Cruise & ballistic missiles in Ukraine - effectiveness, lessons (and are the Russians running out?)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ส.ค. 2024
- Russia (and the USSR before it) has always placed great emphasis on its missile and rocket forces. Whether the threat to be countered was NATO aircraft, shipping, or ground targets, the Russian military has always looked to relatively advanced missile systems as the answer.
And so, when the February invasion opened, many observers expected Russia to commence its campaign with a barrage of modern cruise and ballistic missiles, the famous Kalibr and Iskander missiles, destroying Ukrainian command and communications infrastructure. Instead, what followed was a relatively limited campaign the achieved, at best, the temporary suppression of the Ukrainian air forces and air defences.
As the war evolved however, Russia broadened its list of targets and started inflicting a greater toll on Ukrainian targets. For their part, the Ukrainians introduced their own new family of missiles - the GLMRS of HIMARS fame.
In this video I look at that initial missile campaign, the way the campaign evolved subsequently, and what lessons other countries might take from the war to date. I also address the question of sustainability - is Russia running out of these precision munitions, and to what extent do their production facilities have the ability to compensate.
One thing I do want to say as well, is that while I try and take a reasonably detached look at issues like this, I want to make clear that discussing the performance of these systems shouldn't take away from recalling the very real human impact of their use, particularly against civilian targets or in built up areas.
Apologies for the late upload - wasn't well earlier this week and it pushed my recording window back.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- Opening Words
00:00:31 -- Russia's Most Feared Conventional Weapons
00:01:57 -- What Am I Covering?
00:02:45 -- Doctrine & History
00:03:03 -- Historic Aerospace Talent
00:04:25 -- Soviet Rocketry and Missile Programs
00:05:42 -- Rocketry as a Response
00:08:14 -- A Rocket and Missile Force
00:09:14 -- Doctrine and Usage
00:10:41 -- The Competing Forces
00:10:58 -- The Cutting Edge
00:13:31 -- The Kalibr Showpiece
00:15:11 -- The Old
00:16:34 -- The Improvised
00:18:47 -- Ukraine - the Old, the New, and yet to come
00:22:08 -- Missile Use In Ukraine
00:22:16 -- The Opening Salvos
00:24:22 -- Escalation
00:25:42 -- Send in the Museum Pieces
00:27:52 -- Note on Targeting
00:30:15 -- The Rebuttal
00:33:13 -- Performance Observations
00:33:28 -- Reliability and Performance
00:36:50 -- Targeting and Accuracy
00:41:18 -- Ukrainian use of GMLRS
00:43:59 -- Sustainability?
00:44:08 -- "They're running out"
00:45:39 -- Evaluating the Thesis
00:49:35 -- Production Capacity
00:52:53 -- So is this Sustainable?
00:54:54 -- Lessons for the others
00:55:03 -- ISR is Central
00:57:14 -- Consumption Rates
00:58:42 -- Capability Requirements
01:01:45 -- Potential Importance
01:03:13 -- Conclusion
01:04:34 -- Channel Update
Sources
(incomplete due to late upload, check back in 24-48hrs for more):
Ukrainian and Russian missile strengths:
Various (primarily MB 2021 as always)
Russian doctrine on the use of SSMs:
armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pu...
Russians claiming use of Onyx ASM against ground targets:
tass.com/defense/1456649
Missed Targets: the Struggles of Russia’s Missile Industry - Maxim Starchak (CEPA)
cepa.org/missed-targets-the-s....
Russia and strategic non-nuclear deterrence -Capabilities, limitations and challenges (by Valeriy Akimenko - Chatham House)
www.chathamhouse.org/2021/07/...
Partial compilation of KH-22 strikes:
www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/w...
Video of air launch of KH-22 against Ukraine
www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...
Reference to US claims on Russian missile failure rates:
www.businessinsider.com/us-in...
Key Caveat:
There is one golden caveat for this one - as coverage of the ongoing war, this video suffers from all the usual caveats around data and source quality. The only people who fully understand the decisions being made in the Ukrainian and Russian HQs are the people who are there. I am just doing the best I can with the information available to me.
All claims here should be treated as speculative in nature, and may well be displaced as additional information comes to light.
I was about to go ballistic if there wasn't a video today but now it will be easy cruising.
My head was exploding, trying to come up with a comment that would rocket me to the top.
But I think your comment is way out of my range.
A guided day, if you will.
I see what you did there 👏
Read Anatoliy Golitsyn “New lies for old” & “Perestroika Deception”.
* What makes Anatoliy Golitsyn stand out is the uncanny accuracy of his predictions. Mark Riebling wrote in his spy book Wedge: The Secret War between the FBI and the CIA, “[O]f Golitsyn’s falsifiable predictions, 139 out of 148 were fulfilled by the end of 1993-an accuracy rate of 94 percent.”
I have such weakness for those corny jokes, my good man I almost choke on my Pepsi
There were five ballistic missile hits in the immediate vicinity of my house, and all of them were in the area of the former military plant Artyom. During the first shelling, one rocket hit the administrative building and the business center on Lukyanovka (facade and the top floor were damaged there), the second rocket fell into the parking lot near the workshops, and the third hit the first floors of a residential building, killing a woman. The second shelling completely hit the same residential complex (Lviv quarter), this time causing serious damage to the upper floors. Apparently, according to the data on which Russians are guided in their strikes, they have a serious problem with intelligence and they use information from the 90s. This is probably why they did not take into account the dense buildings in the area of their target, as well as the fact that their target itself has been producing vacuum cleaners for many years, and the military production itself has long been transferred outside Kyiv. Also, on the fifth day of the war, eight missiles hit the territory of the airfield five kilometers from the location of my unit. By evening, our attack aircraft again took off from this airfield. Draw your own conclusions from this.
Stay safe and may Ukraine soon be free.
Intelligence from the 90’s? That’s incompetence bordering on criminal. I’m glad you survived, stay safe and Slava Ukraini.
That's what baffles me.
If the Russians used 90s map and Intel and unwittingly sailed Kalibrs into new apartment blocks, that's believable for about the first month or two.
However, by that time, it should become apparent now that their data is useless, and they should refrain from wasting what limited numbers of Kalibrs that would simply be wasted on civilian apartment blocks.
So why did the Russians keep sending in all sorts of PGMs despite time betraying the fact that their targeting data is obsolete? By this point, it's no more effective than Kh-22s and dumb (glide) bombs. Why keep using tier 1 PGMs if they don't have high fidelity targeting data? Why the waste of resources?
Scale betrays intent, and when long range missile strikes kill more civilians than it does defense personnel, I can't help but suspect genocidal intent on the part of the Kremlin.
No doubt, the Russians didn't enter into this war with genocidal intent. They came with annexation intent. They wanted to Russify Ukraine to bolster Russia's dwindling population of young, educated European Slavs. However, this could only be achieved if they could replicate the Crimea bum rush. And that failed spectacularly.
And if the Muscovite Kremlin can't have something, no one will. It's been their standing doctrine since their founding days. Hence, the war starts to resemble genocide with each and every passing day. Their doctrine is simple: If Russia can't have Ukraine as their asset, nobody will have Ukraine, not even Ukraine themselves.
TL;DR, Russia entered this war with a cynical and calculated intent to integrate Ukraine's human capital to strengthen Russia. They failed, contrary to their expectations. They lost their heads, and now they're lashing out. Make no mistake, even if there's no genocidal intent in February 2022 (which is a generous assumption, to say the least), there most likely is one now.
*Which is puzzling.*
Even most modern military forces take the time to figure out if their intelligence is valid early on. Something just isn't right about that sort of mentality, especially when you know you have limited arms capacity.
Remember the 40km traffic jam of Russian armoured vehicles?
Remember how many of their generals have been killed?
No night vision, someone sold it off on the black market, wonder who bought it?
I'm guessing their intelligence is as well run.
Lot of millionaire generals in Russia. Lot of corruption.
I love the drop at 0:00 - no BS, no chitchat, no introduction, just a straight dive into the topic at hand without wasting a second of anyone's time. I love this channel so much.
Not wasting a second of anyone's time??? Kkk I've watched about 5 minutes from his channel. It's all rubbish.
@@aachoocrony5754 watching 5 minutes is watching his channel now? I guess, besides a grasp on grammar, you don't like listening to an informative and factual lecture on military matters. I can understand if it's not your thing, but then why are you here?
@@709mash Are you crying? Yes I watched 5 minutes collectively from about 5 videos. Your description is very funny. You enjoy being spoken to as if you're 8 years old? And what facts are you talking about? Wtf are you talking about grammar? You must be 8 years old?
Kkkkk '...without wasting a second of anyone's time.' Eeee good one. Not your time or mine. Not 1 second from the beginning as he pisses at your cerebrum and you're enjoying it.
@@709mash Humans are funny. Glad Perun is doing well! What wonderful content shared with clarity and nuance
As a son of the 50's, a nuclear field artilleryman (USASETAF/NATO), a surveyor/engineer/sculptor with a penchant for detail, I find all your analysis, commentary and observations well worth my time and attention and tasty as a fat PB&J by a warm fire after a long hike in the intellectual wilderness that is TH-cam. Thanks for what you do.
Nicely put, Larry. Perun's analysis is such a breath of fresh air ... I scour the "intellectual wilderness that is TH-cam" in vain but Perun's videos give me some hope that I can actually learn something instead of being assaulted with propaganda and mediocrity. Cheers, Terry
I have questions about the term 'nuclear field artillerymen'. I'm not familiar with 50s-era doctrine and equipment, but I'd imagine that that kind of setup has some problems.
@@aaroncabatingan5238 small scale tactical nuke tipped artillery shells was a real planned tactic for stopping a full scale Russian blitz into Europe... There was a nuke size that both agreed upon that would not be grounds for a strategic nuclear response... They also had and used nuke tipped A/A missiles during that time period...
It is remarkable we didn't all die in nuclear fire...
@@aaroncabatingan5238 50s was ripe with production of various nuclear tipped shells for short to medium range tactical strikes. Some really badass stuff came out of it, look up M65 atomic cannon for example.
In a hot Cold war scenario these guys would be the first to fire into Soviet territory and unfortunatly be first to be wiped out by nuclear counterattack
Pretty sad and says much for the US military when an engineer is impressed by a gamer with no military quals whatsoever.
I’m in the hospital now and these videos make my day every time they come out.
All the best, sincerely hope you get well :)
Love this material, it's as good as anything I ever saw or produced in 40+ years of doing military operations analysis. One thought on your "Targeting and Accuracy" slide, regarding reasons why follow-up strikes take so long. It may not be that their BDA is faulty, or that their evaluation and response planning times are excessively slow. It may simply be that they have to wait for resupply of weapons to do the strike with, which could be an indirect indicator that they are in fact running low on inventory.
Cheers mate, and solid point. Especially when you're talking about Kalibr strikes there's also the question of the reloading process for the ships in the Black Sea and the time taken to restock after the ships on patrol have exhausted their munitions.
@@PerunAU I don't know if you are familiar with the double tap strategy. For Russia it means, hitting civilian infrastructure, following up with another strike to either take out first responders or attack hospitals in the area. Looking at what Russia has been doing and what they are saying could mean that their main goal is to get the Ukrainians to die or flee. Their "denazification" could mean the genocide of all Ukrainians not siding with Russia.
@@PerunAU Interesting point!
I would assume that ships are often?/normally?/always? resupplied by ships - and as you pointed out in earlier videos, getting additional vessels into the Black See would probably be prevented by Turkey …
Another key consideration is cloud cover. Assuming that the Russians are using EO imagery collected by satellite to conduct (at least some of) the BDA and provide re-strike recommendations for attacks conducted in heavily denied areas, they would need a satellite pass to occur while the target is not obscured by cloud.
@@jamielondon6436 It depends on what is being resupplied. Things like fuel and food are relatively easy to resupply at sea, a hose between the ships and a line to move crates along on a pulley system. Shells are harder as they are more easily damaged than cans of beans, but they aren't difficult to load into magazines. Missiles are very prone to damage in both transfer and loading, and given the size and weight, are also difficult to handle in both processes.
Resupply underway is one of the most difficult things in maritime logistics to do safely and well. The US Navy and British Royal Navy are probably the only two navies in the world that do it routinely on a global basis. A few others do it as a drill and practice in local waters. Most avoid it due to the difficulty and risk.
It's worth noting that neither the US or UK try resupply of missiles at sea. They find the risk and difficulty of reloading vertical launch systems too high. VLS would be easier to load at sea than the diagonal launch systems Russia prefers. While I don't know that Russia doesn't resupply missiles underway, I would be very surprised if they did so with any regularity. It's a lot easier and safer to resupply alongside in port where the ship isn't moving much and the missile wouldn't be swinging around in a way that would lead to it being damaged.
I can’t believe how hard this channel rules. Tight editing and dense with facts, it’s an hour of each week well spent.
Dense doesn't mean its not bs. Bias revealed.
@@aachoocrony5754 You've left replies on every comment saying anything positive, without actually explaining what your problem is. Do you disagree with the numbers quoted, the ideas presented, the method of delivery, etc. You've not actually specified what's wrong, in your opinion.
@@ShardtheWolf you mean you don't know? I don't even go that for. I couldn't watch the whole thing to the end. Just skim over it or read through the titles. Isn't it obvious enough for you that its a hype channel therefore not to be trusted? Unless you crave it. I consider that sad.
@@aachoocrony5754 you still haven't pinpointed a *specific* problem. As far as titles go, it's pretty basic, just "We're going to talk about guided missiles, and speculate on Russia's stock of them"
@@ShardtheWolf bla bla bla. Just read my first comment. Enough said yes? Ok bye. It is facking dene w bs. Should I repeat? Ok bye
Kudos on your work! I'm a Ukrainian in Ukraine now, know a thing or two of what's going on here. Your analysis accuracy "rate" is about 100%.Keep on doing great job , thumbs up.
Came across this channel a few weeks ago and I LOVE it. Have binged all the lectures. This is some of the most thorough reporting done on Ukraine
O yeah for sure! His stuff is great!
Welcome to the Perun Commune brotha hahaha
He's got a talent for this type of instruction.
I did the same thing but it was months ago.
I tell people about this channel every time I get a chance
I always check my YT notifications hoping for a Perun video more than any other channel. The content is very well organized and easily digestible, and it provides tons of insight into the ongoing crisis and surrounding geopolitics. Hands down my favorite channel of 2022.
perun. my beloved
Every Sunday like clockwork
I always stop anything else (podcast, audiobook, other video, etc.) watch them immediately.
Sunday mornings is when he releases his content! There, you won’t have to check all the time ;)
"long time listener, first time caller" it is my first time commenting on these videos, but I feel the need to interact as an audience because these videos are just so damn good to not feed to the algorithm. I specifically subbed to the Patreon because I do not want this content to go away. You're dead on with the last video, the "small" audience that interacts is voracious for the absolute logic bombshells you leave on the platform. Keep up the good work Perun, please, for the good of the world.
I used to be an air defense soldier in the US army (14T). At my first duty station in South Korea, we had the ability to attack ground targets with PAC-2 PATRIOT missiles if we needed emergency artillery. We had 13F (Forward Observers) on our post incase things got to that level. (highly highly unlikely, but its a capability none of the less)
Best content on TH-cam. Love the thoughtful, factual, balanced viewpoint you bring to these topics which have applications well beyond the defense sector.
I served in Germany in the 80s in Corps Forward Comcen (comms Centre), this was the comcen for the entire BAOR (British Army on the Rhine). When on exercise we'd move 'everything' every 48 - 72 hours, letting Corps Rear pick up the comms while we were moving. Presumably to deny targeting data for long range/aircraft strikes. Typically a move would take about 6-8 hours, 1-2 to tear down, 2-3 hours to move and 2-3 hours to set up again. I've no idea if this is still standard and I'd imagine there'd be a fkton less vehicles to move now than there was in the days before integrated circuits became widely available.
Makes sense. Can see that perhaps best practice isn't always being done and soldiers suffer when we see those drones drop small grenades. Sitting out in the open when there is good cover near to them, etc. Would be interesting to see a video by a good soldier critiquing some of the battle videos.
According to Lockheed Martin the Shoot and Scoot timeframe for the HIMARS is 60 seconds to offload the rockets and then a few minutes to get moving.... targeting is done by the HIMARS when moving or downloaded from command. There is then an hour to reposition maybe 20 miles away or whatever and reload and then rinse and repeat. So to remove a HIMARS system enemy intelligence needs to be accurate to within a few minutes to an hour and to within a few meters of a target. That's assuming they can see a HIMARS in real time actaully stopping at a firing position and being set up, or the launch itself gives the position away and it is hit within a minute or two. OR, if they are lucky enough to actaully spot one before it fires in transit.
Russia recently got their hands on Iranian drones tasked with this very objective. How effective they will be with such a short set up timeframe is questionable. My guess is with the Russians in charge a lot of civilian buses and haulage companies will end up losing their fleets! Not to mention modern HIMARS carry an air defense system AND a counter electronics system.
For sure they will not be hitting a lot of HIMARS systems hiding away on the fourth floor of an office block peeking out the window. If that's how Russia think the HIMARS operates then they will not be hitting any even if Ukraine rolled them through the streets of Moscow!
So basically you were like gypsies.
@@mickelodiansurname9578 well according to the Russians they have destroyed 6 Himars already so realistically the threat is pretty much over. Then again, when Russia says they have taken out anything it probably means they haven't got a clue where they are or how to take them out. I hope HIMARS brings us a lot more joy. Give the Ukrainians all the units they can handle and allow them to target Mamma Russia and the war will be over soon
Yep, that's still sop. We have analog and digital in both the mobile and primary. The stuff isn't so bad to pack up, they designed it to be easy.
We also saw some HILARIOUSLY bad "precision" strikes.
I saw a photo of a _fixed_ SAM site where the cruise, ballistic and artillery shots were _precise_ (meaning right groupings of the individual weapons types) but garbage accuracy, where they were all 100s of meters out.
And the site was completely untouched.
I imagine the staff at the site wide eyed as very expensive weapons destroy unploughed farmers fields across the way.
on some level I wonder whether russian crews were just not very willing to fire on ukrainian targets , ik at least some small number at minimum will have had friends or family across borders
@@Marcusjnmc
One can only hope
@@Marcusjnmc Even if that's the case, militaries are designed to take away an individual's accountability for killing.
That's why units exist. In an anti-aircraft unit, you're not killing an enemy pilot, the SAM that you're feeding targetting data to is the one killing an enemy pilot. In a squad, you're not trying to kill an enemy soldier, you're protecting your friends. In a tank, you're not killing the enemy, you're just driving the tank, or loading the gun, or aiming the gun.
That way, even if you feel guilt about fighting, you will still continue to fight.
@@aaroncabatingan5238 that's the idea , that said , if I was ordered to invade a neighbouring country tomorrow, none of that simplification would work on me, I have friends in all of them , & none of them are aggressive states, I wouldn't be able to ignore that reality.
@@Marcusjnmc + the others interested: When I was in the Kosovo war (on the Serbian side), we all, because at a time (1999.) we had Internet, all data, missiles, movies, etc. were informed about GPS, triangulation, HARMS, Tomahawks, etc. There was even a story that pilots and cruise Missile operators, probably don't want to hit intended targets, because they think it is the wrong war. For most of us, on the field, it was incredible, that one such "war machinery", with all sensors, satellites, and 19 advanced countries, day by day misses everything military, that is so clearly visible... Even long after the war, for us was strange that the misses were unintentional, and that great effort was made to find and destroy targets... Only when I read all the different reports type of "Lessons learned..." from NATO analyses of aftermath, finally I accepted, that there was no intention to miss, but to destroy all of us on the ground... in any case, it was fun to watch.. ;)
This was masterful, mate! Well done! I’m a personal trainer from Sydney who stumbled across your videos one day, now I am learning an insane amount about military planning and procurement, so much goes into having a war! I never appreciated it before.
I’m at about 20 videos so far, it’s a lot to take if you’ve never heard this kind of talk before. Lots of lingo and names to look up. I’m so appreciative you’re doing this. All of them have been mind blowing, but this one was a total masterclass. Superb job dude. You’re excellent at your job 💪🏻
I had the same experience though I'm not from Australia but Finland. Would just like to mention the also Australian military matters channel Hypohystericalhistory that I found about the same time as Perun. It's absolutely splendid but has not had the same kind of growth, so I wholeheartedly recommend checking it out!
@@simonjern5325 hypohystericalhistory is so underrated!
"Precision" Russian weapons has nothing on US precision where we can remove the explosives of a missile, attach swords to that missile, and then fly that missile into 1 person drinking tea on his porch in Kabul.
granted - there is no known Russian equivalent to the R9X.
That would be the biggest flex in the world
He was killed by a sword...from 200 miles away
and keep in mind the fact the US had an armed drone flying over Afghanistan uncontested, a country it no longer has a military presence in. And pulled the trigger from halfway around the globe. These are the kinds of capabilities Russia can only dream of.
R9X is just plain crazy.
@@nothingtoseeheremovealong598 no, it is not. Expensive nonsense, it needs 2 - 3 missiles minimum where 1 would suffice. The blades are only ~ 50 cm wide and the missile travels at 250 m/s so you simply need more aimed at a single person.
I would like to just personally and honestly thank you for bringing such a wealth of thorough, cited, and digestible content to YT.
Typically, content of this caliber hides behind a pay wall, and you're an absolute gem for bringing it to mouth-breathers like me.
Totally agree. The professionalism that he exhibits by admitting freely where the limits of both his expertise and information is something not seen with most mainstream media outlets.
Another brilliant episode.
"ISR is central" - I have no doubt that ISR will prove to be one of the most critical factors in determining the final outcome of this conflict.
Of lessons to be learnt - this ranks highly.
What?
@@WerZel ISR = Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance --- the ability to find and confirm targets before facts on the ground changes like the enemy moving its weapon storage from a building that is targeted by your army. Ukraine has a superiority because they have access to NATO intelligence and have their own friendly population in the Ruzzian occupied areas to rely on for human intel about Ruzzian targets.
"You might miss, but probably not by that much."
The person living in the house 100m from the targeted factory: "I feel like they missed by a distance that WAS pretty significant!"
I know its a good day when I catch a video from this channel mere minutes after launch. The relatively neutral and objective stance is quite heartening to experience consistently, given the amount of metaphorical gunk everywhere surrounding the conflict.
Agreed 100% thanks for posting !!
Slava Ukraine !!
I'm loving your content. For someone like me - who is a total noob in military area and who really never even considered it with a pacifist mindset - this is such clear swipe across the substance of the various issues you talk about. It feels like people are hurling facts, opinions, propaganda, etc. in all directions and this just makes sense. Thank from the bottom of my heart for providing this and making the world a more educated, better place. If you're gonna blow up on TH-cam, it's only well deserved. Love from Czechia!
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
There are always those who will believe it is their right to take everything. Thus, it is no irony that peace can only exist when there are others who are willing to fight to defend it.
I can confirm that "Victory through Air Power" is NOT on Disney+.
That's a genuine shame.
I am a Ukrainian (albeit living in Canada now), and I must say this is my favourite source of analysis of the war, along with Yuri Shvets, a 69 year old former KGB spy in the US.
I just love your videos.
Ah thanks for that recommendation, i'll check him out as well.
Does he have an english channel?
you accidentally put "Shvets" and "analysis" into one sentence.
@@baronvonlimbourgh1716 he a cheap biden-pusher -- total waste of time
9/10 of doctors recommend new Perun uploads as a cure to boredom
Kalibr isn't being used to hit moving targets?
They're still struggling to hit stationary targets.
Thank you for continuing to make content that is genuinely enjoyable to listen to and watch. It's refreshing to hear someone work through these complicated topics in a well thought out, researched, and non-biases way. Keep up the great work!
Note that is has ALWAYS been the case that munitions production has NEVER kept up with demand in the early years of a war. It took 2-3 years for it to catch up in WW1 and WW2. And peacetime stockpiles are also NEVER enough for wartime use, they get drained pretty fast.
Sanctions won't take Russia far
So I will give 8 years to restore Caliber, and if the war drags on for a year, then 9 years
Great content indeed. Not always that easy to come by such content, concerning the military secrecy and embargo of sharing these kind of analysis. There are shorter reviews and other fringe content makers around, but they lack mostly the university level or scientific approach to the issues Perun are covering.
Hello Perun, Thank you for the much appreciated video. I feel taiwan deserve some of your attention, as It is a evolving situation with a possible exploding consequence. Could you consider this subject as your next video, that would be very appreciated. Thank you
Agreed Taiwan and maybe China need a video while they're hot in the news🔥 🥵
That's gonna be a good bump for the channel.
Eh, it's mostly saber rattling. Taiwan produces half of the world's semiconductors (chips) and China is highly unlikely to invade a country that would cripple it's own tech manufacturing sector. Plus, any invasion of Taiwan would have to be amphibious and amphibious operations against Taiwan would require the buildup of hundreds of boats/ships and aircraft. i.e. not something that can just be explained away like a land buildup would be. Unlike Russia, China is more than willing and capable (economically and militarily) to play the long game and arguably it's actually in their advantage to wait longer and longer before they make their move (to build up their forces and training/experience to be a serious deterrent to US intervention). Their current buildup plan is to be in that position by 2035, so I don't see them making a serious move before then.
@@3rdrevant There’s a lot of debate on this subject. The best information I’ve seen suggests that China WAS considering an attack on Taiwan much sooner than that but have been doing a serious rethink since the Ukraine invasion began. Also, I imagine the prospect of a severely weakened Russia might appeal to China. China can’t make up all the difference in access where western technology is concerned, but I could see how they might be keen on offering up a chunk to Russia in return for, say, inexpensive access to Siberian oil & gas. China doesn’t produce much of either on their own & it’s currently heavily dependent on Middle-Eastern oil that has to traverse the Straights of Malacca, a very vulnerable choke point. They’ve also got tendrils snaking out into Eastern Europe via Belt & Road but that’s also a very long, very expensive, & very vulnerable project. Siberia is basically right next door. And Russia does like to barter…
@@grahamstrouse1165 What inexpensive access to Siberian oil and gas? What pipelines go from Siberia to E. Asia? What is their carrying capacity? Those are rhetorical questions. The answers are 1 and very low capacity due to its age. (This is why India and China are not able to do much to shore up the Russian economy.)
I don’t know what sort of energy stockpiles China has, but if there was an oil embargo, they would run out sooner or later.
The Chinese reaction to the Pelosi visit was an escalation of an aggressive escalation about a year and a half ago. This activity has been going on for some time, probably as a reaction to Joe Biden being elected.
The Chinese activity around Taiwan falls under “more of the same”. There’s an increased chance of some sort of incident, but this isn’t a prelude to immediate war.
@@3rdrevant I wonder how that plan will go. China is already experiencing economic troubles and I expect the recent saber rattling to spur western countries into faster decoupling of their economies from China. I think these threats against Taiwan are the worst mistake that Xi has ever made. It will probably cost China dearly.
The defense economics video was so refreshing, especially given the context of current year. I appreciate that you touched on it a bit in this video when it came to cost and employment. It may be that you can roll in the economic studies where they are contextually pertinent more often and make everyone happy. Keep doing what you are doing.
What surprised me (and seems obvious now) was the description of how a significant percentage of military procurement money makes it back to the government in the form of tax revenues.
19:27 - As a Bulgarian I am ashamed of my government that is refusing to publicly support Ukraine with weapons and ammo while instead is selling it to other NATO members such as Poland who are officially giving it to Ukraine for free. I am sorry ...
Its the best way for your country to go! russia needs no excuses to be a bully! Poland will kick their arse!
Don't be sorry.
Your government is doing the right thing, while being careful about the political optics of it, in order to minimize your suffering from potential repercussions.
Yes, it could be better.
But Bulgaria is not really a match for Russia, when it comes to economic or military power.
I'm glad your government is doing what it can, despite also doing what it must.
It could be WAY worse! ;)
(aka Hungary)
Same here, we could have provided Tochka systems or rockets early in the war and buy newer systems, or provide older export S-300s in exchange for Patriots. We also have bunch of Soviet era jets and it is unknown whether we ever asked to suplly some of as Macedonia recently did (but there are some clues of parts appearing in Ukraine for planes which only we had). We have a lot of political issues, mostly coming from the amount of pro-Russian support among citizens, which is high, plus the populists use the topic extensively, similar to the way Orban does, or even going anogher length by waving the anti-NATO flags.
Probably corrupt politicians desperate to save their own skins in case Russia wins & reoccupies Bulgaria.
@@scottyfox6376
That makes no sense.
Putin would have to go through Ukraine Moldova, and Romania before getting to Bulgaria.
And his force is already greatly reduced.
Economic dependence on gas prices is MUCH more sensible.
Putin wouldn't kick the politicians out, but the people would do it for him if the economy collapsed and people froze to death in their homes.
I pay more attention to your presentations than my university lectures.
you're likely not going to have many (if any) professors who are this good. I spent 11 years in undergrad and accumulated over 290 units. None of my profs were this good.
The humor resetting your focus really helps. Perun knows the right tempo to insert a joke for a laugh at the absurdity of reality. No classmates asking questions every 5 minutes is also a plus.
I get a rush of excitement for these videos, the little details that can be simply overlooked by an observer are identified and crucial factors that drives any war machine. Brilliant stuff.
Topic suggestion for Perun: How about you do a meta-article, about which available sources you use the most, which you consider most up-to-date, and how do you assess the reliability of different sources?
Episode idea: Since Steven Seagal is in Ukraine, maybe a video analyzing if Russian logistics are capable of maintaining his current level of obesity
Seems unlikely. They don't have enough trucks.
Ain't Seagal in Russia?
@@oneshothunter9877 Several months ago, he visited a POW full of Ukrainian prisoners that burned down in occupied Ukraine, and claimed there was proof it was destroyed by a Himars missile.
@@TalkernateHistory
Ok.
Well, now I know where he is, I guess.
I didn't know guy was some kind of an expert about Himars effects, though. Did he learn all that while making Movies in Hollywood? 😉
Some observations from inside - there are much less air raids sirens happening. There was days like 5-7 days without attacks
Awesome!
well, it depends where, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv are like 5-7 rockets daily
@@polinaporechna2008 true - they can hit frontline towns with unguided rocket artillery :(
Top quality information for free by a single man. I love modern times
Friend, I just love your long, detailed, and somehow both passionate/dispassionate videos and keen analyses. My husband and I have watched all of them as released over the course of the war since the broader invasion. I am a combat veteran of the US Army, discharged when I received a nasty bit of shrapnel in my spine in Iraq. My husband is a senior financial officer in corporate America and seems to have maybe have an education and career similar to your own, so we both get different things from these videos and love discussing them further.
I am glad you are getting advertising support and hopefully, donations. Great work!
Once again, your analysis is flawless and prophetic. I might add, 6 additional points regarding Russian missile production. 1. Shortages of skilled labor resulting from exodus of educated citizens from Russia. 2. Shortages of skilled labor resulting from drawing replacements for military service. 3. Strikes and work slowdowns resulting from pay levels attrited by inflation. 4. Sabotage and passive resistance from workers opposed to the war. 5. Substandard quality control of production resulting from traditional corruption by apparatchiks in the military-industrial system. 6. Parallel production exigencies in the road, rail, and air linkages of the entire production infrastructure. Last, but not least, 1 looming geopolitical point, The need for a strategic reserve of missiles to deter the PRC. The CCP has been humiliated over the recent failure of its Taiwan bluff and is desperate for a face-saving gambit Moscow is well aware of China’s longstanding ax to grind with Russia regarding Manchuria and China has recently begun conducting combined arms military exercised along the Ussuri river in the Khabarovsk and Primorsky Regions.
In my opinion, China's threats about Taiwan are more about politics than anything else. In the USA, there are certain subjects that come up every election (guns, abortion, immigration for example) and these allow politicians on both sides to assert their position to their bases and motivate their base to go out and vote.) The politicians don't want to, "can't," or just never get around to addressing the issue, but next election will reassert the campaign points to motivate an election base. China, is not in military position to take Taiwan, but political leaders are in a position to talk about Taiwan in order to motivate their political base.
@@cryptickcryptick2241 In the upcoming US Congressional elections, US voters will have choices regarding US domestic and international policy and the expectation is the changes will be substantial. In the PRC, the CCP's war drums over the Republic of China are designed to distract the PRC's citizens from the real issues facing them and force them into a state of martial law. There are no elections to influence PRC policy, only infighting among the small cabal of self-serving members of the CCP's 20th National Congress. While they may replace Xi Jinping, the Chinese people have no say in the matter and there certainly is no equivalency between the PRC and the US Constitutional Republic.
You are utterly delusional and your point about PRC picking a fight with Russia because its smarting about Taiwan is icing on the cake. No wonder why you are impressed with Perun who is nothing more than a gamer with no military exp at all. You should get a job in policy or analysis at the Pentagon, sounds like you'd fit right in.
@@cryptickcryptick2241 Yes. In China that is clearly a cover up for they internal issues. So rather unlikely, especially as by all estimations. Chinese are not even ready to do that.
Ah, there it is - my Sunday indulgence! Thanks Perun!
Each week’s analysis just tells me that much more that NATO would wipe the floor with Russia if it wasn’t for their nuke stockpile… As an effective modern military, Russia is currently a joke.
I don't comment too often, but I want to say that it's been an absolute joy finding this channel with informative, in-depth content in an ocean of clickbait garbage "journalism" about military procurement and Ukraine. And since you mention it often, I would encourage you to cast aside the TH-cam analytics from time to time. It will only optimize your channel to become like every other: fast, shallow content of which there is already enough. Your niche is valuable even if it forever remains a niche.
I personally found out about your videos not because it popped up in the recommendations determined by TH-cam's algorithm, but because it was shared in in online wargaming groups as a good analysis and it stood out as one of the better pieces.
Just for people to keep in mind what a less than 5 missiles per day production means using a previous war for context. In 1944 after D-day, with a failing economy, Germany was producing and sending on average about 80 V1 rockets per day towards London, until all the missile launch sites in range were captured. After that they where still sending over a dozen missiles per day into target cities in continental Europe.
Not denying that Russia is screwing up, but taking into account both the increased complexity of modern missiles and capability of manufacturing equipment, how much should the proportionate production be?
Its less about increased net complexity, and more about complexity compared to the capabilities of the time.
V1s had jet engines and sensitive gyroscopic stabilization devices, and mechanical guidance compuiters.
Cutting edge high technology by the atandards of 1944.
I dont think they were significantly less reaource intensive to produce than a modern satellite guided missile.
You forget to mention that this was only possible thanks to a massive slave army of 15 million people kidnapped from all over Europe and forced to work to death. It was possibly the largest slave force in human history. At its peak the forced labourers constituted 20% of the German work force.
@@HeliosLegion Quiet irrelevant to the point being discussed.
@@egoalter1276 Yes HeliosLegion seems to think that building a high tech machine such as a V1 or V2 (at that time) can be done by unskilled labour if you just throw enough at it ^^.
The R-7 took just under 24 hrs to ready for launch and required a space program launch facility to operate. It was not a viable weapon, but rather a scarecrow for the West.
Atlas wasn't exactly quick-launch either. The fact they were building these things in the 50s (on both sides of the Atlantic) remains incredibly impressive to me given the tools and technology available.
24 hours puts it already about on par with jet bombers, and that's the earliest iteration of these missiles. If not an overwhelmingly existential threat, the R7 was a sign of things to come.
So it was primarily a first strike weapon i guess? i wonder how long they could keep in on the pad
@@testaccount4191 well that's one of the reasons why Missile Silos were eventually made and exist. Keeps the missiles protected, gives you a place to have them stored in a constant state of readiness, and gives you a place to contain them if they suffer a malfunction or failure on the pad.
@@barrag3463 depends on the propellant system. If I recall correctly, some liquid fuelled rockets in silos had to have the silo opened and exposed for fuel trucks to prepare the missile for launch, which could take tens of minutes to hours and made it vulnerable. That's one of the reasons others rocket systems used solid propellant, since they could launch immediately.
A series of videos like these analyzing of Taiwan and China capabilities and status would be interesting.
What do we know about China (military, logistics, resources, allies, economics, etc.)?
What do we know about Taiwan (military, logistics, resources, allies, economics, etc.)?
What can we learn from Ukraine that might apply to Taiwan, or what might be different given the naval aspects?
Etc.
China is even more difficult to measure than Russia. Both don't publish accurate numbers, so there's significant propoganda, but unlike Russo-Ukraine war, there's no real world numbers to compare against.
In addition China's military has been undergoing a massive modernisation program so there's no real world Chinese military experience for their new weapon systems and battle doctrine. Battle plans are the first casualty in contact with the enemy, though there's a pithy-er way of saying that. The only small engagements I'm aware of the modern Chinese military has engaged in is border conflicts with India where units on both sides are obligated by agreement from both sides from using rifles. Indian and Chinese soldiers are literally going into a remote mountain. valley to fight each other hand to hand.
I would agree that would be interesting but if I had my druthers I'd prefer the focus remain Ukraine for now.
@@granatmof “Man plans, God laughs” isn’t specifically about war like the “surviving contact with the enemy” saying, but it’s the most concise.
@@MarcosElMalo2 "Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth", - Mike Tyson
Yes, it would be "interesting", but the Ukraine war suggests Taiwan would probably prevail due to defender's advantage, a united and defiant populace, and access to state of the art weapons. Then add what is historically the most difficult military objective to pull off, a naval invasion.
Love the bit about firing a supersonic missile from a supersonic aircraft being how you design a hypersonic missile without designing a hypersonic missile. This is seriously what doesn't get reported when most media covers hypersonics
Perun, thank you so much for all the hard work that goes into these lectures. They have become a regular part of my Sunday nights at work while I work on my excels. Keep up the fantastic and highly informative work!
No doubt, one of the best channels on YT!
cheers!
I'd love to see a video analysing the impact of the war on Russia's foreign arms sales. I can assume they have stopped making new deals for now, but have they stopped exporting for commitments signed before the war? what about spare parts export? or the impact of sanctions on manufacturing some of the more high-tech stuff?
As always a big fan, no one else provides such in-depth strategic analysis like you do.
Good question I second that. I wonder how many countries are still looking at purchasing Russian arms after this shit show or if sales are dropping
The place to look is India, which is highly dependent on Soviet and then Russian arms suppliers. Supposedly Russia is complying with existing contracts, but they would say that.
Over the last decade the dependency has reduced, though it remains significant. Also, shit show is not the only criteria of buying weapons. Maintenance, familiarity, military doctrine, cost, license to build in a different country are all key factors. Russia is taking heavy losses, but the idea of throwing everything an the kitchen sink is working in the east (so far). Having precision weapons isn't exactly very effective if your "friend" gives you only 12 of them and that too not the best kind. For the sake of Ukraine, I hope they get more help but by the time the aid arrives, so would winter and then the Russians would probably get a chance to bed in and reset.
When we see high tech Russian equipment, first and foremost it is intended for overseas sales to generate not just profits, but international prestige. The domestic Russian forces often only receive the mundane equipment. This theory has now been proven accurate by observations since the invasion of Ukraine.
Check out PERUN youtuber for clear and concise investigation on that topic
I really love the format: a deep and detailed presentation without losing the overall picture on a hot topic. Raising up issues from doctrine to product specifications to production to economics to operation. There are many classical engineering problems presented in practice. Every essay gives new information and brings us closer to a solution to how this conflict could end. You give bold predictions of the future that can be and are being verified. There are some absolute gems such as the video about corruption, Russian infantry shortage, and sending their best myth. Although, there are some videos that feel more like circling around the topic, and sometimes I fear that you are running out of good topics or knowledge. I was glad that this essay was great and I loved every minute of it. I'm not sure what made this episode work, but I hope you can keep doing it.
PS a topic suggestion about a thing which I'm worried about: The war on energy, how "cold" will be the next winter, what kind of claims have been made, how much has been done for the claims, are there Russian moles within the industry, how long it takes for Europe needs to do to win the war and how Russia could counter the threads.
Very interesting, as usual. And, if possible, even more impressive in the amount of research and analysis involved than usual. I learned so much from this - much of it stuff I didn't even know I didn't know! I love the way your videos challenge the way I think and expose the laziness of my assumptions and preconceptions. It's like being back at school - but a lot more satisfying!
I know very little about these topics (although a lot more than I used to!), so I can't comment on any specifics. But on a general point, these videos are so interesting and educational that I'm really glad you make them. So please carry on doing so! Thank you for the amazing quality (and frequency!) of what you do.
He was wrong about the civilians though. They are defiantly being targeted by the russian forces.
Your channel is awesome. I love how you deliver a huge amount of information and don't dumb it down. Please keep up the good work.
Great work. Must see content on YT for those interested in Ukraine war and military procurement and strategy. You correctly point out key of intelligence and targeting. For a future topic, please consider satellite capabilities on both sides in the Ukraine war and their relative strengths and vulnerability. Thanks again for balanced and thoughtful analysis.
Ukraine’s access to Western ELINT & AWACS data has been very, very valuable.
Very much worth reviewing an excellent video by the Japanese Public Broadcaster on this subject, i.e cloud cover is less of an issue than it once was
Ukraine: The New Satellite War - Digital Eye
th-cam.com/video/ahbnVYro1G8/w-d-xo.html
Just in case the comment including the link does not get thru censorship
Very much worth reviewing an excellent video by the Japanese Public Broadcaster on this subject, i.e cloud cover is less of an issue than it once was
Ukraine: The New Satellite War - Digital Eye
It's amazing that I have attention deficit problems but remain focused on 1 hour long power point presentation about missiles.
As always, absolutely platinum level analysis. Intelligent, deep, thorough, and well-delivered. If you're not a public speaker, you should be.
Had to laugh at the guy who said he hoped Russia hit his apartment with a missile so he could claim to his insurer that the Russian military valued his apartment at millions of dollars.
Good video as always, Perun.
So here i am, sad, looking for something to watch, when Perun uploads an hour video.
You complete me. Thank you.
Guess what: They don't have the money to sustain a daily use of ballistic missiles.
Back in 1995 a close relative of mine was part of a NATO mission to Russia in order to build the framework for further disarmament after the fall of the Soviet Union. That relative inadvertently left the dossier(It was classified, but someone at Military Intelligence just forgot to mark it as. such. It happens) So, I read it. Several times over, in fact. I was aghast at how many working rocket engines the Russians had and how few of them had been attached to operational missiles. In the years that followed, Russia made a killing out of selling those rocket engines(The Topol-4 was the most capable rocket powered vehicle in the world for 50 years until Space X managed to improve on their design) to basically everyone. Guidance systems were good, but nothing like their Western counterparts. Also, those syatems have quite a long learning curve for a mostly drafted armed forces, so they don't have enough people to operate but a fraction of their total arsenal
In short: Russian ingenuity tends checks their economy can't cash.
1995 is a different time from 2004+, entirely different! 27 years have passed by now! While shadows of those issues linger, don't count on making predictions based on such an outdated intel.
That being said, i do hope you're right.
@@SianaGearz It's just a matter of money and maintenance capabilities. I suspect that given the fact they have resorted to 1970s ballistic missiles instead of using their vaunted more modern ones is a sign of their true capabilities. Back in 1995, Russia's weapons stockpile was so huge the government didn't even know how big it was. And that was after the Red Army was broken up in republics. That's why the Russian Army is lobbing artillery like it's going out of style: It has literally millions of rounds in storage and artillery pieces going all the way back to WWII(SU-152s have been sighted several times over alongside more modern artillery) and Soviet-era ballistic missiles. Their doctrine was to overwhelm any missile defense system NATO could field and destroy their most valuable assets. But the good stuff? At a more than $2 million a pop, they have precious few of those.
Once again I want to thank you for the powerpoint. Imagine something as dry as missile capabilities and history combined with production logistics being so interesting
Ukraine has been getting better at intercepting Russia's long range missiles like Kalibr as the war drags on. SO even if Russia starts relying more upon these missiles, their hit rates may continue to get incrementally worse.
Yeah - It intercepts them with military supply depots.
@@mrsiamesecat9219 Hahaha....good one! 😀😀😀😀
You can bet that NATO nations have been *very* interested in the data and learnings of this.
i sure hope so
No, they have not, if we believed what Ukraine say they have shoot down more missiles then Russia have used...
just to add another soviet scientist name into contribution towards aerospace:
Pyotr Ufimtsev
His 1962 paper "Method of Edge Waves in the Physical Theory of Diffraction" was studied by the Lockheed SKunk Works division engineers and incorporated into design of the F-117.
he has since immigrated to US and is a professor of electrical engineering at UCLA
Exceptionally professional and well sourced, as always. Per your close-out comments, I also greatly appreciated your previous lecture on the overall structure of the military industrial complex.
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As an empiricist, I have been watching the chatter saying "the Russians will be running out of missiles and artillery any day" and seeing that they haven't. Your presentation today provides a nice perspective with backup . . . or as good of a backup as is possible given sourcing!!
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Please keep on with your efforts. Best regards!!
love the videos man, im sure you put alot of work into them and they definitely help get a clear picture of the situation you can't find often.
Excellent content as always! Just a thought for a potential topic: An analysts on the Chinese PLA (like the Bundeswehr video). The Taiwan 🇹🇼 topic has been prevalent recently
Thanks m8!
I suspect he won't do Taiwan as it is too related to the Australian defense strategy. And he is somehow connected to that.
""Precision strike weapons"", like how they're using S300 SAMs as artillery now
I still think firing KH-22s is worse
@@PerunAU You should really be proud of this content. I’ve never seen so many comments from people waiting for a video to drop.
@@PerunAU Have we seen the Syrian Barrel Bomb manufactures that were reported to have been recruited?
Because we know Russia's fucked if those guys start working for them.
@@PerunAU anti ship missiles being used against ground targets.....yeah that's going to be inaccurate. Lots of clutter on the ground, not so much out at sea against naval targets
Wow, they're really doing that? Tha doesn't sound good
Great content, I started following you when you had 59k views on your first video. Nice to see someone doing well providing education.
Please continue the indepth econ lense View. I found your videos to be very refreshing an illuminating. Not only on this specific video but also your methodology seems to be proper when it comes to utilizing different sources and giving the right context to the information. Please keep up the good work
My thoughts after watching you for a while are: how the hell do any countries plan to fight a long war with their current stocks and production capacities?
Except for America and poorer countries for whom military hardware means an AK and a Toyota Pickup, they generally don't. Most countries have been relying on the fact that mutually assured destruction and American hegemony will generally prevent external invasions from occurring. Mostly they have been correct.
Most countries dont have that extensive capability to produce such expensive weapons, nor do the countries they have to face possess the kind of massive industry required for such saturation strikes. Russia is notable because it has a massive stockpile of missiles, but its also firing at a country that had relatively modern air defenses and air force. Usually this is augmented by an air force, but the Russian air force is pretty bad at that strike role, so missiles it is.
The US only has to worry about Russia, China, and India to run into the problem of having more targets than it has precision missiles. This is why it also has a massive air force and naval aviation wing to service such targets.
We don't. If I remember correctly, we were supposed to hold the line in West Germany for 48 hours during the Cold War against the might of the Warsaw Pact hordes. 48 hours and then either negotiations or nuclear annihilation would happen. After the cold war, it was all about counterinsurgency and expeditionary capabilities, which is warfare on an entirely different scale.
I think the answer is most countries normally only use surface to surface missiles on anti aircraft systems. Otherwise they use fighters.
For the longest time the answer to that question was: they didn't, no one expected that a future conflict among major powers would be of any significant length, if one would occur at all.
Gwynne Dyer, a Canadian military historian and former naval officer, made an interesting and rather prescient comment in his 1983 book "War". He postulated that any upcoming major conflict would be a "come as you are war" due to the cost, complexity and long build-times of most modern military weapons systems. If you get into a scrap, you've got what's already deployed and what's in the cupboard. I suspect that he's just as surprised - and pleased - as the rest of us that the Russians have mired themselves in such a conflict.
Oh hell yeah, our lord and saviour has blessed his children with another hour long slide show.
And I genuinely couldnt be happier.
These lecture-style videos on hardcore topics like supply and economics are awesome. There is a lack of this type of content because of perceived lack of engagement, however I think it largely has to do with lecture organization and delivery. I definitely saw one of your shorter videos first but that really didn’t catch my attention until I got another one of your longer videos recommended and those are all brilliant.
I think you should adapt the Drachinifel model (Gun Jesus has a similar model), he has a healthy mix of shorter videos on a particular ship as well as longer lecture style videos on a particular topic (anything from battle analysis to economics/construction) and very long seminar style q&a videos.
Edit: Once you have enough content built up I think you should also consider doing an actual lecture series with something like the great courses, I think that you will be highly liked as a lecturer.
I would truly enjoy a work on intelligence and command and control in the Ukrainian conflict. You do great work and truly look forward to your presentations.
I thoroughly enjoyed this breakdown of the missile systems. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Russian missiles going forward assuming this war drags on as long as I suspect that it will. If I had to guess Ukraine will continue to be supported by the western powers so I'd guess their numbers will all come from outside the country. Thank you!
Probably why Russia closes the gas supply, food supply etc.
Russia has the economy size of Germany before the war. It will run out of missiles and Ukraine will have the most modern Nato equipment.. how do you think the outcome will be? Another reasons why Russia doesn't care about accuracy, they just try to kill everybody.
@@Google_Does_Evil_Now The gas they provided to the EU is rapidly being replaced, and they don't sell much food to anyone supplying Ukraine, it's mainly Africa and Asia that buy food from the orks.
@@Google_Does_Evil_Now gas supply, maybe. Though russia money mostly comes from Europe. With lower income, russia will be unable to import.
Food supply, i doubt: european countries and the USA are self sufficient and even exporters. Only some countries in Africa like Egypt are threaten, and they are not really helping Ukraine to start with.
Thanks for another great video! One of my favorite parts is about the headlines like "omg Russia deploys nuclear-capable X", it's so accurate 😂Actually it's an endless clickbait news piece source, X country deploys nuclear-capable Y, like UK, France, Germany, Finland.. Almost all multirole fighters can carry tactical nukes (F18, Tornado.. pretty sure Gripens too with little modification), a lot of the land attack missiles are dual use too. Hell, even used to have AA missiles with nuclear warheads back in the day we thought everything should have a nuke in it. Also yes, the economics of the war is an underrated and understudied aspect at this point, especially given it's importance and was the reason that got me subscribed so please don't stop doing them altogether, a well rounded take on the war is a good thing imo.
Stupidity of the Facebook generation never stops to amaze me...
Best part of Sundays nowadays is that we get another new powerpoint slide. Something to wait for the whole week.
And again! Another fantastic analysis on the subject that has been sort-of-miss-analyzed-elsewhere.
Great video!
The informative nature of your video's keep me coming back and the humor sprinkled within keeps me engaged. Thanks, please keep the coming.
this is about the only type of 1 hour video that I can watch.
Well done Perun
I just spent another hour listening to a lecture about military economics on my time off. And I ain't regreting anything.
Of all the channels that do Ukraine videos yours are the ones with the most research behind them and I've been waiting for the video to drop all day.
I'm wondering if you could do a video on Taiwan's military situation as well down the pipeline as any conflict there would not only impact that small islands economy but most probably the global economy at a large scale as well.
Keep up the great work mate and I'll be waiting for the next one.
From a fellow Aussie living on the other side of the globe.
I would like to thank you for bringing me up to date on the general military status of the conflict, and also on how things work from the bottom up.
The months that have passed since I found your channel by accident have truly been blessed by your well thought out and produced slide show. It is a perfect format for someone like me with a burnt out mind.
It is also clear that I'm not the only one out here that thinks this format presented by you is great.
Keep up the awesome work and fuel up our brain cells with some more military/economy facts!
Terrific content. As an Australian, I would be delighted when time permits, if you could contrast the Russian doctrine of building out missile forces, as compared to buying long range submarines. Surely it would be faster, cheaper, as well as significantly easier from a political perspective, for Australia to build a missile force that could hold any threat far off Australia, rather than acquire nuclear submarines? If what Australia wants, is the ability to threaten the Chinese mainland (why they would want to do that is another issue), then again, building an ICBM force, even with conventional warheads, would have to be so much cheaper and faster than nuclear submarines. These ICBMs have thousands of kilometers to hide in within Australia’s north, compared to the shallow waters of the South China Sea.
submarines and icbms have a bit of a different use though. submarines are for taking out enemy shipping, intel gathering, and loitering around making even safe waters dangerous, and are a great show of force in times of relative peace, while missiles unless you're holding grand parades every year, just don't do that but I kind of see your argument
Why they would want to do that? Simple reason. Being able to make Pooh have some skin in the game if he gets frisky, as opposed to just sinking ships he won't miss, is a good start.
Submarines also have stand-off weapons plus do all things mentioned below. Its about control first, strikes when needed.
Youre asking a gamer for his opinion on strategic defence matters he has no experience in? LOL
@@Internetbutthurt Use your brains - he is not just a gamer - you can tell his day job involves this stuff.....plus listen to the content - its very detailed and well argued - irrespective of the day job the argument stands on its own merits. Thats what discussion is all about!
Always the most well informed and well thought out information available on the topics you discuss. Have you considered pivoting a bit to China/Taiwan considerations? I would really love to hear your analysis of that theater.
Also have a look at the actions and propaganda of the Palestinians, and their motivation to step things up a gear. It's almost like they are trying to fight for space in the clickoverse to reduce the impact of orc bad news on the information war in Ukraine.
I second that sentiment. It's very unclear what the possibilities are for that hypothetical conflict, at least it is in the current analysis available in mass media. I started doing patreon (to Perun) just so I can have a say in pointing him in that direction.
I'd rather he remain focused on one geographical area and conflict. Peruns strength is " specializing "
@@TheMormonPower Did you join the patreon to counterbalance those who want him focused in other directions?
@@TheMormonPower his knowledge is global. Analyzing the economics of the defense of any nation is done in a global context. The players are other nations, the suppliers are multinationals, the long term goals are international. You can't be a competent defense economist and only know about one region and Perun is clearly extremely competent.
Time for my weekly military lecture :)
Perun, sort of a huge fan of your content buddy, this kind of thing is not easy or quick to tabulate nor is it simple to project on a 1 hour video for us all to enjoy while eating popcorn (lul). I noticed you mentioned some of the information sites I use frequently almost everyday, UKDJ being a big one next to WARZONE the DRIVE. My question is, do you have a short list of outlet sites that you use that I could add to my daily morning patrol around the internet? I'd be most gracious and again I just want to give you the thanks and credit you deserve. I sincerely hope you do well and with your content I can see that happening quickly. Thankyou 🙂
Again, outstanding analysis. You are rapidly becoming the go to channel for those who want an honest, as-unbiased as possible/nuanced and in depth view on things based on what must be hours - if not days - of research. Thank you so much for making this desperately needed content and clearkly putting so much effort into it.
Though it may not be entirely in the scope of how you intent to develop the channel, but I'm very much interested in your thoughts on what western allies can do to persuade or seduce Russia back to the negotiating table (and which pittfalls to avoid while doing so) and in what state the situation on the ground has got to be, before both Ukraine and Russia will see either the need or desirability of a negotiated peace (of sorts). The reason I'm asking is: A. precisely because the amount of thought you put in each and every analysis and B. because I fear we're nearing a dangerous point where either Ukraine is left a burning ruin or Putin risks of being so humiliated, that tactical nuclear missiles could become a last ditch means of avoiding just that.
Safe travels and good luck with the channel!
Cheers from the Netherlands.
3:40
Victory Through Air Power is an amazing movie. It's not just a propaganda movie. It actually advocates a radically different strategy than what the allies actually used. It would have been fascinating to see who WW2 developed if that strategy had been tried.
(I don't think it would have worked very well - nukes might have bailed it out but Seversky didn't know about those)
They kinda did though. I mean you can't tell me they didn't bomb the heck out of the industrial centers and logistics infrastructure in ww2 with air power.
@@First-Last_name VAP advocated strategic bombing while using ground forces almost purely for defending existing lines. If you followed VAP's strategy there'd be no North Africa campaign, no Italian invasion, no D-Day until Germany was defenseless. Japan would be bombed with bombers similar to the B-36 operating out of Alaskan air bases.
It would have been a VERY different WW2!
@@ComradeArthur So they saved it for mainland Japan, which was pretty much on fire most of the war. White phosphorous was discovered by accident during the Japanese bombing campaign.
@@wom_Bat White phosphorous had been in military use for decades by WW2, and was a fairly common munition during the war.
@@ComradeArthur The idea of basing large numbers of bombers out of he Aleutian islands was contemplated but then discouraged due to the experiences of units that were stationed that. Basically it was a idea based solely on the distances involved on a map and the idea of "easy" supply compared to say China or bases in the pacific, issue came down to the fact that the climate was very hostile to aircraft out in the open and also the weather being so variable that it could go from clear weather to completely fogged up within 30 minutes. NGL that bit of the movie was amazing in just how it was animated and colored but that doesn't change the fact it was a fever dream to think it would work
18:48 You forgot to mention Vilkha which UKR had in their arsenal at the start of the war. It' basically a Ukrainian HIMARS (with even longer range, ~130km with the Vilkha-M), it's just that they've depleted their stocks in the first few weeks.
It is mostly unguided though
Vilkha-M was still under development, first tests showed larger CEP than what military wanted. Also, we didn't have a lot of Vilkhas before the war, only a couple hundred were produced.
@@terrynewsome6698 It is guided, it was developed as a guided missile for the BM-30. A bit shorter range (70 km vs 85+ km) but heavier payload (~150 kg vs ~90 kg) than HIMARS.
@@theleva7 The BM 30 is less effective because it is less accurate and takes very long to reload
Never thought i'd be insta-clicking on every video from a channel about war economics and military planning but you've got me hooked! Keep up the great work boss.
Great video, literally no complaints.
I was too busy listening and absorbing the information provided to really comment during the video. More over, I listen to YT while I game, so stopping to make a note of something in the comment section is often a less attractive prospect then if I was actively watching.
Now then, I would like to mention that aside from the content itself, I'm rather enjoying the frequent channel metrics analysis that Perun seems to do - it's always interesting to see how a professional TH-camr reads the data and how it affects their output.
Looking forward to more quality content (lucky for me, I've only been subscribed for about a day, so there's plenty more videos to watch/listen to ^_^ ).
Now I can get out of bed, Sunday has meaning again 🛌 😃😊☺
Seriously I'd just sleep in till Monday if it wasn't for these videos I just can't miss. How the heck do you balance work and content creation? Do you even sleep?
the irony of a Russian advocating strategic bombing, since Russia has never successfully prioritized and executed strategic bombing.
The irony of Russians making up a great percentage of the military air industries on both sides
I am sorry to seem stupid but I am looking for the middle bit that would make this be a sentence.
Not really true, all you have to do is to check who was a world leader at devising new strategic bombing concepts and airplane designs in 1920s and 1930s.
@@gratius1394 not Russia. they built some bombers that had potential with better engines, only to abandon them. But the Russian military doctrine has never prioritized nor successfully executed a successful strategic bombing campaign in any war ever, regardless of the insights and ideas of select individuals within Russia.
@@SoloRenegade Yer-2 or TB-7 {later renamed Pe-8} were really impressive for their time and, if put for large scale production, would have been a match for British Lancaster or US B-17. The Soviets had shifted their entire airforce doctrine around 1940 and started to prioritize medium bombers and ground attack/CAS planes - that's the main reason why their strategic capabilites didn't developed along the lines more similiar to the western Allies. Limited revival of their strategic bomber force happened after WW2 but by then they were so heavily outnumbered by their counterparts that a completely new doctrine was needed, hence why they had moved to rocket/missile developement.
Gotta say, your videos are very enjoyable even as a background.
Hearing you speak is very informative, and even without watching the slideshow you manage to get your point across with clarity and detail.
Hope you do keep going, and I'll keep waiting for that video on France :p
Fantastic Video! Love them all! You should definitely do a Collab video with Covert Cabal AND Caspian Report A video with all three of you together would be EPIC!
Perun, thanks for your work. Until not that long ago, only Forgotten weapons and Lex Fridman's channels were those that I watch immediately after seeing a new video notification pop up when I have free time. Now, when I see your new release I am like "Oh boy, here we go, time for another PowerPoint session."
You should check out starsky
@First Last I saw a couple videos. Tbh. I am not watching any "interested parties" channels, because in war it's logical that everyone will use and push propaganda. I am pro-Ukraine because Russia simply waging a war of conquest on a sovereign country. But until the conflict is done, I am not going to lose my time when we all know that "The first casualty when war comes is truth." What I like about Perun is that, probably because he's from Australia which is so remote, he's not pushing one side or another. It's obvious and hardly surprising that he wishes Ukraine to win, but in the end, it's most of time "Here're data I could find and I think that means this, this and this ..." But thanks for the recommendation.
@@wellbi I try to watch both sides. I find it interesting to know what the narrative from both sides is and their evolving war goals and signaling. Starsky is fairly genuine but he has admitted he's in the National guard and can't exactly speak frankly 100% 💯
I watch russian news connected to the kremlin too.
@@First-Last_name Sounds like a reasonable way how to observe things. Tbh. I don't have time to watch Ukraine war so closely. I just read news and thanks to what I could learn from Perun's videos it's easier to spot blatant propaganda and when things make absolutely no sense.
@@wellbi Starsky is a public information officer. He’s not bad, but he’s definitely a cog in the Information war campaign of this conflict, fulfilling a niche on the social media battlefield. I might watch him if I had more time, but there’s only so many hours in a day.
Dealing with air power... if china haven't realised that their greatest conventional threat is FOBS then they have missed the boat..
They’re doctrine is geared around that assumption.
Not only are the videos on this channel analyzing the status of the war, objectively better than any other channel I have seen. I would say it is light years ahead of any other channel.
On a related note, I'd love to see a video on what we're seeing on the NATO side of things regarding weapons production. Is the BAE facility for the M777 running three shifts? What do we know about the ramp up of production on the NATO side?
Oh I don't know
But you can calculate the production of artillery in Russia
They produce about 40 self-propelled guns and 40 towed howitzers per year.
At the moment, the total number of heavy artillery destroyed (that is, excluding mortars) is about 500 units. Russia has already been knocked back for 5-6 years
@@thehawk8486 where do you get this? You should look up the recent report by a British general stating that the Russians have the current advantage in production. I only skimmed through it. Should look it up. This channel is bs. Notice only fanboys in the comment section and no expertise.
@@aachoocrony5754 it's an information from Russian media TASS that in 2019, 40 mrls bought for Russian army
@@aachoocrony5754 Concerning the comparison of productions
How many cruise missiles does the US make per year? This info is nowhere to be found.
The author of the channel said that about 250 cruise missiles are made in Russia a year. If Russia switches to a very slow use and goes to zero, then we are waiting for the end of the war. For example, 2024. From now on, it will take 13 years to restore the supply of cruise missiles. No less, but because sanctions on foreign components will not allow them to be purchased in such quantities by circumventing sanctions. Russia will never increase the production of missiles with foreign parts
Therefore, I don’t know about missiles in the USA, but I think in 13 years they will produce at least about a thousand, and still overtake Russia in the end
@@thehawk8486 like I said this channel is misinfo. Sorry. You have to be careful-always. Look up more reputable sources like the aforementioned British intel report concerning production. Its shocking but even that you have to take w a grain of salt.
One clue we already have are the U.S.' lack of hypersonics and ending the f-22 program. They're too expensive. Also European support in terms of arms seems to have come to a standstill while the U.S. is giving downgraded equipment. I don't think we ever gave them our good stuff let alone our most recent stuff.
The economy and its outlook also plays a factor. With the current outlook, its better for NATO to start ww3 now, directly, rather than later.
They have to crash the stock market/ sell their assets first before any large scale war. Remember 1929/1939. Remember the Spanish flu as well. We're repeating the cycle.
I honestly don't know which side will win and I hope both sides have enough deterrents to stop the war before utter destruction.
U.S. hegemony ennding and a multipolar world will be better for everyone-including Americans. Look at the sh1tshow they've done the past 5 years. Imo America will always be strong no matter what except if it was destroyed in a ww3 scenario.
Whoohoo, new presentation
Another excellent presentation. Noticed a change in your voice when doing the "targeting" section. Apartments, hospitals, schools, churches....... gets my blood up too!
Been listening since your first video on this series and have not been disappointed. Nothing is more satisfying then content which can open up a new perspective and way of thinking about an issue. Appreciate your efforts.
I've come to rely on this channel for understanding what is happening in this war. Great job and thank you!