It would have been easier and advantageous to fire Larry Scott and those idiot University presidents back when things began to slide. LOL, short memories out there apparently. ESPN did offer the deal first to the PAC. Turned it down flat. Big12 gladly took that deal. One is a power conference and one is not. It’s the complete incompetence of the PAC leadership that is at fault, not the networks.
Fix it HOW? ESPN and FOX didn't cause it. PAC 12 STUPIDITY for DECADES caused it. ESPN and FOX just got fed up dealing with IDIOTS and moved on. ESPN STILL offered the PAC 12 MORE MONEY that the PAC 12 was worth in the end/. And the PAC 12 stayed STUPID. And it sounds like the PAC2 wants to CONTINUE to be STUPID by trying to REBUILD the PAC 12 with G5 schools.
The top 3-6 MW schools are certainly angling for a better g5 conference and might find a way to settle with the MW if they join hands with the PAC-2. Perhaps they let out the top in exchange for a bag of cash and a long-term scheduling agreement?
@@TheBigMountainPodcast It's no secret that (for example) SDSU and Boise think they deserve better, and it doesn't look like there's going to be power openings right away. If they could get the logistics down, there's no doubt they would conspire with the PAC-2 about bounding from the MW and figuring out a "best of the rest" scenario. They want to look as pretty as they can and have the best shot at eligible bachelors.
The plan is to put together a west wing to compliment calford after the acc has an exodus. Cal, Stan, WSU, OSU, SDSU, CSU would be a solid and practical west wing for the ACC. Plan B would be to join MW.
@@dgart7434 They can and will actually do that. ACC only needs to have 14 teams to keep their TV Deal and lose no Revenue from it. ACC has a Pro Rata to add New teams IF it need to Rebuild to 14 and the TV Contract specifically says it can be ANY 14 teams... it does not have to include ANY current Members (although obviously some of those 14 will be current Members). ESPN has INVESTED too much to in the ACC Network to take a chance that the ACCN just disappears. Remember that the TV Contract and ACCN were created at the same time. ESPN made sure the ACC would survive the Loss of some teams in the TV Contract to Preserve their own Interests in the ACCN. Also, remember that ESPN knows what the SEC is plotting and can GUESS what FOX and the B1G were plotting. ESPN KNEW 9 years ago what was coming and that the ACC was going to LOSE some teams. This is NOT a surprise to the ACC or ESPN it was PLANNED for in the TV Contract. The ACC Leadership is not PANICKING in any way and neither is ESPN. They were PREPARED as well as could be done for the coming Winter and will do more than SURVIVE it. They will THRIVE through it and Plant Again in the Spring.
Wazzou Oregon st Boise SD ST UNLV FRESNO UTSA Tulane Memphis USF Liberty App st UCONN ECU Texas St Colorado st. That's a decent 16 team league. Question is it worth it to ESPN or fox. I could see these teams getting 10 mill. 160 million a year!
When the cream of the crop leaves the Mwc their media deal will drop like a rock. The best teams and best markets drive revenue and these team and conferences know it. Everyone in this conversation is speculating with ridiculously limited information the administrators have and a very narrow view of the fund raising impacts at the individual school levels. As a Mwc guy at heat and WAC guy before that split, I let my emotions go and admit the PAC has much more value as a name and history to market than the MWC.
Everyone everywhere is speculating with limited information. But we are pretty sure you won’t get this angle from anywhere else. As we like to say, it’s about having a discussion, and we appreciate your comments and value your opinion.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast I know it is just a fun what if conversation, but the realization regarding the lack of information deserves multiple acknowledgments. I am not ripping on you guys, I am just trying to emphasize, we are all just spewing here, me included.
Memphis just hired Ed Scott as the new A.D He was deputy A.D at virginia and close to jim Phillips. That pushes Memphis to the front of the line when FSU and clemson get out.
@@dgart7434 If ACC loses 4 it MUST Expand by at least 1 to meet the COMPOSITION CLAUSE of TV Contact. I have it on good authority that the Future of the ACC is 20 All Sports teams + 1 (which is Notre Dame. So call it 20+1 or 21. Whatever. And I have it on good authority that the "Utah Rumor" was a TOO EARLY LEAK and that the ACC will take at least 5 to 6 Big 12 schools in 2 to 5 years. If the ACC loses 4 a little too early I BELIEVE (not I did not say I know) that UConn had a shot at being #14 to fill the Gap for the ACC. But after the Utah "news" I wonder if that is still even possible for UConn.
If Tony Altimore's charts and opinions were solid, then no one was leaving the Pac 12, especially for the for the Big 12. He then started recycling the same arguments and material with the ACC, without little to no change.
Here's my proposal for a new Pac-X, to be implemented all at once or in stages. Final membership subject to TV network approval.... First 8 (top G5 teams west of the Mississippi or on it): Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Fresno State, Tulane, Memphis, UNLV, San Diego State. Next 8 (bigger markets and/or recent football success): San Jose State, Colorado State, North Texas, Rice, UTSA, New Mexico State, Air Force, Louisiana. Final 4 (national 20-team G5 league): Liberty, James Madison, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina (or maybe sub USF if the ACC doesn't grab them).
Yes. 1 year (2024) with a 1 year option (2025) to extend. The poaching penalty is through 2026, 1 year after the possible extension. The MWC really protected themselves for a few years.
Not to mention Oregon State has $162 mil football stadium upgrade bill they were hoping the Pac12 would help pay for through the years. They have no money to throw at poaching teams.
They each will most likely pay the same settlement amount that Houston, UCF and Cincinnati had to pay. $18 mil spread out over 12 years.$1.5 mil per year
@@thatcollegefootballguydon’t forget the 10 million up front along with other fees. This is why as others have pointed out besides myself that no AAC or SBC or heck even CUSA schools are going to join a makeshift makeover conference of could-be and maybe and possibly with no incentive or financial benefit with incremental increases as would drain the schools. It’s just not realistic.
@@michaelwall3393 The MWC makes about 4 mil a year (BSU around 5 M mil). The SBC only makes 500k per team, I don't know what their exit is. The AAC makes 6.9 million per team.
@@jeh58but they the PAC-2 can’t poach and can’t pick whomever they want and create the best G6 conference. The money and media outlets and multiple media revenue sources and distributions are just not there. The PAC-2 have to either full reverse merger (and I don’t know why as MWC brand is vastly superior now as are other current G5 conference names and organizations) or join the MWC as full members or partial members like Hawaii and retain as much as possible from the settlement and try to outshine the rest as recent former P5 members and get added to ACC or Big12 later on. No former 10 PAC schools are going down to a conference that only in name recognition sounds good but everything else is just bad. The AAC and SBC have similar policies and procedures in place and like the MWC have protected themselves from being poached by PAC-2 and basically the entire Non-Autonomy system or conferences without schools being significantly penalized financially and whatever conference they go to, even if a P4. I agree the independent route and schedule agreements are not the best way to go or consider unless no alternative. Crazy cuckoo bird Wilner and wacko wizard Canzano are wrong on so many things including the value of a potential PAC with 6-8 MWC schools and then add schools from AAC and SBC. They are bitter and blind and refuse to accept they were wrong on many things and issues on these topics. An option for WazzU and OzzU, as I call them, could be keep the bulk of their Olympic sports and other NCAA sports with exception of football and maybe a few other sports in conferences such as BigWest and WCC like Hawaii. And like Hawaii, Army, Navy, FIU, UMASS, and others, be in a FBS G5 conference for football primarily, for example the MWC, and a few other sports and build a winner in most men and women sports and especially in football and in time get called up to the ACC or Big12. They will have to pay exit fees for leaving the MWC in football but would not be detrimental or unfair and would retain most of the settlement money and maybe use some of that to get out of the MWC for football and very few other sports when the time comes. In fact that might be their best option and best option for MWC too. Anyone who says Washington State and Oregon State can’t go about it like Hawaii does in MWC is wrong or just don’t want them to because feel like they are going to lose the chance to go to a P4 as WazzU and OzzU if viable and valuable enough would be chosen over the other teams because both teams were recently P5/4 schools. But in all honesty both parties involved would always see the PAC-2 schools as outsiders regardless and affiliated by default and have to not want to.
You have completely left of the next 5+ year revenue per school under different scenarios. It is not a one sided cost analysis, it is costs and benefits compared. Watering down the end product reduces per team value under a grant of rights. Plus top 6 Mwc teams can refuse to approve any new tv contract unless a reasonable exit is renegotiated. Revenue generation is broadcast, streaming, and individual school marketing under each scenario changes.
They could continue the alliances. However that doesn’t seem financially likely long term. But, time will tell. No rush for the next 12 months, but why waste time? Time is money!
@@TheBigMountainPodcast it’s obvious. They’re waiting to see if the ACC or Big 12 invite them over the next two years. They will wait at least that long. It’s my recommendation if they don’t get an invite stay Indy as long as possible. .
I don't think the ACC or the Big 12 will be inviting anybody before 2030. The Big 12 wants to see what they have with the 4 new members. The ACC already did a preventative measure by adding Cal, Stanford and SMU. Once Florida State, UNC and Clemson leave, the ACC will see what this new look conference can do. They also will most likely wait until 2030. But ESPN and Fox can definitely change that but that isn't very likely considering they don't want to spend any money right now.
A rebuilt super-G5 Pac-X conference is inevitable (unless the Big12 scoops up the best teams first). The Pac2 joining the MWC is just accepting financial defeat.
I see your point but where else are they going to go? Even the AAC wanted nothing to do with them. Before the collapse a Pac 12 AD called Brett Yormark and asked if the Big 12 could take everyone but OSU and WSU. Joining the MWC weather by name or Pac 12 name is the only option(s) they have left. Neither can afford going independent even if they could they will still be classified as a G5 and the massive pay cut that goes with the title.
@@Chevy265V8You’ll see the universities burn to the ground if they announce a MWC merger. OSU fans in particular have already told the university president as much. We’d rather have no program at all than accept relegation
@@kylewilson2819 My concern has more to do with the employees and staff of the athletic department than the coaches and athletes. If they can't get back into a power conference then both universities will be making massive staff cuts which then will put a lot of people who are single and raising multiple children or ones who have put their life's work into the program unemployed and struggling financially. So many especially from the Big 10 and SEC either don't pay attention to that or they do and just don't care.
@@Chevy265V8 It’s not just the university staff at risk either. The entire local economy is reliant on OSU being an attractive place to be. Hotels, restaurants, gas stations, and other local businesses are all reliant on students continuing to attend school and fans coming to town to watch games. Fans aren’t doing that if they are playing Little Sisters of the Poor. And students will attend other schools if Athletics fall off the map. You could easily see the entire community be uprooted and destroyed virtually overnight
Great Stuff Guys!!! My question is, could the Mountain West Conference 'dissolve' according to its bi-laws to get rid of the exit fees then 'merge' into the 'new' PAC conference?? Everyone then gets a cut of the 'new' PAC conference money.
Yes. They can. That’s why we are confident it’s will be 0-2 schools or 9-12. However, we doubt that 9 of 12 will vote to dissolve the MWC. But it is an option for a full merger with no exit fees or poaching penalties.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast I think the only way you get 9 school to vote that way is to guarantee the PAC will take those 9 that vote that way. Maybe take eight and let AF go to the AAC. The AAC would surely take AF and match them up with the other two service academies. However I have a feeling AF would not do that as they would not only need the Pentagon's permission, but they might think it would be ethically wrong to destroy a conference.
Hypothetically, I think your comment of "strength in numbers," might be something. The PAC has resources that could be beneficial to a lot of teams. However, I think a case in numbers could actually pan out in a merger of multiple smaller regional conferences. Imagine a merger on the west coast of the WCC, PAC, and MW. Take the top brands and that becomes the new PAC (with CAL/Stanford/SMU returning). BUT your not stopping there, which is also merging the American, Big East and ACC (what's left if a break up occurs). You now have a conference that spans coast to coast and could in theory command a strong media deal. Imagine matchups of Gonzaga or SDSU facing UConn, Syracuse, and (enter Big East school), or Football match ups of SDSU against Virginia, etc... Of course logistics would have to be sorted out, but with a larger number of schools all unified against the power of the SEC/Big10, I think this is where the balance could return to college sports. Sadly, the only way this would work would be un-even revenue, however I would say "on field/court success garners the victor the spoils." (meaning, if your team gets to the Final 4, the school earns a large portion of that revenue.)
The problem is , that the pac 2 has a weak footing. It still makes more sense to join the mountain west. Why throw money at a two team league. The TV contract is not there
Joining the MWC is giving up, and leaving way too much money on the table. Why settle for 5M a year when they could possibly get 12-15M? The AAC is in the 10M range, and a new Pac/Super G5 league would be higher than that, plus lock up the last football playoff spot each year.
The pac 12 should take Texas State. I live in Austin Texas home of; The University Of Texas. Kids that can’t go to Texas end up going to Texas State. It’s only 30 minute drive & or they have a city bus in Austin that takes students to San Marcos. Can you imagine the thought of Texas State saying now you can compete without leaving home. A lot of college kids go to Texas State. & My thoughts on where the pac 2 get their money from. The universities get most of their income money from enrollment. Every year they get new income money from students in general. It’s not just coming from TV money. They make more from enrollment, if I recall.
When the G5 were blacklisted from the fb revenue but had access to the MBB this just smells of a follow up law suit because it is obviously not equitable. When it isn’t that hard to look at all ncaa and invitational cfb playoff revenue and calculate proportional benefit and value of their athlete to revenue generation.
No BSU premium and Mwc value drops a ton if the lose the SD, UNLV, CSU, FSU markets. These schools have tons of leverage. And it isn’t about playing nice anymore.
Correct regarding value. But it takes 9 to dissolve the conference. Also, the schools listed are currently in the lone and premiere West Coast Conference.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast but it doesn’t take 9 to holdup the conferences ability to negotiate their new deal and other agreements. If they push there is a huge cost to the conference for not negotiating to let them go. Plus depending on the ACC lawsuit the grant of rights may be weakened, so it is just the conference membership agreement that they need to negotiate, if all this restructuring happens. Again old WAC-MWC fan from the 1970s on, but they have little market value without the cream and the cream can keep more of their value in a new best of the rest conference. That and fundraising as a PAC school, existing PAC research agreements with NASA, NSF, USDA, etc have a heck of a lot more value to these schools than the media rights by a long shot. As I said in my other post, all the pundits are playing checkers with checkers understanding of the board while presidents are playing 3-D chess. These are intertwined partnerships from a university level, not athletics in isolation from the university.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast Yes they would Bigmountain. Reread the settlement. They would only keep the 65 million, every thing else would be split between the 12 original conference members.
Yes they would Bigmountain. Reread the settlement. They would only keep the 65 million, every thing else would be split between the 12 original conference members.
I laugh every time Steve says it's about emotion. Nothing could be further from the truth. Kirk Schultz, who Jon Wilner said was the most informed president in all the PAC12, has repeatedly shown his decision making is based on fact not emotion. Fans may be emotion based but you can't look me in the eye and say the presidents of OSU and WSU, are making their decisions based on emotion. That's just ridiculous.
Steve isn’t talking about the “decision makers” when he makes those comments. We have been very clear, since day 1 when we started covering this back in Sept 2023, that we follow the decision makers moves and comments. Not the fans, pundits, reporters, boosters, etc. etc. etc.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast would it be a better solution if Fox and ESPN were able to solve this problem. We wouldn’t be having this conversation wasn’t for Fox and ESPN creating problems with this realignment.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast You guys do a good job. You really do, but you blur the lines by saying you follow the decision makers and then make comments about fans.
@@tylernelson3343 You are correct. Fox and ESPN are picking winners and losers. The schools have abdicated control to the media and they will decide what college football looks like. Almost monopolistic.
We have literally gone out of our way multiple times to express that the decision makers are making those decisions based on what’s best for their school, and contrasted that against the emotional response of the fans.
Reverse merger definitely feels like it waters down what the Pac12 could be with a “best of” G5 conference. But imagine what the conference could do with that $60-70 million in exit fees to invest in the conference? With that being said I think they should reverse merge with the MWC and affiliate with the Big Sky for relegation setup. Do something interesting and different to get eyeballs and dollars for the Pac. Relegation games can get hyped up and be a big sell to a network. Not the most likely option but might be one of the best for longevity.
It's going to be pretty hard to convince a school to drop down to FCS just because they finished last place in a conference. It's an interesting idea but logistically it won't work.
I know there are a lot of hurdles with relegation, but I think if it were to be something that spanned all of D1 football (FCS & FBS) it would be great for the game. 4 divisions of 60-some teams with affiliated conferences in each of the divisions that the relegation would happen through so that when a team did get relegated to a different division a plan would be in place through the teams set of conferences to make it easier on them. Then 4 national championships along with the relegation/promotion games. The pac/MW would be a good place to test that idea. It would be even better if they could get the Big Sky in on it.
San Diego St. is valuable for its Southern California location, time zone, and recruiting area. Arizona, Arizona St., Utah& Colorado probably would be favorable to such addition. The remaining 3 spots in Big XX probably goes to east schools. Alternatively, San Diego St is key part of rebuilding PAC conference or building west wing of All Coasts Conference (ACC). In any case San Diego St. is an important school.
@@user-zj6gm2jz1m SDSU has 1 and only 1 option. Big 12 Backfill after the ACC, SEC and B1G RAID the Big 12 for its Top 8 schools before the Big 12's next Contract. You have to UNDERSTAND how a CONFERENCE NETWORK pays the Conferences that have them because more than any 1 Factor that is the Factor pushing those 3 Conferences ABOVE the rest. For the ACCN, SECN and B1GN after the Conference adds ONE SCHOOL from a State there is very little VALUE left to ADD in a 2nd School. The only exceptions have been California, Texas and Florida because those states have GREAT SIZE (New York would make the list but in College there are no other MAJOR Brands in New York after Syracuse). Look at the Power 3. The only States with more than 1 School in them were Schools IN the Conference BEFORE the creation of the Conference Network (or the LARGE States). When you KNOW what I just told you is FACT (and it is Fact) you know SDSU is not an Option for the ACC or B1G. They do not add additional Revenue above what the ACC could gain from just entering a NEW STATE. Meaning the ACC can get more $$$ from these lesser programs New Mexico St, Utah St, Wyoming, Colorado St etc etc because they add a NEW STATE. And if you really KNOW the TRUTH about how much farther above the Big 12 the ACC is right now (and in the future) you know the ACC is about to RAID the Big 12 for NEW STATES to create that Western Wing and they will not need ant G5 schools to do it. But everything you say about SDSU IS TRUE for the Big 12and that is why you can be CERTAIN the Big 12 will be calling SOON (about 5 years).
Would it be a simple solution for Fox and ESPN to fixed this issue. We wouldn’t be having this conversation wasn’t for Fox and ESPN.
You are so correct, TV money destroyed college football.
It would have been easier and advantageous to fire Larry Scott and those idiot University presidents back when things began to slide. LOL, short memories out there apparently. ESPN did offer the deal first to the PAC. Turned it down flat. Big12 gladly took that deal. One is a power conference and one is not. It’s the complete incompetence of the PAC leadership that is at fault, not the networks.
Fix it HOW? ESPN and FOX didn't cause it. PAC 12 STUPIDITY for DECADES caused it. ESPN and FOX just got fed up dealing with IDIOTS and moved on.
ESPN STILL offered the PAC 12 MORE MONEY that the PAC 12 was worth in the end/. And the PAC 12 stayed STUPID.
And it sounds like the PAC2 wants to CONTINUE to be STUPID by trying to REBUILD the PAC 12 with G5 schools.
The top 3-6 MW schools are certainly angling for a better g5 conference and might find a way to settle with the MW if they join hands with the PAC-2. Perhaps they let out the top in exchange for a bag of cash and a long-term scheduling agreement?
I’m very curious what actions or words forum the top 3-5 MW schools led to you to believe they were “angling” for a better G5 conference.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast It's no secret that (for example) SDSU and Boise think they deserve better, and it doesn't look like there's going to be power openings right away. If they could get the logistics down, there's no doubt they would conspire with the PAC-2 about bounding from the MW and figuring out a "best of the rest" scenario. They want to look as pretty as they can and have the best shot at eligible bachelors.
The plan is to put together a west wing to compliment calford after the acc has an exodus. Cal, Stan, WSU, OSU, SDSU, CSU would be a solid and practical west wing for the ACC. Plan B would be to join MW.
Whose Plan? That is NOT the ACC Plan. SDSU and CSU are not part of the ACC Plan. OSU and WSU maybe, but probably not.
@@MercerKnowsBall The ACC plan is to stay together till 2036 and hope things are better then. TBD if they can actually do that.
@@dgart7434 They can and will actually do that. ACC only needs to have 14 teams to keep their TV Deal and lose no Revenue from it.
ACC has a Pro Rata to add New teams IF it need to Rebuild to 14 and the TV Contract specifically says it can be ANY 14 teams... it does not have to include ANY current Members (although obviously some of those 14 will be current Members).
ESPN has INVESTED too much to in the ACC Network to take a chance that the ACCN just disappears. Remember that the TV Contract and ACCN were created at the same time. ESPN made sure the ACC would survive the Loss of some teams in the TV Contract to Preserve their own Interests in the ACCN.
Also, remember that ESPN knows what the SEC is plotting and can GUESS what FOX and the B1G were plotting. ESPN KNEW 9 years ago what was coming and that the ACC was going to LOSE some teams. This is NOT a surprise to the ACC or ESPN it was PLANNED for in the TV Contract.
The ACC Leadership is not PANICKING in any way and neither is ESPN. They were PREPARED as well as could be done for the coming Winter and will do more than SURVIVE it. They will THRIVE through it and Plant Again in the Spring.
@@MercerKnowsBallthey took smu, their standards are't that high.
@@Sam2sham No. But they bring a HUGE MARKET. Maybe you have heard of Texas, Republic of.
Your waterfall chart is epic. That picture alone tells the whole story. Great job gents!
Wazzou
Oregon st
Boise
SD ST
UNLV
FRESNO
UTSA
Tulane
Memphis
USF
Liberty
App st
UCONN
ECU
Texas St
Colorado st.
That's a decent 16 team league. Question is it worth it to ESPN or fox. I could see these teams getting 10 mill. 160 million a year!
Swap Liberty and App St out with Army and Navy and I’m sold 👍
Drop Texas St. and Liberty.
@@rayrayrivers6135 Or that too. I really like the thought of having all of the service academies in the same conference.
When the cream of the crop leaves the Mwc their media deal will drop like a rock. The best teams and best markets drive revenue and these team and conferences know it. Everyone in this conversation is speculating with ridiculously limited information the administrators have and a very narrow view of the fund raising impacts at the individual school levels. As a Mwc guy at heat and WAC guy before that split, I let my emotions go and admit the PAC has much more value as a name and history to market than the MWC.
Everyone everywhere is speculating with limited information. But we are pretty sure you won’t get this angle from anywhere else.
As we like to say, it’s about having a discussion, and we appreciate your comments and value your opinion.
That College Football Guy he said basically the PAC brand is more valuable than the Mountain West brand
@@TheBigMountainPodcast I know it is just a fun what if conversation, but the realization regarding the lack of information deserves multiple acknowledgments. I am not ripping on you guys, I am just trying to emphasize, we are all just spewing here, me included.
@@tylernelson3343 The PAC Brand was 10 teams that are GONE. The PAC Brand was AQ Status which is GONE. Adding the MWC to the PAC has No MAGIC.
Memphis just hired Ed Scott as the new A.D He was deputy A.D at virginia and close to jim Phillips. That pushes Memphis to the front of the line when FSU and clemson get out.
No it doesn't.
The ACC added 3 teams preemptively. If just FSU and Clemson leave they won't expand. The ACC would need to lose 4+ to consider expansion.
@@dgart7434 If ACC loses 4 it MUST Expand by at least 1 to meet the COMPOSITION CLAUSE of TV Contact.
I have it on good authority that the Future of the ACC is 20 All Sports teams + 1 (which is Notre Dame. So call it 20+1 or 21. Whatever.
And I have it on good authority that the "Utah Rumor" was a TOO EARLY LEAK and that the ACC will take at least 5 to 6 Big 12 schools in 2 to 5 years.
If the ACC loses 4 a little too early I BELIEVE (not I did not say I know) that UConn had a shot at being #14 to fill the Gap for the ACC. But after the Utah "news" I wonder if that is still even possible for UConn.
If Tony Altimore's charts and opinions were solid, then no one was leaving the Pac 12, especially for the for the Big 12. He then started recycling the same arguments and material with the ACC, without little to no change.
An idea, OSU, Wsu, Stanford,Cal., Smu and 5 ACC schools big 10 and SEC don't want. I assume that would be a p2 conference.
Here's my proposal for a new Pac-X, to be implemented all at once or in stages. Final membership subject to TV network approval....
First 8 (top G5 teams west of the Mississippi or on it): Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Fresno State, Tulane, Memphis, UNLV, San Diego State.
Next 8 (bigger markets and/or recent football success): San Jose State, Colorado State, North Texas, Rice, UTSA, New Mexico State, Air Force, Louisiana.
Final 4 (national 20-team G5 league): Liberty, James Madison, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina (or maybe sub USF if the ACC doesn't grab them).
Isn’t the schedule agreement only 1 year long with an option for next year? How long do these fees last?
Yes. 1 year (2024) with a 1 year option (2025) to extend.
The poaching penalty is through 2026, 1 year after the possible extension. The MWC really protected themselves for a few years.
Not to mention Oregon State has $162 mil football stadium upgrade bill they were hoping the Pac12 would help pay for through the years. They have no money to throw at poaching teams.
What is the cost of adding Tulane, Rice, UTSA, and/or Texas St.
They each will most likely pay the same settlement amount that Houston, UCF and Cincinnati had to pay. $18 mil spread out over 12 years.$1.5 mil per year
@@thatcollegefootballguydon’t forget the 10 million up front along with other fees. This is why as others have pointed out besides myself that no AAC or SBC or heck even CUSA schools are going to join a makeshift makeover conference of could-be and maybe and possibly with no incentive or financial benefit with incremental increases as would drain the schools. It’s just not realistic.
@@michaelwall3393 The MWC makes about 4 mil a year (BSU around 5 M mil). The SBC only makes 500k per team, I don't know what their exit is. The AAC makes 6.9 million per team.
@@jeh58but they the PAC-2 can’t poach and can’t pick whomever they want and create the best G6 conference. The money and media outlets and multiple media revenue sources and distributions are just not there. The PAC-2 have to either full reverse merger (and I don’t know why as MWC brand is vastly superior now as are other current G5 conference names and organizations) or join the MWC as full members or partial members like Hawaii and retain as much as possible from the settlement and try to outshine the rest as recent former P5 members and get added to ACC or Big12 later on. No former 10 PAC schools are going down to a conference that only in name recognition sounds good but everything else is just bad. The AAC and SBC have similar policies and procedures in place and like the MWC have protected themselves from being poached by PAC-2 and basically the entire Non-Autonomy system or conferences without schools being significantly penalized financially and whatever conference they go to, even if a P4. I agree the independent route and schedule agreements are not the best way to go or consider unless no alternative. Crazy cuckoo bird Wilner and wacko wizard Canzano are wrong on so many things including the value of a potential PAC with 6-8 MWC schools and then add schools from AAC and SBC. They are bitter and blind and refuse to accept they were wrong on many things and issues on these topics. An option for WazzU and OzzU, as I call them, could be keep the bulk of their Olympic sports and other NCAA sports with exception of football and maybe a few other sports in conferences such as BigWest and WCC like Hawaii. And like Hawaii, Army, Navy, FIU, UMASS, and others, be in a FBS G5 conference for football primarily, for example the MWC, and a few other sports and build a winner in most men and women sports and especially in football and in time get called up to the ACC or Big12. They will have to pay exit fees for leaving the MWC in football but would not be detrimental or unfair and would retain most of the settlement money and maybe use some of that to get out of the MWC for football and very few other sports when the time comes. In fact that might be their best option and best option for MWC too. Anyone who says Washington State and Oregon State can’t go about it like Hawaii does in MWC is wrong or just don’t want them to because feel like they are going to lose the chance to go to a P4 as WazzU and OzzU if viable and valuable enough would be chosen over the other teams because both teams were recently P5/4 schools. But in all honesty both parties involved would always see the PAC-2 schools as outsiders regardless and affiliated by default and have to not want to.
@@thatcollegefootballguy if ACC or X12 did reach out to memphis fedex has that buyout check waiting. Memphis will have zero problem paying exit fees!
You have completely left of the next 5+ year revenue per school under different scenarios. It is not a one sided cost analysis, it is costs and benefits compared. Watering down the end product reduces per team value under a grant of rights. Plus top 6 Mwc teams can refuse to approve any new tv contract unless a reasonable exit is renegotiated. Revenue generation is broadcast, streaming, and individual school marketing under each scenario changes.
OSU. WSU. Have 2+ years to figure it out. Or. Stay Independent and have alliances with WCC, Mtn West long term. No rush.
They could continue the alliances. However that doesn’t seem financially likely long term. But, time will tell.
No rush for the next 12 months, but why waste time? Time is money!
@@TheBigMountainPodcast it’s obvious. They’re waiting to see if the ACC or Big 12 invite them over the next two years. They will wait at least that long. It’s my recommendation if they don’t get an invite stay Indy as long as possible. .
We agree they are waiting for a b12 or ACC invite. But I guess we differ on how long we think they will wait.
I don't think the ACC or the Big 12 will be inviting anybody before 2030. The Big 12 wants to see what they have with the 4 new members. The ACC already did a preventative measure by adding Cal, Stanford and SMU. Once Florida State, UNC and Clemson leave, the ACC will see what this new look conference can do. They also will most likely wait until 2030. But ESPN and Fox can definitely change that but that isn't very likely considering they don't want to spend any money right now.
They are just about down to only one year. August 2025.
A rebuilt super-G5 Pac-X conference is inevitable (unless the Big12 scoops up the best teams first). The Pac2 joining the MWC is just accepting financial defeat.
I see your point but where else are they going to go? Even the AAC wanted nothing to do with them. Before the collapse a Pac 12 AD called Brett Yormark and asked if the Big 12 could take everyone but OSU and WSU. Joining the MWC weather by name or Pac 12 name is the only option(s) they have left. Neither can afford going independent even if they could they will still be classified as a G5 and the massive pay cut that goes with the title.
@@Chevy265V8You’ll see the universities burn to the ground if they announce a MWC merger. OSU fans in particular have already told the university president as much. We’d rather have no program at all than accept relegation
@@kylewilson2819 My concern has more to do with the employees and staff of the athletic department than the coaches and athletes. If they can't get back into a power conference then both universities will be making massive staff cuts which then will put a lot of people who are single and raising multiple children or ones who have put their life's work into the program unemployed and struggling financially. So many especially from the Big 10 and SEC either don't pay attention to that or they do and just don't care.
@@Chevy265V8 It’s not just the university staff at risk either. The entire local economy is reliant on OSU being an attractive place to be. Hotels, restaurants, gas stations, and other local businesses are all reliant on students continuing to attend school and fans coming to town to watch games. Fans aren’t doing that if they are playing Little Sisters of the Poor. And students will attend other schools if Athletics fall off the map. You could easily see the entire community be uprooted and destroyed virtually overnight
Great Stuff Guys!!! My question is, could the Mountain West Conference 'dissolve' according to its bi-laws to get rid of the exit fees then 'merge' into the 'new' PAC conference?? Everyone then gets a cut of the 'new' PAC conference money.
Yes. They can.
That’s why we are confident it’s will be 0-2 schools or 9-12.
However, we doubt that 9 of 12 will vote to dissolve the MWC. But it is an option for a full merger with no exit fees or poaching penalties.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast I think the only way you get 9 school to vote that way is to guarantee the PAC will take those 9 that vote that way. Maybe take eight and let AF go to the AAC. The AAC would surely take AF and match them up with the other two service academies. However I have a feeling AF would not do that as they would not only need the Pentagon's permission, but they might think it would be ethically wrong to destroy a conference.
Hypothetically, I think your comment of "strength in numbers," might be something. The PAC has resources that could be beneficial to a lot of teams. However, I think a case in numbers could actually pan out in a merger of multiple smaller regional conferences.
Imagine a merger on the west coast of the WCC, PAC, and MW. Take the top brands and that becomes the new PAC (with CAL/Stanford/SMU returning). BUT your not stopping there, which is also merging the American, Big East and ACC (what's left if a break up occurs). You now have a conference that spans coast to coast and could in theory command a strong media deal. Imagine matchups of Gonzaga or SDSU facing UConn, Syracuse, and (enter Big East school), or Football match ups of SDSU against Virginia, etc...
Of course logistics would have to be sorted out, but with a larger number of schools all unified against the power of the SEC/Big10, I think this is where the balance could return to college sports. Sadly, the only way this would work would be un-even revenue, however I would say "on field/court success garners the victor the spoils." (meaning, if your team gets to the Final 4, the school earns a large portion of that revenue.)
The problem is , that the pac 2 has a weak footing. It still makes more sense to join the mountain west. Why throw money at a two team league. The TV contract is not there
Joining the MWC is giving up, and leaving way too much money on the table. Why settle for 5M a year when they could possibly get 12-15M? The AAC is in the 10M range, and a new Pac/Super G5 league would be higher than that, plus lock up the last football playoff spot each year.
The pac 12 should take Texas State. I live in Austin Texas home of; The University Of Texas. Kids that can’t go to Texas end up going to Texas State. It’s only 30 minute drive & or they have a city bus in Austin that takes students to San Marcos. Can you imagine the thought of Texas State saying now you can compete without leaving home. A lot of college kids go to Texas State. & My thoughts on where the pac 2 get their money from. The universities get most of their income money from enrollment. Every year they get new income money from students in general. It’s not just coming from TV money. They make more from enrollment, if I recall.
A new brand can be the Pac mountain conference
When the G5 were blacklisted from the fb revenue but had access to the MBB this just smells of a follow up law suit because it is obviously not equitable. When it isn’t that hard to look at all ncaa and invitational cfb playoff revenue and calculate proportional benefit and value of their athlete to revenue generation.
No BSU premium and Mwc value drops a ton if the lose the SD, UNLV, CSU, FSU markets. These schools have tons of leverage. And it isn’t about playing nice anymore.
Correct regarding value. But it takes 9 to dissolve the conference.
Also, the schools listed are currently in the lone and premiere West Coast Conference.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast but it doesn’t take 9 to holdup the conferences ability to negotiate their new deal and other agreements. If they push there is a huge cost to the conference for not negotiating to let them go. Plus depending on the ACC lawsuit the grant of rights may be weakened, so it is just the conference membership agreement that they need to negotiate, if all this restructuring happens. Again old WAC-MWC fan from the 1970s on, but they have little market value without the cream and the cream can keep more of their value in a new best of the rest conference. That and fundraising as a PAC school, existing PAC research agreements with NASA, NSF, USDA, etc have a heck of a lot more value to these schools than the media rights by a long shot. As I said in my other post, all the pundits are playing checkers with checkers understanding of the board while presidents are playing 3-D chess. These are intertwined partnerships from a university level, not athletics in isolation from the university.
Does the pac-2 have to give back their war chest to the former pac-12 members if they just join the mountain west?
No. It was part of the settlement. It’s the PAC-2s money.
@@TheBigMountainPodcastthat’s what I tried to tell the @thatcollegefootballguy.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast Yes they would Bigmountain. Reread the settlement. They would only keep the 65 million, every thing else would be split between the 12 original conference members.
Yes they would Bigmountain. Reread the settlement. They would only keep the 65 million, every thing else would be split between the 12 original conference members.
I was talking about the $65M.
I laugh every time Steve says it's about emotion. Nothing could be further from the truth. Kirk Schultz, who Jon Wilner said was the most informed president in all the PAC12, has repeatedly shown his decision making is based on fact not emotion. Fans may be emotion based but you can't look me in the eye and say the presidents of OSU and WSU, are making their decisions based on emotion. That's just ridiculous.
Steve isn’t talking about the “decision makers” when he makes those comments. We have been very clear, since day 1 when we started covering this back in Sept 2023, that we follow the decision makers moves and comments. Not the fans, pundits, reporters, boosters, etc. etc. etc.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast would it be a better solution if Fox and ESPN were able to solve this problem. We wouldn’t be having this conversation wasn’t for Fox and ESPN creating problems with this realignment.
@@TheBigMountainPodcast You guys do a good job. You really do, but you blur the lines by saying you follow the decision makers and then make comments about fans.
@@tylernelson3343 You are correct. Fox and ESPN are picking winners and losers. The schools have abdicated control to the media and they will decide what college football looks like. Almost monopolistic.
We have literally gone out of our way multiple times to express that the decision makers are making those decisions based on what’s best for their school, and contrasted that against the emotional response of the fans.
Reverse merger definitely feels like it waters down what the Pac12 could be with a “best of” G5 conference. But imagine what the conference could do with that $60-70 million in exit fees to invest in the conference?
With that being said I think they should reverse merge with the MWC and affiliate with the Big Sky for relegation setup. Do something interesting and different to get eyeballs and dollars for the Pac. Relegation games can get hyped up and be a big sell to a network. Not the most likely option but might be one of the best for longevity.
Very interesting idea.
Thx for the comment!
It's going to be pretty hard to convince a school to drop down to FCS just because they finished last place in a conference. It's an interesting idea but logistically it won't work.
I know there are a lot of hurdles with relegation, but I think if it were to be something that spanned all of D1 football (FCS & FBS) it would be great for the game. 4 divisions of 60-some teams with affiliated conferences in each of the divisions that the relegation would happen through so that when a team did get relegated to a different division a plan would be in place through the teams set of conferences to make it easier on them. Then 4 national championships along with the relegation/promotion games. The pac/MW would be a good place to test that idea. It would be even better if they could get the Big Sky in on it.
No chance San Diego St gets a Big 12 invite? The big 12 is waiting for the ACC to implode?
I wish we’d (the Aztecs) get a B12 invite…
ACC will not Implode. Big 12 will soon Backfill with G5s - SDSU will be 1 of the Top 5 adds, maybe #1
San Diego St. is valuable for its Southern California location, time zone, and recruiting area. Arizona, Arizona St., Utah& Colorado probably would be favorable to such addition. The remaining 3 spots in Big XX probably goes to east schools. Alternatively, San Diego St is key part of rebuilding PAC conference or building west wing of All Coasts Conference (ACC). In any case San Diego St. is an important school.
@@user-zj6gm2jz1m thank you Captain Obvious
@@user-zj6gm2jz1m SDSU has 1 and only 1 option. Big 12 Backfill after the ACC, SEC and B1G RAID the Big 12 for its Top 8 schools before the Big 12's next Contract.
You have to UNDERSTAND how a CONFERENCE NETWORK pays the Conferences that have them because more than any 1 Factor that is the Factor pushing those 3 Conferences ABOVE the rest. For the ACCN, SECN and B1GN after the Conference adds ONE SCHOOL from a State there is very little VALUE left to ADD in a 2nd School. The only exceptions have been California, Texas and Florida because those states have GREAT SIZE (New York would make the list but in College there are no other MAJOR Brands in New York after Syracuse). Look at the Power 3. The only States with more than 1 School in them were Schools IN the Conference BEFORE the creation of the Conference Network (or the LARGE States).
When you KNOW what I just told you is FACT (and it is Fact) you know SDSU is not an Option for the ACC or B1G. They do not add additional Revenue above what the ACC could gain from just entering a NEW STATE. Meaning the ACC can get more $$$ from these lesser programs New Mexico St, Utah St, Wyoming, Colorado St etc etc because they add a NEW STATE. And if you really KNOW the TRUTH about how much farther above the Big 12 the ACC is right now (and in the future) you know the ACC is about to RAID the Big 12 for NEW STATES to create that Western Wing and they will not need ant G5 schools to do it.
But everything you say about SDSU IS TRUE for the Big 12and that is why you can be CERTAIN the Big 12 will be calling SOON (about 5 years).