He argues inflation is an economic equalizer , but thats only for those with a certain financial profile of being in debt to creditors. For the rest, The wages won’t rise fast enough to keep up with rising cost of needs.
Maybe directly. But indirectly, debt creates new small businesses, which create new products, which creates new competition, which creates higher wages. So indirectly equalizes wealth as well.
@@robyhartland852 That is the myth perpetuated to enable the endless black hole of government spending. People create new small businesses, not debt. For a small business, debt is just another bill to pay.
@@robyhartland852 I think that idea has pretty much been debunked because the middle class in America has been steadily shrinking with each “bust” cycle. Big money has first access to the bailouts and easy credit while the middle class is left to austerity and the perverse result is that as all the malinvestment creates huge bubbles it inevitably leads to larger and larger collapses and with each cycle the middle class gets wiped out and greater and greater percentages of the wealth flow to the largest banks, large cap stocks and hedge funds that reap the benefits of artificially low interest rates and Fed bailouts while the middle class is wiped out and their market share is absorbed by corporate interests. You bet your ass if I try and get a loan I won’t have a .25% interest rate and if my company goes under I won’t get a bailout. It’s the opposite of a free market it’s corporatism and at its heart is the boom bust cycle created by artificially low interest rates (near zero or even negative) on government debt and collateral, which creates an environment that favors political insiders with access to all the benefits of governmental largesse and bailouts, and the malivestment and inefficient allocation of capital brought about by this cheap credit has become so bad I believe it is systemic and it will ultimately unwind in a GREATER DEPRESSION wiping out much of the remnants of the middle class and also much of the corporate world including many of the most exposed hedge funds. End the Fed and bring back sound money that is determined in the marketplace (not by corrupt governments) so that markets can function fairly and freely once again and these dramatic boom and bust cycles will become less severe and will be contained to certain sectors of the economy instead of being systemic! Only then will opportunity come back and the economy and middle class will be healed. Unfortunately it will take severe deflationary collapse before any real change comes to the central bank, fractional reserve lending system that has essentially financialized the whole economy and this fact is seen in that valuations in the stock market have become so malinvested and stretched beyond all rationality (because of this flood of newly created cash and huge amounts of leverage) that corporations like Apple are trading 300x their actual year to date earnings. That ^^ is malinvestment created by over 300 trillion (Counting debt derivatives in the shadow banking system that number could be much higher as much as 900 trillion dollars) in private, corporate and governmental debt, a bailout/insider trading culture and suppressed interest rates! Think of how overvalued all the large indexes are and how much debt all the nations of the world have accumulated in just a few years. And interest rates on the short end of bonds are zero or negative? With inflation raging at 5.5% even by government metrics such as the CPI? The interest rate should be 6% minimum on the short end in a free market. But central banks buy up all the bonds to keep those rates down with central bank notes. We no longer have free markets people need to understand this. That is why the middle class has been shrinking since the first major collapse post 2000. It all really began when the dollar lost its status as the singular gold standard currency in my opinion. But that is a whole other topic and personally I have begun to believe that what money is should be determined by the marketplace and never by government, because governments inevitably corrupt money through fraud so that they can finance huge spending deficits in order to wage wars and this also allows governments to grow far larger than they ever could if they had to actually tax the populace directly for everything they wanted to spend. That’s also another reason for a flat tax, or an equal tax rate for every citizen, because it actually makes government more politically accountable for their waste as they can’t play politics with the tax rate and cater to one group over another. A flat tax also usually leads to a lower tax rate overall and less governmental spending.
Regarding Neil's comment that we can inflate our way out of this mess... point made BUT due to the fact that we're FAR deeper in debt than any prior generation of Americans (or any nation since the rise of civilization) the risk of hyperinflation is far greater than at any time in the past and that will create social disruption on a scale we've never seen in our nation. Look to the Weimar republic to learn what resulted from hyperinflation there.
That's a prediction that probably has no basis and based only on a subjective "feeling"... That the national economy in 2 1/2 years will suffer a moment of inflation followed by a long term downturn.
What Mr. Howe doesn't consider is that in 1945 the US had 23,000 metric tons of gold - 1/4th of the gold held by ALL the world's central banks. I can't see them getting away with creating enough "money" to buy up all the bonds institutions will be dumping today. Also, while inflation reduces the real value of debt it also causes wage gains to lag price increases. It's not the working stiffs who will do well, it's the holders of real assets, like real estate, stocks of oil & gas producers, gold & silver, etc.
You get to sacrifice just like your grandpappy. All so the elite don't get to bite the bullet. And people still believe Covid "accidently" leaked from a lab. LOL
Is Argentina back? I haven't seen that one yet. Thought only the financial district is prosperous and funtional and the remainder of society travels for money, barters and rations. I'd love to see updated documentaries if anyone can pass them on!
Beind a little kid in 50s was great. Lots of optimism, lots of neighbor kids in the new housing tracts, everybody was poor but we had houses, great pyblic education, lots of cheap gas so we poor kids got lots of vacations in new national parks, uncrowded highways. Parents kept getting better jobs. People were getting funded retirements. We had IGY, science was funded, smart poor kids got all kinds of special programs. Heck, everybody was still poor, it was not a stigma, so WE kids didnt know we were poor. We got great educations.
It is people, who make the system work - not history. It boils down to having a functioning moral compass to hold things together. Societies, throughout history, who went the way of greed, self-serving interests , "me first" and "as long as I have mine, to hell with everyone else" attitudes will bring the entire system down, to its knees. No matter what the powers that be attempt in their efforts to hold things together, unless a good, moral compass is paramount within people's lives, Society will fall apart.
There are so many market imbalances. A retirement crisis is coming for decades to come. Inflation is not going to "fix" the bigger problems that are coming because of irresponsible government policies over the last 2 decades.
Demographics. The largest generation has or is entering retirement and this group is on a fixed income. Inflation is in no way helping anyone already on a fixed income and experiencing the largest medical bills of their life.
I loved the statement about our economic future: "... nothing was written..." I don't suppose there's any chance you know about the digital ID you'll be required to wear in order to exist under total subjugation -- or die. The entire planet is preparing. You don't notice anything strange? You should see all the shit that IS ACTUALLY WRITTEN about now. It's always been your choice.
He's a typical upper middle class liberal Boomer. He doesn't think it will be that bad for him. Everyone else? Let 'em eat cake! I think he's in for a very rude awakening.
The entire economy is based on a ten story tall stack of delusions, ponzi like schemes, inevitable FAIL waiting to materialize, oligarchic scams, social fictions and wealth redistribution schemes. The whole damned mess is a man made game with arbitrary rules created to serve those who sit on top of "the pile".
@@thomaswhaley4024 And the energy source of ALL these things is fake money. We have all been tricked by the master trickster into accepting fake money as if it were real. That is why I call fiat currency Mammon Money.
I’m not sure you have read his work (The Fourth Turning). I read the book in 1998 and his prognosis for us in 1997was 100% spot on (in fact, it is amazing). Don’t dismiss his advice.
I just got a 3% raise . Yay. So, no Neil, no sign of any huge wage hikes yet. Sorry wish there was a 20% raise in my future to match consumer prices but let's be honest there isn't. Not for me. Not for anybody. But I'm still hopefull I'll wake in the year 2033 and it'll be 1950 all over again.
Lol. His inflation talk is obtuse. He speaks as though America in the 40s, 50, and early 60s wasn't the world's greatest creditor nation, and fails to differentiate the current American predicament of being the world's largest debtor nation. We went from economic might to dependant on others financial might. We brought women into the work force, devaluing labor, we exported our labor abroad, devaluing much more so, we are out of options. We are also currently at near 0 fed funds rates and incredibly low short and long term treasuries.. not sure how financial repression doesn't turn into something much uglier.
I read something interesting about the Great Depression that a major cause was the drop in the price of horse feed caused by the disruption of the automobile. I think the next depression will be caused by the collapse of Big Oil caused by the disruption of the electric car. My next car will be electric and I'll recharge it with cost free solar.
@@pyroboobysmith359 Could be like post 1989 Japan and no line soup happened . Anyway i doubt parents of millennials ( the boomers / gen x ? ) would let them down ? I dont not think the generations we speak off in the 1890/1900 were as rich as those of today ….
@@sivi9741 Yes, but that generation could own a home and keep it. Now there’s so many taxes, expenses, insurance, and burdens to kill ownership so you constantly work for paying bills. Millenials will own almost nothing, not even the phone on their pocket.
I think their is a flaw in his perception that inflation is a solution for inequality of wealth. Rich people don't invest in treasuries. The Fed does. Rich buy farmland and commodities right now. They will sell the public what they need to survive and get even richer.
Not necessarily. Expecting inflation eventually (even if there is deflation first). Older people people are the savers so will lose wealth. Younger people with mortgages/debt will see it inflated away. That's wealth transfer. Not saying I like the debt mentality, just that that's the way it is.
@@Ruth-wu3vf Nonsense. There has been plenty of inflation so far and wages have not kept up. the generation that is working through hyper inflation will essentially do so for little to no reward. Never has inflation benefited the working class.... Ever. Enjoy starvation
@@pistilliproductions2930 Absolutely right! My father, who was born in 1913, used to tell about his childhood in Germany during hyperinflation. They ate sawdust bread. At first the sawdust was used to dust the pans. But as conditions got worse they mixed sawdust into the flour to stretch it. When my grandfather got paid, one kid would leave school and go spend every last Mark on whatever was available because the money became worthless the next day. I’m so sorry I lost it over time, but I used to have a billion Mark note from that era. This isn’t going to go well.
@@pistilliproductions2930 We are not in hyperinflation. All I'm saying is from what I remember of the 1970s anyone with debt (usually younger people) saw it inflated away, whereas older people (who disliked debt) found their savings decimated. Inflation was much higher than it is now. I prefer a lower debt non-inflationary environment myself. The reality is many small business employers cannot afford to pay higher wages.
My Zoomer children seem to react to the Millennial's. They like YT and watching content. None are interested in social media otherwise. The are very private in that sense. It's cycle not a straight line.
The only way to regain a sense of privacy again is to either isolate yourself from the panopticon or dismantle the techno-industrial system. Choose wisely.
Agree with most of what Neil is saying, but he’s wrong on inflation helping the middle class. Inflation helps those who have assets not the average wage slave.
Eh i think the point hes making is as long as inflation isnt insane the rise in standard of living due to inflation would still outweigh the inflation for most people
@@retvrn777 How exactly does you standard of living rise when the price of bare essentials (food, petrol, gas& elec) is going through the roof due to not only inflation but also climate change hoax taxes designed to turn the populous into serfs?
@@danielmccarthy3095 Don’t forget rise in real estate/rent and loss of power in pensions/fixed income. The poor are becoming poorer, the rich are using this printed funny money to buy up assets like never before.
The point he's making is that inflation = bad for creditors, good for debtors. Most middle class people are heavily in debt (this obviously excludes some of the poorest Americans, who may never had access to credit). School debt, car debt, credit card debt, etc. Once inflation surpasses debt interest rates -- people's incomes increases will quickly surpasses compounding interest, making debt easier to pay down.
@@iraqiimmigrant2908 In the long term inflation might be okay but they'll use the pandemic(bioweapon) to justify the inflation. They just can't stand to level with honestly.
I completely disagree with the idea that the price of anything going up by crazy amounts is great......its great for the top 1% but it's a huge tax and burden on the rest of usmiddle class or what's left of the middle class . These huge wage I creases he's talking about don't even cover 1/4 of the cost increases we have to pay now because of inflation . 100k a year job does not get you the same quality of life like it did right before the scamdemic. Food , housing , cars all the largest portions of our spending has gone up 15% or more in the past year and wages going up 3,4% don't cover it . Inflation is a tax on the middle class prepare yourselves for whats about to happen
I believe his point is simply that as long as the standard of living increases faster than inflation its still a net benefit ecspecially for the middle class, i dont think you realize how far we are living beyond our means rn, we produce nothing as a country, at best we come outta this looking like japan at worst mexico
5:09 "Fiscal policy will be unable to neutralize" this is a powerful statement and it is true. They have exhausted all of their options and nature will take its course. As my mother used to say "there is a high eventual cost to easy solutions" and this country has been living on easy solutions for a long time.
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GenX has been slow to advance in corporate leadership because the boomers refuse to retire!!! The only way GenX has a chance is to leave the big corporations and move to smaller startups.
Why do you think they won’t retire? The politicians aren’t going to retire until after their funeral. I was ready to retire YESTERDAY! What’s their hold up?! They can’t take the money with them.
@@jessicamai7783 I think it's a mix of power and more money. The boomers at the top of large companies are pretty much selfish, which is pretty characteristic of the generation. Take take take and never give anything. They are the cicadas of the business world. Of course this is a generalization, but fairly consistent behavior. They invented scorched earth policies. They grew up hardened and angry coming out of WWII, which was the origin of their "every man for himself" attitude. Nasty in business and will stab you in the back while smiling to your face. The ancient politicians are the epitome of this behavior.
@@jimmichels7844 Sorry if I gave you the impression I was entitled. I've done ok by myself and can't really complain. My comment is just a generalized view on the topic..GenXers have a lot of experience and when they're looking at boomers in their early 70's not moving into retirement, I think there's an argument the boomers won't leave and have stayed past their welcome. There are a lot of crusty old boomers not willing to let go...perhaps I hit a nerve? I would generally agree the millennials are more entitled than other generations. Many I've hired think they're ready to sit in the C-suite right out of school with zero practical experience.
"Takes away from creditors and gives to debtors", seems to me that creditors in this context are people who work for a fixed wage or have savings denominated in dollars, and debtors are wild speculators of price appreciation and decadent spenders. I am not so sure I see the upside to all of that.
It is difficult to see the positive in inflation, when it eats away the value of your pension. The kids of rich boomers will be rich by inheritance, the unequal distribution of wealth is less a generational problem than an individual problem. Trying to pitch the young against the old is just a divide and conquer game of the billionaires.
the most malevolent boomer cannot plan to spend the last dime before the day of his death. Where i live heirs are entiteled to half of the heritage, irrespective of any tetament. Even if the relationship between parents and kids is really bad, the kids will get something, and this is in my opinion a personal thing and not a group thing.@@gauloise6442
It is wonderful to have such an insightful person still here with us to share his ideas. I have followed Howe since the late 90s and found his theory to be spot on! While I don’t have an opinion on inflation I do wonder if we can maintain our country socially or even from outside threats (adversaries). Virtually all 4th turnings involve conflict. Think about the last three (out of the six identified in the book): WWII, Civil War and Revolution. Will we dodge that bullet this time around? I’m not so sure we will. Inflation may be the least of our problems!
100%. Taking no account of demographic change and the war being waged against the middle class, working class and white people. He sounds like a Hoover institution speaker.. There is no spring coming guys
@@niciassmith1204 How is the attack made on middle class and by who ? Which side of politic spectrum ? Hint: lowest tax since ww2 for corporations and the rich ….. Check the numbers how high it was. That period , they didn’t even have a FED put , today’s the market have a FED put and it’s free on top of it ( lowest tax toward society in 60 years while bailing them out with debts and inflation) .
Good interview! Very interesting, but I think wealthy individuals, will fair much better in high inflation then the middle class, and poor. Fuel prices, and rent will just about wipe out the poor. Look what's happening in California, and I believe it's going to get much worse.
Did the poor fare well in the Weimar Republic during hyperinflation? Only the people with gold. Do the poor fare well in Venezuela and Cuba with high inflation ? Nope
Absolutely agree. What’s going to happen to all the renters in California when they get too old to work and don’t have a retirement account to subsidize their small social security check? If you think the homeless problem is bad now, just wait.
Great interview, thank you. Neil Howe and William Strauss work is remarkable and beneficial. In terms of the Kondratieff Wave and the 18.6 year real estate cycle, if history does continue to repeat our research shows that after 2026 is when US land prices will start their downward trend, then the rest of the investment markets are likely to collapse from around 2027, for at least 4 years. It's like multiple cycles peak or topping at the same time, and then collapsing at the same time. Thank you again.
Neil Howe praises price controls and the New Deal which caused Soviet-style famines and the worst unemployment disaster in American history ... with not even the sense to make counterbalancing discussions of supply shortages. > _If an engineer makes a mistake, for example, and their building collapses killing hundreds, they are ruined_ _In the same vain, if someone who’s only profession is being an intellectual makes a mistake and millions die there is virtually no accountability_ -Thomas Sowell [Disliked] - he makes sense with the cycles of order and leisure, but this specific video's display is a kind of intellectualism that is reckless
High progressive income and inheritance tax rates in the post-WW II years were the chief tool of financial repression that limited US wealth inequality and paid down wartime debt -- not inflation; throughout the late Forties, Fifties, and into the mid-Sixties, the US was on a gold standard until the Guns and Butter policies of the 1960s forced the country (in 1971) into the full fiat "petro-dollar" era still operating today.
LeLocle Vietnam was such a uneducated blunder, made with ignorant fear. Vietnam was a FRIEND during ww2, then we and the French STABED them in the BACK! 😡
@14:50 a more plausible explanation for the gains and improvements seen in the 40, 50 and 60 is during that time, we had relatively sound money as in a gold standard. Contrary to what was claimed, inflation accelerates wealth inequality as the recipients of new money benefit disproportionately from the poor who earn it after inflation. This phenomenon was noted by economists in the 1700s and again with the accelerating wealth inequality today.
Wow someone else knows this movie fom the 70s! Michel York and Farrah Fawcett. Another relevant 70s movies is Soylent Green about overpopulated NYC with not enough to eat. Charlton Heston, Chuck Conners & Edward G Robinson.
Yes I forgot this movie that may come true...Running Man. Arnold S, Richard Dawson and Jesse Ventura as Capt Freedom. We may also be heading for Mad Max. Mel Gibson.
Think big about our future he says.....like what guy? A house I own? A non broke government? How about we start with hiking trails you don't have to pay to park at?
I think folks are misinterpreting Neil here. He's saying that THOSE IN POWER love inflation because it extends their time running the system. And he's making the objective observation that a currency crisis (think Weimar) does indeed reduce the disparity between rich & poor by decimating EVERYONE'S wealth. I don't get the sense he's rooting for that though.
@@Wealthion If you think Weimar decimated the wealthy and brought them down to the level of the poor, you need to relook at history. The wealthy in most cases became even more wealthy in terms of real assets. Hyperinflation decimates the middle class. As for the poor, they never have much to lose. So Howe is wrong, if that is indeed his interpretation.
He comes right and says inflation is a tool central banks are using and he agrees with it. Neil said it was good and helps with inequality. Maybe your misinterpreting him.
Debt will be destroyed through default (by inflation and/or deflation). You can't beat natural law. Expect pain, there really is no way out. The establishment will circle the wagons, double down on their failure, and protect their own gains at the expense of the plebs. More coercion, more extortion, more fraud to come...
Interest rates can't rise as much as they went down in the last 40 years. Not even 10% as much, else the debt time bomb explodes and brings down all financial markets with it.
Is this guy on acid? Inflation brings high salaries? Tell that to the Mexicans. My Mexican grandmother’s teacher’s monthly pension went from about about $300 a month to $30 a month in a short perdido of time during 1987ish absolutel
To be objective Mr howe has contributed a lot to Frameworks thinking about history and Cycles. But as of pointed out it's incredibly frustrating that Adam doesn't even ask a basic question. If inflation is such a wonderful equalizer and so good for the masses how come it's not joy and Rainbows in Venezuela, Argentina, Nigeria, pre-World War Germany the list is endless. Clearly Neil howe politically and culturally is just another big government leftist. I think he's going to have very little to say to help people who are starving to death because they can't afford food due to inflation.
I have listened to thousands of podcasts and this is the first one that I have heard Inflation being a good thing or Equalizer - I have read his book but his view on inflation a little strange - We all know our debt situation world wide with derivatives never before seen at this level - Just don't see how this ends well - God help us if the Kings decide to go to War
Interesting interview, Adam, but I wish you had spent more time asking Neil to give his forecast of changes in the financial markets over the next few years. Are we heading for a deflationary financial collapse (1929-1932 style) or something else? Perhaps Neil isn't the right guy for that question, but his response would have been quite interesting. I agree with others commenting earlier that "inflationism" (orchestrated by the US Government, the Federal Reserve, & the TBTF Commercial Banks) has been very destructive to our nation - and only benefits the richest 1% at the expense of the lower and middle classes. It needs to end.
I like Mike's assessment. Wrt the 4th turning, look on the bright side. If the 2008 crash led to a decade (2010s) similar to the 1930s (80 years ago) then we have been through half the winter already. But, if the 2020s mirrors the 1940s then we are in a war of sorts (with China challenging USA etc), but curiously the unity you would normally expect to 'fight back' doesn't seem to be there. I can't see any alternative to more inflation eventually because I don't think they can raise interest rates, just like 80 years ago. That means any govt response, has to be fiscal but the money has to be spent wisely on directly productive activity, not welfare.
Ruth, I can see a black swan event. China invade Taiwan for the power of chips making, the necessity for the supremacy of China. I cannot predict the reaction of United States.
@@Kukaboora Neither can I, but the US is taking steps to onshore chip making. The plants are expensive to set up. I hope Taiwan and Japan are safe, but also at risk are countries surrounding the South China Sea; this is the second largest naval trade route world-wide (possibly the largest now) and has resources; that's why China wants control of it.
A lot of people I see are getting worked up over his inflation discussion. However if you listen to Lyn Alden's theory about this decade being like the 1940s, she'll explain it a lot more technically sound than Neil.
Interesting -- in Part 1 expresses specific criticism for Trump , criticism for Reagan, accolades for Rosevelt. 🤔 while Neil presents as an interesting and affable individual he definitely has a leaning towards socialism. Corporate and public welfare is what has created all this mess. Solutions of the past have typically been to throw money at any problem / challenge . How’s that been working so far !? 😂🤣 His solutions seem to support more of the same ole same ole!
Yes. Have you seen Mike Maloneys video where he states Roosevelt committed Treason ?! Or about the deeper views that the banksters created the Bolshevik revolution and all wars ?
Taking us off the gold standard and becoming the petro dollar, the creation of the Fed and also money printing in huge amounts since 2009ish created all this mess. Also moving our companies to China also and that in 1970’s Bush Sr went to China to work out deals since Nixon opened that up to. So basically all the globalist elites.
The tell is early on he mentions he lives in DC. He’s a swamp creature even if unintentionally. Take a lot of his predictions with a grain of salt. This Fourth Turning won’t be like any that came before because the “country” is far more gutted than in earlier periods.
Thanks for that comment. I thought I was the only one listening and adamantly disagreeing with him. He has interesting insights but Is not understanding the cause if this mess
Wait a second. He thinks inflation is the solution because it allows debtors out of their debt. Thus, it's good for the little guy who is essentially a deadbeat borrower. But what about all the heavily leveraged and indebted companies in the SPX? Let's not talk about that debt also being reduced by inflation. At the same time, salaries are always the last to go up, and low end salaries are the last of the salaries to go up. I work in high tech and they are giving pay raises and benny increases that I didn't even ask for. But at the low end, the service worker gets nothing. So, NO, inflation is not a miracle cure for everyone. It's only good for the rich. It is a wealth transfer mechanism from low end workers to the money elite. Always has been, always will be. If low end workers ever want a fair shake, they need to stop accepting fake money as if it were real. Its easier than it sounds. Make your money in dollars, pay your bills, and if you have $30 left over at the end of the month, buy a silver coin with it. DO NOT leave it in the banking system. Starve the banking system of low end worker savings. And then of middle class savings. The entire system will collapse and they will have to return to honest money again. And then if rich people want their car fixed, their lawn mowed, or their toilet cleaned they will have to pay in silver or gold (or the backed paper equivalent) instead of this fake money which is printed into existence on a whim and given to elite people to spend first. The whole thing is a total scam.
Adam,, love your interviewing style. You are fantastic and get along so well with all your guests and treat them all with respect. Thanks for the great shows!
I do not agree with your optimistic observation unless you are among the wealthy because a lot of citizens are homeless and will continue to be homeless.
Part 1 was good. Part 2 not so much. Inflation is good for the average person? I don't think so. Today is much different than previous historical parallels. Our infrastructure and manufacturing have been so hollowed out, it will take a long time to recover, if ever. America is largely being propped up by the dollar being the reserve currency.
Couple things was surprised Neil was as common sense as he is and on investing too ... perfect on his analysis - NO and none of us are ... predicting the future is hard .... all the free give aways and things the gov . has done .... I dont' think he looked at the Constitutional aspect ... ... I got an impression that all the other "4th Turnings " this happened and then we got back on track ...men rose set it right and off we go to do it again ... well maybe not this time ... lot different and many people as he talked about the younger want a " King " dictator - once you get one ... he don't go away .....
Speaking as an older Gen-Xer, the reason we are behind in everything including politics, is because we’ve been ignored since day one. Our mothers were taken out of the home in large numbers (first Gen for that) and put in the work force permanently. We were alone most of the time figuring out the world, solving our problems, and raising ourselves. We don’t have time for everybody else’s bullshit. We survived and made our own way and have no patience for whining and demanding that’s overtaking our world right now. We honestly feel as though we have no value to anyone. We’ve gone from listening to Boomers to listening to millennials. I don’t think anyone would like it if we started taking over because we’d put your house key on a chain around your neck and tell you to deal with it.
Wow. This guy's wrong thinking about debt and credit is the reason the middle class has disappeared and the wealth gap has widened. Look at Donald Trump who said he loves debt. Compare him to most people crushed under student and housing debt.
Fixed debt for cash flowing assets is almost always good for an individual. Debt for liabilities is almost always bad for an individual. That’s one of the big drivers of the wealth gap (along w the fed), and a lot of it comes down to financial education and discipline in individuals.
I think its wild to go threw all that history, Finance, inflation and not speak one time about hard money and what happened when we went on a full fiat standard.
I was worried when he mentioned war and very encouraged by his ultimately optimistic expectations even with the promised agitations of the next few years.
I question Howe’s cycles (turnings). He starts the narrative more or less with the American Revolution (yeah, he mentioned the Glorious Revolution in passing), then the Civil War, them WW2, and then now as crisis points. What happened to WW1? Possibly nothing changed the world as much as WW1, but he never mentions it. The Vietnam War upended America in ways that we’re still dealing with. He says that 9/11 had no lasting effect. What? The Patriot Act and the ensuing diminishment of freedoms is “no lasting effect”? i think he cherry picks historical pivot points to fit his story. Also, America is not the whole world. Russia and China have had completely different crisis timelines. How does that all play into the “turnings” paradigm? Never mentioned.
Exactly! Only those losers are in total control and will not give up their corrupt grip easily. Lest we never forget, many wars were fought/contrived for them THEM to get there..💪😡
The FED will do what it takes to keep this balloon up, buy stocks ,bonds ,junk bonds real estate, mortgages ,loans, even car loans. we will see 250 trillion on the so called FED balance sheet. which is another name for printed funny money. take on all the debt you can because you won't have to pay it back, live it up and enjoy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
He argues inflation is an economic equalizer , but thats only for those with a certain financial profile of being in debt to creditors. For the rest, The wages won’t rise fast enough to keep up with rising cost of needs.
Maybe directly. But indirectly, debt creates new small businesses, which create new products, which creates new competition, which creates higher wages. So indirectly equalizes wealth as well.
@@robyhartland852 That is the myth perpetuated to enable the endless black hole of government spending. People create new small businesses, not debt. For a small business, debt is just another bill to pay.
@@robyhartland852 I think that idea has pretty much been debunked because the middle class in America has been steadily shrinking with each “bust” cycle. Big money has first access to the bailouts and easy credit while the middle class is left to austerity and the perverse result is that as all the malinvestment creates huge bubbles it inevitably leads to larger and larger collapses and with each cycle the middle class gets wiped out and greater and greater percentages of the wealth flow to the largest banks, large cap stocks and hedge funds that reap the benefits of artificially low interest rates and Fed bailouts while the middle class is wiped out and their market share is absorbed by corporate interests.
You bet your ass if I try and get a loan I won’t have a .25% interest rate and if my company goes under I won’t get a bailout. It’s the opposite of a free market it’s corporatism and at its heart is the boom bust cycle created by artificially low interest rates (near zero or even negative) on government debt and collateral, which creates an environment that favors political insiders with access to all the benefits of governmental largesse and bailouts, and the malivestment and inefficient allocation of capital brought about by this cheap credit has become so bad I believe it is systemic and it will ultimately unwind in a GREATER DEPRESSION wiping out much of the remnants of the middle class and also much of the corporate world including many of the most exposed hedge funds.
End the Fed and bring back sound money that is determined in the marketplace (not by corrupt governments) so that markets can function fairly and freely once again and these dramatic boom and bust cycles will become less severe and will be contained to certain sectors of the economy instead of being systemic! Only then will opportunity come back and the economy and middle class will be healed.
Unfortunately it will take severe deflationary collapse before any real change comes to the central bank, fractional reserve lending system that has essentially financialized the whole economy and this fact is seen in that valuations in the stock market have become so malinvested and stretched beyond all rationality (because of this flood of newly created cash and huge amounts of leverage) that corporations like Apple are trading 300x their actual year to date earnings.
That ^^ is malinvestment created by over 300 trillion (Counting debt derivatives in the shadow banking system that number could be much higher as much as 900 trillion dollars) in private, corporate and governmental debt, a bailout/insider trading culture and suppressed interest rates!
Think of how overvalued all the large indexes are and how much debt all the nations of the world have accumulated in just a few years. And interest rates on the short end of bonds are zero or negative? With inflation raging at 5.5% even by government metrics such as the CPI? The interest rate should be 6% minimum on the short end in a free market. But central banks buy up all the bonds to keep those rates down with central bank notes.
We no longer have free markets people need to understand this. That is why the middle class has been shrinking since the first major collapse post 2000.
It all really began when the dollar lost its status as the singular gold standard currency in my opinion. But that is a whole other topic and personally I have begun to believe that what money is should be determined by the marketplace and never by government, because governments inevitably corrupt money through fraud so that they can finance huge spending deficits in order to wage wars and this also allows governments to grow far larger than they ever could if they had to actually tax the populace directly for everything they wanted to spend.
That’s also another reason for a flat tax, or an equal tax rate for every citizen, because it actually makes government more politically accountable for their waste as they can’t play politics with the tax rate and cater to one group over another. A flat tax also usually leads to a lower tax rate overall and less governmental spending.
Exactly. Debtors whose debt was used to purchase assets
also assets that the middle class buy with debt may be apreciating in nominal but will depreciate in real terms.
inflation makes saving impossible. it damns you to a lifetime of servitude
We need him to come back.
A case of whistling past the graveyard.
Regarding Neil's comment that we can inflate our way out of this mess... point made BUT due to the fact that we're FAR deeper in debt than any prior generation of Americans (or any nation since the rise of civilization) the risk of hyperinflation is far greater than at any time in the past and that will create social disruption on a scale we've never seen in our nation. Look to the Weimar republic to learn what resulted from hyperinflation there.
That's a prediction that probably has no basis and based only on a subjective "feeling"...
That the national economy in 2 1/2 years will suffer a moment of inflation followed by a long term downturn.
After this perfect storm is that when they strait a war.?
What Mr. Howe doesn't consider is that in 1945 the US had 23,000 metric tons of gold - 1/4th of the gold held by ALL the world's central banks. I can't see them getting away with creating enough "money" to buy up all the bonds institutions will be dumping today. Also, while inflation reduces the real value of debt it also causes wage gains to lag price increases. It's not the working stiffs who will do well, it's the holders of real assets, like real estate, stocks of oil & gas producers, gold & silver, etc.
You get to sacrifice just like your grandpappy. All so the elite don't get to bite the bullet. And people still believe Covid "accidently" leaked from a lab. LOL
Is Argentina back? I haven't seen that one yet. Thought only the financial district is prosperous and funtional and the remainder of society travels for money, barters and rations. I'd love to see updated documentaries if anyone can pass them on!
Beind a little kid in 50s was great. Lots of optimism, lots of neighbor kids in the new housing tracts, everybody was poor but we had houses, great pyblic education, lots of cheap gas so we poor kids got lots of vacations in new national parks, uncrowded highways. Parents kept getting better jobs. People were getting funded retirements. We had IGY, science was funded, smart poor kids got all kinds of special programs. Heck, everybody was still poor, it was not a stigma, so WE kids didnt know we were poor. We got great educations.
Useful theory but I think his personal observations are filtered through a liberal bias, much like everything else
How about price controls on gasoline?
Yea inflation is great when you don't produce anything but dollars... He's smoking that good stuff.
It is interesting how 4T thinking resonates with Peter Turchin's Structural Demographic Theory.
It is people, who make the system work - not history. It boils down to having a functioning moral compass to hold things together. Societies, throughout history, who went the way of greed, self-serving interests , "me first" and "as long as I have mine, to hell with everyone else" attitudes will bring the entire system down, to its knees. No matter what the powers that be attempt in their efforts to hold things together, unless a good, moral compass is paramount within people's lives, Society will fall apart.
Can’t let inflation get out of control?…still asleep Neil?
Apply at the Washington Post Neil…and money printing has no concern eh?
And the outcome if wage hikes do not eventuate in an inflationary era?
So inflation is our friend.
There are so many market imbalances. A retirement crisis is coming for decades to come. Inflation is not going to "fix" the bigger problems that are coming because of irresponsible government policies over the last 2 decades.
Demographics. The largest generation has or is entering retirement and this group is on a fixed income. Inflation is in no way helping anyone already on a fixed income and experiencing the largest medical bills of their life.
In 1928 everyone presented put your money in the stock market, you'll make money then black Friday crash. Sounds familiar!
Inflation is a fiat killer. The system is breaking down…. It seems like we are going off the rails
Debt is more than
All money's taken in. Default is same as government crash not paying it's Bill's.
I liked him until 15:16. Why is the financial welfare of "minorities" more worthy than the relative financial welfare of Whites?
I loved the statement about our economic future: "... nothing was written..."
I don't suppose there's any chance you know about the digital ID you'll be required to wear in order to exist under total subjugation -- or die. The entire planet is preparing. You don't notice anything strange? You should see all the shit that IS ACTUALLY WRITTEN about now. It's always been your choice.
He's a typical upper middle class liberal Boomer. He doesn't think it will be that bad for him. Everyone else? Let 'em eat cake! I think he's in for a very rude awakening.
Sorry, don't think you challenged him on inflation.
Neil Howe is very entertaining and very delusional.
I agree wish they would have called him out on his "inflation is good for you" propaganda
The entire economy is based on a ten story tall stack of delusions, ponzi like schemes, inevitable FAIL waiting to materialize, oligarchic scams, social fictions and wealth redistribution schemes. The whole damned mess is a man made game with arbitrary rules created to serve those who sit on top of "the pile".
@@thomaswhaley4024 And the energy source of ALL these things is fake money. We have all been tricked by the master trickster into accepting fake money as if it were real. That is why I call fiat currency Mammon Money.
@@thomaswhaley4024 Also, if we stop accepting their fake money in exchange for our goods and services, all these scams will collapse in a month.
I’m not sure you have read his work (The Fourth Turning). I read the book in 1998 and his prognosis for us in 1997was 100% spot on (in fact, it is amazing). Don’t dismiss his advice.
Until the other countries by pass the dollar and the dollar is threatened as the reserve currency.
I just got a 3% raise . Yay. So, no Neil, no sign of any huge wage hikes yet. Sorry wish there was a 20% raise in my future to match consumer prices but let's be honest there isn't. Not for me. Not for anybody.
But I'm still hopefull I'll wake in the year 2033 and it'll be 1950 all over again.
Lol. His inflation talk is obtuse. He speaks as though America in the 40s, 50, and early 60s wasn't the world's greatest creditor nation, and fails to differentiate the current American predicament of being the world's largest debtor nation. We went from economic might to dependant on others financial might. We brought women into the work force, devaluing labor, we exported our labor abroad, devaluing much more so, we are out of options. We are also currently at near 0 fed funds rates and incredibly low short and long term treasuries.. not sure how financial repression doesn't turn into something much uglier.
I wish Peter Schiff would have a one on one conversation with this guy.
Losing lots of respect for what he is saying about economy. Understands history, not business outside of academia
I read something interesting about the Great Depression that a major cause was the drop in the price of horse feed caused by the disruption of the automobile. I think the next depression will be caused by the collapse of Big Oil caused by the disruption of the electric car. My next car will be electric and I'll recharge it with cost free solar.
There is nothing better about BIDEN'S way of life.
There’s is NOTHING permanent about Biden’s way of life. Or Trumps. Or Clinton’s. Or Bush’s. It’s just a season in a much larger cycle.
Oh get over yourself 🙄
nothing particularly insightful
INFLATION IS A TAX ON SAVINGS YOU DINGUS
I don't see how taking away from savers and giving to borrowers helps Main Street. Inflation is nothing more than a stealth tax.
There's no way we'll get off this debt bubble that easy. We have to go through the deflationary depression to morally change the fabric of society.
Blockade the cities. Don't let them out.
Imagine a Millennial standing in a soup lineup.
@@pyroboobysmith359
Could be like post 1989 Japan and no line soup happened .
Anyway i doubt parents of millennials ( the boomers / gen x ? ) would let them down ?
I dont not think the generations we speak off in the 1890/1900 were as rich as those of today ….
@@sivi9741 Yes, but that generation could own a home and keep it. Now there’s so many taxes, expenses, insurance, and burdens to kill ownership so you constantly work for paying bills. Millenials will own almost nothing, not even the phone on their pocket.
@@pyroboobysmith359 😲 Where have YOU been! ? I've seen millennials at the soup kitchen!
I think their is a flaw in his perception that inflation is a solution for inequality of wealth. Rich people don't invest in treasuries. The Fed does. Rich buy farmland and commodities right now. They will sell the public what they need to survive and get even richer.
Exactly......what garbage. Only one way to fix this.
Not necessarily. Expecting inflation eventually (even if there is deflation first). Older people people are the savers so will lose wealth. Younger people with mortgages/debt will see it inflated away. That's wealth transfer. Not saying I like the debt mentality, just that that's the way it is.
@@Ruth-wu3vf Nonsense. There has been plenty of inflation so far and wages have not kept up. the generation that is working through hyper inflation will essentially do so for little to no reward. Never has inflation benefited the working class.... Ever.
Enjoy starvation
@@pistilliproductions2930 Absolutely right! My father, who was born in 1913, used to tell about his childhood in Germany during hyperinflation. They ate sawdust bread. At first the sawdust was used to dust the pans. But as conditions got worse they mixed sawdust into the flour to stretch it. When my grandfather got paid, one kid would leave school and go spend every last Mark on whatever was available because the money became worthless the next day. I’m so sorry I lost it over time, but I used to have a billion Mark note from that era.
This isn’t going to go well.
@@pistilliproductions2930 We are not in hyperinflation. All I'm saying is from what I remember of the 1970s anyone with debt (usually younger people) saw it inflated away, whereas older people (who disliked debt) found their savings decimated. Inflation was much higher than it is now. I prefer a lower debt non-inflationary environment myself. The reality is many small business employers cannot afford to pay higher wages.
I would really like it if privacy was valued by the younger generations. Gen X remembers privacy, but millennials don't seem to care much about it.
My Zoomer children seem to react to the Millennial's. They like YT and watching content. None are interested in social media otherwise. The are very private in that sense. It's cycle not a straight line.
The only way to regain a sense of privacy again is to either isolate yourself from the panopticon or dismantle the techno-industrial system. Choose wisely.
Gen X and Zoomers have a lot in common. Neither understand skinny jeans nor instagram
Gen x and millenials need to value freedom more, we shouldnt give anyone the power to spy on us
@@retvrn777 Freedom has been conflated with greed and corruption. Because tyrants will always survive free times.
Agree with most of what Neil is saying, but he’s wrong on inflation helping the middle class. Inflation helps those who have assets not the average wage slave.
Eh i think the point hes making is as long as inflation isnt insane the rise in standard of living due to inflation would still outweigh the inflation for most people
@@retvrn777 How exactly does you standard of living rise when the price of bare essentials (food, petrol, gas& elec) is going through the roof due to not only inflation but also climate change hoax taxes designed to turn the populous into serfs?
@@danielmccarthy3095 Don’t forget rise in real estate/rent and loss of power in pensions/fixed income. The poor are becoming poorer, the rich are using this printed funny money to buy up assets like never before.
The point he's making is that inflation = bad for creditors, good for debtors. Most middle class people are heavily in debt (this obviously excludes some of the poorest Americans, who may never had access to credit). School debt, car debt, credit card debt, etc. Once inflation surpasses debt interest rates -- people's incomes increases will quickly surpasses compounding interest, making debt easier to pay down.
@@iraqiimmigrant2908 In the long term inflation might be okay but they'll use the pandemic(bioweapon) to justify the inflation. They just can't stand to level with honestly.
I completely disagree with the idea that the price of anything going up by crazy amounts is great......its great for the top 1% but it's a huge tax and burden on the rest of usmiddle class or what's left of the middle class . These huge wage I creases he's talking about don't even cover 1/4 of the cost increases we have to pay now because of inflation . 100k a year job does not get you the same quality of life like it did right before the scamdemic. Food , housing , cars all the largest portions of our spending has gone up 15% or more in the past year and wages going up 3,4% don't cover it . Inflation is a tax on the middle class prepare yourselves for whats about to happen
How is hyperinflation great for the 1%? Its bad for everybody who was a saver and good for everybody who is in debt.
The answer is to get rid of the central-banking system and replace it with honest money - gold and silver (and, perhaps, a true cryptocurrency).
I believe his point is simply that as long as the standard of living increases faster than inflation its still a net benefit ecspecially for the middle class, i dont think you realize how far we are living beyond our means rn, we produce nothing as a country, at best we come outta this looking like japan at worst mexico
@@retvrn777 The standard of living in the USA has been declining since 2001.
5:09 "Fiscal policy will be unable to neutralize" this is a powerful statement and it is true. They have exhausted all of their options and nature will take its course. As my mother used to say "there is a high eventual cost to easy solutions" and this country has been living on easy solutions for a long time.
You nailed it.
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So true. Their decisions flag that the Fed is either ignorant or arrogant, maybe both.
GenX has been slow to advance in corporate leadership because the boomers refuse to retire!!! The only way GenX has a chance is to leave the big corporations and move to smaller startups.
YES 🙌
Why do you think they won’t retire?
The politicians aren’t going to retire until after their funeral.
I was ready to retire YESTERDAY! What’s their hold up?! They can’t take the money with them.
@@jessicamai7783 I think it's a mix of power and more money. The boomers at the top of large companies are pretty much selfish, which is pretty characteristic of the generation. Take take take and never give anything. They are the cicadas of the business world. Of course this is a generalization, but fairly consistent behavior. They invented scorched earth policies. They grew up hardened and angry coming out of WWII, which was the origin of their "every man for himself" attitude. Nasty in business and will stab you in the back while smiling to your face. The ancient politicians are the epitome of this behavior.
Such entitlement.
Work for what you want.
Boomers don't retire because they have no competitent successors. This is on you.
@@jimmichels7844 Sorry if I gave you the impression I was entitled. I've done ok by myself and can't really complain. My comment is just a generalized view on the topic..GenXers have a lot of experience and when they're looking at boomers in their early 70's not moving into retirement, I think there's an argument the boomers won't leave and have stayed past their welcome.
There are a lot of crusty old boomers not willing to let go...perhaps I hit a nerve?
I would generally agree the millennials are more entitled than other generations. Many I've hired think they're ready to sit in the C-suite right out of school with zero practical experience.
"Takes away from creditors and gives to debtors", seems to me that creditors in this context are people who work for a fixed wage or have savings denominated in dollars, and debtors are wild speculators of price appreciation and decadent spenders. I am not so sure I see the upside to all of that.
There is no upside to it.
I am neither.
There is never an upside for the average man.
@@lancobear8894 Never! has inflation been a benefit for the average person and wages for them never keep pace with it.
He sounds like the FED inflation is good, paying more is good, a lot of silly BS talk. HE thinks this helps with inequality?
It is difficult to see the positive in inflation, when it eats away the value of your pension. The kids of rich boomers will be rich by inheritance, the unequal distribution of wealth is less a generational problem than an individual problem. Trying to pitch the young against the old is just a divide and conquer game of the billionaires.
Dont underestimate the Boomer's ability to not leave anything to their offspring.
the most malevolent boomer cannot plan to spend the last dime before the day of his death. Where i live heirs are entiteled to half of the heritage, irrespective of any tetament. Even if the relationship between parents and kids is really bad, the kids will get something, and this is in my opinion a personal thing and not a group thing.@@gauloise6442
It is wonderful to have such an insightful person still here with us to share his ideas. I have followed Howe since the late 90s and found his theory to be spot on! While I don’t have an opinion on inflation I do wonder if we can maintain our country socially or even from outside threats (adversaries). Virtually all 4th turnings involve conflict. Think about the last three (out of the six identified in the book): WWII, Civil War and Revolution. Will we dodge that bullet this time around? I’m not so sure we will. Inflation may be the least of our problems!
The ability to see the use of Capital as the illusion that it has become, is a first step.....
He's really got some unbelievable blind spots.
100%. Taking no account of demographic change and the war being waged against the middle class, working class and white people. He sounds like a Hoover institution speaker..
There is no spring coming guys
Agreed. He's pretty off IMO
@@niciassmith1204
How is the attack made on middle class and by who ?
Which side of politic spectrum ?
Hint: lowest tax since ww2 for corporations and the rich …..
Check the numbers how high it was.
That period , they didn’t even have a FED put , today’s the market have a FED put and it’s free on top of it ( lowest tax toward society in 60 years while bailing them out with debts and inflation) .
We forget culture changes. We r not in the 1970s more like Rome. When societies degenerates in all good social aspect that it collapses.
Good interview! Very interesting, but I think wealthy individuals, will fair much better in high inflation then the middle class, and poor. Fuel prices, and rent will just about wipe out the poor. Look what's happening in California, and I believe it's going to get much worse.
Did the poor fare well in the Weimar Republic during hyperinflation? Only the people with gold. Do the poor fare well in Venezuela and Cuba with high inflation ? Nope
Absolutely agree. What’s going to happen to all the renters in California when they get too old to work and don’t have a retirement account to subsidize their small social security check? If you think the homeless problem is bad now, just wait.
Agree
@@ld4122 They won't retire. This is one of the reasons none of the younger generations, including GenX, are moving up.
The gen Xers are still too busy supporting their 30 something kids to have time to become prominent in either business or politics
He seems slightly out of touch with reality...
I think he's a paid fed promoter.
Great interview, thank you. Neil Howe and William Strauss work is remarkable and beneficial. In terms of the Kondratieff Wave and the 18.6 year real estate cycle, if history does continue to repeat our research shows that after 2026 is when US land prices will start their downward trend, then the rest of the investment markets are likely to collapse from around 2027, for at least 4 years. It's like multiple cycles peak or topping at the same time, and then collapsing at the same time. Thank you again.
Neil Howe praises price controls and the New Deal which caused Soviet-style famines and the worst unemployment disaster in American history ... with not even the sense to make counterbalancing discussions of supply shortages.
> _If an engineer makes a mistake, for example, and their building collapses killing hundreds, they are ruined_
_In the same vain, if someone who’s only profession is being an intellectual makes a mistake and millions die there is virtually no accountability_
-Thomas Sowell
[Disliked] - he makes sense with the cycles of order and leisure, but this specific video's display is a kind of intellectualism that is reckless
High progressive income and inheritance tax rates in the post-WW II years were the chief tool of financial repression that limited US wealth inequality and paid down wartime debt -- not inflation; throughout the late Forties, Fifties, and into the mid-Sixties, the US was on a gold standard until the Guns and Butter policies of the 1960s forced the country (in 1971) into the full fiat "petro-dollar" era still operating today.
LeLocle Vietnam was such a uneducated blunder, made with ignorant fear. Vietnam was a FRIEND during ww2, then we and the French STABED them in the BACK! 😡
@14:50 a more plausible explanation for the gains and improvements seen in the 40, 50 and 60 is during that time, we had relatively sound money as in a gold standard. Contrary to what was claimed, inflation accelerates wealth inequality as the recipients of new money benefit disproportionately from the poor who earn it after inflation. This phenomenon was noted by economists in the 1700s and again with the accelerating wealth inequality today.
This guy makes me feel like a 30 year old in Logan's Run that he is trying to persuade to enter Carousel.
Wow someone else knows this movie fom the 70s! Michel York and Farrah Fawcett.
Another relevant 70s movies is Soylent Green about overpopulated NYC with not enough to eat. Charlton Heston, Chuck Conners & Edward G Robinson.
we got a runner....
Yes I forgot this movie that may come true...Running Man. Arnold S, Richard Dawson and Jesse Ventura as Capt Freedom.
We may also be heading for Mad Max. Mel Gibson.
Very interesting discussion. Adam is one of the finest interviewers out there!
That's extremely kind of you to say, John. Not sure if it's deserved, but many thanks for it!!
Think big about our future he says.....like what guy? A house I own? A non broke government? How about we start with hiking trails you don't have to pay to park at?
Boomer generationalist telling Gen X financial realist how great inflation really is.
Boomers have seen it several times
I think folks are misinterpreting Neil here. He's saying that THOSE IN POWER love inflation because it extends their time running the system. And he's making the objective observation that a currency crisis (think Weimar) does indeed reduce the disparity between rich & poor by decimating EVERYONE'S wealth. I don't get the sense he's rooting for that though.
@@Wealthion If you think Weimar decimated the wealthy and brought them down to the level of the poor, you need to relook at history. The wealthy in most cases became even more wealthy in terms of real assets. Hyperinflation decimates the middle class. As for the poor, they never have much to lose. So Howe is wrong, if that is indeed his interpretation.
He comes right and says inflation is a tool central banks are using and he agrees with it. Neil said it was good and helps with inequality. Maybe your misinterpreting him.
Debt will be destroyed through default (by inflation and/or deflation). You can't beat natural law. Expect pain, there really is no way out. The establishment will circle the wagons, double down on their failure, and protect their own gains at the expense of the plebs. More coercion, more extortion, more fraud to come...
Yea can we lose the 75- 83 year old politicians?
TERM LIMITS
Interest rates can't rise as much as they went down in the last 40 years. Not even 10% as much, else the debt time bomb explodes and brings down all financial markets with it.
We should all thank mr. Powel and Our fantastic politicians for all this “ wonderful inflation” 🤡🥸🤣
Insanity lol
"everything is fine..." 🤣
"There will be growth in the Spring" - C. Gardner
"buy call of the crocodile" - F. Gardner
Is this guy on acid? Inflation brings high salaries? Tell that to the Mexicans. My Mexican grandmother’s teacher’s monthly pension went from about about $300 a month to $30 a month in a short perdido of time during 1987ish absolutel
To be objective Mr howe has contributed a lot to Frameworks thinking about history and Cycles. But as of pointed out it's incredibly frustrating that Adam doesn't even ask a basic question. If inflation is such a wonderful equalizer and so good for the masses how come it's not joy and Rainbows in Venezuela, Argentina, Nigeria, pre-World War Germany the list is endless. Clearly Neil howe politically and culturally is just another big government leftist. I think he's going to have very little to say to help people who are starving to death because they can't afford food due to inflation.
Shaggy has aged well!
I have listened to thousands of podcasts and this is the first one that I have heard Inflation being a good thing or Equalizer - I have read his book but his view on inflation a little strange - We all know our debt situation world wide with derivatives never before seen at this level - Just don't see how this ends well - God help us if the Kings decide to go to War
There is a severe shortage of people who want to work.
Howe is an extremely terrifying individual. His views on monetary policy are insane.
Interesting interview, Adam, but I wish you had spent more time asking Neil to give his forecast of changes in the financial markets over the next few years. Are we heading for a deflationary financial collapse (1929-1932 style) or something else? Perhaps Neil isn't the right guy for that question, but his response would have been quite interesting. I agree with others commenting earlier that "inflationism" (orchestrated by the US Government, the Federal Reserve, & the TBTF Commercial Banks) has been very destructive to our nation - and only benefits the richest 1% at the expense of the lower and middle classes. It needs to end.
I like Mike's assessment. Wrt the 4th turning, look on the bright side. If the 2008 crash led to a decade (2010s) similar to the 1930s (80 years ago) then we have been through half the winter already. But, if the 2020s mirrors the 1940s then we are in a war of sorts (with China challenging USA etc), but curiously the unity you would normally expect to 'fight back' doesn't seem to be there. I can't see any alternative to more inflation eventually because I don't think they can raise interest rates, just like 80 years ago. That means any govt response, has to be fiscal but the money has to be spent wisely on directly productive activity, not welfare.
Ruth,
I can see a black swan event. China invade Taiwan for the power of chips making, the necessity for the supremacy of China. I cannot predict the reaction of United States.
@@Kukaboora Neither can I, but the US is taking steps to onshore chip making. The plants are expensive to set up. I hope Taiwan and Japan are safe, but also at risk are countries surrounding the South China Sea; this is the second largest naval trade route world-wide (possibly the largest now) and has resources; that's why China wants control of it.
The unity will be there. It will emerge quickly once American understand the threat.
A lot of people I see are getting worked up over his inflation discussion. However if you listen to Lyn Alden's theory about this decade being like the 1940s, she'll explain it a lot more technically sound than Neil.
And if you listen to Peter Schiff you will know what is really going on. Lyn is soft selling what is coming at us.
Interesting -- in Part 1 expresses specific criticism for Trump , criticism for Reagan, accolades for Rosevelt. 🤔 while Neil presents as an interesting and affable individual he definitely has a leaning towards socialism. Corporate and public welfare is what has created all this mess. Solutions of the past have typically been to throw money at any problem / challenge . How’s that been working so far !? 😂🤣 His solutions seem to support more of the same ole same ole!
Yes. Have you seen Mike Maloneys video where he states Roosevelt committed Treason ?! Or about the deeper views that the banksters created the Bolshevik revolution and all wars ?
But he’s not ideological- or so he claims, not directly, but by his outlook and solutions.
Taking us off the gold standard and becoming the petro dollar, the creation of the Fed and also money printing in huge amounts since 2009ish created all this mess. Also moving our companies to China also and that in 1970’s Bush Sr went to China to work out deals since Nixon opened that up to. So basically all the globalist elites.
The tell is early on he mentions he lives in DC. He’s a swamp creature even if unintentionally. Take a lot of his predictions with a grain of salt. This Fourth Turning won’t be like any that came before because the “country” is far more gutted than in earlier periods.
Thanks for that comment. I thought I was the only one listening and adamantly disagreeing with him. He has interesting insights but Is not understanding the cause if this mess
System will collapse. Pureblood warlords mount up.
Wait a second. He thinks inflation is the solution because it allows debtors out of their debt. Thus, it's good for the little guy who is essentially a deadbeat borrower. But what about all the heavily leveraged and indebted companies in the SPX? Let's not talk about that debt also being reduced by inflation. At the same time, salaries are always the last to go up, and low end salaries are the last of the salaries to go up. I work in high tech and they are giving pay raises and benny increases that I didn't even ask for. But at the low end, the service worker gets nothing.
So, NO, inflation is not a miracle cure for everyone. It's only good for the rich. It is a wealth transfer mechanism from low end workers to the money elite. Always has been, always will be. If low end workers ever want a fair shake, they need to stop accepting fake money as if it were real. Its easier than it sounds. Make your money in dollars, pay your bills, and if you have $30 left over at the end of the month, buy a silver coin with it. DO NOT leave it in the banking system. Starve the banking system of low end worker savings. And then of middle class savings. The entire system will collapse and they will have to return to honest money again. And then if rich people want their car fixed, their lawn mowed, or their toilet cleaned they will have to pay in silver or gold (or the backed paper equivalent) instead of this fake money which is printed into existence on a whim and given to elite people to spend first.
The whole thing is a total scam.
Many viewers feel China will start WWIII. Not feeling empowered.
Very interesting points, the world is now a very competitive place and the US won’t be “coming back” that’s my only point of contention.
How about bail ins and currency reform ?
Officials are lying all day long
Adam,, love your interviewing style. You are fantastic and get along so well with all your guests and treat them all with respect. Thanks for the great shows!
Please get Jim Rickards on Wealthion
Fantastic work Adam. You are being an excellent leader in this time where we need them the most. Thanks for all your efforts
I do not agree with your optimistic observation unless you are among the wealthy because a lot of citizens are homeless and will continue to be homeless.
It’s still possible to raise children to adult at 16.
Part 1 was good. Part 2 not so much. Inflation is good for the average person? I don't think so. Today is much different than previous historical parallels. Our infrastructure and manufacturing have been so hollowed out, it will take a long time to recover, if ever. America is largely being propped up by the dollar being the reserve currency.
Theories, theories, and more theories. We'll see how it goes. I don't know of anyone with a working crystal ball.
Couple things was surprised Neil was as common sense as he is and on investing too ... perfect on his analysis - NO and none of us are ... predicting the future is hard .... all the free give aways and things the gov . has done .... I dont' think he looked at the Constitutional aspect ... ... I got an impression that all the other "4th Turnings " this happened and then we got back on track ...men rose set it right and off we go to do it again ... well maybe not this time ... lot different and many people as he talked about the younger want a " King " dictator - once you get one ... he don't go away .....
Exactly right about getting a dictator.
Speaking as an older Gen-Xer, the reason we are behind in everything including politics, is because we’ve been ignored since day one. Our mothers were taken out of the home in large numbers (first Gen for that) and put in the work force permanently. We were alone most of the time figuring out the world, solving our problems, and raising ourselves. We don’t have time for everybody else’s bullshit. We survived and made our own way and have no patience for whining and demanding that’s overtaking our world right now. We honestly feel as though we have no value to anyone. We’ve gone from listening to Boomers to listening to millennials. I don’t think anyone would like it if we started taking over because we’d put your house key on a chain around your neck and tell you to deal with it.
I feel like GenX has dealt with the BS of two entitled generations and just want to be left alone in their private oasis of sanity.
I wonder if Neil's scheme relates to markets, also? Are we coming out of the 4th Turning in the precious metals and resources? Hmmmm...
This guy makes me love demography. It's hilarious. He's my favorite demographer cos he's the only one I know, but I Always Click Everything Howe.
Wow. This guy's wrong thinking about debt and credit is the reason the middle class has disappeared and the wealth gap has widened. Look at Donald Trump who said he loves debt. Compare him to most people crushed under student and housing debt.
Fixed debt for cash flowing assets is almost always good for an individual. Debt for liabilities is almost always bad for an individual. That’s one of the big drivers of the wealth gap (along w the fed), and a lot of it comes down to financial education and discipline in individuals.
Inflation is a GOOD thing and will solve inequality. Right. 🤬
What about inflations destructivness on savers? I would like to know his response
I think its wild to go threw all that history, Finance, inflation and not speak one time about hard money and what happened when we went on a full fiat standard.
*through
I was worried when he mentioned war and very encouraged by his ultimately optimistic expectations even with the promised agitations of the next few years.
The other turnings did not end so well so why should this one be different?
Inflation is good to wipe out the debt....Sounds good on the surface!
Every 4T has involved Total War. Total War this time would make for a bad 4T.
There is a LOT of Military build up in all the bad actor states.
It always leads to war....
I question Howe’s cycles (turnings). He starts the narrative more or less with the American Revolution (yeah, he mentioned the Glorious Revolution in passing), then the Civil War, them WW2, and then now as crisis points. What happened to WW1? Possibly nothing changed the world as much as WW1, but he never mentions it. The Vietnam War upended America in ways that we’re still dealing with. He says that 9/11 had no lasting effect. What? The Patriot Act and the ensuing diminishment of freedoms is “no lasting effect”? i think he cherry picks historical pivot points to fit his story. Also, America is not the whole world. Russia and China have had completely different crisis timelines. How does that all play into the “turnings” paradigm? Never mentioned.
Exactly! Only those losers are in total control and will not give up their corrupt grip easily. Lest we never forget, many wars were fought/contrived for them THEM to get there..💪😡
Howe is missing many parts of the puzzle when he talks about America's history from 1940 through 2022. Inflation is a cancer.
The FED will do what it takes to keep this balloon up, buy stocks ,bonds ,junk bonds real estate, mortgages ,loans, even car loans. we will see 250 trillion on the so called FED balance sheet. which is another name for printed funny money. take on all the debt you can because you won't have to pay it back, live it up and enjoy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
great, thank you.
reduce risk? so crazyass out of the money TESLA call options all round?? YOLO.........,