Myths & Claims of the Russia-Ukraine War - Claims, Feints, and Bioweapons
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ค. 2024
- In the chaos of the Ukrainian information war, we've seen all sorts of outlandish (and some credible) claims surface regarding the war and its progress.
For weeks, the most requested topic from my Patrons and coming in by email to look at some of those claims, ranging from the wacky to the reasonable, and to cast a critical eye on the way the war has been covered in its first four months.
At their request, I'm going to have a look at some of the various claims that have come up, and put forward comments on some of the most pervasive ones (especially those that were nominated multiple times). Because I'm trying to cover a lot of ground, don't expect the same level of deep-dive detail as normal, but hopefully we can have some fun with it.
Sources & Notes:
Reporting on the age of Russian volunteers on short term contracts:
bbc.global.ssl.fastly.net/rus...
Coverage by Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces including observations regarding stress and equipment of Ukrainian TDF in the Donbass
• The Battle for Donbass
WHO confirmation on biolab Pathogen destruction order
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Russian leadership changes and firings (these are just a sample):
- / 1540475582173126656
-english.pravda.ru/news/russia...
-www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pu...
Sponsor:
I'm incredibly lucky to have a returning sponsor, Ground News.
Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Be well informed. Download the free Ground News app at:
www.ground.news/perun
Patreon:
/ perunau
Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- Mythbusting the Russia-Ukraine War
00:00:35 -- What Am I Covering
00:02:34 -- Sponsor Segment - GROUND NEWS
00:03:55 -- The Crazy & Conspiracies
00:04:06 -- The Crazy & Conspiracies: The Biolabs
00:05:43 -- The Crazy & Conspiracies: The Biolabs - The "evidence"
00:08:19 -- The Crazy & Conspiracies: The Biolabs - The Genius plan
00:10:23 -- The Crazy & Conspiracies: Nato Special Forces in Ukraine
00:12:09 -- Economics: German Aid
00:14:30 -- Economics: all of the Ukrainian economy is in the Donbass
00:18:10 -- Battlefield matters
00:18:16 -- Battlefield matters: "Cannon fodder" and casualties
00:21:40 -- Battlefield matters: Aces and super heroes
00:23:48 -- Battlefield matters: Media Coverage
00:23:58 -- Battlefield matters: "Game changers"
00:27:19 -- Battlefield matters: Every day is change?
00:28:52 -- All according to plan?
00:29:29 -- All according to plan - Russian war aims
00:30:32 -- All according to plan - Assessing the goal
00:31:54 -- All according to plan - Kyiv was a feint?
00:33:44 -- All according to plan - The Donbass is a feint?
00:34:35 -- All according to plan - The war is a feint?
00:39:33 -- All according to plan - A Bad Plan
00:42:05 -- All according to plan - Is the war going according to plan
00:47:13 -- All according to plan - Just look at the map
00:50:40 -- All according to plan - The Narrative
00:54:12 -- What Am I Saying?
00:56:55 -- Expectations
00:59:16 -- Conclusion
01:00:41 -- Channel update
Caveats and corrections:
At one point I refer to German aid 'per capita' rather than 'as a share of GDP'
I also refer to US WW2 dead figures without clarifying that the cited figure is 'combat' deaths.
A special thanks to all of those Patrons and supports who submitted myths and claims for consideration and examination - I relied heavily on their submissions in deciding which ones were worth looking at today.
I'd also like to say a tribute to my poor, long suffering Microphone. This is the last episode it will be used for before being replaced by a new arrival due mid-week. Cheers old Microphone, you've brought us all nothing but the finest echoes and reverb.
Thanks also to returning sponsor Ground News:
Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. ground.news/perun
Thank you for your effort, your unprecedented, high quality content with so much research going into it. You are awesome! Greetings from austria! 🙏
Re: Cannibalism. They're right but not because of starvation but just because we're tiring of hiding our true nature from each other and it's time to chow down!
What is especially dumb in "Slav-targeting-virus" is that actually sizable population on West including US, ARE Slavs! Hell, something like 20% of Canadians are ethnic Slavs. Not to mention populations in UK, Germany and Poland.
On another note. Considering abominably low standard of Russian Space Ops such as VDV, what commonly incorporate conscripts. It is quite possible to assume that Russians without any training outside pealing potatoes, may consider Regulars as Space Ops.
Mostly you are better off ignoring disinformation and simply putting out the truth,
and killing a lot of moscow flies.
When one repeats the liar's b.s. intending to refute them that almost always perpetuates the lies. Truth can stand on its own. Truth is a bullet.
As a Brit, I would just like to say that the stories of cannibalism are greatly exaggerated. The consumption of human flesh is only occurring in a few isolated areas, and even then it involves a small minority of the population.
i wouldn’t eat a Britt. Full of Mad Cow
I blame Essex for this rumour myself.
I think it is living up to the historical standard of British cuisine.
I have never done cannibalism before, but if its the only way we can get rid of Boris I'll take one of his legs.
All the human flesh near me has gone already.
Today I was so desperate, I was, uh.....it makes my stomach turn just thinking about it.....I ate.....a McDonalds.
"I'm certainly not an intelligence agency" sounds exactly like the kind of thing an operative would say.
Don't you know?! Anyone who isn't trumpeting the inevitable glorious victory of Russian courage and mercy over the cruel West is a CIA/FBI/Mossad plant! Whose policy (for some reason) is to destroy the West (i.e. themselves)!
You'll never convince a conspiracy theorist; the conspiracy goes all the way down.
@@JohnSmith-gd2fg the funny thing about conspiracy theories is that actual conspiracies exist.
Until then it’s a conspiracy theory and obviously false and brought on by some mental handicap. No possible level of legitimacy until I guess maybe Fox News and CNN start talking about it…
Perun is the entirety of the CIA, confirmed.
I thought they ordered their drinks in a peculiar fashion.
Waterloo was a feint. The goal was always to get a vacation on St Helena.
N1
Dude, that "Kyiv feint" commentary was so spot on. Today, I encountered some guy in another comment section who basically started listing off the arguments line by line. He literally argued that the reason the Russians used their elite troops to attack Kyiv was that they needed to "sell it" properly, otherwise the enemy wouldn´t buy it. Then he called me a "Western layman" when I explained that is not how "feints" work. These people are beyond saving at this point.
a very solid strategy in fencing is sacrificing the entirety of your left arm. once your opponent has lopped off a limb, not only are you lighter, but people around you will see how dedicated you are to winning, thus guaranteeing victory.
The human commenters of Alex Mercouis videos are my favorite. Unfortunately, I can't help but argue with them sometimes. My favorite claim that I heard this week was that "The BBC estimated that Russia has only lost 4,000 soldiers, so I'll go with that."
He didn't mention that number was from July, from confirmed obituaries only, and not at all an accurate estimate even by conservative standards.
A feint will only work if you fully commit to it! Otherwise the enemy won't be tricked into thinking you fully committed to it.
A feint only works if you fully commit and take all of France
Well like it or not a contingent of Russian troops too small to ever successfully attack of the capital managed to keep 60,000 Wehrmacht troops held up north for over a month that prevented them from decisively stopping the southern actions. They gave it a couple weeks fighting and then slipped away in a fighting retreat to deploy again.
The idea that the _entire_ UK is on the brink of cannibalism is absurd. It's actually just the fens, and they've been practising it on outsiders for generations.
Idk. . . The Tories have seemed pretty cannibalistic since Thatcher.
Normal for Norfolk as the saying goes
Do not take it too seriously. It was only a modest proposal by Russians.
@@AB8511 OK thats subtle and hilarious.
I knew British food was bad, but not this bad!
Brandolini's law; the amount of effort required to debunk bullshit is an order of magnitude more than required to create it in the first place.
Fighting bullshit is asymmetrical warfare and the odds are stacked against you.
It still needs to be done
yea, but some bullshit is so obvious, it shouldn't need debunking
@@jurgnobs1308 I've had people call me a paid shill because I was using objective evidence.
@@isuckatusernames4297 some people are absolute idiots, and you won't ever convince them
@@jurgnobs1308 It's easier to fool someone than it is to convince someone he has been fooled.
In the category of "Perun videos that have aged like fine wine", this one ranks highly.
Barbarossa was a feint.
Imagine if Japan was like " the battle of Midway was just a faint. Everything is going to plan"
"It doesn't matter that 4 fleet carrriers were sunk, everything is going according to plan"
@@scarwing2492 that's what they wanted the emperor and IJA to think
Actually, that was what they did.
Given how brainwashed they were and honestly still are, I would not be surprised in the slightest if they did that.
It was. Japan hid the sinking of their carriers for a few years from both the public and the army. They actually exiled the surviving crews to far away posts too.
I think the migratory avian concept is best described as birdshit rather than batshit.
The Australian government may want to talk to you about that.
Obviously.
@@JamesBTurner93 There is a horse virus that caused by bat/flying foxes shit spread to horse diet, then human handlers! If it mutates enough, we may go batty over it!
Wait … aren’t bats just flying rodents? And, hantavirus is from mouse shit. They were going to have bats dive bombing hantavirus on the Russians.
Indeed, but bird shit usually doesn't drive people insane. Bat shit does, at least for brief periods.
How come an Australian TH-camr predominantly running a gaming channel is able to churn out these kinds of high quality, high value analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? It outshines with a mile any "professional" analysis made in any other media. The scourge of clickbaits and rapid news cycles have made any such possibilities impossible. No wonder that the MSM is slowly withering away.
Yea it's damn sad. Was just a about to write a post to this effect. Any news outlet should be foaming at the mouth to hire him. But they probably aren't.... sigh.
You won't like the answer. Don't watch MSM.
@@crhu319 I wouldn't say that. It's important to stay informed. You just have to be able to read some things between the lines and discard other stuff. "Critical consumption". Heck I even follow the Russian news outlets. Great source of info (and a laugh) with the right lenses on 🙃
Well maybe because he has a real job and it includes reading and analyzing ton of pretty secret defence papers and he is really passionate about it. Hes not military as he claims but i bet my hat that he is somebody who writes memos for top brass in down under.
@@KK-xz4rk I don't think he writes memos for top brass. My reading oh his job is that it probably involves procurement/auditing/contracts and logistics. Probably in the Department of Defence and he probably knows ASDEFCON back to front.
52:09 "If the Russians were only trying to take Bakhmut and cutting the whole area off, then that would be a horrific failure for the Russians."
I cannot believe how well this aged
I cannot believe how well this is still aging.
This aged like milk lol
Another three months later. Premium dry aged i‘d say
@@ddd_martin59 Well I think very soon it will cease to be aging quite so well as it looks increasingly likely that Russia will switch from trying to take Bakhmut to getting the fuck out of Bakhmut.
Woah, this Guy cant predict the Future. Very surprising
"Just look at the map"
Well, if one looks at a map of Napoleon in Russia in 1812, one could say Napoleon was winning. Obviously that didn't work out.
Tbf Napoleon was winning. People tend to view that outcome as a complete inevitability but it reeeally didn't look like it at the time.. not to the zsar or anyone else watching. People also tend to downplay concurrent events across the rest of Europe.
Russia today seems to have learned the lesson of Kutuzov of which is to maintain a threat to the enemy army without letting them destroy you in a decisive action. And then there is Ukraine who is psychotic insistence on holding onto every scrap of territory is costing them horrendously. Like Napoleon, Ukraine is making the mistake of thinking elan is the everything of warfare. Even with the backing of Europe as Napoleon had Ukraine is going to wear itself out against the Russians.
Well, Napoleon was minning the fighting, but losing at the supplying. This does not show on a map.
Wouldn't it be wonderful to get this level of analysis from the mainstream media? Great work as usual.
It wouldn't sell :(
Wake up, sleeping bird. You live in informational era. And information is the key to control: divide and conquer. Fill the brains with media noise instead of infromation.
You're in twenty-first century, damn it. Time to wake up.
We don’t need the mainstream media, they don’t work for us.
They don't have an hour. They only have 5 minutes to grab the attention of viewers who don't really care about the subject.
@@Yora21 wait if they dont care dosent that mean they dont watch the tv news channels ?? i trough if you watch by definition you care and stuff like this is what any one who watches the news will wanna see about the subject
I'm a history buff, so I always shake my head at the 'look at the map' stuff.
- The Hundred Years War, England occupied large chunks of France before ultimately being pushed out.
- Napoleonic Wars: France occupied Moscow along with all or most of Spain, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Prussia, and Italy. France ultimately lost.
- Revolutionary War: UK at various times occupied Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Charleston, etc before ultimately losing.
- WWI: Most of the fighting in Europe took place on Russian, Belgium, or French soil. Germany even threatened the outskirts of Paris, but they eventually lost.
- WWII Germany: The Nazis controlled most of Europe and battled up to the outskirts of Moscow before ultimately being defeated.
- WWII Japan: Japan occupied portions or all of present day China, Korea, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Australia, USA, Vietnam, etc before ultimately losing.
There are tons of others throughout history as I just chose some of the most recent or major examples. Taking land in and of itself is not the key measure of victory.
those maps are fun to look at though
Correct your a scholar 👩🏫
Heck even in the modern context.
The US/NATO defeated the Taliban in Afghanistan and the US/SEATO maintained the territorial integrity of South Vietnam, but holding onto the territory with a corrupting (if not outright corrupt) government caused a morale and economic drain on the US/NATO/SEATO that caused them to lose. Taliban rule in Afghanistan again (though it’s questionable if they’ll maintain it) and Vietnam was united by the North.
Same for the Soviets in Afghanistan too, they held the entire country but lost due to multiple factors within the conflict and outside of it.
Same goes for the Daesh (ISIS). At their greatest extent (2014) they controlled a third of Iraq and Syria, but they couldn’t maintain the hold against the international coalition that faced them. They gained vast swaths of territory because of corruption and ineptitude within Iraq and the civil war in Syria. Yet as soon as they became more violent and genocidal they alienated and pissed off enough people that they lost.
@@nicholaswilson6602 Papua New Guinea, which I realized as I'm typing that it's not actually present day Australia. At the time it was governed from Australia though.
@UTubeFekUrself I almost included Hannibal v Rome as an example, before deciding to cut down on my examples. Regarding Ottomans vs Vienna, th-cam.com/video/rcYhYO02f98/w-d-xo.html
The discussion about the overall western framing makes me realise how incredible the successful defence of Kiev and area around it actually was. While yes, Russia made a lot of stupid mistakes, that doesn’t take away the incredible efforts Ukraine pulled off.
It’s not at all given that a nation can just cut off supply colonies when fighting against so much bigger and more resourceful enemy, who were already on the suburbs of the capital, before western help really had even begun to arrive.
That doesn’t really mean anything for the conditions today, as it’s different battle fought with different gear and different units in a different way. But it still was an incredible feat that is easily forgotten behind Russias changing military goals and failures.
Ye I agree. I worked near Kandahar in a hospital and it was manly Gun shot wounds and ieds. Later I worked in Libya we were surrounded getting pounded by artillery and Grad rockets. While Uk were going well early. It’s now an artillery war. We had the shit kicked out of us. A dare say that Ukrainian casualties are much higher than Russian casualties atm. Not sure why everyone is so upbeat. I have they get the weapons they need to turn the tide .
Just saying it's Kyiv if you want to be respectful to ukranians. Kyiv is the ukranian spelling kiev is Russian. Officialy it's been Kyiv since like 2018.
@@wom_Bat So, Kiev was Kiev for 1000 years and was Russian and now Kyiv for 4 last years and Ukrainian? Well, so many trends around - people just cant catch them all.
@@lolnoobus Kyiv was ukranian fighting the Mongols while Moscow and Novgorod were bending over and letting the Mongols have their way. Ukranians developed a distinct culture fighting mongols and the Crimean khanate. Then they further drifted from Russia durring the Polish Ludhianian Commonwealth ocupation.
By the time they were occupied by the Russian empire they had about 400 years cut off from muscovy with little in common. They were treated horribly in the empire and durring the Soviet Union. Ukranians are a very distinct group. Would you like me to link you a documentary on their rich distinct history? It's very interesting you might learn something.
@@wom_Bat Are you sure about this? Wikipedia said that Kiev was pilaged by Mongols twice. And Novgorod not.
So, well, they was bended over and Mongols have their way with them. Not if this was someshing special for Kiev. I mean, Oleg of Novgorod, Vladimir of Novgorod, e.t.c e.t.c. (Same is true for many medieval sities btw)
But who cares? It is not me, who writed that Kiev was Kiev until in 2018 ukrainians decided to rebrand the city.
Ok. Tomorrow they decide to renamed it is as a New Mexico in order to became closer to civilization or whatever. Good for them. But not all who cant catch all trends in the web it is russian military personal in the miidle of special military operation, ok?
The "superhero" portion touches on a factor that often gets overlooked in war, just left as a foot note. Morale. Morale is incredibly important to a unit effectiveness, and propaganda can play a huge role in keeping that morale up. I think that's why it took a bit for the Ukrainian government to admit it was multiple pilots. Their capital was under threat and keeping the morale of troops defending outside Kyiv and militia preparing the city for a potential defense and civilians still living within the city was vital. That's, I believe, why Zelensky made a big deal about staying in Kyiv. I guess what I'm saying is that there is a place for superheroes in war if for nothing else than morale boosting propaganda.
Morale also compels the retired school teacher to pick up a weapon, instead of flee the country
It's like our Chief of Defence, General Kivinen, stated in an interview. "The most important line of defence lies inside our heads".
But here we are 8 months into the conflict, and I haven't found any credible evidence that a single Ukrainian air to air kill has occurred yet. Not only was the ghost of Kyiv not a single pilot, no Ukrainian pilot has scored a kill at all.
@@Oldsmobility98 have you seen any evidence of Russian air to air kills?
Have you also noticed the helicopter usage?
Have you noticed that Byraktar Drones early in the war could score kills, even though such a Drone would be completely vulnerable to Russian attacks UNLESS the Ukrainians are able to severely threaten the Russian aircraft?
Have you looked at the fact that both Russian and Ukrainian pilots fly very very low in order to avoid not just the air defenses, but also each other's aircraft?
What was the point of risking the Moskova as an anti-air vessle against Ukrainians if the Ukrainian airforce isnt a threat?
Since its nigh impossible to differentiate between an air to air kill and a ground to air kill unless you have direct verifiable footage your claim would also mean that Ukrainian AA sites would be ineffective and Russia has complete air dominance, yet its their artillery that takes the front stage while their airstrikes are limited affairs. Also a looooot of pictures of for example the KA attack helicoper (that only Russia has access to and is modern) that seem to have crashed in the Ukraine war. Ofcourse that damage is from the crash and Ukrainians shooting it up afterwards, not from any actual shots beforehand!
@@1dad3kids of which though i dont know if he was a retired school teachers but a old man did take out a russian unit with its armoured vehicles using a grenades launcher
the ultimate goal was always to unite the German armies of the east and of the west on the river Elbe
Norway, France, Africa and Barbarossa were just feints
The Master Plan!!
After what they did at Chernobyl, destroying the pathogens was ABSOLUTELY the right thing to do before Russian troops started freaking sniffing the stuff to figure out what it was. And highly pathogenic H5N1 traveled all over Eurasia in migratory birds despite wiping out whole flocks - so firstly yes we should be monitoring migratory birds, and secondly you can't just plan on those migratory birds staying in Russia because that isn't how they work.
Exactly.
Russians would drink them to see if they get drunk😂
This is the first thing I thought about when this topic came up.
Some bots on Twitter said that birds were genetically engineered by Ukrainians (who are same people as russians) to only attack russian genetics though.)))
@@KasumiRINA maybe they played too much MGA5 and thought there was a virus that attacked certain spoken languages. That's the whole plot of a video game. 🎮
Some people seem to either forget or neglect the fact that Russia was basically already in the Donbas long before the war. It's a lot easier to get close to taking all of the Donbas when you start out already possessing most of it.
Easiest way to become a millionaire is to start with two million.
The republics were independent, dummy.
"Kyiv was a feint" is such massive Russian copium, I can't even
How do you explain it only getting at most 15% of the assault force which was obviously too small?
@@Mortablunt the ruzzians being retarted and high on their imperialistic ambition who ignored the ways Ukraine adapted since 2014?
@@Mortablunt You can attribute it to Russian incompetence. Keep coping.
I am a middle-aged Marine veteran who returned to civilian life 20 years ago. I can confirm that if you gave me a 7 day refresher training then put me back into service, "cannon-fodder" would be a *generous* assessment.
I'd trust those guys to maybe drive trucks or stand watch, but to march and fight or to operate weapons systems? Big ol' nope. Using them as anything except clerks means Russia is severely short on manpower.
It is also quite possible that majority of the russian middle-aged men now "re-enlisting" were never professional soldiers, but rather conscripts.
As a marine veteran, you should search out the Russian version of events. They have some absolutely insane combat footage as well as multiple drone footage of while QCB urban fighting.
I watch both sides very closely to try to keep unbiased. Regardless of what I think of Russia. They are absolutely destroying the Ukrainian military and they have all the footage to prove it as well as nearly 30% of Ukrainian territory. They have pictures of millions of dollars worth of nato weapons, with the former owners lying dead all around. They have video destroying m777.
Like i said i watch both sides, and the Ukrainian reality is beyond sad, and their propaganda is beyond unreal. When the numbers come out of this the people who give their support for this war in Ukraine should feel ashamed. Its a bloodbath, and mostly Ukrainian blood. But as the Azov battalion would say "кров і ґрунт"
@@mikajulin It's almost guaranteed. Now sure, that itself doesn't mean they're going to be poorly re-trained, but it's likely.
I’ve had military training in my teens, but I’m now late middle aged, and though I could probably shoot effectively, I doubt my knees could make me anything other than a liability. It’s pretty clear if the Russians and now using T62s and issuing client forces with Mosin Nagant rifles, and other WW2 kit, the bottom of the barrel is clearly being scraped.
@@mikajulin 🇷🇺 is right now looking @ innovative ways to scrounge together manpower either through incentives, pay packages or otherwise (LNR/DNR) to fill the roles of troops who have been packed off to the frontlines or fill up unit strength of frontline units. All of this without going anywhere near full mobilization is gonna b tough but not impossible. The problems arise when the war drags on for longer say half a year or longer than a year then incentives will have less pull factor and the Federation will seek more push factors to shore up the numbers, that is assuming that there is at least some part of the front that sees heavy action constantly.
In WWII a “feint” involved inflatable tanks sat in a staging area to be seen by spotter aircraft. If the C21st equivalent is throwing your elite troops in first to be massacred then this really is the stupid ages.
That’s more like deception. A feint generally does require movement of forces…but only enough to trick the enemy into defending in the wrong place.
Russia very obviously planned a swift penetration but we’re stopped cold because they suck at many of the core competencies of large scale conflict.
Yes of course the whole WWII was just a "feint," Hitler was just trying to test the worlds reaction until he suddenly died prematurely of natural causes before being able to build his first base on the moon which is made from green cheese. And the newborn babies are delivered via airmail by a storch and I also believe in Santa Claus. Or maybe all that is just a "feint." Brilliant video!
A quibble with that: that's what "feint" meant on the western front. A soviet operational "feint", like the attacks just north of stalingrad in the leadup to Uranus, often involved multiple corps and casualties into the tens of thousands. Not that Kiev WAS a feint, it's pretty clearly evident from many sources what they were trying to do, but if you do consider "feint" in the soviet historical context rather than the western one, it's maybe not quite as laughable an idea.
@@1574me The Russian troops going to Kyiv brought rubber bullets (sotred at Hostomel airport, meant for civilian crowd control), and were told to bring "1 weeks suplly of food, and their parade dresses". That is _NOT_ what a soldiers brings into a combat zone. The Russians were trying to capture Kyiv and believed it would be easy. Until they yelled:
_"I don't need ammunition, I need a ride"_ and retreated.
@@1574me nice soviet propaganda. Operation Mars was the main attack it just failed and when Uranus was successful they moved all the resources to it
More than Crimea 2.0, the plan looks like Czechoslovakia 3.0. 56 years before Crimea, to Soviet troops executed the same kind of operation - rapid advance from staging points along most of the border to seize critical nodes without expectation of heavy fighting while executing a political coup, complete with VDV seizing the airport at the capital to establish an air bridge; and it worked like a charm, because the very militaries Czechoslovakia was to call on for her defense were the ones doing the invading. You will not convince me that they were doing the exact same things this time around to achieve some completely different ends. Once is coincidence, twice happenstance, thrice enemy action.
Apparently in the intervening years they have increasingly refined their torture techniques.
They did similar operation in Afghanistan with Mr Amin
The difference, I'd argue, is that the USSR is well prepared and Putin gambled both times.
USSR amassed >500k personnel and called upon all its allies and staged a surprise attack, against a country with limited prospects of western support, and far less mobilization potential/strategic depth than Ukraine. Putin in 2014 sent a couple thousand men betting that the Ukrainians won't resist (he was right), and in 2022 he sent a larger army again betting the Ukrainians won't resist (he was wrong).
@@user-cj9jk1pd4gI remember the video of a Ukrainian officer in crimea saying “the Americans are with us and they will help us” he was right
How propaganda is presented to the public, and how it is goes through the editing room. Can be a determining factor in how a war is waged.
(((This is more meant to be a what if situation. Don't take it seriously.)))
IF for example evidence was fabricated to show the true suffering of Donbas Russians in 2014 first and foremost. People would throw in with Russia and admonish Ukraine.
It would have been an equivalent to a Russian 911 and possibly justify an invasion. The American public viewing this propaganda at that time would have felt further sympathues for the Ruskies. Purely based on how it is presented.
The high impact would also boost social media ratings. NATO support for Ukraine likely would not exist.
"If everything is going to plan, it was a shit plan", I concur.
Who would, under protest, spend 20 minutes on an in-depth examination of a topic he doesn’t like and thinks has no merit? Only Perun. Thanks again, guy. Awesome video!
Wow. I thought I was the only one to notice this guy full of fart.
And you sat watching it 😂.
He had to rationalize it for himself. He responded to the extreme speculations, those are easy to dismiss.
Now hear me out. I think the Kievan Rus pulled a feint by migrating East, creating Moscow, eventually creating an empire/Russian federation all as a social experiment to see what would happen if they they attacked Ukraine to see how the weaponized birds would react. This was all, of course, a feint within a feint by the Roman Empire. 😂😂😂... Great content, as always. Thank you, sir.
The Roman empire was a feint by the ancient egyptians to see what an empire in europe would be like and they themselves of course were a feint by the apes to see what a hairless evolution of them would look like. they of cousr were a feint by....
The antique Rome's fall was the feint. Cuz look to present day Latin: it's just named English. And we have multiple Romes all around the world. And the entire world-wide empire of Latins - Ænglosphere!
(I am just kidding about the sick English's habbit of infinite cospay on Rome's things and even naming the process of making quite crude and offensive Anglicisings «Romanising»(hi h==> kh))
@@okay2931 ok
Your analysis made me faint!
@Commander Russian Waifu xD
Another important effect of the Kyiv 'feint' is that it woke up the EU. Before the invasion, most people thought Russia would take the Dombass at most, and take 8 more years of rest. However, when the Russian tanks arrived in the outskirts of Kyiv - before the EU had agreed a single sanction -, both politicians and the public realized that we were going far to slow.
Then, the first round of sanctions was approved, countries announced increases in military budgets, people mobilized to take refugees, aid to Ukraine was pumped up, plans were made to ditch Russian exports, etc. etc.
Very reasonable and detailed analysis, very good arguments against the fantastic claims and myths. Thanks for uploading!
Note: We all know the UK have slight problems with cannibalism. In Denmark we have no cannibals, I ate the last one yesterday.
56:55 _"Understanding the war probably demands a _*_sober,_*_ ongoing evaluation of both sides."_ Sober? That excludes Dvornikov
"Just look at the map" is a stupid argument. The "map" of WW1 in 1918 would suggest that Germany was winning as they had taken huge amounts of territory in France, Belgium and Russia.
In reality the German army had bled itself white, the German navy was bottled up, the German economy had almost collapsed and was suffering famine due to the British blockade and the civilian population was on the verge of large scale revolution.
The 'map' of WW2 in 1941-1942 would suggest that the Third Reich would achieve victory over the USSR and that they were making gains in North Africa. It's the same thing with Ukraine. Just because Russia holds 25% of Ukraine does not mean that they are actually winning nor does it mean that the territory held by the Russians are more strategic or whatever.
@@mingQWERTY Though as of now, Russia still holds the initiative
@@Pao234_ The Russian military is severely lacking in initiative so I don't expect them to do much with that advantage
@@jgw9990
The Russians have wayyy more reserves of artillery shells.
That's what's giving them an edge, now.
@Aditya Chavarkar "in a way they did win on the Eastern front"
Reality: lost the war, lost millions of lives, in bankruptcy, lost land, along with many other losses
This guy: "They won in a way..."
Can confirm. We are all eating each other in the UK. Even though all the shelves are full and food prices have barely changed. I can still buy a week's worth of food for the price of a stick of Butter in Russia, but next-door neighbor just tastes so much better!
I mean, you just described Birmingham even before the war so...
When my teacher ask me what i wanted to be went i grow up, i answer i want to be a cannibal, sadly i dont live in a densily populated area, so my options were few
Fava beans and nice Chianti's are getting hard to come by though...those who know will know.
I must admit I do indeed eat va***as 😋
@Aditya Chavarkar Yeah that's true. Housing has been outrageously high for the last 15+ years, especially compared to Australia where you can literally buy a mansion for the cost of a London studio flat in a good area. Gas, petrol, electricity and trains and everything else is terrible and overpriced. Food as well: a Starbucks coffee is now £3 to £4. And so on.
The best propaganda is to take the truth and twist it, and it's true: things are expensive in Britain and people often complain. But it is also true that Britain is a relatively wealthy nation and people are generally doing well without eating each other.
LMFAO THE "ALL ACCORDING TO PLAN MYTH" IS SO HILARIOUS NOW. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Keep up the amazing powerpoints man. Seriously, you always brighten up my Sunday.
March 2022 "Russia is saving the good equipment for later"
May 2023 Russia can only field one T-34 in the victory day parade
ROFL:ROFL:ROFL:ROFL
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I I
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"360 no-scopes the entire army"
Probably the best quote in this whole video
The number of times you say things like "I don't know" or "That information won't be available until after the war" or "I'm not the person to answer that question, I don't have the expertise" adds a lot of credibility to the claims you *are* willing to make. There are far too many commentators who seem to believe they are oracles, blessed by the gods with perfect vision of the future and/or present.
I understand that confidence is a big selling point, but this topic is not the place:
We deal with active history, economics, military warfare from the tactical to the great strategic view, the effects of an information and media "war" And much more. All of this topics ought to be looked at from a scientific perspective, relying on all the data we can possibly gather. This is not the place for bold claims but for rational analysis and discourse so that people can understand this conflict in its depth and make their own decision on who is right, who is wrong, what has to be done and what has to be stopped.
Part of this is to admit own biases and stay honest in front of the data we have.
This channel does a great job in doing so: admitting limitations (seeing the events from Australia), looking and questioning data (for instance when looking at how credible the views of certain individuals and institutions are or using visually confirmed losses as a baseline) and taking the scope of this whole conflict into perspective. This sort of analysis should be the normal thing for modern day journalism (if it claims to be objective) but sadly, it isn't, but it is at least great to see that there are channels, outlets and other groups that at least try to present this conflict as objectively as possible.
Even if Kyiv had been a feint, it would have been an incredibly dumb one for another reason, the western responses to the war might quite possibly have been much less severe( both the sanctions and the material/financial support for Ukraine) if Russia had left Kyiv alone and focused on the Donbass region from the start.
There would most likely still have been a lot of pushback from the west, but there likely wouldn't have been the same sense of urgency to it that you get when there is a direct threat to a country's capital and government.
Plus leaving behind the state of the art Krasukha-4 radar and satellite jammer near Kiev for NATO to pick apart would have been a colossal price to pay.
Exactly. If Putin threw everything at the Donbas from the start, he would have gotten away with it. Instead he tried to go for the whole enchilada.
Oh plz they basically nibbled on Kiev for a few days and left so that the Ukes would be forced to deploy thier forces away from Donbass, and honestly it worked well enough. Russ has gained control of over 25% of Uke land in just 4 months and reopened the water ways to Crimea, giving tens of thousands fresh water for the first time in years.
@@BoleDaPole lol cope harder. Perun just talked about how Ukraine didn't deploy forces away from Donbas and the whole op around Kiev (which lasted 1 month and a half) was a russian military disaster.
@@BoleDaPole Ukrainian forces didn't even move away from the Donbass, they wouldn't have had time to either. It was the Kiev militia beat the Russians like a drum. There was only one unit that could have possibly fought in the Donbass, which was the Ukrainian 72nd Mechanized Brigade, in return the Russians had to tie down their 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 104th Guards Air Assault Regiment, Special Operations Forces, 141th Motorized National Guard Brigade to try and tie down 1 Ukrainian Brigade that wasn't even deployed in Donbass during the invasion. Highly unlikely that the Ukrainians would have deployed the Independent Presidential Regiment to protect the Donbass when you know, the President is in Kyiv.
Joke from Arestovich goes like this: they started with pincers (common word for encirclement from two sides), those were reduced to pliers, then to nail scissors and it seems that soon grand operations will be at a scale of tweezers.
The problem with claiming it was just a feint is that it makes you look even more incompetent. It was costly. It galvanized resistant. And you still could not redirect much from the east. So I totally agree with the statement that if it was according to the plan, it was still a skit plan.
It was more likely a risky gamble - Putin wanted to end the war quickly, by flushing Zelensky out - and then capturing or killing him as he tried to flee to Gostomel.
Unfortunately - but predictably - I think Zelensky realised what the game was and refused to play it, choosing instead to stay at home, because he knew there was nowhere to run.
Had Zelensky fled, I think Ukraine would be effectively part of the Federation by now.
Lol, are you swedish? A skit plan indeed.
@@TaengJr Oh. I did not even notice I switched to Swedish there. But it is Skit indeed. ;)
Problem with this is people, who think only one plan was existed. Donbass is clearly a main goal, as land connection with Crimea too.
Other territorial gains is good too, but this is programm-maximum. RF was launched multiple directions offensive as probes, and exploited most neccesary and well going directons. All this direction takes significant resources for both sides, but they worked as distraction aswell. And when swift cavalry raids stalls, RF choosed where to consolidate forces for more methodic and natural for army kind of tactic.
@@PyromaN93 The problem is that it worked poorly. Ukraine would always have had a fairly large force around Kyiv. They still have troops there. It not like with the Switch of focus Ukraine have moved everything they got to the Donbas area.
The point is either A or B is truth, it still makes Russia out as having done a blunder. Ether the plan was bad, poorly conducted and very costly. Or the plan did not go according to plan and was very costly. A well executed feint would have less cost to it, with a lot less opportunity for Ukraine to gain propaganda points.
Plans do change, however. And we are masters of coming up with justifications after. And yes. You can have multiple goals you aim for with multiple agreeable levels of success. But if you had the plan to take A, B and C. But you accept a victory only taking one of the points. Then, if you find the resolution acceptable and only look A. You still failed to deliver on your original full plan on taking A, B and C.
Now, that is a bit of a moot point so far. Since there is no resolution to the conflict. Different parties have different degrees of acceptable resolutions. And this might shift. Right now, finding some sort of resolution seem very far off. I feel many in Ukraine will not give up until they have taken back Donbas and even Crimere at this point. And before, a lot of them may have seen Crimere as a lost cause. But that might shift. Some losses and loss of support, and that might change. Or maybe they will have some victories and get even more hopeful for the prospect of winning. While Russia might loose it support for the War. We do not know. It is hard to tell. All we know is that thing has not gone great for Russia or Ukraine for that matter. But no one expect this would be easy for Ukraine. But we have also seen a large unification again Russian and massive support for Ukraine. Neutral countries have to start picking sides. And it does not seem like the fighting spirt is dying down yet.
Personally, I think Russia have already lost. I am not saying however Russia have lost the war in Ukraine. But I think that even if they win the war with Ukraine, this will be at tops a pyrrhic victory. That this will set back Russia's economy so greatly that whatever gains they do it will not offset the costs. That time that Russia had to fully exploit their oil and gas reserves are now evaporating quickly and the west (finally) start to transition away from fossil fuels.
I saw someone recently trying to argue Occams Razor, i.e. (from Wikipedia) about the subject of Russia attacking civilian facilities in Ukraine, that it wasn't Russia, it was Ukraine doing it to make Russia look bad.
Because obviously, in the middle of an unprovoked war of aggression, the country being invaded, subject to daily attacks on the things necessary for a modern country to operate, likes schools, hospitals, residential buildings, factories, food storage, transport facilities, and so on, instead of expending the limited military resources at hand to combat the invader, are instead going to destroy the facilities they need themselves in order make the country that is already the subject of international opprobrium look worse????
This is as nuts as the argument of Putin: 'My opponents in politics are being poisoned with bizarre substances / assassinated, in order to make me look bad.'
There is bat shit crazy, there is plain stupid, there are people who really have no idea what Occam's Razor means, and there are those paid to disseminate disinformation on social media, to add to the noise. I think this one was the last, managing all the other 3 at the same time!
These people are russian paid trolls as well as useful ones (I can’t type the right word starting with an ‘i’ as TH-cam will censor my post). They do operate for real and are introducing huge amounts of confusion worldwide
True words👍
Since the adults are talking, I'll just stay out.
@@gregchapman2646 You are delusional, buddy! Did you fall on your head as a child? I am so sorry...but please stay out, when adults are talking.
Anyone who tries to use Occams Razor, to justify any argument, should instantly be dismissed. I
It's such a BS theory, solely used by people on the internet who aren't as smart as they think.
My favourite myth and/or prorussian claim is that Zelensky is essentially warmonger who pushes the war further despite Russian best efforts to end it with peace talks (I mean... because he didn't surrender already?)
That is a variation of 'the West by supplying weapons to Ukraine are prolonging the war'...(because by doing so they are stopping Russia from successfuly invading)
Which would be like Nazi Germany saying to the USSR: 'you're only making it worse for yourself by getting supplies from the UK/USA'.
Till last Ukrainian alive. Let's war if we can't have neuclear weapons.
Are you winning son?
He is!! He knows he can't win this war but is still insisting on fighting with russian. To the expense lives of his own people .He let his country be proxy by WEST. Do you think WEST care about Ukrainians? He'll no ! They just care, inflicting wounds to Russia .. That's it!
Well, he trowed Minsk agreements under the bus and bomded his own population for years, so.... I mean, official claim for Russia in this conflict - "UkraNazi shelled Donetsk" - and Ukrainian Army is still shelled Donetsk. (As if they intentially work for Russia narrative).
There is other funny claim from other side - If Ukraine gived some autonomy for Donbass, like language autonomy, it is totally mean that Evil Putin winning and buttraped all Ukraine, fuck Ukrane, all Eastern Europe, no, all Europe, no, Nato, no, Democracy!!!
It's the same thing Japan said of China in 1937, and Germany of Poland 2 years later.
side note about the amount of provided help:
eastern Europe countries do have something that most western Europe countries don't: Russian made hardware that the Ukrainians are trained with... meaning that they can actually gift immediately useful hardware while western equipment need training for... (Ukrainians artillery servants were in France for more or less than a month to train for the Caesar... and the Caesar look in fact pretty easy to use)
most of the heavy western made hardware (that amount to a lot money worth) is not the most useful gift for Ukraine right now... if the war keep going for years, that's a whole other story...
meanwhile, Russian made stuff that the Ukrainian know how to use and is likewise worth much more than light equipment is (was) in stock in eastern Europe...
But if delivered early, it can be used for training more troops to use it. That would help in long run.
@@kilijanek the other problem being: ammo...
western heavy weapons use mostly "intelligent" ammunition that cost a lot and isn't being produced at the same rate as the "dumb ammo used in more rustic weapons...
meaning you also can't waste too many rounds to train more and more soldiers...
meaning, the truth lie in the middle path... a "few" intelligent weapons for "surgical strikes" and massive amount of dumb weapon for the brute firepower used to suppress the enemy...
the west has the intelligent weapon but lack the massive amount of dumb weapons
the Russians have the massive firepower but lack the capabilities of the intelligent weapons...
as it's easier to go back down memory line and get working on dumb weapons, the West does have an advantage but only if we size it...
and this opposition of means isn't limited to Russia... be sure that other powers are taking notes of what's happening
Eastern Europe has the weapons and the ammo...probably the reason why there have been 'suspicious' explosions such as in 2014 the Vrbětice ammunition warehouses explosions, where the pleasant chaps who also visited Salisbury Cathedral to not poison a Russian dissident happened to also inexplicably be passing through at the time.
Kolerick - also, these same Eastern block members are usually very deendent, or landlocked and fully-dependent on RU oil & gas to not freeze during winter and - I think; just an opinion - their governments are scared to openly support UA :( Believe me, I hate this the most (and have personally taken steps that would allow my country to cut RU gas & oil, if it were dependent on me. But it's not. And most families can't afford to make the switch I have). Slava Ukraini :'(
Learning to shoot an artillery system is only one part, which is why the M777's were the first supplied out of the gate in terms of heavy western systems - following the Eastern European supplied former Soviet systems. Even many of the former Soviet systems have been updated so that training is still required in various aspects.
Logistics to supply the ammunition, replacement barrels, spare parts etc is equally, if not more important. I'd argue more important. If only 4 of a system are supplied, then one breaks down due to mechanical failure & no spares, well....
Then let's look at the Cesar, PzH2000, Dana, Zuzana and similar SPG's, they require a lot more maintenance as well as the previously mentioned logistics compared to a field piece. Truck chassis tend to be easier to work on/ maintain/ get spare parts for compared to tracked chassis.
So while the actual gunners will be learning how to fire the systems effectively & can use a lot of prior experience to accelerate that aspect, the drivers & crew need to learn all the quirks about the SPG's to keep them running. Again, there is a lot of cross over training, but at the same time a SPG crew needs to know more about their overall system compared to a regular field arty piece.
It is interesting that the next "big wave" of artillery pieces coming from the west are light L119 105mm field guns. 50 of these are coming via the British and I suspect due to the ease of acquiring numbers, plus the stockpiles of ammunition they have for them.
BUT, what if the dissolution of the Soviet Union was just a feint? The Russians therefore could see who stays on what side and how they aid.
There’s a Simeon’s episode that shows just that
Definetly gotta aprecciate sponsors that don't shy away from content that cover such heavy topics.
And they seem pretty good, too. I checked out the site and I'd buy a subscription if I had money to spare.
@Commander Russian Waifu lol Russian trolls making videos on george Soros isn't exactly the level of discourse we are looking for my simple friend. Nice anime avatar btw...
@@uku4171 they're not. Ironically they are themselves completely biased
Is Duran legit?
It's just a business decision.
Lol a Russian told me he heard that in Germany there were a lot of state sponsored commercials for "candle heaters", because we couldn't heat our homes anymore. He was quite baffled when i told him i didn't even know what a candle heater is and temperatures in Germany hadn't really dropped much under 30°C for two weeks.
Russia was always good at propaganda especially internal.
they've gone completely insane with propaganda!
Isn't Europe in the middle of yet another heat wave?
They are so deep in propaganda they forgot how seasons work lol.
@@VelvanTivius I guess its because most (older) russians Donut speak english, French or German. But also that their written language is so different from the west, I don't speak and can't read russian, so I don't have the faintest idea when i see a Russian headline if it means "Russia is winning" or "Russia is loosing". I think the same goes for Russians in regard of English/German headlines.
If I see a Spanish headline I can at least discern some meaning (I don't speak spanish). If I see Russian written in normal letters it's the same.
When the Ukraine war first broke out, I think a lot of us thought it could be like Ethiopia in 1936… a large nation just totally unprepared for modern war. And if Ukraine went quickly, a lot of eyes were then turned towards Taiwan for the coup de grace. The Ukrainians have certainly exceeded expectations, but the people harping on about the map know that Putin likely would be delighted if he can keep what he has today. It’d be easy for Russia to spin what they’ve already taken as a great victory…
Indeed. If Putin is Mussolini, then Ukraine is Greece, not Ethiopia.
Time... he's waiting for enough time to pass so that the original plan is slowly replaced in the minds of Russians by their media with the new plan of 'just the Donbas'. Which was the plan all along... Russians are also under some sort of illusion that after the war it'll be back to selling oil and gas to Europe as if nothing happened. They actually think those sanctions will be lifted. They must be smoking crack! For hells sake even if Putin and Zelensky went on a picnic after the war it would take the EU 30 years at least to fill in the forms and discuss those sanctions at several thousand meeting s over the course of three decades!
@@mickelodiansurname9578 You can hardly blame Putin for rolling the dice on the Kyiv prong of the assault - they thought they had a chance to outflank the Ukrainians from an unexpected direction in Belarus, they knew Ukraine was deeply entrenched in the Donbas, and if Ukraine's military performed anything like they did in 2014 they might have expected a walkover. Of course it just didn't work out, but that doesn't mean Russia can't spend an indefinite amount of time shelling eastern Ukraine to ruins and advancing WW1 style under mass artillery. If Ukraine doesn't get more capability and soon, their trenches are going to fall and they'll have no means of retaking lost ground. As for EU sanctions, ehhh, we'll see. The EU is useless and bureaucratic... but apparently not when they face an existential threat. Their sanctions may not survive first contact with General Winter.
The Kremlin propaganda machine can spin anything into a victory. Losing Crimea for example could be a "sign of goodwill towards the west" like they recently said after abandoning Snake Island. They can just claim that all N-zis have been eliminated from Ukraine and now that their mission is done, they can go home to their loved ones, and blah, blah blah.
@@jong.7944 Yeltsyn survived as president after the Russian defeat during the first Chechen War, did he not? Putin survived the Georgian war in 2008 following the Russian army's retreat, did he not?
It takes more than a defeat to remove an entrenched, Russian oligarch-backed tyrant from power.
The bio weapon claim is so hilariously stupid. I have a MS in physiology and I've worked in plenty of labs. I could think of so many reasons why it's not just sci-fi, but idiotic sci-fi.
One more additional point Perun didn't directly address: Why the hell would you host a bio weapons program in one of the most corrupt countries?
@@Theo-vn9hm Not only that, but the US has plenty of high-security, advanced labs that would work so much better. Plus your resources are right there, sometimes in the same building. For example, if you're doing PCR, you need primers, and you basically have to order custom made primers. They have to be frozen. Lots of nicer research facilities have someone who makes primers. You order them in the morning and you have them in the afternoon. In the middle of BFE, Ukraine, you'd have to wait a few weeks for your primers to be shipped to you - on ice. Also the enzymes that PCR uses need to be stored at -80C. That's very difficult to ship. And they couldn't just NOT use PCR. It's a basic technique that everyone uses to identify genes. Considering their claim that these "bioweapons" target Russians specifically, you can't get around looking at genes (this claim would get you laughed at by anyone who knows basic genetics). These are the kinds of little details that make it so ridiculous. That's just from my scientific background perspective. I'm glad to hear it from Perun's perspective since he knows so much more about the economic side.
Gold. This is what TH-cam is all about. Thanks for the in-depth analysis you provide mate.
There are no trampolines or dogs in this video, but im thankful for his videos:)
@@paddington1670 nods head
@@paddington1670 As a kiwi, i miss your squirrels. I stayed in Mississauga for a few days. staring at the squirrels in the park like a loon.
@@JGold-cu5mo The best part about them and our raccoons is how chonk they are. They just look like big balls of fur with legs.
I truly like the British (well… Australian) understated humor: “three days to Kyiv turned into ninety days to Severodonetsk”
🤓👍
Who said 3 days to Kiev?
He a special kind of dry sarcasm that cracks me up.
@@wom_Bat I’ve noticed the same humour with a few people I’ve listened to in my life. I think it’s sarcasm mixed with well-informed intellect.
@@tristanpatterson3843 evry Russian propaganda shit-head. And we all know from where they was driven.
Australians dont go around eating their own kind, unlike the Britts
I once heard a comment by a guy on the internet that "the narrative of the war was moving faster than the war itself" that still holds true today.
It warmed the cockles of my heart when you mentioned that Hugh Dowding, the INVENTOR of the world's first strategic air force command, was sacked for political reasons even though he was doing a bang up job. One of the (few) shame-shames that belongs on Churchill's shoulders.
*Looks at Gallipoli*
Oh yeah, the few shames of Churchill. That and his racist genocidal treatment of India, just a little whoopsie 🤓
Ooh, Churchill had a lot more than a few shame-shames in his long political carreer. Ask any Irishman. Or Indian. Or Iraqi. Or Iranian. Or Turk (not just Gallipoli, but quite a few other things). Or Australian (familiar with what ACTUALLY happened in 1942) for that matter. Other than his great moment in 1940 he was pretty much a failure.
@@kenoliver8913 I feel like the man was as much of a success as he was a failure. And he was pretty damm successful.
@@blitzwing1 Good orator tho
Much appreciated for uploading this Perun! My mum's boyfriend forced a conversation with me yesterday about US's "alleged" biolabs in Ukraine and I was torn between taking him seriously or completely zoning out from the fantastical nonsense.
Holy shit me too my mom believes Biden made labs in Ukraine to target Russia using BIRDS! How do educated humans believe this nonsense?
@@markb8426 I'm inclined to believe boomers are more easily convinced by poorly contrived conspiracies. Uncle (what I call my mum's boyfriend out of convenience) deadass told me that China is itching to uncover said biolabs as "creators of COVID-19" in order to clear her name and sully USA's. I couldn't be bothered to refute him and decided that bedtime came early.
@@weiltanaka3449
As a 73 year old, I beg to disagree. Apart from dotards like Lavrov and Putin, the Believers tend to be born between 1970 and 1990.
Ur moms boyfriend. I’m sorry
@@christopherellis2663 I'm glad to hear you are a well-read and discerning individual sir. It's just unfortunate many old people I know believe senseless information easily and it is a heartache arguing against them.
"Call of Duty has been lying to you!"
Cracked me up!
The FSB issues smell a lot like they walked right into Ukrainian counter-intelligence. Now I may be giving Ukraine a bit extra credit, but those FSB agents definitely weren't getting solid actionable Intel.
I'll take it a step farther. Russia should have known that Ukraine had been in a war footing since 2014. They'd been training, planning, and preparing for 8 years. This was either a colossal Intel failure by Russia or they had the Intel and ignored it...which I think is worse because it speaks to a leadership failure. Leadership that is incompetent, corrupt, and/or merely stooges for Putin. The fish rots from the head. Meanwhile this is a tragedy for both sides as people who should be living normal lives are getting killed and wounded for the ambitions of a few.
They were given lots of money to cultivate contacts, gain intel etc etc, but likely pocketed a lot of the money themselves as they never thought that there would be an actual war where the bullshit in the reports that they filed would come back to the surface.
I'm English and I can put it on record that we are not eating each other because we are starving!... It's more of a hobby.
You win the Internet for today, mate.
Those smoky lungs and fatty, alcohol stressed livers would have me chose starvation over a Brit.
I think its more of something lost in translation when they were watching pron
@@nooboftheyear7170 HA! :D
As a UK viewer, I can indeed confirm that we are on the brink of cannibalism, although that is more to do with the immense resource costs of the Euston Viral Immunocompromising Labs bioweapon program we have been over-aggressively funding for the past twenty or so years.
‘Brik,’ I’ve already eaten my Neighbours.
Start with all the chavs, then when you've run out, come over here to communist canuckistan and have a go at Trudeau and his socio marxist liberals. Cheers!
@@eddie4324 Raw?
The electricity bill to cook a person must be horrendous nowadays.
Hehe I see what you’re doin there.
Don’t worry about it too much. Eating humans would definitely be better than the crap you English call food. Just don’t boil the stuff, use a grill and some nice herbs.
One thing that adds a lot of context to the supposed Russia's goals at the start of the war. In the first days of the conflict, Russia sent convoys of national guardsmen equipped with riot gear, military troops in parade uniforms, and a full military orchestra right after its elite forces. Only for them to turn into videos with several kilometers of burned vehicles with riot equipment and steaming piles of flesh. They were just moving in neat convoys without air defense or any regard for even basic common sense wartime precautions. It is actually where some of the craziest Bayraktar footage from the first days of the war came from. It's quite clear that they were not going to war, but to perform military parades and suppress civilian riots. Being absolutely convinced that Kyiv will be taken in a matter of hours.
The cannibalism problem in the UK has mostly disappeared with our energy crisis. None of us who use gad can afford to cook anymore, especially something that needs slow cooking such as long pig.
I love the Biolab conspiracy the most, you know why? Most countries look for a casus belli BEFORE starting a war, russia is looking for a casus belli while the war is still going on to retroactively justify it
The entire thing is completely absurd from start to finish and it would be very funny, if people werent dying because of this idiotic war
It isn't a casus belli, it's a pretext, i.e. an excuse.
There are plenty of them now, the list is quite extensive, but all getting repeated by Russias disinformation teams on a regular basis, however stupid, however repeatedly debunked. A list I did earlier:
NATO expansion (how dare countries join a defensive alliance of their own free will)
EU expansion (how dare countries join a political and economic alliance of their own free will),
Demilitarization (funny how only Ukraine needs to do this? They already gave up nuclear weapons, cruise missiles etc?)
Donbass war crimes (lets ignore Russias war crimes)
Genocide against Russians (debunked, and hasn't been a problem for Russia to do the same to Russians in this invasion, and Ukrainians)
Some incident or other (how dare Ukraine defend itself)
14,000 dead in Donbass due to Ukraine (a total that lumps together all deaths, including Ukrainian military, who have the right to defend their country against insurgency and invasion)
Minsk 1 and 2 violated by Ukraine (lets overlook the many treaties violated by Russia, and Russian violation of those treaties
'Separatists' fighting for their right to self-determination (Funny how many of them were appointed from the ranks of the Russian government which has sponsored them from the beginning, and provided all the necessary weapons, training, soldiers, officers, ammunition, vehicles, fuel, and so on. Without which the 'Seperatists' would have been beaten in 2014. Call them what they are, a not very plausible deception operation)
Azov Battalion (But war-criminal mercenaries from Wagner is OK?)
Denazification/fighting fascists (The ones in Russia are OK it seems)
Maidan coup (lets ignore the democratic processes since Russia's last puppet President absconded to Russia)
Ukraines government is a puppet of NATO/USA/EU/etc (Ukraine is considerably more democratic than Russias government, and Russias view on internal democratic processes of another country is irrelevant)
Ukraine is corrupt (So is Russia, at least Ukraine is doing something about it and not invading it's neighbours as a distraction)
Press freedom/religious freedom/LGBTQ rights in Ukraine are under threat (No they are not. All now effectively suppressed in Russia though, it's the Government line, or else)
Ukraine removed pro-Russian members of Parliament (what country would keep in its government those advocating invasion of their own country?)
Etc etc until we're all thoroughly sick of them but we'll still tell them they are morons anyway.
@@JohnSmith-gd2fg a good list. My rebuttals to those disinformation talking points mirrors yours, though yours is more comprehensive.
US exposed every casus belli as a lie before they could invade so they were constantly looking for new ones
@@JohnSmith-gd2fg can you tell me what treaties russia broke? I know some but not all.
I find it hilarious that it came from fox news. A show that's only known for opinion pieces, when it actually has news I'll see pigs fly
Most sensible 3rd party analysis I've ever on this conflict. Thank you. As someone with a University degree in Bio-Chemistry, I've always understood various US foreign initiatives into pathogenic aid and research in other countries. Rabies, Ebola, malaria, various upper respiratory diseases etc are all or could become pandemic. The entire global annual flu vaccine development is dependent on foreign research labs research and foreign government health department collected data. All of this research and activity can easily be twisted into some utterly stupid dark narrative. Make no mistake. The US and other governments do not participate in these activities out of global concern. Rather, everyone wants to nip these kinds of problems in the bud BEFORE these problems can reach their respective borders. Anyone putting out wacko conspiracy about US pathogen warfare labs on foreign soil has no clue about how these things actually work. Such labs are never outsourced on foreign lands. The number one over-riding concern for such labs is security, security, security. The possibility of such outsourcing is utterly ludicrous. The regulations to be able to keep and maintain research levels of "weapons grade" pathogens are extensive and strictly controlled including an absolute moratorium on research out of the country. For those with short memories, I point you to the news reports when weapons grade anthrax was sent to random people as well as some Congress members. That incident made it very clear just how strictly controlled weapons bio-labs are and how it's simply impossible to entertain the idea of outsourcing such labs in other countries. The idea is just plain stupid. On the other hand, bio-labs which do research on new vaccines as preventative health measures are globally widespread with programs for the annual development of flu vaccines being a prime example. Of course such labs will have stocks of common pathogens. Note that everybody's favorite anthrax is one of those which is globally in soils everywhere. However, they will not have "weapons grade" anthrax. Of course such labs will have tissue samples of their regional populations. Any lab will use locally procured tissue samples which are cheaper, fresh and easy to get. And of course, the World Health Organization will recommend labs in conflict areas to destroy their stocks of pathogens. The last thing any health focused organization want is to risk release of pathogens stocks due to indiscriminate bombings. And if you don't think some Russian commander would be so stupid as to not care about bombing such facilities, just look at the stupid Russian commander who took Chernobyl. Really. Speaking of which, Russia must be taking very serious measures to continue to suppress reporting on what subsequently happened to those troops. And for those insisting that Russia's invasion is "going according to plan", I wonder what part taking Chernobyl played into that plan.
They were building defences in freaking Red Forest, where people aren't allowed even to walk. The reason Ukraine left Chernobyl completely without defense was that they didn't believe anyone would actually try to capture it not even speaking about building defense structures.
Very good post and reality based info!
@@VelvanTivius I really do want to hear the convoluted garbage (I refused to dignify it with the term 'reasoning') spouted as the 'according to plan' for taking Chernobyl and digging in troop fortifications in the highly radioactive 'Red Forest'. I'm thinking I could print and immortalize it as a wall plaque for the display of WIS (Willfully Ignorant Stupidity).
Microbi major here. My 4th year lab manual still has procedures that direct safeguards against accidental isolation of anthracis from soil samples. Doesn't mean that I am able to weaponize anthrax. This hysteria about bioweapons just flares my temper.
@@syjiang the few people I know who talk about lab conspiracy are regular hard drug users over many years. They also are of average intelligence at best. They also believe 5g is the root of evil, not just faster 4g, which was just faster 3g etc. They have been little general science ability or knowledge, and if I helpfully explain or direct them to good beginner articles or videos they will reply with even wilder nonsense. I then politely and friendly analyse their wild nonsense so they can see my steps in debunking. But they are in their zone and don't want to leave.
The next step is Why. I'm guessing it's a group think thing. And mistrust is a huge factor. I can't blame them on the mistrust thing because I think most of us can see how shifty politicians are and how much corruption and misappropriation there is. And we don't seem to have any prosecutions for government corruption or abuse of power.
Perun is the logical.
UK resident here. We polished off granny for breakfast this morning, I can absolutely confirm the cannibalism claim.
Quick question if I may? Don’t migratory birds eventually return to the place they flew from? Seems like a terrible vector for the spread of a bio-agent, as effective as a boomerang-shaped hand grenade.
As an American, I cannot stomach the idea of anyone eating humans... without a white wine reduction and some nice mozzarella.
Im not a military commander or an expert but common sense says that its a terrible sign when an army goes into an overdrive of commander purges and changes. Armies should always avoid big scale changes to the command structure during war because it only diverts the focus from the mission. Instead of focusing on winning, it generates a culture of mistrust and scapegoating and instead every commander will be focused on making sure that his own skin is safe.
Reading about the US Civil War both the federal and rebel armies constantly had to replace bumbling Commanders
Then again back then officers were much less professional
@@christianweibrecht6555 The Civil War was a far different conflict. The pre-war US Army was pretty small, and of course the CSA had no standing army pre-war, save for small state militias. (basically going to war right after its birth). Both armies grew massively, and there had only been so many West Point graduates (some of whom went to the Confederacy).
@@christianweibrecht6555 They weren't being purged and they're usually kicked out when they fucked something up so badly(Peninsula, Bull Run). But they don't get kicked out when their army is still engaged in battle.
@@christianweibrecht6555 You can take note that the Commander in Chief of the Union at the outbreak of war designed the grand strategy for the Federals that won the war in the end, even though he was later fired before it was finished (for ill health, not incompetence)
There is a reason you're not an expert, it's exactly the dynamic nature of war that makes those shuffles necessary. You make it sound bad by saying it's a purge in reality, it's just a shuffling of cards, changing command posts depending on the nature of the conflict and area of expertise and of course replace the weak links.
It's standard procedure in war, the only reason you haven't seen it recently is that there have been no war recently, only massacres.
Now I know what I will link to random crazies
You'll be linking a lot, I forsee 😉
they likely wont watch it. Otherwise they wouldn't be random crazies :D
Glad to be of service, let me know if you ever need do a video that needs a procurement nerd's input
I’m no military analyst, but even I know enough that if someone told me “Kiev was a feint” and was serious, I’d check them for a recent head wound.
If Kyiv had bioweapons, how come the Russians deployed along the Kyiv axis weren’t spotted wearing NBC protection gear, or exclusively “buttoned up” inside their vehicles?
Or how come their formations never had dedicated NBC protection units deployed with the rest of the forces?
Simple. They never had biochemical weapons. To suggest that they did is a lie.
@@tompiper9276 Yeah, and funny enough it actually contradicts their “Kyiv was a feint” because if Kyiv had WMD’s, one would think that it would have been their priority objective to secure over anything else.
I mean Russia didn’t even use NBC gear when going through the red forest so they ain’t about to wear it for made up reasons.😅
Another hour long high quality video by Perun. It's nice to know that this will be a good day.
high quality in content, not so much in mic quality, Cheer to the old mic
@@Edinburgh1000 what about it?
@@Edinburgh1000 what don't you like? I think the german bit is slightly off but other than that I don't see any issues.
Thso guy keeps dicapointing essentially repeating the same thing evry video and he's incorrect each time
@@tonyjoka2346 care to clarify?
0:20 tbf we're always on the brink on cannibalism but that's just part of the British cultural fabric we're all used to it
I'd happily eat Johnson.
bloodborne (real)
The war brought Britain’s social cohesion from “cannibalism” to “on the brink of cannibalism”.
That's just capitalism.
It would have probably happend centuries ago, if you wouldn´t have to touch other people to do it.
I've been watching since the beginning and never thought I'd look forward to sitting down to watch an hour long lecture on a Sunday evening - but there you are, strange times. Keep up the excellent work Perun!
The small number of high profile weapons popping up in this war is indicative of a number of governments and defense industry players wishing to test out their new toys in a hot war but not risk serious numbers of expensive weapons to destruction or worse, enemy capture. None of these are being provided to end the war quickly.
53:54 in the last half of ww2 the Germans who read between the lines in their papers noticed that their "Victories" kept occurring closer and closer to Berlin.
The weapons being supplied by western countries to date have generally been from existing stocks, many from systems that are or will be redundant and replaced soon enough.
There might be a few high-profile 'wunderwaffe' on the Russian side, but it seems more propaganda than anything substantive.
Eh that’s true but it’s also a media thing that happens in every war, WWII had Sherman tanks, Falklands war had Exocet missiles, Desert Storm had Patriot missiles, this war has Javelins, etc. In reality of course all available weapons that can be of use are deployed, but the media tends to latch on to one or two
Well Ukraine did specifically request long range missile but the US is only sending 4. I was thinking maybe 100 M777's would be more useful, having said that 3 have been confirmed lost already(you see on Oryx).
The Narrative Slide was the best insight on how the war is covered and how who is winning and losing constantly shifts on an illogical basis.
In retrospect I have another way to demonstrate It as well but thought it wasn't worth the time to include for this presentation. maybe in the future.
Really impressed that you keep releasing great content like clockwork.
Bloody sterling work!
Well said.
Only Perun could do a 1-hour "PowerPoint," and get everyone with a military interest to watch it!
Well, he now has a good chunk of patrons which could make it easier.
These are basically strawmen arguments he made so he can refute them. Its pathetic.
@@attilamarics4808 Russian trolls are going to troll. The analysis is on point and does not take sides. It points out where Ukraine screwed up and where Russia did as well. Unfortunately for you, Russia is a major screwup in this!
From video games to a thorough look at a complicated and serious military conflict;
I'm amazed at what you've done.
Those rusbots would be really upset, if they were able to read (or listen, or understand)!
I heard an analyst say one time in a youtube video that before the war he had a hard time convincing people that the Russian army weren't all 7 foot tall supermen and it seems like now he's having a hard time convincing everyone that they're not all 4 feet tall children. With the conversation shifting towards Russia attacking the Baltics I find it hard to believe that it isn't overblown and that they would actually try it. Risking confrontation with NATO is probably the last thing Russia wants at the moment . Also I'm pretty sure cannibalism is a better alternative than actual British cuisine so the joke is on the Russians for that one. In all seriousness though great video!
I don't get British cuisine jokes. Roast potatoes with goose, stuffing and mash served with gravy and mustard.
Also haggis is really nice.
The UK left the EU as all the rules and regulations were requiring the UK to product food they couldn't cope with.
Now they are out, they can go back to poorly made disgusting food that no one else in their right minds would eat.
@@georgethompson1460 Isn't haggis Scottish tho? :P
@@5peciesunkn0wn Scotland is in Britain
@@georgethompson1460 You have the great traditional dishes of "fish" and "chips", or Grease and Grease as we like to call it. It also includes Cultural Appropriation: The food, which we see copypasted over every high street. Add raging alcoholism to the mix and you have most of English cuisine
Pretty much an insta-watch TH-camr and only discovered you from your first Ukraine/Russia video a few months back. Fairplay
insta watch indeedy
Snap
A properly executed feint would tie up the opponent's forces in one area, while you then attack with your main force in another place.
Instead, Russia took about 10 days to move their northern deployed forces back into Belarus, and then east, and then south to then reinsert them into Ukraine in the Donbas. Meanwhile, Ukraine's forces could take a shorter, more direct route to the east.
The attack force that went to the capital was only 15% of the total army and while it tied up roughly 1/3 of the whole Ukrainian military Russian stormed the southeast. Textbook feint.
@@Mortablunt yeah text book lets also sacrifice our most elite units while only taking 1 regional capital
@@augustuslunasol10thapostle Which Russia then lost.
@@questionmaker5666 what a genius move by traitor generals
@@Mortablunt If the attack on Kyiv was a feint it was a poorly executed one. If you wanted to secure a quick victory over an enemy nation then the way to do it is to seize its capitol. Russia blew it in that regard and saying this was a feint is a complete cope.
6 months ago, in the 51 minute, in the "narrative" topic, Russia objective seemed to be to take Bakhmut.
They are still doing that.
S-i-x months.
I occasionally looked at RT, just for giggles...the people there are utterly lost to any sense of sanity. It is worse than Twitter (gasp!)
Thanks Perun, for being a ray of anti-disinformation in this drab storm of deceit.
I will always trust (but verify!) your delightful videos.
P.S.: much better audio today, nice!
You have to admit those are some brilliant manipulation techniques. Russia invading their historically fraternal country and convincing people that Russia is just defending herself
erloriel One side or the other is living in a world that doesn't equate with what is happening in reality. Don't be so sure you're the one on the sane side. The first casualty of war is the truth. That is why it is good you at least looked at RT (if only for a laugh), many people don't even get that far. I live in London and history is my hobby. I have been following what has been going on in the region for many years now. In my opinion, virtually everything in the Western mainstream media about the war in Ukraine is either false or pure propaganda. And I mean everything, from the reasons for the war, to the Russian agenda, to the war itself. I used to laugh at RT around the time of the first Iraq war, it seemed such obvious propaganda compared to what I 'knew' to be true. it was only when I realised that the reality didn't match what I was being told by the Western media, that I understood that I was the victim of propaganda and suddenly RT wasn't so laughable.
@@casimirkylian3703 not only defending mother russia, but saving the lpr/dpr russian speaking region from baby killing neo-nazis, because putin really deeply cares about those poor people enduring decades of repression and torture lurking around every corner..
on the manipulation and it supposed brilliancy, standard technique has for a long time been just to over saturate the informational field with polarizing/false evidence/grand conspiracies etc, as to let anyone trying to understand whats really going on, just give up before getting anywhere near the truth.. it works on the russian people and seemingly it's even effective on western audience to some degree..
while I agree, the thing with RT and other media sites is that they also tend to allow news stories and reporters that report on things that western media dare not or that go against what the American Government view as damaging to their empire.
@@casimirkylian3703 well, those techniques only really convince that 5-10% or so of westerners who will believe any idiotic conspiracy theory.
I am a german citizen and the whole topic of aid for Ukraine is very nuanced. From the start, germany should help WAY more. But "germany bad" would be a little bit oversimplified.
1. You guys can't imagine how much fcking bureaucracy we have here. And it is the good old paper and mail type of bureaucracy, not this fancy "internet" stuff all the kids are talking about. It is a lot, it is slow and most likely cant be cut short. Germany tried the last 20 years to get things more straight and yet here we are.
2. While the public is overwhelmingly in favor of more support for Ukraine, it seems like that our government is using the signature move of Angela Merkel, playing both sides so we always come out on top. This point is depressing, but it is what it is.
3. We have a coalition composed of 3 parties. 2 of them have a rather bad choice to make here. The greens got all their votes based on protecting the environment and the FDP got theirs for a good economy. For both of those things they would need Russian gas. But there is a silver lining, the greens are suddenly ok with taking coal plants back online and the FDP seems to slowly understand that the economy is going to be fucked anyways for the next couple of years. We might see more support from this side in the coming weeks.
4. SCHOLZ!!!!! Scholz was proven to be corrupt and allowed billions of tax money to get stolen. It was called cum-ex or something like that, look it up if you want to know more. I wouldn't be surprised if russia would just bribe him to hold support.
This are only a couple of the factors and all of them don't really shine a good light on germany. I just wanted to show that the german public would love to see more support, a clear stance and some responsibility of our country. We arent being heard. I hope that germany will play a bigger role in the near future in order to stop russia.
Slava Ukraini
I watched the special session of the german parliament that Sunday morning in March. Powerful stuff, complete and unconditional unity and applause from the whole chamber. I thought then that Russia made a royal blunder, if they made Germany stand up as one man and speak with one voice. The sluggish execution of the grand plans that we’ve seen since has been less inspiring. I’m still hopeful, though. “SCHOLTZ!!!” makes me giggle as it leads my thoughts to Trapatoni’s epic “wie eine Flasche leer” rant. STRUNTZ!!!
Im not sure if I could google the words cum ex and find what you mean
It is important to note a couple of factors that are often not included with German aid for Ukriane though.
1) Germany did send a hughe chunck of it's stock of mobile and easy to use weapons (Panzerfaust, Hand grenades, Rifles, Ammunitions etc.), and we are steadily sending more as it gets produced. There simply weren't hughe stocks before the war.
2) despite all the bad press about Bundeswehr Tech, Germany has one of the most advanced militeries in the world. It takes time to train a crew on stuff like the pnazerhaubitze 2000, moreso than e.g. the M777 Howitzers. And germany is training Ukrainian troops jn various more modern systems, and delivering them as training is done.
3) Germany is also doing a good chunck of indirect support that is often not tlaked about. E.g. with the PzH2000, Germany wasn't the only country sening some to Ukraine. But the Ukrainian crews that are manning the Belgian PzH2000's were also trained jn Germany, by the Bundeswehr. And as any military veteran can tell you, training costs a suprising amount of money, especialy for artillery systems and such.
4) Germany is paying for a lot of indirect aid. Since the war broke out, Germany voluntarily invested extra billions of Euros into various EU funds (of which Germany was already the biggest contributor) that e.g. help with Ukrainian Refugees in countires like Poland, or paid for medival and other civilian aid to Ukraine. It's just that most official numbers don't ciunt them as German contributions ot Ukraine, since they were paid to the EU who then used them to help Ukraine.
@@reappermen don’t get me wrong, there’s no criticism in what I wrote. If I look at Perun’s slide on GDP-normalised aid, Germany and her neighbours place so closely that comparison is meaningless. At least to the west, north and south. To the east, the numbers are decidedly higher. I don’t know why. Criticism is applicable (and not only for Germany) regarding the pussyfooting around terminating all business relationships with Russia. For me, this isn’t even a question worth discussing. The flow of money to Russia stops before anyone can say “Panzerfaust”. Doing business with me and my democratic peers is a privilege. Russia, if it ever qualified for this privilege certainly has lost it now. The fact that we can’t bring ourselves to stop supporting killing children in the Ukraine is a brilliant illustration of the fundamental flaw of capitalism. If you ask me, GDP up or down has no say in the matter because it’s a moral decision, not financial. In moral decisions, the people decide what goes but we get told “Wirtschaftlich unmöglich“ by representatives for big finance. It’s time we show who is the boss here. The option “buy fossil energy from Russia” simply doesn’t exist and we should be working on the options that do.
Don’t feel to bad I am angry with Biden as well. Why do we sacrifice to spend $800 billion/year on a military if in time of crisis with our friends we can’t fully use it. The US should be sending Ukraine 1000s of artillery pieces and millions of rounds of ammunition. Millions of infantry kits to outfit Ukrainian volunteers. It an embarrassment to see these poor men forced to fight for their country’s with such obsolete junk. We should be sending them weapons that can strike deep into Russia. If Russia wants war give them war. They aren’t insane enough to launch a nuclear attack and to be cautious Biden should tell Russia if they do use nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons the US will respond in kind on Russian cities.
The west as a whole has been less than lack luster and as a result a lot more Ukrainians and even Russian are going to die before this war is over. The only way to end it quickly it crush the Russian military quickly and overwhelmingly.
Recently found your channel. Really love the presentations. Keep it up :)
I think that perhaps we forget the truth of the soldiers of the battlefield; they're very superstitious.
While the morale boost of hearing of heroes is impressive, you cannot forget the fear that one dedicated soldier with a rifle can inflict, and these were real people that sometimes forced the enemy to dedicate entire artillery strikes or bombing campaigns to just to try and kill them.
Sometimes you don't even need an actual plane or one single tank to start a legend that makes the enemy nervous, just skilled SAM teams and a good PR spin story to broadcast over the air how the "Ghost of Kiev has brought down another Russia plane" or two/three tanks painted rhe same way with a drone overhead to coordinate the tanks so that no two Russian armoured vehicles make simultaneous spottings of the tanks and all of a sudden, you have a tank that can seemingly dash across the battlefield.
Of course, you can always just have outliers. Charles Upham, awarded VC and Bar, did exist.
So much of the 'feint' arguments remind me of televangelists telling their audiences that the Rapture is coming 'any day now...'
Either the Rapture or any other end of the world, which isn't only spread by televangalists. Considering the amount of ends of the world I've already survived, I'm not really scared of the next one.
Russians got to Kyiv without almost any resistance from Ukranians in 24 hours, and than they committed 1 to 2 battalions to their offensive operation, that's around 1 200 man. Why on earth would any army get to the capital, have a road open to bring in 50+ battalions for offensive operation against a city of 2 million, but than send 600 guys to try to ''capture the city''?
People often have a hard time accepting that some events and outcome are simply the result of bad decisions or bad luck. There is an overestimation of evil genius, and underestimation of stupidity, incompetence or bad luck. The simpler explanation is more often the reality.
It's also the reason for wild conspiracy theories, to explain something that doesn't make sense. Randomness doesn't usually make sense, and it's more comforting to believe there was a plan. A grand event requires a grand plan, is the thinking. A leader of state, tripping over a rock, hitting his head and dying by accident would be hard to accept.
I know I made this mistake initially with Donald Trump. Before realising that there was literally no genius to his evil. Just a confused, scared bumble-fuck, watching Fox and bumbling along.
Hanlon's Razor: "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."
@@JohnSmith-gd2fg Gillette's Razor...gives a nice shave :)
the last one isnt about stupid things occurring it is a stupid and rare thing occurring
@@Cecilia-ky3uw True. Also good to not that someone always wins the lottery. Even though the odds are basically 0.
A hint for anyone wanting to avoid “clickbait” channels… steer clear of any headline containing the words, “Putin is furious”, “Putin is angry”, “Putin’s rage”, “Putin is livid”, “Putin is beside himself”, “Putin sees red”, or the like.
On the other hand, “Putin chokes on his cornflakes” might just be worth the price of admission.
@@anthonymorris2276 I would absolutely watch that. Just to see where it was going, if for no other reason.
There was also the war plans that were on the board behind Lukashenko that appeared to show a much bigger conflict also including Moldova. That would suggest it isn’t going according to someone’s plan even if that someone is just Lukashenko.
My take on the war. Initially the plan was to blitz thier way to Kyiv. Force a regime change, and then install a puppet and mop up pockets of resistance. They didn't count on the Ukrainian forces having a veto. So then they had to figure out where to go from there, so they decided on the Donbass... but again, they didn't count on Ukrainian forces fighting back so hard, so now we find ourselves here. Both sides have been burning through troops and materiel to effectively a stalemate. But the difference is, the Ukrainians are getting resupply whereas Russia is now drawing on decades old barely capable equipment and old men to man them. The general trajectory here is that Russia is currently holding on, but the tipping point is closer than they would like. The tide is going to turn sooner rather than later, the question is. How will Russia take that?
Even with the current reports about the fighting in the Donbass.
The truth is that nothing short of the complete defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces will give the Russian's a chance to bargain out of this war from a position of strength.
Their basically like the Confederates. Can gain superiority in field battles but are limited in their ability to regenerate their losses.
@@lordulberthellblaze6509 That would imply that in order to win, Ukraine needs to dive into the Russian interior and march towards the Volga and burn everything in their path.
Which is fine by me. Exterminate the orcs!
I agree with your first half but not your second half.
Watch the below video:
Ukraine War: Time running out for Lysychansk (It is on TH-cam by Sky News)
Plus Russia has won the last 5 battles in a row and is about to win their 6th when Lysychansk falls..
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_engagements_during_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
I hate to say it but it looks like Ukraine is in a bad spot right now..
27:14 "to all the gamers out there, I'm sorry, but Call of Duty has been lying to you" -Perun
Smashing that dislike button and unsubscribing, how dare you insult CoD's realism like that
(yes I'm joking)
F to mourn.
RAMIREZ! Use this spoon to assasinate all the BTG’s commanders. Then use this dirt to destroy their tanks. Then use this water bottle to steal a T-14 so that the CIA can analyze it.
CoD predicted WW2
F
@@icantseethis WWII happened because of CoD.
I love how every little village is very strategic and every time one is lost the next village is more strategic than the last lol
Thanks for your continuous, high quality updates, Perun! You do the work the news cycle has largely given up on.
Discovering this channel is one of the few upsides of this conflict. I have selected this channel using the bell to notify me of every single upload.
Kyiv operation? Feint. There never was pontoon crossing. It was also a feint. Entire Kherson operation? A feint. The Moskva? You didn't see it coming but also a feint. The entire war is a feint. VDV plays chess. Nato plays checkers.
Tankies in 2023: "The fall of Moscow was a feint too, the offensive is really going to begin once they get to the Urals"
Fall of the Soviet Union was a feint
@@notjimmy6822 Simpsons did it.
@@bigd8122 "Could Homer Simpson BE A COMMUNIST? His father, spoke out on his behalf."
@@johnroach9026 ahahahahaha! this is exactly what they said in 1812 :) they said that IRL!
Again, well thought out analysis. Watching this video even in the month of January of the new year has provided a lot of insight and context. Keep up the good work!
"Keeping plans so secretive, nobody else can prepare for it" is classic strongman/dictator behaviour. Keeping anyone outside of your most-inner circle in the dark gives you many advantages over foes, like unpredictability. But keeping anyone outside of your most-inner circle in the dark also leads to bad ideas becoming "good ideas", when placed in an echo chamber. When it goes wrong, leaders and the grunt people you need don't know "what they're supposed to doing in the plan", either. Russia's revolving door of low-high commanders, supply issues, and cohesion of forces are indicative of an army that had a plan revealed at the last minute - with an emphasis on someone's Wunderwaffe hubris.
Once again, You have provided an excellent analysis of the situation. My wife and son live in Kyiv, I do too but am stuck in the US due to covid and this damn war. My family has relocated to Kremenchug and are relatively safe. Everything we owned was destroyed in Kyiv.
I have found that all I see on the news is Russian losses but relatively little on Ukrainian losses. This is frustrating. So it is nice and informative to listen to your analysis. Those who surround me are always on the edge of their seats, or could care less, about daily updates, and judge the war by the daily production on CNN.
I just want to go home.
I hate that you have to have that exposure. Know that many of us Americans aren’t that way. Gregory sir I genuinely wish you the utmost. I am glad for you at least that you and your family made it but the fact you lost everything is horrific still. From one human to another what’s happening to Ukraine is just wrong. Beyond wrong. You’ll get home and see your family and build a new life. Best wishes
I must point out sadly that Ukrainian losses will be not that much lower than the Russian losses in numbers of people by now. The Donbass region is said to be a real meat grinder and the use if low quality troops there on both sides reflect this. Some presence is better than no presence and they keep the enemy busy shelling them. It has become a war of attrition already with Russia now going after strategic targets like bridges. Logistics will be the key to coming events and it isn't over for the foreseeable future unless something unexpected happens.
Yesterday they hit Kremenchug shopping mall with two rockets while there were 1000 people inside, I hope your family is doing fine.
Ukrainian losses would be valuable intel for Russia. From my perspective, a lot of the problems in the Russian army they changed were those the west kept exposing, so in my humble opinion we should talk as little about it as possible
Honestly, this is such a fantasticly well made video, and I'm truly thankful that people do such things on TH-cam.
I also wanted to add a few things to support some of the points you make.
First of all, the general narrative seen in the Russian media is that the US is doing badly, the gas prices are all over the roof, the Biden is a senile old man, who can't even ride his bike properly. The EU states are gonna backtrack and drop the Ukraine under the wagon soon as the winter comes. In other words - they doing they best to show that everything is fine and everything is going according to plan, while it's clearly not. The food and gas prices in Russian are growing rapidly too. And well, look at it however you want, but Putin is getting old - so some form of power transit is imminent.
Secondly, the thing about Russian government is that it's so corrupt that it can't even put people in its body to blame, because it's so fundamentally wrong system that's doesn't allow for a good initiative and work to be done. You must be mediocre and obedient in all senses possible to stay there. The thing about the intelligence circles that the people who brought the good info were quietly discharged from the services, because the the big top bosses didn't want to hear the bad stuff (And would you expect any different things with such system). Instead they said "we are cool, great and we are thriving, so correct your intel according to that or gtfo." And this is the solemn reason behind this circus with "just repeat a quick Crimean push". You can check out more if you would listen to Medusa podcast where they talk about what's going on inside FSB. Because as far as I heard that intelligence chief (who also completely screwed up during the Ukraine revolution) had avoid any type of punishment.
The third thing - shadow mobilisation is absolutely going, just not in the form you would expect. I have done my 1 horrible year of mandatory service and yet my office called in and told they want to send me on "re-qualification course" in a week 🙃. And the thing about it is that usually those lasts about 2 months tops and they can be extended up to 12 months, but the sum of your time being called to do those can't be more than 12 month during the entirety of your time being in the reserve. So yeah here is that. Russian is desperately trying to compensate for the lack of personnel both on front and in homeland units and bases.
The fourth thing is - Russia was trying desperately to build an intimidating reputation and West happily assisted with that. The Western media fear and idea of Russia based on a cold-war sentiment and how conveniently the Russian can serve as the big and scary scapegoats. And this is come to the point where the US began to basically believe her to idea that Russia is big and scary. Nope, the only scary thing we have is the nukes. You have seen the rest.
Fifth thing - Russian industrial complex can create a high tech material, which keeping in mind that this industry is full of shady schemes and one day companies is an achievement against all odds. But we still can't produce it in even remotely significant numbers - Armata is the best example. The most part of our the most old aviation ammunition was wasted during the Syrian campaign. Check out the Открытый Проект for more - they did a great report on what changed in the Russian army during the last ten years. (Spoiler: nothing at all, yet expenses went over limits).
Sixth thing. Russian government plans as little as it can. If you have no plan, you can't fuck it up right? There are numerous occasions, where government had near to no or whatsoever idea how to deal with things. Forest fires, covid, pension reform and foreign policies - there are dozens of examples, where Russia clearly had no plan, because it always rely on fake it till you make it.
"listen to Medusa podcast " --> that is some solid advice, I might need to do that ^^
Thank you for that info! And thank you for being a rational Russian
I've come to the conclusion that the repeated warnings about 'Starting WW3' are just another tactic, not just from the Russian government, but from their disinformation network.
Well they're right about Biden, at least
Thanks for sharing your insights.
Good luck with you "re-qualification course" , I hope its not what you insinuate, or that it is to replace regular troops within the RF, or even better - that you manage to avoid it somehow.
Take care :))
Broke: Kyiv was a feint
Woke: The Donbas is a feint
Bespoke: Ukraine is a feint
Galaxy-Brain Toke: Russia is a feint
This video just flew by. It’s amazing how much work you’re putting into these. Can’t imagine how long it takes to record an hour.
As someone living in London I can't really comment on the cannibalism as I haven't unbarred my house. Like many in the UK we live mostly on turnips grown in our allotment. But I have heard that Boris reached a deal with Rwanda to accept himself and his cabinet indefinetly and have seen recent evidence that he had arrived there.
Aye. We dug up the Iron Bitch and turned her to jerky. The skin was a little balmy. Embalmy that is...
Wouldn't it be a standard safety protocol to destroy pathogens in a lab in the event of war?
Yup
Perun asks the wrong qustion here. Why destroy research data?
Don’t worry, I’m sure data was backed up in the cloud.
@@williamlloyd3769 «the cloud» means putting the data on an external server managed by someone somewhere. A researcher can’t just put all his sensitive person data on the PIs Google drive. And from my experience, research institutions in general, even in the first world, are pretty bad at IT and data management. Stuff could well be lost.
Why are your presentations so good every single time? Perfectly structured, sensibly narrow, transparent on the caveats, good pace. Thank you!
Gotta say, there's definitely NATO special forces in Ukraine, but they're operating how special forces typically operate: they're training local forces to fight instead of participating in the fight themselves.