I find it kind of strange that the inflation reduction act wasn't mentioned, and Noah said the US isn't borrowing for anything but they are borrowing for infrastructure and onshoring. That is part of the picture and should have been discussed Another part that Noah missed is that inflation is only a partial default if it's unexpected inflation. Once inflation becomes expected it gets baked into the interest rates and then it is no longer reducing the value of the debt. There was a pretty recent paper on this called living in a world of higher debt. He compares it to world war II but again I think it's interesting he didn't mention how world war II the debt was inflated away because of fiscal repression. Whereas in this cycle there has been no fiscal repression ( holding interest rates below the rate of inflation for a long period of time). The Fed has not been working to accommodate the fiscal policy It has been working independently. That being said his prescriptions aren't wrong it just seems like glaring omissions. I think it's unrealistic to ever expect Democrats to continue to take the L's and actually not extend the tax cuts. The GOP needs to undo what it did by ending its own tax cuts. Of course the GOP are complete clowns right now and have been for a while. The other thing when it comes to tax cuts as a percent of GDP is there's been a big demographic shift between then and now. So it would be important what form the taxes took so as to not overly burden the productive working population who have a larger amount of dependent retirees to support. Based on the strength in spending and the wealth of that retired cohort, Probably consumption taxes would be better than income taxes. Although good luck getting elected again to any party that implements the national consumption tax
I think there’s enough absolute poverty/near poverty in the USA that it’s not just about status and respect but interesting development. I also think that the 2 are linked, right? If your economy is harsh and pitiless for far too many people, it’s hard to ask people to be respectful. Meanness and selfishness become defense mechanisms. While a more economically equal society forces or fosters greater respect / create less stark status differences
First and foremost It's wild that you think we should cut healthcare spending and increase military spending. Second raising taxes will cause depreciation of assets. companies and rich people can then write off the loss value of any assets on their taxes.
45:44 mark “…We saw revolts by poor people without slaughtering people happen very productively in democratic societies such that social democratic parties were elected or or corporatist parties who distributed money through corporatist welfare state like Japan…” Ah in the 20th Century we saw violent phenomena solely in communist contexts, never in Japan who were peaceful and productive corporatists who made and sold us well designed cars He hasn’t quite arrived at History 102 yet has he?
Wish these were longer
I find it kind of strange that the inflation reduction act wasn't mentioned, and Noah said the US isn't borrowing for anything but they are borrowing for infrastructure and onshoring. That is part of the picture and should have been discussed
Another part that Noah missed is that inflation is only a partial default if it's unexpected inflation. Once inflation becomes expected it gets baked into the interest rates and then it is no longer reducing the value of the debt. There was a pretty recent paper on this called living in a world of higher debt. He compares it to world war II but again I think it's interesting he didn't mention how world war II the debt was inflated away because of fiscal repression. Whereas in this cycle there has been no fiscal repression ( holding interest rates below the rate of inflation for a long period of time). The Fed has not been working to accommodate the fiscal policy It has been working independently.
That being said his prescriptions aren't wrong it just seems like glaring omissions. I think it's unrealistic to ever expect Democrats to continue to take the L's and actually not extend the tax cuts. The GOP needs to undo what it did by ending its own tax cuts. Of course the GOP are complete clowns right now and have been for a while.
The other thing when it comes to tax cuts as a percent of GDP is there's been a big demographic shift between then and now. So it would be important what form the taxes took so as to not overly burden the productive working population who have a larger amount of dependent retirees to support. Based on the strength in spending and the wealth of that retired cohort, Probably consumption taxes would be better than income taxes. Although good luck getting elected again to any party that implements the national consumption tax
I think there’s enough absolute poverty/near poverty in the USA that it’s not just about status and respect but interesting development.
I also think that the 2 are linked, right? If your economy is harsh and pitiless for far too many people, it’s hard to ask people to be respectful. Meanness and selfishness become defense mechanisms. While a more economically equal society forces or fosters greater respect / create less stark status differences
Is Japan welcoming to immigrants? If not, then are they a respectful-culture-centered country?
❤ these talks!
It's disrespectful to Noah Smith to pick the Whatifalthist guy to host a podcast titled "History 102".
First and foremost It's wild that you think we should cut healthcare spending and increase military spending. Second raising taxes will cause depreciation of assets. companies and rich people can then write off the loss value of any assets on their taxes.
that generation x bully has been taunting me my whole life.
45:44 mark
“…We saw revolts by poor people without slaughtering people happen very productively in democratic societies such that social democratic parties were elected or or corporatist parties who distributed money through corporatist welfare state like Japan…”
Ah in the 20th Century we saw violent phenomena solely in communist contexts, never in Japan who were peaceful and productive corporatists who made and sold us well designed cars
He hasn’t quite arrived at History 102 yet has he?
Oi Eric!! OMG is that a MF " logitech brio 4k"... Glad this podcast is finally making some buck! ❤
As if progressives just learned to "Spend big".