If Chris Sutton and I don't play this deck at GP Daytona Beach, This moment would never have happened. We made this deck after States and gave it to Thomas Drake and Michael Bennett on the Nats team. It's awesome to see that we have a small part of one of the most memorable moments on the Pro Tour.
@@HungryOnPlane Shoot. you are good. The Magic Show did a video on him. That's the claim to fame. Love the videos. Brings back some good memories of grinding PTQs
What I love most about this entire sequence is how much fun Nassif and Chapin clearly had during that match-up and especially that situation. They were teammates, both playing the same deck - and the way they handled the situation was just perfect. I miss those more goofy interactions in tournaments nowadays.
BONUS LORE: Didn't have time to put this in anywhere but this match and deck were so influential that P Chapin and his musical collaborator Spruke wrote a song about it for their Magic-themed hip hop duo 'The Gatherin' You can see the music video here, ngl it still goes pretty hard: th-cam.com/video/g0yAIM1OQtU/w-d-xo.html
I first saw your video on the sliver kids - which was really great. And then this one is really good too. I'm not into competitive MTG (I know OF the game but don't play), and these videos did a good job of setting the stage, explaining the foundation of the strategies, and telling an interesting story. I hope to see more of these, they're really cool!
I've seen commentary on this game before, especially this moment, but this is the best. Your notes and explanation are thoughtful and really add to the moment. I love the background of going into the match and actually seeing what happened during the game. Thank you.
Love these retro MtG videos! I specialize in the history of competitive Pokemon, so it's really cool to learn about this game's competitive history as well!
By calculations, the chance of this happening is 31 in 243, something close to 12%. All combinations of 5 Ignites with 3 different mana values:243 (1+1+1+2+2 and 2+2+1+1+1 are two different events for example). Doing combinations and adding up any combination with result life points 1 , 2,3,4 and excluding any scenario with a Memories reveal (insta loss) we have 31 possible surviving scenarios of 243 possible scenarios. Nonetheless, still an insane turn of events. I consider these slam flips more insane than the legendary Helix flip on Honolulu. Edit: corrected my calculations as pointed by darkshadow1416
Not just a little bit higher, it's actually closer to 1/10 (easy way to get order of magnitude: Ignite Memories can never be chosen so that's (2/3)^5, then you can afford up to 3 shots on grapeshot which is all but 6/32 of the remaining cases). So while it was incredible theatrics, it wasn't as unlikely as one might think.
@@darkshadow1416 yep you are correct, little mistake using all 243 (3 to the power of 5) combinations but counting the scenarios where Nasif escapes as single events. Any order of the correct sum counts, making it 31/243 or =~12%.
Instances like these are why I think luck in card games is still so important to the experience. Yes, bad luck can be annoying at times and is cause for much salt, but you need that luck to have some of the hypest moments, the "what were the chances of that?" climaxes and insane plays where all the right cards get drawn at just the right time. This is why it confuses me when some people get angry and accusatory when their opponent has a lucky break, with the "you didn't deserve to win" attitude. A game where you shuffle your deck involves luck? Who'd have thought it? Go play chess if that bothers you.
As a chessplayer, there's luck even there. Sometimes you overlook a potential attack by your opponent but luckily discover a way to defend yourself. Sometimes you're lucky that your opponent didn't sleep well and plays uncharacteristically poorly. It's not as huge an influence as in games like Magic, but it's not like luck alone can win you a pro tour either -- you still need the skill to take advantage of good luck and mitigate bad luck.
Hmm, some of the math I'm seeing here needs a bit of work... 9 life, 5 total Grapeshot or RoF with at least 2 being RoF only for 8 damage or less to survive. For 2 RoF, that's (1/3)^3 from 3 Grapeshot and (1/3)^2 for 2 RoF, with [5 choose 2] = 10 possible combinations. (1/3)^3 * (1/3)^2 * 10 = 4.12%. For 3 RoF: [5 choose 3] = 10, (1/3)^2 * (1/3)^3 * 10 = 4.12%. For 4 Rof: [5 choose 4] = 5, (1/3)^1 * (1/3)^4 * 5 = 2.06%. Finally, for all 5 RoF = (1/3)^5 = 0.41%. Total probability of survival = 4.12% + 4.12% + 2.06% + 0.41% = 10.7%, not exactly the "Luckiest Moment", but still pretty cool to capture live.
What a great era. The Ravnica/Time Spiral/Lorwyn years were top tier. Even up through New Phyrexia was great. It's been going downhill since though, and keeps getting worse.
they really thought they were playing with house money, a shame that dragonstorm didn't take the crown in the end but this is really where everyone wants to be in tournament
It's not, I think that phrase might be older than Magic itself but it's certainly the series that arguably propelled it into 'mainstream' Magic culture at least.
I have a question, why are they playing dual lands here if they’re running mono red decks? I was 4 years old when this series happened so I was not exactly in tune with the metagame and I’m not sure what lands were in rotation at the time and what benefits they would have given, I’m trying think of what older dual lands they could be running but I’m drawing blanks. Any explanation would be greatly appreciated!
The duals they're using are the Time Spiral "Storage Lands" (Specifically Molten Slagheap and Fungal Reaches) that let you tap them and an additional mana to put counters on them which can be cashed in for that many mana of their color on a later turn when you're comboing off.
^this Defs didn't have time to cover ALL of the nuance in the video but these lands were an integral part of how the deck was able to function. Time Spiral storage lands are SO powerful in this era and I'm sad more people didn't get to appreciate them. Also didn't get to mention that the reason they're playing Snow-Covered lands was to try and juke opponents in the Swiss rounds into thinking they were playing Skred Red a red based control-ish deck. It likely didn't come up often but it was basically free to do so they just jammed the Coldsnap basics in there.
Hey it's a great match, probably the best known of most on the Tour apart from a few others I could think of although it kind of depends how long you've been watching. Also given how long it takes me to make videos currently, once I've started an edit it doesn't really make sense to stop even if other people have also covered it.
I think he did a lovely job adding on a better take then others. I haven’t watched all other 6 just a few here and there but I liked his pacing a lot more then others. This kid plays fucking sen triplets and asks his mom for snacks still don’t listen to him man cover whatever the fuck you want.
Ive been out of playing and keeping a collection for like 10 years now, but i love these videos of early coverage back when i was still playing. Good memories!
I simulated the probabilities. As paradoxical as it might seem, there are more chances of surviving the ignite the memories than to die. The probability of surviving is 63%. It actually doesn't require all that luck. Check first comment below for the link to the code. EDIT: My calculations were wrong as I simulated with only 3 extractions and not 5. The actual probability of survival is 10.7%. The code was (unfortunately) removed by youtube. I attached the math that explains the result in one comment below, I hope this doesn't get removed.
I just did the math for getting anything but the 5 drop 5 times in a row. It's 2/3 the first time (66%), then it's 66% of that sub value (44%) and so on. By draw 5 you have a total chance of 13,17% of not having hit the 5 drop once. I you hit the five drop once, you are done. Here we already see that the 63% of surviving is wrong (how did you even get to that number?). On top of that you have to dodge the 2 drop at least 2 times, which is pretty straightforward since it's 50% chance each draw (since the last option i 5 damage which ends it). So you have 5 events with a 50% winrate and you just have to win twice. Even though that isn't too hard it still adds a couple percentage points risk of losing on top of the 86,23% chance of losing to the 5 drop. So while it might not be as crazy as portrayed here, it's still very unlikely. But hey, if my math is off, I would like to be corrected
@@lasselindkvist2051 I had attached the code but apparently youtube decided to remove my comment. You are correct. In my simulation I considered erroneously that the number of extractions was 3 instead of 5. Implementing the right number of extractions it turns out that the actual probability of surviving is 10.7%. Still not crazy low though.
If Chris Sutton and I don't play this deck at GP Daytona Beach, This moment would never have happened. We made this deck after States and gave it to Thomas Drake and Michael Bennett on the Nats team. It's awesome to see that we have a small part of one of the most memorable moments on the Pro Tour.
Sorry to not have known earlier to be able to credit you in the video properly but that's an incredible bit of lore!
@@HungryOnPlane Shoot. you are good. The Magic Show did a video on him. That's the claim to fame. Love the videos. Brings back some good memories of grinding PTQs
It’s channels like this that keep me so invested in this game
What I love most about this entire sequence is how much fun Nassif and Chapin clearly had during that match-up and especially that situation. They were teammates, both playing the same deck - and the way they handled the situation was just perfect. I miss those more goofy interactions in tournaments nowadays.
i love these videos
Me too this guy is on fire
Atleast someone does
BONUS LORE:
Didn't have time to put this in anywhere but this match and deck were so influential that P Chapin and his musical collaborator Spruke wrote a song about it for their Magic-themed hip hop duo 'The Gatherin'
You can see the music video here, ngl it still goes pretty hard:
th-cam.com/video/g0yAIM1OQtU/w-d-xo.html
I first saw your video on the sliver kids - which was really great. And then this one is really good too. I'm not into competitive MTG (I know OF the game but don't play), and these videos did a good job of setting the stage, explaining the foundation of the strategies, and telling an interesting story. I hope to see more of these, they're really cool!
I've seen commentary on this game before, especially this moment, but this is the best. Your notes and explanation are thoughtful and really add to the moment. I love the background of going into the match and actually seeing what happened during the game. Thank you.
Thanks! Appreciate the kind words a ton.
And this isn't even the only crazy lucky sequence Nassif has had in a top 8! Nassif's called shot is equally insane!
Turns out when you're probably the third best player of all time you've likely done some wild stuff at the Pro Tour.
My Ultimatum Mana
@@BrootalMetalBanjo Oh, and we can't forget that he was playing a 61 card deck with that one! That alone is pretty insane!
@@LucianDevine A 61-card WUBRG deck, playing Cryptic Command alongside Broodmate Dragon. What a legend.
@@hiimemily Truth!
Brother you deserve so much more subscribers.
Love these retro MtG videos! I specialize in the history of competitive Pokemon, so it's really cool to learn about this game's competitive history as well!
When you just said history of competitive pokemon I just turned to dust and blew away
I remember watching this live on TH-cam. Yes, it shows my age, but it was an amazing thing to see.
Love this. The narration and story telling is wonderful!
Thank you so much for getting so in-depth on this legendary moment.
This is one of my favorite games of magic ever played. Every time I see mentions about it, it makes me grin ear to ear.
I was thinking "Man, this guy sounds *just* like Pastrytime" and I was right! Miss your casting, but hope you're doing great!
That Ignite Memories x5 🤯🤯🤯 Talk about suspense!
Great content. Thank you for making these videos. ❤
By calculations, the chance of this happening is 31 in 243, something close to 12%.
All combinations of 5 Ignites with 3 different mana values:243 (1+1+1+2+2 and 2+2+1+1+1 are two different events for example).
Doing combinations and adding up any combination with result life points 1 , 2,3,4 and excluding any scenario with a Memories reveal (insta loss) we have 31 possible surviving scenarios of 243 possible scenarios.
Nonetheless, still an insane turn of events. I consider these slam flips more insane than the legendary Helix flip on Honolulu.
Edit: corrected my calculations as pointed by darkshadow1416
Thank you for doing the math, I was absolutely never going to LOL
Not just a little bit higher, it's actually closer to 1/10 (easy way to get order of magnitude: Ignite Memories can never be chosen so that's (2/3)^5, then you can afford up to 3 shots on grapeshot which is all but 6/32 of the remaining cases). So while it was incredible theatrics, it wasn't as unlikely as one might think.
@@darkshadow1416 yep you are correct, little mistake using all 243 (3 to the power of 5) combinations but counting the scenarios where Nasif escapes as single events. Any order of the correct sum counts, making it 31/243 or =~12%.
Probability of survival is actually pretty high, around 63%
@@gm-123-0 not even close to 63% lol
Instances like these are why I think luck in card games is still so important to the experience. Yes, bad luck can be annoying at times and is cause for much salt, but you need that luck to have some of the hypest moments, the "what were the chances of that?" climaxes and insane plays where all the right cards get drawn at just the right time.
This is why it confuses me when some people get angry and accusatory when their opponent has a lucky break, with the "you didn't deserve to win" attitude. A game where you shuffle your deck involves luck? Who'd have thought it? Go play chess if that bothers you.
As a chessplayer, there's luck even there. Sometimes you overlook a potential attack by your opponent but luckily discover a way to defend yourself. Sometimes you're lucky that your opponent didn't sleep well and plays uncharacteristically poorly. It's not as huge an influence as in games like Magic, but it's not like luck alone can win you a pro tour either -- you still need the skill to take advantage of good luck and mitigate bad luck.
Thought for sure you were going to say "destined to play from the beginning of time" 0:35
It's wild your channel is so small. This shit is so cool
patrick got screwed over by arena's rng algorithm so hard here
Hmm, some of the math I'm seeing here needs a bit of work... 9 life, 5 total Grapeshot or RoF with at least 2 being RoF only for 8 damage or less to survive. For 2 RoF, that's (1/3)^3 from 3 Grapeshot and (1/3)^2 for 2 RoF, with [5 choose 2] = 10 possible combinations. (1/3)^3 * (1/3)^2 * 10 = 4.12%. For 3 RoF: [5 choose 3] = 10, (1/3)^2 * (1/3)^3 * 10 = 4.12%. For 4 Rof: [5 choose 4] = 5, (1/3)^1 * (1/3)^4 * 5 = 2.06%. Finally, for all 5 RoF = (1/3)^5 = 0.41%. Total probability of survival = 4.12% + 4.12% + 2.06% + 0.41% = 10.7%, not exactly the "Luckiest Moment", but still pretty cool to capture live.
What a great era. The Ravnica/Time Spiral/Lorwyn years were top tier. Even up through New Phyrexia was great. It's been going downhill since though, and keeps getting worse.
Funny that's around the time when Commander took off. Coincidence?
What went wrong I only started playing recently so I don't really know what it was like before.
@@chrisstorrer long story short Commander raped the game and pushed out the majority of the 60 card players.
Fantastic videos!!
Such a cool moment :)
I don't care at all about mtg let alone these ancient competitions, but you are an excellent video essayist.
New pastrytime video. Pogo
Another nice video! Thanks!
As always another great video!
As someone who craved more pretty deece from tcgplayer, these videos are perfect
Pretty sure it was the Japanese National Team that came up with the Dragostorm deck in NYC
Man, Chapin really deserved a world title.
at first i thought that the card in the thumbmail is kinda mid, but than i saw that it had storm
after that i felt that kitchen has been visited
18 minute video about my faves? yes, please!
This is like if Joey Wheeler dueled himself. Just a good time all around.
they really thought they were playing with house money, a shame that dragonstorm didn't take the crown in the end but this is really where everyone wants to be in tournament
Is this the origin of Better Lucky Than Good? Crazy
It's not, I think that phrase might be older than Magic itself but it's certainly the series that arguably propelled it into 'mainstream' Magic culture at least.
Correct me if my math is wrong but as far as luck goes, that was a 1 in 15 event which isn't really all that low.
Holy as someone who is still somewhat newer atleast compared to this, I had no idea PVDDR played this long ago.
Don't worry we'll do a PVDDR video at some point. Let me tell you that mans has played for a LONG time.
Why doesnt Nassif cast the Rite of Flame before Ignite Memories to guarantee the win? It's not like it costs mana.
I have a question, why are they playing dual lands here if they’re running mono red decks? I was 4 years old when this series happened so I was not exactly in tune with the metagame and I’m not sure what lands were in rotation at the time and what benefits they would have given, I’m trying think of what older dual lands they could be running but I’m drawing blanks. Any explanation would be greatly appreciated!
The duals they're using are the Time Spiral "Storage Lands" (Specifically Molten Slagheap and Fungal Reaches) that let you tap them and an additional mana to put counters on them which can be cashed in for that many mana of their color on a later turn when you're comboing off.
^this
Defs didn't have time to cover ALL of the nuance in the video but these lands were an integral part of how the deck was able to function. Time Spiral storage lands are SO powerful in this era and I'm sad more people didn't get to appreciate them.
Also didn't get to mention that the reason they're playing Snow-Covered lands was to try and juke opponents in the Swiss rounds into thinking they were playing Skred Red a red based control-ish deck.
It likely didn't come up often but it was basically free to do so they just jammed the Coldsnap basics in there.
Why were Chapins hands so shaky??
I really miss Randy on coverage
lets gooo!
Oh wow ANOTHER channel covering this same match. My count is at 7 now.
Hey it's a great match, probably the best known of most on the Tour apart from a few others I could think of although it kind of depends how long you've been watching.
Also given how long it takes me to make videos currently, once I've started an edit it doesn't really make sense to stop even if other people have also covered it.
I think he did a lovely job adding on a better take then others. I haven’t watched all other 6 just a few here and there but I liked his pacing a lot more then others. This kid plays fucking sen triplets and asks his mom for snacks still don’t listen to him man cover whatever the fuck you want.
@@hors4107 Nice ad hominem 🤣
Ive been out of playing and keeping a collection for like 10 years now, but i love these videos of early coverage back when i was still playing. Good memories!
I simulated the probabilities. As paradoxical as it might seem, there are more chances of surviving the ignite the memories than to die. The probability of surviving is 63%. It actually doesn't require all that luck.
Check first comment below for the link to the code.
EDIT: My calculations were wrong as I simulated with only 3 extractions and not 5. The actual probability of survival is 10.7%. The code was (unfortunately) removed by youtube. I attached the math that explains the result in one comment below, I hope this doesn't get removed.
Can you explain the match or share a google sheet with it?
Source code (R):
N
I just did the math for getting anything but the 5 drop 5 times in a row. It's 2/3 the first time (66%), then it's 66% of that sub value (44%) and so on. By draw 5 you have a total chance of 13,17% of not having hit the 5 drop once. I you hit the five drop once, you are done. Here we already see that the 63% of surviving is wrong (how did you even get to that number?). On top of that you have to dodge the 2 drop at least 2 times, which is pretty straightforward since it's 50% chance each draw (since the last option i 5 damage which ends it). So you have 5 events with a 50% winrate and you just have to win twice. Even though that isn't too hard it still adds a couple percentage points risk of losing on top of the 86,23% chance of losing to the 5 drop. So while it might not be as crazy as portrayed here, it's still very unlikely.
But hey, if my math is off, I would like to be corrected
10.7% btw, the math here needs some work
@@lasselindkvist2051 I had attached the code but apparently youtube decided to remove my comment.
You are correct. In my simulation I considered erroneously that the number of extractions was 3 instead of 5. Implementing the right number of extractions it turns out that the actual probability of surviving is 10.7%. Still not crazy low though.
lol the flood of tears
Glad someone caught it!
Complimentary engagement
2:42 what webpage is this?
It's listed in that frame in the bottom left corner but MTGWiki!
Need to normalise wearing a Shirt and Tie to tournaments again
I heard that dude was a cheater
chapin designed that haircut while doing time in prison.
Chapin was simply the lesser player. A truth cemented in history.
Lmao. Only a mtg player would say a luck game takes skill
make your luck, luck makes you