend is soon becoming a "demographic" liability.
You chain/handcuff Mandir Mafia that has 10,000s of tons of Gold that freezed huge money
then controll Malaya, Choksi, Modi..
RCEP:
Unfavorable Trade balance points towards lack of competitiveness of your exports. Pulling out of RCEP will only exacerbate the problem by Providing due advantage to the countries that sign the FTA. Also, outsourcing cheaper inputs available in these markets along with favorable terms could've been leveraged to make our exports more competitive. Therefore the "Act East" policy gets converted into "Erect East" policy with such a protectionist attitude. Government is making it harder for Indian economy to compete with china as a global manufacturing hub and integrate it into the global supply chain. That too at a moment when capital is fleeing China( because people have gotten richer and wages have risen, rendering labour intensive activities uncompetitive that China was doing and also due to government clamping down on private sector). A $150 billion worth of export space is being vacated for others to fill. So, an investor fleeing China and looking for a new destination won't choose India as he won't get the benefits that he can enjoy in a country like Vietnam that has signed the agreement. Also, the imports they need would cost more. That's counterproductive.
You’ve just basically repeated what this Brown University guy was saying 🧐
India is a larger economy which cannot give the kind of concessions that these companies demand We have a larger domestic industry to protect.
Q
@@crusoerob8550 Exactly. Just read a paper on Atmanirbhar program two weeks ago. As I understand, this is a program to spur indigenization of critical sectors particularly in advanced tech manufacturing, energy and defense - which is at the core of your trade imbalance and creates massive capital outflow. I can’t think of any country that has closed its trade deficit without incentivizing indigenization. Without this, you could run a serious risk of not having local IP ownership and capacity infrastructure for your any of your critical sectors - exposing you to technology colonization and fatal dependencies - we’ve seen how badly that hurts you at the start of the pandemic. The key to Atmanirbhar’s success for me is the speed, investment support and method used for indigenization and making sure we think carefully about cost/benefit during second and third order effects. If you do it right, we are looking at a virtuous cycle of quantum growth that could see India surpass Japan and Germany as the world’s third largest economy by 2031 and a world leader in advanced engineering and manufacturing. The country has massive potential to unlock in the next two decades.
@@alpha-engineer Well articulated. Thanks.
Kudos to Mr. Thapar for showing exemplary restraint, must have been difficult 😁. The timely intervention resulted in a very informative and directional conversation. This is not for the Government, which we know has no ear for knowledge anymore. This is for the citizens of this country for an in-depth introspection into their electoral choices and the direction they want this great country of ours to take. 👍
Mr Intellectual could u guarantee that a party other than BJP comes to power might give a level playing field to foreign investors with consistent policies? There are many loop holes in Mr Subramanian's points.
You chain/handcuff Mandir Mafia that has 10,000s of tons of Gold that freezed huge money
then controll Malaya, Choksi, Modi..
Karan should have asked questions on the issues of unemployment ,poverty ,rising inequality , hunger ,health and education ,social justice and farmers income and wage raise and other labour issues. But unfortunately no questions were asked on these important issue . Almost all economist talk about GDP and market economy and capitalism but they do not talk about that . Let me remind that Indias population is still largely poor ,illiterate and malnourished . India's resources should be used for the poor people ,the people of India are owners of the country . Each and every resource of India belongs to the poor people of India ,they have the first right over those resources and Govt should use national resources and assets in mitigating poverty ,raising the wages of labourers ,fighting the problem of unemployment and reducing the inequality and improve the living standards of poor people ,of those who are at the bottom of the pyramids .
Your concern is really appreciable.
Absolutely fascinating conversation...more of such discussions can replace the WhatsApp University rubbish
Successive Govts should appreciate the fact that the economic hardware and even software to a large extent are enrichments and enlargements of previous efforts and simply continuity. But most often these days the new Govts emphasise that previous governments have not done anything.
Insightful and thought provoking
extraordinary interview. must watch
Best journalist Karan Thapar 👌👌
Very explicit and insightful.
All this is fine but someone needs to look at the data from ASEAN's FTAs and its impact on those countries. While Vietnam has done well industrializing you will find that Indonesia has been reduced to a supplier of raw materials. This is not as simple as Arvind makes it sound. India is quite righty worried about being swamped by east asian manufacturing powers. The tariffs should be low but they can't be uniformly low, you will have to go into the weeds to actually build and grow local industry.
Very Interesting
Thanks
Superb insight. Excellent .
To derive max benefit to young India, in what is called "to reap demographic dividend", we must bring reforms and maximize growth ASAP. After 2050, it will be an uphill task.
A message to the Wire. Please interview more people from govt institutions with these scholar.s
Excellent mind blowing presentation of facts which our current Government is not disclosing.
God Bless you Dr. Subramanian . Well wishes of Great Country Salute you.
Modi does not like anyone who tells he is wrong. I can understant Chaiwala will not like this. People in India have elected Chaiwala person to run thier Government. Building Road etc does not remove
Proverty for the 80% of people who have beg for the food. India is going down each year.
Manilal Shah
Such a great time to listen Dr. ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN. I skipped my lunch to hear him today. I am happy that i got so much of great knowledge.
Shri Arvind Subramanian have made two very important suggestions for the rapid growth of Indian economy. The first is that the Policy making process should be improved and the second is that the fundamental change in the attitude of the Government is required. These two suggestions if implemented earnestly will certainly help in accelerating the growth of Indian economy.
Sounds arbit...
Excellent interview thanks Kara
Great Interview
Modi become bhogi of economic note bandi Gst all fail to deliver
Mr subramanium is keeping away from calling spade a spade..??
Lest a new post beckons ?
Really and absolutely benefited from this scholarly interview. Let the govt policymakers listen and amend wherever necessary.
Policy makers don't care for the views of these Harvard types. What matters is winning the next election? And economics don't matter in elections.
He is sooo correct by saying that ministers from current BJP government believe that Indian Market is so mammoth that everyone dies to come to our country. I remember one of the beurocrates wrote in an article (way back in 2015) that top BJP ministers used to behave arrogantly with top CEO's of MNC's believing that their market is soo big that they command more respect.
again at 34:15 - so many cabinet ministers (including ravi shankar prasad) said that even if we are growing at 6-7 percent, instead of 11-12 percent, its a growth right ?....i mean it was one of the most foolish statements made by BJP ministers !
This govt cannot absorbed Fdi to boost employment. Integration manufacturing must be the focus.
great 👍👍
Subramanian is wonderful! Karan, could you please keep your impatient hands away from our view when you are itching to ask the next question? In the first half of the interview you were doing an excellent job of listening and summarising but, apparently, lost patience in the second half to go back to your restless self. But you are improving!
Stock markets will come down crashing this year
India is going through structural changes. Some disruptions are natural. Now slowly it will stabilise. All the changes will start delivery
Only 2 step to make india rich.
1. Fixed minimum 2yr transfer policy in all govt sector.
2. Salary of all govt employees should not be more than per capita income.
More importantly,
3. No more than 2 terms for any prime minister.
4. Publicly funded elections with accountability of every rupee by CEC and CVC
5. Govt has to resign if doesn’t meet it’s common minimum program going into last quarter of its rule.
6. No one in the cabinet is more than 70 years of age or twice the average age of population whichever is lower.
7. Most importantly, citizens vote on basis of education credentials, tax returns, FIRs/cases records and public service/NGO record of each of their contestants in elections.
You can remove 1 and 2 if this is done. But who makes the rules? Mostly the people who are opposed to all of these
Well, if an idol of 2000 cr is more essential than testing asymptomatic people and those who come in contact with a covid positive person, it clearly shows where India is heading and it's definitely not like China.
There isn't a country of India's size that isn't atmanirbhar to a large extent.
This is a long-awaited one🤩. Thank you so much.
When a country is led by a leader who wants to lead n not who wants it to developed n take risks.... Trying to hide its weakness n uncompetitiveness... But how long in denial mode ?.
After Vajpayee i am only seeing Modi with some vision for development otherwise gandhi family and some regional parties was busy looting country.
Is India on the way to partial policy paralysis called worrisome software domain?
There must be some measures to protect the labour intensive small scale industries, so that they can survive in the competition of unequal.
bullshit. we a know after globalisation export have increased. they would have benifited
Rebooting India' s industrial policy requires political stability. The kind of genocidal policies emerging from Dharma Sansad and tactic support of the ruling elites makes one wonder : what is the trade off between good economic policy and strategy of winning the elections. Politicians are interested in good economics but their main concern is short term and coming to power is the only single point agenda. They don't have appetite for saner economic advice. In the process, instability in India will scare away investers- domestic and foreign
Brilliant discussion thanks Karan keep going
Great discussion by renowned economist Karan Thapar.
The echo chamber effect on Indian economy.....population dividend turned into gau rakshaks....mediocrity and cronyism is the hallmark of this dispensation....a paradigm shift is the need of the hour....
This govt has done much better in terms of economy and development than the UPA 1 and UPA 2 and more is yet to come. We have been successful in protecting our religion as well as increasing economy , its a win win situation for India.
Absolutely right Karan, we are slowly moving towards Chroni Capitalism..... And surprising to see, Arvind is a supporter of this!!!!!
Great work keep going
Who is running the economy? With a PM busy electioneering, giving freebies and baiting minorities and the opposition who is the real brain. Not Sitharaman or the other sycophantic "experts". Is it the big corporates indirectly telling the government what to do alongwith international monetary agencies? Not a single known economist or luminary works for Modi. All his predecessors had such experts.
Very true, I don’t this govt has any visionary CEA and nobody with any economic sense, the boss has the last word and that’s the law
In India all this process of Chroni Capitalism started from 1999, Policy failures started from NDA, carried forward by UPA, and groomed by the Current Govt and Arvind is also a part of it...... No one know who is Adani, Biyani , Damani, And the Family members of Ambani except Dhirajlal Ambani before 1999, and before 2010....... Who are the curators, its an open question Karan, pat comes reply!!!!!!!
It appears he is trying valiantly to put a balance. But facts speaks otherwise
Thapar, baba, please do some live telecast for questions and answers.
🙏🙏🙏
There is one more important point which the former CEA glossed over. India contemplated joining RCEP quite earnestly. They asked that Indian software professionals be allowed to freely migrate and work in the RCEP groupings. That was point blank refused unanimously by the grouping out of fear of "hordes" of Indian IT folks coming and taking high paying IT jobs in their countries. Yet in the same breath they had the audacity to demand that at the same time India open up its markets for consumer goods to be pushed into it from within the groupings, and thus killing whatever nascent domestic supply chains exist. Any grouping which refuses to allow one of the main sources of foreign remittances to thrive while demanding access to markets is one that must be kept at an arm's length.
The former CEA does raise some important points that the central govt would do very well to heed, but it wont, because in the end, in the economic sphere the central govt is a puppet of the 2 conglomerates cabal which is the tragedy.
GST is ****. Ask the simple question who was the advisor for the goverment for demonetisation? I see why this govermnet choose him to be economic advisor
Awesome discussions...
He allso part for the situation
If we import everything where will 140 crore indians get jobs! We're not in a situation to compete with China and other progressive countries. It's like the last student in a class (India) should try to become like a medium student (Iran etc) rather like the toppers (China etc.).
We should not dismantle the components of software without experimenting with improved alternatives.
Nice.
If this analysis is right, then it implies one thing that rural distress is too much bcz inflation Has been consistent 4-10 percent, urban salaries have been rising. In addition, it implies huge unemployment
Inflation in the US is worse than in India. But due to their high living std., It is easier to bear.
GST was bad for state finances & financial autonomy (the petrol blame game is result of it), bad for small business but yeah definitely good for MNCs who doesn't have to deal with state's requirements for its citizens..
Great work
1 Adani many Indians 1 Ambani several Indians!!which one do you choose.
Future FM
All Exs get wisdom only after breakup 😜
Excellent interview, loved it💯
Situation is very serious and bad ,rising prices,unemployment, and stagnation in economy.govt. Is doing nothing
Idea of endia? A brtish conglomerate is not a Nation.
Great interview. One needs a prime minister that has good well rounded education to get the best from the advisors. One cannot run with the hounds and also run with the hare. To many psycophants surround our pm. It's disastrous. Some one should explain and account for the drop from 8% to 3% of GDP BEFORE Covid. Billions were lost. Who's responsible?
Sikhism versus Hinduism. Under Sikh PM India was the beacon of hope as fastest growing economy. But under q Hindu PM India has turned into a beggars state once again. Choose the software (Sikhism or Hinduism) wisely .
Data does not flow out from centre. No transparency.
Not simple straight and sincere interpretation. Hiding the truth behind jugglary of words to confuse .
A view from my Alma Mater.
Atma Nirbhar should be at the core of India’s growth strategy now. With China getting aggressive and arrogant and a neighbour, there is no option on becoming Atma Nirbhar.
Brilliant
"AtmaNirbhar" public and "Parasite" Chowkidar Tadipaar team ! 🤔🤔🤔
India is on the right track and we need to fast track building National champions and look at what China has done, Japan has done
GDP China ka sabse ooper tha jab Bharat ka covid ke samay minus men tha.
Ab china ka kitna?
Aur Bharat ka kitna?
Kuchh chhupaana nahin public se press propagation nahin.
Truth ko hii public ke saamne dikhaana.
Satyameva jayate.
UNITED NATIONS kii jai.
Actually there is a cut off. We are a young population and they have to settle before they retire. Otherwise our country will have an adult population with no retirement
Muslims should be CAREFUL -- and should VOTE UNITEDLY and WITH THEIR BRAINS --- For example --- a constituency where Muslims are 20% 30% or even 40% -- the possibility of a Muslim candidate getting elected is very high --- but what happens --- Congress fields a Muslim candidate --SP fields a Muslim candidate ---BSP fields a Muslim candidate -- RLD fields a Muslim candidate --MIM fields a Muslim candidate ---while -- BJP fields a Hindu candidate --- So the Muslim Votes gets divided --- So BJP wins with Hindu Candidate in a Muslim area very easily ---- Maybe the Secular Parties are deliberately doing this to HELP BJP ---- and WEAKEN MUSLIMS POLITICALLY --- Therefore Muslims should focus on One single Party only --- Voting for MIM Owaisi is a GOOD OPTION for a change --- where where Muslims are 20% 30% or even 40% ---- A B Quadri --India
Good analysis by Dr. Subramanian the economist which is insightful as always, although there can never always be a consensus between an academic viewpoint and the ways of a government. This dichotomy is universal. The question now is how one sees layman Karan in all this. It's the politics of his summing up that's on your face which is absolutely out of place.... Dr. Subramanian will do good for himself and his audience if he chooses to whom he interacts on such important matters.
Market gurus will just say, creating jobs is not the responsibility of business or of government. Business goal is just maximization of profits for shareholders. Jobs who cares when everyone from big business and political parties are raking in the moolah.
Global economy not opening Indian services
How is this his first time? He should be called more
Why trade deficit with Korea japan asean has increased in spite of ftas in UPA time. Without developing the completiveness of the manufacturing sector labour reforms good infrastructure (shipping which is obsolete in India) good electricity supply (worse than any country) nothing will come. Blindly agreeing to fta will never help domestic industry. As a reference you can see the lecture of Prof Biswajit dhar from Jnu
Prof Biswajit dhar himself supports FTA's. The issue is that the current govt is averse to free trade, not that they see issues that they want to solve & then implement FTA. They are only signing FTA's with such countries which will not challenge our manufacturing like UAE, thus our manufacturing will never get competitive enough to become an export country.
Jobs for young loans for young entrepreneurs where are they
Like the current stars are it's difficult to talk about being independent I.e 'Atmanirbhar'. It's more of challenging yourself in this phase of pandemic times.
It's time to be practical and look for ways to save then spend.
All opposition needs kickbacks and want to improve economy of other nations
You chain/handcuff Mandir Mafia that has 10,000s of tons of Gold that freezed huge money
then controll Malaya, Choksi, Modi..
@@adnanadill it will be given to mosque and church.already money taken and spent on mosques and churches. They are scavangers on Hindus already. It's Hindus money churches and mosques get funds not audited.But temple money land is controlled by govt.is it happening any where in the world.Majority is suffering,so have to revolt.it will be serious in the coming days. Terance has limits...it's over now.
@@adnanadill did this rogue ask church or masjid reg their subversive activities? NDT,CNN foreign channels never ask. They are all against Hindus.including indian rogues. Day is not too far ..
@@adnanadill can he talk to Rahul,sonia, Digvijay like this ..no He needs all anti Hindu narratives.world knows it.
Doctor Karan, you have been speaking and interviewing so many intellectuals of our country discussing the problems that our country is facing today why don't you connect all these people together and make a new political party and implement there dreams and desires. Because simply talking about the problem, understanding the problem is not enough something concrete should be done to solve the problem otherwise you may keep on talking till the cows come home in other words you are plodding in the sand. Please do something practically to solve the problems of our country and you yourself may become the prime minister of the country isn't it that good idea?
👌🏼👌🏼👌🏼👍