Everything You’re Told About The Global Economy Is Wrong | Aaron Bastani Meets Philip Pilkington
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 มิ.ย. 2024
- We are in a drastically different world from the one most of us grew up in. This has been proven by the rapid escalation in the events in the middle east over the last six weeks.
No longer are we in a world where, essentially, the US run the show - and this has huge global implications - especially for Europe.
Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist and podcaster who co-hosts the 'Multipolarity' podcast. He sat down with Aaron to talk about what we get wrong about China, cheap high quality weapons technology and what we can learn from the Treaty of Versailles.
00:00 Intro
02:38 What is 'Multipolarity'
06:58 Who is Philip Pilkington?
11:40 Geopolitics people don't understand economics.
17:45 The financial cost of war
20:32 Israel/Gaza ripple effect
26:14 The middle east is changing
29:22 Is inflation coming back?
38:52 People are losing faith in institutions
41:58 What about China?
01:05:21 Europe doesn't have the tech
01:17:05 The Conservative party & demographic aging
01:27:54 Book recommendations
Novara Live broadcasts every weekday from 6PM on TH-cam and Twitch.
Episodes of Downstream are released Sundays at 6PM on TH-cam.
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Our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.k. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
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In Japan they have a government department which is dedicated to finding part time work and volunteer work for people over 65 years old. It is called the silver workforce. They did studies that found that people live healthier lives if they have some kind of part time/volunteer work in their old age. They have radio taiso (exercise) in the local park every morning... I lived in Japan for 22 years and would often join in the early morning exercises with the old folk. So I think we can learn a lot from Asian culture, concerning multi generational homes and encouraging older people to contribute to the economy.
Lived in Japan a year. The work culture is cruel but also i found the general quality of people's lives better. Many issues in other ways like every country but a general sense of bond between people
@@Toripusutashi cruel work culture where they work for 12 hours a day in a social straightjacket translates to better quality of life?
And the bond between people is shallow. Scratch the veneer of sanctioned pleasantries and you have a typically unchristian culture. I doubt you are even Christian given your ridiculous insight.
Japan is different. Japanese have different mentality, culture and values. They are doing find, better than 90% of the world. No housing crisis, clean , developed and preserved traditional culture outside of Tokyo. Japan is one of the best country I ever been.
China is doing well too. I was amazed with china development. No homeless people, super infrastructures , energetic people and surprisingly very efficient lifestyle.
In general, Asia is doing far better than US in terms of public infrastructures and safety. No riot, no gun violence, no school shooting, no rainbow flags, no drug problem.
@@bl5608Castles in the air. Problems coming this countries soon.
@@jabrazil416 every country has its own problems. Japan is doing far better than most countries.
Asian mindset is different. Western countries thinks work and personal life are separate. Asian countries thinks work and personal life are together.
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I’m an American and I gotta say: this is fascinating. In typical American fashion, and somewhat by design from our corporate overlords, I have not had such a deep dive into current events as they relate to economics….ever. This was accessible, informative, and eye opening.
Keep it going. This is the way.
Math&science,psychology too! ,no straight path to O TELLIGENCE!!LIKE Lobbying-What R U Selling?
"I don't want to have World War III, and I don't wanna be really poor." Statement of the century.
Facts
Does this sentence mean that the west is threatening the rest of the world with WW III should there be a re-calibration of economics that does not involve pillaging the rest of world's resources, or having some populations maintained in poverty in order to obtain the cheap labor that makes western living standard possible? Moreover is this a laughing matter? A topic for light conversation over drinks? Or something really serious that should be very carefully considered by western populations?
I am not a western citizen, and I am not intrinsically hostile to the west, however in order for the "rest of the world" to start seeing western countries with some sort of benevolence instead of outright hostility the west needs to come out of its bubble and accept that refusing the re-evaluation of almost everything that made the bubble possible is not a luxury they can afford anymore.
... and so say all of us, so why are the clowns still in charge ? where is our agreement for many of their decisions as it cannot be said to be in that stupid, means nothing vote.
@@econrith unfortunately, as Varoufakis says, when people are angry, they tend to shut off their mind and follow the fascists.
@@d_rooster Even if they were angry, couldn't they use their brains? They were supposed to be highly educated and advanced!
Everything in America is done through lobbying. Everything is done through lobbying in America. Everything.
What the People need are several lobbyists with great funding, don't you think?
Unfortunately, that's how the mob operates, they force businesses to pay for protection and there for protected.
The more you pay, the more protection you get, pay enough you can invade countries for resources.
It's all a racket.
And the corresponding campaign contributions. It's an open pay-to-play system, and we wonder why it's broken. Lawrence Lessig wrote a great book about it a decade ago. Should be required reading to vote.
Also known as legalised corruption.
I guess the Houthis are lobbying, in their own particular way.
When your guest spends so much time talking about China and yet finds it necessary to tell us he wouldn't visit China, and doesn't know what Peking is, reflects the hypocrisy of Western neocons..
.
Its western racism and disrespect for Russia and China that these commentators reveal
Not only this, I also find many of this guy's arguments are in fact contradictory . His trick and his unusual ability however, are to quickly jump from one topic to an entirely new topic, then another, then perhaps another...all in a single breath of air, before you've firmly identified and believed these topics are contradictory. He speaks a lot with few essence when you think about it. It's kind like listening to a CNN-trained political economy talking head.
It is called BEIJING. PEKING is a term prior to 1991, when world was bipolar. So I think he was being cheeky.
He seems pretty impressed with China, studies, power of state, innovation, growth.... And says he wouldn't mind going but it's not top of his list (summarising)
It's an interesting conversation. I was surprised to hear Pilkington say he's never visited China. If you are talking big global economic and political issues, how could you not?
That is what all the lobbyists, thinktanks and consultants do, talking out their ass while sounding super confident. They assumed they know stuff through second and third hand info like books and WSJ articles. All the appearances, none of the substance. It is boring because there is no new perspective.
Need to be free from prejudice. 启蒙.
Cyrus Jansen.
Because of ideology and brainwashing which creates conflict in the mind of many westerners. Many don't even know China but this guest knew China's economy relatively well but he is trapped in his ideological hole created by mental conditioning since childhood.
And Ben Norton!!
Imagine nowadays Western writers dream up about China and any unfriendly countries without ever visiting the country and write “books” about them? What kind of academic junkies are they?
They are propagandists not journalists or academics.
Armchair warriors.
I go there. I went to Kabul for 5 months, Israel 9 times and Ukraine recently. Lviv is really nice.
And you?
Life is important so what is coming out is correct whose fault is this
I find Philip's contextualization of the possible rationale and role of Ethiopia with Brics interesting. He actually still frames his 'progressive' views within the bounds of the problematic world order he describes. Almost believing it's ethos but not agreeing with some of its practises. At it's core Brics is not trying to counter the West or NATO, or even provide an alternative. Don't buy into western propaganda. Brics is trying to solve for and provide for the Global South's own vision and aspirations. The metrics and value of Ethiopia's contribution to the grouping is therefore not just by virtue of its current economic size. So yes location, population size, readiness to actively participate and contribute are just as valid. Ethiopia has shown it is able to harness its limited resources and deliver in a substantial way in a realitively short period of time, e.g. Ethiopian Airlines, The Grand Renaissance Dam.
Never trust a leftist on economics. He cites Keynes ffs.
That *is* an alternative tho. On the security side, it’s a NATO alternative/counter. On the financial side, it’s a counter to the IMF.
And this is why people are so confused, they can’t tell the difference between intelligent bullshit and facts. You don’t even have to be super knowledgeable to understand that a lot of this is bullshit. Small example: graphics processors are the most advanced processors we have that are available to consumers, if he doesn’t know that then he doesn’t know what he’s talking about and should refrain from talking about it. Being around people that know things doesn’t make you knowledgeable in those things, I’ve been around plenty of welding, doesn’t make me a welder, I couldn’t even tell you how to set the dials. I on the other hand, make semiconductors (in the US), and he really shouldn’t talk about semi-conductors. The reason the chips act sucks is because of where the money actually went.
They should talk about it, then we know they are full of shit.
I think both of you guys should take a trip to China. Go to a city, travel around on the public transport, eat the local food, chat with some locals. I think it would really open your eyes.
In what way
What point are you trying to make?
@@user-lb8bg6kj9m To inform them of their thoughts on China. I recently rode the subway across Shenzhen, a megapolis, for the equivalent of 60 cents US. Do they know how China facilitates the life of its ordinary citizens? Certainly much, much more than other countries of similar per capita GDP - for example Mexico.
They look good on the outside, but they're a crumbling economy.
@@Timbothruster-fh3cw that's exactly what I've been hearing about every economy for my entire life. Wanna give any sound arguments for your position, instead of just issuing vague, blanket statements?
As a Nigerian, we wouldn't consider an economic collapse, because the country was just as bad, no difference. But Americans, if you're considering this, then I'm sorry it must happen. I'm still broke, but I'm prepared for this. Wake up and know the patterns of your country, it's not my job. But your internet shows a lot of economic fears.
As a Black American I have my weapons and will defend myself.
31:00 - the impact of the Red Sea blockade is not just the diminishing of shipping capacity & increased transportation expenses, but also a massive increase in inventory holding costs - which is the far bigger cost compared to shipping. Businesses now have to hold 40% more stuff in their warehouses just so they don't run out of inventory. That's a lot of cash tied up in inventory instead of being invested in other areas that ultimately drives business expansion, be it R&D, new venture incubation, etc.
Since 2020 and that year's event, a lot of older ships have been sent to the bone yard. That hasn't helped either.
Well, inventory holding costs have been cut for years in pursuit of efficiency and just in time shipping, so a slight correction there is probably a good idea, since everyone now should be aware of the downsides of such efficiency.
If only that money would have gone into R&D or something Else positive instead of stock buybacks and upper leadership compensation, we would generally be in a better position.
Very interesting point.
But if disruption is longterm it will also effect China's trade.
@@colincampbell4261 Quite the reverse. If the disruption is long term, it'll incentivize all parties to invest in & use alternative trade routes, the cheapest & fastest of which is the China-Europe Railway from Chongqing to Duisburg, which is faster than the Suez Canal. China has been trying to diversify away from maritime trade for a while now, just to reduce US leverage. A long term disruption of the Suez will inevitably drive everyone to start diversifying. In the short term it'll be disruptive to everyone, but in the mid/long term the PRC will benefit immensely.
@1:04:00 - according to the latest CWTS Leiden Ranking (top 5% papers), MIT is at 9 for "physical sciences and engineering" and 13 for "mathematics and computer science". Except for Nanyang Technology University (Singapore) , all universities/institutes ranked higher than MIT are in mainland China.
And yet, the whole AI revolution is happening in San Francisco. China wouldn’t be fudging the numbers, would it? 😅
@kierkegaardrulez All advancements made in CA are by graduates of Chinese universities. No need for indust. espionage, they just observe until something commercial pops up, then move home to develop it. 😅😅
What an excellent wide-ranging RELEVANT discussion. Thank you!❤
Yes I agree, magnificent
Alan Bastani is a great interviewer
Great talk
11:40 geopolitics people don't understand economics18:40 allies destroyed Germany through war indemnity after WWI 22:30 Houthis changed world naval blockade 38:15 May June inflation to go up 42:15 China 46:15 chips. Nothing can be done without lobbying 52:15 freedom in China 59:45 Chinese economy, govt controls investments and housing prices 1:07:45 Weapons technology, West far behind China and Russia 1:16:00 South America 1:28:10 books: Michael Hudson, Adam Smith goes to Beijing
"Freedom" in China I'd rather say!
I love your chronology I tend to fo the same so that I remember when I'm sharing on Facebook (gossip book) and recall what to highlight and translate to Spanish!
"The Houthis's changed naval blockades" Am l missing something? But Surely 'Elon Musk' can circumnavigate the shipping container blockade and resume production of his much sought-after Telsa cars. By cannibalising his 100,000 cars sitting unwanted and unsold in storage lots & car showrooms for spare parts
"People don't understand economics".... Wake me up when you realize that your precious voodoo economic principals are scientifically invalid.
Well... some of these headings are utter BS.... they pick on main factual sidebite of concern and build a lot of nonsense around it. Sad. Some people just like to keep on talking.....
Honestly, I wasn't surprised by this turn of events. Writings were on the wall with big bold letters:
1) unique geography of the region bottlenecking much of world-wide maritime traffic into a tiny corner;
2) tons of drones and missiles regularly shipped to Houthis from Iran;
3) events of Russia-Ukraine war.
I'll elaborate on the latter. Due to relatively small theatre of Black Sea, role of anti-ship missiles in blockading was greater than the ships themselves. First, Ukraine rendered large-scale fleet maneuvers limited for Russia when she sunk Black Sea Fleet flagship "Moscow". Yet Russia remained fully capable of blockading Ukrainian ports through missiles alone (not counting limited flee maneuvers and aviation here - they play their role, but really, missiles would have been enough).
It wasn't hard to conclude that in current age you may not need fleet to fight fleet or to blockade someone. And given points 1) and 2), its really no surprise that Houthis pulled blockade on half the world, despite their navy being limited to a couple of motorboats.
Simply put: they are in the right place at the right time and with just the right equipment.
Giving doesn’t diminish wealth it only increases it. Great vlog guys
Ah! I’d put that differently, Philip said “you can’t have a welfare state with an ageing population. I’d say, ‘you can’t have fertility without a welfare state’.
I don’t think it’s chicken or egg either.
I think what’s happened is we come to expect a decent future but with all the variables like Housing, NHS, Climate, Environment, cost of living, younger people are poorer, more anxious, logically less optimistic, they’re seeing quality of life falling, prospects dashed. Quality of life is core to fertility in the 21st century for the next 2 decades at a guess. The domino’s have obviously fallen.
There are welfare states. How's their fertility doing?
For as much as Pilkington talks of "economists having a general better grasp of geopolitics", he doesn't seem to be that elucidated in his views, and quite disingenuous at times. I mean, the whole bit on Egypt and Ethiopia joining BRICS is so tortuous. I see a lot of Western political commentators interpret the pact as an "alliance" or "China's NATO", when the truth is that it is nothing of the sort. The BRICS are not a beligerent coalition, they are only portrayed as such because the main goal behind it is to seek alternatives to the Global North for economic development. So no, there is no "pattern" in Egypt and Ethiopia joining, at least not the reactionary one you're thinking of. Sure, these nations might not blindly follow the US's directories once they join, but that is in the cause of national liberation and sovereignty.
Totally agree. Understands traditional economics, but little else. Really not learned anything new here just selfconscious blah blah blah.
BRICS have one sole purpose : Abandon Dollar supremacy as global reserve.
All other purposes and objectives are only facade.
In that sense, any country can join the group.
Once we get to that stage, USA can keep printing their Dollar out of thin air with no consequence for the rest of the world.
And the colonialist model USA impose to 3rd world countries (sucking commodities and paying back with sh*t green paper) can finally be demolished.
....Psst. US/UK governments don't want you to know this.
All economists would benefit greatly including sociological ao. aspects in their models and conclusions. ...So would other "experts".
@mike_lowndes, at least it's addressing the problems, right? That's better than what Jimmy Dore or Breaking Points are doing. After all, how much can one person really accomplish? Perhaps we actually need AI's assistance. At least people are realizing there's a problem.
I work in theoretical physics and there is a lot of good work coming out of China.Moreover, a rather well known physicist in my field from France has a position in China so there does seem to be a academic migration in the other direction appearing. Indian universities are also underrated.
True. Nature magazine tracks an index of National rankings in 70 top STEM magazines. China is in the top tier of not number one. Check it out.
Ok but what happens if we shut off our University's to the Chinese? Of course this would never happen, seeing as how much $ they get from China at this point which I don't think many in the US agree with. By that I mean we don't agree with how much pull China potentially has with our best Unis.
I don't think this is. a good idea, if only because this would reduce the rate at which knowledge develops, though also because in this exchange of information european universities will/can get as much as they give.@@ahuels67
@@ahuels67 this is literally America's favourite capitalism working at 100%. They asked for a price for education, and the Chines paid to get it. You don't agree with it, then what are you gonna do about it? Start a petition to demand American colleges and institutes to stop all foreign students from admission?
@@ahuels67 idk, it's a much deeper trench than that. '08 they saved our asses - a hidden debt is owed despite the media/politicians angle
Good summing up. Some of us know this but it good to see it packaged together in easy digestible chunks
Housing inflation is very high, Food Inflation is high, housing taxes and insurance is very high, Car insurance is high, Medical costs are extremely high ,etc! What low inflation?
you have been con inflation is measure of price increase from last year
last year's prices are here too stay unless prices drop significantly
what a great channel you have developed here. Congratulations NM, great work
Would love to know what Philips definition of "Freedom" is in this context. Because freedom to exploit and extort people shouldn't be apart of the agenda.
Be interesting to hear his thoughts on the chocolate industry in particular where exploitation is rife.
Freedom without respect for the freedom of others is just Selfishism.👍
Land of freedom. That happen to imported slaves as "unfreedom" people
@@sunnyking8881having the majority of their ignorant public subjugated by the lies of their corrupt leaders fake news propaganda is anything but free
@@jonpaul3868the self proclaimed land of freedom is built upon the backs of the most oppressed and unfree
That was great. And Michael Hudson is also great.
I think we need a development coordination system, but the charter of such a thing to be aware of what Michael Hudson is teaching and subscribe to the developed human mind as the ultimate source of wealth, as opposed to wealth as privilege by virtue of ownership. The entrenched interests that would fight real development coordination efforts, are the very ones historically reluctant to let others surpass them.
I think the world is run by the Military Industrial Complex, not Washington DC. The MIC is not limited to the US. They all are oligarchs.
If by M I C you mean a few oligarchs I agree. A very US senior politician retired just a couple of years ago and said when I shaved every morning I used to look in the mirror and ask myself what are ten things I can do for my donors today.
What else do you need to know!?…
I think you just tone it down for the US so they wouldn't look so guilty...
the major and biggest military industrial complex is in the US and the US is the leader of a warmonger gangs out there
its still US dominated. no other country uses private industry contractors as much as the us
@@NeostormXLMAX I am not an expert, but at this point, I agree. My guess is that every country contracts with specialists in a particular area to get things done. It’s more economically efficient that way. Since the MIC in the US has concentrated on the military industry for so long, they naturally have the expertise. I don’t think for a second that they are loyal to the US. They are loyal to their stakeholders, and those stakeholders are global.
Corporatism.
Great interview Aaron. Thank you so much for the amazing work you're doing Novara❤
Americans need to understand the multi-polar world we live in & the fact that America no longer has the power it had after WWII. This is a great history & economic review of the implications of our actions.
You mean making China a rising power right?
Don't wake sleeping lions. The US has the potential to reclaim its absolute dominance in short order all that would take is the right leadership and will to do so.
@@ricardosmythe2548I think you are wrong
@@abdulmalikbadamasi3069 You only have to look at what the US produced in ww2 with a fraction of its current population and technological ability to see what it is capable of. She entered the war and dwarfed the production capacity of every other major power within 2 years from a starting position of the smallest producer.
Concerning the "Population Problem", I would suggest that we have the technology to ensure that the current imbalance of the so-called "Aging Population is well-managed. I believe we need to invest in a knowledge-based society rather than a consumer-driven one.
This. The “population problem” is only a problem because of our economic structures. It doesn’t need to be a problem at all.
Indeeed.
It's embarrassing to hear two alledged marxist/Keynsians agree that the solution to a resource shortage is to lessen the resources and increase consumoption so that "there will be more to go round".
Denying the collapse of ALL the systems we depend on for life - never mind a civillisation - and calling for a quicker wrecking of thiose systems, is not sound economics.
It's positively Trumpian.
@@StephaniePasq-hg7vt Precisely. Worker productivity has skyrocketed and that's before advanced robotics which actually can finally shorten the work week, with no loss in productivity over demographics. And with better healthcare - not healthcare for profit - seniors can work longer, especially helping teach and care for the young.
If you want people to have more babies, make housing affordable. The greed of others has consequences.
that topic is much more complex, countries that have better benefits than US are also experiencing a decline in birthrate, meaning that the reasons go beyond affordable housing.
If houses and life in general where a bit cheaper, not so many women would choose to work either, many would gladly give up work if they had a better quality of life. Not sacrificing foreign vacations etc.
People forget the ruling class want to decrease the population as we're all being rendered redundant and therefore a threat with AI creating mass unemployment. Making life unaffordable is their way of reducing the population.
“Make it affordable” how? Force people to build houses for free? Slavery been illegal for centuries.
I don't believe that financial incentives for people to have more children have been very successful so far.
Well done, Novara. Best interview on the subject I've seen, and arguably the most important. Without having even so much as a sliver of the expertise in global political and economic affairs that's on display here, I've also instinctively felt that this is what the world is shifting towards - and alarmingly rapidly. Great work, everyone.
The way you dissect the world now, is fascinating!! How far from the misinformation media we are used to. Thank you very much for this master class
Great Video Gents, really enjoyed it.
The US sets an inflation target of 2% for the follwoing reason:
1. Historical Gold Inflation: When the world was on the gold standard, miners could not add more than 2% new gold to the existing market in the history of gold mining.
2. Because your limitted to add new gold, you were limited in the amount of money which can be printed.
Since going off the gold standard, whole sale changes have been made to definitions within economics:
1. Inflation was based on Money Supply, now it is CPI (Consumer Price Inflation), that is like saying everything is good because the CPI says everything is fine but the reality is nobody other than central planners know what is going into the basket of the CPI. India included the price of a VHS system which decreased in Price by 50%...
2. Recession was based on 2 consecutive negative quarters, now its something else completely.
This all goes down to the fact that there is a last gasp power grab by the central planners of unipolar world, they have lost and are clinging to straws. The same happened to the Romans, when the reminted gold coins using less gold...
Excellent interview. Thanks a lot.
ps: maybe you could have Michael Hudson on the show one day.
I’d love to see Michael Hudson as a guest as well. They both provide good food for thought for open minds. 🇨🇦
And steeve keen
and Mark Blyth
And Ben Norton.
Peter Zeihan
I prefer ALL VIEWS TO ASSESS LONG-TERM FINALE as things ebolve by OUTCOMES which are Never Final NOR 4-EVER! NOR 4-EVRYONE! There is Always room for changing ideas!
It would be so much nicer if every country could do their thing and don't compete ideologically. That way we, as humanity, could experiment with different ways of doing things and be able to compare and move around depending on what we like. If politicians and "influencers" could just shut up about what they believe to be true thus disregarding everybody else's experiences, and instead ask the interesting questions, we would all be enlightenend instead of coerced and denigrated.
Just to cheer everybody up. I'm 64.
The Government lied to us all the way up to a 15% mortgage rate.
Back in thr Good Old Days.
But, it was affordable.
Not fun. But affordable.
The fact of the matter is that the West is rapidly losing its grip on the imperialistic economic model it set forth since '71, which was itself an attempt to maintain the previous standard of Western hegemony. People talk of 'late stage capitalism', which has its own truth and merit, but I really see it more as the ever straining straw of the West's power structure over the world. With this, as with any empire at its dusk, the United States of America and other political entities that it vouches for will get more agressive and desperate. Living conditions will worsen rapidly and even those at the imperial core will feel it. Western rethoric will continue to push the blame onto China (and to be completely fair, it is obvious that other powers will seek its own opportunities in this scenario), slowly building up its casus beli for total reactionary strikes. The 21st century is still in its early stages, but when one remembers that it was oficially commenced with the 9/11 attacks, one can't overstate the level of upheaval that awaits us.
Interesting take...
I'm seeing it more as NeoFeudalism. ...that ship you're calling capitalism sailed about 16 years ago... (it's old enough to drink now)
....Psst. US/UK governments don't want you to know this.
Correct. Nixon cutting ties between $ and gold implementing the FIAT monetary system 1971 (Vietnam war) was paramount maintaining Western hegemony, but also a decisive factor leading to rampant inequality, corporate take-over and imperial demise.
It's not a fault of capitalism. It's a fault of culture. What is the dominant culture? It's leftims/liberalism. You guys. YOU destroyed the West and it's people. It's your fault.
Love the Multipolarity Podcast and the Hudson "Super Imperialism" shout out is brilliant. There's a recent 3rd edition, by the way ...
Great conversation! Very nuanced with plenty of admissions about the uncertainty.
Thoroughly enjoyed this guys, I learnt a lot.
Fantastically interesting guest and interview.
Have to agree on the Michael Hudson book recommendation. You'll also find many very recent interviews with Michael Hudson on You tube.
Congratulations to NM for its selection of interesting guests.
By the way, I worked and lived in China for a few years. I'd have no problem living there again. Ex Brit living in Sweden.
Thanks
Any economist still using GDP has already missed the boat. PPP would show China already surpassed the USA.
Anyone listening to economists is insane. The entire field is morally bankrupt and bad at math. Seriously, they don't even get the most basic behaviour of iterative exponential feedback loops as those found in the wage - inflation feedback loop. (FYI it is a self-shrinking pattern, so it is not a real problem, it solves itself.) Stop listening to economists.
Ppl will understand once the shoe is on the other foot once the world finishes dedollarizing about 2030
what's PPP?
@@TheInternetFanpurchasing power parity
GDP is also kinda calculated in a way that is pretty shifty
I think saying that Houthis had implemented a naval blockade is a gross misunderstanding of terminology. We can see that Suez canal operates normally, and Houthis are just conducting acts of piracy and sabotage, which happens occasionally and appears to be inconsistent in organisation. Piracy had always been common and annoying and in this context is no different, except that it is politically motivated, but to call that a naval blockade is just wrong.
It is a naval blockade when Yemen officially backs it.
Yemen is a regional strategy by UAE & US through US mercenaries. We always go after the poorest folks closest to our adversaries to turn them strategically.
Aaron's interviews always offer the most educational and constructive dialogues. Thank you. Btw, a very insightful guest.
Did he really say that if your able bodied, up
until 76 years of age, that maybe you can spend the next 5 years helping people? Most 70 year olds I know have worked really hard, are probably already helping children and grandchildren as it is. Now you want them
to go into their 80s still helping out. Holy crap.
yea he has some fucked up positions.
Having worked in Geriatrics - yes - that's true.
The point that ALL generations whoudl be working together is a better suggestion,... and works.
These two clerver men have entirely ignored that
a) the more people on the planet, the more starve as the ecology collapses beneath too many humans
b) Peopel LIKE working to help each other and with their own community. It's the Human Thing. THe notion that human beings are ;uimnaffordable' because we must work in an economic system that produces things which people don't actually want rather than in communitiers they find Worth and Value in is obscene.
The rest of the discussion seemed - as ever - very rational ... but when they're teliong us that we must produce more people on a planet collapsing under the weight of people (and our systems), and that we must continue to INCREASE the mnumbers of an Ageing Population, rather than to make systems which allow people to help... is where I begin to think "Have these guys REALLY thought things through at a 'Basics' level?"
Their 'job' is reading things and sitting around chatting.
Thank you for sharing. Very insightful!
Great talk! And excellent suggestions for reading. You can't scud the Hud!
Maybe it’s time to come up with a better system - one that doesn’t exploit the whole planet and everyone on it, cause wars, spread injustice etc - not too much to ask is it?
Many people in western countries are already really (really) poor... Not all (in fact, not most) people live under the benficial influence of the City and the booming (at the expense of many other fields) financial markets... These people need good secure jobs back, not "low inflation"...
This is so absolutely fascinating, I’m watching for a second time
You had my attention all 90 mins. Interesting conversations. Thank you.
I am a Chinese. There is an old Chinese saying, "去其糟粕，取其精华Get rid of the dross and take the essence". From the history of the Soviet Union, we realize that complete socialism has failed, and we cannot blindly imitate it. However, the decline of the West has also made us realize that capitalism is not perfect, and it may have reached its limit. So our current model is socialism with Chinese characteristics, which is actually a combination of capitalism and socialism. We are exploring a new path
過往二千年，大部分時間中國都是科技，經濟大國。。。幸好西方學中國歷史的人非常少，他們的命運早注定。
@@foodparadise5792 除了那屈辱的一百来年，我们一直都是这个世界上最强的存在。引用下横渠四句，为天地立心，为生民立命，为往圣继绝学，为万世开太平。每个年代总有强人挽狂澜于既倒扶大厦之将倾
@@cy8cg2mj4w 是的。中國睡醒了。還是拿破侖那句吧，當你的敵人犯錯，千萬不要阻他。
good post! but i dont really think its socialism anymore. its just another concept of capitalism. mixed with the power of the regime to enforce any policies, even for 50 years. besides the thing you said i think the culture with generations more interwined and for each other made many things possible.
@@MartymcFly-zz2pg so techno feudalism isnt in the capitalism genre? or what are you trying to say?
The Dardenelles naval blockade by Turkey in 1915 pretty much achieved without a navy.
They did have sufficient forces for this. They had received a couple of warships from Germany to help.
@adrianwhyatt1425 it was a land-based campaign.
Nope. That was an attempted invasion of Ottoman territory by the Allies.
Just wondering. Did Nasser need a navy in 1956? You need a blue water navy to protect shipping routes. But you can block choke points without one.
@@pimdegroot9656 Ask the Houthis.
its not that they are blocking ships, its that insurance premiums have gone up enough that it doesnt make sense to ship through there anymore.
Insurance premiums are up as a result of potential ship-blocking activities via the Houthis.
? And those things are unrelated because? 😂
OP: "that apple's not green, it's blue and yellow mixed together!"
@@beantreatsthere’s a huge difference if it comes to hot war between Iran and US.
@@alst4817 exactly. And if a hot war breaks out, do you think the US will blame the insurance companies for causing the disruption to global shipping? Clearly the Houthi drones are responsible. Do you see how OP is being misleadingly pedantic? The video already talks about how it isn't a naval blockade in the conventional sense we are accustomed to, so you two are really adding nothing to the conversation.
my point is that; it is not the weaponry that is providing a current advantage to rebals. It is protection from destruction by politics and military risk management.
My hubby is from Xi'an. I love it there. It's got very friendly people, nice foos, great history like the Terracotta Army and I miss it a lot. See worth a visit. It can get very dusty for the sand from the Sahara and very hot in Summer, so highly suggest going in the Autumn
I've been to China. It's actually a really pretty place
Have you been to lijiang, Guilin and the ancient water villages near Suzhou, if not you have missed the most interesting places in China
For a tourist, China will be pretty. Ask the Uyghurs how they feel about reeducation camps.
@@pimdegroot9656 the Ugrhurs in Xinjiang are doing very well. Their population has increased steadily and enjoy a much higher living standards than their previous generations thanks to high quality education and investment in hi tech industries. All these progress achieved despite all the lies n criminal tactics used by the US to contain their progress n depress their economy. So put this in your pipe n crow
@@pimdegroot9656 *You* ask them. You might not get the answer you expect.
@@pimdegroot9656 why don't you travel there and ask them yourself instead of just regurgitating the crap your media feeds you. And at the same time try rubbing two brain cells together and wonder why is it your western governments do not like Chinese and they do not like Muslims but they seem to be very concerned about Muslims in China - all while they fund the war in Gaza against actual Muslims and children being killed. Meanwhile for all the years of their so called Uyghur genocide the west has not yet been able to produce ONE PICTURE or VIDEO of said genocide / concentration camp.
Long time follower, first time donor. It was about time, tbf. Cheers from Sweden, once a social dem welfare state, now a neoliberal nightmare. Glad Novara is out here fighting the good fight - it’s much needed!
When did Sweden have a socialistic economy?
Sweden was never a DemSoc state
It is a Social Democrat state
Thanks for a fascinating discussion... plenty of eye openers there!
A very interesting conversation.
- I would not live in China. - Have you been to China? - No, never. 😂😂😂😂😂
I wouldn't live in texas, florida, kentucky or china.
Yeah I've never been to prison yet I would not like to live there. Weirdly when you have a brain you can think of experiences you would and wouldn't like without having experienced them... you should get a brain you'd love it...even if you've never experienced such a thing!
I have. Not a particularly nice place once you start to scratch the surface
Stay away from global South…we will be absolutely fine without ur states intervention or west markets 👍🙂
@@PadraigpIf you had a brain, you’d make better analogies
The demographic problem is not a problem, it's a result of economic mismanagement. And the solution is economic management. People aren't having children because they can't afford children. In addition to that, our productive capacity has improved greatly. The problem is the way we are distributing resources, not the way the demographics are decreasing output.
If you gave it more than 2 seconds thought you’d realise what you just said is utter nonsense. People were far poorer in the past and had more children.
Sit down.
Most of this went over my head. So interinteresting.
Very insightful conversation 👍🏼
I don't think it would hurt the Western Nations to take China more seriously and stop playing games and get our own house in order again.
and stop selling off american land to China
100%
@@hamzab1368 No. No one is good besides God. The west should get it's house in order because it's in disorder and a mess.
It seems like the politicians think we are still in a monopole world, where the only thing important is winning against their US. They seem unaware of the competitive position of the US in the world, and how our society is being out maneuvered.
Our own house is more in order than anyone else. And we do take china seriously that’s why we have so much aircraft carriers in the pacific and building bases in Philippines and Taiwan and others
I loved this so much. Sobering, factual, such a good break from all the noise and propaganda out there. These are things we need to hear to navigate the complex challenges between China and the US.
Yes, and Corporate News makes sure not to discuss world events openly and honestly. They pretend their citizens 🙄 😒 are children. The Collective West is getting themselves jammed up. Forget the NYT, CNBC, NBC,the WSJ... They all dole out misinformation. 😂😅😮😢
Good refresher. Not much new for me, I sat on my chair to the end, hoping that would mention that the USA steppd on their dick by outsourcing their industrial base post WWII, but I guess everybody knows that, unless of course unless they have a gegree in history and economics, and have been doing post gradute work for 14 years of post graduate work. Well structured, give that A++ Heartfelt great from Norway.
@@Gabby-botrichest country in Europe in worst European climate
miracle of it's own or maybe a rationale
@@Gabby-bot I just watched a documentary on the history of Norway. You guys have done a lot of things right, and it seems it will pay off for everyone, well into the future.
So grateful for this interview.
Please date your posts! Your excellent interviews are time sensitive. You Tube should do it. but instead of a date they post a "days ago" note which they would have to update daily for their 2 billion posted YT's. This will add value to your otherwise excellent posts.
Some of us were alive under the bi-polar order. I was thirty in 1991, and am still breathing
true.
Me too….thanks to Gorbachev.
Very nice interview and much impressed with Philip. The one item he should have mentioned on Chinese debt is it's locally owned, denominated in yuan, and supported by 1x deposits. It means domestic debt alone wouldn't crash the Chinese economy, and since it has a relatively closed capital market, it's currency is insulated from USD fluctuations.
A country that prints its own money and has monetary sovereignty over its currency can never go bankrupt though it can still suffer inflation or hyperinflation. China is in that position of monetary and fiscal sovereignty now and it's something the rentiers of the West don't like.
Chinese markets have gone down $3trilliion in the past 3 years and more to come. So many SOEs are insolvent and a permanent drain on the economy. The CCP will ham fistedly destroy the middle class. This means not much of a high tech future
I disagree. Deflation can crash the high domestic debt economy. But yes china has extra tools over any democracies to manage the issues.
Brilliant dialogue! Certainly great starting point, and if continued might have great potential contributing towards the development of the new Universal Model ❤
Sounds like a very good assessment of what’s happening and where we’re going.
"I am in favour of industrial policy" is usually a polite way of saying "I am corrupt and for sale".
Some industrial policies succeed economically and some fail. But they all foster corruption.
Sorry to state the obvious.
Judges need to keep their distance from prosecution and defense councils. Referees need to keep their biases to themselves. And governments need to protect and advocate for consumers, not industry.
Ian Fletcher's 'Free Trade doesn't work' is a really great book, and worth reading
Fascinating. The key to understanding economics, especially macroeconomics is understanding the history of economic thought.
The reason so many economists talk "drivel" is because thinking like an economist is not a natural way for humans to think.
Some humans can learn the economic "models", but do not really understand them.
The other subject that is not a natural way for humans to think is statistics.
Similarly, some humans can ... but do not understand them.
Econometrics, the statistical analysis of economic data is poorly understood by most people, including a large percentage of so called economists.
I studied in an economics dept that had 30+ academic economics, 7-8 of whom I regarded as true economists.
I taught in a standalone Statistics dept, one of the few in the world, and I observed the same phenomenon.
Your guest appears to understand both.
Tanks för this intelligent Talk. Vers well complied
Great talk! Thanks! Question remains, why should Britons, Europeans and Americans forever earn more money than the Chinese? And yep, also I know a few places where I'd rather live then in China. The UK or Scandinavia are not among them. What's so great about "democracies" where the choices are Sunak/Starmer, Scholz/Laschet, Macron/Le Pen, Trump/Clinton/Biden, ...? BTW: since had a look at Pilkington's demography paper: a commendable contribution to a discussion that never has taken place.
Any customer can have a car painted any colour that he wants, so long as it is black.
US speaking, at least, there is a lot more than just the president for elections. We have our federal level senators, representatives, our state level, count/commonwealth, city, and municipal level elections as well. Even with the well oil political machines, politicians have to make regular concessions to the voters and at least pay lip service to them for motivation to do anything.
Plenty of improvements that can be made to the system, ranked choice, more representatives, more democratic influence on federal departments, more avenues for direct democracy, etc, but the democratic part of it is the better part for sure.
Agreed on more people's around the world getting a more fair share in value being created by their hard work, all the power to all the people!
According to Wallerstein's division of the world, it is divided into core countries (charging high-tech patent fees), semi peripheral countries (research and development and low-cost manufacturing), and peripheral countries (exporting cheap labor and energy). China is a semi peripheral country, and at least one-third of the products produced in China have to pay patent fees. But when China began researching products such as chips and cars, which challenged the interests of the United States as a core country, the United States began to impose sanctions and threats. That's why Western countries have always earned more money than Chinese people, but Chinese people also want to earn more money
Because it is never about democracy or not, it is about the white people, or shall we say Western European white people community. It doesn't matter if China runs by communists or democratic, as long as they danger the western hegemony, they are guilty. Same goes to India, the biggest democracy country the US says, if it is becoming the largest economy with powerful army tomorrow, sanctions would instantly come upon them as well.
Really, enjoying these longer style interviews, with interesting knowledgeable people
Hi, I couldn’t manage to find the link for the event @Earth. Could you please share it?
The current market/economy is unnecessarily tougher for boomers/senior citizens, I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.
Just buy and invest in Gold or other reliable stock , the government has failed us and we cant keep living like this.
I’m a contractor, and my job doesn’t permit me the time to properly analyze my holdings/evaluate stocks myself, so I’ve had a fiduciary actively restructuring my portfolio for the past 7 years now to match the present market condition and that’s how I’ve been able to stay afloat, knowing when to buy and sell…maybe you should do the same.
my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
Annette Marie Holt'' is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Excellent episode; he is very interesting and well informed in many areas. He's right about Fiona Hill; she is absolutely amazing!
I hope you have him back.
Thank you
You would think that someone who’s interested in understanding geopolitical economy would be keen to visit China. Pretty sure Michael Hudson’s been there a few times.
He is correct that the US no longer sets the rules for the world (when we did it was by saying "if you want to live like us you must follow our rules which benefit everybody especially us"). We no longer do. That is because Biden's manipulators decided we would quit. Now instead of everybody benefiting everybody suffers.
He sounded proud of the fact he's never been to China and has no plans doing so, as if he holds unarticulated contempt/disgust towards this unignorable "Other." The Western centric hubris of someone who's never been to China and never wants to so confidently analyzing China and therefore "knowing" China - that kind of mentality is well captured in Edward Said's Orientalism.
yea this stood out to me pretty hard too lol. he really seems to have that ego he described among economists
Love these kinds of conversations.
Such good talk on this channel. a serious place to hear ideas. Without all the wanking of some other channels.
My go to channel for news from the UK. Appreciate you guys, always interesting.
This one and The Lotus Eaters, and Triggernometry. For a good mix of opinions.
We need more genuin analysis like this that are not driven by ideology👍
You didn't sense there was any ideology there? Is he for Biden or Trump?
nah these guys are just smart enough to put ideology aside but doesn’t mean they don’t see China and its culture through ideological lens
@@karenhsu3610 Some folks (whether they are smart or dumb) believe they are too smart to fall for a scam or question where their beliefs came from. 60% of people are in this group - kind of the Sigma male type.
They need to watch MSM to be better informed of US propaganda. Without that background, they will likely misconstrue the insanity emerging out of the USA.😢
@@jimjarvis2309what's the scam? Super curious!
Is this meant to be a left wing channel? As a South American, hearing this guy praise the IMF with absolutely no pushback from Aaron Bastani… 🤮
Definitely want to hear more from Philip Pilkington...Great interview -
Great interview thank you NM
Very well done. Great talk, thank you very much vor bringing it on.
Thank you for your encouragement to Sigma Empaths. Your analyses are greatly appreciated.
How does the return to a gold standard factor into your equations? 33:03
The paradigm of a decreasing population is one that is happening and will have to be delt with, not just telling people to have more kids. The growth paradigm has to be replaced with the sustainability paradigm.
@@LS-xs7sg then I guess they would have to come to grips with their problem
❤
@@LS-xs7sg Genetics can explain some things, but not all.
Around 13:18
Aaron asks if Phillip is surprised by how little politicians know about this stuff in the context of macroeconomics.
I think this is the incorrect way to view the context of our political system. Politicians are like the corporate brass, generals, lieutenants, etc.
The role of a politician is to enact corporate policy.
So then the question becomes, why would corporations want to sanction Russia?
The corporations responsible for militarism would love this.
Anyway, I don't think it's the job of a politician to think. They get lobbied and enact the policy. Or, there's a more sophisticated form of politician control, such as guaranteed high-paying jobs, stock tips, gifts, etc.
The point is, if you're a successful politician, you're a corporatist first.
Well said
Why are you taking this interview seriously?
Wake up!
Maybe it's a British thing, but you guys have a very digestible, even soothing canter, or pacing to your conversation. It may just be your chemistry too, but I found the conversation surprisingly easy to follow along mentally.
It’s because of Craig David as he insisted : Can you fill me?
One is a brit and the other is irish
Only one British person in this video - the interviewer. Pilkington is an Irish citizen from Republic of Ireland.
Okay my apologies, but Im not aware of any good proper plural noun for "U.K.-ites -ies -ers"
How do you refer to a group of one each of people from that general area, while still being specific enough to the general accent?
Like in America we have "Midwesterners" with an accent, from places like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, etc. But we call it Midwestern, collectively. Same with "Southern," West Coast, even "New England" or "Yankee" does a good enough job for the Northeast area despite people separating then into even smaller categories like Brooklyn, Queens, etc...
Sorry I went down a bit of a rabbit hole, but Im genuinely curious now.
@@CmdrCorn Irish and British but we are NOT a group of people. Ireland is a distinct and separate political and cultural nation state. We are members of the European Union, we have our own government, and we use the euro as our currency. We are a different country. Thanks for you interest and your questions :)
Good discussion. Informative. Mind pivoting thought - Houthi's enacting a naval blockade a) without a navy b) by using cheap technology because c) high tech products have become commoditized. 😮 Thank you both for this edifying discussion.