Epidemic, Endemic, and Eradication Simulations
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ต.ค. 2024
- Thanks to Dr Rohin Francis of Medlife Crisis and Dr Rishi Desai of Osmosis for their feedback.
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Interactive COVID-19 simulations from Nicky Case and epidemiologist Marcel Salathé:
ncase.me/covid-19
More on logistic growth
3Blue1Brown, also regarding disease spread: • Exponential growth and...
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Made with Unity
Thanks to Same Van Cise and Sebastian Lague for helping me learn Unity. You can find some of their work here:
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Music by Mathieu Keith. For business inquiries: mathieu.keith@gmail.com
Several other inputs into the graphics are from public domain contributions to blendswap.com
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They are evolving at a fast pace.
Now they are civilised and have a city.
WE NEED TO STOP THEM BEFORE ITS TOO LATE-
1000 years from now
Blob A: We just got confirmation that another human ruin has been found!
Blob B: Yes! finally our third finding, this is gonna be big folks!
Blob C: yeah, but you know maybe our ancestors shouldn't have wiped them all out.
Blob B: I agree, but they were sorta asking for it.
Its over, they are conquering the world now. The human era has ended it is time for _blobs_ .
Blob
Later when blobs discover earth: wait.. there is another powerful civilization in the same age as us....
When is the dyson sphere?
disease: extremely deadly and turns people red
blob: entirely red and obviously infectious
other blob: i see absolutely nothing wrong with interacting with this individual
Maybe the blobs can't see color?
Lmao
Blobs don't see red
unsuspecting susceptibility
"extremely deadly"
Where did you get that idea from? Not a single blob died because of this disease.
Primer: Mathematically breaks down how pandemics work.
Everyone: ThE BlObS hAve A cITy NoW!!!
It's true tho
We need to remember this is the SIR model where people are immune after catching the disease, SIS model where you become susceptible again after recovering would work better for Covid-19 as there is no proof that herd immunity occurs
Blobs are cool
@@amelie3012 also, what about the deaths? So the model might be SIRD or SISD.
@@derorje2035 true, we only covered SIR and SIS in my stochastic processes lectures but I thought about deaths after I posted the comment 😅😅
This makes me curious how the data would shift if you factored in deaths
deaths fall in the Removed category, most corpses don't significantly spread diseases.
would help actually. in covid theory must say. less ppl to get infected since babies wont get infected
@@iQKyyR3K *Evolves Necrosis*
Thixtee-nyne liekes???
@@308negrarroyolane **SMACK** Noice
The blobs are getting smarter. They’ve already established economics and entire cities.
Last time I was here they were killing each other for food
Lok
Lol
Maybe they didn't establish the cities. Maybe they just show up at night, loot them, and hide in the basements during the day... Just a theory.
And they do some medecine
Everybody gangsta until one of your homies turn red
Oh no.....
Sus
@@BisexualPlagueDoctor when impostor sus
@@leowood5860 *imposter
@@powerguidao6249 both are correct,but impostor is the correct term
@@thebacontourist7084 both of them are correct, but impostor is the correct term
Is it just me or would anyone else want a blob plush, blobs seem like they would be really comfy
EDIT: HE'S DONE IT POG
I want a blob bean bag
marketable plushies
All fun and game until they eat you to survive the day and multiply
"nooo dont turn me into a marketable plush"
@@polinori3582 Only if the the plush is 20% bigger then you. With would be amazing
Can We take a second to appreciate how hard this man must've listened in his maths lessons
Edit: Wow this is the most likes I ever had on a comment
I recall learning info like this, I just don’t recall the info
your t tfz
Ye
@@m_artroom I must be you.
I learned about R-naught in my high school anatomy class
'Sorry, you can't donate in this country or region yet.'
Looks like I'm literally not in a place to give.
haha awsome :p where may that be ?
@@henkpipo4233 Iran
Same can’t donate either
UAE
Bahrain
the blobs have a city now :O cute
Yeah they’re becoming more civilized
@@silversunset and they turned into red
...They are becoming too advanced soon they too will be able to run simulations! THE SINGULARITY IS COMING!! In the form of blobs...weird
I guess the mango guy made some extra cash
Blue York, blobbington DC, Boston (just regular boston bit they live there)
Imagine how scary it'd be if you heard an epidemic was going around and you suddenly turning red.
Imagine how scary it be if you heard another epidemic was going around that gives you a heat a sore throat and a cough when you started coughing and sweating
When you just vibin as a blob but you turning into a tomato
Shit
People who played plague inc :
the epidemic would be the least of my worries if I turned red
Imagine how scary it’d be if you heard an epidemic was going around and you had a chance to turn up dead. Oh wait...
Wow, what a fun simulation. This could definitely never happen in real life.
Haha, hahaha... Ha.
... Wft it's called an extremely infectious respiratory virus known as COVID 19
@@kaidenbush4995 And this comment is called 'A joke'
What's happening now with anti-mask/anti-vax is what we call natural selection. They will hopefully die out soon before they can infect those with common sense c:
**laugh track**
I'm still waiting for the prisoner dilemma video. Huge zero escape fan and the second game of the series deals with that a lot
It's coming!
And I'll be here. Ready to receive it anytime. I don't wanna sound like I'm rushing you. Quality content takes time UwU
Primer yes!
Why so long premiere? The most effective way to do it is like 1 or 2 hours
I like zero escape too
This is fascinating. Honestly, I don't actually understand a lot of the math terms, but being able to see what's happening on the graphs and having the colour coding it great. Thank you!!
I think that is part of why this is so satisfying to watch, dont understand the math but can still see that it works :)
Agree!
It really helped me understand why covid seems to be coming in what are referred to as waves
Now imagine don't be a english speaker, and undertand my pain
Me: *laughs in 14yo nerd*
so theres an epidemic thats turning all the doves into hawks, oh dear.
Nice the selfish gene
But what do they change to when they turn gray?
@@docnathan3959 or green?
The selfisch gene has already been debunked
Not doves to hawks, citizens to Karen's XD
It is really cool coming back to this toward the end of the pandemic because right now we are at 35% vaccination, and our graphs look just like that one!
At least we aren't turning red lol
@@aguywhodoesstuff4686 it is so sad to be brazilian and not be going toward the end of the pandemic
Well, guess we'll be welcoming omicron.
You just had to jinx it…
@Neil Rusling I hate it, why did this have to be political. Now we have idiots saying that the vaccine is the real thing getting people sick.
I always forget to watch videos, that were announced in advance, because they are already way past the current videos in my subscription box.
Same here. I just add them to my "to watch later" watchlist :)
Blob
@@atukiaos8786 I have 300 vids in my watch later
Chris Bandali I cleared my watch later list a few months ago, took stupid long I had around 400 😭😭😭
@@oqvH damn
Everybody gangsta till your homie turns red.
But you're a green blob and he turns gray
@@arsava5493 green? their blue
@@ElFoxo122 green in this video are the ones who are vaccinated. Watch the video until the end
When you realize you ask him to eat that McDonald’s fries on the road
@@ElFoxo122 also, "they are" = they're. "their" is possessive (like "their color is blue")
At the risk of sounding morbid, I think adding in death would make it more visible as to why reaching herd immunity naturally is not as good as it may sound.
Imo, trying to reach Herd Immunity without artificial vaccine is almost like a natural selection.
And lots of things you’re not immune to just because you got it once
Whenever I see people saying we should just let people get infected so we'll have herd immunity I'm reminded of the "Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make" meme.
I think in SIR models, the r (instead of "recovered" as this video put it) is really representative of any population "removed" from the equation whether that be from immunity or death.
i think you also need to think about random mutations which also make herd imunity harder to get to
It would be cool to see a simulation about if the blobs show symptoms and if they’ll quarantine based on if they have symptoms.
Quarantining lowers R, the infection rate, so I think we did see that simulation!
In World of Warcraft, there was once a disease called the "corrupted blood plague". It spread throughout WoW and after it was all over, the WHO took data of player infections because of how similar it was to real life.
I remember this. Priests tried to quarantine cities, healing players and blocking people from leaving or something? And then some players would sneak through and run around infecting others on purpose. Real accurate to real life. Cool stuff.
God I really hate people sometimes
I don’t think this accounted in chance of death
Mosa Jahad
It did. Game Theory did an episode on it, it's very interesting.
Pasha GamingYT yep, was about to say tgat
“Covid-19”
TH-cam: *angry yellow dollar sign noises*
PasJong Moua, he probably got permission to. Like emkay... So if he did get permission he can say that...
Ironically youtubers gave warnings in January and we dident listen intill it was to late
Eathan McNeely and fakejake and everyone else
They calmed down about it.
r/wooosh?
I love how these blobs are going through evolution, they started as gatherers and now they a city :)
Yea
BTRXflix I was gonna say that
And yet they are still naked.
@José Labán they don’t have a reason for it in their simulation world
José Labán xD
i thought eradication was gonna be the eradication of us not the disease xD
Same, lol-
i guess that can technically include human eradication, due to nobody being able to be infected due to not living
No living for you.
For that, you'll need an R0 of very high value. We are pretty lucky that its just covid, if it was something worse with R0 of 50, we would be pissing in our pants lol.
You are partially right- Because the virus has ran out of hosts! which the blobs could have vaccinated and others immune , or they could be eradicated and the virus will eradicate too!
"Recovered blobs are always immune"
Covid: a few months take it or leave it
When does this video game drop
Imagine being a dehydrated bruhify eagle instead of hydrated bruhify pelican smh
Actually it might be as much as 2 years for some people
@@space__idklmao and for some it might not last at all
@@aldondekock6192 it’s not technically a game it’s a simulation
It might be considering a game but I’m pretty sure it’s just considered a simulation
When you’re vibing and you suddenly start turning red
Frick
ah fuck, I can't believe you've done this
Betrayal
I've become a hawk. GIMME HALF OF YOUR FOOD!
*If I can’t have it, you can’t have it*
WACK
3:22 I love that educational TH-camrs now reference each others work using cards.
I'm so proud of the community and how it makes complicated topics easy for people to understand
Honestly, I was really rooting for Blue Blob #24.
Now he’s Gray Blob #24
I was actualy rooting for his rival, Bleu Blob #43, i just think that she had realy good writing, and is a very interesting character
I was a fan of blob #79 but since the authors ruined her in season 3 i sstopped watching the show
@@pinklasagna8328 Same thing happened for Blue Blob #24 after the 5th....it's been a while since the comment, he fell off. :/
"death rate" would have been an interesting variable, but I can see how that would have been much more complicated.
It wouldn't matter. Immune and dead blobs are basically the same value because they both can't contract the virus anymore. The only thing the death toll would add is show us how much the population decreased
@@silversunset But when the blob dies from the disease they wouldn't be replaced with a new blob that is susceptible to the disease. That could change the outcome. Also the disease could possibly wipe out the blobs if the death chance was high enough.
Adding a chance of acquired immunity can change the result too..
Afaik we don't know yet if cured people from covid is almost 100% immune.
Death rate also going to change the result, what will happen with the population after the epidemic.
Rei7 6 rwo87 with a variable is a script ok
It's not really any more complicated than taking the number of people that became grey, and coloring 0.1% of them black.
"Mom, can we get Plague Inc?"
"No, we have Plague Inc. at home"
Plague Inc. at home:
It made me and my brother cry because they were singing Crepy and and stuff
@@sandybrown3373 I know what part you mean
Me: *_Thanks mom._*
@Ashley I agree
I'll have the home version thanks
We have been blessed by having 2 Primer videos in the span of 3 months
I can't believe it. This video is exactlty my final degree project, which I presented a year ago. On my case, I simulated the infection with a multiagent system with Jason language (AgentSpeak) for a population rounding 30.000 agents. I'm glad to see my results were so similar to yours. I worked with the same disease model SIR but I modified it, including Dead as a state and changing the ecuations, and also simulating the possibility of infection the same way, as agents leaving his house on certain days depending on his features as age, sex, etc.
Good job mate. Cheers.
Poor blobs they don’t deserve to be treated like this. They just got a whole city and now nearly half their population is dying. I do love these vids though
BLOBS LIVES MATTER
@@coiledsteel8344 The blobs have gotten too powerful. We must cull their numbers in order to stop them. Otherwise they will realise all of this is an simulation and their creator and his friends love to see them be killed over and over again. *_They must not know_*
what do you mean dying? you've seen they all turned grey afterwads? ;)
and dieing of age isn't a bad thing it's necessary, else you would end up in insane overpopulation
They all recovered though, so no deaths
I said 𝘥𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨, didn’t say they actually died.
Anyway, What I’m saying is that they don’t deserve to be treated that way. Getting infected and all.
imagine we are a simulation of an
omnipotent primer-being
That explains why I look like a blob in real life ! *eats mango*
Mmm delicious mangos
mangoes and wood make me happy
Manga and woad makes me happy :D
Wait, we're not supposed to like Japanese comics and dye?
You know to much
I would have liked to see the effect of 1. social distancing on the outcomes in all cases, 2. what if only one person from each household went out (instead of 3), and 3. The effects of masks on people who have the disease in all cases as well.
Just lowers the infection rate in different ways, unless you were looking for more insight?
The problem with 1 and 3 is that they are highly variable. Putting them into the simulation would provide very little tangible data because, at this point, there really isn't an accurate way to simulate such things. If we made broad assumptions, sure, we could test it, but I don't think there is an accurate way to do it just yet.
If only one person went out it wouldn't affect the overall outcome because they would just bring the infection back to their "family" so proportionally it shouldn't change anything but it could possibly slow the infection rate by chance.
I doubt you could accurately simulate any of those considering the effects of those things on a large population scale haven't been scientifically proven yet
Edit: except #3, for that it is proven that infected people wearing masks are less likely to transmit the disease
There is a video by TH-camr 3 Blue 1 Brown (I might misremember the name) about this. He ran simulations too.
Seeing this 3 years later it is amazing how good this is explaining the fundamentals in a simple and enjoyable way.
The fact that blobs may become susceptible to get infected again is so good. So many other yt videos failed on that or just went to short on the explanation, but in this video is clear and simple.
Imagine you are at work and the scetchy red co worker starts coughing
Red sus
@@samanthashort6135 idk man. I think gray sus. He changed color from red to gray.
the suspicious red fellow 😳
@@Hewhoroamstheinternet I think red is sus he was blue but probably hacked to be red
I'm curious about how we could model the economy during these simulations as well.
For example, maybe have the buildings survive by taking in a certain amount of currency supplied by individual blobs. Then try to simulate social distancing and have the blobs stay home once the epidemic reaches a certain threshold. When the epidemic is over, what does the city look like? What if blobs can only survive and live in homes if they have money for rent. How many blobs die of malnutrition and homelessness due to the epidemic, rather than the virus?
Maybe even simulate a government's decision making (forcing people to stay home, pretending it's nothing to worry about). And then see how both the economy, and the population is affected.
Which decisions ultimately result in the least deaths and infections, as well as the least impact on the economy? Which decision ultimately destroyed both? If one decision happens to save everyone, how badly is the economy damaged? If a decision saves the economy, how do the people suffer?
Maybe add a third option: do the people listen? What if the government picked the "best" choice based on our simulations above. Does it still minimize economic and health costs? or if the population refuses to listen to the government, is there any possible scenario where everyone can still be saved? All things considered, which combination of all these variables saves the most lives and money?
Models like these would be a lot better at analysing individual countries in my humble opinion. I'm not an epidemiologist, but I assume that these are exactly the kind of models they're building and use when they make predictions. Ultimately, I just want to see how the colourful blobs react under each circumstance lol.
I hope he takes the time to read this. Well constructed and a much more sensible comment than anything I've been reading so far
I would love to see a real covid economy simulation
Off, that would take so much computing power and add a level of complexity that is really hard to code
Best option:
- *free healthcare & paid sick leave*
- immediate, strict, brief lockdown.
- comprehensive tracing, testing & isolation.
- pivot of non-essentials to essentials, eg: fashion & liqor -> masks & disinfectant.
- complete freeze on firings, rent & mortgage during lockdown.
- temporary salary raise for essential workers; same salary for work from home; unemployment check for shutdown busineses - without loss of jobs.
- reopen with mandatory distancing & masks in public.
- *severe punishment for non- compliance*
@@etooamill9528 not necessarily, compute goes down to optimizations, and hardware now a days is really fast. Coding wise it's nothing special either, literally just decision making algorithms on your character classes. Literally extra if/else if statements.
This dude has only 11 vids and almost one million subscribers. That's quality
Quality, not quantity!
Recently discovered this channel. It would be fun if these models were accessible online somewhere, so viewers could enter their own variables and experiment with outcomes.
Even if the animation isn't present and the engine simply outputs the graphs, that alone would be fun.
"They go to three places each day"...
Me: I was home all day before quarantine, these blobs have better social lives than me.
Same
I also travel 3 places every day Those being my bed, the bath room and the kitchen.
unfunny
damn social blobs.
Just remove the "Me:" part and you got yourself a good comment
Primer doesn't upload often, but when they do, you know it's going to be good. Thanks as always for the upload!
Primer is super good at making simulations and all but lets talk about how nice his models look, they're all so pleasing to the eyes, not too bright and not too dark.
This is the only vid that mentions corona without a COVID-19 warning
Ikr-
“Great video!” - some person before the video premieres
Very enticing
It’s a great Video !
Bread Sandwich wow u are funny memer
@@thegreatestchigone5813 yea!
So true
LMAO I THOUGHT THE ‘ERADICATION PHASE’ WAS HUMAN EXTINCTION
Based.
Thats one way to get into that phase tho lmao
I mean, the Halo method is quite effective, assuming that no one preserves the thing you’re trying to eliminate.
“Human Extinction”
*the best-case scenario*
It's the same kill rate as the swine flu well be fine
Me when I see Primer uploads :)
Me when I see “premiere in 18 hours” :(
Same
16 hours gang!!!
@@maryrodriguez976 :D me toooo
Mary Rodriguez Yeah now
I'm with all of you!
this video was shown me today from youtube and i know, this is a simulation but the one at 8:28 realy hit me, looking back at the last months
“A new blob appears, that blob will have a chance to be vaccinated.”
*Karen disliked the post*
Lol
don't woooosh my but
a chance to be vaccinated means that not everyone gets vaccinated
the reason it’s a chance is because of Karens so if she doesn’t like it it’s on her
Also it’s hard to vaccinate everyone. There are many many people
Yeah, and some people's immune systems actually can't handle vaccinations, so it's very important for those who can to get vaccinated
THE RETURN OF THE GREAT OLD ONE KEEPER OF KNOWLEDGE AND WISDOM HAS COME! ALL WILL REJOICE!
Blob
Turns on the live chat:
"MUMBO FOR MAYOR!"
"Is this a live stream or a video?"
Its cursed
Blob.
xXGIMpL0rdXx I... wha? IT ESCAPED
MUMBO FOR MAYOR!
loli blob
@@dontlookatmyvideoREE whyyyy.... stress or scar would be way better and funneir ahhhhh ahem hehe
After watching your video I've finally understood that there's a reason why there are still another waves of covid instead of ceasing after a while, thanks!
You know what’s great about learning about stuff like this?
There’s simulations and the blobs and it’s not just boring numbers and stuff
Yeah it's fun to watch & it helps that he's not monotoned.
See everyone in 20 years when our kids show us this and ask us about coronavirus
Lol that's a smart comment
@@willwimbiscus7456 i think you mean clever. Or accurate.
Well, then, see ya!
DeMONITIZED
But if im still single in 20 years
I can’t wait till he starts talking about quantum physics in space with his blobs
Blob Space Program
The blobs are already selling rockets...
This man and his simulations were the backbone of my childhood
Petition for @Primer to add Blob Plushies to the store.
Sign here.
Yesss
You could have just Linked an actual Petition instead of begging for likes
yes but i wont be able to buy cus im poor boy
@@LaserDawg Yeah, but how would Primer see it? like if he linked the post, how would he see the signatures? Would somebody ping him on social media?
He could also just leave the ⏬ away and it would get likes on its own
Me and a friend actually made a simulation like this but more specifically with covid 19. We used unity and it works similarly. The differences being each person in a house has stats (like health conditions, boredom, etc) that decide their chances of going shopping, hanging out at the park, or death if infected. They also have different phases, not infected, infected without symptoms, and symtomatic which is when they go to the hospital
bro that is the coolest thing i have ever heard of
Wait the town hall thing building had "prefeitura" written on it, where are you from? Do you speak Portuguese or some othen latin language?
I think it's pretty common to have Latin on public buildings.
@@davidgustavsson4000 not really
EmNajdi Bruh
It is in some places.
@@lirachasmody There is Latin all over the public buildings here in PA
@@lirachasmody Yes it is... it's like one of the biggest staples in public architecture :/
I'll grant that it's more limited to government buildings but like... every single official building in D.C. and every state capital building across the united states, countless buildings across europe.. like, Greece and the language of Science (Latin) were the idols of the Enlightenment Era. Yeah, you're local public park might not have any, but that doesn't mean you wont find at your court.. your state legislature... probably several city halls across your state...
Well, it would be interesting to add death and age variables. Then you could show the difference between types of demographic pyramids.
When does this video game drop
I can’t tell if this is a joke or not
and this is an animated simulation, not a video game
@@oofman6744 r/wooosh
oksurethisisfine oh I low key would of dropped
@@fourside4237 Would be fun game tho ngl
@@kiwikiwi2483 yeah i agree i want this to be a real game it seems like an interesting concept
The best thing I’ve ever seen!
(This was written 17 hours before premiering)
wait what
remember to take notes, kids
blob
blob
blob
blob
blob
Imagine being a blob after 21 days of life: my time has come
Jokes on you we have an irl simulation.
sad laughter
hehehe...... comedy........
*cough cough* the us in 2020
@@z1re784 cough cough?
seems sus.
@@phonixfighter7966 its just a fl- flu...
It's been one minute and this is already the most interesting thing I've seen all month
COVID: makes people sad with sad COVID advertisements
Primer: makes cute blobs for COVID
Us: :D
Endemic, epidemic, eradication, extinction, economy and ecosystems, this guy loves his e's
Can't forget evolution! (Yes I just discovered this channel and I love it)
We love this channel for fun simulations and great explanations. We just linked to it from our company homepage which has a section for epidemiological models.
Algorithm, Inc. woah
TH-cam: let's have a "premiere" feature. Even though it'll trick people into thinking a new video is up and cause some disappointment, it's worth it for the live interaction!
Chat: MUMBO FOR MAYOR!!1!!1!
Joehills for dog catcher
How did... how did Hermitcraft get here?
@@katharosahughes9398 GRIAN AND THE PUPPET GOVERNMENT!!!!!!!!!!
Mumbo doesn't know why he is being campaigned
False and Joe are catching up though. I'm still waiting for Scar and Stress' confirmation too.
when your comment is older then the video
pug playzes when you comment is orgiginal
When your reply is older than the comment
When your reply is older than the reply you replied on
When your reply is older than the reply that replied to the reply
When your reply is older than the reply that it replied to that replied to a reply that replied to another reply, all of which are older than what they replied to.
GiveDirectly is a good charity. Nice of you to include
id love to see how this was coded you rarely see videos on how simulations like these are made from top to bottom. discovered your work while doing research and I admire the work that has gone into this!
imagine the [CURRENT WORLD EVENT] was like this and no deceases
no demonetizations for us lol
It's petty similar in this aspect
I've never been this early -17 hours after uploading!
*before uploading
Whoops my mistake. I mistook the negative for a hyphen ;-;
Also, how is that a woooosh?
@@silversunset r/woosh
@@silversunset That'd be a double negative, resulting in 17 hours after uploading, which is not the case.
I once made a level -3000 seconds ago.
now that's quick designing.
Now my biggest question: could this simulate a zombie outbreak
That would require blobs dying and a lot more complex stuff
Luckily I was given a vaccine
:o
'○'
Lol
Rip
😂
Covid 19 after watching this video:
*_just like the simulations_*
years of academy training not wasted
Watch those wrist-sneezers!
Primer:New blobs will have a chance to get vaccinated
Karen:ight,imma head out
Where is it
@@Mamba922 in the video
K A R E N B L O B
what a video, truly amazing how you guys show us another way to see things that happens irl. If there were more variables into the simulation, sure it will be some chaotic thing, love it.
From collecting wood for heat and eating mangos, to having a city
The blobs are evolving
Well they were making rockets not to long ago right?
Keep in mind: this doesn’t include deaths
Why should he ? 7,77 Trillion people on the world, only 3 million died in more than 1 year. so thats basically 0,04% after more than 12 months. call that a pandemic xddd
@@arditshqipe1420 did you really just say 7,77 trillion
@@arditshqipe1420 omg I hope your joking-
@@lantern7413 tbh, I'm lucky that there isnt that many people in the earth, to many people..
@@arditshqipe1420 still a lot of fucking dead people
A new Primer video? YES
It feels good to know that we are currently getting into the eradication phase🥳
I hope wherever you are things are going well, but here in Michigan we're still experiencing record shattering cases.
@@theonlyshinyumbreon, that’s because it’s a new strain
Lmao no we're not. Covid-19 is always going to be here. It's apart of our natural world and will be an Endemic, especially with population of psychos that deny reality like the vaccines or the virus itself.
@@IgnarHusky we are not good at getting to no cases we are good at slowly reducing the cases and making them show up less often and in more limited areas look at the common cold, pneumonia, flu's, Chicken pox, mums, measles or anything you had to take vaccinations for but new strains, mutations or the lesser activity due to lower cases to stop it causes it to still be around.
@@IgnarHusky idk if this helps but considering that the 'crazy' are still the most subceptible due to not vaxinated, eventually we'll have them die off more n more so there will be less crazy in the future
In the thumbnail theres no "immune" type. You should add that next time you do something like this, just a suggestion!
Edit: they should be rare too
@@jechet10 He probably meant the vaccinated, at least that's how I get it
I can't escape the vriska
None is immune but the recovered here, why two immune?
you're referring to inborn (or natural/native) immunity, where immunity is naturally existing without prior sensitisation to an antigen. I always think "x and y would be cool to add to this simulation" but the truth is, if primer spent all the time adding this and that and every other detail that we can think of, we'd probably still be here next year waiting for the video to be released. So instead lets just show some love for another insightful video. 👍
immune people would be too rare to affect anything
No playing with death rates?! They just die like Logan's Run at the ripe old age of three weeks. Kinda important to measure mortality when talking about pandemics, otherwise it's just an inconvenience to be sick.
true, true.
It becomes way too complicated to add death rates to such a simulation.
@@petartodorovic5477 It actually doesn't, since the blobs permanently recover and the dead can't spread the disease, we can test the dead just like the recovered in the simulation.
@@petartodorovic5477 Did you miss the part were they only live for three weeks? He added a death rate equal to a birth rate, cycling in new susceptible populations.
@@wavywomby263 Problem with testing the dead with recovered is the dead can't reproduce. Kinda important thing for anything living to do. It's why we model the world in simulations, not just on computers, but in our heads. We are hard wired for survival.
Nature explorer: And now we will see Blobs in their natural habitat...
4:00 This graph was such a clear representation of Herd Immunity for me.
Can you add an orange Blob, that's kinda guiding all the other Blobs and is giving them completely random orders by each day, like social distancing, going out on the streets to infect other Blobs or drinking disinfectant?
Replicate the chaos
dont forget putting light bulbs inside us. how else are we suppose to shine those sweet sweet uv rays on our ailing organs?
Omg this is absolute gold
Autumn Chaser its actually orange
i like to see more of this!
how about add a mortality rate for this case?
how about add a new simulation where the "recovered blob" reduced its immunity by 1% each day, but reduced max to 50% or so (its to simulate the reinfection on recovered blob).
The “immune” blobs would include the dead ones. That just represents the blobs that can’t be reinfected, be it from death or natural immunity
I love how this video is about science but everyone is in love with small blobs
Xx_TheCoolGuy Gaming_xX yeah lol
I mean,who isnt?!
@@jodii.6 hehe
@@AarowSummerPotato hehe
@@jodii.6 u say u love blob 👉👈
I always like how neutral and informative your videos are. Best way to teach.
*premiers in 17 hours*
everyone: REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
well shit this is alot of likes. Yikes
*obligatory thank*
So are you going to raise R0 any higher?
R not
He's smart not to use the "C" word in his title
Yes. "Epidemic, endemic, cunt and eradication simulations" doesn't quite have the same ring to it .
@@davidgustavsson4000 Tis some fine comedy
Also, I commend him for consistently pointing out the differences between the simulation and real life. Its just analyzing patterns, it's not a real-life prediction
He mentionned COVID-19 in the video so I'm pretty sure the bots gave that nice yellow dollar sign for this video.
i love your videos. they are my go to while im high and they make me feel smart because they break down concepts i couldn't understand in a way that make sense to me (visuals). i have a hard time learning things without visuals bc of my adhd, and these videos make me excited to learn a tidbit of information a day
Smae
It would be interesting to add a hospital and a death-rate to the simulation, and perhaps even make a variation in the effect of the decease undetected/mild/severe and death rates being different for each of these categories. The chance of survival being depending if you could get treated at the hospital assuming a bed is available. You could then simulate what it means if people don't go out as much, and how it affects death rate. But then again, this already sounds much more complicated than your usual simulation setup.
This man has taught me more then my school
@@gameroom101official clearly their school didn't teach them even that.
@@gameroom101official proves his point then lol
If my math teacher explained like this I would end up being well at math.
I love that this was made in 2020