Just talking with my CFII yesterday on this very subject. He and another IR student went through the clouds at CLOSE to the freezing mark. Tops were REPORTED low, but they were not that low. They started picking up ice and accelerated the climb. Then the climb rate started dropping. And kept dropping. The PA28 simply stopped climbing with full RPM so they diverted back and got under the layer. The whole trip back, the plane was buffeting. After landing, all the leading edge surfaces were coated. He said it was the most frightening experience of his career, and this is a guy that had total engine failure at 800ft. I am done with real IMC training until Spring.
@@idekav. - I'm ok with the feedback here - As expected, some are legitimately suggesting launching at all in those conditions was a mistake, even if it worked out. Read through the other comments for some great insights. I'm appreciative of the discussion this one is generating.
The concern I have; in this case you broke a rule you made and "got away" with it. This can lead to a gradual creep over time as you gain experience and confidence, to move that Go-No go line out until one day you go and it bites you. I totally understand why you decided to but I fear it could cloud your judgement in the future when each time you face a Go-No go situation it should be treated in isolation of previous decisions (since each is unique) - and yet it's the human condition to NOT do that.
It is always better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air, than in the air wishing you were on the ground. After more than 13,000 hours I’ve recently had to take a healthy ribbing from friends who wondered why I sat on the ground for two days in Portland waiting for the weather to clear. The freezing level was 6000’ to 7000’ and I had to cruise at 6000’, and I could have said “well, I only have to cruise at 6000’ for 30 mins then I can descend to 3000’ when the mea is lower”, but in my mind if there’s a chance of getting into any ice I am not going flying in a non-Fiki aircraft. I actually had an FSS guy say to me “it’s so brief, you can always just declare an emergency”. I was shocked that someone would think that way. Good for you to bring this into a video, but I honestly cringed when you said I’m gonna climb briefly through and descend briefly through ice. So many have gone before you that didn’t make it and took innocent people with them, that I hope you never question known ice again. Always look at the forecast with the most cynical outlook(from an eternal optimist) No one knows how their airframe will handle any amount of ice. I flew a C421 into Winnipeg in my early days that was not clearing ice the way a Fiki plane should, and flew an ils to minimums at full power, tailstalling in the flare. It really is a matter of ice and death.
There on no guarantees when it comes to ice and your warnings should be heeded when ever there are clouds and close to freezing. I remember once hiking in the clouds on a ridge at 6000 feet. The wind was coming over the ridge at around 10 mph. Under the pine trees there were two feet of ice cubes that looked just like the round ice cubes. Ice was accumulating on the pine needles and falling off at a good rate. I just thought about how fast the ice would accumulate on a wing going 150 mph. I never want to be that person who finds themselves in a scenario where there is no way out. Especially in a Mooney.
Thought this was fab. Diving deep into decision making is exactly what GA needs and craves. Lots of different perspectives in your piece, which shows that it's not black/white. Well done Steve.
I'm an instrument rated private pilot in Alaska and I will not knowingly fly into any visible moisture when it is at or below freezing. It can be frustrating because freezing levels here are often at MSL for 6 months of the year, and not much higher than 5000 ft the other 6 months. But the risk is simply too high. That said, thanks for posting and letting us in on your decision making process.
I highly admire your honesty. I know you are big on personal minimums, and it's something as I push through my training, I continue to always respect my personal minimums because we have always said, you talked about it, you made smart decisions when you came up with them - so respect them... You have always been big on the pressures of "Get-There-itis" ... but this episode really pushes those concepts right to their limits... Clearly this was a Personal Minimums up against Get-There-Itis. This was then a PDM discussion. Interestingly as the discussion continued, you said "Well it was probably just 500" -- but what-if it was 1500? Ryan had a good point here. One of the lessons I have always learned from you is the "Break the chain" rule when it comes to checklists. My personal rule, learned from you, was if I hit any form of stop or snag on a checklist, I always restart from the top.. Thanks for that. Full admiration for being willing to display vulnerability on this one. You asked at the end "This might have created more questions".... So here's one - yes you made it, yes it worked out - but after this entire discussion --- ignoring the part where it worked out and it was ok --- Do you think going was the right call?
This dude just recorded a video showing how he ignored his personal minima due to convenience, and somehow it was the right thing to do. Let's be real about what we just saw. 300k pilots will see this.
I think it is important to differentiate between ‘Known Icing’ and ‘Icing Conditions’. It is hard to predict known icing but we know that 100% of the time Icing can only exist in icing conditions which is visible moisture below the freezing level.
WOW! Excellent video. Excellent topic! I’m 81 years old with around 12,000 hours and using ALL the available weather tools I STILL find the weather is never what I thought it would be. Your mentor is correct - the weather is dynamic. It’s always changing
If you write down a personal minimum, then encounter something worse than that condition and fly anyway, it wasn’t really a personal minimum. And that means the REAL personal minimum is a mystery. You can alter personal minimums over time, as experience and knowledge and competency expand, but that’s something you do at home, not in the cockpit. I’ve had my instrument rating for less than a year, and one of the ways I recognize the limits of my experience is with personal minimums that are well in excess of the regulations. I have a no-go condition if the forecast freezing level is below the MEA on any route segment. I also won’t fly above the freezing level in anything other than severe-clear conditions. I live in a part of the world where the surface air temp is literally never below 0°C and the winter freezing level is usually above 5000 AMSL, but even then I’ve had to scrub IFR flights in winter. On a couple of occasions I’ve gone VFR instead because it’s safer to fly over terrain in warm air below the IFR MEA than it is to risk ice above it. The two most significant things I took away from IFR meteorology study were respect for ice and respect for thunderstorms. Our tiny fragile single-engine airplanes have no business being anywhere near either of those things. As a private pilot, I don’t lose income if I don’t go, I can always say “No.” Ice is a huge “no” for me. I don’t know how you northerners do it!
Insightful video. I'm guessing the hardest videos to post might be the most valuable ones to watch. I've been watching your stuff since basically the beginning and this is one of my favorites. Certainly it's a personal and subjective thing setting up your personal minimums. I'm not going to get into whether it was a good idea to launch or not, but I do think having local knowledge available from someone you trust is a valuable thing. Like you said, you've probably created more questions than were answered with this video! Happy flying.
Good lessons on icing and IFR clearances. Instrument rated pilots make judgement calls, and they suffer the consequences of bad decisions. Contingency planning is key.
I’ve been flying ifr more than three years now and use ForFlight to file my ifr flight plans. I don’t call clearance until I’m at the runway ready to depart and I’ve called over an hour before my scheduled departure time and up to a few hours past the scheduled time. I think they delete them after two hours past scheduled time. But if you miss it by 2 hours all you have to do is file another plan through ForFlight. You should never rush any part of a take off especially in potentially icy or ifr conditions. If you miss your void time just call them back and get another one…
I was flying a Navajo with de-ice boots, 2000' AGL. A very thin layer of scud type stuff 8 miles from landing and I got a full load of ice almost instantly and the boots didn't take the ice off. I landed OK and looked at the wings there was about 3/4" of ice on the leading edge! Thankfully I was light in weight with no pax and 1/4 fuel tanks. I was in the ice for less than 1 minute! I used fly in Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and Canada and have never seen ice build up so fast!
Always glad to see you getting multiple opinions when you aren't sure on something like you seem to always try to do, and especially to see you keep both sides in the video for others to see it's not always a clear cut answer in aviation.
The most important thing is ALWAYS have a out and that might be checking the weather BEHIND you! Are there a lot of airports or are there long distances between airports. Is there a low MEA or a high MEA. Is it night where you can't see the cloud to avoid them. Are you going over mountains where the prevailing winds will pick up the moist air and freeze it. Will I have passengers that will be a distraction and subconsciously affect my decision making. When you start thinking this way you see just how simplistic personal minimums are. I equate this to driving in winter. The Highway Patrol will tell you to slow down and leave it at that. However, if you are "going slow" around a corner but you panic brake you will slide off the road anyway. They say that because they have to make the message simple. Just like the FAA. I would be careful with the gaining by experience by doing too. Critical thinking is what is really needed. It's always having realistic outs and being pessimistic and conservative. And always training for the worst case scenario because like the old guy said weather can never be completely predicted and can change at any moment. I remember being at Steamboat Springs, Co. We had already been delayed a day due to icing in clouds type weather. I prepared the Mooney for us to go and we waited. There was a hole for us to climb out of. In which we did. I knew that we could fly the approach back in and would not pick up a lot of ice because it was a stratus layer and not too thick. Once we were on top it was stratus all the way as far as the eye could see. I evaluated and decided to return while we still had the hole. Why? One was that I knew that a lot of times what looks like flat tops can be rising tops. I had a full load a passengers. If I was alone as the fuel was used my max ceiling would increase. Not the same with passengers. Two, there are not a lot of airports between me and my destination. So my "outs" would be limited and each leg would be more committing. Three, there are hi MEAs so a let down to below the clouds wouldn't be a option. Four, and maybe the most important was having passengers. Would my decision be influence by the pressure of taking care of my passenger. My passengers ended up taking the airlines back but they knew that this was a possibility from the beginning. This, to me, is what it means to be Pilot in Command. When you look at it this way, I believe, you can see how lacking numerical personal minimums are.
You hit the nail on the head. Challenging flying conditions like this are what make flying so hard. Not the technical aspect of flying the aircraft, but the decision making skills to go/no-go.
It took a couple days to get to his (a long story to be recounted later) and I knew it had been a while when you had revised the title before I got to it! For me, this brought to mind my own growth as a pilot once I started flying a lot, getting comfortable with cross country flights and beginning to face personal time deadlines. For me the issue was avoiding IFR, making sure I was both legal and safe. My trips to and from Minnesota and OSH took me into situations that I didn't think I'd want to be in, and it worked out, but had me wondering later. Flying in smoke that was technically VFR but practically almost IFR wasn't comfortable, but my experience level at that point told me that it was doable. I did it, and later felt ok about it because it broadened my confidence in my own abilities. But coming back from OSH, climbing above a broken layer that seemed to be gaining altitude and becoming less broken had me worried. It pushed me up to 10,000 feet for longer than I wanted to stay there and I wasn't absolutely sure I'd be able to get below it without penetrating clouds. It was summer and icing was not an issue; I knew staying on the gauges with a G3X was comfortable, but I didn't want to bust regs. Crossing over the northern tip of Lake Michigan was technically VFR but practically IFR; I could see the water below but there was no horizon due to smoke and haze. It all worked out both legally and safely, but the debrief gave me pause. Michael's advice was spot on: a wise pilot makes absolutely certain that he has more that one or two options available at all times. Feeling rushed is also an important concern, especially for me. When I'm rushed I make mistakes, so that's one of my personal minimums: If I'm feeling rushed, I'm not going. I have to be relaxed to fly right.
Such a great episode, thanks Steve for opening up about this process and even the opposing view points and considerations. Great discussion and topics to consider. Some great mentors you've got there as well.
0. good to circulate a video so people can see real-world decisions and mistakes rather than book-flying. that said, the comment system exists and i’m all the happier to chuck another useless 2¢ into the pit. 1. IFR strips stay in the system for 2 hours and are meaningless without calling and picking up the clearance. in other words, the ETD (note: *estimated* time of departure) on the strip is not important for anything other than strip expiration. if you’re worried about lost comms ETAs, just tell ATC when you actually departed and your revised ETA. you can even do this on your initial call. 2. stressing about a void time is pointless especially for an untowered field under these IMC conditions. realistically there’s few if any flights arriving or departing, so who cares if the airspace stays locked for 5, 10 or 15 minutes. if there is traffic, congrats to them! they legally have to have enough fuel on board to deal with the diversion - realistically they can stay in the hold for a couple mins. remember you can always pick up the clearance after the run up, or call back and extend. my cfii one time locked an untowered field for half an hour because there were no IFR flights in or out that morning and we needed the time. if the field is popular and that makes you nervous, stage the clearance later - i.e. holding short and ready to go. but honestly it’s same story as when you’re short final in a piston with a jet 5 miles out: THEY CAN WAIT. 3. too much rationalization; even FIKI aircraft stay out of ice. you made it thanks to dice rolls, not due to logic. what was the rush to ferry a 6-pack SEL aircraft thousands of miles in the winter? suppose you lose the engine for any reason while on top of a thicker icing layer later on the trip - not a lot of options then. the only thing in aviation that has an actual deadline is the people - and by that i mean: when we rush rush to meet a deadline, we die. the airplane doesn’t care that it got into the air 5 minutes later, and it honestly doesn’t care about being rapidly disassembled by terrain. it’s just metal.
I just wrote this for a pilot in a VeriEze that crashed but lived to tell about it. I think it applies here: A pilot in command has to do more than just look at a forecast. If there are clouds and it's close to freezing there could be ice. If you are flying at night over unpopulated areas it's almost impossible to avoid clouds. If you are flying over mountains there can be uplifting pushing moist air into freezing levels and ice can accumulate in minutes. Usually the best place to be is back where there was no ice. Always have at least one out and always be a pessimist. I think this is where "personal minimums" fail. Once you say you are not going to do something, ever, but you do you are in extremely dangerous territory. I use the Gordon Graham Risk Model. High Risk/High Frequency, High Risk/Low Frequency, Low Risk/High Frequency, Low Risk/Low Frequency, and Discretionary Time. With the HR/LF with little discretionary time to make a decision being the most dangerous. When you don't train and practice for something that is high risk and then are put into that type of scenario you are in extreme danger. This person didn't like going into this type of scenario thus once he pushed on into it he was not prepared for it. The best preparation is to be done on the ground not trying to figure it out in the airplane. He never once said what the risk could be or what he would do if he encountered such things. Since he said he didn't like IFR or night flying he probably never trained for that scenario. If you are going to use planes for utility and cross country flight you have to expect you are going to get into these types of scenarios. And you better have preplanned what you are going to do. That includes telling any passengers that this isn't the airlines and that delays and overnight stays in hotels are very likely. As long as we are using planes for utility we must keep training for the worst case scenario. This is why I highly recommend Richard Collins IFR Flying by the season. So that we do scenario based decision making which is lacking in FAA and instructor training.
This one was interesting; two different views and Michael providing not answers but points to consider for yourself. My takeaway (other than completely agreeing that "mission" should be a curse word for civilians!) was that counting on the tops to be low was a roll of the dice (albeit probably a small one) and a way to mitigate that risk could have been having a solid plan of when to stop climbing and go back to the airport as an emergency. I think I heard that the weather was improving though. If the weather is improving, I prefer to wait (and have done that). Thank you for this video. It was probably a difficult one to figure out how to tell the story in a constructive way but I think it shines among your original goal of a debriefing video to learn from.
the one and only time I've gotten into real icing was on my PVT checkride. And it wasn't me that did it. We had low ceilings in winter with freezing virga. So i was complying with cloud clearance requirements, which prevented us from getting to 3000ft AGL as the DPE told me to fly to. He got upset and took the controls and flew us right into the virga. Instantly coated the entire airplane in a thin layer of ice. Wings, tail, fuselage, windscreen. He gave me back the controls at this point and we went back to the airport and landed. I landed the plane covered in ice with only a 3inx3in opening in the windscreen. My CFI was furious. We put the plane into the airport's heated hangar, cleaned the ice off. We went back up and finished the checkride about 30min later, but this time the DPE didn't make me fly to 3000ft AGL and didn't challenge me again on that. I passed, and my CFI and I flew home without issue under the clouds.
Steve! Been watching your channel since the very beginning, and it’s been a joy to grow alongside with you as I’ve progressed in my own aviation journey. I’m yet again reminded how small a world it is, as Michael Maya Charles (good ol’ “MMC”) has been a dear friend and an invaluable mentor of mine for a number of years. Glad you have him in your corner as well! He is the epitome of “old pilot” in the context of the ubiquitous “old pilots vs bold pilots” saying. 😉 Keep up the ARTFUL work, and enjoy the process 😎
Most of my IFR training flights with students were into non-tower airports and void clearances to get out. After doing it many times and truly learning the process, it is one of the best deals in aviation. It is just the opposite of a rush to get in the air if you organize it well.
When several say no problem and one lectures you, I’d call that a win, especially since you aren’t debriefing a forced landing due to icing. I lean on Luke here. It’s where he lives and flies for a living, and he’s no cowboy. You use the rest of the advice as you see fit. It was given without an agenda other than personal preference, and with the intent to give you useful information. The proximity of the information you receive from both ATC and mentors is if prime importance. Your insight has the highest value because you’re looking out a windshield at what you are deciding on. After that you can ask someone else who’s looking at it, then you can decide to ask someone who isn’t looking at it. I consider better or less better as descriptors for weather information as a driver with one less dimension of risk to face. No “bad” information, just “less useful” maybe.
You might have missed a very important part of this "advice giving" from mentors, @colinwallace5286. Most mentors worth their salt don't tell you WHAT to do, but help you become more aware of the PROCESS; the WHY and HOW we make those crucial decisions. That's not "Less Useful." In fact, it's critical for developing your own responses to tough decisions. Steve shared three different pilot's perspectives here to illustrate that there are always more things to consider when making these life-or-death choices, and usually, those disparate perspectives come from real-world experience.
My father was a pilot but I am just a simulator pilot. I learned so much from your videos and other youtuber pilots and I appreciate that. As a fellow Canadian, thank you.
This is a good lesson. Personal minima are a before flight decision and should be dynamic. Hard personal minimums are in place to default to when you don't have time to gather and make a good decision. I spend a couple hundred hours a year in non-fiki planes in a part 91 environment and potential icing is the #1 cause for cancelled flights. I will not fly if there is ANY chance of icing conditions I would have to carry it to the ground. If you land with ice on the airframe, you are putting extra stress on your airframe and landing gear and you are effectively grounding yourself until you are deiced. If I'm going to climb or descend through a layer that may have icing, I make it priority to minimize exposure. Not accepting intermediate altitudes that expose me to visible moisture below freezing is one way to do that, small deviations or an entire route change is another. In the example here, waiting another couple hours MIGHT have meant a temperature increase or cloud dissipation.
I'm very curious what was your plan in case you needed to come back to the airport. You did not mention anything on that. Needing to come back would have kept you in the icing layer way longer than planned with now some extra other issue that forced the return and skud-running at 700ft to get into the airport with no instrument approach available. And, I know it's backseat flying, you both have bluetooth headsets, why not call to get your clearance after run-up? When you're 90% ready to go. That way it's a "we have a relaxed 15min to finish getting ready and taxi out" and not "we have 15min to do the whole start, runup and taxi"
If we had to return earlier than the alternate, we’d have had to have flown a non GPS approach into one of the 3 local airports, so there were options… mind you we hadn’t briefed them. As for the clearance phone call being on speaker before start up, that was so Blake could hear it to be a part of that… it hadn’t occurred to me that we both could have had our headsets connected Bluetooth to the same phone - if that is possible, that’d have been a good idea.
Im an instructor and we fly in mountainous terrain with ground level averaging 4000-6000msl company policy is no flight into visible moisture with temperatures below 5f. Just not allowed or its a violation. super grateful for that rule. We fly c172s and its just never worth the risk.
To me it was a "No Go" as my minimums are set in stone if not they are worthless, I feel you had "Get thereitiss" and allowed outsider "Mentors" put Peer Pressure on you. I my being hard on you but I was with a friend, who was sloppy on his minima and decided to blast through a forcast thin icing layer, we had only just hit it and found it built very fast and was not the forcast 200ft but just over 1400ft, the aircraft climb performance was down to below acceptable minima by the time we came out on top. It took over 45mins to clear the ice and this cost us 2/3 of our planned contingancy fuel. To top it all off the destination airfield was in IMC and had a power out so could not recieve IFR traffic. This was reported to us late so we have a long divert and use the rest of the contigancy fuel plus some reserve. Alll to tight. "Thin layer you can blast through" and "It will be like this for day, so go for it" both are killers, if it is outside your minima don't do it, you are on a mission to keep yourself alove and support your family not ot make a smoking hole in the ground.
I heard a lot of justification/rationalization going on in this video. At the end of the day, you were successful in this flight, but is this success laying the foundation for more accepting a little more risk with subsequent flights, slowly building into a future accident? Only you know. I live in the New England area, we deal with ice all the time. It's part of flying as it probably is in your area. At first you said you thought the layer was a few thousand thick. Then as the challenges to your decisions came up, you said that it was about 500 feet thick, which looked accurate from the video, but it didn't sound like you knew that when you started. Ice is tough, I'm still working to gain an understanding of it. My take is that the forecasts are close to useless unless it is a case of a storm with definite ice. Those are an easy decision. The tough decisions are days like you flew in, you just don't know. I would have stayed on the ground in a non ice airplane for that day. I've been flying fiki tks Cirrus. One flight comes to mind, I was flying through Maryland from Virginia, most of the flight was above an undercast, about 1,000 foot ceilings and about 4 or 5 thousand thick. I asked ATC to delay my descent until I could get below the ceiling, which they did. I got a PD descent, which I planned to spend minimal time in the clouds. Before I descended I asked for any ice pireps, ATC told me there had been a Bonanza that had ascended nearby through the clouds about 10 minutes before and reported trace to light ice. So I turned on the FIKI and into the clouds I went. By the time I broke out at about 1,000 feet I had over almost 1/2 inch of ice on the wing tips (non protected area). It would have been a big problem without the tks. You just never know. I use the EZwxbrief.com product by Scott Dennstaedt, it's been great at predicting problem areas. He also has a book on using the skew-t which is very useful predicting ice, tops and bottoms in specific areas. Studying and learning this stuff is a time consuming endeavor. As pilots, we want and are used to quick answers on weather. There are no quick answers for ice. If you are going to mess around in or near it, take the time to learn the best way to find it and how to stay away. Also remember, flying through a 2 or 3 thousand foot stratus layer can start out with trace ice at the bottom and build to moderate or severe ice near the top of the layer. It's tough to know. I had a great cfii, one thing he continually drummed into me was never do anything flying instruments if it feels rushed. Don't do it. On the ground call back and tell them you need more time. In the air, key the mike and ask for delay vectors. The controllers don't care, I do it when ever I need to. Fly safe.
Icing is weird man. Ive had numerous times in jets when an aircraft reported light icing, and going through that same layer, i got nothing. A lot of the time, i dont pick up ice in clouds below freezing. But sometimes you do. Thats the issue. In a single engine piston, absolutely would not fly into visible moisture below freezing. It just not worth the risk. Ice builds up super fast. Its truly terrifying how fast it can accumulate.
Excellent video! The only icing I'll interact with is on a cake. My personal minimums right now are a no go no matter what when it comes to icing in a GA aircraft.
Stop moving the goal post. If you have a go or no go personal minimum, then abide by it. Just because it’s didn’t happen this time doesn’t mean it won’t bite you the next. Wx is very dynamic. I’d rather not try my luck especially in aircraft without deicing equipment.
That’s fair feedback… but if you’re gonna modify a personal minimum you set without a ton of experience behind it, isn’t a good time/place to do that when you’ve got a senior instructor / flight test examiner working through it with you? The fact is, in this case, it played out exactly as Luke knew it would. 🤷✌️
One of the pilots have a bass, other has the amps... Dude you made this video based on the opinion of a New Orleans jazz band, you're not deceiving anybody! 🤣🤣🤣 P.S: NIce video, quite humble from your part to let others to learn from your experience, to put your own decisions "in the line of fire".
Because I wanted the phone on speaker for Blake to be able to hear it - he’s working on his rating and wanted the practice copying clearances - I didn’t think it was going to be so tight.
I was so shocked listening to this I had to watch it again. You have 2 great advisors but Luke. Wtf? Comments like if you don't go now you won't get out, I knew it wouldn't be thick? People die every year because of horrible instructor advice like that. An airplane with no anti/de ice equipment should always think of known ice any time in imc below freezing level.
I read somewhere that no GA aircraft is certified for flight into known icing, only into "known icing conditions". Seems the liability of certifying safety in actual ice would be way to high, so I was told that they only certify for conditions where icing could occur. A fine line drawn in the fine print, but I could be wrong. The FIKI term is actually a misleading or at least incomplete statement.
The one thing here that people are not saying is local knowledge..... Luke knows what to see and expect... If there is a deviation from that.... Turn back! I would never dream of mountain flying without somebody local for the first few times. I live in an area with the craziest atc ( two busy commercial towers). I don't care now because i know where to go, but when i started i carried Passengers with local knowledge until i learned. It's the same with weather. We are getting stuck on "icing". But icing should be replaced by any extreme thing .
one thing i cannot stand is the stupidity that is the bullying online other pilots do when they think something was “bad”. just because you barely studied enough to understand the weather theory for checkride does not mean 100 ft of FOG is dangerous, “people are afraid of things they cannot understand”. if you TRULY FUCKING STUDIED you would understand weather past your shitty written test score, you people are the type to cancel a completely safe flight because of your unwillingness to actually try to have risk management, whats the matter your cfi isnt there to tell you whats safe or whats not? risk management comes from loads of studying and real world understanding, which leads to real world experience. fuck the naysayers, this flight was absolutely safe in all its manner, and i think the approach you took into carefully making the video as if you did something wrong is foolish, i know you as a youtuber are scared of backlash, but as a pilot do not ever get on yourself like that dude, yeah learn from your mistakes but this isnt a mistake, its just a simple flight with a little risk that was carefully managed. jesus.
I had to manually approve this one because TH-cam flagged it as “likely inappropriate” and held it for review. 😬 I don’t like to remove comments that are engaging in constructive debate and I appreciate your support for the story we are trying to tell here - but I also don’t entirely disagree with why the comment was filtered as the tone is harsh - it’s a family show over here 🤓
The FAA has been ridiculous with regard to known/forecast icing, something like that. I live in a warm part of the country so it doesn't affect me but it's worth double-checking.
i live in a warm part too but it still certainly impacts us! even on days when the freezing level is at 6,000 feet it can be enough to scrub an ifr flight! and we’ve had days here where it’s dropped to 3-4k
"if we don't do the flight now, it's going to be a long time until we can, so let's just pretend we're not 100% sure if there's ice or not, and blast through this visible moisture there suspiciously close to 0*" sure sounds like the result of a few different hazardous attitudes, if you ask me.
This single sentence assessment is fair, when looking at the situation from a very basic superficial level. The video shares a deeper conversation with an expert that has intimate local knowledge - Luke accurately predicted the low risk level for this one; If I didn't have his wisdom to help guide the decision, I'd not have launched.
@FlightChops local knowledge is a huge red flag. It is a cause of many a crash. I am surprised you defend the advice of a guy who says what Luke has in this video.
You touched very important topic, but I guess there's no good answer to it. Another point to note is that icing can be type-specific. If you get a PIREP from a Citation flying through cloud layer, they might report it as no icing at all. At the same time PA28 will have moderate. Maybe a good solution to it is to always have a Plan B and have an idea how to quickly escape icing condtion if it's too serious.
So many times I have flown into reported (that makes it 'known') icing but not found any icing myself. That doesn't make it right to launch into known icing. But clearly the term 'known' icing is a misnomer. We can certainly expect icing, but we might not. Therefor icing is a difficult beast to handle. It would have been prudent to find out the tops if at all possible for your departure. But that seemed unattainable for that airport that morning. I haven't heard you discuss your plan B, if you had icing that prevented you from climbing. What was your thoughts ?
I’ve never been to Steinbach south but I fly all over the area (professionally) can you not get centre on the ground there? Or alternatively pick up the clearance in the air before entering airspace? I can count on 1 hand the amount of time i’ve called on a phone to pick up a clearance in that area.
I haven’t seen a good interpretation from TC, and I figured since the majority of the viewers are from the US, it made sense to use the FAA interpretation.
I was thinking you were referring to “known icing”. If you’re asking about the “void time” discussion, which is the only other specific IFR procedural thing this video really talks about, I am fairly certain TC and the FAA are the same.
@FlightChops yep the void time thing is the same in the states. Although a lot of times they'll ask if you currently holding short so you don't have to scramble like in the video.
I’m a new Canadian ppl working on my night rating. Icing scares the shit out of me frost on wings after the plane is sitting we pull into hangout and I cancel the flight. There such little information on icing for new pilots. I’ve asked my instructor about it and others but there doesn’t seem to be much on what to expect when flying into known or unknown icing:/ could you do a video on it?
Hey congrats on the PPL! Honestly, icing scares me too - that's what this episode was mostly about - I'm still very conservative about getting anywhere near potential icing conditions. As for frost on the wings, yup, I've cancelled / delayed flights because of that too. I'm lucky to often have a hangar so that the plane isn't frozen when I get to it. This winter I might be ferrying a Super Cub a looooong way from Toronto to Alaska - if that happens, I'll be making content about these challenges.
What has GPS got to do with it? I started flying in 1971 there was no GPS for decades to come. Do you think No PPL IR flying was happening then? This includes decisions on icing.
@@FlightChops You should not rely on GPS, I spend decades flying IFR before GPS was invented. If you have engine issues immediately on departure you should know where you are heading to do your forced landing.A GPS is not going to help you, basic airmanship is.
Hey I thought it was a really good video. What I’m getting at is there wasn’t much mention to low layer clouds/fog and what your engine plan was. Did you brief the ils back in? Did you brief the field you were going to in an off field landing? Etc Once again great video I just would’ve loved to see that mentioned
Interesting to see how many instructor friends of yours have musical instruments in the background. Is there a correlation between pilots and musicians? :D
It's hard to generally answer "if I'd do it again" becasue all situations are different. This video shares a specific and deep conversation with an expert that has intimate local knowledge - Luke accurately predicted the low risk level for this one; If I didn't have his wisdom to help guide the decision, I'd not have launched. In future when facing a trip with any sort of proximately to forecast icing, I'd have to look at it on a case by case basis. But if you put my back in this exact situation again, yes I'd go.
@@FlightChopsI thought you could still takeoff if the field was ifr without a clearance if you’re in uncontrolled airspace. You just need a clearance before entering controlled.
Yes, you can take off VFR and get the clearance before entering IMC… to do that, you need time to make the VFR radio calls to tell traffic you are departing, and then switch frequencies and contact ATC for the clearance. Often times you need a certain minimum altitude to reach ATC, so even if you had time to do it while low, you may not reach them. Regardless, the conditions that day would not have given me time to do any of that safely. With the ceiling being at 500 AGL, I was in it with in a minute of leaving the ground, and even if I could reach them at 300 feet, I wasn’t going to level off that low to make the call.
Sorry to say this, but putting yourself in a condition without the available tools. "biking to the shop, 400 meters aways, I don't need my helmet". I have 3 helmets btw... If the unknown happens, then in retrospekt, I did not make the right choice. "oh we might be here for two weeks, "oh we have to rush". You have become comfortable and welcome to the club. Can we be on edge and vigilant all the time ? No but if it lines up then we talk about you in the past tense. As a completely bystander/viewer, you took an aircraft not suited for icing into possible icing environment. You winged it and got lucky ? On paper, welcome to my world. Can we mitigate all risk, no , but you did not mitigate what you could. Moron , heck no, the moron would have been dead a long time ago ...:)
Steve! It sounds a little out there. But just wondering why no one is talking about a quick meditation before a flight. I use it all the time to regain presence and to stop that "get there itis" ps-Amazing content as usual keep up the great work.
Thinking analytically, the decision should be based on: the rate of ice accretion, the duration of ice accretion, and the function of ice volume on airfoil versus its effect on lift/drag. If the first two are well known then the last part is the only unknown. If they're not, then the odds start to stack up. Can you get around and land fast enough if the ice accretion continues and you cannot climb? Again, that's based on the rate of accretion. Do you have a BRS, which saves your life if the airfoil cannot fly? It's a series of probabilities and what if's that should be carefully evaluated. It's not told in the video how well you knew these factors.
The problem is that the air you are flying in, or expect to fly in, is never "known" even if there are reports of icing or not. Thus you can't be analytical about it. The rate of accumulation can change by the second and keep compounding. Like the old guy said these airplanes, for the most part, are the same planes that were made in the 1960 so you can't rely on technology to save you. And I wouldn't even factor in BRS because that is full of folly. Forecast are for wide areas and even if there are no reports there are a million micro-climates that could cause significant ice. The only completely true scenario is that if there are visible clouds and close to freezing there is the potential for icing. The way to minimize risk is to use critical thinking skills, learn and evaluate all factors known, understand how the forecasters derived their forecast, and always have multiple realistic outs.
Does quality ADM factor in the length of time you may be grounded in a go/no go decision? I believe ADM at its best is accepting that however inconvenient the ‘no go’ may be, you make the decision in a vacuum and then deal with the consequences. Thanks for putting this out there. I’m ashamed of my ADM in several situations and it’s easy to be an arm chair quarterback. Best of luck
100% my hardline view in the video comes from having made bad decisions myself and witnessing friends and colleagues pay for similar divisions with their lives. The more experience I get the more cautious I get too. Scaring the crap out of yourself will do that. Have time to spare, go by air!
Great comment at the end of the video by MMC "mission" needs to be struck from the non-military pilot vocabulary. I am sure someone has commented already but it's worthwhile to hear it again. " All accident investigations are conducted in good weather."
@@FlightChops The algorithm is definitely a cruel mistress! Just like icing and get-there-itis, I've certainly blasted threw a thin OVC layer to get to sunshine on top in the winter with no issues, but there's always much consideration to be given to the many factors at play on a given day.
Aviation TH-cam is full of terrible safety videos, but this could be one of the worst. Nobody did anything particularly dangerous in it, but our friend's thinking is the most terrible anti-safety cope I've ever seen. The entire point of this video is that it's ok to break your personal minima because if you don't - you can't go. This is the most ridiculously dumb and dangerous argument to make, as the very freaking point of personal minima is to not freaking go even though you really want to. No, the risk doesn't become any smaller because "it's always like this here this time of the year"! There's this Ryan dude who's trying to explain it to him, but he gets one tenth of air time compared to the CFI who says hell yeah let's go. Ryan, you can't be this soft, you have to give it to him like it is, otherwise he'll never learn and he'll continue to put out this ridiculous crap to hundreds of thousands of other pilots. Jesus that was bad. Probably close second to a couple of dudes who were flying from Alaska over a mountain pass VFR in near-zero visibility - and the entire way they were talking about the dangers of get-there-itis and how safe they are.
I disagree, here's why: "a personal minimum" is is a good tool to keep you safe based on your comfort and skill level. Personal minimums are designed to be updated as you become more experienced and comfortable with flying. This is a *great* example of when it's time to increase your personal minimums to challenge yourself and become a better pilot. Steve just didn't decide "hey today's is the day I'm going to bust my personal mins". He felt like he was ready, then consulted not one but three experts (other pilots with higher personal mins than him) on the topic. He made a judgement call to challenge him self and it worked. He now has experience in similar situations and can confidently change his personal minimums accordingly. He didn't break any rules or laws (like your example of the pilots flying VFR Into IMC in Alaska). He became a better pilot and decided to share a great example of how to change your personal minimums and challenge your piloting skills safely with the rest of the world. These are the types of videos we need more of on the internet. There was no "cowboy" attitude. No "get-there-itits" (we had no deadline to be home and could have stayed days if we wanted to). I can name countless videos online that show this type of behaviour. This is not one of them.
@@blake.crosbyThe only way personal minimum is a useful concept is if you don't break it. Sure it needs to be updated every once in a while based on one's proficiency and experience (both up and down), but this is definitely not the way to do it. The dude said multiple times that he had a personal minimum set for the trip, and the only reason he broke it is because they would otherwise stay on the ground for weeks. He just came out and said it. Regarding "he did it and it worked". That is the most insane idea (also found in the video) I've ever heard. Based on this idea you can justify anything. You can go into a cloud VFR for 10 minutes and there's a good chance it will work most of the time. That's just crazy. Yes they didn't pick up any ice that one time and they broke out where they expected to, but so what? It can work another 100 times, and then it doesn't work on the 101st attempt and everyone is dead. The way you update your personal minima is based on skill level. If my personal minimum is 10kt crosswind component - I don't land with more. Then I go and practice with 8kt crosswind for a couple of flights, and when I feel I'm skillful and proficient enough to handle that - I will update my personal minimum to 12kt or 15kt. With ice like this - you can never update your personal minimum. Ice is always ice. When this dude goes into a layer that has potential icing in it - he relies on being able to break out in 500 feet and icing not being too bad. If it doesn't happen - there's no amount of skill that gets them out of it. It's just blind luck. With years of experience flying in ice you can develop a better understanding of weather and whether ice will be there under certain atmospheric conditions, and maybe you can adjust your personal minimum based on that, but that is definitely not what happened here. Lastly, watch a The Finer Points video on personal minima. That dude has a rule that a personal minimum cannot be updated on the day that we fly. Update it at home, then the next day you can use it. That's very smart. Otherwise your "update" is just going because you want to go, which is the exact reason why personal minima are needed.
"With years of experience flying in ice you can develop a better understanding of weather and whether ice will be there under certain atmospheric conditions, and maybe you can adjust your personal minimum based on that, but that is definitely not what happened here." *This, is absolutely what happened here* - I was leaning on Luke's extensive experience; during the preflight briefing we looked carefully and closely at the specific weather data that morning to make the adjustment to the personal minimum - I didn't do it independently out of convenience - If I was alone to decide relying on the experience level I had, I wasn't going - I also said that in the video. Anyway, the feedback is valid, even if delivered in a fairly non-constructive manner. All that said, I'm a lot less likely to respond well (or at all) to criticism on my own channel, that talks about me in the third person and sets the premise that I "put out ridiculous crap". I've made hundreds of flying episodes and reached millions of people - Do I get it right every time? Nope. But I try my best to add context, lean on experts, apply and adjust to feedback and issue corrections if I get something wrong. Regardless, there isn't going to be an ongoing series about flirting with icing. This was a one-off discussion, sharing a debrief on an experience. If you've got other issues with my content, and would like to offer some constructive criticism, I'm all ears.
@@FlightChopsfirst of all, my comment is not aimed at you (which is why I'm addressing you in the third person), it's aimed at other viewers. I called it crap because that's what I thought it was, I'm not really trying to get you to respond to my criticism, I'm making a point for other people to see. Without pushback, people tend to just gloss over the problem, and they are running the risk of repeating this line of thinking in their own flying. Here's the most constructive form of this criticism that you can ever get: at 2:50, you say "We had created personal minimums. One of the big ones was - I'm not going to fly into visible moisture if the freezing level is below the MEA. That's a smart personal minimum for IFR with an airplane that can't go into icing. The problem is... [if we strictly adhere to this personal minimum we won't be able to fly much in this particular neck of the woods during this time of year]". That's a direct quote and you repeated this idea multiple times. I can't be kind about this - that is the very definition of get-there-itis. That is exactly the opposite of why we need personal minima. A personal minimum is a tool that grounds us when we want to go but certain safety criterion is not met. You have recorded a full 18 minute video about how you broke the personal minima because you wanted to go; no other reason. This would still have been an awesome video if you drew appropriate conclusion from the experience; if you said you would never do it again, and that you learned how undue pressures influenced your decision causing you to break your personal minima. Discuss tools available to private pilots that help them stick to the minima, discuss accepting natural limitations of when and how we can fly single engine light airplanes. Instead, you have spent 99% of the time justifying your decision to break the minima by saying that "it's always like this here this time of year", and "if we don't fly we could be on the ground for 2 weeks". I'm very sorry, but you're basically saying that you're glad you broke the minima because get-there-itis. Therefore, I say this is the worst safety video ever. I don't see how there could be two opinions about this. The risk you exposed yourself to is not any smaller because it's always like that over there! If you (or the CFI who was with you) believes that freezing levels below MEA is an overly conservative personal minimum, and there's a better one - by all means, let's hear about it. But no-one has ever said that! No-one pushed against the minimum, the CFI just said it was ok to break it that one time! I mean come on, it's just a pure story of get-there-itis, from beginning to end. The other experienced pilot who straight up tells you to stick to your personal minimum gets 1% of air time. And the third pilot and the book author just ends up talking about generic safety concept without mentioning the actual situation at hand. Another highlight is you acknowledging that you can't pass a flight test with this plan. That's just golden how you're saying it's a terrible plan but you're still going to do it if someone tells you it's ok. There was a dude to tell you that's ok, so you went. Gold. Anyway, I think you get my point. I wasn't there, I don't know what actually happened, I can't get inside of your head to know what you are/were thinking, I'm just telling you why the video is terrible.
@alk672 I love your reply! We as professional aviators need to be pissed about a video like this. I lost one friend to an airplane icing up and don't want to lose another. Everyone who gets how bad this message is needs to be loud about it. Let's not lose any more pilots to senseless bad decision making being promoted by instructor pilots like Luke who don't have a lot of real life IFR experience.
You and your CFI friend are wrong this day. There is no grey area here. If you choose to fly into clouds at temperatures near or below freezing in a non-FIKI airplane, you have just begun a gamble with your life. I know it’s inconvenient to not be able to use your airplanes in these conditions but what I have said is the truth. Do not be suckered into icing conditions by stories of how a fellow pilot did this and survived. There are many others that did not. They all had a “good” plan and thought it would be alright, that they could get lower, find warmer air, that the clouds were not very thick, that there were not supposed to be cloud layers or that their airplane was a mythical beast that “carries ice well”. General Aviation piston aircraft are just expensive toys. Sorry. They are way way outside their capabilities if you fly them into ice. Also, your personal rule about the MEA assumes you can get back down to the MEA without declaring an emergency. When you do that because you iced up, you will officially be talking to someone about keeping your pilots license. Finally, FIKI does NOT cover all icing contingencies. Only the most likely. Severe icing, large water droplets or freezing precipitation will have FIKI GA airplanes falling out of the clouds just as quickly. FIKI GA airplanes buy you a bit more time in ice……that’s all.
@@FlightChops I enjoy the channel. Just got back into GA about a year ago. Just bought a FIKI single engine piston. It would be perfect on the day you were given in your video. It’s a TKS system so it’s time limited even under the lightest icing conditions. Regarding icing, anyone flying long enough knows that it’s unpredictable, even by the experts, and conditions change rapidly. Almost anywhere in the clouds , at temperatures near or below freezing , ice can accumulate at frightening rates. I have seen this myself over many years in all kinds of airplanes.
I flew into unreported icing conditions in a very old Cessna 310. Decided to climb above the clouds. The airplane barely made it to 12,000 ft. SCARED CRAP OUT OF ME.
Just talking with my CFII yesterday on this very subject. He and another IR student went through the clouds at CLOSE to the freezing mark. Tops were REPORTED low, but they were not that low. They started picking up ice and accelerated the climb. Then the climb rate started dropping. And kept dropping. The PA28 simply stopped climbing with full RPM so they diverted back and got under the layer. The whole trip back, the plane was buffeting. After landing, all the leading edge surfaces were coated. He said it was the most frightening experience of his career, and this is a guy that had total engine failure at 800ft. I am done with real IMC training until Spring.
Why would ANY "pilot" not be cautious when flying towards or near these conditions .?
Exactly. I hope this dude sees this comment. Because something worked out that one time - we can do it again? He can't be serious.
Great lessons learned, Steve.
Thank you for opening yourself up to criticism so others may learn from your mistakes.
what mistake? risk management is not a mistake bruh
@@idekav. - I'm ok with the feedback here - As expected, some are legitimately suggesting launching at all in those conditions was a mistake, even if it worked out.
Read through the other comments for some great insights.
I'm appreciative of the discussion this one is generating.
He doesn't think that was a mistake. He recorded a video explaining why it was completely fine because it worked out.
The concern I have; in this case you broke a rule you made and "got away" with it. This can lead to a gradual creep over time as you gain experience and confidence, to move that Go-No go line out until one day you go and it bites you. I totally understand why you decided to but I fear it could cloud your judgement in the future when each time you face a Go-No go situation it should be treated in isolation of previous decisions (since each is unique) - and yet it's the human condition to NOT do that.
This right here. If your minimums are negotiable, they aren't acting as minimums, and you've removed an accident prevention barrier.
Just a thought, "Good luck reinforces bad behavior". Not sure if this applies here, but worth considering.
I'd say that applies for sure.
It is always better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air, than in the air wishing you were on the ground.
After more than 13,000 hours I’ve recently had to take a healthy ribbing from friends who wondered why I sat on the ground for two days in Portland waiting for the weather to clear. The freezing level was 6000’ to 7000’ and I had to cruise at 6000’, and I could have said “well, I only have to cruise at 6000’ for 30 mins then I can descend to 3000’ when the mea is lower”, but in my mind if there’s a chance of getting into any ice I am not going flying in a non-Fiki aircraft. I actually had an FSS guy say to me “it’s so brief, you can always just declare an emergency”. I was shocked that someone would think that way.
Good for you to bring this into a video, but I honestly cringed when you said I’m gonna climb briefly through and descend briefly through ice. So many have gone before you that didn’t make it and took innocent people with them, that I hope you never question known ice again. Always look at the forecast with the most cynical outlook(from an eternal optimist)
No one knows how their airframe will handle any amount of ice. I flew a C421 into Winnipeg in my early days that was not clearing ice the way a Fiki plane should, and flew an ils to minimums at full power, tailstalling in the flare.
It really is a matter of ice and death.
There on no guarantees when it comes to ice and your warnings should be heeded when ever there are clouds and close to freezing. I remember once hiking in the clouds on a ridge at 6000 feet. The wind was coming over the ridge at around 10 mph. Under the pine trees there were two feet of ice cubes that looked just like the round ice cubes. Ice was accumulating on the pine needles and falling off at a good rate.
I just thought about how fast the ice would accumulate on a wing going 150 mph. I never want to be that person who finds themselves in a scenario where there is no way out. Especially in a Mooney.
Thanks for these detailed insights. And I’m amazed the FSS person gave you that advice. 😬
@@FlightChops love your willingness to share both the good and bad. We all make mistakes in judgement.🫡 hopefully, that’s how we learn.
Thought this was fab. Diving deep into decision making is exactly what GA needs and craves. Lots of different perspectives in your piece, which shows that it's not black/white. Well done Steve.
Thanks. Check out the comments for some solid insights and (mostly) constructive criticism on this one 🫡
I'm an instrument rated private pilot in Alaska and I will not knowingly fly into any visible moisture when it is at or below freezing. It can be frustrating because freezing levels here are often at MSL for 6 months of the year, and not much higher than 5000 ft the other 6 months. But the risk is simply too high. That said, thanks for posting and letting us in on your decision making process.
Thanks for that. And yeah, it’s gotta be tough to wait out so much weather in Alaska.
I highly admire your honesty. I know you are big on personal minimums, and it's something as I push through my training, I continue to always respect my personal minimums because we have always said, you talked about it, you made smart decisions when you came up with them - so respect them...
You have always been big on the pressures of "Get-There-itis" ... but this episode really pushes those concepts right to their limits... Clearly this was a Personal Minimums up against Get-There-Itis. This was then a PDM discussion. Interestingly as the discussion continued, you said "Well it was probably just 500" -- but what-if it was 1500? Ryan had a good point here.
One of the lessons I have always learned from you is the "Break the chain" rule when it comes to checklists. My personal rule, learned from you, was if I hit any form of stop or snag on a checklist, I always restart from the top.. Thanks for that.
Full admiration for being willing to display vulnerability on this one.
You asked at the end "This might have created more questions".... So here's one - yes you made it, yes it worked out - but after this entire discussion --- ignoring the part where it worked out and it was ok --- Do you think going was the right call?
This dude just recorded a video showing how he ignored his personal minima due to convenience, and somehow it was the right thing to do. Let's be real about what we just saw. 300k pilots will see this.
@@alk672 Ok, let's be real - that's what the entire video is about, he literally admitted that...
I think it is important to differentiate between ‘Known Icing’ and ‘Icing Conditions’. It is hard to predict known icing but we know that 100% of the time Icing can only exist in icing conditions which is visible moisture below the freezing level.
WOW! Excellent video. Excellent topic! I’m 81 years old with around 12,000 hours and using ALL the available weather tools I STILL find the weather is never what I thought it would be. Your mentor is correct - the weather is dynamic. It’s always changing
Steve, it has been an honour to work with you over the years. Thanks for your vulnerability which is the highest form of courage.
Ryan, I've enjoyed learning from you through Steve. I still hope to fly together someday and learn from you directly!
If you write down a personal minimum, then encounter something worse than that condition and fly anyway, it wasn’t really a personal minimum. And that means the REAL personal minimum is a mystery.
You can alter personal minimums over time, as experience and knowledge and competency expand, but that’s something you do at home, not in the cockpit.
I’ve had my instrument rating for less than a year, and one of the ways I recognize the limits of my experience is with personal minimums that are well in excess of the regulations. I have a no-go condition if the forecast freezing level is below the MEA on any route segment. I also won’t fly above the freezing level in anything other than severe-clear conditions.
I live in a part of the world where the surface air temp is literally never below 0°C and the winter freezing level is usually above 5000 AMSL, but even then I’ve had to scrub IFR flights in winter. On a couple of occasions I’ve gone VFR instead because it’s safer to fly over terrain in warm air below the IFR MEA than it is to risk ice above it.
The two most significant things I took away from IFR meteorology study were respect for ice and respect for thunderstorms. Our tiny fragile single-engine airplanes have no business being anywhere near either of those things.
As a private pilot, I don’t lose income if I don’t go, I can always say “No.” Ice is a huge “no” for me. I don’t know how you northerners do it!
Insightful video. I'm guessing the hardest videos to post might be the most valuable ones to watch. I've been watching your stuff since basically the beginning and this is one of my favorites.
Certainly it's a personal and subjective thing setting up your personal minimums. I'm not going to get into whether it was a good idea to launch or not, but I do think having local knowledge available from someone you trust is a valuable thing. Like you said, you've probably created more questions than were answered with this video!
Happy flying.
Thanks for watching to the end 👊
Good lessons on icing and IFR clearances. Instrument rated pilots make judgement calls, and they suffer the consequences of bad decisions. Contingency planning is key.
I’ve been flying ifr more than three years now and use ForFlight to file my ifr flight plans. I don’t call clearance until I’m at the runway ready to depart and I’ve called over an hour before my scheduled departure time and up to a few hours past the scheduled time. I think they delete them after two hours past scheduled time. But if you miss it by 2 hours all you have to do is file another plan through ForFlight. You should never rush any part of a take off especially in potentially icy or ifr conditions. If you miss your void time just call them back and get another one…
I was flying a Navajo with de-ice boots, 2000' AGL. A very thin layer of scud type stuff 8 miles from landing and I got a full load of ice almost instantly and the boots didn't take the ice off. I landed OK and looked at the wings there was about 3/4" of ice on the leading edge! Thankfully I was light in weight with no pax and 1/4 fuel tanks. I was in the ice for less than 1 minute! I used fly in Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and Canada and have never seen ice build up so fast!
Always glad to see you getting multiple opinions when you aren't sure on something like you seem to always try to do, and especially to see you keep both sides in the video for others to see it's not always a clear cut answer in aviation.
I appreciate that!
The most important thing is ALWAYS have a out and that might be checking the weather BEHIND you! Are there a lot of airports or are there long distances between airports. Is there a low MEA or a high MEA. Is it night where you can't see the cloud to avoid them. Are you going over mountains where the prevailing winds will pick up the moist air and freeze it. Will I have passengers that will be a distraction and subconsciously affect my decision making. When you start thinking this way you see just how simplistic personal minimums are.
I equate this to driving in winter. The Highway Patrol will tell you to slow down and leave it at that. However, if you are "going slow" around a corner but you panic brake you will slide off the road anyway. They say that because they have to make the message simple. Just like the FAA.
I would be careful with the gaining by experience by doing too. Critical thinking is what is really needed. It's always having realistic outs and being pessimistic and conservative. And always training for the worst case scenario because like the old guy said weather can never be completely predicted and can change at any moment.
I remember being at Steamboat Springs, Co. We had already been delayed a day due to icing in clouds type weather. I prepared the Mooney for us to go and we waited. There was a hole for us to climb out of. In which we did. I knew that we could fly the approach back in and would not pick up a lot of ice because it was a stratus layer and not too thick. Once we were on top it was stratus all the way as far as the eye could see.
I evaluated and decided to return while we still had the hole. Why? One was that I knew that a lot of times what looks like flat tops can be rising tops. I had a full load a passengers. If I was alone as the fuel was used my max ceiling would increase. Not the same with passengers. Two, there are not a lot of airports between me and my destination. So my "outs" would be limited and each leg would be more committing. Three, there are hi MEAs so a let down to below the clouds wouldn't be a option. Four, and maybe the most important was having passengers. Would my decision be influence by the pressure of taking care of my passenger. My passengers ended up taking the airlines back but they knew that this was a possibility from the beginning. This, to me, is what it means to be Pilot in Command.
When you look at it this way, I believe, you can see how lacking numerical personal minimums are.
Loved the different perspectives. Nice to see it's not always black and white. Great episode. Thank you FlightChops.
You hit the nail on the head. Challenging flying conditions like this are what make flying so hard. Not the technical aspect of flying the aircraft, but the decision making skills to go/no-go.
It took a couple days to get to his (a long story to be recounted later) and I knew it had been a while when you had revised the title before I got to it! For me, this brought to mind my own growth as a pilot once I started flying a lot, getting comfortable with cross country flights and beginning to face personal time deadlines. For me the issue was avoiding IFR, making sure I was both legal and safe. My trips to and from Minnesota and OSH took me into situations that I didn't think I'd want to be in, and it worked out, but had me wondering later. Flying in smoke that was technically VFR but practically almost IFR wasn't comfortable, but my experience level at that point told me that it was doable. I did it, and later felt ok about it because it broadened my confidence in my own abilities. But coming back from OSH, climbing above a broken layer that seemed to be gaining altitude and becoming less broken had me worried. It pushed me up to 10,000 feet for longer than I wanted to stay there and I wasn't absolutely sure I'd be able to get below it without penetrating clouds. It was summer and icing was not an issue; I knew staying on the gauges with a G3X was comfortable, but I didn't want to bust regs. Crossing over the northern tip of Lake Michigan was technically VFR but practically IFR; I could see the water below but there was no horizon due to smoke and haze. It all worked out both legally and safely, but the debrief gave me pause. Michael's advice was spot on: a wise pilot makes absolutely certain that he has more that one or two options available at all times. Feeling rushed is also an important concern, especially for me. When I'm rushed I make mistakes, so that's one of my personal minimums: If I'm feeling rushed, I'm not going. I have to be relaxed to fly right.
Yeah man - Smoke last year was a real problem for a lot of the summer!
Such a great episode, thanks Steve for opening up about this process and even the opposing view points and considerations. Great discussion and topics to consider. Some great mentors you've got there as well.
👊👍
0. good to circulate a video so people can see real-world decisions and mistakes rather than book-flying. that said, the comment system exists and i’m all the happier to chuck another useless 2¢ into the pit.
1. IFR strips stay in the system for 2 hours and are meaningless without calling and picking up the clearance. in other words, the ETD (note: *estimated* time of departure) on the strip is not important for anything other than strip expiration. if you’re worried about lost comms ETAs, just tell ATC when you actually departed and your revised ETA. you can even do this on your initial call.
2. stressing about a void time is pointless especially for an untowered field under these IMC conditions. realistically there’s few if any flights arriving or departing, so who cares if the airspace stays locked for 5, 10 or 15 minutes. if there is traffic, congrats to them! they legally have to have enough fuel on board to deal with the diversion - realistically they can stay in the hold for a couple mins. remember you can always pick up the clearance after the run up, or call back and extend. my cfii one time locked an untowered field for half an hour because there were no IFR flights in or out that morning and we needed the time. if the field is popular and that makes you nervous, stage the clearance later - i.e. holding short and ready to go. but honestly it’s same story as when you’re short final in a piston with a jet 5 miles out: THEY CAN WAIT.
3. too much rationalization; even FIKI aircraft stay out of ice. you made it thanks to dice rolls, not due to logic. what was the rush to ferry a 6-pack SEL aircraft thousands of miles in the winter? suppose you lose the engine for any reason while on top of a thicker icing layer later on the trip - not a lot of options then. the only thing in aviation that has an actual deadline is the people - and by that i mean: when we rush rush to meet a deadline, we die. the airplane doesn’t care that it got into the air 5 minutes later, and it honestly doesn’t care about being rapidly disassembled by terrain. it’s just metal.
I just wrote this for a pilot in a VeriEze that crashed but lived to tell about it. I think it applies here:
A pilot in command has to do more than just look at a forecast. If there are clouds and it's close to freezing there could be ice. If you are flying at night over unpopulated areas it's almost impossible to avoid clouds. If you are flying over mountains there can be uplifting pushing moist air into freezing levels and ice can accumulate in minutes. Usually the best place to be is back where there was no ice. Always have at least one out and always be a pessimist.
I think this is where "personal minimums" fail. Once you say you are not going to do something, ever, but you do you are in extremely dangerous territory. I use the Gordon Graham Risk Model. High Risk/High Frequency, High Risk/Low Frequency, Low Risk/High Frequency, Low Risk/Low Frequency, and Discretionary Time. With the HR/LF with little discretionary time to make a decision being the most dangerous. When you don't train and practice for something that is high risk and then are put into that type of scenario you are in extreme danger. This person didn't like going into this type of scenario thus once he pushed on into it he was not prepared for it. The best preparation is to be done on the ground not trying to figure it out in the airplane. He never once said what the risk could be or what he would do if he encountered such things. Since he said he didn't like IFR or night flying he probably never trained for that scenario.
If you are going to use planes for utility and cross country flight you have to expect you are going to get into these types of scenarios. And you better have preplanned what you are going to do. That includes telling any passengers that this isn't the airlines and that delays and overnight stays in hotels are very likely. As long as we are using planes for utility we must keep training for the worst case scenario. This is why I highly recommend Richard Collins IFR Flying by the season. So that we do scenario based decision making which is lacking in FAA and instructor training.
This one was interesting; two different views and Michael providing not answers but points to consider for yourself. My takeaway (other than completely agreeing that "mission" should be a curse word for civilians!) was that counting on the tops to be low was a roll of the dice (albeit probably a small one) and a way to mitigate that risk could have been having a solid plan of when to stop climbing and go back to the airport as an emergency. I think I heard that the weather was improving though. If the weather is improving, I prefer to wait (and have done that).
Thank you for this video. It was probably a difficult one to figure out how to tell the story in a constructive way but I think it shines among your original goal of a debriefing video to learn from.
the one and only time I've gotten into real icing was on my PVT checkride. And it wasn't me that did it. We had low ceilings in winter with freezing virga. So i was complying with cloud clearance requirements, which prevented us from getting to 3000ft AGL as the DPE told me to fly to. He got upset and took the controls and flew us right into the virga. Instantly coated the entire airplane in a thin layer of ice. Wings, tail, fuselage, windscreen. He gave me back the controls at this point and we went back to the airport and landed. I landed the plane covered in ice with only a 3inx3in opening in the windscreen. My CFI was furious. We put the plane into the airport's heated hangar, cleaned the ice off. We went back up and finished the checkride about 30min later, but this time the DPE didn't make me fly to 3000ft AGL and didn't challenge me again on that.
I passed, and my CFI and I flew home without issue under the clouds.
This is why you pick up the clearance after the run-up lol
Yeah I had it on speaker so Blake could be a part of it. But in future (especially in the cold first start of the day) I’m not doing that again 🤓
@@FlightChops great video btw I love your content😂
I won't lie, ice scares the hell out of me. Even in our op FIKI is for getting out of bad conditions not just plowing through them.
Steve! Been watching your channel since the very beginning, and it’s been a joy to grow alongside with you as I’ve progressed in my own aviation journey. I’m yet again reminded how small a world it is, as Michael Maya Charles (good ol’ “MMC”) has been a dear friend and an invaluable mentor of mine for a number of years. Glad you have him in your corner as well! He is the epitome of “old pilot” in the context of the ubiquitous “old pilots vs bold pilots” saying. 😉 Keep up the ARTFUL work, and enjoy the process 😎
Where do I send the check, @SkySherpa? 😉
Most of my IFR training flights with students were into non-tower airports and void clearances to get out. After doing it many times and truly learning the process, it is one of the best deals in aviation. It is just the opposite of a rush to get in the air if you organize it well.
When several say no problem and one lectures you, I’d call that a win, especially since you aren’t debriefing a forced landing due to icing. I lean on Luke here. It’s where he lives and flies for a living, and he’s no cowboy. You use the rest of the advice as you see fit. It was given without an agenda other than personal preference, and with the intent to give you useful information. The proximity of the information you receive from both ATC and mentors is if prime importance. Your insight has the highest value because you’re looking out a windshield at what you are deciding on. After that you can ask someone else who’s looking at it, then you can decide to ask someone who isn’t looking at it. I consider better or less better as descriptors for weather information as a driver with one less dimension of risk to face. No “bad” information, just “less useful” maybe.
You might have missed a very important part of this "advice giving" from mentors, @colinwallace5286. Most mentors worth their salt don't tell you WHAT to do, but help you become more aware of the PROCESS; the WHY and HOW we make those crucial decisions. That's not "Less Useful." In fact, it's critical for developing your own responses to tough decisions. Steve shared three different pilot's perspectives here to illustrate that there are always more things to consider when making these life-or-death choices, and usually, those disparate perspectives come from real-world experience.
I appreciate the insights and discussion with in the community that this one is generating.
really enjoyed this video -- with the different points of views, and learning opportunities ..
My father was a pilot but I am just a simulator pilot. I learned so much from your videos and other youtuber pilots and I appreciate that. As a fellow Canadian, thank you.
This is a good lesson. Personal minima are a before flight decision and should be dynamic. Hard personal minimums are in place to default to when you don't have time to gather and make a good decision. I spend a couple hundred hours a year in non-fiki planes in a part 91 environment and potential icing is the #1 cause for cancelled flights. I will not fly if there is ANY chance of icing conditions I would have to carry it to the ground. If you land with ice on the airframe, you are putting extra stress on your airframe and landing gear and you are effectively grounding yourself until you are deiced. If I'm going to climb or descend through a layer that may have icing, I make it priority to minimize exposure. Not accepting intermediate altitudes that expose me to visible moisture below freezing is one way to do that, small deviations or an entire route change is another. In the example here, waiting another couple hours MIGHT have meant a temperature increase or cloud dissipation.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this one.
I'm very curious what was your plan in case you needed to come back to the airport. You did not mention anything on that. Needing to come back would have kept you in the icing layer way longer than planned with now some extra other issue that forced the return and skud-running at 700ft to get into the airport with no instrument approach available.
And, I know it's backseat flying, you both have bluetooth headsets, why not call to get your clearance after run-up? When you're 90% ready to go. That way it's a "we have a relaxed 15min to finish getting ready and taxi out" and not "we have 15min to do the whole start, runup and taxi"
If we had to return earlier than the alternate, we’d have had to have flown a non GPS approach into one of the 3 local airports, so there were options… mind you we hadn’t briefed them. As for the clearance phone call being on speaker before start up, that was so Blake could hear it to be a part of that… it hadn’t occurred to me that we both could have had our headsets connected Bluetooth to the same phone - if that is possible, that’d have been a good idea.
Im an instructor and we fly in mountainous terrain with ground level averaging 4000-6000msl company policy is no flight into visible moisture with temperatures below 5f. Just not allowed or its a violation. super grateful for that rule. We fly c172s and its just never worth the risk.
seeing that cat tree behind Luke he's got to be a great guy!
Can confirm.
Very comprehensive look into decision making, thank you!
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To me it was a "No Go" as my minimums are set in stone if not they are worthless, I feel you had "Get thereitiss" and allowed outsider "Mentors" put Peer Pressure on you. I my being hard on you but I was with a friend, who was sloppy on his minima and decided to blast through a forcast thin icing layer, we had only just hit it and found it built very fast and was not the forcast 200ft but just over 1400ft, the aircraft climb performance was down to below acceptable minima by the time we came out on top. It took over 45mins to clear the ice and this cost us 2/3 of our planned contingancy fuel. To top it all off the destination airfield was in IMC and had a power out so could not recieve IFR traffic. This was reported to us late so we have a long divert and use the rest of the contigancy fuel plus some reserve. Alll to tight. "Thin layer you can blast through" and "It will be like this for day, so go for it" both are killers, if it is outside your minima don't do it, you are on a mission to keep yourself alove and support your family not ot make a smoking hole in the ground.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this one.
Really informative episode on this topic. Thanks
Glad you enjoyed it!
I heard a lot of justification/rationalization going on in this video. At the end of the day, you were successful in this flight, but is this success laying the foundation for more accepting a little more risk with subsequent flights, slowly building into a future accident? Only you know. I live in the New England area, we deal with ice all the time. It's part of flying as it probably is in your area. At first you said you thought the layer was a few thousand thick. Then as the challenges to your decisions came up, you said that it was about 500 feet thick, which looked accurate from the video, but it didn't sound like you knew that when you started. Ice is tough, I'm still working to gain an understanding of it. My take is that the forecasts are close to useless unless it is a case of a storm with definite ice. Those are an easy decision. The tough decisions are days like you flew in, you just don't know. I would have stayed on the ground in a non ice airplane for that day.
I've been flying fiki tks Cirrus. One flight comes to mind, I was flying through Maryland from Virginia, most of the flight was above an undercast, about 1,000 foot ceilings and about 4 or 5 thousand thick. I asked ATC to delay my descent until I could get below the ceiling, which they did. I got a PD descent, which I planned to spend minimal time in the clouds. Before I descended I asked for any ice pireps, ATC told me there had been a Bonanza that had ascended nearby through the clouds about 10 minutes before and reported trace to light ice. So I turned on the FIKI and into the clouds I went. By the time I broke out at about 1,000 feet I had over almost 1/2 inch of ice on the wing tips (non protected area). It would have been a big problem without the tks. You just never know.
I use the EZwxbrief.com product by Scott Dennstaedt, it's been great at predicting problem areas. He also has a book on using the skew-t which is very useful predicting ice, tops and bottoms in specific areas. Studying and learning this stuff is a time consuming endeavor. As pilots, we want and are used to quick answers on weather. There are no quick answers for ice. If you are going to mess around in or near it, take the time to learn the best way to find it and how to stay away.
Also remember, flying through a 2 or 3 thousand foot stratus layer can start out with trace ice at the bottom and build to moderate or severe ice near the top of the layer. It's tough to know.
I had a great cfii, one thing he continually drummed into me was never do anything flying instruments if it feels rushed. Don't do it. On the ground call back and tell them you need more time. In the air, key the mike and ask for delay vectors. The controllers don't care, I do it when ever I need to.
Fly safe.
Awesome video, Steve. I never want your videos to end. lol
😂👊🤝👍😎
Great video! Keep up the good work on the channel!
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Icing is weird man. Ive had numerous times in jets when an aircraft reported light icing, and going through that same layer, i got nothing. A lot of the time, i dont pick up ice in clouds below freezing. But sometimes you do. Thats the issue. In a single engine piston, absolutely would not fly into visible moisture below freezing. It just not worth the risk. Ice builds up super fast. Its truly terrifying how fast it can accumulate.
Excellent video! The only icing I'll interact with is on a cake. My personal minimums right now are a no go no matter what when it comes to icing in a GA aircraft.
Did you ever in your flying career experience icing?
Stop moving the goal post. If you have a go or no go personal minimum, then abide by it. Just because it’s didn’t happen this time doesn’t mean it won’t bite you the next. Wx is very dynamic. I’d rather not try my luck especially in aircraft without deicing equipment.
That’s fair feedback… but if you’re gonna modify a personal minimum you set without a ton of experience behind it, isn’t a good time/place to do that when you’ve got a senior instructor / flight test examiner working through it with you? The fact is, in this case, it played out exactly as Luke knew it would. 🤷✌️
the north shore of Lake Superior can be ugly if you are VFR!
One of the pilots have a bass, other has the amps... Dude you made this video based on the opinion of a New Orleans jazz band, you're not deceiving anybody! 🤣🤣🤣
P.S: NIce video, quite humble from your part to let others to learn from your experience, to put your own decisions "in the line of fire".
Why didn’t you start your engine and set everything up before getting your clearance?
Because I wanted the phone on speaker for Blake to be able to hear it - he’s working on his rating and wanted the practice copying clearances - I didn’t think it was going to be so tight.
I was so shocked listening to this I had to watch it again. You have 2 great advisors but Luke. Wtf? Comments like if you don't go now you won't get out, I knew it wouldn't be thick? People die every year because of horrible instructor advice like that. An airplane with no anti/de ice equipment should always think of known ice any time in imc below freezing level.
Thanks for adding your thoughts about this one.
I read somewhere that no GA aircraft is certified for flight into known icing, only into "known icing conditions". Seems the liability of certifying safety in actual ice would be way to high, so I was told that they only certify for conditions where icing could occur. A fine line drawn in the fine print, but I could be wrong. The FIKI term is actually a misleading or at least incomplete statement.
Very very helpful. Thank you!
The one thing here that people are not saying is local knowledge..... Luke knows what to see and expect... If there is a deviation from that.... Turn back! I would never dream of mountain flying without somebody local for the first few times. I live in an area with the craziest atc ( two busy commercial towers). I don't care now because i know where to go, but when i started i carried Passengers with local knowledge until i learned. It's the same with weather. We are getting stuck on "icing". But icing should be replaced by any extreme thing .
Local knowledge....look up those words with airplane crash.
@@funinflightfyi. That wasn't meant to be rude... Just trying to learn.... Could have come off wrong.
one thing i cannot stand is the stupidity that is the bullying online other pilots do when they think something was “bad”. just because you barely studied enough to understand the weather theory for checkride does not mean 100 ft of FOG is dangerous, “people are afraid of things they cannot understand”. if you TRULY FUCKING STUDIED you would understand weather past your shitty written test score, you people are the type to cancel a completely safe flight because of your unwillingness to actually try to have risk management, whats the matter your cfi isnt there to tell you whats safe or whats not? risk management comes from loads of studying and real world understanding, which leads to real world experience. fuck the naysayers, this flight was absolutely safe in all its manner, and i think the approach you took into carefully making the video as if you did something wrong is foolish, i know you as a youtuber are scared of backlash, but as a pilot do not ever get on yourself like that dude, yeah learn from your mistakes but this isnt a mistake, its just a simple flight with a little risk that was carefully managed. jesus.
I had to manually approve this one because TH-cam flagged it as “likely inappropriate” and held it for review. 😬
I don’t like to remove comments that are engaging in constructive debate and I appreciate your support for the story we are trying to tell here - but I also don’t entirely disagree with why the comment was filtered as the tone is harsh - it’s a family show over here 🤓
The FAA has been ridiculous with regard to known/forecast icing, something like that. I live in a warm part of the country so it doesn't affect me but it's worth double-checking.
i live in a warm part too but it still certainly impacts us! even on days when the freezing level is at 6,000 feet it can be enough to scrub an ifr flight! and we’ve had days here where it’s dropped to 3-4k
Plane Jane being called "non-thiccy" is hilarious.
*non-FIKI 🤓
"if we don't do the flight now, it's going to be a long time until we can, so let's just pretend we're not 100% sure if there's ice or not, and blast through this visible moisture there suspiciously close to 0*" sure sounds like the result of a few different hazardous attitudes, if you ask me.
This single sentence assessment is fair, when looking at the situation from a very basic superficial level.
The video shares a deeper conversation with an expert that has intimate local knowledge - Luke accurately predicted the low risk level for this one; If I didn't have his wisdom to help guide the decision, I'd not have launched.
@FlightChops local knowledge is a huge red flag. It is a cause of many a crash. I am surprised you defend the advice of a guy who says what Luke has in this video.
You touched very important topic, but I guess there's no good answer to it. Another point to note is that icing can be type-specific. If you get a PIREP from a Citation flying through cloud layer, they might report it as no icing at all. At the same time PA28 will have moderate.
Maybe a good solution to it is to always have a Plan B and have an idea how to quickly escape icing condtion if it's too serious.
For sure PIREPs are type specific and that is a huge variable... and as Michael says, we really need a plan C as well as a Plan B.
Void time is just a tool for you to use and the traffic control. Just a thought why is there a Pilot in Command (PIC) ? Good issue to talk about!
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So many times I have flown into reported (that makes it 'known') icing but not found any icing myself. That doesn't make it right to launch into known icing. But clearly the term 'known' icing is a misnomer. We can certainly expect icing, but we might not.
Therefor icing is a difficult beast to handle. It would have been prudent to find out the tops if at all possible for your departure. But that seemed unattainable for that airport that morning.
I haven't heard you discuss your plan B, if you had icing that prevented you from climbing. What was your thoughts ?
I’ve never been to Steinbach south but I fly all over the area (professionally) can you not get centre on the ground there? Or alternatively pick up the clearance in the air before entering airspace? I can count on 1 hand the amount of time i’ve called on a phone to pick up a clearance in that area.
Same weather we get 250 days a year 😮🇬🇧
Don’t wanna call for clearance? Just squawk VFR 😏
I'd love to hear what Jason Miller would have to say on this one.
If you wouldn't fly it on a checkride, you shouldn't fly it at ALL.
Fair.
Steve, it appears you're citing FAA regs for a flight in Canada. Are TC's IFR procedures the same?
I haven’t seen a good interpretation from TC, and I figured since the majority of the viewers are from the US, it made sense to use the FAA interpretation.
I was thinking you were referring to “known icing”. If you’re asking about the “void time” discussion, which is the only other specific IFR procedural thing this video really talks about, I am fairly certain TC and the FAA are the same.
@FlightChops yep the void time thing is the same in the states. Although a lot of times they'll ask if you currently holding short so you don't have to scramble like in the video.
@@FlightChops I haven't earned an instrument ticket yet, but thought it curious on both accounts. Thanks for clarifying your thinking!
I’m a new Canadian ppl working on my night rating. Icing scares the shit out of me frost on wings after the plane is sitting we pull into hangout and I cancel the flight. There such little information on icing for new pilots. I’ve asked my instructor about it and others but there doesn’t seem to be much on what to expect when flying into known or unknown icing:/ could you do a video on it?
Hey congrats on the PPL! Honestly, icing scares me too - that's what this episode was mostly about - I'm still very conservative about getting anywhere near potential icing conditions. As for frost on the wings, yup, I've cancelled / delayed flights because of that too. I'm lucky to often have a hangar so that the plane isn't frozen when I get to it. This winter I might be ferrying a Super Cub a looooong way from Toronto to Alaska - if that happens, I'll be making content about these challenges.
Where are you going to punch through It was your question Ryan, good question, STEVE learned to skew-t chart, the chart gives you 90% of the answer
My question. Was there another local airport VFR? You had no gps. What were you going to do with an engine issues on departure?
What has GPS got to do with it? I started flying in 1971 there was no GPS for decades to come. Do you think No PPL IR flying was happening then? This includes decisions on icing.
Yeah, the lack of GPS doesn’t preclude IFR alternate planning, it just reduces the options.
@@FlightChops You should not rely on GPS, I spend decades flying IFR before GPS was invented. If you have engine issues immediately on departure you should know where you are heading to do your forced landing.A GPS is not going to help you, basic airmanship is.
@@classicraceruk1337are you replying to me? I am saying the same thing. I was not relying on GPS, and I didn’t have one in that plane.
Hey I thought it was a really good video.
What I’m getting at is there wasn’t much mention to low layer clouds/fog and what your engine plan was. Did you brief the ils back in? Did you brief the field you were going to in an off field landing? Etc
Once again great video I just would’ve loved to see that mentioned
Interesting to see how many instructor friends of yours have musical instruments in the background. Is there a correlation between pilots and musicians? :D
Seems so. 😎 Michael is very musical, and Luke Plays the guitar and I play the drums.
I flew gliders and play the guitar. coincidence?@@FlightChops
There does seem to be a very strong correlation between the artful pursuit of music and flying. Athletics, too.
@@FlightChops Maybe we should start a band! 😜
So Steve, if you were faced with the same situation today, would you make the same decision? Or how would you have changed it?
Great question! Beware of confirmation bias.
I guess I'm wondering now that he has more real IFR experience if that changes his outlook compared to when he did this flight@@ryanvh
It's hard to generally answer "if I'd do it again" becasue all situations are different. This video shares a specific and deep conversation with an expert that has intimate local knowledge - Luke accurately predicted the low risk level for this one; If I didn't have his wisdom to help guide the decision, I'd not have launched. In future when facing a trip with any sort of proximately to forecast icing, I'd have to look at it on a case by case basis. But if you put my back in this exact situation again, yes I'd go.
Great video. As far as the void time, could you not just depart if it’s uncontrolled and then pick up a clearance airborne?
The field was IFR. I was into the soup at about 500 AGL.
@@FlightChopsI thought you could still takeoff if the field was ifr without a clearance if you’re in uncontrolled airspace. You just need a clearance before entering controlled.
Yes, you can take off VFR and get the clearance before entering IMC… to do that, you need time to make the VFR radio calls to tell traffic you are departing, and then switch frequencies and contact ATC for the clearance. Often times you need a certain minimum altitude to reach ATC, so even if you had time to do it while low, you may not reach them. Regardless, the conditions that day would not have given me time to do any of that safely. With the ceiling being at 500 AGL, I was in it with in a minute of leaving the ground, and even if I could reach them at 300 feet, I wasn’t going to level off that low to make the call.
@@FlightChopsahh makes total sense. Just cause you’re allowed to do it doesn’t mean you should. Thanks for the response!
Very informative video! I dont have you down as a moron. Good job.
Sorry to say this, but putting yourself in a condition without the available tools. "biking to the shop, 400 meters aways, I don't need my helmet". I have 3 helmets btw...
If the unknown happens, then in retrospekt, I did not make the right choice. "oh we might be here for two weeks, "oh we have to rush". You have become comfortable and welcome to the club. Can we be on edge and vigilant all the time ? No but if it lines up then we talk about you in the past tense.
As a completely bystander/viewer, you took an aircraft not suited for icing into possible icing environment. You winged it and got lucky ? On paper, welcome to my world.
Can we mitigate all risk, no , but you did not mitigate what you could. Moron , heck no, the moron would have been dead a long time ago ...:)
Steve! It sounds a little out there. But just wondering why no one is talking about a quick meditation before a flight. I use it all the time to regain presence and to stop that "get there itis" ps-Amazing content as usual keep up the great work.
Yeah that's something we all could afford to think about more.
Thinking analytically, the decision should be based on: the rate of ice accretion, the duration of ice accretion, and the function of ice volume on airfoil versus its effect on lift/drag. If the first two are well known then the last part is the only unknown. If they're not, then the odds start to stack up. Can you get around and land fast enough if the ice accretion continues and you cannot climb? Again, that's based on the rate of accretion. Do you have a BRS, which saves your life if the airfoil cannot fly? It's a series of probabilities and what if's that should be carefully evaluated. It's not told in the video how well you knew these factors.
The problem is that the air you are flying in, or expect to fly in, is never "known" even if there are reports of icing or not. Thus you can't be analytical about it. The rate of accumulation can change by the second and keep compounding. Like the old guy said these airplanes, for the most part, are the same planes that were made in the 1960 so you can't rely on technology to save you. And I wouldn't even factor in BRS because that is full of folly. Forecast are for wide areas and even if there are no reports there are a million micro-climates that could cause significant ice. The only completely true scenario is that if there are visible clouds and close to freezing there is the potential for icing.
The way to minimize risk is to use critical thinking skills, learn and evaluate all factors known, understand how the forecasters derived their forecast, and always have multiple realistic outs.
Nice video.
Does quality ADM factor in the length of time you may be grounded in a go/no go decision? I believe ADM at its best is accepting that however inconvenient the ‘no go’ may be, you make the decision in a vacuum and then deal with the consequences.
Thanks for putting this out there. I’m ashamed of my ADM in several situations and it’s easy to be an arm chair quarterback. Best of luck
100% my hardline view in the video comes from having made bad decisions myself and witnessing friends and colleagues pay for similar divisions with their lives. The more experience I get the more cautious I get too. Scaring the crap out of yourself will do that. Have time to spare, go by air!
Great comment at the end of the video by MMC "mission" needs to be struck from the non-military pilot vocabulary. I am sure someone has commented already but it's worthwhile to hear it again. " All accident investigations are conducted in good weather."
I prefer the original title lol. But this is undoubtedly another great learning experience!
Haha - thanks yeah - I might change it back. Been trying to make the algorithm happy (with little success)
@@FlightChops The algorithm is definitely a cruel mistress! Just like icing and get-there-itis, I've certainly blasted threw a thin OVC layer to get to sunshine on top in the winter with no issues, but there's always much consideration to be given to the many factors at play on a given day.
Aviation TH-cam is full of terrible safety videos, but this could be one of the worst. Nobody did anything particularly dangerous in it, but our friend's thinking is the most terrible anti-safety cope I've ever seen. The entire point of this video is that it's ok to break your personal minima because if you don't - you can't go. This is the most ridiculously dumb and dangerous argument to make, as the very freaking point of personal minima is to not freaking go even though you really want to. No, the risk doesn't become any smaller because "it's always like this here this time of the year"!
There's this Ryan dude who's trying to explain it to him, but he gets one tenth of air time compared to the CFI who says hell yeah let's go. Ryan, you can't be this soft, you have to give it to him like it is, otherwise he'll never learn and he'll continue to put out this ridiculous crap to hundreds of thousands of other pilots. Jesus that was bad. Probably close second to a couple of dudes who were flying from Alaska over a mountain pass VFR in near-zero visibility - and the entire way they were talking about the dangers of get-there-itis and how safe they are.
I disagree, here's why:
"a personal minimum" is is a good tool to keep you safe based on your comfort and skill level. Personal minimums are designed to be updated as you become more experienced and comfortable with flying.
This is a *great* example of when it's time to increase your personal minimums to challenge yourself and become a better pilot. Steve just didn't decide "hey today's is the day I'm going to bust my personal mins". He felt like he was ready, then consulted not one but three experts (other pilots with higher personal mins than him) on the topic.
He made a judgement call to challenge him self and it worked. He now has experience in similar situations and can confidently change his personal minimums accordingly.
He didn't break any rules or laws (like your example of the pilots flying VFR Into IMC in Alaska). He became a better pilot and decided to share a great example of how to change your personal minimums and challenge your piloting skills safely with the rest of the world.
These are the types of videos we need more of on the internet. There was no "cowboy" attitude. No "get-there-itits" (we had no deadline to be home and could have stayed days if we wanted to). I can name countless videos online that show this type of behaviour. This is not one of them.
@@blake.crosbyThe only way personal minimum is a useful concept is if you don't break it. Sure it needs to be updated every once in a while based on one's proficiency and experience (both up and down), but this is definitely not the way to do it. The dude said multiple times that he had a personal minimum set for the trip, and the only reason he broke it is because they would otherwise stay on the ground for weeks. He just came out and said it.
Regarding "he did it and it worked". That is the most insane idea (also found in the video) I've ever heard. Based on this idea you can justify anything. You can go into a cloud VFR for 10 minutes and there's a good chance it will work most of the time. That's just crazy. Yes they didn't pick up any ice that one time and they broke out where they expected to, but so what? It can work another 100 times, and then it doesn't work on the 101st attempt and everyone is dead.
The way you update your personal minima is based on skill level. If my personal minimum is 10kt crosswind component - I don't land with more. Then I go and practice with 8kt crosswind for a couple of flights, and when I feel I'm skillful and proficient enough to handle that - I will update my personal minimum to 12kt or 15kt. With ice like this - you can never update your personal minimum. Ice is always ice. When this dude goes into a layer that has potential icing in it - he relies on being able to break out in 500 feet and icing not being too bad. If it doesn't happen - there's no amount of skill that gets them out of it. It's just blind luck. With years of experience flying in ice you can develop a better understanding of weather and whether ice will be there under certain atmospheric conditions, and maybe you can adjust your personal minimum based on that, but that is definitely not what happened here.
Lastly, watch a The Finer Points video on personal minima. That dude has a rule that a personal minimum cannot be updated on the day that we fly. Update it at home, then the next day you can use it. That's very smart. Otherwise your "update" is just going because you want to go, which is the exact reason why personal minima are needed.
"With years of experience flying in ice you can develop a better understanding of weather and whether ice will be there under certain atmospheric conditions, and maybe you can adjust your personal minimum based on that, but that is definitely not what happened here."
*This, is absolutely what happened here*
- I was leaning on Luke's extensive experience; during the preflight briefing we looked carefully and closely at the specific weather data that morning to make the adjustment to the personal minimum - I didn't do it independently out of convenience - If I was alone to decide relying on the experience level I had, I wasn't going - I also said that in the video.
Anyway, the feedback is valid, even if delivered in a fairly non-constructive manner.
All that said, I'm a lot less likely to respond well (or at all) to criticism on my own channel, that talks about me in the third person and sets the premise that I "put out ridiculous crap".
I've made hundreds of flying episodes and reached millions of people - Do I get it right every time? Nope.
But I try my best to add context, lean on experts, apply and adjust to feedback and issue corrections if I get something wrong.
Regardless, there isn't going to be an ongoing series about flirting with icing. This was a one-off discussion, sharing a debrief on an experience.
If you've got other issues with my content, and would like to offer some constructive criticism, I'm all ears.
@@FlightChopsfirst of all, my comment is not aimed at you (which is why I'm addressing you in the third person), it's aimed at other viewers. I called it crap because that's what I thought it was, I'm not really trying to get you to respond to my criticism, I'm making a point for other people to see. Without pushback, people tend to just gloss over the problem, and they are running the risk of repeating this line of thinking in their own flying.
Here's the most constructive form of this criticism that you can ever get: at 2:50, you say "We had created personal minimums. One of the big ones was - I'm not going to fly into visible moisture if the freezing level is below the MEA. That's a smart personal minimum for IFR with an airplane that can't go into icing. The problem is... [if we strictly adhere to this personal minimum we won't be able to fly much in this particular neck of the woods during this time of year]". That's a direct quote and you repeated this idea multiple times. I can't be kind about this - that is the very definition of get-there-itis. That is exactly the opposite of why we need personal minima. A personal minimum is a tool that grounds us when we want to go but certain safety criterion is not met. You have recorded a full 18 minute video about how you broke the personal minima because you wanted to go; no other reason.
This would still have been an awesome video if you drew appropriate conclusion from the experience; if you said you would never do it again, and that you learned how undue pressures influenced your decision causing you to break your personal minima. Discuss tools available to private pilots that help them stick to the minima, discuss accepting natural limitations of when and how we can fly single engine light airplanes. Instead, you have spent 99% of the time justifying your decision to break the minima by saying that "it's always like this here this time of year", and "if we don't fly we could be on the ground for 2 weeks". I'm very sorry, but you're basically saying that you're glad you broke the minima because get-there-itis. Therefore, I say this is the worst safety video ever. I don't see how there could be two opinions about this. The risk you exposed yourself to is not any smaller because it's always like that over there!
If you (or the CFI who was with you) believes that freezing levels below MEA is an overly conservative personal minimum, and there's a better one - by all means, let's hear about it. But no-one has ever said that! No-one pushed against the minimum, the CFI just said it was ok to break it that one time! I mean come on, it's just a pure story of get-there-itis, from beginning to end. The other experienced pilot who straight up tells you to stick to your personal minimum gets 1% of air time. And the third pilot and the book author just ends up talking about generic safety concept without mentioning the actual situation at hand.
Another highlight is you acknowledging that you can't pass a flight test with this plan. That's just golden how you're saying it's a terrible plan but you're still going to do it if someone tells you it's ok. There was a dude to tell you that's ok, so you went. Gold.
Anyway, I think you get my point. I wasn't there, I don't know what actually happened, I can't get inside of your head to know what you are/were thinking, I'm just telling you why the video is terrible.
@alk672 I love your reply! We as professional aviators need to be pissed about a video like this. I lost one friend to an airplane icing up and don't want to lose another. Everyone who gets how bad this message is needs to be loud about it. Let's not lose any more pilots to senseless bad decision making being promoted by instructor pilots like Luke who don't have a lot of real life IFR experience.
You and your CFI friend are wrong this day. There is no grey area here. If you choose to fly into clouds at temperatures near or below freezing in a non-FIKI airplane, you have just begun a gamble with your life. I know it’s inconvenient to not be able to use your airplanes in these conditions but what I have said is the truth. Do not be suckered into icing conditions by stories of how a fellow pilot did this and survived. There are many others that did not. They all had a “good” plan and thought it would be alright, that they could get lower, find warmer air, that the clouds were not very thick, that there were not supposed to be cloud layers or that their airplane was a mythical beast that “carries ice well”. General Aviation piston aircraft are just expensive toys. Sorry. They are way way outside their capabilities if you fly them into ice. Also, your personal rule about the MEA assumes you can get back down to the MEA without declaring an emergency. When you do that because you iced up, you will officially be talking to someone about keeping your pilots license. Finally, FIKI does NOT cover all icing contingencies. Only the most likely. Severe icing, large water droplets or freezing precipitation will have FIKI GA airplanes falling out of the clouds just as quickly. FIKI GA airplanes buy you a bit more time in ice……that’s all.
Insights appreciated.
@@FlightChops I enjoy the channel. Just got back into GA about a year ago. Just bought a FIKI single engine piston. It would be perfect on the day you were given in your video. It’s a TKS system so it’s time limited even under the lightest icing conditions. Regarding icing, anyone flying long enough knows that it’s unpredictable, even by the experts, and conditions change rapidly. Almost anywhere in the clouds , at temperatures near or below freezing , ice can accumulate at frightening rates. I have seen this myself over many years in all kinds of airplanes.
First! :)
🏅
I flew into unreported icing conditions in a very old Cessna 310. Decided to climb above the clouds. The airplane barely made it to 12,000 ft. SCARED CRAP OUT OF ME.
Wow yeah, that’s scary.
One thing I always say, just because you have the rating, doesn’t mean you should use it. Good learning experience this
This is true.
Question did I see your orange car going south on 95 in MA last Sat?