Then What? Assessing The Military Implications Of Chinese Control Of Taiwan | Hoover Institution
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 ก.ย. 2024
- March 3, 2023
Hoover Institution | Stanford University
On behalf of Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and its National Security Task Force the Hoover Institution invites you to Then What? Assessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan on Friday, March 3, 2023 from 12:00 - 1:15 pm PT.
The military implications of Chinese control of Taiwan are understudied. Chinese control of Taiwan would likely improve the military balance in China's favor because of unification's positive impact on Chinese submarine warfare and ocean surveillance capabilities. Basing Chinese submarine warfare assets on Taiwan would increase the vulnerability of U.S. surface forces to attack during a crisis, reduce the attrition rate of Chinese submarines during a war, and likely increase the number of submarine attack opportunities against U.S. surface combatants. Furthermore, placing hydrophone arrays off Taiwan's coasts for ocean surveillance would forge a critical missing link in China's kill chain for long-range attacks. This outcome could push the United States toward anti-satellite warfare that it might otherwise avoid, or it could force the U.S. Navy into narrower parts of the Philippine Sea. Finally, over the long term, if China were to develop a large fleet of truly quiet nuclear attack submarines and ballistic missile submarines, basing them on Taiwan would provide it with additional advantages. Specifically, such basing would enable China to both threaten Northeast Asian sea lanes of communication and strengthen its sea-based nuclear deterrent in ways that it is otherwise unlikely to be able to do. These findings have important implications for U.S. operational planning, policy, and grand strategy.
ABOUT THE PARTICIPANTS
Caitlin Talmadge is associate professor of Security Studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, as well as Senior Non-Resident Fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, and Research Affiliate in the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. During fall 2022 she also holds the Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Relations at the United States Library of Congress.
Professor Talmadge’s research and teaching focus on deterrence and escalation, U.S. military operations and strategy, and security issues in Asia and the Persian Gulf. She is author of The Dictator’s Army: Battlefield Effectiveness in Authoritarian Regimes (Cornell, 2015), which Foreign Affairs named the Best Book in Security for 2016 and which won the 2017 Best Book Award from the International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association. In addition, she is co-author of U.S. Defense Politics: The Origins of Security Policy (fourth edition, Routledge, 2021), and she is currently writing a book with Professor Brendan Green on nuclear escalation risk in the emerging deterrence environment.
Kharis Templeman is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and part of the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific. Templeman is a political scientist (Ph.D. 2012, Michigan) with research interests in Taiwan politics, democratization, elections and election management, party system development, and politics and security issues in Pacific Asia.
Great Guest !
An interesting one, both for its daring angle and its limitations
How about engaging in Economics Allegiance instead of Military Adventures?
Thanks for Uploading.
What are the military implications of the US control of Michigan? Texas? California?
Oil - it’s about oil. Power projection requires control of SLOCs between China and oil sources in the Indian Ocean: Straits of Molucca, Strait of Hormuz.
In the 1970s and 80s, the US Navy had 90 SSNs. Today there are half that number. A third of these are in overhaul at any time. So, 30 are available for open-ocean deployments. At most, half of these, because of crew rotation issues, are normally deployed. So, 15 to cover all the world’s oceans at any instant on average. If all 15 were evenly dispersed on the world’s oceans, the distance between any two submarines would be 2,500 miles. Pretty sparse.
Acoustic and non-acoustic detection is only part of the problem. Classification, localization and stealthy monitoring of another submarine are also required. All four are exceedingly difficult tasks. US submarine crews have been doing this sort of thing routinely for sixty years. PLAN nuke sub crews have not done this. But they’re (very) slowly learning.
Cable-cutting near littoral waters is exceedingly difficult and dangerous. It requires purpose built platforms such as USS Parche, my third boat. But the payback is enormous. Parche’s value was so great to the nation that she was awarded nine Presidential Unit Citations during her thirty year service… the most awarded to any US military unit ever. The cost is that this SSN and others like her are removed from the attack submarine fleet. So, the deployable number drops from 15 to 14.
We need more SSNs and SSGNs… as soon as possible and even before PRC invades Taiwan.
My TH-cam avatar photo is of USS City of Corpus Christi, SSN-705. On her, I made one Indian Ocean deployment, one North Atlantic deployment and one Mediterranean deployment. This boat made the speediest submerged transit ever between the US east coast and the Strait of Gibraltar. After 39 years that speed record still stands. Nuclear power - not Air Independent Propulsion, not diesel-electric - offers this rapid on-site response to distant SLOCs.
Gibraltar is 3,600 miles from Norfolk. The Straits of Molucca are 8,800 miles from San Diego. The time required for an AIP or diesel-electric submarine to transit to these SLOCs is more than twice that of an SSN. The US is the great power for good in the world. We have an obligation to protect that good militarily. That obligation can be supported by fast, nuclear powered submarines and aircraft carriers. Nuclear power is a lasting, strategic game-changer for the US.
How about without Taiwan, it is much more difficult to do espionage?
Unless the US solved it's own problems, it is very difficult to convince others it is still great.
Excellent analysis and thought provoking.
Why can we not trade San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles County to PRC for Tiawan?
Didn't the Nixon administration confirm that Taiwan is China in order to normalize US/China relations in the sino/soviet split? I seem to recall studding the UN resolution that was pushed in the 70's and it names the Republic of China is China and reunification was the goal by China of these meetings by Nixon/Kissinger. I can see why this matters to China seeing how it was used as a land based aircraft carrier for Japan.
"Post-reunification" is an inherently biased term. Virtually no one in either country can recall being "unified". "Post-conquest" would be a more accurate term.
Professor Talmadge gives an informative overview of de jure issues. What piqued my curiosity was the MIT CV item. May I suggest looking at the LiveCam camera 2 of Boston and Maine TH-cam channel. It’s on 24 hours a day. And gives a clear picture of what I have been observing about Boston for 22 years. Especially interesting is 0600h-0900h during the week. Look for what is missing, not for what is there. I don’t know how these described realities of basically the view from MIT and the topic of this lecture square with each other. I have video of Rosslyn in winter. 9F. Same issue vis a vis Georgetown.
You guys need to say post-annexation, not post "reunification"
USA govt is really only concerned about Taiwanese supply of microchips.
Derp hi guys. Wonder if there’s time to get another war in before the next mega catastrophe resets civilization …
Yes, Please do what a Amrican do the best! WAR!
how about PLA cut sensor's cable? These sensors are peace time measure.
I don’t see any plausible way the west can protect shipping in and out of S Korea and Japan.
I'm Chinese-American with relatives in both Mainland China and Taiwan. The decision for the Taiwanese people should be simple. I know that extended families in Taiwan always send the best and brightest part of the family to the US to settle, to prepare for a contingency in case they have to leave. Now, have a real conversation with the second-generation parts of the US family members, and encourage all your friends and family to do the same. You should observe the following themes:
-Americans who are not Chinese (including other Asians), don't distinguish between Chinese or Taiwanese or Hong Kongese. In Western society, you are all Chinese. Therefore, the fear and suspicion of China will be superimposed onto you, the most severe impact of which is indirect, in the decisions people make about being in your company or not, giving you opportunities or not, letting you in their world or not.
-The US is overextended and cannot keep its commitments due to clear, factual signs of decline, especially as its adversaries grow stronger. Examples include i) the West in general and the US in particular no longer having a defense industrial base (which is invariably based on manufacturing value-add, where China has at least a 2.5x advantage), leading to a situation where Russia only, with its military development and a defense industrial base inherited from the USSR, is able to exhaust Western supply of weapons; ii) the West now accounts for 50% of the world's GDP, but the key is to see trends, it was 67% before the 2008 financial crises and has consistently gone down by ~1% every year since then; iii) government debt from unfunded mandates continues to rise in Western countries; iv) demographics may become an issue in China, but this was based on state policy and not natural development, meaning there is at least a chance it can be reversed, while demographics are already (note the difference between become and already) an issue in all Western countries (the worst are in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan) (people who brag about the US demographics are the same ones who rile against illegal immigration and will never let in the Hispanics even though they are the ones driving growth).
-Other non-Western countries (including countries that have not gotten along with China) are making independent decisions almost on a daily basis to prepare for a world where there is no longer Anglo-Saxon hegemony. Examples include i) India increasing trade with Russia (it has purchased more Russian oil than China has since the war began); ii) Saudi Arabia and Iran rapprochement; iii) Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey rapprochement; iv) the China-Brazil / Saudi trade deals where both sides agree to trade in their own currencies
-Due to the above decline, the rise of populism the try to counteract the decline, leading to abandonment of commitments abroad. Two general points here. First, populism is pervasive in all Anglo-Saxon countries and in Europe. At a minimum, it is here to stay and will only worsen as the decline becomes deeper as the peoples in those countries are driven by entitlement and not a willingness to adapt and learn. Second, in the specific case of Taiwan, the Biden policies are instructive. To be clear, TSMC is not too big to fail. The US cuts off machinery exports to TSMC and TSMC disappears the next day. It is as its name suggests, a manufacturing company, not one that actually designs or innovates the chips. The real issue is what the US is doing outside of Mainland China. It is, through industrial policy, forcing TSMC and the other Asian chip producers to open factories in the US. Then when these companies complain about costs the US dangles subsidies, only to then tell them that taking subsidies means they can't expand in Mainland China anymore (classic bait-and-switch). Then the US allows the GSP to expire, meaning the tariff rates of other Asian countries also rise to almost the China tariff levels. Then the US, along with the UK, effectively confiscates 300B from Australia for used subs the US no longer wants and new ones that won't be ready until the 2040s, because Australia had the audacity to sell its resources to China. This is not a partner wanting to protect you in the name of "freedom and democracy". These memes are empty slogans when you look at actions. The actions suggest a country in decline who is desperately trying to take advantage and pillage others while it still has power in order to satisfy a critical mass who demands a return to their old way of life. To this critical mass, you are Chinese and Chinese only, and therefore you a threat to their way of life. None of this is "propaganda".
-"Americans who are not Chinese (including other Asians), don't distinguish between Chinese or Taiwanese or Hong Kongese" liar,I have been in US for 40 years. At least in Orange County where my family have resided that is not the case. When you have Chinese shooting Taiwanese American church going "seperatist," that pretty much throws your whole argument out of the window. At the risk of generalization,Taiwanses like me are much more incline to assimilate into the American and western culture.Chinese like your self seem more fixated on ties to China.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
TL;DR
Charles, you were told not to use the word 'propaganda' when discussing party counterpoints to western policies relating to east Asia. The context is irrelevant because the word will only dissuade readers from the stated points. Please ensure that this error is corrected.
I'm of the opinion that if you say and act like you're an American, then we are the same. It's extremely preposterous for me to hear the CCP use familial ties in the old world to manipulate the behavior of people with Chinese ancestry abroad. "Take down that tweet or your relative here at the police station might get hurt". What government can continue with behavior like that?
Why does she keep using the term reunification? Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. Surely there’s a less politically charged word that could be used.
Finally, we are openly talking about the Elephant in the room.
They need to do a lecture about the geopolitical implications of the United States going politically and economically bankrupt and no longer being able to deter communist China and Russia under Putin from literally doing whatever they please regionally..
Taiwan is one of China's provinces. It is logical for China to gain control of Taiwan (unification). No external forces can stop this from happening because of China's ever increasing military strength....
Could PLAN submarines be loud on purpose?
The real reason behind everything
Let us make sure that such a thing NEVER HAPPENS 🇺🇸 🇹🇼 💪
US already officially recognises Taiwan and a one china policy. What are you yanks blabbering about. Not enough that you started the war in ukraine, you need another.
You all should redefine your 'long run' as 'medium run'. It sounds like the planning here is only 10-20 years out, when we need to be thinking 50-100 years. It sounds like many of the key calculations have a 5- to 10-year window - how long it takes China to build deep water ports in Taiwan, how long til China develops quiet submarines, how long before the oceans become transparent. But meanwhile China is making and succeeding at its 20- and 30- year plans. In the last 30 years China has succeeded in making itself an intrinsic component of the economies of all of Asia and in becoming the worlds largest economy while America has only succeeded in hollowing out its industries and bankrupting itself. All this military planning are for short-term stop-gap solutions, and what is needed, if one really wants to retain our American empire, is economic and industrial policy.
The location/position of Taiwan didn’t change for past years. Why this topic came up to the public recently? Did Chinese forget the island since 1949? Will the second biggest economy allow US to continue controlling the hundreds miles away island? Think about the losses and gain during the reunification of China. It’s all depends on how much you have and how much you can afford.
The military perspective is well constructed and Larry is also right that this particular angle of public speculation about the attitude of the US is the center point of Chinese cognitive warfare in Taiwan right now in daily base. I live in Taiwan and see it every day.
The cognitive warfare prays on the public fear that Taiwan's survival is truly depend on global order, especially the protection from the US. And now the US is calculating the cost of giving up Taiwan. (In geopolitical reality, who doesn’t!)
From Taiwanese perspective, we see a authoritarian regime who is very firm and aggressive in attacking us and a democratic ally, who is our vital surviving line, constantly change her calculation in daily bases. Although we are going to defend the way of our life to the last minute but, just like the Ukraine case, the only chance of success is based on the the attitude (or calculation) of the US.
I am pretty confident that Japan and Korea are watching careful now too. If there is a slight sign that the US will jump ship, they will also change position and North and South Asia will soon take side within years. You also need to survive too. Then it’s time for the US to leave Asia.
This is not merely about Taiwan, a small island that produce high end chips in low cost to let Silicon Village tech giants richer. The question is about “ Do America wants to stay in Asia and can you survive the future without Asia?” It’s not only about Taiwan, it is about the national interests of Unite State of America.
I don’t know how other people think about this, but this is the argument that I believe to be true so we can still stand up to defend our country with a hope of success.
It’s pretty simple. Taiwan 🇹🇼 stays Taiwan. Until China 🇨🇳 overcomes its One Communist Rule. And, do have proper elections/Parties for the Mainland
amazing
you know, she's getting paid to do what she does. Imagine she ain't the only one. I have to ask, is there nothing else more tangibly productive to achieve? Or there's just more money than you know what to do with?
I think you might have got the Chinese flag wrong.
Taiwan has no military significance to the USA.
It will be rather easy for the mainland to compel Taiwan to accept a Hong Kong-like deal but difficult to land on and control it. Taiwan is on a leash due to its geography, and most importantly due to its reliance on fossil fuel by carriers that will be sitting ducks. Mere threats on the sitting ducks will seriously corrupt Taiwan's economy. Politically, Taiwan is quite hopeless and there will be no war. Taiwan, as a highly autonomous part of China, will be of no threat to the USA, Japan, or SK.
The US is already hollowing out Taiwan as the US heightens instability; other industrialists will follow the US's lead to divest from Taiwan. The global industrialists have two choices: keep investing in Taiwan toward WW3 or gradually jettison Taiwan economically. They, like the US, will choose the latter; hence, Taiwan will gradually lose its economic value to the world. Taiwan will no longer be allowed to be a part of the supply chain. Increasingly, the global industrialists will demand a formal arrangement of peace between Taiwan and the mainland for investment on Taiwan to proceed.
With SK and Japan, the US can project its forces quite well. On the other hand, the mainland can easily bypass Taiwan in projecting and deploying its forces. Taiwan is of little military significance.
US support for the pure burden of Taiwan is purely ideological.
Last, the rhetorical question should be answered. Indeed, after the issue of Taiwan is settled, US-China relations will improve. That China's claim on Taiwan is legitimate should be considered in predicting the global situation after reunification under a Hong Kong-like solution. Taiwan, and only Taiwan, claimed all of China, took the Chinese treasury and much cultural relics. Don't proclaim that these are not the reasons for China's design on Taiwan. We can all rest.
So we R developing a military presence there. I'm not sure there what's worse: our getting ready 2 kill on 2 fronts, or the destruction of USA's infrastructure, or the economy + all its consequences. I had 2 stop listening once I got the gist of it. Glad I tuned it tho. CIAO AMORE.
US ROC relationship starts from 1911
Oh oceans will be "transparent." The math has been done. It's next for AI to learn. It has to be in the visual program. So us mortals can push the yes prompt.
Why is she and others using Beijing's language? Re-unification implies that the CCP once had control of Taiwan which they have NEVER had. STOP USING THIS LANGUAGE!
12:40 we as Taiwanese people really dislike the term reunification as it is not accurate.
The ccp has never ruled the island and therefore by definition there never was a unification.
In order for the reunification to to be the correct verbiage the people’s republic of China would have to revert to being the republic of China the only true China as proven by the antiquities and culture that has been maintained here on the island.
Hang on, is this video (and similar research) available to CCP? I mean are they supposed to know what we know about them, our military options, how we’re assessing risks, or how committed we are to Taiwan???
As an American of Taiwanese descent, I’m happy to finally stop hearing “oh, I love Bangkok”…but hearing this type of cold strategic assessment can be even more cringing…
There are human beings there! ~25 million souls-most of whom are freedom and US loving, my parents’ included…
IMHO: CCP will wait until our appetite for saving another nation’s sovereignty is worn down by Ukraine, then make a move on Taiwan. Breaks my heart but I fear by then the US will just watch it happen… 😭💔
Answer: worldwide catastrophe and global economic depression for 50 years.
Wanted to listen through, but too many uh's, uhm's and you knows.
Move Taiwanese to Texas
I am quite astounded that Caitlin Talmadge _(a professor from Georgetown University no less)_ did not even mention the (very high) probability of China's neighbors (South Korea and Japan) going nuclear after Taiwan was invaded.
_Did she simply not consider it possible? OR relevant?_
big deal ... the end of the world? hilarious.
Somewhat delusional, I think. Who knows what submarines, what weapons, the Chinese have and where they are right now?
Chinese and Russian goals are based on authoritarian rule and nature of authoritarian regimes. They are NOT based on Chinese historical perspectives. Therefore, greater Chinese power without democratic rule means an an ever expanding Chinese Imperialism.
The US has to think about Taiwan as separate country IF peaceful reunification ever fails.
The US has to have a plan for the collapse of Russia as an Empire. Almost the entire area of Kamchatka could be defeated with US sea and air support. This may get Japanese support especially if historical Japanese Islands are returned. The character of governance maybe important. The US and China may also agree in advance to defendable borders. The US should have a non-Artic goal for China.
Impossible. If Russia falls the US has no leg to stand on in denying Arctic access.
Japan interfering on the mainland would be suicide.
Russian collapse would just hand China the heartland... they would pivot away from naval escapades and make themselves unquestionably the preeminent power from Mongolia, across Central Asia and all the way to Europe.
Turkey control of turkic nations would be the biggest obstacle.
A sanctioned and preoccupied Iran would be completely bypassed with larger oil orders maybe tech transfer being their compensation. Disintegrated Russia would open up the under developed caucuses and all the natural resources. India would be sidetracked with Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Point being Russian collapse would be of immense benefit to China... US has no capable or natural ally in the region that it could support as a bulwark.
Turkey no longer trusts the US after the coup, India considers US propping up of Pakistan military to be unacceptable, Iran has become resolute in it's anti US stance and no other nation in the region has either the demographics, economy or history to assert authority.
Only hope post Russia would be a Turkish and Iranian bloc but they'd have to divide the Arab and central Asia regions amongst eachother and be unified in containing China.. considering how energy dependent China is they could pull it off
Knowing the US though they'd just attack that new pairing 😂