As a former USAF Intel I assess China did not want another Mao in the history books so they used Tom Hanks disease to do the job and distract from the job being done. They are vengeful of the US influenced one child policy. Don’t forget that. Anywho, Chris, I am your ILR Witcher. Sidebar?
China says their Birth Rate is slightly over 1 (2.1 needed to sustain the Population) but I'm not even sure of that, in theory China could have 4 kids per couple and be heading out of this in 20 years, although dealing with Population issues for 20 years and x amount after, however, it's incredibly doubtful China will even get to 2.1 unless the do it at literally Gun Point, and I don't see that happening, so when we say China's going to be cut in half Population wise by this Date, but there Population is set to Keep Collasping till the come out the other end, than add the Death Spiral to the Economy it could compound that further! We are talking a Complete Collaspe of Society, it's possible China gets under 300 Million by the End of this Century, it's possible.. and a left behind toxic and crumbling waste land, a cautionary tale, expect their Higher Ups Know This, and they'd be more than happy to take US all down with them given the chance, and trying to overrun South East Asia to try to Stave that off, no matter how futile, could be what they see as their way out of This. Wars on the Table!
What everyone leaves out about Fertilizer or Food Issues, or Energy Issues is it's not our Problem besides the Price being x amount inflated, but not as high as other places for x Reasons and we have more money to deal with our lower costs compared to them. We are the World's Largest Food Producer and Exporter, We make enough Fertilizer for US and can export some because of such, because we have the most energy in the World Surrounding US and inside US, and when you compare pipe lines to shipping it across seas, most of that Cheap Energy is for US, and compared to everyone else, it will be cheaper! Because we use our Soft Power already to ensure our Prices are lower here than other places, like compare gas prices here to Europe before, point proven. But people frame all this as Dynamics held against US, However all these Dynamics are why we are going to Remain #1 and all our Enemies are Throwing a Fit while they can before it's all to obvious! We got to make it through this Decade without Civil War, and we literally got the 21st Century!
☣☣☣🇪🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸☣☣☣ don't worry about China.... USA has a population collapse for 30yrs now. More dead whites than being born. Plus, life expectancy for whites has been in decline for 20yrs, shorter than China. Increase white Male suicides has drastically increases. Only Hispanic coming to USA is increasing. Soon your channel will be in espanol! United states of Mexico India your employer.....is growing... but, they know it is a burden on their country. 80% illiteracy rates, most newborns are from rapes. Largest democracy is also largest corruption! Not to mention it's the west new dumping ground for pollution and slave labor.
not interested. peter seems clueless male to female sex ratio by country (25~50 year old category) china 1.05 India 1.07 Kosovo 1.12 Oman 1.33 Saudi Arabia 1.52 Kuwait 1.69 Bahrain 1.87 UAE 3.27
I worked in Beijing, China from 2004 to 2008. Every week couples flew in from North America and Europe and took home Chinese infants that they were adopting - almost all girls. Those little babies would be 14 to 19 years old now. Amazing that even that recently the Chinese did not see the problems that they were creating.
@@vitaboostand my buddies nieces best friend was adopted from China and goes to a great university and has opportunities she never would have had which is the norm.
The CCP isn’t forward thinking but rather is very short-sighted, and this is due to their big desire for immediate results…Things that they can show off quickly….They wanted to eliminate poverty quickly and slowing population growth using the one child policy is an example of this. Also the property bubble. They funded massive construction projects simply to boost GDP numbers even though it inflated the property bubble, but they preferred to kick the can down the road so long as the immediate results made them look good…..
The Chinese were able to do in one generation what the British did in seven generations because six generations of British had to discover things for the first time. China had the luxury of adopting practices that other peoples had already discovered. And if you have an authoritarian government you can impose those practices on a culture that never would have discovered them on its own.
Dude China was already a developed nation when Eurpoe was still living in the middle ages. Europeans did learn most of what they know from the people in the far east and from the Arab's. If you don't know shit about history, it's maybe not such a good idea to post comments. Maybe read a few history books before posting.
@@swissbiggy , everything you know about China being so great in the past was all propagated by Western Communists. Ancient China was all about tribal wars.
Years ago I went to China and observed an 80 year old woman working in the factory I was going to do business with. Don't you think that will happen to all their workers, they simply won't be able to retire. They will end up working until they are unable to.
@@user-co5mp3tm2zbut those people who retired weren't having enough kids.. that's a problem.. that means you're having less youth replace your retiring workers that means you're going to have a diminished GDP.
@@tobinsarttrading1733they won't have the jobs like they did.. less population means less workforce.. less workforce means diminished gross domestic product.. so one of two things happen.. the growth and the standard of living that the Young generation parents built and grew up with is going to go away.. or in order to maintain that standard of living China is going to have to demand more value extracted out of what they can produce with their shrinking population.
I'm not sure what to think about this guy. He's well-spoken and very confident, which makes it easy to believe him. He knows a lot about the things he talks about, or at least appears to. I've also seen him be horrendously off base, while continuing to speak with the same kind of confidence. I dunno. He's absolutely a pleasure to listen to, but I feel the need to take him with a large grain of salt.
I've heard some complete bullshit come out of his mouth. The thing is unless you are well versed in the topics being discussed you won't have any way of realizing how wrong he is
Agree, this guy is bullshiting. Why would China need to expand when the population shrinks? It’s a big country, china’s own land can support a smaller population for sure
West Aussie farmer here. Great talk here about food and fertiliser. 12 months ago a particular fertiliser blend I use cost $750 a ton same blend cost over$1300 a ton this year
Great video! According to certain economists, there are projections indicating the possibility of the United States and certain parts of Europe experiencing a recession during a portion of 2023. While a global recession, which refers to a decline in annual global per capita income, is relatively uncommon due to the faster growth rates of China and emerging markets compared to developed economies, it is important to note that if economic growth lags behind population growth, the world economy is generally regarded as being in a recession.
My primary concern at the moment is finding ways to generate additional revenue during challenging economic times. I cannot afford to witness my savings diminish to nothing.
Exactly! Which is why I appreciate giving a financial advisor the power of decision making. Giving their specialized expertise and education, as well as the fact that each and every one of their skills is centered on harnessing risks for its asymmetrical potential and controlling it as a buffer against certain unfavorable developments, it’s practically impossible for them to underperform. I have made over $1.5millions working with John Desmond Heppolette, for more than five years.
Thanks for the information! He really seem to know this stuff. I found his web-page when I made a google search of his full names, read through his resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. I left him a note and booked a call session with him..
To succeed the financial market, you must review and put into consideration the dynamics of your assets prior investing. Analysis based on research is vital which is why I recommend investing with a financial advisor if you don’t know the basics.
Wishful thinking, it seems Zeihan has it backwards. I've looked at Chinese census data, and if anything, they are finding it's better than expected, for example China just "discovered" 12 million extra children born between 2000 and 2010, most of whom were girls. Why? One child policy made them HIDE their extra girl children so they can try again for a boy. Zeihan's odd 100 million overcounting claim is such that he is saying people had girls, reported their births, then killed them. Uhhh, no. While yes many Chinese did abort their girls, they did it before they reported them as births (either aborted during pregnancy or infanticide usually right after birth and finding out it wasn't a boy, sadly, I've seen abandoned baby girl carcases thrown in the refuse in China like it was just garbage, quite traumatizing to see). They don't keep the girl, report it to the government and keep it for a while, they'd get attached. They almost always get rid of it immediately, before they can get attached. No woman is going to breastfeed a baby they intend to murder and they didn't have formula back then. What DID happen is many mothers HID the births of their first girl or first boy even, so they could have their first son or even a second child. So China's demography actually is better than expected, in 2016 after the one child policy was lifted, demographers began discovering that there were anywhere from 30 million to 60 million hidden girls in China born from 1980 to 2010, which is good news for China. There is no way of knowing the true number of how many millions of girls went missing unless they get discovered or self-report as many of them have lived for decades using false identities (i.e. borrowing a sibling or cousin's ID whenever they need ID, living with another identity, living offgrid, etc.). I personally know of a few Chinese who have mislead society/govt on their birth origins. Also, Zeihan is clearly wrong about which countries are the worst fertility rates. The worst country in the world is South Korea who has a fertility rate of 0.8, which is about 1/3rd of the replacement rate, they are shrinking by 2/3rds in the next 30-40 years. What Zeihan said about China is actually more applicable to South Korea. In 20 years, South Korea's military will shrink by 2/3rds. Meanwhile North Korea more than double the birth rate and is actively trying to increase their birth rate (now that they know they could beat South Korea in 25 to 40 years if they just increase their birth rate). So while Japan and South Korea implode (and ripple effects hit the West ontop of Europe's decline), America itself is not one of the best demographics, if you remove the importation of foreigners (and it's debatable whether a 400 million United States of Mexico in 2050 will be as effective as a 250 million America of the 1990's, you can't just replace the entire population and culture and expect that entity to be just as efficient and stable). Already, the mass importation of H1B workers is causing hugely destabilizing effects in the USA, one of which is about to be felt in real estate. San Francisco/Silicon Valley are starting to see home prices decline over 20% in the past 2 months as IT sector started layoffs, and there is a real question if the millions of H1B's, for example Indians, less than 20% of whom had citizenship back in 2008, now over 60% of them have gotten citizenship, are they going to stick around in a 8.5% inflation USA with 2% GDP growth? Or head back to India which has 7.0% inflation and 7.3% growth, yes you read that right. India has less inflation than America. What a joke America is now! I remember many of my indian friends one of their complaints about India when moving to America was how it's economy was unstable with high inflation, but now India has less inflation and more growth/stability than the American economy. So if America lays off 2 million Indian IT workers during a recession, now that they have citizenship they have no reason to stick around and be jobless during an economic slowdown in the USA, when they could take their millions back to India's booming economy and live like kings. The fewer millions who were here in 2008 did not have citizenship yet so they toughed out the storm in order to get citizenship. Same is true of other H1B and other economic migrants. If things here get worse than 2008 levels, then even Illegals may go back to Mexico if the jobs dry up here which would in turn cause rental vacancies to skyrocket. It could be a domino effect. So imagine millions of houses spilling onto the market. Importing tens of millions of people who are economic migrants with no loyalty to the nation, and who could easily return home (they are not slaves, and most have family in their home countries they'd like to go back to see) is a recipe for disaster if we face another Great Recession worse than 2008 (even if it doesn't reach Great Depression levels, if it does, then we're screwed). There can be a domino effect. If a million Indian H1B workers leave, they leave 1 million houses on the market, collapsing real estate dramatically (even 1% of American houses spilling on the market at the same time can lead to a 50% decline in home values if there isn't enough demand). Add onto that fact that many people in houses or apartments may move back in with their parents at a rate never seen before in history, and then if that domino gets too out of hand even the hired help/illegals may decide to bail (and then free up millions of apartments and rental homes, causing rents to plummet). And since most of America's wealth is tied up in their real estate values, it's basically game over for the USA. Meanwhile, in China, if demographics is such a problem, 2 years ago they implemented 3 child policy, and this past year they lifted all population restrictions. Next step will be possibly incentives, but China has noted that incentives didn't work in the west, so they may actually start taxing/punishing unmarried, childless adults. They banned video games except for 1 hour on Saturdays, and then banned boy bands and other male models to masculinize their society and remove unrealistic expectations of women in who they mate with. And now some Chinese provincial governments are starting to mandate attendance at dating events for unmarried young adults. China can deal with this problem because it's not subject to voter backlash like the USA is. It can just mandate away feminism and mandate marriage and births.
Damn, I knew the population situation in China was really bad... ... but I had somehow managed to forget rule number 1: always multiply by "worst case scenario to account for unreliable data".
@@taylorc2542 It makes no difference to the sustainability of European economies whether they are "native to Europe" or not (if anything, migrant workers tend to be more productive than natives). But if your concern is more "cultural" than anything else (i.e. filtered though a prism of more or less racist assumptions and prejudices), then I suppose it matters quite a lot.
It does make a difference, just ask Ukraine. Russian immigrants who immigrated during Soviet times have now risen up and taken quarter of the country with the help of their home country. Russians didn't become Ukrainian and nor will non Europeans become European.
@@vampireducks1622 You got a source on that claim that says migrant workers are more productive ? Immigration can be a net economic benefit, if its controlled over time. Where you can pick Iranian nuclear scientists which is more productive than average native. But is it comparable to the millions of migrants, with little to no secondary education, dont know the language of which they migrate ? Have to spend alot of money for them to even be productive. Which also is true with natives, but I dont see how you can say they are productive.
I am skeptical. In Europe after the plague decimated the population we got the renaissance. There was more wealth per person. China may benefit from a smaller population.
Yeah but the plague killed off the elderly, China's going to be majority elderly people which is something else entirely. It will put a huge burden on the few young people so how will they be able to benefit from it?
Here's china's problem. The primary way the country makes money is by making everyone's stuff. A "good" work schedule for the average Chinaman is 6 12's, meaning 6 12 hour days. Well when HALF of the country is retired the only way to pump out more manufacturing goods is either to get more efficient or hire more people. Theoretically they're already efficient AND working their people to the bone BUT they're not having kids. It's obscenely expensive to live in China and every woman remembers how they were treated by the one child policy. Having a small population works well for countries like Japan because they make their money by innovating new technology. China is going to have to get used to the thought of making half of their GDP because they'll only have half their labor pool they have now.
Peter is spot on about Western Australia 'not having soil in the way we think of the term'. This is the most fascinating (and frightening) interview I've listened to in ages. Thank you.
@@UpliftedCapybara i think it's just sand. i live there and basically every is just sand lol. that being said it's a massive state i might be wrong in some areas maybe there is good soil. western australia is geologically very old, so for reasons ive forgotten means we don't have fertile soil.
@@shamicentertainment1262 We have to add trace elements. Farmland all over the world gets fertilized. Perth's coastal plain is mostly sand, but east of the escarpment it is different. More clay in it.
No what he’s talking about is the need for phosphate fertilizer in WA. It’s not that WA doesn’t have soil per se, it’s more that it’s phosphate hungry, and phosphate is in very short supply at present. As to the nature of WA soils, on the coastal plains, they are very sandy but there are generally better loams inland, however the sandy soils with increased humus and organic matter have become incredibly productive. WA’s agricultural production, especially grains has gone through the stratosphere in recent decades from around 7 million tonnes in the 1980’s to over 25 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to minimum till techniques conserving soil moisture and greatly improving soil structures, and far better weed control from glyphosate and post emergent selective weedicide chemicals.
Well, it’s pretty easy to know that when a nation limits the amount of children you can have and the majority of babies that were born were males, your population will collapse later down the road.
As a Canadian, who has been seeing a steadily increasing influx for decades now of Chinese investment and investors looking for ways to get their wealth out of the Chinese system, as well as exit strategies for themselves, I have an idea where some of the missing 100 million people may have gone. Real estate markets in major Canadian cities have been significantly affected by this phenomenon, and even in smaller cities on the prairies properties can be found which were purchased purely as investments and have been left empty. I’ve heard a number of horror stories about owners who apparently didn’t understand that you can’t just shut off all utilities to a home in Canada for several months when you take a trip back to China. Many branches of major Canadian banks, even on the prairies, make a point now of always having at least one teller on duty who speaks Mandarin.
It's fascinating that for decades we've been told that population growth would lead to the downfall of countries and even the planet. Now it looks like what's going to take out major powers will be population decline
I don’t feel bad for the Chinese government they killed millions of girls and now the very thing they wanted to get rid of they realize they need for the survival of the entire country. They made their bed they need to lie in it!
nonsensical theory, almost all rural chinese family have 2-3 children. Years back, most rural chinese families don't actually report their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th child.
Never heard of this guy before. Gonna have to listen to the rest of the interview later. The upsidedown demographics in industrialized nations is already a well established phenomena. Turns out population growth isn't gonna be a problem so much as finding ways to motivate successful young adults to have families.
@@doomedbook1020 No, but there is a inverse relationship between income levels and number of children for women. And high income levels are also a negative predictor for long term marital success for women as well.
Chinese seniors do not have a social safety net to fall back on. Every couple is supporting their elderly parents on both side--the husband's and the wife's. Land for agriculture in China have been reduced due to uncontrolled pollution. One has to even question the health safety of any Chinese agricultural product.
It's nowhere near as bad as you seem to think. I live in China, and China produces massive amounts of food, it even exports a lot, and the pollution/rubbish problems have been greatly Improved in only a few short years. Things can still be improved a lot of course, but food here tends to be cheaper and better than my own native country of New Zealand.
"One has to even question the health safety of any Chinese agricultural product" IMHO "One has to even question the health safety of any Chinese product"
Overcounted by 100 million people, 2/3 probably would have been girls (who may have been drown in buckets in rural areas so the parents could try again for a son). Populations collapsed more dramatically during the Medieval Black Death, weakening the ruling class warlords and strengthening a merchant class that led to the Renaissance. What will our Renaissance moment be?
Except the black death affected the entire world, every society become drastically different, so its gonna be less Western Renaissance, more American Indian style civilizational collapse
to the black plague succeded a tremendous economic growth, ressources were plentyful , land was avalable , it happened all over Europe. So maybe some countries will have population collapse, but it might be followed by a new population growth, because who will be left, will have everything at their disposal. We should all do like Japan, buckle up , not try to compensate by population replacement, protect our civilizations. It'll be a transitory crisis.
Also means that 2/3rds of the population is very spread out. But it seems to me that much of the population increase is immigration, and Auckland is heading to 1/3 Asian, 1/3 Pacific Islander/Maori, and 1/3rd European.
Why cant China re establish a balanced economy after reducing to 600 to 800 million population? Regardless of timeframe. Handling the elderly, retirement and health systems would be a challenge but achievable with a common goal. Problems create opportunities.
@@xidaq4998 It's happening all over, but seems that China is getting the brunt of the damage. I believe the issue is the same all over. Standards are lowered to keep food prices competitive. This includes safety devices such as fire suppression systems, not repairing barely functioning equipment and no safety training such as fire drills.
The thing this guy didn’t mention regarding France is it’s not the native ethnic French population that’s growing. The native French population is contracting as dramatically as the Japanese and Koreans. I expect that the newer expanding group will challenge the native French for control of pockets of that country within a decade or 2 that could lead to major social unrest and upheaval that will jeopardise the viability of the EU.
@@joekerr9036 It’s not really the Africans, it’s the Berbers and Arabs of North Africa and the Middle East mainly that are growing at a high birth rate. Shari’a will come to Paris. It’s already in the northern suburbs.
I refuse to accept that less people as 'terrifying'. It'll be different, but different economics is not something to be afraid of. It will never lead to zero, that's ludicrous.
I keep saying it will change some societies and cause people to move and intermingle. The human race will just adjust in the same way it has before through out history.
@@TheEggroll4321 Modelling? Like COVID modelling or climate modelling? You can only believe it could lead to zero if you ignore anything that humans are or what they do.
A few months ago I found this guy in youtube and I was impressed by his "predictions". As time went by it became clear that none of his catastrophic visions (supported by "very serious reports and research") were even close to reality, FInally I got to one conclusion that has become a very accurate rule ever since: If Peter Zeihan says it, then believe the opposite and you'll get to the truth
what Peter Zeihan says makes a lot of sense to me. If he was just making predictions without any valid reasons, it would be another story. Let me make sure that you understand that predicting the future isn't easy, but if you're using actual data, analyzing it very well, then your predictions may more likely to happen than not. There's nothing easier than being a critic. I think we should nominate you to be the person who breaks all predictions without having to explain why a lot of predictions aren't going to happen. Instead of data, you can use gut feelings. I think that'd be a very interesting channel.
@@JS-vl5gd no sir. I ignore many subjects, and that is the reason why I do not dare to predict catastrophes everywhere without at least taking the time to reason why what I predicted did not happen at all. Not even close. I decline your invitation (or command?) and leave that task to people like yourself, who seem to be very in tune with that kind of wisdom. Have a nice day .
But that method also makes no sense (if Zeihan says it…it’s not gonna happen). First, there is an old saying that even a broken clock is right twice a day. And second, we all know that we can’t see the future…all predictions have a poor track record. But at least for China’s demographic decline… the evidence is pretty solid. Virtually no other society has created a true inverted pyramid like China, and while that may not lead to “collapse” - it is pretty clear it will be a huge challenge.
@@BlueBobbinthose are such minor factors, apart from having later marriages. But even that comes down to the massively higher cost of living today, couples cannot afford to raise a child.
He's wrong about New Zealand. The cost of living is through the roof. There is no work outside the cities. No one or very few live outside the cities. There's a shortage of housing. Young people are leaving in droves as there are better opportunities overseas. We have an aging population as well. Things are not rosy here for many people.
@@Rosskles In western countries, there are bureaucracies that keep track of people. I doubt that many of the countries in Africa have the institutions that require accurate demographic data.
South Africa just dumped tonnes of oranges because of a disagreement with the EU, they're creating these problems on purpose because of EU made a silly new law about temperature in storage
I took some college courses here in America back around 2013 2014 and was in a class with a couple of Chinese students also studying. They spoke English very well and we’re very friendly and in a conversation I had with them I brought up the subject of China’s, “one child only“ policy and they were pretty quiet but I said, “that means there’s no brothers, no sisters, no cousins, no nieces, no nephews, no aunts, and no uncles. That isn’t a normal human society.” I went on to tell them that I’m the seventh child of a family of nine children and they were astonished. But concerning my comments about the policy, The girl was very sweet but spewed out the propaganda she was taught that there’s just too many people in China. The dude was much more honest he didn’t like it either, and he said, “if you’re rich enough in China you can have more than one child.“ he knew it was messed up. It’s scary how much this policy has damaged that country. Really terrible. Shocking.
Even more damaging would have been NO one child policy. The draconian methods were probably not necessary, but the Chinese would be like Africa is now, but far worse off, without population control.
2 things. First, thank you for this great interview Chris. Also, I love seeing the progression in your channel. You have quickly moved up my "must listen" list. You're up there with Rogan, Fridman, Ferriss for me now. Keep up the great work. Very interesting stuff.
I’m not sure long form interviews like this that only present one viewpoint are terribly informative for people who aren’t already familiar with the specific discipline/field being discussed. Especially not when the subject speaks so confidently, making it seem as if their analysis is simply objective fact. It can lead viewers who aren’t familiar with counter-narratives and associated evidence to draw the wrong conclusions.
It's a scary proposition for China. I wonder what Peter thinks of America's society and the way it's imploding from the inside out... The corrupt perpetuaion of the system and how it's completely unstoppable
The US is totally self-sufficient in food and, if the government gets out of the way, self-sufficient in energy in less than a year. We're about as safe a country as there has ever been. Neither Mexico nor Canada is a threat to us. Yes, the Canadians burned down the White House, but that was back in 1812 and we've pretty well forgiven them for that. Mexico tried and we wound up getting almost half of what was Mexico for our own. Much more profitable working with us than against us. The other two sides have huge moats on them protected by a navy that could take on the combined navies of the rest of the world several times over. No one is invading us here in the states. It's been 80 years since anyone has tried and all they got were a few Aleutian islands for a few months before we got around to kicking them off. There were territories we got from the Spanish-American war that Japan took and we had to take back, but nothing else on our home soil. Our demographics are not an inverted pyramid. More like a chimney. Not great, but not bad. We have great ports and more navigable inland waterways plus the intercostals, than any other country in the world and it's ten times cheaper to ship by boat or barge than rail (of which we also have an excellent system) or trucks (which drive on a really good interstate system). Only about 15% of our economy is engaged in any sort of direct foreign trade and half of that is with Mexico and Canada. We just aren't as geographically, structurally, or economically exposed to the same hazards as almost all of the rest of the developed and developing world is. Not saying we don't have problems. We do. Lots of them. But not existential ones like having your population shrinking every year with the average ages going up and up. We're going to be dealing with a labor shortage, at least for a while, but I think we can handle the scale that we're looking at here. What happens when a population ages? Once someone hits retirement, they're gone, overnight. They are no longer working and paying taxes and contributing anything. Instead, they start drawing pensions and Social Security and Medicare. They take all their investments and move them to super safe assets so capital availability dries up. Their years of experience are simply gone. Almost nowhere are there enough people in the generations behind them to fill their shoes. In some countries, like Russia, where they gave up on education, the generations coming up aren't really even halfway trained to take the jobs of those close to retiring. Not to mention the huge brain drain it's been going through in the last six months and especially in the last week or so. They're heavy in the contingent of the very few (primarily tech workers) who were qualified and filling important roles that no one else is educationally capable of taking over. That loss may well be worse for them in the longer term than what they're going though simply by being cut off of many goods by the sanctions. The multinationals that have pulled out have taken their expertise with them as well. The Russian technicians who worked with them may know that this valve got turned and then that one, but not know why or when to do it. Even in the rest of the world though, there aren't as many young people buying cars and homes and paying for education and raising a family. So who buys the consumer goods that are being manufactured? You can't sell it in your own country because you don't have enough consumers anymore and almost all the other countries you try to sell to are in the same boat. If you can't sell it, you can't make it. If you can't make it, then the businesses start closing. Your economy shrinks. Japan was the first developed country to hit this wall. They didn't have a Baby Boomer generation. Their "lost decade" has now lasted for more than three decades. With many fewer working age people, they automated the heck out of everything they could. They built factories in the places where they sell their goods and where there are still workers. There's a dozen or more countries ready to hit that wall in the next decade or so. Japan got there first. It's going to be a lot harder for the rest, even if they are a big enough economy to have the money to try to do the automation and production moves and many, if not most of them, aren't big enough to try.
America has lasted for 250 yrs, been through a civil war, two world wars, industrial age, information age, the Constitution still stands. As long as the Constitution stands, our ocean moats intact and our soil fertile, we will always prosper.
@@robbenvanpersie1562 Rome lasted 500 years. Thats nothing to scoff at and Rome was too large for its own good during a time when internet connectivity wasn’t a thing.
@@pugilist102 your beloved nation has illegally invaded, done dozens of coups, backed extremists, sanctioned, bombed and threatened dozens more.seeing as it's immune from condemnation, reparations, or even a fair trial in international courts to address it's exceptionalism. One day the fight will come to your homeland and that will be a massive dose of karma. If infighting doesn't bring down your democracy (it's already captured and declining fast) then it's weakening dollar, unipolar shift and growing district and dislike of your nation will render it a side note in history. Read Bobby Kennedys Anthony faucci to understand how corrupt, and foul America has become. Some American people are fantastic and hardworking folk but are drowned out by the dipshit uneducated uncultured self righteous maniacs that govern your sick nation,
I have traveled all over China. They do not grow rice. They grow wheat. Everywhere there is wheat. Also, there is no grass, only food crops. Every spot of land, food crops are grown.
Bro when he said the Chinese population will drop to 650 million my stomach dropped, that's insane. I would rather have a wealthy China than a poor China w/nukes
Why would China become poor just because they have less people? When America only had 50 million it was still a wealthy prosperous country. Endless growth is impossible so at some point the population needs to decrease to something more sustainable and stable
@@Montezuma0 the problem is that if they keep having more old people then young the economi will collaps that could mean war and a lot of suffering wich in turn makes the population growth worse. It will propabley be stable again some day but in the mean time it will be brutal for china and probably the world.
@@sabelotoda2 Short term it’s bad but long term it’s more sustainable. You can’t just have unlimited population growth forever. It’s impossible. Better to decrease the population to something more sustainable and then keep the birth rate stable
@@Montezuma0 the idesl is too have a stable population you do that by having a birth rate of 2.1 so that the population dose not shrink but dose not gorw either. That how i took the first coment in the short ther the conditions could get sooo bad that it could lead too nuclear war. In the best sanatio they would have a 2.1 birth rate alredy but they dont have it and who knows how much time will pass before they change it.
There is something you need to take into consideration in the gender imbalance. 1. Materialistic mindset in many women. They want to leverage their beauty for a potential "high value " suitor. For some women it is annual salary and net worth that is set at a minimum number. 2. Independent mindset to want their own money from a career instead of wanting to start a family. 3. Waste of time 16 to 35 are prime child bearing years, but it is spent working to aquire material gain.
I’ve followed China’s agriculture, manufacturing and military projection capabilities for some time, and everything he’s said checks out with what I’ve read. I still can’t sign on with his “China will collapse in ten years” claim, but his data seems in order
Yes. Life will always finds a way, even in “CCP” China. I can’t believe that he said they would be below 700,000,000 people within 20 years? That’s insane.
According to an estimate by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the average age of the population in 2020 was 44.7 years. By 2050, it is estimated that about one-quarter of the population will be over 65 years old. Similarly to other parts of the world, aging in China will also result in challenges for the healthcare system and the economy. It is important that China takes measures to address the impacts of aging, including promoting health and well-being in old age, supporting older people in work, and promoting innovative solutions for caring for and supporting older people.
Unfortunately that's a rosier prediction then most leading experts. And that's in a 25 year context. By 2100 China's population is expected to be around 580 million people... unsustainable for a country China's size.
new zealand has leveraged off its clean and green reputation for a long time but the reality in terms of loss of tree canopy, loss of soils, pollution and water quality paints a very different picture.
Remember that as temperatures rise, rice growing becomes difficult (rice can't self fertilize, grain is poor in quality). This is affecting rice agriculture in many places, including China).
Fantastic analysis! Reasonable, measured, thoughtful. Something you don't see much with analysts trying to drive a talking point. Sure, there is a talking point, but he has it backed up... very little conjecture. Look forward to seeing the rest.
at 9:27 he says it's difficult getting good information from China - except this guy of course at 12:00 he says that China will have a food collapse - if only you could, instead of starving, say, import food from countries such as Russia or Ukraine. Plenty of countries already do that, and I imagine China has more purchasing power than many of the other food importers. But his conclusion is that China needs to invade India, Vietnam, etc. 12:30 Taiwan and Japan could go nuclear in a month so that just leaves Russia (which presumably can not go nuclear in a month) - sounds totally moronic to me. Also, the argument that you need space to grow your population... Palestine is doing a good job of growing their population and population density despite very little land
@@mikecarlton9000 People say the dumbest things. Also, maps are not really accurate in that if you want to turn a ball into a cylinder, you need to shrink locations in the middle (Africa) and expand places on the end (Greenland, Russia, and Antarctica) Africa is the second largest continent in the world. It also has the second largest population in the world.
This happened back in the early 2000s. China has been lying about their population size i remember reading stuff online back then that was skeptical that China actually had over 1 billion people living in it and im willing to be they probably never did or if they did it was for maybe a handful of years before they declined and have been lying about it in order to keep investors intrested in China
So Chinese population is collapsing and, at the same time China doesn't have enough food. It seems that less population is good in that scenario, especially when one considers that farming doesn't require much human labour anymore.
But farming does require tools and machinery which run on some sort of fuel or are reliant on some infrastructure. Which means workers are needed to prodice fueal and to build and maintain the infrastructure. But the population problem, specifically, is that there aren't enough births which means there will be less and less young people to work those jobs.
*While Zeihan is largely correct about China's demographics, he got a lot of basic facts really wrong (and I stopped counting at @**1:40**).* 1) Mao had nothing at all to do with the 1-child policy; he died in 1976, the policy was launched in 1980. 2) Mao actually urged families in the 1950s to have loads of kids; Mao believed China would out-man the West (you can still find posters with that message from the time). 3) Chinese started having fewer kids - on their own - due to the famines of the 1950s that Mao's Great Leap Forward caused. 4) The 1-child policy came out in 1980; the 2-child policy came out later (not before as Zeihan claimed) in 2016. *Point being, the guy rattled off 4 talking points...and every single one was wrong. That doesn't mean his analysis is wrong per se, but it does mean he's either sloppy or ill-informed.*
@@chasethehorizonx _Literally has zero effect on the demographics._ If a pundit came out talking about US politics today but then referred to the US as a former colony of Portugal, a former monarchy, a homogeneous ethnic population, and backwards technologically, you or I would be taken aback because he was so blatantly wrong about those aspects. Naturally, we'd wonder about the pundit's credentials. Ignorantia veritatis est periculosa.
@@nathannguyen09 And it works on zombies. Especially on those who believe authorities and are ideologically blinded. That's the beauty of propaganda...
Does anyone remember the Gipper? and his warning. The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, "I"m from the Government and I'm here to help." Sadly some people do seem destined to have to learn that one...the hard way.
I always disliked those nine words of his. The government that governs the best is the government that governs the most equitably and intelligently. (Norway is the country that comes to mind.) NOT necessarily the government that governs the least. (Haiti is an awful example of this.)
This actually sounds like really good news to me. Losing population isn't a bad thing when you are as severely overpopulated like our planet is. America has much less than 650 million and is very strong economically. This doesn't lead to zero population. If they make China a nice country people will want to live there and people will move there if China wants more people.
My depression era family members had 7-8 children. The next two generations only had three children. The next two generations have one or zero children. The future is bleak at best.
I wouldn't say terminal The Roman Empire continued even after loosing 40% of the population for centuries. Those were terrible centuries, as we all know, but it continued.
@@JLee-rt6ve Once Europe lost the Egyptian bread basket with the Arab Conquest of 641AD things went majorly down hill, and this on top of the Plague of Justinian over the previous century that killed 1/3rd of the European population, starting the Dark Ages.
Pretty much true. Japan stared having economic problems as its population shrank in workers and grew with respect. Young people work, have kids, buy houses, cars and TV’s not old people. America has been marching down the same path where few workers are supporting more people. Capitalism needs growth or it dies because commerce needs new customers.
I wonder what would happen, if China were afflicted with a highly communicable disease whose lethality profile skewed greatly towards ending the elderly?
@@adamdean5881 Shhh! You're not supposed to say that! You're especially not allowed to speculate whether an over-zealous Chinese laboratory decided that they could provide a solution to one of their country's most pressing strategic problems. And whether they got some schmucks from America to fund it. After all, when have the Chinese ever had cruel and ruthless policies regarding demographic management?
@@jimluebke3869 Thats a nice little conspiracy you've got there, too bad it doesn't hold water. China takes insane measures, more so than any other country on earth, to prevent the spread of covid (which kinda kills your tinfoil hat idea pretty quickly). China doesn't play games with Covid and will shut down cities for weeks when a case is confirmed. In general, they have an aggressive and authoritarian approach towards upholding a "Zero-Covid" policy. But yeah go ahead and pretend that you've figured it all out and some scary media force is trying to silence you. Kinda ironic that you're here saying something that you say you're not allowed to say lol, actual victim mentality.
I don't really care about china that much, I mean, good ruck to the chinese people in the coming century but whatever, what I'm more disturbed by is how every single thing we buy these days is made in china. We had better start building up some factories right now so when china can't build anything anymore we still have that chance.
@@andys5803he has no written material before 2011, and there is no internet presence that I’m aware of before the year year 2018, where did you see him say that china will collapse in the 2000’s?
@@mitchelgreen891 Mixed my dates up or I I can't find the original articles I saw, sorry it's been a while. But the first article in which he detailed his "China will collapse in 10 years" from a quick google search was on Jan 22, 2010! He says "I would say we expect the economic collapse of China in this decade...this region is so populous and so poor...China simply lacks the resources to cope."
@@andys5803 yeah I read that article, I’d say he said that as an attention grabbing headline, but some of the other predictions were spot on, such as the us pulling out of Afghanistan and Iraq, or Russia invading its neighbors, particularly the former Soviet states, also the rise of Mexico economically, with it struggling with cartels. Some were not as spot on, he said Iran would be pacified and Egypt would be a rising power. The end of the article says that ultimately the 2010s won’t be a decisive decade, but one where demographics will start to become a driving force in the global economy, which I’d say is pretty much accurate.
Its pretty obvious if you are only have one child per family and the majority are boys. You just don't have enough wombs to grow people. Its obvious the missing baby girls increases the decline radically.
Congrats China! You managed your goal of halving the population! We've been on about the dangers of overpopulation since I have living memory (I'm in my 50s) and finally someone's plan has come to fruition. Congrats on China's success!
@@finosuilleabhain7781 Well yes. The main issue is the population replacement rate. 'Are there enough of the younger generation to replace and support the retiring generation?' So yes, the old-young balance is a part of that, but not limited to that. Another issue is the male - female balance. Nations historically with high single lonely men populations tend to go to war. We also have a demographic collapse looming.
@@UltimatePowa In the 1960s it was commonplace for 1 worker/taxpayer to support himself and three, four or more, other people. 1 worker to 1 retiree sounds very generous.
Why does Peter Zeihan keep saying that Mao conceived of the one child policy, when Mao was quite pro-natalist and the policy only began in the late 1970s AFTER Mao had died?
Mao was a nut job. He starved tens of millions of his people, like Stalin. But, around 1970, the decision was made that to reduce the poverty in China they had to cut population in half. At the time they were about 1.2 billion. So, they are on target.
@@sdagoth3037 I don't know. He talked about the 30s and the 50s and then we had a pause. I've heard him say they collapse this decade before too. He means by 2030 the U.S is the only true super power.
@@sdagoth3037 no he's said before he means the 2020s. apparently this year we will see massive food shortages in the 3rd and 4th quarter, which affect hundreds of millions. so wont have to wait too long before we see if he is right about a whole lot of different areas.
This moron's being saying this exact phrase for a decade *already*. He's been wrong in just about every prediction he's done. Zeihan is a hack, and is such a geographic determinist he's also convinced Argentina is destined to be the main power in South America because of the River Plate.
If this came out 3 months ago, it won’t have taken into account the dramatic recent death toll of the Covid pandemic, plus the fact that there have been no births recorded officially in China in 10 months. Additionally, the rate of infertility in men has decreased by 1% per year due to the effects of plastics worldwide. Really good video.
The dramatic death toll from a 'pandemic?' China loses millions from pneumonia every year. 2020 was no different. Not due to a magic fairy dust 'virus.' All cause mortality didn't change in 2020.
@@Mishkafofer I thought it was extreme, but that was said to be official. You can’t believe anything really, but the Chinese don’t want to have babies it seems
The other problem is that Chinese people usually retire early at 50, but on the plus side, the culture has a history of respecting and taking good care of the elderly with many young people living with the elderly.
the problem is that after the one child policy, a young married couple would have 4 elderly parents to care for , and 8 grandparents if all are yet living.
I did enjoy that, I will clink the link to the full version, and I have subscribed! Appreciated the content, you seemed to ask poignant, directed questions, and your guest was wonderfully articulate. Thanks! First time caller, AND never listed before, but if more of your content is the same, I look forward to be a subscriber - Cheers (AND shared!)
All I can say is, I thank God that there are probably 20 clean well stocked grocery stores within 5 miles of my home plus 4 clean hospitals and the excellent infrastructure to get me to all of them. Americans count your blessings, these blessing could end overnight.
@@haroldfarquad6886 Pretty mind-blowing. As much as I might not like the idea of China becoming the world superpower, if the country collapses there will be a lot of suffering worldwide.
Another TH-camr said that China has some of the most fertile land in the world combined with a favorable climate, which allows for the of production two harvests a year, which in large part accounts for their population. Now I don't know what to think.
Zeihan is kind of wrong here. China has great agricultural land in terms of climate, for sure, but it's producing food for a billion plus people. They need massive amounts of fertilizer to support that level of production. It's more just a matter of being unable to accept any drop in output.
@@AUniqueHandleName444 they can & do supply more than enough food for their own people, but they can choose which groups to feed and which ones to starve. They even have more stockpile to last a year and a half compared to what America has, which is around 4 months in case of a war. The average Chinese own gold, most westerners do not. Most Asian countries rely heavily on China for a lot of produce they can't grow and China hoards half the world's grain. Unless you've been to Asia to see how much China really controls other countries economically and agricultural, then you will be shocked how just naive most westerners are on the real situation. China even owns hundreds of thousand acres of farmland in the USA, Australia & Canada. That food grown in their properties is either sold to Americans or they can choose not to plant to starve westerners out. Why on earth would they tell you what cards they have if they want to win as the next superpower? I'd fein weakness & poverty than flaunt in order not to get robbed or attacked. Look at the USA stealing oil & gold in the gulf in the guise of good intentions, destroying those countries that have resources in the process. Frankly, most of the world is sick of the USA for hegemony so I'm willing to bet that more countries would rather back Rus & China than the West when pushed to choose. These 2 countries have better things to offer and don't meddle in the running of their governments than the USA which only pushes their woke agendas on their cultures via politicking.
that is not the future. ( that is only valid in AFRICA ) AFRICA IS THE FUTURE. china rented acres on acres of farm land in Africa. CHINA cities sits low on the continental shelf like most major cities outside Africa: if the sea rises. Africa will be the only ARK. The north Heimphere will go through rapid destructive climate change because of a strange vortex regarding Earth's rotation. = This is why USA, European countries and China = all northern hem. had NO WATER in their rivers. ---------- this is why EU politicans are freaking out about climate change and about winter. Russia cut oil when the north will face some of the coldest winter in a generation. if winter dont get them, then its drought and wildfires or rolling waves of salt water into their farm lands
What frightens me the most as our interview is going on here I was researching the guest’s claims on china from population to soil and lol it’s all verified by reputable reporting including chinas own report after 40 years. Mind blowing data in a clip. Well Done gentleman.
This guy comes off so matter-of-fact with his predictions and doesn't seem to venture any counterarguments as to why he might be wrong or offer any sources for the listener to research on their own. Maybe a side effect of the medium. But, captivating sound bite so I guess I'll be listening to the full interview and checking out his books and career 😩😩
He's a huckster spewing nonsense with a straight face and total confidence... but that doesn't make it correct. 12:30 Taiwan and Japan could go nuclear in a month so that just leaves Russia (which presumably can NOT go nuclear in a month) - sounds totally idiotic to me. And he doesn't seem to understand that you can import food from other countries.
@@bravado7 OK, my takeaway on the Taiwan-Japan statement was that they would ready self-defense resources, and among those, invoke military agreements with allies. With regard to food export/import, I would point to the hampering currently in the Russia/Ukraine conflict where Russia is blockading Ukrainian grain exports upon which other nations are depending and which produces income for Ukraine (which right now could be marshaled for equipment and artillery to fight off Russian forces). Of course not everything he's surmising is correct, he can't actually know the future. It's comes down to historical clues and pattern analysis in these matters.
@@EyeSeeThruYou He literally said at 12:30 that Taiwan and Japan could go nuclear in a month so that just leaves Russia [which presumably, unlike Taiwan and Japan, can not go nuclear in a month] - pretty dumb, I know. Ukraine is getting tons of aid for free from other countries such as the US but more money is always good I guess. Russia tried to pull out of the grain deal but Turkey stepped up and personally guaranteed the safety of the Ukraine grain ships. Either Erdogan is a stand up guy or he really needs that grain as Turkey's inflation is above 85% and his political survival is at risk.
My sincere question to people like Peter and his followers is this: why are you so concerned about what is happening in China? Why are you not concerned about all the social issues plaguing the U.S. such as homelessness, illegal border crossings, drug/opiad crisis, mass shootings, high healthcare cost, etc.? There are so many social issues right here in the U.S. but yet you choose to ignore them and instead focus your attention on attacking China. That is the aim of your channel and your followers. Why so much hatred toward a country that has not invaded your land and people?
Everyone talk about or talk bad the winners.. they are selectively blind to own faults... worst of all, none of them has been to China... maybe it doesn't matter because their aim is to bad mouth regardless .
In a worst case scenario yes it is just possible that China’s population could fall to 650 million by 2050 by some estimates. Where there is consensus is that China’s population has already started to decline or is about to and the decline is likely to accelerate in the coming decades.
The UN’s estimates on China, even the recently revised ones are almost certainly wrong. They start from a base that’s too high, estimate a peak that is 7 years too late…still, and use fertility rates that are about 25% too high. China already has less than 1.3 billion people, they likely already peaked last year and their fertility rate will be below 1 in a few years and stay there for a long time. The next 20 years are going to be very ugly in China.
I think you mean 2100. China's population will be the same by 2035. So, how in 15 years will it lose half it's population? By 2100, China will have solved their population issue.
I believe the Chinese government is extremely scared of Covid. The Chinese government is so scared of Covid that it is willing to kill its economy and imprison whole cities in order to "fight" the virus. The reason why Covid is so scary to the Chinese government is because it is very dangerous to those over 50 years old. The Chinese government is a bunch of old people. The average age of the Chinese Communist member is 70 years old. There are only about 24 million Chinese Communist members under 35. Covid could wipe out the Communist government.
I thought the consenses for awhile now had been that they're on track to over take us as the largest gdp in the world by like 2040, and that they have more skilled workers.
The future of fAfrica is definitely the brightest in the world, at this point. Natural resources, sustainable population growth, and the interest of the 1%.
I'd love to see videos of people reacting to Peter Zeihan's commentary :) Just about everything he says about China boggles the mind. I get a lot more out of these interviews with him than just from his own videos, because of the questions people ask.
I'd like to say he's overplaying it but rumors of China's real function and or lack of function have been in play for decades and have always run really close to what he is saying and have hit most marks sooner than were assumed at the time. So....maybe?
@@thecustodian1023 Zeihen pushes it with how he phrases his arguments, but I think that's a function of his consulting work and trying to grab people's attention when he's giving a keynote. The more people in the West learn about what is and has been going on in China (especially since the pandemic) the more of them come around to his general view of things. I once double-checked his population numbers on China, and they're pretty much in line with what the UN is reporting (I think it's UNESCO?).
There are a few variables that were not spoke of. No 1, machines are going to be doing most of the work in the next 10 years in an industrial nation like chine. No. 2 china is a communist country and can make their population do what they want. That being said a lot of good points were made, but there is always the wild card variable that we can not see coming. Great discussion!!
We've spent decades cutting taxes, charging 1/10th the tariffs they charge,, going into debt, to bolster their jobs, buy their goods and build their economy in hopes they'd eventually reciprocate. All the while we never thought to consider the long-term ramifications of "one child". Whoops.
Watch the full episode here - th-cam.com/video/wRT7P-VKM0k/w-d-xo.html
As a former USAF Intel I assess China did not want another Mao in the history books so they used Tom Hanks disease to do the job and distract from the job being done. They are vengeful of the US influenced one child policy. Don’t forget that. Anywho, Chris, I am your ILR Witcher. Sidebar?
China says their Birth Rate is slightly over 1 (2.1 needed to sustain the Population) but I'm not even sure of that, in theory China could have 4 kids per couple and be heading out of this in 20 years, although dealing with Population issues for 20 years and x amount after, however, it's incredibly doubtful China will even get to 2.1 unless the do it at literally Gun Point, and I don't see that happening, so when we say China's going to be cut in half Population wise by this Date, but there Population is set to Keep Collasping till the come out the other end, than add the Death Spiral to the Economy it could compound that further! We are talking a Complete Collaspe of Society, it's possible China gets under 300 Million by the End of this Century, it's possible.. and a left behind toxic and crumbling waste land, a cautionary tale, expect their Higher Ups Know This, and they'd be more than happy to take US all down with them given the chance, and trying to overrun South East Asia to try to Stave that off, no matter how futile, could be what they see as their way out of This. Wars on the Table!
What everyone leaves out about Fertilizer or Food Issues, or Energy Issues is it's not our Problem besides the Price being x amount inflated, but not as high as other places for x Reasons and we have more money to deal with our lower costs compared to them. We are the World's Largest Food Producer and Exporter, We make enough Fertilizer for US and can export some because of such, because we have the most energy in the World Surrounding US and inside US, and when you compare pipe lines to shipping it across seas, most of that Cheap Energy is for US, and compared to everyone else, it will be cheaper! Because we use our Soft Power already to ensure our Prices are lower here than other places, like compare gas prices here to Europe before, point proven. But people frame all this as Dynamics held against US, However all these Dynamics are why we are going to Remain #1 and all our Enemies are Throwing a Fit while they can before it's all to obvious! We got to make it through this Decade without Civil War, and we literally got the 21st Century!
☣☣☣🇪🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸☣☣☣ don't worry about China.... USA has a population collapse for 30yrs now. More dead whites than being born. Plus, life expectancy for whites has been in decline for 20yrs, shorter than China. Increase white Male suicides has drastically increases. Only Hispanic coming to USA is increasing. Soon your channel will be in espanol! United states of Mexico
India your employer.....is growing... but, they know it is a burden on their country. 80% illiteracy rates, most newborns are from rapes. Largest democracy is also largest corruption! Not to mention it's the west new dumping ground for pollution and slave labor.
not interested. peter seems clueless
male to female sex ratio by country (25~50 year old category)
china 1.05
India 1.07
Kosovo 1.12
Oman 1.33
Saudi Arabia 1.52
Kuwait 1.69
Bahrain 1.87
UAE 3.27
I worked in Beijing, China from 2004 to 2008. Every week couples flew in from North America and Europe and took home Chinese infants that they were adopting - almost all girls. Those little babies would be 14 to 19 years old now. Amazing that even that recently the Chinese did not see the problems that they were creating.
As a Chinese girl,I’m happy they got good family,China abandoned them and doesn’t deserve them
@@vitaboostand my buddies nieces best friend was adopted from China and goes to a great university and has opportunities she never would have had which is the norm.
Good for the rest of the world bad for China.
Adoption is a drop in the bucket, that's not really the problem
The CCP isn’t forward thinking but rather is very short-sighted, and this is due to their big desire for immediate results…Things that they can show off quickly….They wanted to eliminate poverty quickly and slowing population growth using the one child policy is an example of this. Also the property bubble. They funded massive construction projects simply to boost GDP numbers even though it inflated the property bubble, but they preferred to kick the can down the road so long as the immediate results made them look good…..
The Chinese were able to do in one generation what the British did in seven generations because six generations of British had to discover things for the first time. China had the luxury of adopting practices that other peoples had already discovered. And if you have an authoritarian government you can impose those practices on a culture that never would have discovered them on its own.
Did you know that most of leonardo's idea's likely came from china
@@laurencew5220 Just no.
@@laurencew5220 Er, no they didn't.
Dude China was already a developed nation when Eurpoe was still living in the middle ages. Europeans did learn most of what they know from the people in the far east and from the Arab's. If you don't know shit about history, it's maybe not such a good idea to post comments.
Maybe read a few history books before posting.
@@swissbiggy , everything you know about China being so great in the past was all propagated by Western Communists. Ancient China was all about tribal wars.
Years ago I went to China and observed an 80 year old woman working in the factory I was going to do business with. Don't you think that will happen to all their workers, they simply won't be able to retire. They will end up working until they are unable to.
I am Chinese with ALLthe people I know of ALL retired early to give their posts to their kids
Yes I think in the future they will have jobs if they choose! But in recent times they have not generally had to work!
@@user-co5mp3tm2zbut those people who retired weren't having enough kids.. that's a problem.. that means you're having less youth replace your retiring workers that means you're going to have a diminished GDP.
@@tobinsarttrading1733they won't have the jobs like they did.. less population means less workforce.. less workforce means diminished gross domestic product.. so one of two things happen.. the growth and the standard of living that the Young generation parents built and grew up with is going to go away.. or in order to maintain that standard of living China is going to have to demand more value extracted out of what they can produce with their shrinking population.
Kind of like here
I'm not sure what to think about this guy.
He's well-spoken and very confident, which makes it easy to believe him. He knows a lot about the things he talks about, or at least appears to.
I've also seen him be horrendously off base, while continuing to speak with the same kind of confidence.
I dunno. He's absolutely a pleasure to listen to, but I feel the need to take him with a large grain of salt.
Example, please.
I've heard some complete bullshit come out of his mouth. The thing is unless you are well versed in the topics being discussed you won't have any way of realizing how wrong he is
This is exactly the kind of comment to take with a large grain of salt. Made no argument, cited nothing, merely made claims.
@@repCanada Demographics are what they are, and he's not wrong about China.
Agree, this guy is bullshiting. Why would China need to expand when the population shrinks? It’s a big country, china’s own land can support a smaller population for sure
West Aussie farmer here. Great talk here about food and fertiliser. 12 months ago a particular fertiliser blend I use cost $750 a ton same blend cost over$1300 a ton this year
Sorry to hear that, crazy economy. Good luck to you.
@@RenegadeRanga yeah, I thought the same. There’s no way it’s incompetence, too deliberate to be stupidity.
We need to produce fertiliser here. In the same boat farmer in NSW.
What Brand of fertilizer do you use?
Go on more sustainable ways not only in the agriculture but also in the life on regular basis
Great video! According to certain economists, there are projections indicating the possibility of the United States and certain parts of Europe experiencing a recession during a portion of 2023. While a global recession, which refers to a decline in annual global per capita income, is relatively uncommon due to the faster growth rates of China and emerging markets compared to developed economies, it is important to note that if economic growth lags behind population growth, the world economy is generally regarded as being in a recession.
My primary concern at the moment is finding ways to generate additional revenue during challenging economic times. I cannot afford to witness my savings diminish to nothing.
Exactly! Which is why I appreciate giving a financial advisor the power of decision making. Giving their specialized expertise and education, as well as the fact that each and every one of their skills is centered on harnessing risks for its asymmetrical potential and controlling it as a buffer against certain unfavorable developments, it’s practically impossible for them to underperform. I have made over $1.5millions working with John Desmond Heppolette, for more than five years.
Thanks for the information! He really seem to know this stuff. I found his web-page when I made a google search of his full names, read through his resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. I left him a note and booked a call session with him..
To succeed the financial market, you must review and put into consideration the dynamics of your assets prior investing. Analysis based on research is vital which is why I recommend investing with a financial advisor if you don’t know the basics.
It's 2024 and no recession yet
This was without doubt one of the most fascinating and informative interviews ive seen in some time.
Everyone remembers their first Peter Zeihan lecture
Yes the most awful and wrong analysis. Look up Nathan Rich on Zeihan to understand Zeihan.
Wishful thinking, it seems Zeihan has it backwards. I've looked at Chinese census data, and if anything, they are finding it's better than expected, for example China just "discovered" 12 million extra children born between 2000 and 2010, most of whom were girls. Why? One child policy made them HIDE their extra girl children so they can try again for a boy. Zeihan's odd 100 million overcounting claim is such that he is saying people had girls, reported their births, then killed them. Uhhh, no. While yes many Chinese did abort their girls, they did it before they reported them as births (either aborted during pregnancy or infanticide usually right after birth and finding out it wasn't a boy, sadly, I've seen abandoned baby girl carcases thrown in the refuse in China like it was just garbage, quite traumatizing to see). They don't keep the girl, report it to the government and keep it for a while, they'd get attached. They almost always get rid of it immediately, before they can get attached. No woman is going to breastfeed a baby they intend to murder and they didn't have formula back then. What DID happen is many mothers HID the births of their first girl or first boy even, so they could have their first son or even a second child.
So China's demography actually is better than expected, in 2016 after the one child policy was lifted, demographers began discovering that there were anywhere from 30 million to 60 million hidden girls in China born from 1980 to 2010, which is good news for China. There is no way of knowing the true number of how many millions of girls went missing unless they get discovered or self-report as many of them have lived for decades using false identities (i.e. borrowing a sibling or cousin's ID whenever they need ID, living with another identity, living offgrid, etc.). I personally know of a few Chinese who have mislead society/govt on their birth origins.
Also, Zeihan is clearly wrong about which countries are the worst fertility rates. The worst country in the world is South Korea who has a fertility rate of 0.8, which is about 1/3rd of the replacement rate, they are shrinking by 2/3rds in the next 30-40 years.
What Zeihan said about China is actually more applicable to South Korea. In 20 years, South Korea's military will shrink by 2/3rds. Meanwhile North Korea more than double the birth rate and is actively trying to increase their birth rate (now that they know they could beat South Korea in 25 to 40 years if they just increase their birth rate).
So while Japan and South Korea implode (and ripple effects hit the West ontop of Europe's decline), America itself is not one of the best demographics, if you remove the importation of foreigners (and it's debatable whether a 400 million United States of Mexico in 2050 will be as effective as a 250 million America of the 1990's, you can't just replace the entire population and culture and expect that entity to be just as efficient and stable).
Already, the mass importation of H1B workers is causing hugely destabilizing effects in the USA, one of which is about to be felt in real estate. San Francisco/Silicon Valley are starting to see home prices decline over 20% in the past 2 months as IT sector started layoffs, and there is a real question if the millions of H1B's, for example Indians, less than 20% of whom had citizenship back in 2008, now over 60% of them have gotten citizenship, are they going to stick around in a 8.5% inflation USA with 2% GDP growth? Or head back to India which has 7.0% inflation and 7.3% growth, yes you read that right. India has less inflation than America. What a joke America is now! I remember many of my indian friends one of their complaints about India when moving to America was how it's economy was unstable with high inflation, but now India has less inflation and more growth/stability than the American economy.
So if America lays off 2 million Indian IT workers during a recession, now that they have citizenship they have no reason to stick around and be jobless during an economic slowdown in the USA, when they could take their millions back to India's booming economy and live like kings. The fewer millions who were here in 2008 did not have citizenship yet so they toughed out the storm in order to get citizenship. Same is true of other H1B and other economic migrants. If things here get worse than 2008 levels, then even Illegals may go back to Mexico if the jobs dry up here which would in turn cause rental vacancies to skyrocket. It could be a domino effect. So imagine millions of houses spilling onto the market.
Importing tens of millions of people who are economic migrants with no loyalty to the nation, and who could easily return home (they are not slaves, and most have family in their home countries they'd like to go back to see) is a recipe for disaster if we face another Great Recession worse than 2008 (even if it doesn't reach Great Depression levels, if it does, then we're screwed). There can be a domino effect. If a million Indian H1B workers leave, they leave 1 million houses on the market, collapsing real estate dramatically (even 1% of American houses spilling on the market at the same time can lead to a 50% decline in home values if there isn't enough demand). Add onto that fact that many people in houses or apartments may move back in with their parents at a rate never seen before in history, and then if that domino gets too out of hand even the hired help/illegals may decide to bail (and then free up millions of apartments and rental homes, causing rents to plummet). And since most of America's wealth is tied up in their real estate values, it's basically game over for the USA.
Meanwhile, in China, if demographics is such a problem, 2 years ago they implemented 3 child policy, and this past year they lifted all population restrictions. Next step will be possibly incentives, but China has noted that incentives didn't work in the west, so they may actually start taxing/punishing unmarried, childless adults. They banned video games except for 1 hour on Saturdays, and then banned boy bands and other male models to masculinize their society and remove unrealistic expectations of women in who they mate with. And now some Chinese provincial governments are starting to mandate attendance at dating events for unmarried young adults. China can deal with this problem because it's not subject to voter backlash like the USA is. It can just mandate away feminism and mandate marriage and births.
This is why mainstream media collapsing and good podcast shows are the old television as knowledge
@@fool9111z Nathan Rich is a CCP shill.
Damn, I knew the population situation in China was really bad...
... but I had somehow managed to forget rule number 1: always multiply by "worst case scenario to account for unreliable data".
The more secretive they are about the data, the more you should suspect the worst, or even worse than that.
It's even worse in Europe, but not in a raw numbers sense. It's really about who is having kids, and it's...um...not people native to Europe.
@@taylorc2542 It makes no difference to the sustainability of European economies whether they are "native to Europe" or not (if anything, migrant workers tend to be more productive than natives). But if your concern is more "cultural" than anything else (i.e. filtered though a prism of more or less racist assumptions and prejudices), then I suppose it matters quite a lot.
It does make a difference, just ask Ukraine. Russian immigrants who immigrated during Soviet times have now risen up and taken quarter of the country with the help of their home country.
Russians didn't become Ukrainian and nor will non Europeans become European.
@@vampireducks1622 You got a source on that claim that says migrant workers are more productive ?
Immigration can be a net economic benefit, if its controlled over time. Where you can pick Iranian nuclear scientists which is more productive than average native. But is it comparable to the millions of migrants, with little to no secondary education, dont know the language of which they migrate ? Have to spend alot of money for them to even be productive.
Which also is true with natives, but I dont see how you can say they are productive.
I am skeptical. In Europe after the plague decimated the population we got the renaissance. There was more wealth per person. China may benefit from a smaller population.
Yeah but the plague killed off the elderly, China's going to be majority elderly people which is something else entirely. It will put a huge burden on the few young people so how will they be able to benefit from it?
Plague to renaissance was 200 years though
Here's china's problem. The primary way the country makes money is by making everyone's stuff. A "good" work schedule for the average Chinaman is 6 12's, meaning 6 12 hour days. Well when HALF of the country is retired the only way to pump out more manufacturing goods is either to get more efficient or hire more people. Theoretically they're already efficient AND working their people to the bone BUT they're not having kids. It's obscenely expensive to live in China and every woman remembers how they were treated by the one child policy.
Having a small population works well for countries like Japan because they make their money by innovating new technology. China is going to have to get used to the thought of making half of their GDP because they'll only have half their labor pool they have now.
Except that they only wanted boys. Severe shortage of women and with modernization, they aren't in any hurry to marry.
The fertility rate remained high during the plague. The problem is low fertility, not reduced population
Peter is spot on about Western Australia 'not having soil in the way we think of the term'. This is the most fascinating (and frightening) interview I've listened to in ages. Thank you.
What is the soil like then?
So how come WA exports so much grain? Another bumper crop this year.
@@UpliftedCapybara i think it's just sand. i live there and basically every is just sand lol. that being said it's a massive state i might be wrong in some areas maybe there is good soil. western australia is geologically very old, so for reasons ive forgotten means we don't have fertile soil.
@@shamicentertainment1262 We have to add trace elements. Farmland all over the world gets fertilized.
Perth's coastal plain is mostly sand, but east of the escarpment it is different. More clay in it.
No what he’s talking about is the need for phosphate fertilizer in WA. It’s not that WA doesn’t have soil per se, it’s more that it’s phosphate hungry, and phosphate is in very short supply at present. As to the nature of WA soils, on the coastal plains, they are very sandy but there are generally better loams inland, however the sandy soils with increased humus and organic matter have become incredibly productive. WA’s agricultural production, especially grains has gone through the stratosphere in recent decades from around 7 million tonnes in the 1980’s to over 25 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to minimum till techniques conserving soil moisture and greatly improving soil structures, and far better weed control from glyphosate and post emergent selective weedicide chemicals.
Peter Drucker predicted the demographic challenge faced by China in 1988.
Well, it’s pretty easy to know that when a nation limits the amount of children you can have and the majority of babies that were born were males, your population will collapse later down the road.
As a Canadian, who has been seeing a steadily increasing influx for decades now of Chinese investment and investors looking for ways to get their wealth out of the Chinese system, as well as exit strategies for themselves, I have an idea where some of the missing 100 million people may have gone. Real estate markets in major Canadian cities have been significantly affected by this phenomenon, and even in smaller cities on the prairies properties can be found which were purchased purely as investments and have been left empty. I’ve heard a number of horror stories about owners who apparently didn’t understand that you can’t just shut off all utilities to a home in Canada for several months when you take a trip back to China. Many branches of major Canadian banks, even on the prairies, make a point now of always having at least one teller on duty who speaks Mandarin.
It's fascinating that for decades we've been told that population growth would lead to the downfall of countries and even the planet. Now it looks like what's going to take out major powers will be population decline
Population shrinkage isn't a decline. Unless you are a capitalist who wants to gobble up the earth's resources at an ever faster and faster rate.
The Bible knows. Ittl go down like the mouse eutopia experiment.
Not really, if the population decline is steady. It is fine. To build a strong modern military, it is not population but money and cashflow.
I don’t feel bad for the Chinese government they killed millions of girls and now the very thing they wanted to get rid of they realize they need for the survival of the entire country. They made their bed they need to lie in it!
nonsensical theory, almost all rural chinese family have 2-3 children. Years back, most rural chinese families don't actually report their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th child.
Never heard of this guy before. Gonna have to listen to the rest of the interview later. The upsidedown demographics in industrialized nations is already a well established phenomena. Turns out population growth isn't gonna be a problem so much as finding ways to motivate successful young adults to have families.
And more specifically successful young women.
@@AUniqueHandleName444 successful young women and childless aren't mutually exclusive.
And Americans wanting to work for 65 yrs. Like my children and my father working in a coal mine.
@@doomedbook1020 No, but there is a inverse relationship between income levels and number of children for women. And high income levels are also a negative predictor for long term marital success for women as well.
@@pmmw8468 not sure what you mean. Do you mean that working till you're 65 is a problem for industrialized nations?
Chinese seniors do not have a social safety net to fall back on. Every couple is supporting their elderly parents on both side--the husband's and the wife's.
Land for agriculture in China have been reduced due to uncontrolled pollution. One has to even question the health safety of any Chinese agricultural product.
Only 1.4 billion people left. 😂
China produces more corn than the USA.
It's nowhere near as bad as you seem to think. I live in China, and China produces massive amounts of food, it even exports a lot, and the pollution/rubbish problems have been greatly Improved in only a few short years. Things can still be improved a lot of course, but food here tends to be cheaper and better than my own native country of New Zealand.
No consumable product in China is safe
"One has to even question the health safety of any Chinese agricultural product"
IMHO
"One has to even question the health safety of any Chinese product"
Overcounted by 100 million people, 2/3 probably would have been girls (who may have been drown in buckets in rural areas so the parents could try again for a son). Populations collapsed more dramatically during the Medieval Black Death, weakening the ruling class warlords and strengthening a merchant class that led to the Renaissance. What will our Renaissance moment be?
Except the black death affected the entire world, every society become drastically different, so its gonna be less Western Renaissance, more American Indian style civilizational collapse
How billion people how many billion and all the Indians starving to death?????????
to the black plague succeded a tremendous economic growth, ressources were plentyful , land was avalable , it happened all over Europe. So maybe some countries will have population collapse, but it might be followed by a new population growth, because who will be left, will have everything at their disposal. We should all do like Japan, buckle up , not try to compensate by population replacement, protect our civilizations. It'll be a transitory crisis.
@@RegalBeagle1776 exactly! This right now is the enlightenment and our future is a long Dark Age.
Rainbow sidewalks
The irony is he mentioned New Zealand and yet it’s missing of the map behind him 🤣🇳🇿
Also in top 20 countries with the most population percentage in only one city (2019 a third of population)... so not so spread out.
Yes, that fantastically accurate map.
The map is also irritating me and I am not very good at geography.
Also means that 2/3rds of the population is very spread out. But it seems to me that much of the population increase is immigration, and Auckland is heading to 1/3 Asian, 1/3 Pacific Islander/Maori, and 1/3rd European.
Why cant China re establish a balanced economy after reducing to 600 to 800 million population? Regardless of timeframe. Handling the elderly, retirement and health systems would be a challenge but achievable with a common goal. Problems create opportunities.
Bcoz working population at that stage will be less than 100 million
The agriculture thing is terrifying, especially considering someone is going around and burning down food processing plants.
Can you say manufactured crisis?
Is that a reference to Ukraine Russia? Or where are they being burned?
@@xidaq4998 It's happening all over, but seems that China is getting the brunt of the damage. I believe the issue is the same all over. Standards are lowered to keep food prices competitive. This includes safety devices such as fire suppression systems, not repairing barely functioning equipment and no safety training such as fire drills.
@@orlock20 freaking sad man.
If China can shrink its population enough, the Chinese may well become self-sufficient in food.
The thing this guy didn’t mention regarding France is it’s not the native ethnic French population that’s growing. The native French population is contracting as dramatically as the Japanese and Koreans. I expect that the newer expanding group will challenge the native French for control of pockets of that country within a decade or 2 that could lead to major social unrest and upheaval that will jeopardise the viability of the EU.
The blacks will take over France !
@@joekerr9036 It’s not really the Africans, it’s the Berbers and Arabs of North Africa and the Middle East mainly that are growing at a high birth rate. Shari’a will come to Paris. It’s already in the northern suburbs.
They’ll cause as much disruption as Irish/Italian immigrants to the USA a century ago.
@@sirmount2636 It will be far greater. It could lead to civil war.
@@wattlebough LOL
I refuse to accept that less people as 'terrifying'. It'll be different, but different economics is not something to be afraid of. It will never lead to zero, that's ludicrous.
I keep saying it will change some societies and cause people to move and intermingle. The human race will just adjust in the same way it has before through out history.
Look up the universe 25 experiment... it leads to 0
@@TheEggroll4321 Modelling? Like COVID modelling or climate modelling? You can only believe it could lead to zero if you ignore anything that humans are or what they do.
I agree. It means a different economy. More technology, less people to feed. Higher wages and GDP.
A few months ago I found this guy in youtube and I was impressed by his "predictions".
As time went by it became clear that none of his catastrophic visions (supported by "very serious reports and research") were even close to reality,
FInally I got to one conclusion that has become a very accurate rule ever since: If Peter Zeihan says it, then believe the opposite and you'll get to the truth
what Peter Zeihan says makes a lot of sense to me. If he was just making predictions without any valid reasons, it would be another story. Let me make sure that you understand that predicting the future isn't easy, but if you're using actual data, analyzing it very well, then your predictions may more likely to happen than not. There's nothing easier than being a critic. I think we should nominate you to be the person who breaks all predictions without having to explain why a lot of predictions aren't going to happen. Instead of data, you can use gut feelings. I think that'd be a very interesting channel.
@@JS-vl5gd no sir.
I ignore many subjects, and that is the reason why I do not dare to predict catastrophes everywhere without at least taking the time to reason why what I predicted did not happen at all. Not even close.
I decline your invitation (or command?) and leave that task to people like yourself, who seem to be very in tune with that kind of wisdom.
Have a nice day .
But that method also makes no sense (if Zeihan says it…it’s not gonna happen). First, there is an old saying that even a broken clock is right twice a day.
And second, we all know that we can’t see the future…all predictions have a poor track record.
But at least for China’s demographic decline… the evidence is pretty solid. Virtually no other society has created a true inverted pyramid like China, and while that may not lead to “collapse” - it is pretty clear it will be a huge challenge.
My friend just told me about this. I just can’t believe that. Its insane.
It actually makes sense. Abortions, young people getting married later, women avoiding pregnancy via contraception- this has consequences
@@BlueBobbinthose are such minor factors, apart from having later marriages. But even that comes down to the massively higher cost of living today, couples cannot afford to raise a child.
He's wrong about New Zealand. The cost of living is through the roof. There is no work outside the cities. No one or very few live outside the cities. There's a shortage of housing. Young people are leaving in droves as there are better opportunities overseas. We have an aging population as well. Things are not rosy here for many people.
Who would have guessed that Chad pops out the most kids per capita…
😄😄😄😄
@@chriswatson1698 lol do you think they just got by hearsay or sumin?
@@Rosskles In western countries, there are bureaucracies that keep track of people. I doubt that many of the countries in Africa have the institutions that require accurate demographic data.
@@chriswatson1698 Gotcha, see your point now.
It’s cuz he’s a Chad 😂
I'm Nigerian living in Nigeria what he says about sub Saharan African countries having importation problems is true
South Africa just dumped tonnes of oranges because of a disagreement with the EU, they're creating these problems on purpose because of EU made a silly new law about temperature in storage
I remember when Rhodesia was the bread basket of sub Saharan Africa and an exporter.
@@kieranh2005 that is sounding suspiciously like heresy old man
@@kieranh2005 it's called Zimbabwe.
I took some college courses here in America back around 2013 2014 and was in a class with a couple of Chinese students also studying. They spoke English very well and we’re very friendly and in a conversation I had with them I brought up the subject of China’s, “one child only“ policy and they were pretty quiet but I said, “that means there’s no brothers, no sisters, no cousins, no nieces, no nephews, no aunts, and no uncles. That isn’t a normal human society.” I went on to tell them that I’m the seventh child of a family of nine children and they were astonished. But concerning my comments about the policy, The girl was very sweet but spewed out the propaganda she was taught that there’s just too many people in China. The dude was much more honest he didn’t like it either, and he said, “if you’re rich enough in China you can have more than one child.“ he knew it was messed up. It’s scary how much this policy has damaged that country. Really terrible. Shocking.
Even more damaging would have been NO one child policy. The draconian methods were probably not necessary, but the Chinese would be like Africa is now, but far worse off, without population control.
2 things. First, thank you for this great interview Chris. Also, I love seeing the progression in your channel. You have quickly moved up my "must listen" list. You're up there with Rogan, Fridman, Ferriss for me now. Keep up the great work. Very interesting stuff.
yh, there's more i want to listen to :)
I’m not sure long form interviews like this that only present one viewpoint are terribly informative for people who aren’t already familiar with the specific discipline/field being discussed. Especially not when the subject speaks so confidently, making it seem as if their analysis is simply objective fact. It can lead viewers who aren’t familiar with counter-narratives and associated evidence to draw the wrong conclusions.
@@lorrie1397I don't agree. Like his voice and speech
. nod his progression n unique guests ovrtime= a dlght ^
Yeah Chris is very level headed
I'm glad you made this clip. It's nice to have something to show to when I explain to people that the current view on the world is a bit shallow.
I work in China as a college lecturer. My students are all about themselves for their future plans. I am not sure if they will grow out of it.
It's a scary proposition for China.
I wonder what Peter thinks of America's society and the way it's imploding from the inside out... The corrupt perpetuaion of the system and how it's completely unstoppable
America is rome 2.0
The US is totally self-sufficient in food and, if the government gets out of the way, self-sufficient in energy in less than a year. We're about as safe a country as there has ever been. Neither Mexico nor Canada is a threat to us. Yes, the Canadians burned down the White House, but that was back in 1812 and we've pretty well forgiven them for that. Mexico tried and we wound up getting almost half of what was Mexico for our own. Much more profitable working with us than against us. The other two sides have huge moats on them protected by a navy that could take on the combined navies of the rest of the world several times over. No one is invading us here in the states. It's been 80 years since anyone has tried and all they got were a few Aleutian islands for a few months before we got around to kicking them off. There were territories we got from the Spanish-American war that Japan took and we had to take back, but nothing else on our home soil. Our demographics are not an inverted pyramid. More like a chimney. Not great, but not bad. We have great ports and more navigable inland waterways plus the intercostals, than any other country in the world and it's ten times cheaper to ship by boat or barge than rail (of which we also have an excellent system) or trucks (which drive on a really good interstate system). Only about 15% of our economy is engaged in any sort of direct foreign trade and half of that is with Mexico and Canada. We just aren't as geographically, structurally, or economically exposed to the same hazards as almost all of the rest of the developed and developing world is.
Not saying we don't have problems. We do. Lots of them. But not existential ones like having your population shrinking every year with the average ages going up and up. We're going to be dealing with a labor shortage, at least for a while, but I think we can handle the scale that we're looking at here.
What happens when a population ages? Once someone hits retirement, they're gone, overnight. They are no longer working and paying taxes and contributing anything. Instead, they start drawing pensions and Social Security and Medicare. They take all their investments and move them to super safe assets so capital availability dries up. Their years of experience are simply gone. Almost nowhere are there enough people in the generations behind them to fill their shoes.
In some countries, like Russia, where they gave up on education, the generations coming up aren't really even halfway trained to take the jobs of those close to retiring. Not to mention the huge brain drain it's been going through in the last six months and especially in the last week or so. They're heavy in the contingent of the very few (primarily tech workers) who were qualified and filling important roles that no one else is educationally capable of taking over. That loss may well be worse for them in the longer term than what they're going though simply by being cut off of many goods by the sanctions. The multinationals that have pulled out have taken their expertise with them as well. The Russian technicians who worked with them may know that this valve got turned and then that one, but not know why or when to do it.
Even in the rest of the world though, there aren't as many young people buying cars and homes and paying for education and raising a family. So who buys the consumer goods that are being manufactured? You can't sell it in your own country because you don't have enough consumers anymore and almost all the other countries you try to sell to are in the same boat. If you can't sell it, you can't make it. If you can't make it, then the businesses start closing. Your economy shrinks.
Japan was the first developed country to hit this wall. They didn't have a Baby Boomer generation. Their "lost decade" has now lasted for more than three decades. With many fewer working age people, they automated the heck out of everything they could. They built factories in the places where they sell their goods and where there are still workers. There's a dozen or more countries ready to hit that wall in the next decade or so. Japan got there first. It's going to be a lot harder for the rest, even if they are a big enough economy to have the money to try to do the automation and production moves and many, if not most of them, aren't big enough to try.
America has lasted for 250 yrs, been through a civil war, two world wars, industrial age, information age, the Constitution still stands. As long as the Constitution stands, our ocean moats intact and our soil fertile, we will always prosper.
@@robbenvanpersie1562 Rome lasted 500 years. Thats nothing to scoff at and Rome was too large for its own good during a time when internet connectivity wasn’t a thing.
@@pugilist102 your beloved nation has illegally invaded, done dozens of coups, backed extremists, sanctioned, bombed and threatened dozens more.seeing as it's immune from condemnation, reparations, or even a fair trial in international courts to address it's exceptionalism. One day the fight will come to your homeland and that will be a massive dose of karma. If infighting doesn't bring down your democracy (it's already captured and declining fast) then it's weakening dollar, unipolar shift and growing district and dislike of your nation will render it a side note in history.
Read Bobby Kennedys Anthony faucci to understand how corrupt, and foul America has become.
Some American people are fantastic and hardworking folk but are drowned out by the dipshit uneducated uncultured self righteous maniacs that govern your sick nation,
Keep up the content man, great volley of conversation. You are well on your way to the top
I have traveled all over China. They do not grow rice. They grow wheat. Everywhere there is wheat. Also, there is no grass, only food crops. Every spot of land, food crops are grown.
I just found your channel by accident. I’ve already forwarded this interview to all my family. I’m subscribed and eager to see more! Thank you.
The Comedy Channel
Having Peter on your episode will boost your subscriptions. I subscribed after viewing your channel. ... and gave you a well deserved like.
What is the confidence rating and what is the rate of decline. How have these figures being calculated. How do different models compare.
Yeah that's really amazing, an algorithm where no variables ever vary.
Bro when he said the Chinese population will drop to 650 million my stomach dropped, that's insane. I would rather have a wealthy China than a poor China w/nukes
Why would China become poor just because they have less people? When America only had 50 million it was still a wealthy prosperous country. Endless growth is impossible so at some point the population needs to decrease to something more sustainable and stable
@@Montezuma0 the problem is that if they keep having more old people then young the economi will collaps that could mean war and a lot of suffering wich in turn makes the population growth worse.
It will propabley be stable again some day but in the mean time it will be brutal for china and probably the world.
@@sabelotoda2 Short term it’s bad but long term it’s more sustainable. You can’t just have unlimited population growth forever. It’s impossible. Better to decrease the population to something more sustainable and then keep the birth rate stable
@@Montezuma0 the idesl is too have a stable population you do that by having a birth rate of 2.1 so that the population dose not shrink but dose not gorw either.
That how i took the first coment in the short ther the conditions could get sooo bad that it could lead too nuclear war.
In the best sanatio they would have a 2.1 birth rate alredy but they dont have it and who knows how much time will pass before they change it.
There is something you need to take into consideration in the gender imbalance.
1. Materialistic mindset in many women. They want to leverage their beauty for a potential "high value " suitor. For some women it is annual salary and net worth that is set at a minimum number.
2. Independent mindset to want their own money from a career instead of wanting to start a family.
3. Waste of time 16 to 35 are prime child bearing years, but it is spent working to aquire material gain.
I’ve followed China’s agriculture, manufacturing and military projection capabilities for some time, and everything he’s said checks out with what I’ve read. I still can’t sign on with his “China will collapse in ten years” claim, but his data seems in order
Yes. Life will always finds a way, even in “CCP” China. I can’t believe that he said they would be below 700,000,000 people within 20 years? That’s insane.
China *will* collapse.
Yup. He puts the absolute worst case scenario as his analysis.
Cant believe data from communist countries. Math doesnt lie, but people do!
@@kenmasters2025 cilckbait.
relying on population growth for financial growth is flawed economic theory as it leads to a runaway population effect.
The face at 0.48...thats beyond wild!! 😄
I wondered where my anxiety went. Found it by the end of this video.
New Zealand, France & US. Laughs in Australian
According to an estimate by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the average age of the population in 2020 was 44.7 years. By 2050, it is estimated that about one-quarter of the population will be over 65 years old.
Similarly to other parts of the world, aging in China will also result in challenges for the healthcare system and the economy. It is important that China takes measures to address the impacts of aging, including promoting health and well-being in old age, supporting older people in work, and promoting innovative solutions for caring for and supporting older people.
Unfortunately that's a rosier prediction then most leading experts. And that's in a 25 year context.
By 2100 China's population is expected to be around 580 million people... unsustainable for a country China's size.
new zealand has leveraged off its clean and green reputation for a long time but the reality in terms of loss of tree canopy, loss of soils, pollution and water quality paints a very different picture.
Eco-signaling ?
Remember that as temperatures rise, rice growing becomes difficult (rice can't self fertilize, grain is poor in quality). This is affecting rice agriculture in many places, including China).
The unknown factor here that’s not discussed is the rise of AI and robot labor
Robot labor put you out of work. Now you’re broke.
@@rayhill5767 what if the robot allows me to stay in the house as a pet while the AI goes to work
Fantastic analysis! Reasonable, measured, thoughtful. Something you don't see much with analysts trying to drive a talking point. Sure, there is a talking point, but he has it backed up... very little conjecture. Look forward to seeing the rest.
at 9:27 he says it's difficult getting good information from China - except this guy of course
at 12:00 he says that China will have a food collapse - if only you could, instead of starving, say, import food from countries such as Russia or Ukraine. Plenty of countries already do that, and I imagine China has more purchasing power than many of the other food importers. But his conclusion is that China needs to invade India, Vietnam, etc. 12:30 Taiwan and Japan could go nuclear in a month so that just leaves Russia (which presumably can not go nuclear in a month) - sounds totally moronic to me.
Also, the argument that you need space to grow your population... Palestine is doing a good job of growing their population and population density despite very little land
@ bravado7
It always boggles my mind when people also say Africa is overpopulated.
@@mikecarlton9000 People say the dumbest things.
Also, maps are not really accurate in that if you want to turn a ball into a cylinder, you need to shrink locations in the middle (Africa) and expand places on the end (Greenland, Russia, and Antarctica)
Africa is the second largest continent in the world. It also has the second largest population in the world.
@@mikecarlton9000it is all relative to the food supply. Did you ever see the Sam Kinison skit about people living in the middle of the desert?
Never underestimate how easily unchecked government can destroy a civilization.
This happened back in the early 2000s. China has been lying about their population size i remember reading stuff online back then that was skeptical that China actually had over 1 billion people living in it and im willing to be they probably never did or if they did it was for maybe a handful of years before they declined and have been lying about it in order to keep investors intrested in China
Look at Biden.
So Chinese population is collapsing and, at the same time China doesn't have enough food. It seems that less population is good in that scenario, especially when one considers that farming doesn't require much human labour anymore.
But farming does require tools and machinery which run on some sort of fuel or are reliant on some infrastructure. Which means workers are needed to prodice fueal and to build and maintain the infrastructure. But the population problem, specifically, is that there aren't enough births which means there will be less and less young people to work those jobs.
*While Zeihan is largely correct about China's demographics, he got a lot of basic facts really wrong (and I stopped counting at @**1:40**).*
1) Mao had nothing at all to do with the 1-child policy; he died in 1976, the policy was launched in 1980.
2) Mao actually urged families in the 1950s to have loads of kids; Mao believed China would out-man the West (you can still find posters with that message from the time).
3) Chinese started having fewer kids - on their own - due to the famines of the 1950s that Mao's Great Leap Forward caused.
4) The 1-child policy came out in 1980; the 2-child policy came out later (not before as Zeihan claimed) in 2016.
*Point being, the guy rattled off 4 talking points...and every single one was wrong. That doesn't mean his analysis is wrong per se, but it does mean he's either sloppy or ill-informed.*
He just makes up stuff
Literally has zero effect on the demographics.
@@chasethehorizonx _Literally has zero effect on the demographics._ If a pundit came out talking about US politics today but then referred to the US as a former colony of Portugal, a former monarchy, a homogeneous ethnic population, and backwards technologically, you or I would be taken aback because he was so blatantly wrong about those aspects. Naturally, we'd wonder about the pundit's credentials.
Ignorantia veritatis est periculosa.
If someone says something with enough confidence it must be true
@@nathannguyen09 And it works on zombies. Especially on those who believe authorities and are ideologically blinded. That's the beauty of propaganda...
Yep l'd rather stay in New Zealand 🇳🇿 thankyou, best place in the world !
Does anyone remember the Gipper? and his warning.
The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, "I"m from the Government and I'm here to help."
Sadly some people do seem destined to have to learn that one...the hard way.
@@RegalBeagle1776 Amen to that.
Citing campaign slogans?
I always disliked those nine words of his. The government that governs the best is the government that governs the most equitably and intelligently. (Norway is the country that comes to mind.) NOT necessarily the government that governs the least. (Haiti is an awful example of this.)
@@somersetdc So did I. Simple words for the simple minds he was appealing to.
I remember Reagan declared ketchup a vegetable ( boy, am I full) to comply with the school lunch program.
This actually sounds like really good news to me. Losing population isn't a bad thing when you are as severely overpopulated like our planet is. America has much less than 650 million and is very strong economically.
This doesn't lead to zero population. If they make China a nice country people will want to live there and people will move there if China wants more people.
[ America ]...................."is very strong economically". Here, pee in the cup.
My depression era family members had 7-8 children.
The next two generations only had three children.
The next two generations have one or zero children.
The future is bleak at best.
One of the most informative interviews I´ve seen in years - and I follow Pinker, Harari, Shermer and more closely!
Should also follow Joe rogan and you have the hole package 👊
Have a great weekend!
I hope the good honest people of China make it through whatever challenges may come from the future... not just China, but the world!
What about the rest of them?
I also hope they can shake the horror of authoritarianism.
Whenever I hear somebody say, “for sure”, I’m skeptical.
I wouldn't say terminal The Roman Empire continued even after loosing 40% of the population for centuries. Those were terrible centuries, as we all know, but it continued.
Yes, but the Romans weren't so interdependent.
@@JLee-rt6ve Once Europe lost the Egyptian bread basket with the Arab Conquest of 641AD things went majorly down hill, and this on top of the Plague of Justinian over the previous century that killed 1/3rd of the European population, starting the Dark Ages.
Pretty much true. Japan stared having economic problems as its population shrank in workers and grew with respect. Young people work, have kids, buy houses, cars and TV’s not old people. America has been marching down the same path where few workers are supporting more people. Capitalism needs growth or it dies because commerce needs new customers.
I wonder what would happen, if China were afflicted with a highly communicable disease whose lethality profile skewed greatly towards ending the elderly?
Like covid?
@@adamdean5881 Shhh! You're not supposed to say that!
You're especially not allowed to speculate whether an over-zealous Chinese laboratory decided that they could provide a solution to one of their country's most pressing strategic problems. And whether they got some schmucks from America to fund it.
After all, when have the Chinese ever had cruel and ruthless policies regarding demographic management?
It was so apparent that they manufactured this bat flu to eliminate the burdens on their socialist economy.
@@jimluebke3869 lab leak theory is part of the gaslighting story.
@@jimluebke3869 Thats a nice little conspiracy you've got there, too bad it doesn't hold water. China takes insane measures, more so than any other country on earth, to prevent the spread of covid (which kinda kills your tinfoil hat idea pretty quickly). China doesn't play games with Covid and will shut down cities for weeks when a case is confirmed. In general, they have an aggressive and authoritarian approach towards upholding a "Zero-Covid" policy. But yeah go ahead and pretend that you've figured it all out and some scary media force is trying to silence you. Kinda ironic that you're here saying something that you say you're not allowed to say lol, actual victim mentality.
Great interview! I've been saying this about China for the last 10-15 years, they sealed their own fate.
A never heard you saying it. Speak up a bit louder spam brain.
I don't really care about china that much, I mean, good ruck to the chinese people in the coming century but whatever, what I'm more disturbed by is how every single thing we buy these days is made in china. We had better start building up some factories right now so when china can't build anything anymore we still have that chance.
sound slike wishfull thinking to me, a typical misinfomed american view.
I think Peter is interesting but he has quite literally predicted the collapse of every country that is not in North America 😂
People in China are homeless, unemployed, strung out on Fentanyl, again ?
He’s been saying Chinas gonna collapse in the next decade since the early 2000’s. He’s a grifter
@@andys5803he has no written material before 2011, and there is no internet presence that I’m aware of before the year year 2018, where did you see him say that china will collapse in the 2000’s?
@@mitchelgreen891 Mixed my dates up or I I can't find the original articles I saw, sorry it's been a while. But the first article in which he detailed his "China will collapse in 10 years" from a quick google search was on Jan 22, 2010! He says "I would say we expect the economic collapse of China in this decade...this region is so populous and so poor...China simply lacks the resources to cope."
@@andys5803 yeah I read that article, I’d say he said that as an attention grabbing headline, but some of the other predictions were spot on, such as the us pulling out of Afghanistan and Iraq, or Russia invading its neighbors, particularly the former Soviet states, also the rise of Mexico economically, with it struggling with cartels. Some were not as spot on, he said Iran would be pacified and Egypt would be a rising power.
The end of the article says that ultimately the 2010s won’t be a decisive decade, but one where demographics will start to become a driving force in the global economy, which I’d say is pretty much accurate.
Very well done interview sir. Thank you for the education.
That country cannot shrink fast enough
The one child policy was required as part of the "favored nation trading partner" status for a trade treaty from 1972. Outcome was known.
Chris's absolute shocked expression as he hears Peter Zeihan's numbers is all of us watching with our mouths open, unable to utter a single word.
This is happening in the Western world too. Only a bit slower.
What? lol speak for yourself
@@dingleberry4234 Perhaps it's time to grow a sense of humor?...
Its pretty obvious if you are only have one child per family and the majority are boys. You just don't have enough wombs to grow people. Its obvious the missing baby girls increases the decline radically.
Very interesting and informative. Thank you.
Congrats China! You managed your goal of halving the population! We've been on about the dangers of overpopulation since I have living memory (I'm in my 50s) and finally someone's plan has come to fruition. Congrats on China's success!
It's the young-old balance that's the danger, though, I believe.
@@finosuilleabhain7781 Well yes.
The main issue is the population replacement rate.
'Are there enough of the younger generation to replace and support the retiring generation?'
So yes, the old-young balance is a part of that, but not limited to that.
Another issue is the male - female balance.
Nations historically with high single lonely men populations tend to go to war.
We also have a demographic collapse looming.
Then you must have believed those twats. Population collapse is the one thing that will destroy China. NIgeria will beat it in pop
@@eatinsomtin9984 I didn't realise it was about pop.
@@UltimatePowa In the 1960s it was commonplace for 1 worker/taxpayer to support himself and three, four or more, other people. 1 worker to 1 retiree sounds very generous.
Why does Peter Zeihan keep saying that Mao conceived of the one child policy, when Mao was quite pro-natalist and the policy only began in the late 1970s AFTER Mao had died?
I prey Peter is on target with China's population decline, the COMMMIES of China must not spread 😵😵😵
Don't let details get in the way of good clickbait.
Mao was a nut job. He starved tens of millions of his people, like Stalin. But, around 1970, the decision was made that to reduce the poverty in China they had to cut population in half. At the time they were about 1.2 billion. So, they are on target.
Great information, it really changes my understanding perception of social changes based on advancement and social polices.
"The chinese system collapses this decade for sure"...Gotta say- that is a pretty bold statement.
I thought by "this decade" he meant the 2050's which he had just mentioned. Didn't he say that decade or earlier if other things go wrong?
@@sdagoth3037 I don't know. He talked about the 30s and the 50s and then we had a pause. I've heard him say they collapse this decade before too. He means by 2030 the U.S is the only true super power.
@@sdagoth3037 no he's said before he means the 2020s. apparently this year we will see massive food shortages in the 3rd and 4th quarter, which affect hundreds of millions. so wont have to wait too long before we see if he is right about a whole lot of different areas.
This moron's being saying this exact phrase for a decade *already*. He's been wrong in just about every prediction he's done.
Zeihan is a hack, and is such a geographic determinist he's also convinced Argentina is destined to be the main power in South America because of the River Plate.
@@shamicentertainment1262 dude they have 200+ million people over 60. That number will grow disproportionately to the restof the pop each year
If this came out 3 months ago, it won’t have taken into account the dramatic recent death toll of the Covid pandemic, plus the fact that there have been no births recorded officially in China in 10 months. Additionally, the rate of infertility in men has decreased by 1% per year due to the effects of plastics worldwide. Really good video.
In general since Covid kills the old at a much greater rate it would help the worker to retirement ratio but speed up the overall drop.
The dramatic death toll from a 'pandemic?' China loses millions from pneumonia every year. 2020 was no different. Not due to a magic fairy dust 'virus.' All cause mortality didn't change in 2020.
@@lachlanbrown409 you think Covid is Fairy dust?
No births in China?
@@Mishkafofer I thought it was extreme, but that was said to be official. You can’t believe anything really, but the Chinese don’t want to have babies it seems
The other problem is that Chinese people usually retire early at 50, but on the plus side, the culture has a history of respecting and taking good care of the elderly with many young people living with the elderly.
Which is also contributing to the low birth rate
the problem is that after the one child policy, a young married couple would have 4 elderly parents to care for , and 8 grandparents if all are yet living.
I did enjoy that, I will clink the link to the full version, and I have subscribed! Appreciated the content, you seemed to ask poignant, directed questions, and your guest was wonderfully articulate. Thanks! First time caller, AND never listed before, but if more of your content is the same, I look forward to be a subscriber - Cheers (AND shared!)
All I can say is, I thank God that there are probably 20 clean well stocked grocery stores within 5 miles of my home plus 4 clean hospitals and the excellent infrastructure to get me to all of them. Americans count your blessings, these blessing could end overnight.
Whoa ok this is shocking. I'm getting on that full episode now, thanks Chris.
@@haroldfarquad6886 Pretty mind-blowing. As much as I might not like the idea of China becoming the world superpower, if the country collapses there will be a lot of suffering worldwide.
Another TH-camr said that China has some of the most fertile land in the world combined with a favorable climate, which allows for the of production two harvests a year, which in large part accounts for their population. Now I don't know what to think.
yeah, this is still all speculation timing a collapse of society
Zeihan is kind of wrong here. China has great agricultural land in terms of climate, for sure, but it's producing food for a billion plus people. They need massive amounts of fertilizer to support that level of production. It's more just a matter of being unable to accept any drop in output.
@@AUniqueHandleName444 they can & do supply more than enough food for their own people, but they can choose which groups to feed and which ones to starve. They even have more stockpile to last a year and a half compared to what America has, which is around 4 months in case of a war. The average Chinese own gold, most westerners do not. Most Asian countries rely heavily on China for a lot of produce they can't grow and China hoards half the world's grain. Unless you've been to Asia to see how much China really controls other countries economically and agricultural, then you will be shocked how just naive most westerners are on the real situation. China even owns hundreds of thousand acres of farmland in the USA, Australia & Canada. That food grown in their properties is either sold to Americans or they can choose not to plant to starve westerners out. Why on earth would they tell you what cards they have if they want to win as the next superpower? I'd fein weakness & poverty than flaunt in order not to get robbed or attacked. Look at the USA stealing oil & gold in the gulf in the guise of good intentions, destroying those countries that have resources in the process. Frankly, most of the world is sick of the USA for hegemony so I'm willing to bet that more countries would rather back Rus & China than the West when pushed to choose. These 2 countries have better things to offer and don't meddle in the running of their governments than the USA which only pushes their woke agendas on their cultures via politicking.
that is not the future. ( that is only valid in AFRICA )
AFRICA IS THE FUTURE. china rented acres on acres of farm land in Africa.
CHINA cities sits low on the continental shelf like most major cities outside Africa: if the sea rises. Africa will be the only ARK.
The north Heimphere will go through rapid destructive climate change because of a strange vortex regarding Earth's rotation. = This is why USA, European countries and China = all northern hem. had NO WATER in their rivers.
---------- this is why EU politicans are freaking out about climate change and about winter. Russia cut oil when the north will face some of the coldest winter in a generation.
if winter dont get them, then its drought and wildfires or rolling waves of salt water into their farm lands
Well you also need the people to farm….remember farmers have larger families…
Good show thank you, very informative.
What frightens me the most as our interview is going on here I was researching the guest’s claims on china from population to soil and lol it’s all verified by reputable reporting including chinas own report after 40 years. Mind blowing data in a clip. Well Done gentleman.
Brilliant expositiom. Left me breathless.
Peter is so intelligent. I could listen to his knowledge for hours. I would love his information specifically on the U.S.
Why is he not walking in the woods somewhere?
This guy comes off so matter-of-fact with his predictions and doesn't seem to venture any counterarguments as to why he might be wrong or offer any sources for the listener to research on their own. Maybe a side effect of the medium. But, captivating sound bite so I guess I'll be listening to the full interview and checking out his books and career 😩😩
Zeihan is known as a sensationalist by speaking with certainty on subjects with a lot of uncertainties.
Demographic science is a field with many scholars and much published literature. Do your homework, skeptic...
Wow...he covered much more ground, more objectively, than so many other "sources." Thank you!
He's a huckster spewing nonsense with a straight face and total confidence... but that doesn't make it correct.
12:30 Taiwan and Japan could go nuclear in a month so that just leaves Russia (which presumably can NOT go nuclear in a month) - sounds totally idiotic to me.
And he doesn't seem to understand that you can import food from other countries.
@@bravado7 OK, my takeaway on the Taiwan-Japan statement was that they would ready self-defense resources, and among those, invoke military agreements with allies.
With regard to food export/import, I would point to the hampering currently in the Russia/Ukraine conflict where Russia is blockading Ukrainian grain exports upon which other nations are depending and which produces income for Ukraine (which right now could be marshaled for equipment and artillery to fight off Russian forces).
Of course not everything he's surmising is correct, he can't actually know the future. It's comes down to historical clues and pattern analysis in these matters.
@@EyeSeeThruYou He literally said at 12:30 that Taiwan and Japan could go nuclear in a month so that just leaves Russia [which presumably, unlike Taiwan and Japan, can not go nuclear in a month] - pretty dumb, I know.
Ukraine is getting tons of aid for free from other countries such as the US but more money is always good I guess.
Russia tried to pull out of the grain deal but Turkey stepped up and personally guaranteed the safety of the Ukraine grain ships. Either Erdogan is a stand up guy or he really needs that grain as Turkey's inflation is above 85% and his political survival is at risk.
My sincere question to people like Peter and his followers is this: why are you so concerned about what is happening in China? Why are you not concerned about all the social issues plaguing the U.S. such as homelessness, illegal border crossings, drug/opiad crisis, mass shootings, high healthcare cost, etc.? There are so many social issues right here in the U.S. but yet you choose to ignore them and instead focus your attention on attacking China. That is the aim of your channel and your followers. Why so much hatred toward a country that has not invaded your land and people?
Everyone talk about or talk bad the winners.. they are selectively blind to own faults... worst of all, none of them has been to China... maybe it doesn't matter because their aim is to bad mouth regardless .
In a worst case scenario yes it is just possible that China’s population could fall to 650 million by 2050 by some estimates. Where there is consensus is that China’s population has already started to decline or is about to and the decline is likely to accelerate in the coming decades.
The UN’s estimates on China, even the recently revised ones are almost certainly wrong. They start from a base that’s too high, estimate a peak that is 7 years too late…still, and use fertility rates that are about 25% too high. China already has less than 1.3 billion people, they likely already peaked last year and their fertility rate will be below 1 in a few years and stay there for a long time. The next 20 years are going to be very ugly in China.
I think you mean 2100. China's population will be the same by 2035. So, how in 15 years will it lose half it's population? By 2100, China will have solved their population issue.
I believe the Chinese government is extremely scared of Covid. The Chinese government is so scared of Covid that it is willing to kill its economy and imprison whole cities in order to "fight" the virus. The reason why Covid is so scary to the Chinese government is because it is very dangerous to those over 50 years old. The Chinese government is a bunch of old people. The average age of the Chinese Communist member is 70 years old. There are only about 24 million Chinese Communist members under 35. Covid could wipe out the Communist government.
And most of those 650 Will be old
I thought the consenses for awhile now had been that they're on track to over take us as the largest gdp in the world by like 2040, and that they have more skilled workers.
This was so excellent! (thumbs up/subscribed and bookmarked) ... which is something I very rarely do. Keep up the good work please :)
The main problem with dropping birth rates in American Europe is the education and liberation of women that's the main problem
Not education, indoctrination
He’s right about China’s decline in population probably by 2040-45.
Chirs's face at 0:49 is priceless!
The future of fAfrica is definitely the brightest in the world, at this point. Natural resources, sustainable population growth, and the interest of the 1%.
Thanks for the video, really shines the light on the world around me.
I'd love to see videos of people reacting to Peter Zeihan's commentary :) Just about everything he says about China boggles the mind. I get a lot more out of these interviews with him than just from his own videos, because of the questions people ask.
I'd like to say he's overplaying it but rumors of China's real function and or lack of function have been in play for decades and have always run really close to what he is saying and have hit most marks sooner than were assumed at the time.
So....maybe?
Search for "Peter zeihan and Nathan Rich" and you'll find nathan Rich reacting to Zeihan's videos.
@@thecustodian1023 Zeihen pushes it with how he phrases his arguments, but I think that's a function of his consulting work and trying to grab people's attention when he's giving a keynote. The more people in the West learn about what is and has been going on in China (especially since the pandemic) the more of them come around to his general view of things. I once double-checked his population numbers on China, and they're pretty much in line with what the UN is reporting (I think it's UNESCO?).
Please have Mr Zeihan come back and talk about globalization and agriculture.
This is why they're pushing the Belt & Road Initiative... 😬😬😬
Its part of it, but its more of a insurance policy for the general decline of their country as a whole.
They need to shore up their export markets
There are a few variables that were not spoke of. No 1, machines are going to be doing most of the work in the next 10 years in an industrial nation like chine. No. 2 china is a communist country and can make their population do what they want. That being said a lot of good points were made, but there is always the wild card variable that we can not see coming. Great discussion!!
Watched a video on the US’s landscape and it’s almost unfair how much of an advantage the US has geographically over every other country.
I’ve been harping on this for years and I discuss it on my small channel. China, as a society is in free fall.
How’s the whyte population in America looking?😅
@@hellbythedashboardlight1730 * the world
This guy is fantastic at weddings and other festive activities ..
We've spent decades cutting taxes, charging 1/10th the tariffs they charge,, going into debt, to bolster their jobs, buy their goods and build their economy in hopes they'd eventually reciprocate.
All the while we never thought to consider the long-term ramifications of "one child".
Whoops.