Another thing to consider is the effect of 401ks. New money coming into the market via automatic 401k contributions is propping up valuations. When contributions slow down and withdrawals pick up, that should naturally drive down valuations.
1. For Insurance Cash Reserve 2. Waiting for a “good” company to buy Thank you for your input. It’s always calm, no panic, no gimmicks. I guess as his wealth increases he increases his cash pile accordingly to keep it at a certain percentage.
Banks in 2021 bought huge amounts of long dated low yielding bonds. With higher rates now, those bonds are worth much, much less. US Banks have HUGE unrealized losses on their bond portfolios. If/when we get a bank run, they will be insolvent very quickly. FDIC is inadequate to cover losses and the Fed is backed into a corner. Buffet has owned banks for a long time but is now virtually out of all banks. Huge Pain is coming…..
Historical data on the "Buffett Indicator" does not matter if only looking at the US GDP and Stock Valuations. We are not in Kansas anymore! This is a Global market...especially Tech and AI.
....so basically, Berkshire cash holdings above average because companies fitting the investment profile are largely overvalued. ...a very plausible thought process.
Don't invest money you can't lose. Allocate carefully. Buy the big dips. Don't invest if you can't deal with peaks and valleys (repeat things one and two). Now that I'm 74 I no longer buy equities or REITs. I have a lot of cash and pretty safe bond funds. Every year I put about half of my RMD into cash and spend or give away the rest. We have real retirement plans and, so far, those cover our basic expenses (except for health insurance; RMDs pay for that). I don't care what people like Buffett do. I'm not an economy of scale like he is.
For my 70th birthday, I went from 60/40 stocks/bonds to 90% bonds and CDs. This coincided with these new market highs and was not a hard decision to make. Yes I now have inflation risk but I believe those 8% average annual returns on stocks could be a thing of the past, especially given the tempests around tRump's tariffs, mass deportation, and other silliness. I guess time will tell.
@@andrewaustin9991 That's because you assume you stop learning as you get older. Well young person, you will learn one day that you can always learn something new. I'm sure Jeff has forgotten more than you know already.
Warren Buffett once said to treat investing in securities like real estate-you don't constantly check for gains. So, the recent bitcoin price drop doesn't bother me. I keep dollar-cost averaging and adding to my position, and I'm up 200% year-to-date because of this strategy.
Regretting missing out on earlier Bitcoin investments, I kept funds in a HYSA. Now, with $200k to invest, I aim to avoid FOMO and buying at the peak. What's the best approach for a newbie to navigate the market?
During bear markets, aim to 5x your portfolio by accumulating crypto and reinvesting dividends. Consult a financial advisor for help. Since 2020, my $1.2m portfolio has averaged 28% annually through restructuring with growth stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and REITs.
I’m careful about giving specific advice since everyone’s situation is different. You might want to consider an independent financial advisor like Stacy Lynn Staples. I’ve worked with her for two years and highly recommend her. See if she fits your needs
Thanks for sharing. I searched her full name and found her website instantly. After reviewing her credentials and conducting due diligence, I reached out to her.
A good summary, but I add one more reason to the list. Before selling Apple stock, his whole portfolio of apple was I think close to 50%. So I think everything you said it true, and I think he is diversifying from 50% Apple to 25% Apple. 25% is still more than I would feel comfortable holding in any one stock.
In addition to overvaluation, macroeconomic risk is extremely high given the tariff threat and other threats to US stability. Investments should be diversified and moved out of the US at this time.
The SP500 2 year return is 47%. If you are not increasing your cash position now, when will you? As they say; “Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered”. I increased my cash from 25% to 35% this month and am not concerned if I miss out on some additional growth in the short term.
Azul, good talk but data is dated Sir. It's over 325 billion as of right now his cash pile, I believe his stock portfolio dropped down to around $266 Billion. He has more cash--(mostly in Treasuries) than invested in equities I understand. Buffett uses same Metrics he learned from Ben Graham at Columbia University, not any new-fangled formulas. One theory I subscribe to is: he looks at risk free expected returns-(treasuries) versus expected return % from a company's stock or Bond-(Graham taught this as step # 1). Many folks think the SP500/stock market will return lower for longer, so is He believes the same then a risk free 5% in short term instruments, beats making 5% or less, long term, with the all the risks associated with stocks and the volatility. You need to be compensated for risk. Now if a market correction of 20% or more happen I suspect he will run the math again. Rich
Crashes are an amazing time to buy stocks at low prices. Most people freak out over their 401K's value going down and miss out on the opportunity. This is a long-term game. Short-term volatility is OK.
Unfortunately, I'm 50% cash but I can't figure out what to buy so I'm averaging in to a few companies I feel good about. I try not to invest in things I don't understand. That's where I always get in trouble. Earning 5% on the cash helps soften the blow though.
Smart. I was never taught to invest. Sitting on 90% cash, only started putting a lump sum of 6k cash into a tech heavy ETF, then DCA 200 a week to that fund until I deploy most of my cash to the ETF.
Well, I picked the challenge to put my finances in order. Then I invested in cryptocurrency,stocks,through the assistance of my discretionary fund manager,
Without sounding political because of the constant drama in the new white house, anything can set off a sell off. The chances of one thing or a black swan is high in the next two years.
7-10 years of expenses in cash and bonds seems high, even for a retiree, Azul. not a retiree yet, so trusting your experience from working with clients over the years.
I agree that it seems high but if you look at it from another perspective, is 35%/65% bond/equity unreasonable for a retiree? If your living expenses are 4-5%, then 7 years of living expenses are in that range.
@Paul-GrnHil good point. I tend to think in terms of actual numbers instead of percentages. that and I've never lived through a down market that lasted more than three consecutive years.
I'm really not convinced that this chap is worthy of focus. All this chap offers is babble about his half-baked opinions of what others are doing. I've unsubscribed!
Why would anyone be concerned over what a gazillionaire does regarding his finances? We already know that he made his billions off of compound interest and that hit big in his 50s, he's now in his 90's. Stop with the fear spreading.
For a start, Buffet is a lot smarter than you. Second, he largely made his money by not losing it all during downturns, then going all in during pullbacks. You don’t seem to understand that.
![How to Get a Developer Job - Even in This Economy [Full Course]](/img/n.gif)
Another thing to consider is the effect of 401ks. New money coming into the market via automatic 401k contributions is propping up valuations. When contributions slow down and withdrawals pick up, that should naturally drive down valuations.
1. For Insurance Cash Reserve
2. Waiting for a “good” company to buy
Thank you for your input. It’s always calm, no panic, no gimmicks.
I guess as his wealth increases he increases his cash pile accordingly to keep it at a certain percentage.
We’re always at risk of a crash. No one knows when it will happen. Invest accordingly.
Banks in 2021 bought huge amounts of long dated low yielding bonds. With higher rates now, those bonds are worth much, much less. US Banks have HUGE unrealized losses on their bond portfolios. If/when we get a bank run, they will be insolvent very quickly. FDIC is inadequate to cover losses and the Fed is backed into a corner. Buffet has owned banks for a long time but is now virtually out of all banks. Huge Pain is coming…..
Are you saying no place but the mattress is safe? No money markets cds or bank deposits?
Historical data on the "Buffett Indicator" does not matter if only looking at the US GDP and Stock Valuations. We are not in Kansas anymore! This is a Global market...especially Tech and AI.
....so basically, Berkshire cash holdings above average because companies fitting the investment profile are largely overvalued. ...a very plausible thought process.
Don't invest money you can't lose. Allocate carefully. Buy the big dips. Don't invest if you can't deal with peaks and valleys (repeat things one and two). Now that I'm 74 I no longer buy equities or REITs. I have a lot of cash and pretty safe bond funds. Every year I put about half of my RMD into cash and spend or give away the rest. We have real retirement plans and, so far, those cover our basic expenses (except for health insurance; RMDs pay for that). I don't care what people like Buffett do. I'm not an economy of scale like he is.
For my 70th birthday, I went from 60/40 stocks/bonds to 90% bonds and CDs. This coincided with these new market highs and was not a hard decision to make. Yes I now have inflation risk but I believe those 8% average annual returns on stocks could be a thing of the past, especially given the tempests around tRump's tariffs, mass deportation, and other silliness. I guess time will tell.
For your age that’s understandable but younger people it’s a big risk
You’ve got a long time to live friend. 😊
jeffklein602 Nothing silly about it at all. Sanity has returned. .
Geez if I wake up tomorrow and I'm 70 years old posting about my retirement savings on youtube videos, I'd jump in front of a high speed train
@@andrewaustin9991 That's because you assume you stop learning as you get older. Well young person, you will learn one day that you can always learn something new. I'm sure Jeff has forgotten more than you know already.
Warren Buffett once said to treat investing in securities like real estate-you don't constantly check for gains. So, the recent bitcoin price drop doesn't bother me. I keep dollar-cost averaging and adding to my position, and I'm up 200% year-to-date because of this strategy.
Regretting missing out on earlier Bitcoin investments, I kept funds in a HYSA. Now, with $200k to invest, I aim to avoid FOMO and buying at the peak. What's the best approach for a newbie to navigate the market?
During bear markets, aim to 5x your portfolio by accumulating crypto and reinvesting dividends. Consult a financial advisor for help. Since 2020, my $1.2m portfolio has averaged 28% annually through restructuring with growth stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and REITs.
Who is this person guiding you and how can i reach he/she?
I’m careful about giving specific advice since everyone’s situation is different. You might want to consider an independent financial advisor like Stacy Lynn Staples. I’ve worked with her for two years and highly recommend her. See if she fits your needs
Thanks for sharing. I searched her full name and found her website instantly. After reviewing her credentials and conducting due diligence, I reached out to her.
Stay the course.
Go against Buffet and learn the hard way.
It's over 325 billion as of right now! Yes ther will be a correction or a light crash in January or feb.......
You got your crystal ball off Temu ?
A good summary, but I add one more reason to the list. Before selling Apple stock, his whole portfolio of apple was I think close to 50%. So I think everything you said it true, and I think he is diversifying from 50% Apple to 25% Apple. 25% is still more than I would feel comfortable holding in any one stock.
WHERE DID HE PUT THAT CASH PLEASE !!
I would be shocked if he literally didnt have his own bank
In addition to overvaluation, macroeconomic risk is extremely high given the tariff threat and other threats to US stability. Investments should be diversified and moved out of the US at this time.
When the next admin gets busy wrecking the economy Buffett will have cash to buy the spoils
Define a "crash". Down 20% 50% off highs, 200 DMA
Good point
The SP500 2 year return is 47%. If you are not increasing your cash position now, when will you? As they say; “Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered”. I increased my cash from 25% to 35% this month and am not concerned if I miss out on some additional growth in the short term.
he's 94. He is done
I would love to be done like Buffet.
🤣 a, no!
Who said this. This is BS..
Azul, good talk but data is dated Sir. It's over 325 billion as of right now his cash pile, I believe his stock portfolio dropped down to around $266 Billion. He has more cash--(mostly in Treasuries) than invested in equities I understand. Buffett uses same Metrics he learned from Ben Graham at Columbia University, not any new-fangled formulas. One theory I subscribe to is: he looks at risk free expected returns-(treasuries) versus expected return % from a company's stock or Bond-(Graham taught this as step # 1). Many folks think the SP500/stock market will return lower for longer, so is He believes the same then a risk free 5% in short term instruments, beats making 5% or less, long term, with the all the risks associated with stocks and the volatility. You need to be compensated for risk. Now if a market correction of 20% or more happen I suspect he will run the math again. Rich
Pretty simple. Warren Buffett said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful”.
Yes!! That thinking keeps you safe, and with a good opportunity to make money!!
Thanks for sharing today. Sharing post immediately
Crashes are an amazing time to buy stocks at low prices. Most people freak out over their 401K's value going down and miss out on the opportunity. This is a long-term game. Short-term volatility is OK.
Yes, I get the worry if you're at/near retirement. But if you're five or more years away, dollar cost averaging should work to your benefit.
The stock market is the only store where customers run away when everything is on sale.
@@slocumb1270 Well put.
This is what I'm waiting for. 💰
Unfortunately, I'm 50% cash but I can't figure out what to buy so I'm averaging in to a few companies I feel good about. I try not to invest in things I don't understand. That's where I always get in trouble. Earning 5% on the cash helps soften the blow though.
Smart. I was never taught to invest. Sitting on 90% cash, only started putting a lump sum of 6k cash into a tech heavy ETF, then DCA 200 a week to that fund until I deploy most of my cash to the ETF.
I’m favoured financially with Bitcoin ETFs,Thank you buddy.$63,700 biweekly profit regardless of how bad it gets on the economy
How please!? If it’s possible, I would appreciate if you show me how to go about it
Well, I picked the challenge to put my finances in order. Then I invested in cryptocurrency,stocks,through the assistance of my discretionary fund manager,
Mr James Werden
I’m not here to converse for him to testify just for what I’m sure of,he’s trustworthy and best option ever seen.
"Buy low, sell high" ..............It sounds like Warren is actually following this old simple recommendation.
Warren Buffett owns the majority of BlackRock, the DEI inventor and pusher.
Thanks, your videos at the end where you held your hand up aren't linked.
Mutual funds help “risk” but not totally in all situations.
Without sounding political because of the constant drama in the new white house, anything can set off a sell off. The chances of one thing or a black swan is high in the next two years.
I’m rebalancing 12/16. It will pay off handsomely. I hope
Morton Buffett doesn’t have to be worried about anything he’s loaded he’s old and he doesn’t spend much
7-10 years of expenses in cash and bonds seems high, even for a retiree, Azul. not a retiree yet, so trusting your experience from working with clients over the years.
I agree that it seems high but if you look at it from another perspective, is 35%/65% bond/equity unreasonable for a retiree? If your living expenses are 4-5%, then 7 years of living expenses are in that range.
@Paul-GrnHil good point. I tend to think in terms of actual numbers instead of percentages. that and I've never lived through a down market that lasted more than three consecutive years.
I'm really not convinced that this chap is worthy of focus. All this chap offers is babble about his half-baked opinions of what others are doing. I've unsubscribed!
This guy again . He always making videos
Yes, he has a TH-cam channel. Making videos is the point. Regular posting improves ranking with the algorithm that drives traffic. So...
Why would anyone be concerned over what a gazillionaire does regarding his finances? We already know that he made his billions off of compound interest and that hit big in his 50s, he's now in his 90's. Stop with the fear spreading.
For a start, Buffet is a lot smarter than you. Second, he largely made his money by not losing it all during downturns, then going all in during pullbacks. You don’t seem to understand that.
😂