Near-Term Sell Signal Triggered For Stocks | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ส.ค. 2024
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The S&P 500 has recently had a near-term sell signal triggered, during a week where many Tech stocks -- including Nvidia -- sold off harder than the general markets.
This shouldn't be a cause for major concern. But it explains why the market is down from it all-time high 10 days ago, and may likely have farther to fall until the overbought conditions are fully worked off.
The latest slowing CPE inflation data gave Wall Street a little more hope on Friday that rate cuts may not be pushed as far into the future as has been currently feared.
And this gave a boost to bonds, brining the US 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.5%.
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all this plus his firms latest trades in this week's Market Recap.
#nvidia #nvda #inflation
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I started selling my NVDA shares that I bought for $45 back in 2019 and i am sitting on roughly about $300k. Am i better off putting the money somewhere else or sit out and wait for a correction?
Well all i know is that you cannot go wrong taking profit at near high. No one ever went broke taking a ~10% profit. It's best if you consult with a fiduciary advisor to get informed buying & selling decisions
Still holding my NVDA shares with a 92 price point. I see it going up much more esp with earnings coming in another 3 months. Actually was waiting for a split
I'm considering a switch but haven't been actively pursuing it. Could you suggest your advisor? I'd appreciate some assistance.
I suppose it depends on your timeframe. When I move in/out of positions I like to do it over a set time. So maybe move $10k/mo from NVDA into the indexes? $2,500 into VOO/QQQ/DJIA/bonds? At least, that’s how I would do it.
Rick Rule has a saying . Don’t mistake a bull market for brains . Wise words !
Other wise words, milk the cow till she goes dry.
Over the last year, I have learned so much from listening to these back-and-forth brainstorming talks with Lance Roberts. Thanks for sharing. Jan.
The relationship advice was not only money, it was thoughtful money! Thank you guys
The rich stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without hesitating then the poor stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich
Do you invest with a professional broker? I'd appreciate it if you show me how to go about it.
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
She's definitely a top player in the trading world. Her ability to make successful trades is really impressive.
After i raised upto 425k trading with her, I bought a new house here in the states also paid for my son's surgery (Andrea) glory to God.
Trading has offered many opportunities to investors to build a high portfolio despite the economy downtown
2 things 1) YES you should do an episode on relationships and money, if only so that we can watch Lance wander into the minefield of saying what he thinks without sounding sexist. 2) it would be helpful if you could say what time of day the episode is being recorded. We all saw that the market with bananas clearly after you had finished but its not clear how much longer after. Overall, loves it! Thanks for the great content.
Lance left out the most important step. Country A invades country B.
The only purpose of government is to protect individual rights, including property rights. Infrastructure? Where’s that in the Constitution? The first power generators and grids were invented and built by prívate companies. We need Separation of Economy and State, not more facist control of critical industries like Power. Government is a gun, look at North Korea to see what happens to electricity when government is in charge.
You are of course correct, but young people today have been taught the only reason roads or electricity exist is because of govt. It will only get worse from here.
You left out controlling our borders. We should be doing this with every one of our paid govt officials including our armed forces and insure no one becomes a citizen by simply rushing across the border and having a child.
@@tatersquad2000Thanks the parents fault....mine know better
Thank you Adam and Lance
you have to record these shows AFTER Friday's market close 😅
!!!!!!!!
Exactly!!! It's not a week round-up if the week has not ended! You keep missing out on important developments, like this past Friday.
Man this has infuriated me so many times this year. Saying the opposite of what’s true. But I appreciate it guys, thanks for the content.
Well, it's free content. Let them choose their right time.
Lighting is good. I work in Hollywood you need to deal with the visual. Glad to hear you’re doing it. You look much better.
I completely agree, as you both mentioned, a certain selflessness is one of the most important characteristics of a functioning partnership.Thank you both Adam and Lance for another great episode of this weekly recap. 👍
Great show today, and love all the relationship details. Very easy to hear sometimes hard to implement.
Strange that Lance did not actually address the "round tripping" situation with NVDIA. He said it will show up in earnings, true, it will overstate earnings.
Yes. Personally, I have trouble with the whole idea that AI is going to be the savior of the slowing US economy. In the 60's and 70's, the average American had enough brains to turn a bolt on a Chevy. In the 80's and 90's, he/she was smart enough to assemble (not design) a personal computer. Now all of that is gone so we've replaced it all with financialization/credit/speculation (flipping) and the magic of rapidly inflating home equity. If that game ever ends, is "AI" really going to be able pick up the slack? What percentage of Americans have the smarts necessary to do ANYTHING related to AI? What about chip foundries? That's not exactly work for average people either.
@@CaptainCaveman1170why does it have to save the economy? All that matters, is do Nvidia customers need to continue buying the chips. And can they afford to do so. If you think Microsoft is running out of money, you're funny, and if you think you just stop buying Nvidia chips, you're clueless to how their business/products work.
@@CaptainCaveman1170 It isnt going to be. Lance doesnt know what he is talking about. he is repeating Wall Street's narrative which amusing since he says he doesnt read headlines and watch videos yet is here repeating the same hype/dribble
You have to be forward looking. No one in the 80s knew how to use the Internet but their kids were soon designing websites. None of us know how to use AI but today's kindergarteners will make a living with it.
Never short stocks making all time highs.😊
Adam,
That lightning looks fantastic on You!🙂
Your video timing really mattered this week mkt ripped to upside late Fri and got above most critical levels.
@@AMP98765 yeah institutional money came in end of day and rocketed the mkt for nothing. Tell us more. When should I buy 480p on SPY?
@@AMP98765good to know. Thanks
@@AMP98765 Okay, Nostradumbass! Why didn't you just go onto the Adam's show and announce it for everyone. Instead everyone had to sit through 2 hours of this ambiguous back-and-forth...
Don't make trading decisions based on what dudes say on TH-cam
@@MomoTrader809how do you know it’s a dude?
Thank you Adam! and of course Lance!
Really appreciate these weekend discussions between you and Lance; always walk away with valuable information. Thanks!
Love these discussions, I do question whether Lance appreciates the extent to which the Govt will/may continue to spend and inflate away the unaddressed debt burden. This could keep rates much higher for much longer.
This comment is a bit late. I did enjoy the piece on relationships. You guys are stellar people and seem to have really good relationships. further exploration and ideas are always welcome
What a refreshing show gents😊
❤ the end of the show! Would like more very wise info
great job you two
Love the novel focus on relationships you bring. I would like to hear more about it. After all, relationships and connection are a big part of our happiness. Regarding love languages, they seem to have fallen out of favour with certain psychologists.
Thanks Adam for great shows! I'm interested in the relationship.advice you mentioned! Thanks again!
That was awesome the information you shared about relationships. Thanks for sharing. I'm interested in more information about this.
Adam I did appreciate your and Lance's attention given to marital relationships. I was pleasantly surprised that you brought this up to your viewers attention. I think this is a very important topic given the ever growing stresses placed on such relationships from societal changes happening. It's one thing if these stressors were just between two people, but sadly it has filtered into the children in ways that as a 72 year old, I am not even recognizing. Thus possibly the growing "not seeking jobs by men and women" leading to what you coined the growing opium parent's basement or such. I would like to recommend Dr. Ramani Durvasula who has a channel on TH-cam and just recently launched her own network. She is a clinical therapist based in Los Angeles. Has written several books. She is highly respected, versed in that subject coupled with an extraordinarily humble personality. She is a delight. How you could marry her expertise with your financial channel, is for you to explore if this suggestion is worthy of your time. Thank you always Adam for your sensitivity to lift up folk to their potential.
Favorite show
Lance, you said the market was down yesterday, not the SPX, Dow or Russell 2k. Also, the SPX low yesterday came within 10 points of the 50 day moving average, then shot up. Huge bullish bar. But, like you said, it's positioning.
Not sure how many people made it to the relationship discussion but I see a lot of value in that especially around the topic of financial management and it's importance in relationships too!
Lance is one of the best advisors and counselor out their helping people with financial advice and life Philo
I literally gave myself a pat on the back when I stopped the video just before the @1:11:48 mark of this cast and came up with, on my own and in my own words, Lance's answer to the JIm Grant view, i.e. "what's going to drive the higher interest rates?" I do also listen to almost everything from Jeff Snider and George Gammon in addition to TM, so that helped, but I was just glad that it appears that I'm learning something by watching these Lance and Adam vids each week. Of course, Jeff's more global and macro focused and provides evidence that we've been in a "silent depression" (Emil Kalinowski's term) since around 2009 and in the big picture banks are still very cautious to lend, which holds back our truer potential productivity.
addendum: that global reluctance to lend is creating a Eurodollar shortage and potential problems with re-hypothecation of pristine collateral, which, if stuff hits the fan, will boost the long bond ETF trade even more.
lance is delusional, especially on bond and inflation topics... which he somehow speaks with such ceratinty about
Lance is always fantastic. Great show once more!
Came for financial wisdom, stayed for wisdom
Great show as always. Loved the relationship advice too, Would be interesting to delve into power dynamics at work too.
Thanks for the relationship talk
I imagine this video was recorded before month end close which had HUGE meltup with volume last 15 mins.
Would this alter Lance's view?
A bump at the end of the month is very typical it is just Wall Street insiders front running 401k, IRA and other monthly automatic investing. The last trading day of June will also likely see a bump for the same reasons above plus automatic quarterly dividend reinvestment. I you ever read the stocl traders almanac you would know this. The only reason this would not usualy happen is widespread market fear from an actual crash or correction.
@@Gone_Flying While your country is divided 50/50 and it seems to be getting more and more polarized ---- I say your risk levels are going up +++
However, there is some safety in good value companies
@@AMP98765 don’t bet against lance, been consistently correct.
@@AMP98765 ,. The CRASH is STILL, a LONG Way's,.. Off,.. IMO
5.5 to 6 TRILLION Dollars, is STILL on,.. the "Side Lines"
@@jcgoogle1808 He explained the rationale behind his NVDA move. Perhaps you should go back and listen again.
If stock trimming is good, and you ultimately buy back in when it goes lower, why would selling all of the shares and buying it back later at a lower price not be even better?
Great relationship advice.
Instead going to my office
going to my recliner.
McClellan interview was soooo good. Like Darius Dale but I don’t have to play it on half speed 😂.
Question: With the fiscal dominance and government overspending, won't that cause more inflation? Maybe not only driven by economic growth, but from escalating government DEBT?
Yes please talk more about relationships and how money can affect them!
I wish I could’ve watched shows like this in my 20s. Perhaps better late than never.
That’s funny because I wish I never found these bears.
i think Lance may want to use a different indicator for his "sell signal"
Love these conversations!
Never buy themes. They confuse you with too many options. Buy index only. You don’t need another salesman.
So many open tabs 😂 33:13
what thats nothing
As usual Lance has covered all the bases, the market could go up or down but maybe sideways.
guys,
thanks you for the last topic, made me think if I am 5 - 1 range, definitely is a very important part of anyone life.
What is Lance going on about with interest rates solely being a function of growth? Interest rates or a demand by a lender/investor boil down to the compensation they require in order to feel comfortable assuming the risk of the lending. If investors feel that there is a potential solvency issue with let’s say the US and their ability to pay back debt, they will ultimately demand more yield for the assumed risk of insolvency. That is likely part of Jim Grant’s hypothesis.
Watch during the next rate cycle if lending rates like mortgage rates fall in line with Fed Funds. I’ll be surprised if the drops in lending are commensurate with the drops in Fed Funds, we’re not in a debt bull market anymore.
I find most of Lance's analyses enlightening, but yeah at 1:12:35 he does get a little defensive and strawman-y in his reframing of the question.
And of course, Adam can't even explain what Jim Grant's reasoning was... Looked totally lost... Did he sleep through his own interview? 🤣😂
Televisions and computer monitors are using way less electricity than the old CRT’s but yes, I agree with the thesis.
Loved this! Thanks Lance, for the new word, Josticity. The Librarian in me loves it!! Finances/garden. Must find the proper balance for success before things go south. It's so hard to face the reality that the party is nearly over!
Also, the color isn't so bad on the backdrop since you are a "winter.' But, I am still curious to see the upgrade.
Uranium and copper are great commoditys rn because it holds value and contribute towards the new energy grid.
Did the sell signal turn into a buy signal during the last 15 minutes of trading on Friday?😅 That squeeze was insane
You should make the Matrix Code your background 🤣
This episode was highly speculative
What happens when 9.3T treasures mature within the next 12 months?
They rollover as they have. Mark it on ur calendar.
Let's go!.
The most important thing in life is where you are going when you die
The mot important thing in life is why you are going where you are going
Note - I use this channel to ground me in pragmatism - otherwise TH-cam can easily turn into an echo chamber for the doom loop
That said…
After this discussion “Why would interest rates rise?, I really would like to hear Lance’s view on how the US will deal with the debt. Then initiate the same conversation
Aren’t many of the gurus sayin the US lets inflation rate rise as money is printed to reduce the debt - demonetization
Result is rate rise to compensate buyers
Wish I was smart enough to convey the “Japan Carry Trade” Michael Gaye’s talks about - but it probably has them selling US bonds to raise the dollars they will need to save their system - rates rise and other bad stuff cascades
Definitely heard Lance say growing GDP via AI can help avoid this path
Also, I believe individuals will buy less and less LT bonds - Does NOT compensate for the inflation rate that I am feeling
I have admitted an aversion to bonds - only see the “trade” as rates drop in near (ish) terms and see a risk of them rising in future.
My blind spot in a nutshell
Thank you very much...
Thoughts on buying 20 year treasuries now?
Unfortunately , I think the 200 day moving average is going to be tested as a bottom sooner than people think. Definitely by early August. A lot of Big Tech is over bought and a certain percentage of investors are going to take profits and run. In a general way, I think we are going to be seeing tremendous volatility in the economic conditions heading into the election. The storm approacheth.
So a 30 year bond at 4% is a great idea? Mmm.
Yeah he said that a few weeks ago too, and posted an excerpt on trading out of TLT into bonds. I suspect assets and prices will far outpace that. Government can only keep doing what it does while actual (not "real") inflation exceeds what they pay.
Does having 6000 different portfolios to choose from really make sense?
I’d just want you to make me money and beat the s&p.
I think having that many portfolios only gives Lance the chance to say, “well you picked that one.”
Is there a Thoughtful Money mascot to place on a shelf in the background? Maybe a piggy-bank with a big brain?
Maybe some close-ups of the men on our money. They were pretty smart fellas.
Adam, I watch you for the great content - background is not ever been consequential :-)
In China, it only takes 2-3 years to build a nuclear power plant. So, if you’re going off of demand for uranium, don’t just look at the US.
I liked the BG. Also, you need contrast. Your lighting is washing everything out.
In what world does it make sense to record these before the market closes? You really can't wait 30 minutes? So dumb. Makes it all worthless . . . where is the sense in that?
They’ll talk
About it next week.. what’s the difference?
Thanks
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
Money managers won't make you money either in a bear market because they don't short so DIY and short the market when it's time.
Lance says "You cannot have higher interest rates unless you have higher economic growth."
How is that statement true? Is he just pulling stuff out of his a$$ and pretending it's wisdom?
Interest is the cost of capital, based on demand and perceived risk. You don't have to have a hot economy to experience double digit interest rates. Lance's perspective assumes the dollar remains the global reserve asset. This could prove to be an expensive assumption.
Lance would be well served to listen more (to Adam's Jim Grant interview for example) and talk less.
Good work Adam
This Friday market makers really had the last laugh
With rates crashing and oil heading back to $40, the economic boom on Main Street is coming. Foodstuff prices are deflating and while rents are about to go hyperbolic and home prices to the moon, AI is helping to slow the price of everything else. S&P 8,257 by December.
Why don't we have people 😮liked 😅. Lance and Adam in control of our country Philo
👍 Love that the show was cast from the set of the 70s tv show M.A.S.H.
😂
Sorry lance we closed above the 20 ma on the daily on Friday we bounced right off the 9ma on the weekly.
You guys are absolute right about the wife stuff. And that's more important than the money stuff
Thank you, you're full of wisdom
Thanks Both
In my opinion we chop around all summer and we get a bigger decline in mid to late august for the election
Great exchange at the end of the episode. I try every day to give my wife affection and tell her how much she means to me. I know it registers and makes us a stronger team.
Would like to learn more about John Gottman’s Four Horsemen in long term relationships ~ each partners monetary value throughout the different chapters in life (child rearing etc). Long term financial goals - ensuring that each partner is taken care of. How to have a non-confrontational discussion about finances and where/how to invest. If one partner has earned more money over the course of 40+ years do they have the right to control the assets and retirement savings?
Does Adam have an old waterbed mattress behind him?
It's supposed to look like the green leather on desktops my father might have been able to afford.
😂 to the Wife’s’ of Adam and Lance: You must be blessed but we want to hear your part of the story 😅
The "wives" have nothing to contribute unless its their take on grocery prices and inflation.
More about the market and less about relationships. I am subscribed to a therapist for that.
What's wrong with cash?
everybody trying to fearmonger, and say its going to crash, and corrections and take your money out fast..... yet the last year or so we have been killing it, why so many are sitting on the sidelines......
They hope the market crashes because they are mad that it's rocketing up without them 😂
@@MomoTrader809 FACTS.
Please tell Lance ONEOK is pronounced "ONE OAK" not "ONE Okay" - former employee and Tulsa resident.
Greece ❤
Yes do the relationship topic! It'll help so many people
I could not disagree more. a major BUY signal has been triggered unless of course you are a day trader! Sadly, this channel has caused its viewers to miss the HUGE bull run that started in Oct 2022, and which is still fully intact thx to the "Wall of Worry" that still prevails in this channel and the market at large. IF & WHEN this channel throws in the towel and turns bullish that will be the time to SELL. 😀
Friday's recovery was a buy signal (for now) 🙏
Adam, new lighting is terrible, looks like you are very grainy, looks like you are using some old VGA camera
I love the emotional content at the end of your videos. Of course I’m female. Not sure if the bulk of your listeners would want a whole show of this content, but if you have enough female listeners, I think we would like it. Perhaps you could do a separate show every so often for this demographic.
57:06 failed miserably and peter lynch in the same sentence. That is a first. 59:00 happy with 3 or 4%? You can’t be serious😂
The lighting looks excellent!
First hand experience: having cancer was easier than listening to lance roberts be perma bullish week after week
My be all of you and your spouse are very strong mates ❤️
Markets go up & go down. People who are correct predicting the ups & downs are mostly right due to the “Stopped Clock Syndrome” being a stopped clock being perfectly right twice a day not because it was “brilliant” but because Events moved to match their prediction 😊