It's amazing the difference between watching a guest like Brian for 4 minutes on CNBC often overshadowed by obnoxious hacks, versus a long form format like this where he has the time to lay out his thesis sector by sector. He should be on more often. Terrific episode.
Brian Belski and Ron Baron are spot-on about the long-term direction of the stock market. And both are great stock pickers. And another really good episode of The Compound and Friends! Kudos to Josh and Michael!
That oil restructuring example is amazing. I remember it vividly. Everyone was saying oil companies are done, no oil company will survive blahblah, they had hard time but they restructured heavily and where they are now? Just waited for higher oil proce. Same with tech now. Many fugazi projects probably killed, tech companies started to look at what brings money, laid off people and restructured. This is what happened at my cybersecurity tech company. Q3 was horrible, many people laid off but frankly they made the business more agile, better structured, much more disciplined, fired bullshit positions as well. Q4 happened to be historically amazing so what we have now is what Brain described. Leaner business with secular growth ahead.
WHEN BELSKI SPEAKS, I LISTEN. Thanks for the episode. belski always puts a thoughtful narrative for markets, which keeps me confident on the US EQUITY market. have a great weekend 👍
Looking back at his kitco interview from exactly one year ago. S&P was at 4500, his forecast for 2022 was S&P at 5300. So, he's probably right for this year since his call for last year was so bad...
So glad you guys didn't edit out the Lyft/Uber comments. Also agree with Josh 100% about the employment situation, and why there are so few people to work.
Always enjoy Belski's enthusiasm and his willingness to put his balls on the line. By the way there is a simple explanation for the FTSE 100 performance. It's that sterling has weakened 11% over the year and it's constituents earnings are mostly overseas.
Are you guys hiring? Finishing up my finance degree this May. Would love to talk to you guys about an analyst or trader position if you are searching for a motivated, curious Air Force veteran
Correct but that is more a statement why you shouldn’t try to time the market than more about what the NASDAQ will do going forward. If you invest 100% of your cash at a market top that is just silly.
"You know why I need all of them? Because everyone in my house has their one favourite show you cancel, they're gonna kill themselves - that's a quote." 😂 Josh is awesome.
Always love watching this show, just common sense take on the market with zero BS. Belski rocks !!! It will be funny host a debate between Belski and that charlatan Harry Dent.
Band of Brothers is so so good - made me realise just how ordinary young guys stepped up and put there their lives on the line - tore peoples lives apart - the luck ones went home . You can under stand why soldiers don't talk about war - beyond civilian comprehension to understand what happened to them and what they had to do. Bit like Ukraine now.
Being honest, every time I hear "our model" I just roll my eyes. The only use for models is for VC funds to mark to model. Next, we will be talking AI bullshit and self driving portfolios.
Regarding the yield curve losing its predictive abilities because everyone now watches it and adjusts their behavior………lmao. Go ask the avg person if they’ve even heard of it and you’ll realize it’s an absurd notion. People are now cutting back on take out/delivery, savings rate is low, cc balances going up, etc. No one is changing their behavior because the yc is inverted.
According to probability theory, you will probably get a positive return at year-end from last year's close or this year's open, but the theory does not address the year-end return from the YTD high in the first half of the year.
Ok! - Here goes. The good explanation as to why unemployment is low......This might get to a long comment. 1. Demographics. Many of the people leaving the jobs market during Cov lock-down and now are the Boomers. With lots of money and no desire to work too hard any more. The generation that are supposed to fill those jobs are fairly small. 2. The same job is listed more than once. Causing a miscalculation of the actual number of jobs open. 3. The way unemployment statistics are calculated is not taking into account the number of people out of work, that have not registered as unemployed. These are typically well off and skilled workers. With relatively good savings to carry them thru a few months or more. 4. The participation rate is fairly high, a vast number of those out of work, have decided they don´t need the work. So it is hard to get the participation rate even higher. 5. For every year that goes more people will leave their jobs, than come in. Boomers out, Gen Y+Z in. 6. The new norm will be a world with low unemployment, even in periods of economic recession. What happens is more elderly people leave the employment market at a faster rate than normal in times of recession. That has also happened this time around. Aprox 3 mill. more Boomers quit their job or retired than demographics indicated.
I honestly had much higher expectations in terms of coming up with strong arguments to defend the bull thesis from Brian Belski "Chief Investment Strategist and leader of the Investment Strategy Group". From my perspective, he is more like a trader than a macro investor. This has nothing to do with his success, I don't even need to check, I'm pretty sure he's very successful. I personally cannot look at a chart like the SP500 Calendar Year Price Returns and think of it like "extremely rare that we have 2 or more negative returns years", we can very well yes, or not, all bear markets are different, gotta look deeper under the hood to figure out. That also goes for Average Change in SP500 P/E Following Bear Market Troughs. Yes the oil restructuring example is great, but man why not coming up with a straight answer about the low unemployment rate, Josh nailed it. I don't buy the tech guys layoff getting back to financials, that is a drop in a bucket, not a decimal of a percent for wages and stuff. Anyways, lot of fun as usual, love you guys.
Based Belski. Josh looks Uber stressed lately, used to love love love this podcast but this rally has destroyed Josh’s opinions, especially on cnbc. What happened to statistical downtrend Josh? At least that guy had an opinion not wish wash
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This episode is sponsored by Advisorshares. Visit www.advisorshares.com/etfs/dwa-etfs/ to learn more about the Dorsey Wright ETFs.
Best interview yet, perfect balance of letting your guest talk and still getting your guys take.
It's amazing the difference between watching a guest like Brian for 4 minutes on CNBC often overshadowed by obnoxious hacks, versus a long form format like this where he has the time to lay out his thesis sector by sector. He should be on more often. Terrific episode.
To Josh, Michael and Duncan--Bring Brian Belski back sooner than later. Great discussion with him.
Brian Belski and Ron Baron are spot-on about the long-term direction of the stock market. And both are great stock pickers. And another really good episode of The Compound and Friends! Kudos to Josh and Michael!
Steve Weiss is the interview I am waiting for
Jon Malkovich's brother is speaking straight facts!
Great to get a chance to hear a more in depth and wide rangeing interview with Brian Belsky. I've listened to him on CNBC since the Mark Hanes days.
Belski is one of the top 5 guests, love having him on. Also that quarter zip is amazing, if anyone knows where its from drop a link.
Seriously I want that sweater too
Belski is such a great conversationist
Yes, and he's a gold bug, or at least bullish on gold. Good man.
Lmao Josh is so funny- you use lift when there’s a gunshot wound😂
Top 10 favorite guests. Thanks, guys.
Immediately remembered how much I love this guest. Compound delivers.
Thanks Russell!
thanks Josh and Michael - great show again.
Excellent episode. Great market info and had some good laughs too. Aways liked Belski. Keep having him on.
You guys need to have Belski on way more man. Him and JC are the only ones that come with CHARTS.
JC has nailed the market being bullish before this rally even happened in the s&p.
great Dodgeball reference - "bold move Cotton"!
Awesome episode! this was a really laid back and funny one, enjoyed it for sure. Thanks for sharing guys!
All the best-
Appreciate it!
Josh great shows the best on TV now love them both.
stocks may drop, but Belski's sweaters drip
That oil restructuring example is amazing. I remember it vividly. Everyone was saying oil companies are done, no oil company will survive blahblah, they had hard time but they restructured heavily and where they are now? Just waited for higher oil proce. Same with tech now. Many fugazi projects probably killed, tech companies started to look at what brings money, laid off people and restructured. This is what happened at my cybersecurity tech company. Q3 was horrible, many people laid off but frankly they made the business more agile, better structured, much more disciplined, fired bullshit positions as well. Q4 happened to be historically amazing so what we have now is what Brain described. Leaner business with secular growth ahead.
Dude, Belski, people have been talking about a rolling recession for quite a while (Liz Young, for example.)
Wow you guys got Belski!
WHEN BELSKI SPEAKS, I LISTEN. Thanks for the episode. belski always puts a thoughtful narrative for markets, which keeps me confident on the US EQUITY market. have a great weekend 👍
Yep Cogent and thoughtful. Rare today.
I love you ALL! Party On! Wish I could afford to go to Chicago for you guys!! My 5 week old is more important though.😃😃😃✌️✌️✌️✌️. ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
Just a suggestion Since Mr Brian nailed the call for this year, it would be great to have him back as the first episode of 2024,
Looking back at his kitco interview from exactly one year ago. S&P was at 4500, his forecast for 2022 was S&P at 5300. So, he's probably right for this year since his call for last year was so bad...
So glad you guys didn't edit out the Lyft/Uber comments. Also agree with Josh 100% about the employment situation, and why there are so few people to work.
great ep
Thanks, James!
Quality show gentlemen
Thanks, Doug!
We got one of the favorites on the show!
Thanks again guys for what you do, another great episode!
Thanks, Joe!
Love this guest
i like how michael just looks at a chart and instantly knows if it "looks pretty good" lol
Always enjoy Belski's enthusiasm and his willingness to put his balls on the line. By the way there is a simple explanation for the FTSE 100 performance. It's that sterling has weakened 11% over the year and it's constituents earnings are mostly overseas.
Love the bulls! Him and Tom Lee
Let's go Bull's!
First 3 min is gold
Are you guys hiring? Finishing up my finance degree this May. Would love to talk to you guys about an analyst or trader position if you are searching for a motivated, curious Air Force veteran
You know what I appreciate the tenacity. Bump this comment.
Send us an email Ray
Why is Coke selling at 30x? Josh - wait for their upcoming AI announcement. LOL! Priceless show.
Great work as always guys!
Appreciate it!
Great show
Thanks Cliff!
BELSKI 🚀
The NASDAQ hit a record high of 5,056 in 2000. It didn't hit that again for 15 years.
17 of the top 20 Nasdaq stocks were unprofitable in 2000. A very different time. LOL!
A pointless statement for 2023
Correct but that is more a statement why you shouldn’t try to time the market than more about what the NASDAQ will do going forward. If you invest 100% of your cash at a market top that is just silly.
Let the guest talk more !!
Josh tends to ask a question and then answers it himself .
True - JB
The AI Coke and Clorox blockchain got me 🤣
When are you coming to London !!!
can anyone identify that quarter-zip that belski is wearing ?
"You know why I need all of them? Because everyone in my house has their one favourite show you cancel, they're gonna kill themselves - that's a quote."
😂
Josh is awesome.
Great video and I hate the Eagles but that’s where my $ is this week - so go Hurts 😁😊
The only positions I'm building are cash and hedges.
It's not the Kem Arvi effect, it's the measurement problem in quantum mechanics - probably, Josh, you were thinking at the Schrödinger's cat.
Always love watching this show, just common sense take on the market with zero BS. Belski rocks !!! It will be funny host a debate between Belski and that charlatan Harry Dent.
Don’t forget to view European charts in dollar terms if you want a fair comparison. The pound and the euro both had a bad year against the dollar
"THIS IS THE SHIZ RIGHT HERE" - BELSKI
58:00 Josh I think you are talking about the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics, the observation paradox.
Wow, hadn't thought of "Some Kind of Wonderful"/Mary Stuart Masterson in years.
Quotable movies: "Young Frankenstein" and "Airplane"
Great jersey!
So good
My message to the bears and permabears about long-term investing--Pessimists sound smart but optimists make money!
Can someone tell me where Belski gets his sweaters? Asking for a friend
JB cracks me up 🤣
Yield curve... should you have bought or sold in 1981?
Batnik is always so cranky
I feel like you guys and Ben haven't talked about The Last of Us, or did I miss it?
We have a good sense of humour here in the UK
Why is Coke selling at 30x? Josh - wait for their upcoming ChatGPT AI announcement. LOL! Priceless show.
Band of Brothers is so so good - made me realise just how ordinary young guys stepped up and put there their lives on the line - tore peoples lives apart - the luck ones went home . You can under stand why soldiers don't talk about war - beyond civilian comprehension to understand what happened to them and what they had to do. Bit like Ukraine now.
As a minnesotan with a portfolio with a lot of gold and iron ore exposure I feel attacked
this guys good
I only use Lyft for the 5X UR points bonus with Chase.
Can anyone show the data of how companies started raising their guidance during 2020-2021? I’m having a tough time finding the evidence. Thank you!
Being honest, every time I hear "our model" I just roll my eyes. The only use for models is for VC funds to mark to model. Next, we will be talking AI bullshit and self driving portfolios.
When are you coming to Chicago?
Regarding the yield curve losing its predictive abilities because everyone now watches it and adjusts their behavior………lmao. Go ask the avg person if they’ve even heard of it and you’ll realize it’s an absurd notion. People are now cutting back on take out/delivery, savings rate is low, cc balances going up, etc. No one is changing their behavior because the yc is inverted.
According to probability theory, you will probably get a positive return at year-end from last year's close or this year's open, but the theory does not address the year-end return from the YTD high in the first half of the year.
Counterpoint:They were doing qe in march 2009
Look at rolling periods instead of calendar years.
bold strategy cotton
Ok! - Here goes. The good explanation as to why unemployment is low......This might get to a long comment.
1. Demographics.
Many of the people leaving the jobs market during Cov lock-down and now are the Boomers. With lots of money and no desire to work too hard any more.
The generation that are supposed to fill those jobs are fairly small.
2. The same job is listed more than once. Causing a miscalculation of the actual number of jobs open.
3. The way unemployment statistics are calculated is not taking into account the number of people out of work, that have not registered as unemployed. These are typically well off and skilled workers. With relatively good savings to carry them thru a few months or more.
4. The participation rate is fairly high, a vast number of those out of work, have decided they don´t need the work. So it is hard to get the participation rate even higher.
5. For every year that goes more people will leave their jobs, than come in. Boomers out, Gen Y+Z in.
6. The new norm will be a world with low unemployment, even in periods of economic recession.
What happens is more elderly people leave the employment market at a faster rate than normal in times of recession. That has also happened this time around. Aprox 3 mill. more Boomers quit their job or retired than demographics indicated.
37:45 tomato, tom ato lol
I want to go to Disney 😃
Here, grab this mouse 🐁
Go Birds!!
Bryan f'n Adam's was my first concert. 1985.
FTSE companies have bigger dividends than the US, not sure why?
I honestly had much higher expectations in terms of coming up with strong arguments to defend the bull thesis from Brian Belski "Chief Investment Strategist and leader of the Investment Strategy Group". From my perspective, he is more like a trader than a macro investor. This has nothing to do with his success, I don't even need to check, I'm pretty sure he's very successful. I personally cannot look at a chart like the SP500 Calendar Year Price Returns and think of it like "extremely rare that we have 2 or more negative returns years", we can very well yes, or not, all bear markets are different, gotta look deeper under the hood to figure out. That also goes for Average Change in SP500 P/E Following Bear Market Troughs. Yes the oil restructuring example is great, but man why not coming up with a straight answer about the low unemployment rate, Josh nailed it. I don't buy the tech guys layoff getting back to financials, that is a drop in a bucket, not a decimal of a percent for wages and stuff. Anyways, lot of fun as usual, love you guys.
You would have “listened to Coldplay and robbed each other’s houses.” .:. genuine belly laugh.
Watching effects results=Hawthorne effect
The 80s bull market. Due largely to the adoption of 401ks instead of company pensions? What are your thoughts lol
His name was Blinkin’ not Duncan
The October lows....😆 🤣
i thought STAG does amazon?
Me too lol. That’s why I bought it.
14:58 BULLISH
Why are staples 25x earnings? Inflation!
Based Belski. Josh looks Uber stressed lately, used to love love love this podcast but this rally has destroyed Josh’s opinions, especially on cnbc. What happened to statistical downtrend Josh? At least that guy had an opinion not wish wash
So ARE US stocks a buy or not? I don’t think the question was answered
I, like most, am an awful stock picker so I'm just going with equal weight this year.
Yo bro... he look just like Doug Collins
Wish I had invested 5 month ago
this rally is happening because things are currently stable, if he thinks inflation is taking "the elevator down", things will not be stable.