Cold War II-Just How Dangerous Is China?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 มิ.ย. 2024
- Recorded on April 9, 2021
China is a nation with 1.3 billion people, an economy projected to become bigger than the United States’ in just a few years, and a rapidly growing military. Hong Kong has already fallen under its authority. Meanwhile, Taiwan looms in the distance-with a population of almost 24 million, it’s a technology hub and the world’s leading manufacturer of microchips and other items essential to high tech. What are China’s ambitions toward Taiwan? And if they are ominous, what should the US response to Chinese aggression be? To answer these questions, we’re joined by two experts: former national security advisor (and current Hoover Institution senior fellow) H. R. McMaster and former US deputy national security advisor (and current Hoover distinguished visiting fellow) Matthew Pottinger. They also discuss the Biden administration’s recent diplomatic encounters with China, and which countries might be allies in a conflict with China-and which ones would not be.
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The 3 speakers agreed that it was the Chinese people that lifted themselves out of poverty but not the Government. Now i understand why America is failing big time.
If “the CCP didn’t lift a billion people out of poverty, the Chinese people did”, then by the same logic the structure of the US government can’t stave off American decline, if America’s own population has decided to give up. I’d love to be proven wrong here, but the writing’s on the wall.
Agreed. Our own ignorance, laziness and progressiveness has killed us.
would love to disagree. but cant
What are you people talking about? No wonder America is in a mess.
We are dangerously assuming that the majority of China's population is not pro communism. Collectivist societies have a different concept of freedom with its relationship to power structures.
Interesting, if I could contribute with some information, China is the most important comercial partner of Latin American countries. Here in Perú for example, US companies sold their operations to Chinese companies in the last decades. For me as a Peruvian, is easier and cheaper to buy from Ali-express than Amazon.
Why did they assume that china is gonna follow their orders ?!
The arrogance
I can imagine how real China expert Martin Jacques will enormously disagree with the views here. May the Hoover Institute invite him too on the same topic?
how dangerous is the USA ?
Very
22:00 "China's army is about the same size as ours." And that is a concern? China is about the same geographical size as the U.S, yet landlocked with 12 more countries. Throughout her history, China had been invaded from the north, from the east, from the west, from the land and from the sea. As a majority Han ethnicity nation, China had lost her governments to invaders from Mongolia, Manchu and almost to Japan. She was invaded by an allied forces of eight countries including the US in 1900 which set off the next 100 years of domestic upheavals. Nowadays, They need to defend themselves from not only the US, but the likes of NATO, the Quad, Russia, Japan, India, North Korea and Vietnam etc. It would be incompetent of the CCP to not learn from history and build up enough deterrent to any potential foe/foes. "All this meant is to keep us out." Well, yes, HR. Any country's goal for 'defence' is to fend off foreign invasions. Only US's defence department plans for 'offensive' purpose. I don't want Taiwan to be ruled under Communists, but Taiwan is as much part of Chinese history as the Isle of Man to U.K.'s. 95% of the citizens in Taiwan trace their ancestral family tree back to mainland China. Having said that, it is not uncommon that due to the differences in political or religious beliefs that the same people have decided to severe their political tie. However, there is always a cost. For a similar case, the US would have lost the fight for independence without French intervention, Taiwan will not be able to remain democratically governed without US/the world's intervention.
These brilliant guys are as much right about China as much as Afghanistan experts were right about Afghanistan.
Mr. Peter Robinson:
Look at a map of Hong Kong. You will notice that it lies entirely within mainland China. Shenzhen, a Chinese megacity that is 1.7 times larger than Hong Kong, is 17 miles away. There are large PLA garrisons in Shenzhen and Hong Kong ready to crush any foreign invasion of the region. China does not need Hong Kong economically-HK represents only 2% of China’s GDP. It is not 1842 or 1860, or 1896 anymore where GB was able to coerce China by force. There is nothing the US could have done to save Hong Kong.
HR lost me with "we have advantage of being able to choose who governs us"
He said we = the US war machinery.
It's ludicrous to think that in a country of 330 million, a Federal legislature of only about 600 representatives + 1 executive constitutes a "democracy".
@@dirremoire We don't claim to be a Democracy. We're a Representative Republic. Anyone who says otherwise is ignorant of American political structure and sadly, that's most Americans. Democracy is terrible. Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what's for dinner.
The host keeps interrupting with very bad timing, and totally changing the topic. Very frustrating.
No, wrong, completely wrong.
You guys should listen to what singapore leaders talk about china.They knew china most.
Peter need to shut up more and let the speakers finish their thoughts!
I want to repeat a comment made by a poster to point out the kind of minset our top people have: "The 3 speakers agreed that it was the Chinese people that lifted themselves out of poverty but not the Government. Now i understand why America is failing big time."
This was one of the most annoying interview that Peter Robinson has ever done - his questions were far too long and just as the others answers were getting interesting, he would interrupt and change the subject - Peter admits constantly that he’s a layman when considering the military aspects of the conversation yet continually shuts down the conversation when the speakers are getting yo the point of the answer. I’ve loved watching many many of these Robinson conversations but this one was definitely one of the worst especially because I really wanted to learn the things that he didn’t let them say.
the host please let the guy speak, he touches really great points
the guy = Matt
Wow, I thought. These two people are talking about what is going on in USA!
How many wars have China started since the end of WW2 and how many the US?
Did anyone feel they were convinced we’ll be ok? I’m not feeling convinced.
“They have increased their defense spending 800% since the mid 90s”
To put this in perspective, also increased their economy ~2,000% since the mid 90s.
And their army is the same size as ours? Sounds pretty modest, given they have four times the population.
They’d still likely kick our ass, to be realistic about things. The analogy here is England/Germany, not US/Russia, except with nukes in play, no homefield advantage, and an alternate history in which England had lost its mojo. This hypothetical war needs to not happen, because there’s no way it would end well.
Lol play by the rules or play by the rule written by US?
Mat Pottinger US is financing China’s defence? It’s more like the whole world is financing US defence spending through US 28 trillion deficit.
Your guest studied China for years? China studied and trialed democracy hundreds of years ago and they didn't use it for a reason.
Likely for the same reasons that the USA did not become a democracy but rather became a Constitutional Republic (which has been corrupted by a permanent bureaucracy, a corrupt "professional political" class and corrupt cultural elites... )
Chinese (including those foreigners living in China) enjoy freedom in a safe, secure, prosperous society, and most of all, free of fear (Nixon's) of violence and discrimination. It enjoys human dignity. NOT?
Peter. Good questions, but please..... brevity brevity brevity! Ask the questions and get out of the way and let them answer
Couldn’t agree more!
It’s 1938 again,..with 21st Century characteristics.
With all due respect, Mr. Robinson you interject too much, you talk too much, and you don't let your guests finish their sentences. This behavior is very annoying to viewers who are as concerned about this issue as you.
The way that COVID has been handled by the Chinese is effectively 'shots fired'
Nobody spoke to the overarching issue, that we're in a parlous state economically and it's more likely that a financial circuitry burnout occurs, before China makes a move.
Misspoken? Are you really talking about genocide in US? Then why indigenous population dropped from some 40 million to less than 7 million? While Uighur population grow from some 5 million to more than 12 million.
the real difference is that america sees the world through the prism of war while china that of prosperity. all china really needs to do to taiwan is close down trade across the strait and send the 1 million plus taiwanese working on the mainland back home.
1. Never assume 2. Trust but verify
Dude we abandoned the Philippines in WW2 for two years. How many fronts can the US be on? We aren't even doing good here on the home front. Russia V Ukraine, China V Taiwan, Israel V Iran, North V South Korea, Pakistan V India, and it's like everyone is waiting for that one spark. And everyone has nukes. O and by the way the current commander in chief is senile.
The problem with democracy is it is messy. China values steadyness more than freedom
PS wrote this before 10:15.
Honestly, host, let them talk!!!
Hi Peter, please stop interrupting your guests and please don't ask such longwinded verbose questions.
There's not much to worry about as the current administration is prioritizing incorporating transgenders in the U.S. military as well as designing flight suits that accpmodate pregnant pilots. Rest easy Americans.
“We were wrong all along”. No shit Sherlock.
Hey everyone, this guy’s a layman
I predicted this over three decades ago. I couldn’t believe we were doing anything with China how insane !
Welcome to Cold War II Electric Boogaloo
Hahaha 😁China will develop at its own pace and timing. They do not need Westerners to educate them on how to develop Chinese civilisation.
This is war propaganda
Yep 👍🇨🇳
A quality discussion. A few items that wish had been talked in detail: 1) regarding Taiwan, there was no discussion of the American ability to blockade fuel and food en route to China in the event of a conflict, 2) a deeper discussion about China’s massive missile force, 3) nobody mentioned about China’s official doctrine to use EMP weapons on the US navy in the event of conflict and how that could escalate.
General McMaster had some amazing experiences as a tank commander. I would love to hear about them from his point of view. His bravery is such that I sometimes wonder whether he would've survived The Gulf War if the Iraqis were better equipped.
My understanding is he correctly read their weaknesses and went straight for them. A first-hand account would be great.
Matthew Pottinger had zeroed in on the problem towards the end: the amount of American capital tied up in Chinese investments. I started thinking about this about ten years ago when I noticed that virtually every consumer product was made in China. Have these brilliant investors never heard the old saying, 'don't put all your eggs in one basket'? How to disinvest is the real problem. Not only how, but how quickly. It seems to me that the U.S. has to play a careful diplomatic and military chess game of feints while drawing down investments.
HR McMaster: If it’s not American rules, it is not rule of law.
This moderator continues to step on his guests. Loves to hear himself talk.
TSMC and Taiwan must be held, all the rest is nonsense.
True. Hong Kong is sadly lost. But losing Taiwan would essentially be ceding all of Asia to the Chinese.
TSMC can be moved elsewhere: Australia, Canada, Singapore, Japan, South Korea or even the US. If TSMC is smart, which they are, that is exactly what they will do. Taiwan cannot be moved and will invariably come under the domination of the PRC and the US cannot stop it.
@@lilgarbagedisposal9141 it’s unfortunately inevitable. IMF has China as a larger economy than US and EU combined by 2050. Second largest will be India followed by the US in 3rd. If the EU expands and the currency doesn’t collapse then it could potentially take 3rd.
I think this conversation is great but can't help thinking that we are making the same assumptions as in 1996, not taking into account the recent technological advances wich allow structured control on the Chinese people by the CCP.
This conversation is about the fear of communism...
Robinson and McMaster. Needed this.
Is it me or can you replace China and CCP with USA and Federal Government in the part of the discussion about the domestic and political leadership situation?
People, you are entitled, to your narrow opinions, that's how things are/were in the internet, and the readers do not have an opinion on whatever you say is True or False, it is just your personal viewpoint, and it carries no weight once it is beyond your mouths.
If a new war, Cold or otherwise, does indeed occur, it will not be fought using outdated 'Cold War I' arenas, terms and lessons learned. Overly assuming so, as well as superficially reading the Chinese government's intentions, will be our Achilles's heel. The military assessment is important but will not be the main determinant of 'success.'
And thank you for hosting and sharing this discussion. The economic piece at the end cannot be emphasized enough. While Cold War I is most often taught here simply as a triumph of political ideology for the US/West, it can also be viewed as one by the larger, more resilient economy..
The mechanism if I am not wrong is that they want to modernise their military with advanced weapons and technology.
Robinson asks the question and then answers it.
Thank you, Peter Robinson, for conducting that excellent discussion.
Bingo! Richard. I always forget about passive aka shadow sovereign finance. It is so hard to communicate that to the average Joe.
In at 0:01 : Population China 2020: 1,439,323,776 people (not 1.3 billion).
i am 47 years old Chinese, so i expierenced the changes happened in China, and i fell our lives are better and getting even better, which is not achieved by attacking others.
will what you said help our lives better? or make it worse?
2 million men in arms? Really? With 75 million in reserves 😏
After watching this video, I realized why the Chinese like Trump.
fascinating talk but if you want analogies with 20th century events, what does China need to make happen to Taiwanese society so that the ethnic similarities between China and Taiwan are seen to overpower the political differences? Achieve that and China then walks into Taiwan to unite a greater ethnic chinese empire in the way that Hitler walked into Austria? That would be the smart way to regain the territory they desire. How to do it? Make Taiwan's allies appear racist against Asia and asians, be sufficiently fearsome to Taiwan's allies such that they no longer commit to the defence of Taiwan, paint USA as a war monger getting rich out of the continued sales of weapons to Taiwan, show that Taiwanese politicians get rich on the back of these arms deals and sabre rattling, enable Taiwanese universities and schools to teach the next generation a form of "communism-lite", await demoralisation of Taiwanese youth and culture - let them become a nation of lovers not fighters, etc... and then why would a generation of X-box loving Taiwanese men and women want to lose everything in a fight to the death.... the Chinese empire would be welcomed in..."Anschluss mark II" - that is the analogy to imagine...
This is the most substantive conversation on China and the shame is how few people see it.
A talk I've been looking forward to for a long time!
Semiconductors. That's what the "war" over Taiwan is about. Naval blockade?
It’s really scary when the Marines are making the most sense. Lol I know.
well, mcmaster isnt just some jarhead
Dear Peter,
As a long time listener please stop interrupting and derailing the conversation.
Thanks!
If they fear most, they should not attack their own people
Great to hear HR talk in his field of speciality
Mr. Peter Robinson
May I remind you that until just over 200 years ago, Imperial China had the largest share of global GDP (50+%) and was more culturally and technologically advanced than the “barbarians” in Europe. It was that way for over a millennium and it was done under an imperial system that was authoritarian, paternalistic, and mercantilist. Ever hear of the “silk road”? What makes you so dead certain that the Chinese imperial/tribute system couldn’t work again?
And as to the role of the CCP in the rebirth of modern China, please recall that the CCP unified a very large, fractious and demoralized population into a single country that had previously been kept divided by foreign occupiers and warlords for well over a century. Stability is the prerequisite for progress. Furthermore, the CCP sent its best and brightest abroad to learn civil administration, science, technology and engineering. If the CCP had not done that, China would not be where it is today. So give the CCP its due respect.
Please stop drinking your own Kool-Aid.
Interesting discussion indeed. Pity the host felt the need to interupt constantly. Guide the debate - sure - dont keep stopping the depth by feeling the need to say something so trivial.
Yes, agreed, spot on. My perenial thought. Take note Hoover.
Yes China is defying gravity as it hits 70 years, but so is US defying gravity as it's dollar as reserve currency hits 90 year mark.
Compare Taiwan to Britain is ridiculous! It shows the host is not informed about Taiwan’s status.
Much more likely the script is flipped which explains what we see culturally.
I’m only a few minutes in and these clever men have assumed that Communism is ideological and capitalism is not, unbelievable!
I’ll keep watching but expectations are low
2:10 because you all know the speaker bios
Guys, please, just watch Yuri Bezmenov who was KGB officer and who defected USSR, he points everything!
Such a fool is in power in the United States. It's great;
Thanks guys enjoyed your thoughts!
Last time I checked Hong Kong as part of time so what’s for most of our Taiwan this is one time where the US is stuck in snow somewhere where it’s been and get caught up in no matter what you say it’s not gonna change anything the Chinese are in an unprecedented military buildup it’s not gonna stop you started it with that pivot to Asia for now you got to deal with it
Military founded institution!!! LOL
37: 34 - A run away from the Dollar!
Great video gentleman. Thank you!
Well i am also a laymen and would like to add some comments if i may. HK is part of China, they just leased it to the Brit now they got it back it is under China’s right to do what they deem is appropriate. Taiwan if you go back to history, Gen Chieng Kai-shek lost the war to Mao Zedong and withdrew his troop to an island nearby and that island is called Taiwan, which belongs to China. The way we see it this island is China. What Mao Zedong regretted was he didn’t finish Chieng Kai-sheik off completely. China wants to absorb Taiwan shouldn’t be a matter of the US, its domestic affairs, why the US risks to go to war with this. Taiwan maybe an allie to the US but its not like the German invaded England, that the US must come in to their rescue. You got to understand that Taiwan is always on China’s radar just a matter of time. It’s natural for china to absorb Taiwan. What’s not natural is when China wants to absorb say Phillipines then yes the US and the ASEAN should join forces to fight the invader. The way i see it, the US should strike a deal with China and save their soldiers lives to fight some other necessary war. Correct me if i am wrong, but the US today most countries see them as invader not liberator anymore so they need to contemplate very carefully before they go against China as China is no Iraq or Afghanistan.
How can you invade a renegade province that is internationally recognized as part of the Chinese nation.
Your guest says: "Where are they going to go?" if the US fails to help Taiwan.
Same place where Eastern European countries went after France reneged on its commitments to Czechoslovakia. They will bandwagon.
They said the CCP is afraid of it's own citizen. Then they say that the CCP murders its own people. Afraid of its own people and murder it's own people. Does not make sense. The fact is the CCP is the government of the people not the government who fear the people. Whereas the US is actually the government which does not care for the people and will use all means to kill any group who dare to challenge the elite.
Oligarchy vs Empire
I live in Japan. Japan is monitoring the matter of Taiwan closely. Japanese and South Korean diplomats have already met with Taiwan numerous times. The idea that if China makes an incursion into Taiwan, the U.S. would be left to defend it as the lone ally is not an accurate assessment. I think the value of other allies in the region is being underplayed and undervalued. The Japanese and South Koreans are very serious on this matter, and I believe would be completely committed to stymieing any Chinese aggression.
Sometimes I wonder if we (US) are so indoctrinated/propagandized to think in Checkers terms that we don't see that the pieces in front of us are for Chess. Hopefully the public-level discussions are not reflective of the conversations and thoughts held by the key officials.
As an American, I don't give a rats butt about Taiwan. It ain't worth the life of one US soldier, let alone WW3. Plus, it's funny to hear a Japanese concerned about Chinese "aggression".
Look at military spending per capita...
@@dirremoire then the West is finished and you are a good example of that sad fact.
How accurate and confidence is your assessment?
Karl August Wittfogel would highly disagree. And I would because here is no historian who would explain historical evolution of Chinese people.
You (USA) need another The long telegram where will new Keenan expain you how other civilisation think and work. Your explanation is so bad and inaccurate.
The 3 people here had a wrong reading of situation in HK and hence a wrong reading of the situation in Taiwan and China. I am from HK and the National Security Law has restored law and order to HK. Jimmy Lai, Martin Lee etc are prosecuted for breaching laws in HK and we still have a fair and open judicial system based on common laws. Do send your consulate members to the courts and/ or recommend the best attorneys to Lai and Lee. Seeing is believing. Just staying in your office thousands of miles away and pretending to know what actually is happening is at best ignorant.
seems like a lot of your fellow HKers don't agree based on what's going on. why should your opinion have more credence?
you wrote a long comment but didnt say much besides "believe me"
Yes we all love China - they can do no wrong ....sshh are they still listening?
History always repeats itself sadly...
So what is the end game? Eliminate 1.3billion by USA military?
Different cultures... I don't know if he did, but if indeed Harry Rowen believed in liberalism as the natural end-point of progression and the pinnacle of human development, Samuel Huntington contemporaneously brought into question the idea of concomitant westernization by modernization. On the contrary, Huntington saw rising nationalistic pride and evoked cultural awareness along with modernization. In the wake of secular, liberal and narcissistic ideals - where tradition, wisdom and virtues have become stigmatized and abolished - hubris and self-loathing became the two opposing faces of western identity.
1.4 billion!
Great discussion.
An Aussie here. We got your back USA. It's not the USA vs China it's the free and open societies vs regimes.
Aussie here too. Do you know how contrary your sentence is? So you support the USA and said its not USA vs China?
China has no interest in influencing the political systems in other countries. Anyone who thinks that China is dangerous does not understand China and Chinese. In sun tzu's art of war, the best form of warfare is one that wins without fighting. The Chinese are smarter than that and would rather spend resources advancing itself in technology than waste resources in a war. Taiwan & HK are sensitive issues that China will definitely protect after the humiliating history of allied Western nations attack on China.
China is more of a socialist state. Chinese own private property and its economy is driven by capitalism. Unfortunately many people dont understand that.